Clase Frecuencia Clase Frecuencia

-36409.0826 0 3328.32891 24
-26474.7297 2 13262.6818 24
-16540.3768 7 -6606.02397 12
-6606.02397 12 23197.0347 11
3328.32891 24 33131.3875 11
13262.6818 24 -16540.3768 7
23197.0347 11 43065.7404 5
33131.3875 11 53000.0933 3
43065.7404 5 -26474.7297 2
53000.0933 3 y mayor... 1
y mayor... 1 -36409.0826 0
 Clase Frecuencia Clase Frecuencia
-35612.1136 1 10487.3259 22
-26392.2257 2 1267.43798 19 Histogram
-17172.3378 10 19707.2138 17 25
-7952.44992 14 -7952.44992 14
1267.43798 19 -17172.3378 10 20
10487.3259 22 28927.1017 8
19707.2138 17 38146.9896 5 15
28927.1017 8 -26392.2257 2
10
38146.9896 5 -35612.1136 1

Frecuencia
47366.8775 1 47366.8775 1
5
y mayor... 1 y mayor... 1
0

6 44 1 31 0 75 1 78 6 49 5 06 9 37
7 70 92 62 22 03 53 44
58 77 77 21 82 67 57 2 5
32 3 7 9 21 3 499 337 10 1 98 9 .2
7. .4 7. 2 .4 7 2. 7. 6. 3 92
48 6 7 7 0 2
9 5 1 7 1 28 9 38 1
4 6 56
10 12 19 -7 - -2 -3

Clase
 Histograma

Frecuencia

.
3 1 7 5 7 8 4 9 0 6 3 7 0 8 1 1 6 8 r..
21 20 21 36 35 49 95 65 63 ay
o
76 12 20 75 74 71 18 73
3 7 9 9 2 3 7 8 0 1 6 8 9 5 22 5 1 3 6 7 7 4 ym
1
7.
2 44 .3 .1 .9 2. .1 .8
5 2. 1 72 927 146 639 61 2 366
9 7 28 38 -2 5 47
-7 -1 -3

Clase
 Clase Frecuencia
-30540.2663 1
-20446.6621 6 Histogram
-10353.0579 7
-259.453633 25 30
9834.15061 20
19927.7548 18
30021.3591 10 25
40114.9633 6
50208.5676 3
60302.1718 2 20
y mayor... 2

Frecuencia 15

10

0
4 1 1 7 2 8
6 63 6 18 6 02 6 13 2 98 4 45
6 34 1 08 8 70 2 58 0 54 8 43 08
26 66
2
05
7
36
3
50
6
75
4
35
9
0. 6. 3. 5 1 7. 1.
0 54 4 5 .4 3 4. 92 02
-3 04 03 59 98 19 30
-2 -1 -2

Clase
 Histograma

Frecuencia

37 82 58 17 77 37 96 ...
1 9 4 6 7 9 0 y or
86 42 34 14 94 74 55 a
6 05 4 84 9 08 3 31 7 55 1 79 ym
50 75 35 96 56 17
4.
1 7. 1. 4. 8. 2.
3 92 02 11 20 30
98 19 30 40 50 60

Clase
MES DEMANDA
Jan-16 17091
Feb-16 17187 SERIES
Mar-16 19653
35000
Apr-16 15328 DEMANDA
May-16 18793
Jun-16 19131 30000
Jul-16 18817
Aug-16 17277
25000
Sep-16 15545
Oct-16 16020
Nov-16 16736 20000
Dec-16 19209
Jan-17 20115
15000
Feb-17 22982
Mar-17 21800
Apr-17 22310 10000

May-17 19914
Jun-17 23806 5000
Jul-17 22490
Aug-17 19215
0
Sep-17 18486 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Oct-17 21085
Nov-17 18564
Dec-17 23299
Jan-18 27676 Tendencias y patrones
Feb-18 25815
Mar-18 27208
Apr-18 23014 DATOS HISTORICOS
May-18 24699
Jun-18 25408
Jul-18 24550 Analizar la tendencia
Aug-18 23043
Sep-18 27286 Analizar los patrones
Oct-18 29871

