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ത
𝑋−𝜇 𝑛
1. 𝑃 −𝑘 𝛼Τ
2
≤
𝜎
≤ 𝑘𝛼Τ2 = 1 − 𝛼
2. 𝑃 −𝑘𝛼Τ2 𝜎 ≤ 𝑋ത − 𝜇 𝑛 ≤ 𝑘𝛼Τ2 𝜎 = 1 − 𝛼
𝑘𝛼ൗ 𝜎 𝑘𝛼ൗ 𝜎
3. 𝑃 − 2
≤ 𝑋ത − 𝜇 ≤ 2
=1−𝛼
𝑛 𝑛
𝑘𝛼ൗ 𝜎 𝑘𝛼ൗ 𝜎
5. 𝑃 𝑋ത − 2
≤ 𝜇 ≤ 𝑋ത + 2
=1−𝛼
𝑛 𝑛
𝑘𝛼ൗ 𝜎
6. 𝑋ത ∓ 2
𝑛
3. 1 − 𝛼 = 0,95
4. 𝛼 = 1 − 0,95
5. 𝛼 = 0,05
𝛼
6. 2
= 0,025 → 𝑘𝛼Τ2 0,025 → 𝑧0,025
7. 𝐹 𝑘𝛼Τ2 = 0,975
8. 𝑘 = 1,96
Z = 1,96
Giorgio Cunto Morales
Notas
• ↑ 𝐼𝐶 → ↑ 𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑢𝑑 → ↓ 𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑐𝑖ó𝑛
• ↓ 𝐼𝐶 → ↓ 𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑢𝑑 → ↑ 𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑐𝑖ó𝑛
𝑘𝛼ൗ 𝜎
•ℎ=2 2
𝑛
𝜎2
• ത
𝑋~𝑁(𝜇, )
𝑛
ത
𝑋−𝜇 𝑛
•𝑍= ~𝑁 0,1
𝜎
𝑘𝛼ൗ 𝜎 𝑘𝛼ൗ 𝜎
•𝑃 − 2
≤ 𝑋ത − 𝜇 ≤ 2
=1−𝛼
𝑛 𝑛
𝑘𝛼ൗ 𝜎
• 𝑋ത ∓ 2
𝑛
Giorgio Cunto Morales
Intervalos de confianza para la media de una población
b. Con varianza poblacional desconocida:
ത
𝑋−𝜇 𝑛−1
• 𝑡= ~𝑇 𝑛 − 1
𝑆
ത
𝑋−𝜇 𝑛−1
• 𝑃 −𝑡𝛼Τ2 ≤ ≤ 𝑡𝛼Τ2 = 1 − 𝛼
𝑆
1. 𝑃 −𝑡𝛼Τ2 𝑆 ≤ 𝑋ത − 𝜇 𝑛 − 1 ≤ 𝑡𝛼Τ2 𝑆 = 1 − 𝛼
𝑡𝛼ൗ 𝑆 𝑡𝛼ൗ 𝑆
2. 𝑃 − 2
≤ 𝑋ത − 𝜇 ≤ 2
=1−𝛼
𝑛−1 𝑛−1
𝑡𝛼ൗ 𝑆 𝑡𝛼ൗ 𝑆
3. 𝑃 2
