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Theory of Decisions
21 de November de 2019
Introduction
lógico.
Exercises solved according to the proposed theme
p*q =
EC1 0,3W+0,1X+0,2Y+0,3Z =W
EC2 0,2W+0,3X+0,1Y+0Z =X
EC3 0,4W+0,5X+0,1Y+0,2Z =Y
EC4 0,1W+0,1X+0,6Y+0,5Z =Z
EC5 W+X+Y+Z =1
La matriz de transición para una cadena de Markov de n estados es una matriz de n x n
con todos los registros no negativos y con la propiedad adicional de que la suma de los
EC
1 0,3W-W+0,1X+0,2Y+0,3Z =0
EC
2 0,2W+0,3X-X+0,1Y+0Z =0
EC
3 0,4W+0,5X+0,1Y-Y+0,2Z =0
EC
4 0,1W+0,1X+0,6Y+0,5Z-Z =0
EC
5 W+X+Y+Z-1 =0
EC1 -0,7W+0,1X+0,2Y+0,3Z = 0
EC2 0,2W-0,7X+0,1Y =0
EC3 0,4W+0,5X-0,9Y+0,2Z =0
EC4 0,1W+0,1X+0,6Y-0,5Z =0
EC5 W+X+Y+Z-1 =0
E0 E1 E2 E3
W X Y Z
0,25247525 0,10891089 0,25742574 0,38118812
COEFFICIENTS
INDEPENDEN
W X Y Z T
-1 0,1 0,2 0,3 0
0,2 -1 0,1 0 0
0,4 0,5 -1 0,2 0
0,1 0,1 0,6 -1 0
1 1 1 1 -1
EQUAL TO
3E-17
-2E-17
1E-16
-6E-17
0E+00
($ 778,000)
= 641.642
The current percentages of each operator in the current market are for Tigo
0.2 for Comcel 0.3, for Movistar 0.3, for ETB 0.1 and 0.1 for Uff (initial
state).
According to Table 2 by applying the Markovian criteria, solve the
multiplication of the initial state vector (market share) by the probability
matrix (transition matrix). Answer:
a. Find the probability that each user stays with the mobile company for
the 3 next periods.
INITIAL STATE
TIGO COMCEL MOVISTAR ETB UFF SUM
po 0,2 0,3 0,3 0,1 0,1 1
TIGO COMCEL MOVISTAR ETB UFF SUM
p1 0,245 0,245 0,21 0,15 0,15 1
TIGO COMCEL MOVISTAR ETB UFF SUM
p2 0,22875 0,2395 0,217 0,151 0,16375 1
TIGO COMCEL MOVISTAR ETB UFF SUM
p3 0,22825 0,240225 0,2160625 0,1525375 0,162925 1
In Colombia there are 6 main mobile operators such as Avantel, Tigo, Comcel,
Movistar, ETB and Uff, which we will call states. The following chart summarizes the
odds that each client has to stay in their current operator or make a change of company.
The current percentages of each operator in the current market are for Avantel 0.1, Tigo
0.15 for Comcel 0.15, for Movistar 0.35, for ETB 0.1 and 0.15 for Uff (initial state).
According to Tables 2 and 3 by applying the Markovian criteria, solve the multiplication
of the initial state vector (market share) by the probability matrix (transition matrix).
Answer:
a. Find the probability that each user stays with the mobile company for the next
period.
STATE TIGO COMCEL MOVISTAR ETB AVANTEL UFF
TIGO 0,1 0,2 0,4 0,1 0,1 0,1
COMCEL 0,1 0,2 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,1
E1 MOVISTAR 0,1 0,3 0,2 0,2 0,2 0
ETB 0,1 0,3 0,2 0,1 0,1 0,2
AVANTEL 0,1 0,15 0,35 0,1 0,1 0,2
UFF 0,1 0,2 0,2 0,3 0 0,2
Suppose that 4 types of soft drinks are obtained in the market: Colombian, Pepsi Cola,
Fanta and Coca Cola when a person has bought Colombian there is a probability that
they will continue to consume 40%, 20% of which will buy Pepsi Cola, 10% that Fanta
buys and 30% that Coca Cola consumes; when the buyer currently consumes Pepsi
Cola there is a probability that he will continue to buy 30%, 20% buy Colombiana, 20%
that Fanta consumes and 30% Coca Cola; if Fanta is currently consumed, the likelihood
of it continuing to be consumed is 20%, 40% buy Colombian, 20% consume Pepsi Cola
and 20% go to Coca Cola. If you currently consume Coca Cola the probability that it will
continue to consume is 50%, 20% buy Colombian, 20% that consumes Pepsi Cola and
10% that is passed to Fanta.
At present, each Colombian brand, Pepsi Cola, Fanta and Coca Cola have the following
percentages in market share respectively (30%, 25%, 15% and 30%) during week 3.
According to the data of problem 4 and 5 by applying the Markovian criteria, solve the
multiplication of the initial state vector (market share) by the probability matrix (transition
matrix). Answer:
b. Encuentre la probabilidad de que cada usuario permanezca con la marca o cambie a otro para el
Períodos 4,5, 6 y el período 7.
At present, brand, have the following percentages in market share respectively (19%,
18%, 17%, 15%, 19% y 12%) during week 4.
According to the data of problem 4 and 5 by applying the Markovian criteria, solve the
multiplication of the initial state vector (market share) by the probability matrix (transition
matrix). Answer:
B Encuentre la probabilidad de que cada usuario permanezca con la marca o cambie a otro para el
Período S 4,5, 6 y el período 7.
La información que nos brindan las probabilidades es muy útil para el ambito
estocástico: Massachusetts, EE. UU .: Editorial de la
Universidad de Massachusetts. Recuperado
de http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2051/login.aspx?
direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=516132&lang=es&site=eds-
live