Gráfica de análisis de tendencia d

Modelo de tendencia linea
Yt = 15799 + 313,0×t
30000

27500

25000
A
 Gráfica de análisis de tendencia d
Modelo de tendencia linea
Yt = 15799 + 313,0×t
30000

27500

25000

DEMANDA
22500

20000

17500

15000
3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27
Índice
 FUTUROS

DEMANDA

RIESGOS - VOLATILIDAD --
Riesgo sistematico minimizar el error

Riesgos No Sistematicos Aleatoriedad

4 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 Riesgos

Analizar los datos historicos

Distribucion Normal --- >> demostrar que los datos siguen u

DATOS HISTORICOS

álisis de tendencia de DEMANDA

Modelo de tendencia lineal
Yt = 15799 + 313,0×t
Variable
Actual
Ajustes

Medidas de exactitud
MAPE 9
MAD 1825
 álisis de tendencia de DEMANDA
Modelo de tendencia lineal
Yt = 15799 + 313,0×t
Variable
Actual
Ajustes

Medidas de exactitud
MAPE 9
MAD 1825
MSD 4734742

15 18 21 24 27 30 33
Índice
minimizar el error

leatoriedad

emostrar que los datos siguen una distribucion Normal

 x
media INDICADORES DE UBICACION
mediana
moda

RESOLUCION DE PROBLEMA DE TELEMARKETING

1 2 3 7 60

CANTIDAD PROMEDIO DIAS DE SOLUCION DE PROBLEMA

CALCULO DE LA TASA DE CRECIMIENTOO

DEMANDA
Chart Title
17091
17187 0.56% 30.00%

19653 14.35%
22.61%
15328 -22.01% 20.00% 19.54%
18793 22.61% 14.78% 14.25%
14.35% 1
19131 1.80%
10.00%
18817 -1.64%
17277 -8.18% 4.47% 4.72%
1.80% 3.06% 2.34%
15545 -10.02% 0.56%
0.00%
1 2 3 4 5-1.64%
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
16020 3.06% -3.79
-5.14% -5.53%
16736 4.47% -8.18%
-10.00% -10.02% -10.74%
19209 14.78% -14.56%
20115 4.72%
-20.00%
22982 14.25% -22.01%
21800 -5.14%
22310 2.34% -30.00%
19914 -10.74%
23806 19.54%
22490 -5.53% DISPESION : DESVIACION ESTANDART DISTRIBUCION NORMAL
19215 -14.56%
18486 -3.79% RANGO - RANGO INTERCUARTIL
21085 14.06%
18564 -11.96%
23299 25.51% DIAGRAMA DE CAJAS Y BIGOTES
27676 18.79%
25815 -6.72%
27208 5.40%
23014 -15.41% Gráfica de caja de TA
24699 7.32% 30,00%
25408 2.87%
24550 -3.38%
23043 -6.14% 20,00%
27286 18.41%
29871 9.47%
10,00%
TASA

0,00%

-10,00%
 10,00%

TASA
0,00%

-10,00%

-20,00%

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
 Variable X 1 Curva de regresión ajustada
0.3
0.2
0.1 Y
0 Pronóstico para Y
Y

-0.1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
-0.2
-0.3
Variable X 1

Gráfico de probabilidad normal

0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Y

-0.1 0 20 40 60 80 100 12
-0.2
-0.3
Muestra percentil
 MEDIANA
1 15328 Rango x max - x min
2 15545
3 16020 Rango Intercuartil : q3-q1
4 16736
5 17091
6 17187
7 17277
8 18486 Q1
9 18564
10 18793
11 18817
12 19131
13 19209
14 19215
15 19653
16 19914
17 20115 Q2
18 21085
19 21800
20 22310
21 22490
22 22982
23 23014
24 23043
25 23299
26 23806
27 24550 Q3
28 24699
29 25408
30 25815
31 27208
32 27286
 33 27676
34 29871

Chart Title

25.51%

19.54% 18.79% 18.41%

4.78% 14.25% 14.06%
9.47%
7.32%
% 4.72% 5.40%
2.34% 2.87%
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33
-3.79% -3.38%
-5.14% -5.53% -6.14%
-6.72%
-10.74% -11.96%
-14.56% -15.41%

