BALANCE GENERAL

0 1 2 3 4
ACTIVOS
Efectivo 1,100,000.00 - - - -
CXC 35,000,000.00 37,768,321.50 40,913,705.08 44,655,222.50 49,012,455.83
Inventarios 95,000,000.00 102,514,015.50 111,051,485.22 121,207,032.50 133,033,808.69
Provision de Inven. -10,000,000.00 -10,790,949.00 -11,689,630.02 -12,758,635.00 -14,003,558.81
total act. Corriente 121,100,000.00 129,491,388.00 140,275,560.28 153,103,620.00 168,042,705.72

Terrenos 120,000,000.00 128,028,000.00 137,117,988.00 147,950,309.05 160,526,085.32

Maquinaria y Equipo 63,500,000.00 70,575,435.00 71,525,364.12 72,449,387.41 67,625,779.02
Vehículos 43,000,000.00 36,701,360.00 29,480,367.42 21,206,210.96 11,504,369.45
Total act. Fijos 226,500,000.00 235,304,795.00 238,123,719.54 241,605,907.42 239,656,233.78

Activos Diferidos 27,300,000.00 24,271,975.00 20,796,228.18 16,829,347.65 12,173,228.14

Valorización de Act. Fijos 12,000,000.00 12,000,000.00 12,000,000.00 12,000,000.00 12,000,000.00

TOTAL ACTIVOS 386,900,000.00 401,068,158.00 411,195,508.00 423,538,875.07 431,872,167.64

PASIVOS
Sobregiros 4,500,000.00 17,716,669.51 47,453,914.60 69,192,392.53 76,012,123.60
CxP 47,000,000.00 50,717,460.30 54,941,261.11 59,965,584.50 65,816,726.41
Imporenta por Pagar 1,567,500.00 16,279,671.16 18,841,858.29 22,382,647.18 26,230,920.95
Total Pas. Corrientes 53,067,500.00 84,713,800.97 121,237,034.00 151,540,624.21 168,059,770.96

Deuda en M. Nal 55,000,000.00 55,000,000.00 41,250,000.00 27,500,000.00 13,750,000.00

Dueda en M. Ext 230,000,000.00 177,005,097.09 120,967,734.63 62,170,436.69 -

TOTAL PASIVOS 338,067,500.00 316,718,898.06 283,454,768.63 241,211,060.90 181,809,770.96

PATRIMONIO
Capital social 20,000,000.00 20,000,000.00 20,000,000.00 20,000,000.00 20,000,000.00
Reserva Legal 5,000,000.00 5,000,000.00 5,000,000.00 5,000,000.00 5,000,000.00
Utili. Ejercicio 3,182,500.00 33,052,665.69 38,254,681.98 45,443,556.39 53,256,718.30
Utili. Acumulada 3,000,000.00 6,182,500.00 39,235,165.69 77,489,847.67 122,933,404.06
Superavit por Valorizac. 12,000,000.00 12,000,000.00 12,000,000.00 12,000,000.00 12,000,000.00
Revalorización del Patri 5,650,000.00 8,114,094.25 13,250,891.71 22,394,410.12 36,872,274.32
TOTAL PATRIMONIO 48,832,500.00 84,349,259.94 127,740,739.38 182,327,814.17 250,062,396.68

Prueba - - - - -
 5

-
54,395,346.82
147,644,512.80
-15,541,527.66
186,498,331.96

176,097,115.60
65,429,108.95
-
241,526,224.54

6,677,015.63

12,000,000.00

446,701,572.14

10,164,656.56
73,045,180.02
29,811,304.51
113,021,141.09

-
-

113,021,141.09

20,000,000.00
5,000,000.00
60,525,981.89
176,190,122.36
12,000,000.00
59,964,326.80
333,680,431.05

-
ESTADO DE PERDIDAS Y GANACIAS
0 1 2 3 4
Ventas 195,000,000.00 210,423,505.50 227,947,785.46 248,793,382.49 273,069,396.79
Costo de Ventas 70,000,000.00 75,536,643.00 81,827,410.17 89,310,445.00 98,024,911.67
Mano de Obra Directa 28,000,000.00 29,593,200.00 31,398,385.20 33,564,873.78 36,082,239.31
Utilidad Bruta 97,000,000.00 105,293,662.50 114,721,990.10 125,918,063.72 138,962,245.81

Gastos de Admon. 22,000,000.00 23,251,800.00 24,670,159.80 26,372,400.83 28,350,330.89

Gastos de depreciación 3,500,000.00 17,017,055.00 18,707,215.91 20,724,585.96 22,486,175.77
Amortización (Diferidos) 1,200,000.00 4,854,395.00 5,199,057.05 5,609,782.55 6,086,614.07
Provisión de Inventarios 25,000,000.00 790,949.00 898,681.02 1,069,004.98 1,244,923.81

Total Gastos de Admon y Vtas 51,700,000.00 45,914,199.00 49,475,113.77 53,775,774.32 58,168,044.53

Utilidad operacional 45,300,000.00 59,379,463.50 65,246,876.32 72,142,289.40 80,794,201.28

Gasto de Intereses 5,000,000.00 20,726,155.31 18,798,652.70 14,335,673.92 8,795,694.50

Diferencia en cambio 4,500,000.00 4,505,097.09 2,964,336.57 1,686,569.38 -

Utilidad Antes de Ajustes 35,800,000.00 34,148,211.11 43,483,887.05 56,120,046.10 71,998,506.77

Corrección Monetaria -31,050,000.00 15,184,125.75 13,612,653.21 11,706,157.46 7,489,132.48

