TASA DE DESCUENTO

ESTRUCTURA DE LA EMPRESA
PASIVOS 47500
RECURSOS PROPIOP 19500
TOTAL DE INVERSION 67000

Proyección de flujos
ESCENARIO NORMAL

VENTAS 5%
PRECIO 4%
TOTAL DE INGRESOS POR VENTAS

EGRESOS
COSTOS DE MERCADERIAS 60%
GASTOS DE VENTAS 9%
GASTOS ADMINISTRATIVOS 6%
IMPUESTOS
TOTAL EGRESOS

FLUJO DE CAJA LIBRE

VPN 104,226,390
DEUDA 47,500,000
VALOR ECONOMICO DE LA EMPRESA V.E.E 56,726,390
No de acciones 19,500,000
Valor de cada acción 2.91

Proyección de flujos
ESCENARIO PESIMISTA +1

VENTAS 3%
PRECIO 4%
TOTAL DE INGRESOS POR VENTAS

EGRESOS
COSTOS DE MERCADERIAS 60%
GASTOS DE VENTAS 9%
GASTOS ADMINISTRATIVOS 6%
IMPUESTOS
TOTAL EGRESOS

FLUJO DE CAJA LIBRE

TASA DE DESCUENTO 13.46%

VPN 91,864,421
DEUDA 47,500,000
V.E.E 44,364,421
No de acciones 19,500,000
Valor de cada acción 2.28

Proyección de flujos
ESCENARIO OPTIMISTA -1

VENTAS 7%
PRECIO 4%
TOTAL DE INGRESOS POR VENTAS

EGRESOS
COSTOS DE MERCADERIAS 60%
GASTOS DE VENTAS 9%
GASTOS ADMINISTRATIVOS 6%
IMPUESTOS
TOTAL EGRESOS

FLUJO DE CAJA LIBRE

TASA DE DESCUENTO 11.46%

VPN 119,038,304
DEUDA 47,500,000
V.E.E 71,538,304
No de acciones 19,500,000
Valor de cada acción 3.67
 w COSTO %
70.90% 11% 7.80%
29.10% 16% 4.66%
12.46% Tasa de descuento WACC

1 2 3 4 5
80,000 84,000 88,200 92,610 92,610
800 832 865 900 900
64,000,000 69,888,000 76,317,696 83,338,924 83,338,924

38,400,000 41,932,800 45,790,618 50,003,354 50,003,354

5,410,000 5,939,920 6,518,593 7,150,503 7,150,503
3,840,000 4,193,280 4,579,062 5,000,335 5,000,335
5,800,000 6,333,600 6,916,291 7,552,590 7,552,590
53,450,000 58,399,600 63,804,563 69,706,783 69,706,783

10,550,000 11,488,400 12,513,133 13,632,141 13,632,141

109,449,185 Valor residual
10,550,000 11,488,400 12,513,133 123,081,326

V.E.E 56,726,390
Act improd 8,900,000
Valor 65,626,390
 1 2 3 4 5
80,000 82,400 84,872 87,418 87,418
800 832 865 900 900
64,000,000 68,556,800 73,438,044 78,666,833 78,666,833

38,400,000 41,134,080 44,062,826 47,200,100 47,200,100

5,410,000 5,820,112 6,259,424 6,730,015 6,730,015
3,840,000 4,113,408 4,406,283 4,720,010 4,720,010
5,800,000 6,212,960 6,655,323 7,129,182 7,129,182
53,450,000 57,280,560 61,383,856 65,779,306 65,779,306

10,550,000 11,276,240 12,054,188 12,887,526 12,887,526

95,746,854
10,550,000 11,276,240 12,054,188 108,634,380

V.E.E 44,364,421
Act improd 8,900,000
Valor 53,264,421

1 2 3 4 5
80,000 85,600 91,592 98,003 98,003
800 832 865 900 900
64,000,000 71,219,200 79,252,726 88,192,433 88,192,433

38,400,000 42,731,520 47,551,635 52,915,460 52,915,460

5,410,000 6,059,728 6,782,745 7,587,319 7,587,319
3,840,000 4,273,152 4,755,164 5,291,546 5,291,546
5,800,000 6,454,240 7,182,278 7,992,439 7,992,439
53,450,000 59,518,640 66,271,823 73,786,764 73,786,764

