3.

31 PERÚ: POBLACIÓN TOTAL PROYECTADA AL 30 DE JUNIO DE CADA AÑO, SEGÚN

DEPARTAMENTO, PROVINCIA Y DISTRITO, 2018 - 2020

Población al 30 de junio
Provincia y Distrito
2018 2019 2020
Lima Metropolitana 1/ 10,180,641 10,416,139 10,628,470

Provincia de Lima 9,256,429 9,476,975 9,674,755

Lima 271,324 269,769 267,379

Ancón 70,294 76,357 82,677
Ate 633,470 652,900 670,818
Barranco 35,467 35,745 35,915
Breña 90,920 92,153 93,111
Carabayllo 361,168 380,890 400,414
Chaclacayo 43,503 43,897 44,157
Chorrillos 342,762 349,855 355,978
Cieneguilla 36,509 37,815 39,055
Comas 557,093 566,314 573,884
El Agustino 213,968 218,277 221,974
Independencia 219,569 221,551 222,850
Jesús María 78,791 80,377 81,743
La Molina 154,950 157,820 160,244
La Victoria 188,588 188,900 188,619
Lince 58,668 59,213 59,578
Los Olivos 345,159 349,100 351,983
Lurigancho 260,050 271,822 283,231
Lurin 99,924 104,770 109,506
Magdalena del Mar 62,406 63,856 65,139
Magdalena Vieja 90,244 92,250 94,010
Miraflores 104,334 106,735 108,855
Pachacámac 126,129 134,104 142,133
Pucusana 15,421 16,032 16,615
Puente Piedra 362,799 379,550 395,819
Punta Hermosa 17,876 19,966 22,230
Punta Negra 7,652 7,955 8,243
Rímac 178,962 179,892 180,260
San Bartolo 8,147 8,442 8,722
San Borja 122,913 125,183 127,102
San Isidro 65,861 66,878 67,703
San Juan de Lurigancho 1,123,889 1,152,258 1,177,629
San Juan de Miraflores 402,989 408,538 412,865
San Luis 55,410 55,688 55,793
San Martín de Porres 712,545 729,268 744,050
San Miguel 164,836 169,282 173,309
Santa Anita 214,625 218,514 221,776
Santa María del Mar 1,067 1,106 1,142
Santa Rosa 31,021 34,361 37,940
Santiago de Surco 385,178 397,082 408,086
Surquillo 98,159 99,397 100,339
Villa El Salvador 415,391 420,278 423,887
Villa María del Triunfo 426,398 432,835 437,992

1/ Lima Metropolitana está conformada por la provincia de Lima.

Estimaciones y Proyecciones de Población por Sexo, según
Departamento, Provincia y Distrito, 2000-2015 - Boletín Especial Nº
3.31 PERÚ: POBLACIÓN TOTAL PROYECTADA AL 30 DE JUNIO DE CADA AÑO, SEGÚN
DEPARTAMENTO, PROVINCIA Y DISTRITO, 2018 - 2020

