METODO ARITMETRICO

CENSO POBLACION
1981 982074 982,074
1993 1270261 1,270,261
2007 1617050 1,617,050

Se tiene 3 censos ==> n=3

Numero de Ecuaciones:
3 3
C 2+ C 3+ r final =3 + 1+1 =5

3
C 2 , censo de dos en dos
12 1981 - 1993 r1 1270261 = 982074(1+12r1) r1= 0.024454
26 1981 - 2007 r2 1617050 = 982074(1+26r2) r2= 0.024868
14 1993 - 2007 r3 1617050 = 1270261(1+14r3) r3= 0.019500

3
C 3 , censo de tres en tres
1981 - 1993 - 2007 r4 (12r1+14r3+26r2)/(12+14+26) r4= 0.023327304

Calculoderalignl¿ 5 ¿¿ ¿
Y X a= 1617050 ….(ultimo

Pf =P a +P a r 5 t 982074 -26 censo)

1270261 -14
1617050 0

Y =a+b X Y= 1289795.00 X-13.3333333333333

=

1289795= b(-13.3333333333333)+1617050
b= 24544.1250
b=Pa ×r 12
r 12= 0.015178334003278

1981 - 1993 r1= 2.4454% Pf1= 1617050(1 + 0.024453945t)

1981 - 2007 r2= 2.486793600% Pf2= 1617050(1 + 0.024867936t)
1993 - 2007 r4= 1.9500% Pf3= 1617050(1 + 0.019500436t)
1981 - 1993 - 2007 r7= 2.3327% Pf4= 1617050(1 + 0.023327304t)
Minimos Cuadrados r12= 1.5178% Pf5= 1617050(1 + 0.015178334t)

CURVA 0 -14 -26

AÑO 2007 1993 1981 ∑ DIFERENCIA
CENSO 1,617,050 1,270,261 982,074 3,869,385
Pf1= 1,617,050 1,063,444 588,925 3,269,420 599,965 599965.07 26,777.77
Pf2= 1,617,050 1,054,072 571,520 3,242,642 26,778 26777.7659
Pf3= 1,617,050 1,175,585 797,187 3,589,823 -347,181 347180.635
Pf4= 1,617,050 1,088,950 636,293 3,342,293 247,529 247529.476
Pf5= 1,617,050 1,273,432 978,903 3,869,385 -527,092 527091.678

Pf2=1617050(1 + 0.024867936t)
 METODO GEOMETRICO

CENSO POBLACION
1981 982074
1993 1270261
2007 1617050

Se tiene 3 censos ==> n=3

Numero de Ecuaciones:

3 3
C 2+ C 3+ r final =3 + 1+1 =5

3
C 2 , censo de dos en dos
12 1981 - 1993 r1 1270261 = 982074(1+r1)^12 r1=
26 1981 - 2007 r2 1617050 = 982074(1+r2)^26 r2=
14 1993 - 2007 r3 1617050 = 1270261(1+r3)^14 r3=

3
C 3 , censo de tres en tres
1981 - 1993 - 2007 r7 (r1^12+r2^26+r3^14)^(1/(12+26+14)) r7=

Calculo der 5 Log (Y) X a=

5.9921442134293 -26
Log(Pf )=Log(Pa )+t×Log(1+r12 ) 6.1038929644315 -14
6.208723448718 0

Y =a+ X b Y=
6.1015868755263 X=
-13.3333333333333

6.10158687552627= b(-13.3333333333333)+Log(1617050)
b= 0.008035243
10b =(1+r 12 )
r 12= 0.018674050080868

1981 - 1993 r1= 2.1674% Pf1= 1617050(1 + 0.02167

1981 - 2007 r2= 1.9366% Pf2= 1617050(1 + 0.01936
1993 - 2007 r3= 1.7391% Pf3= 1617050(1 + 0.01739
1981 - 1993 - 2007 r4= 1.9308% Pf4= 1617050(1 + 0.01930
Minimos Cuadrados r5= 1.8674% Pf5= 1617050(1 + 0.01867