ISTRIBUCION NORMAL 2020

OUTLIERS -- DATOS ATIPICOS - RETIRAMOS DE NUESTRA DE NUESTRA MUESTRA

OUTLIERS 1,5* Rango Intercuartil

Gráfica de caja de TASA

Revisando que no contamos con outliers, se proc

 0.005616991398982
0.14348053761564
-0.220068182974609
0.226056889352818
0.01798542010323
-0.016413151429617
-0.081840888558219
-0.100248885801933
0.030556449018977
0.044694132334582
0.147765296367113
0.047165391222864
0.142530449913
-0.051431555130102
0.023394495412844
-0.107395786642761
0.195440393692879
-0.055280181466857
-0.145620275678079
-0.037939110070258
0.14059288109921
-0.119563670856059
0.255063563887093
0.187862140006009
-0.067242376065906
0.053960875460004
-0.154145839458983
0.07321630311984
0.028705615611968
-0.033768891687658
-0.061384928716904
0.184134010328516
0.094737227882431
Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlaci 0.06536689
Coeficiente de determin 0.00427283
R^2 ajustado -0.0278474
Error típico 0.12208862
Observaciones 33

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F
Regresión 1 0.00198284 0.00198284 0.13302614 0.71779126
Residuos 31 0.46207459 0.01490563
Total 32 0.46405743

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95%

Intercepción 0.01011881 0.04349062 0.23266657 0.81754966 -0.0785809
Variable X 1 0.00081407 0.002232 0.36472748 0.71779126 -0.00373812

Análisis de los residuales Resultados de datos de probabilidad

Observación Pronóstico para YResiduos

Residuos estándares Percentil
1 0.01093289 -0.00531589 -0.04423798 1.51515152
2 0.01174696 0.13173358 1.09626472 4.54545455
3 0.01256103 -0.23262921 -1.93590124 7.57575758
4 0.0133751 0.21268179 1.7699021 10.6060606
5 0.01418917 0.00379625 0.03159171 13.6363636
6 0.01500325 -0.0314164 -0.26144199 16.6666667
7 0.01581732 -0.09765821 -0.8126952 19.6969697
8 0.01663139 -0.11688028 -0.97265803 22.7272727
9 0.01744546 0.01311099 0.10910742 25.7575758
10 0.01825954 0.0264346 0.21998427 28.7878788
11 0.01907361 0.12869169 1.07095062 31.8181818
12 0.01988768 0.02727771 0.22700053 34.8484848
13 0.02070175 0.1218287 1.01383796 37.8787879
14 0.02151582 -0.07294738 -0.60705584 40.9090909
15 0.0223299 0.0010646 0.00885941 43.9393939
16 0.02314397 -0.13053976 -1.08632992 46.969697
17 0.02395804 0.17148235 1.42704734 50
 18 0.02477211 -0.08005229 -0.66618175 53.030303
19 0.02558618 -0.17120646 -1.42475141 56.0606061
20 0.02640026 -0.06433937 -0.53542141 59.0909091
21 0.02721433 0.11337855 0.94351727 62.1212121
22 0.0280284 -0.14759207 -1.22823643 65.1515152
23 0.02884247 0.22622109 1.88257392 68.1818182
24 0.02965655 0.15820559 1.31656038 71.2121212
25 0.03047062 -0.09771299 -0.81315112 74.2424242
26 0.03128469 0.02267619 0.18870741 77.2727273
27 0.03209876 -0.1862446 -1.54989629 80.3030303
28 0.03291283 0.04030347 0.3353987 83.3333333
29 0.03372691 -0.00502129 -0.04178634 86.3636364
30 0.03454098 -0.06830987 -0.56846327 89.3939394
31 0.03535505 -0.09673998 -0.80505386 92.4242424
32 0.03616912 0.14796489 1.23133894 95.4545455
33 0.03698319 0.05775403 0.48061936 98.4848485

0.005616991398982
0.14348053761564
-0.220068182974609 0.02395804 PROMEDIO
0.226056889352818 0.1204234 DESVIACION ESTANDART
0.01798542010323
-0.016413151429617 INPUT
-0.081840888558219 costo de venta s 40% ingresos
-0.100248885801933 costos v.
0.030556449018977 tasa descuento 10% Utilidad Br
0.044694132334582
0.147765296367113 Inversion
0.047165391222864
0.142530449913
-0.051431555130102 VAN
0.023394495412844
-0.107395786642761
0.195440393692879
-0.055280181466857
-0.145620275678079
-0.037939110070258
0.14059288109921
-0.119563670856059
0.255063563887093
0.187862140006009
-0.067242376065906
 0.053960875460004
-0.154145839458983
0.07321630311984
0.028705615611968
-0.033768891687658
-0.061384928716904
0.184134010328516
0.094737227882431
ustada