Año 0 Año 1 Año 2 Año 3 Año 4 Año 5

Provincia y Distrito
2020 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Lima Metropolitana 1/ 10,628,470 30,716,278 52,217,673 88,770,044 150,909,075 256,545,428 436,127,228
Provincia de Lima 9,674,755 27,960,042 47,532,071 80,804,521 137,367,686 233,525,066 396,992,613
Lima 267,379 772,725 1,313,633 2,233,176 3,796,399 6,453,879 10,971,594
Ancón 82,677 238,937 406,192 690,527 1,173,895 1,995,622 3,392,557
Ate 670,818 1,938,664 3,295,729 5,602,739 9,524,656 16,191,916 27,526,257
Barranco 35,915 103,794 176,450 299,966 509,942 866,901 1,473,731
Breña 93,111 269,091 457,454 777,672 1,322,043 2,247,473 3,820,704
Carabayllo 400,414 1,157,196 1,967,234 3,344,298 5,685,306 9,665,021 16,430,535
Chaclacayo 44,157 127,614 216,943 368,804 626,966 1,065,843 1,811,932
Chorrillos 355,978 1,028,776 1,748,920 2,973,164 5,054,379 8,592,444 14,607,154
Cieneguilla 39,055 112,869 191,877 326,191 554,525 942,693 1,602,578
Comas 573,884 1,658,525 2,819,492 4,793,137 8,148,332 13,852,165 23,548,680
El Agustino 221,974 641,505 1,090,558 1,853,949 3,151,713 5,357,913 9,108,452
Independencia 222,850 644,037 1,094,862 1,861,265 3,164,151 5,379,057 9,144,397
Jesús María 81,743 236,237 401,603 682,726 1,160,634 1,973,077 3,354,231
La Molina 160,244 463,105 787,279 1,338,374 2,275,236 3,867,901 6,575,431
La Victoria 188,619 545,109 926,685 1,575,365 2,678,120 4,552,804 7,739,767
Lince 59,578 172,180 292,707 497,601 845,922 1,438,068 2,444,716
Los Olivos 351,983 1,017,231 1,729,292 2,939,797 4,997,655 8,496,014 14,443,224
Lurigancho 283,231 818,538 1,391,514 2,365,574 4,021,475 6,836,508 11,622,063
Lurin 109,506 316,472 538,003 914,605 1,554,829 2,643,209 4,493,455
Magdalena del Mar 65,139 188,252 320,028 544,047 924,881 1,572,297 2,672,905
Pueblo libre 94,010 271,689 461,871 785,181 1,334,808 2,269,173 3,857,594
Miraflores 108,855 314,591 534,805 909,168 1,545,585 2,627,495 4,466,742
Pachacámac 142,133 410,764 698,299 1,187,109 2,018,085 3,430,745 5,832,267
Pucusana 16,615 48,017 81,629 138,770 235,909 401,046 681,778
Puente Piedra 395,819 1,143,917 1,944,659 3,305,920 5,620,064 9,554,108 16,241,984
Punta Hermosa 22,230 64,245 109,216 185,667 315,634 536,578 912,183
Punta Negra 8,243 23,822 40,498 68,846 117,039 198,966 338,242
Rímac 180,260 520,951 885,617 1,505,550 2,559,434 4,351,038 7,396,765
San Bartolo 8,722 25,207 42,851 72,847 123,840 210,528 357,897
San Borja 127,102 367,325 624,452 1,061,569 1,804,667 3,067,933 5,215,487
San Isidro 67,703 195,662 332,625 565,462 961,286 1,634,186 2,778,116
San Juan de Lurigancho 1,177,629 3,403,348 5,785,691 9,835,675 16,720,648 28,425,101 48,322,672
San Juan de Miraflores 412,865 1,193,180 2,028,406 3,448,290 5,862,093 9,965,557 16,941,448
San Luis 55,793 161,242 274,111 465,989 792,181 1,346,707 2,289,403
San Martín de Porres 744,050 2,150,305 3,655,518 6,214,380 10,564,446 17,959,558 30,531,249
San Miguel 173,309 500,863 851,467 1,447,494 2,460,740 4,183,258 7,111,539
Santa Anita 221,776 640,933 1,089,585 1,852,295 3,148,902 5,353,134 9,100,327
Santa María del Mar 1,142 3,300 5,611 9,538 16,215 27,565 46,861
Santa Rosa 37,940 109,647 186,399 316,879 538,694 915,779 1,556,825
Santiago de Surco 408,086 1,179,369 2,004,927 3,408,375 5,794,238 9,850,204 16,745,347
Surquillo 100,339 289,980 492,966 838,041 1,424,670 2,421,940 4,117,297
Villa El Salvador 423,887 1,225,033 2,082,557 3,540,347 6,018,589 10,231,602 17,393,723
Villa María del Triunfo 437,992 1,265,797 2,151,855 3,658,153 6,218,860 10,572,062 17,972,506
1/ Lima Metropolitana está conformada por la provincia de Lima.
1.7
3.31 PERÚ: POBLACIÓN TOTAL PROYECTADA AL 30 DE JUNIO DE CADA AÑO, SEGÚN
DEPARTAMENTO, PROVINCIA Y DISTRITO, 2018 - 2020