CURVA 0 -14 -26

AÑO 2007 1993 1981
∑
CENSO 1,617,050 1,270,261 982,074 3,869,385
Pf1= 1,617,050 1,197,707 925,982 3,740,739
Pf2= 1,617,050 1,236,236 982,064 3,835,350
Pf3= 1,617,050 1,270,261 1,032,852 3,920,163
Pf4= 1,617,050 1,237,221 983,518 3,837,789
Pf5= 1,617,050 1,248,045 999,557 3,864,653

Pf5= 1617050(1 + 0.018674)^t

GEOMETRICO

0.021674128
0.019365593
0.017391001

0.019308261

a= 6.20872344871801

2627= b(-13.3333333333333)+Log(1617050)

1617050(1 + 0.021674)^t
1617050(1 + 0.019366)^t
1617050(1 + 0.017391)^t
1617050(1 + 0.019308)^t
1617050(1 + 0.018674)^t

∑ DIFERENCIA
 DIFERENCIA
3,869,385
3,740,739 128,645.72
3,835,350 -94,610.65
3,920,163 -84,813.49
3,837,789 82,374.39
3,864,653 -26,863.53
 METODO PARABOLICO

CENSO POBLACION
1981 982074 12 -12 1981 - 1993
1993 1270261 26 -26 1981 - 2007
2007 1617050 -1981 1981 1981 - 0
14 -14 1993 - 2007
-1993 1993 1993 - 0
-2007 2007 2007 - 0
Se tiene 3 censos ==> n=3 0 0

Numero de Ecuaciones:

3
C 3 + r final =1+1=2
3
C 3 , censo de tres en tres

1981 - 1993 - 2007 982074=(-26)^2.A+(-26)B+C A= 29.0408 982074 676 -1.2E+08 N-C=

1270261=(-14)^2.A+(-14)B+ B= 25177.2134 1270261 196 -2.3E+08 M-C=
1617050=(-0)^2.A+(-0)B+C C= 1617050 1.1E+08
4368

Calculo de Pf 5
Y t t2 t3 t4 Yt Yt2
982074 -26 676 -17576 456976 -25533924 663882024
1270261 -14 196 -2744 38416 -17783654 248971156
1617050 0 0 0 0 0 0
3869385 -40 872 -20320 495392 -43317578 912853180

Ecuacion 01: (912853180)-(1617050x872)=A(495392)+(-20320)B

-497214420 =A(495392)+(-20320)B
Ecuacion 02: (-43317578)-((1617050)x(-40))=A(-20320)+(872)B
21364422 =A(-20320)+(872)B
A= 29.040750916
B= 25177.21337
C= 1617050

Pf1= (t^2)29.0407509157508+25177.2133699634t+1617050
Pf5= (t^2)29.040750915751+25177.2133699634t+1617050

CURVA 0 -14 -26

∑ DIFERENCIA
AÑO 2007 1993 1981
CENSO 1,617,050 1,270,261 982,074 3,869,385
Pf1= 1,617,050 1,270,261 982,074 3,869,385 0
Pf2= 1,617,050 1,270,261 982,074 3,869,385 0

Pf2= (t^2)29.040750915751+25177.2133699634t+1617050
-634976
-346789
 METODO INCREMENTO DE VARIABLES
CENSO POBLACION
1981 982074
1993 1270261
2007 1617050

1977 P0= 886011.67

1987 P1= 1126167.50 n= 4.00
1997 Pn-1= 1369343.57
2007 Pn= 1617050.00

Pn −P0
Δ1 P= 243679.44
n−1

(Pn−P n−1 )−(P1−P0 )

Δ2 P= 3775.30 245567.09
n−2

Δ2 P 1887.65
=
2
Pn= 1617050+(243679.444444444m+1887.64880952385m)+1887.64880952385m2
Pn= 1617050+(245567.093253968m)+1887.64880952385m2
Pn= 1617050+(24556.7093253968m¨)+18.8764880952385(m¨)^2

m/10 = m¨
 LAS ECUACIONES DE PROYECCION POBLACIONAL SERAN:

ARITMETICO: PF= 1617050(1 + 0.024867936t)

GEOMETRICO: PF= 1617050(1 + 0.018674)^t
PARABOLICO: PF= (t^2)29.040750915751+25177.2133699634t+1617050
INCREMENTO DE VAR: PF= 1617050+(24556.7093253968m¨)+18.8764880952385(m¨)^2

Variables
*) t: esta en años
*) m¨: esta en años

"t" ó "m" ARITMETICO GEOMETRICO PARABOLICO INC. VAR.

2008 0 1,617,050.00 1,617,050.00 1617050.00 1617050.00
2009 1 1,657,262.70 1,647,246.79 1642256.25 1641625.59
2010 2 1,697,475.39 1,678,007.48 1667520.59 1666238.92
2011 3 1,737,688.09 1,709,342.59 1692843.01 1690890.02
2012 4 1,777,900.78 1,741,262.85 1718223.51 1715578.86
2013 5 1,818,113.48 1,773,779.20 1743662.09 1740305.46
2014 6 1,858,326.18 1,806,902.75 1769158.75 1765069.81
2015 7 1,898,538.87 1,840,644.85 1794713.49 1789871.91
2016 8 1,938,751.57 1,875,017.05 1820326.32 1814711.77
2017 9 1,978,964.26 1,910,031.12 1845997.22 1839589.38
2018 10 2,019,176.96 1,945,699.04 1871726.21 1864504.74
2019 11 2,059,389.65 1,982,033.03 1897513.28 1889457.86
2020 12 2,099,602.35 2,019,045.51 1923358.43 1914448.73
2021 13 2,139,815.05 2,056,749.17 1949261.66 1939477.35
2022 14 2,180,027.74 2,095,156.90 1975222.97 1964543.72
2023 15 2,220,240.44 2,134,281.86 2001242.37 1989647.85
2024 16 2,260,453.13 2,174,137.44 2027319.85 2014789.73
2025 17 2,300,665.83 2,214,737.28 2053455.40 2039969.36
2026 18 2,340,878.53 2,256,095.29 2079649.04 2065186.75
2027 19 2,381,091.22 2,298,225.61 2105900.77 2090441.89
2028 20 2,421,303.92 2,341,142.68 2132210.57 2115734.78
2029 21 2,461,516.61 2,384,861.17 2158578.45 2141065.43
2030 22 2,501,729.31 2,429,396.07 2185004.42 2166433.83
2031 23 2,541,942.01 2,474,762.61 2211488.46 2191839.98
2032 24 2,582,154.70 2,520,976.33 2238030.59 2217283.88
2033 25 2,622,367.40 2,568,053.04 2264630.80 2242765.54
2034 26 2,662,580.09 2,616,008.86 2291289.10 2268284.95
2035 27 2,702,792.79 2,664,860.21 2318005.47 2293842.11
2036 28 2,743,005.49 2,714,623.81 2344779.92 2319437.03
2037 29 2,783,218.18 2,765,316.70 2371612.46 2345069.70
2038 30 2,823,430.88 2,816,956.22 2398503.08 2370740.12
SERAN:

PROMEDIO
1,617,050.00
1,647,097.83
1,677,310.60
1,707,690.93
1,738,241.50
1,768,965.05
1,799,864.37
1,830,942.28
1,862,201.68
1,893,645.50
1,925,276.74
1,957,098.45
1,989,113.75
2,021,325.81
2,053,737.83
2,086,353.13
2,119,175.04
2,152,206.97
2,185,452.40
2,218,914.87
2,252,597.99
2,286,505.42
2,320,640.91
2,355,008.27
2,389,611.38
2,424,454.20
2,459,540.75
2,494,875.15
2,530,461.56
2,566,304.26
2,602,407.57