Y
Pronóstico para Y
35
Variable X 1 Gráfico de los residuales
0.3
0.2
Residuos

0.1
0
-0.1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
normal -0.2
-0.3
Variable X 1

80 100 120
RA DE NUESTRA MUESTRA

no contamos con outliers, se procede a analizar los datos promedio y l dispersión

 Superior 95% Inferior 95,0%
Superior 95,0%
0.0988185262 -0.0785809 0.09881853
0.0053662684 -0.00373812 0.00536627

datos de probabilidad

Y
-0.220068183
-0.154145839
-0.145620276
-0.119563671
-0.107395787
-0.100248886
-0.081840889
-0.067242376
-0.061384929
-0.055280181
-0.051431555
-0.03793911
-0.033768892
-0.016413151
0.0056169914
0.0179854201
0.0233944954
0.0287056156
0.030556449
0.0446941323
0.0471653912
0.0539608755
0.0732163031
0.0947372279
0.1405928811
0.1425304499
0.1434805376
0.1477652964
0.1841340103
0.18786214
0.1954403937
0.2260568894
0.2550635639

CON RIESGO
0 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
29871 26388.0886 26391.7804 33274.7853 30555.3272 32176.1338 34218.7479 30165.9763
10555.2354 10556.7122 13309.9141 12222.1309 12870.4535 13687.4992 12066.3905
15832.8531 15835.0683 19964.8712 18333.1963 19305.6803 20531.2488 18099.5858

90000

-$ 2,133.33

-$ 2,133.33
1 -2133.32827
2 -2133.32827
3 -2133.32827
4 -2133.32827
5 -2133.32827
SIN RIESGO 6 -2133.32827
7 -2133.32827
8 -2133.32827
 9 -2133.32827
10 -2133.32827
11 -2133.32827
12 -2133.32827
13 -2133.32827
14 -2133.32827
15 -2133.32827
16 -2133.32827
17 -2133.32827
18 -2133.32827
19 -2133.32827
20 -2133.32827
21 -2133.32827
22 -2133.32827
23 -2133.32827
24 -2133.32827
25 -2133.32827
26 -2133.32827
27 -2133.32827
28 -2133.32827
29 -2133.32827
30 -2133.32827
31 -2133.32827
32 -2133.32827
33 -2133.32827
34 -2133.32827
35 -2133.32827
36 -2133.32827
37 -2133.32827
38 -2133.32827
39 -2133.32827
40 -2133.32827
41 -2133.32827
42 -2133.32827
43 -2133.32827
44 -2133.32827
45 -2133.32827
46 -2133.32827
47 -2133.32827
48 -2133.32827
49 -2133.32827
50 -2133.32827
51 -2133.32827
52 -2133.32827
53 -2133.32827
54 -2133.32827
55 -2133.32827
56 -2133.32827
57 -2133.32827
58 -2133.32827
59 -2133.32827
60 -2133.32827
61 -2133.32827
62 -2133.32827
63 -2133.32827
64 -2133.32827
65 -2133.32827
66 -2133.32827
67 -2133.32827
68 -2133.32827
69 -2133.32827
70 -2133.32827
71 -2133.32827
72 -2133.32827
73 -2133.32827
74 -2133.32827
75 -2133.32827
76 -2133.32827
77 -2133.32827
78 -2133.32827
79 -2133.32827
80 -2133.32827
81 -2133.32827
82 -2133.32827
83 -2133.32827
84 -2133.32827
85 -2133.32827
86 -2133.32827
87 -2133.32827
88 -2133.32827
89 -2133.32827
90 -2133.32827
91 -2133.32827
92 -2133.32827
93 -2133.32827
94 -2133.32827
95 -2133.32827
96 -2133.32827
97 -2133.32827
98 -2133.32827
 99 -2133.32827
100 -2133.32827
s residuales

20 25 30 35

ble X 1
0
vf= vp(1+ti) 11