Año 0 Año 1 Año 2 Año 3 Año 4 Año 5

Provincia y Distrito
2020 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Lima Metropolitana 1/ 10,628,470 30,716,278 52,217,673 88,770,044 150,909,075 256,545,428 436,127,228
Provincia de Lima 9,674,755 27,960,042 47,532,071 80,804,521 137,367,686 233,525,066 396,992,613
Lima 267,379 772,725 1,313,633 2,233,176 3,796,399 6,453,879 10,971,594
Ate 670,818 1,938,664 3,295,729 5,602,739 9,524,656 16,191,916 27,526,257
Breña 93,111 269,091 457,454 777,672 1,322,043 2,247,473 3,820,704
El Agustino 221,974 641,505 1,090,558 1,853,949 3,151,713 5,357,913 9,108,452
Jesús María 81,743 236,237 401,603 682,726 1,160,634 1,973,077 3,354,231
La Molina 160,244 463,105 787,279 1,338,374 2,275,236 3,867,901 6,575,431
La Victoria 188,619 545,109 926,685 1,575,365 2,678,120 4,552,804 7,739,767
Lince 59,578 172,180 292,707 497,601 845,922 1,438,068 2,444,716
Lurigancho 283,231 818,538 1,391,514 2,365,574 4,021,475 6,836,508 11,622,063
Magdalena del Mar 65,139 188,252 320,028 544,047 924,881 1,572,297 2,672,905
Pueblo libre 94,010 271,689 461,871 785,181 1,334,808 2,269,173 3,857,594
Miraflores 108,855 314,591 534,805 909,168 1,545,585 2,627,495 4,466,742
Rímac 180,260 520,951 885,617 1,505,550 2,559,434 4,351,038 7,396,765
San Borja 127,102 367,325 624,452 1,061,569 1,804,667 3,067,933 5,215,487
San Isidro 67,703 195,662 332,625 565,462 961,286 1,634,186 2,778,116
San Luis 55,793 161,242 274,111 465,989 792,181 1,346,707 2,289,403
San Miguel 173,309 500,863 851,467 1,447,494 2,460,740 4,183,258 7,111,539
Santa Anita 221,776 640,933 1,089,585 1,852,295 3,148,902 5,353,134 9,100,327
Santiago de Surco 408,086 1,179,369 2,004,927 3,408,375 5,794,238 9,850,204 16,745,347

1/ Lima Metropolitana está conformada por la provincia de Lima.

 MERCADO POTENCIAL
1.7
Año 1 Año 2 Año 3 Año 4 Año 5

586,143 996,443 1,693,953 2,879,721 4,895,525

1,470,554 2,499,942 4,249,902 7,224,833 12,282,216
204,116 346,997 589,896 1,002,823 1,704,798
486,607 827,232 1,406,295 2,390,701 4,064,191
179,195 304,632 517,875 880,387 1,496,658
351,284 597,182 1,015,210 1,725,857 2,933,957
413,487 702,928 1,194,977 2,031,461 3,453,484
130,606 222,030 377,451 641,666 1,090,832
620,894 1,055,519 1,794,382 3,050,450 5,185,765
142,796 242,754 412,682 701,559 1,192,650
206,087 350,348 595,591 1,012,505 1,721,258
238,630 405,671 689,640 1,172,388 1,993,060
395,162 671,776 1,142,020 1,941,433 3,300,437
278,631 473,672 805,242 1,368,912 2,327,150
148,417 252,309 428,926 729,174 1,239,595
122,308 207,924 353,471 600,901 1,021,531
379,925 645,872 1,097,982 1,866,570 3,173,168
486,173 826,494 1,405,040 2,388,568 4,060,566
894,598 1,520,817 2,585,389 4,395,161 7,471,774
7,735,613 13,150,543 22,355,923 38,005,069 64,608,617
 MERCADO DISPONIBLE

Año 1 Año 2 Año 3 Año 4 Año 5

572,662 973,525 1,654,993 2,813,487 4,782,928

1,436,731 2,442,443 4,152,154 7,058,662 11,999,725
199,421 339,016 576,328 979,758 1,665,588
475,415 808,206 1,373,950 2,335,715 3,970,715
175,074 297,626 505,964 860,138 1,462,235
343,204 583,447 991,860 1,686,163 2,866,476
403,977 686,760 1,167,493 1,984,738 3,374,054
127,602 216,923 368,769 626,908 1,065,743
606,613 1,031,242 1,753,111 2,980,289 5,066,492
139,512 237,171 403,190 685,423 1,165,219
201,347 342,290 581,893 989,217 1,681,669
233,141 396,340 673,778 1,145,423 1,947,220
386,074 656,325 1,115,753 1,896,780 3,224,526
272,222 462,777 786,722 1,337,427 2,273,626
145,004 246,506 419,060 712,403 1,211,085
119,495 203,142 345,341 587,080 998,036
371,186 631,017 1,072,729 1,823,639 3,100,186
474,991 807,485 1,372,724 2,333,631 3,967,173
874,022 1,485,838 2,525,925 4,294,072 7,299,923
7,557,694 12,848,080 21,841,737 37,130,952 63,122,619
 MERCADO OBJETIVO