≥ −𝑋ത + 𝜇 ≥ − 2
=1−𝛼
𝑛−1 𝑛−1
𝑡𝛼ൗ 𝑆 𝑡𝛼ൗ 𝑆
4. 𝑃 − 2
≤ 𝜇 − 𝑋ത ≤ 2
=1−𝛼
𝑛−1 𝑛−1
𝑡𝛼ൗ 𝑆 𝑡𝛼ൗ 𝑆
5. 𝑃 𝑋ത − 2
𝑛−1
≤ 𝜇 ≤ 𝑋ത + 2
𝑛−1
=1−𝛼
𝑡𝛼ൗ 𝑆
6. 𝑋ത ∓ 𝑛−1
2
; 𝑡𝛼Τ2 → 𝑘𝛼Τ2 𝑐𝑢𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑜 𝑛 ≥ 30
ത
𝑋−𝜇 𝑛
• 𝑡= ~𝑇 𝑛 − 1
𝑆𝑐
ത
𝑋−𝜇 𝑛
• 𝑃 −𝑡𝛼Τ2 ≤ ≤ 𝑡𝛼Τ2 = 1 − 𝛼
𝑆𝑐
1. 𝑃 −𝑡𝛼Τ2 𝑆𝑐 ≤ 𝑋ത − 𝜇 𝑛 ≤ 𝑡𝛼Τ2 𝑆𝑐 = 1 − 𝛼
𝑡𝛼ൗ 𝑆𝑐 𝑡𝛼ൗ 𝑆𝑐
2. 𝑃 − 2
≤ 𝑋ത − 𝜇 ≤ 2
=1−𝛼
𝑛 𝑛
𝑡𝛼ൗ 𝑆𝑐 𝑡𝛼ൗ 𝑆𝑐
3. 𝑃 2
≥ −𝑋ത + 𝜇 ≥ − 2
=1−𝛼
𝑛 𝑛
𝑡𝛼ൗ 𝑆𝑐 𝑡𝛼ൗ 𝑆𝑐
4. 𝑃 − 2
≤ 𝜇 − 𝑋ത ≤ 2
=1−𝛼
𝑛 𝑛
𝑡𝛼ൗ 𝑆𝑐 𝑡𝛼ൗ 𝑆𝑐
5. 𝑃 𝑋ത − 2
𝑛
≤ 𝜇 ≤ 𝑋ത + 2
𝑛
=1−𝛼
𝑡𝛼ൗ 𝑆𝑐
6. 𝑋ത ∓ 2
𝑛
; 𝑡𝛼Τ2 → 𝑘𝛼Τ2 𝑐𝑢𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑜 𝑛 ≥ 30
𝜎2 𝑁 − 𝑛
𝑉𝑎𝑟 𝑋ത =
𝑛 𝑁−1
𝑁−𝑛
𝑁−1
Giorgio Cunto Morales
Intervalos de confianza para la media de una población finita
𝜎 2 𝑁−𝑛
• ത
𝑋~𝑁(𝜇, )
𝑛 𝑁−1
𝜎 2 𝑁−𝑛
• lim
𝑁→∞ 𝑛 𝑁−1
𝜎2 𝑁−𝑛 𝜎2
• lim =
𝑛 𝑁→∞ 𝑁−1 𝑛
𝜎 2 𝑁−𝑛
• ത
𝑋~𝑁(𝜇, )
𝑛 𝑁−1
ത
𝑋−𝜇
1. 𝑃 −𝑘𝛼Τ2 ≤ ≤ 𝑘𝛼Τ2 = 1 − 𝛼
𝜎2 (𝑁−𝑛)
𝑛 (𝑁−1)
ത
𝑋−𝜇
2. 𝑃 −𝑘𝛼Τ2 ≤ 𝜎2 (𝑁−𝑛)
≤ 𝑘𝛼Τ2 = 1 − 𝛼
𝑛 (𝑁−1)
𝜎2 (𝑁−𝑛) 𝜎2 (𝑁−𝑛)
3. 𝑃 −𝑘𝛼Τ2 ≤ 𝑋ത − 𝜇 ≤ 𝑘𝛼Τ2 =1−𝛼
𝑛 (𝑁−1) 𝑛 (𝑁−1)
𝜎2 (𝑁−𝑛) 𝜎2 (𝑁−𝑛)
3. 𝑃 −𝑘𝛼Τ2 ≤ 𝑋ത − 𝜇 ≤ 𝑘𝛼Τ2 =1−𝛼