10,550,000 11,700,560 12,980,903 14,405,669 14,405,669

125,703,918
10,550,000 11,700,560 12,980,903 140,109,587

V.E.E 71,538,304
Act improd 8,900,000
Valor 80,438,304
PERDIDAS Y GANANCIAS
1 2
VENTAS 64,000,000 69,888,000
COSTO DE VENTAS 38,400,000 41,932,800
UTILIDAD BRUTA 25,600,000 27,955,200

GASTOS DE VENTAS 5,760,000 6,289,920

GASTOS ADMINISTRATIVOS 3,840,000 4,193,280
TOTAL DE GASTOS 9,600,000 10,483,200
UTILIDAD OPERATIVA (UAII) 16,000,000 17,472,000

IMPUESTOS 36.25% 5,800,000 6,333,600

UTILIDAD NETA 10,200,000 11,138,400

PESIMISTA
PERDIDAS Y GANANCIAS
1 2
VENTAS 64,000,000 68,556,800
COSTO DE VENTAS 38,400,000 41,134,080
UTILIDAD BRUTA 25,600,000 27,422,720

GASTOS DE VENTAS 5,760,000 6,170,112

GASTOS ADMINISTRATIVOS 3,840,000 4,113,408
TOTAL DE GASTOS 9,600,000 10,283,520
UTILIDAD OPERATIVA (UAII) 16,000,000 17,139,200

IMPUESTOS 36.25% 5800000.00 6212960.00

UTILIDAD NETA 10,200,000 10,926,240

Optimista
PERDIDAS Y GANANCIAS
1 2
VENTAS 64,000,000 71,219,200
COSTO DE VENTAS 38,400,000 42,731,520
UTILIDAD BRUTA 25,600,000 28,487,680

GASTOS DE VENTAS 5,760,000 6,409,728

GASTOS ADMINISTRATIVOS 3,840,000 4,273,152
TOTAL DE GASTOS 9,600,000 10,682,880
UTILIDAD OPERATIVA (UAII) 16,000,000 17,804,800

IMPUESTOS 36.25% 5800000.00 6454240.00

UTILIDAD NETA 10,200,000 11,350,560
 3 4 5
76,317,696 83,338,924 83,338,924
45,790,618 50,003,354 50,003,354
30,527,078 33,335,570 33,335,570

6,868,593 7,500,503 7,500,503

4,579,062 5,000,335 5,000,335
11,447,654 12,500,839 12,500,839
19,079,424 20,834,731 20,834,731

6,916,291 7,552,590 7,552,590 63.75% 100% 36.25%

12,163,133 13,282,141 13,282,141

3 4 5
73,438,044 78,666,833 78,666,833
44,062,826 47,200,100 47,200,100
29,375,218 31,466,733 31,466,733

6,609,424 7,080,015 7,080,015

4,406,283 4,720,010 4,720,010
11,015,707 11,800,025 11,800,025
18,359,511 19,666,708 19,666,708

6655322.75 7129181.73 7129181.73

11,704,188 12,537,526 12,537,526

3 4 5
79,252,726 88,192,433 88,192,433
47,551,635 52,915,460 52,915,460
31,701,090 35,276,973 35,276,973

7,132,745 7,937,319 7,937,319

4,755,164 5,291,546 5,291,546
11,887,909 13,228,865 13,228,865
19,813,181 22,048,108 22,048,108

7182278.27 7992439.26 7992439.26

12,630,903 14,055,669 14,055,669
 Resumen V.E.E ( Valor economico esperado)

ESCENARIO W VPN VALOR FINAL

Normal 60% 104,226,390 62,535,834
Pesimista 15% 91,864,421 13,779,663
Optimista 25% 119,038,304 29,759,576
106,075,073
Pasivos 47,500,000
VEE 58,575,073
No Acciones 19,500,000
Valor Accion 3.00

VEE 58,575,073
ACTI IMPROD $8,900,000.00
Valor a Negociar 67,475,073