Año 1 Año 2 Año 3 Año 4 Año 5 Año 1

524,730 892,041 1,516,470 2,577,998 4,382,597 381,479

1,316,477 2,238,011 3,804,619 6,467,852 10,995,348 957,079
182,730 310,641 528,089 897,752 1,526,178 132,845
435,623 740,559 1,258,950 2,140,215 3,638,366 316,698
160,420 272,714 463,614 788,145 1,339,846 116,626
314,478 534,613 908,842 1,545,031 2,626,552 228,626
370,164 629,279 1,069,774 1,818,615 3,091,646 269,109
116,922 198,767 337,903 574,435 976,540 85,002
555,839 944,927 1,606,376 2,730,839 4,642,427 404,095
127,835 217,319 369,443 628,053 1,067,690 92,936
184,494 313,640 533,188 906,420 1,540,914 134,127
213,627 363,167 617,383 1,049,551 1,784,237 155,307
353,759 601,391 1,022,365 1,738,020 2,954,634 257,183
249,437 424,043 720,873 1,225,484 2,083,323 181,341
132,867 225,874 383,985 652,775 1,109,717 96,594
109,493 186,139 316,436 537,942 914,501 79,602
340,118 578,201 982,941 1,671,000 2,840,700 247,266
435,234 739,898 1,257,827 2,138,306 3,635,121 316,415
800,867 1,361,474 2,314,505 3,934,658 6,688,919 582,230
6,925,115 11,772,696 20,013,583 34,023,092 57,839,256 5,034,559

%Ventas Año 1
Enero 0.083 417,868
Febrero 0.083 417,868
Marzo 0.083 417,868
Abril 0.083 417,868
Mayo 0.083 417,868
Junio 0.083 417,868
Julio 0.083 417,868
Agosto 0.083 417,868
Setiembre 0.083 417,868
Octubre 0.083 417,868
Noviembre 0.083 417,868
Diciembre 0.083 417,868
0.996 5,034,559

1.84
0.12
1.72 Año 1
Lima 656,143
Ate 1,646,176
Breña 228,493
El Agustino 544,720
Jesús María 200,596
La Molina 393,236
La Victoria 462,868
Lince 146,203
Lurigancho 695,044
Magdalena del Mar 159,850
Pueblo libre 230,699
Miraflores 267,128
Rímac 442,355
San Borja 311,906
San Isidro 166,142
San Luis 136,915
San Miguel 425,297
Santa Anita 544,234
Santiago de Surco 1,001,436
Total sin IGV 8,659,441
IGV 692,755
Total Venta 9,352,197
CUANTIFICACION DE LA DEMANDA 72.7 escenario + CUANTIFICACION DE LA DEM

Año 2 Año 3 Año 4 Año 5 Año 1 Año 2

648,514 1,102,473 1,874,205 3,186,148 157,419 267,612

1,627,034 2,765,958 4,702,128 7,993,618 394,943 671,403
225,836 383,921 652,666 1,109,532 54,819 93,192
538,386 915,257 1,555,936 2,645,092 130,687 222,168
198,263 337,048 572,981 974,068 48,126 81,814
388,663 660,728 1,123,237 1,909,503 94,343 160,384
457,486 777,725 1,322,133 2,247,626 111,049 188,784
144,503 245,656 417,615 709,945 35,076 59,630
686,962 1,167,835 1,985,320 3,375,044 166,752 283,478
157,991 268,585 456,595 776,211 38,350 65,196
228,016 387,628 658,967 1,120,244 55,348 94,092
264,022 448,838 763,024 1,297,141 64,088 108,950
437,211 743,259 1,263,540 2,148,019 106,128 180,417
308,279 524,075 890,927 1,514,576 74,831 127,213
164,210 279,157 474,567 806,764 39,860 67,762
135,323 230,049 391,083 664,842 32,848 55,842
420,352 714,598 1,214,817 2,065,189 102,035 173,460
537,906 914,440 1,554,549 2,642,733 130,570 221,969
989,791 1,682,645 2,860,497 4,862,844 240,260 408,442
8,558,750 14,549,875 24,734,788 42,049,139 2,077,535 3,531,809

Año 2 Año 3 Año 4 Año 5 Año 1 Año 2

710,376 1,207,640 2,052,987 3,490,079 172,435 293,140
710,376 1,207,640 2,052,987 3,490,079 172,435 293,140
710,376 1,207,640 2,052,987 3,490,079 172,435 293,140
710,376 1,207,640 2,052,987 3,490,079 172,435 293,140
710,376 1,207,640 2,052,987 3,490,079 172,435 293,140
710,376 1,207,640 2,052,987 3,490,079 172,435 293,140
710,376 1,207,640 2,052,987 3,490,079 172,435 293,140
710,376 1,207,640 2,052,987 3,490,079 172,435 293,140
710,376 1,207,640 2,052,987 3,490,079 172,435 293,140
710,376 1,207,640 2,052,987 3,490,079 172,435 293,140
710,376 1,207,640 2,052,987 3,490,079 172,435 293,140
710,376 1,207,640 2,052,987 3,490,079 172,435 293,140
8,558,750 14,549,875 24,734,788 42,049,139 2,077,535 3,531,809