𝑛 (𝑁−1) 𝑛 (𝑁−1)
𝜎2 (𝑁−𝑛) 𝜎2 (𝑁−𝑛)
4. 𝑃 𝑘𝛼Τ2 ≥ −𝑋ത + 𝜇 ≥ −𝑘𝛼Τ2 =1−𝛼
𝑛 (𝑁−1) 𝑛 (𝑁−1)
𝜎2 (𝑁−𝑛) 𝜎 2 (𝑁−𝑛)
5. 𝑃 −𝑘𝛼Τ2 ≤ 𝜇 − 𝑋ത ≤ 𝑘𝛼Τ2 =1−𝛼
𝑛 (𝑁−1) 𝑛 (𝑁−1)
𝜎2 (𝑁−𝑛) 𝜎2 (𝑁−𝑛)
6. 𝑃 𝑋ത − 𝑘𝛼Τ2 ≤ 𝜇 ≤ 𝑋ത + 𝑘𝛼Τ2 =1−𝛼
𝑛 (𝑁−1) 𝑛 (𝑁−1)
𝜎2 (𝑁−𝑛)
7. 𝑋ത ∓ 𝑘𝛼Τ2
𝑛 (𝑁−1)
ഥ
𝑋−𝜇
𝜎2 (𝑁−𝑛)
𝑛 (𝑁−1)
• 𝑡= ~𝑇 𝑛 − 1
𝑛𝑆2
𝜎2
𝑆 𝑁−𝑛
• 𝑋ത ∓ 𝑡𝛼Τ2 𝑠𝑖 𝑛 ≤ 31
𝑛−1 𝑁−1
𝑆 𝑁−𝑛
• 𝑋ത ∓ 𝑘𝛼Τ2 𝑠𝑖 𝑛 ≥ 31
𝑛−1 𝑁−1
ഥ
𝑋−𝜇
𝜎2 (𝑁−𝑛)
𝑛 (𝑁−1)
• 𝑡= ~𝑇 𝑛 − 1
(𝑛−1)𝑆2
𝑐
𝜎2
𝑆𝑐 𝑁−𝑛
• 𝑋ത ∓ 𝑡𝛼Τ2 𝑠𝑖 𝑛 ≤ 31
𝑛 𝑁−1
𝑆𝑐 𝑁−𝑛
• 𝑋ത ∓ 𝑘𝛼Τ2 𝑠𝑖 𝑛 ≥ 31
𝑛 𝑁−1
𝑘𝛼ൗ 𝜎 𝑘𝛼ൗ 𝜎
2. 𝑋ത + 𝑛
2
− 𝑋ത + 2
𝑛
𝑘𝛼ൗ 𝜎
2
3. ℎ = 2 𝑛
𝑘𝛼ൗ 𝜎
2
4. 𝑛=2
ℎ
𝑘𝛼ൗ 𝜎
5. 𝑛 = [2 2
]2
ℎ
𝑛𝑆 2 2
• 2 ~𝜒 𝑛 − 1 ; 𝑙𝑎 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑐𝑖ó𝑛 𝑛𝑜 𝑒𝑠 𝑠𝑖𝑚é𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑎
𝜎
𝑛𝑆 2
1. 𝑃 𝑎≤
𝜎2
≤𝑏 =1−𝛼
𝑎 1 𝑏
2. 𝑃 𝑛𝑆 2
≤ 𝜎2 ≤ 𝑛𝑆 2 = 1 − 𝛼
𝑛𝑆 2 𝑛𝑆 2
3. 𝑃 ≥ 𝜎2 ≥ =1−𝛼
𝑎 𝑏
𝑛𝑆 2 𝑛𝑆 2
4. 𝑃 ≤ 𝜎2 ≤ =1−𝛼
𝑏 𝑎
𝑛𝑆 2 𝛼 𝑛𝑆 2 𝛼
• 𝑃 ≤𝑎 = ; 𝑃 𝜎2 ≥𝑏 =
𝜎2 2 2
• 𝑎 = 𝜒 21−𝛼Τ ; 𝑏 = 𝜒 2 𝛼Τ
2 2
𝑛𝑆 2 𝑛𝑆 2 𝑛𝑆 2 𝑛𝑆 2
• 𝑃 ≤ 𝜎2 ≤ =1−𝛼 → 𝑃 ≤ 𝜎2 ≤ =1−𝛼
𝑏 𝑎 𝜒2 𝛼ൗ 𝜒2 1−𝛼ൗ
2 2
𝑛𝑆 2 𝑛𝑆 2
( 2 ; )
𝜒 𝛼ൗ 𝜒2 1−𝛼ൗ
2 2
𝑛𝑆 2 𝑛𝑆 2
( 2 ; 2
)
𝜒 𝛼ൗ 𝜒 1−𝛼ൗ