1.49
0.1
Año 2 Año 3 Año 4 Año 5 1.39 Año 1 Año 2
1,115,444 1,896,254 3,223,632 5,480,175 218,812 371,981
 2,798,498 4,757,447 8,087,660 13,749,023 548,971 933,251
388,438 660,344 1,122,585 1,908,394 76,198 129,537
926,024 1,574,242 2,676,211 4,549,558 181,655 308,813
341,013 579,722 985,528 1,675,397 66,895 113,722
668,501 1,136,452 1,931,968 3,284,346 131,137 222,933
786,875 1,337,688 2,274,069 3,865,917 154,358 262,409
248,546 422,528 718,297 1,221,105 48,756 82,886
1,181,575 2,008,677 3,414,751 5,805,076 231,785 394,035
271,745 461,966 785,343 1,335,083 53,307 90,622
392,188 666,720 1,133,424 1,926,820 76,934 130,788
454,118 772,001 1,312,401 2,231,082 89,083 151,440
752,003 1,278,406 2,173,289 3,694,592 147,518 250,780
530,240 901,409 1,532,395 2,605,071 104,015 176,826
282,441 480,150 816,255 1,387,634 55,405 94,189
232,756 395,684 672,664 1,143,528 45,659 77,620
723,005 1,229,109 2,089,485 3,552,125 141,829 241,110
925,198 1,572,837 2,673,824 4,545,500 181,493 308,538
1,702,441 2,894,150 4,920,054 8,364,092 333,961 567,734
14,721,050 25,025,785 42,543,835 72,324,519 2,887,773 4,909,214
1,177,684 2,002,063 3,403,507 5,785,962 231,022 392,737
15,898,734 27,027,848 45,947,341 78,110,480 3,118,795 5,301,951
UANTIFICACION DE LA DEMANDA 30% escenario -

Año 3 Año 4 Año 5

454,941 773,400 1,314,779

1,141,386 1,940,356 3,298,604
158,427 269,326 457,853
377,685 642,065 1,091,510
139,084 236,443 401,954
272,652 463,509 787,966
320,932 545,585 927,494
101,371 172,331 292,962
481,913 819,252 1,392,728
110,833 188,416 320,307
159,956 271,926 462,274
185,215 314,865 535,271
306,709 521,406 886,390
216,262 367,645 624,997
115,196 195,832 332,915
94,931 161,382 274,350
294,882 501,300 852,210
377,348 641,492 1,090,536
694,351 1,180,398 2,006,676
6,004,075 10,206,927 17,351,777

Año 3 Año 4 Año 5

498,338 847,175 1,440,197
498,338 847,175 1,440,197
498,338 847,175 1,440,197
498,338 847,175 1,440,197
498,338 847,175 1,440,197
498,338 847,175 1,440,197
498,338 847,175 1,440,197
498,338 847,175 1,440,197
498,338 847,175 1,440,197
498,338 847,175 1,440,197
498,338 847,175 1,440,197
498,338 847,175 1,440,197
6,004,075 10,206,927 17,351,777

Año 3 Año 4 Año 5

632,368 1,075,025 1,827,543
1,586,526 2,697,094 4,585,060
220,213 374,363 636,416
524,982 892,470 1,517,199
193,327 328,656 558,716
378,987 644,278 1,095,272
446,096 758,362 1,289,216
140,906 239,540 407,217
669,859 1,138,760 1,935,892
154,058 261,898 445,227
222,339 377,977 642,561
257,449 437,663 744,027
426,326 724,754 1,232,082
300,604 511,027 868,746
160,122 272,207 462,752
131,954 224,322 381,347
409,886 696,807 1,184,572
524,514 891,674 1,515,845
965,149 1,640,753 2,789,279
8,345,664 14,187,629 24,118,970
667,653 1,135,010 1,929,518
9,013,317 15,322,640 26,048,487
Envases de plástico Cantidad de ventas en unidades
biodegradables Año 1 Año 2 Año 3 Año 4
CT1 (P) 732,368 1,245,026 2,116,544 3,598,125
CT2 (G) 747,315 1,270,435 2,159,739 3,671,556
CT3 597,852 1,016,348 1,727,791 2,937,245
TOTAL 2,077,535 3,531,809 6,004,075 10,206,927
unidades
Año 5
6,116,813
6,241,646
4,993,317
17,351,777