2 2
(𝑛−1)𝑆𝑐2 2 (𝑛−1)𝑆𝑐2
• 𝑃 ≤𝜎 ≤ =1−𝛼
𝜒2 𝛼ൗ 𝜒2 1−𝛼ൗ
2 2
(𝑛−1)𝑆𝑐2 (𝑛−1)𝑆𝑐2
( 2 ; 2 )
𝜒 𝛼ൗ 𝜒 1−𝛼ൗ
2 2
(𝑛 − 1)𝑆𝑐2 (𝑛 − 1)𝑆𝑐2
( 2
; 2
)
𝜒 𝛼ൗ 𝜒 1−𝛼ൗ
2 2
𝑛𝑆 2 2
• No se cumple que ~𝜒 𝑛−1
𝜎2
(𝑛−1)𝜎2
𝑆2− 𝑛𝑆 2 −(𝑛−1)𝜎2
𝑛
1. 𝑃 −𝑘𝛼Τ2 ≤ ≤ 𝑘𝛼Τ2 = 1 − 𝛼 → 𝑃 −𝑘𝛼Τ2 ≤ 𝑛 ≤ 𝑘𝛼Τ2 = 1 − 𝛼
2(𝑛−1)(𝜎2 )2 𝜎2 𝑛 2(𝑛−1)
𝑛2
𝑛𝑆2
( 2 − 𝑛−1 )
𝜎
3. 𝑃 −𝑘𝛼Τ2 ≤ ≤ 𝑘𝛼Τ2 = 1 − 𝛼
2(𝑛−1)
𝑛𝑆 2
4. 𝑃 𝑛 − 1 − 𝑘𝛼Τ2 2 𝑛 − 1 ≤
𝜎2
≤ 𝑛 − 1 + 𝑘𝛼Τ2 2(𝑛 − 1) = 1 − 𝛼
1 𝜎2 1
5. 𝑃 ≤
𝑛𝑆 2
≤ = 1−𝛼
𝑛−1 +𝑘𝛼ൗ 2 𝑛−1 𝑛−1 −𝑘𝛼ൗ 2(𝑛−1)
2 2
𝑛𝑆 2 2 𝑛𝑆 2
6. 𝑃 ≤𝜎 ≤ =1−𝛼
𝑛−1 +𝑘𝛼ൗ 2 𝑛−1 𝑛−1 −𝑘𝛼ൗ 2(𝑛−1)
2 2
𝑛𝑆 2 𝑛𝑆 2
• ;
𝑛−1 +𝑘𝛼ൗ 2 𝑛−1 𝑛−1 −𝑘𝛼ൗ 2(𝑛−1)
2 2
ො
(𝑝−𝑝) 𝑛
1. 𝑃 −𝑘𝛼Τ2 ≤ ≤ 𝑘𝛼Τ2 = 1 − 𝛼
𝑝(1−𝑝)
2. 𝑝Ƹ ≈ 𝑝
ො
(𝑝−𝑝) 𝑛 ො
𝑝(1− ො
𝑝) ො
𝑝(1− ො
𝑝)
3. 𝑃 −𝑘𝛼Τ2 ≤
ො ො
≤ 𝑘𝛼Τ2 = 1 − 𝛼 → 𝑃 −𝑘𝛼Τ2 𝑛
≤ (𝑝Ƹ − 𝑝) ≤ 𝑘𝛼Τ2 𝑛
=1−𝛼
𝑝(1−𝑝)
𝑝ො 1−𝑝ො ො
𝑝(1− ො
𝑝)
4. 𝑃 +𝑘𝛼Τ2 𝑛
≥ 𝑝 − 𝑝Ƹ ≥ −𝑘𝛼Τ2 𝑛
=1−𝛼
𝑝ො 1−𝑝ො ො
𝑝(1− ො
𝑝)
5. 𝑃 𝑝Ƹ − 𝑘𝛼Τ2 𝑛
≤ 𝑝 ≤ 𝑝Ƹ + 𝑘𝛼Τ2 𝑛
=1−𝛼
ො
𝑝(1− ො
𝑝)
• 𝑝ො ∓ 𝑘𝛼Τ2 𝑛
Giorgio Cunto Morales
Intervalos de confianza para proporción poblacional
• Si la población es finita se introduce el término de ajuste en la
varianza del estimador.
𝑝 1−𝑝 𝑁−𝑛
• 𝑝~𝑁
Ƹ 𝑝,
𝑛 𝑁−1
ො
𝑝(1− ො 𝑁−𝑛
𝑝)
• 𝑝Ƹ ∓ 𝑘𝛼Τ2
𝑛 𝑁−1
𝜎𝑥2 𝜎𝑦2
• 𝑋ത ത
− 𝑌~𝑁(𝜇 𝑥 − 𝜇𝑦 ; 𝑛 + )
𝑥 𝑛𝑦
ത 𝑌ത −(𝜇𝑥 −𝜇𝑦 )
𝑋−
• 𝑃 −𝑘𝛼Τ2 ≤ ≤ 𝑘𝛼Τ2 =1−𝛼
2
𝜎2
𝑥 +𝜎𝑦
𝑛𝑥 𝑛𝑦
𝜎𝑥2 𝜎𝑦2
• 𝑋ത − 𝑌ത ∓ 𝑘𝛼Τ2 +
𝑛𝑥 𝑛𝑦
𝑆𝑥2 𝑆𝑦2
• 𝑋ത ത
− 𝑌~𝑁(𝜇 𝑥 − 𝜇𝑦 ; 𝑛 −1 + )
𝑥 𝑛𝑦 −1
ത 𝑌ത −(𝜇𝑥 −𝜇𝑦 )
𝑋−
• 𝑃 −𝑘𝛼Τ2 ≤ ≤ 𝑘𝛼Τ2 =1−𝛼
2
𝑆2
𝑥 + 𝑆𝑦
𝑛𝑥 −1 𝑛𝑦 −1
𝑆𝑥2 𝑆𝑦2
• 𝑋ത − 𝑌ത ∓ 𝑘𝛼Τ2 +
𝑛𝑥 −1 𝑛𝑦 −1
ത 𝑌ത −(𝜇𝑥 −𝜇𝑦 )
𝑋−
• 𝑡= ~𝑡(𝑛𝑥 + 𝑛𝑦 + 2)
(𝑛𝑥 +𝑛𝑦 )(𝑛𝑥 𝑆2 2
𝑥 +𝑛𝑦 𝑆𝑦 )
(𝑛𝑥 𝑛𝑦 )(𝑛𝑥 +𝑛𝑦 −2)
ത 𝑌ത −(𝜇𝑥 −𝜇𝑦 )
𝑋−
• 𝑃 −𝑡𝛼Τ2 ≤ ≤ 𝑡𝛼Τ2 =1−𝛼
(𝑛𝑥 +𝑛𝑦 )(𝑛𝑥 𝑆2 2
𝑥 +𝑛𝑦 𝑆𝑦 )
(𝑛𝑥 𝑛𝑦 )(𝑛𝑥 +𝑛𝑦 +2)
𝑝𝑥 1−𝑝𝑥 𝑝𝑦 1−𝑝𝑦
•𝑝
ෞ𝑥 − 𝑝
ෞ𝑦 ~𝑁 𝑝𝑥 − 𝑝𝑦 , + =1−𝛼
𝑛𝑥 𝑛𝑦
ෞ𝑥 1−𝑝
𝑝 ෞ𝑥 𝑝ෞ𝑦 1−𝑝ෞ𝑦
• 𝑝
ෞ𝑥 − 𝑝
ෞ𝑦 ± 𝑘𝛼Τ2 +
𝑛𝑥 𝑛𝑦
ෞ𝑥 1−𝑝
𝑝 ෞ𝑥 𝑁𝑥 −𝑛𝑥 𝑝ෞ𝑦 1−𝑝ෞ𝑦 𝑁𝑦 −𝑛𝑦
• 𝑝
ෞ𝑥 − 𝑝
ෞ𝑦 ± 𝑘𝛼Τ2 +
𝑛𝑥 𝑁𝑥 −1 𝑛𝑦 𝑁𝑦 −1
𝑛𝑥 𝑆𝑥2 𝜎𝑦2 (𝑛𝑦 −1) 𝑛𝑦 𝑆𝑦2 (𝑛𝑥 −1) 𝜎𝑦2 𝑛𝑦 𝑆𝑦2 (𝑛𝑥 −1)
1. 𝑃 𝑎≤
𝑛𝑦 𝑆𝑦2 𝜎𝑥2 (𝑛𝑥 −1)
≤𝑏 =1−𝛼 →𝑃 𝑎
𝑛𝑥 𝑆𝑥2 (𝑛𝑦 −1)
≤
𝜎𝑥2
≤𝑏
𝑛𝑥 𝑆𝑥2 (𝑛𝑦 −1)
=1−𝛼
• 𝑎 = 𝐹1−𝛼Τ2 ; 𝑏 = 𝐹𝛼Τ2
2 𝜎2
𝑆𝑐𝑥 2
𝑆𝑐𝑦 𝜎𝑦2 2
𝑆𝑐𝑦
𝑦
1. 𝑃 𝑎≤ 2 𝜎2
𝑆𝑐𝑦
≤𝑏 =1−𝛼 →𝑃 𝑎 2
𝑆𝑐𝑥
≤
𝜎𝑥2
≤𝑏 2
𝑆𝑐𝑥
=1−𝛼
𝑥
2
1 𝑆𝑐𝑥 𝜎𝑥2 2
1 𝑆𝑐𝑥
2. 𝑃 2
𝑎 𝑆𝑐𝑦
≥
𝜎𝑦2
≥ 2
𝑏 𝑆𝑐𝑦
=1−𝛼
2
1 𝑆𝑐𝑥 𝜎𝑥2 2
1 𝑆𝑐𝑥
3. 𝑃 2
𝑏 𝑆𝑐𝑦
≤
𝜎𝑦2
≤ 2
𝑎 𝑆𝑐𝑦
=1−𝛼
2 𝜎2
𝑆𝑐𝑥 2 𝜎2
𝑆𝑐𝑥
𝑦 𝛼 𝑦 𝛼
• 𝑃 2 𝜎2 ≤ 𝑎 = ;𝑃 2 𝜎2 ≥𝑏 =
𝑆𝑐𝑦 𝑥 2 𝑆𝑐𝑦 𝑥 2
• 𝑎 = 𝐹1−𝛼Τ2 ; 𝑏 = 𝐹𝛼Τ2
2
1 𝑆𝑐𝑥 𝜎𝑥2 2
1 𝑆𝑐𝑥 2
1 𝑆𝑐𝑥 𝜎𝑥2 1 2
𝑆𝑐𝑥
• 𝑃 2 ≤ ≤ =1−𝛼 →𝑃 ≤ ≤ =1−𝛼
𝑏 𝑆𝑐𝑦 𝜎𝑦2 2
𝑎 𝑆𝑐𝑦 2
𝐹𝛼ൗ 𝑆𝑐𝑦 𝜎𝑦2 2
𝐹1−𝛼ൗ 𝑆𝑐𝑦
2 2
2
1 𝑆𝑐𝑥 1 𝑆𝑐𝑥2
( 2 ; 2 )
𝐹𝛼ൗ 𝑆𝑐𝑦 𝐹1−𝛼ൗ 𝑆𝑐𝑦
2 2
• Ejemplo 9.3
• Propuesto 9.16
• Propuesto 9.17
• Propuesto 9.20
• Propuesto 9.23
• Propuesto 9.32
• Propuesto 9.49
Giorgio Cunto Morales
Giorgio Cunto Morales
gcuntomo@ucab.edu.ve | https://www.lintedin.com/in/giorgiocmorales/