Utilidad antes de Impuestos 4,750,000.00 49,332,336.86 57,096,540.26 67,826,203.56 79,487,639.25

Imporenta 1,567,500.00 16,279,671.16 18,841,858.29 22,382,647.18 26,230,920.95

Utilidad neta 3,182,500.00 33,052,665.69 38,254,681.98 45,443,556.39 53,256,718.30

 5
303,059,789.43
108,790,693.64
39,221,394.13
155,047,701.66

30,816,809.68
25,032,964.92
6,677,015.63
1,537,968.85

64,064,759.08

90,982,942.58

2,304,362.50
-

88,678,580.08

1,658,706.33

90,337,286.41

29,811,304.51

60,525,981.89
PARAMETROS MACROECONOMICOS
0 1 2 3 4 5
Inflacion interna 5.69% 6.10% 6.90% 7.50% 8.70%
P.A.A.G. 6.69% 7.10% 7.90% 8.50% 9.70%
Inflación externa 3.00% 3.50% 4.00% 4.50% 5.00%
Devaluación 2.61% 2.51% 2.79% 2.87% 3.52%
Tasa de cambio inicial 3,615.00 3,709.41 3,802.59 3,908.63 4,020.84
Tasa de cambio final 3,615.00 3,709.41 3,802.59 3,908.63 4,020.84 4,162.52
Tasa de cambio Promedio 3,661.90 3,755.71 3,855.25 3,964.34 4,091.07
DTF 4.06% 6.09% 6.53% 7.38% 8.03% 9.31%
PRIME 5.70% 6.20% 6.70% 7.20% 7.70%
LIBOR 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00
Imporenta 33% 33% 33% 33% 33%
PARAMETROS OPERACIONALES
0 1 2 3 4 5
Crecimiento Real de Ventas 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%
Crecimiento nominal 7.91% 8.33% 9.14% 9.76% 10.98%
Costo de Ventas (% ventas) 35.90% 35.90% 35.90% 35.90% 35.90% 35.90%
provisión Invent. (% Invent) -10.53% -10.53% -10.53% -10.53% -10.53% -10.53%
Rotacion cxc 65.51 65.51 65.51 65.51 65.51 65.51
Rotación Inventarios 495.36 495.36 495.36 495.36 495.36 495.36
Rotación cxp 245.07 245.07 245.07 245.07 245.07 245.07
CxC 37,768,321.50 40,913,705.08 44,655,222.50 49,012,455.83 54,395,346.82
Inventarios 102,514,015.50 111,051,485.22 121,207,032.50 133,033,808.69 147,644,512.80
CxP 50,717,460.30 54,941,261.11 59,965,584.50 65,816,726.41 73,045,180.02
Inversion en maquin. Equipo 10,000,000.00 4,500,000.00 5,000,000.00 - 3,333,000.00
MODELO DE DEUDA NACIONAL
0 1 2 3 4
COSTO DE LA DEUDA 13.54% 13.98% 14.83% 15.48%
SALDO INICIAL $ 55,000,000.00 $ 55,000,000.00 $ 41,250,000.00 $ 27,500,000.00
INTERESES $ 7,446,065.00 $ 7,687,350.00 $ 6,118,612.50 $ 4,255,625.00
AMORTIZACION $ - $ 13,750,000.00 $ 13,750,000.00 $ 13,750,000.00
SALDO FINAL $ 55,000,000.00 $ 55,000,000.00 $ 41,250,000.00 $ 27,500,000.00 $ 13,750,000.00

MODELO DE DEUDA EXTRANJERA

0 1 2 3 4
COSTO DEUDA 5.70% 6.20% 6.70% 7.20%
SALDO INICIAL US 63,623.79 47,717.84 31,811.89 15,905.95
INTERESES US 3,626.56 2,958.51 2,131.40 1,145.23
AMORTIZACION US 15,905.95 15,905.95 15,905.95 15,905.95
SALDO FINAL US 63,623.79 47,717.84 31,811.89 15,905.95 -

SALDO INICIAL $ 230,000,000.00 177,005,097.09 120,967,734.63 62,170,436.69

INTERESES $ 13,280,090.31 11,111,302.70 8,217,061.42 4,540,069.50
AMORTIZACION $ 57,500,000.00 59,001,699.03 60,483,867.31 62,170,436.69
SALDO FINAL $ 177,005,097.09 120,967,734.63 62,170,436.69 -
DIFERENCIA CAMBIO 4,505,097.09 2,964,336.57 1,686,569.38 -
 5
16.76%
$ 13,750,000.00
$ 2,304,362.50
$ 13,750,000.00
$ -

5
7.70%
-
-
-
-

-
-
-
-
-
MODELOS DE LOS ACTIVOS FIJOS

MAQUINARIA Y EQUIPO
0 1 2 3 4 5
PAAG 0.00% 6.69% 7.10% 7.90% 8.50% 9.70%
Vida util 10 10 10 10 10 10
saldo inicial 63,500,000.0 67,748,150.0 72,558,268.7 78,290,371.9 84,945,053.5
Ajust act. Fijo 4,248,150.0 4,810,118.7 5,732,103.2 6,654,681.6 8,239,670.2
Act. Ajustado 67,748,150.0 72,558,268.7 78,290,371.9 84,945,053.5 93,184,723.7
Gasto Depreci 6,774,815.0 7,255,826.9 7,829,037.2 8,494,505.3 9,318,472.4
Dep. acum ajustar - 6,774,815.0 14,511,653.7 23,487,111.6 33,978,021.4
Ajust. Dep acum ajustar - 481,011.9 1,146,420.6 1,996,404.5 3,295,868.1
dep. acum ajustada 6,774,815.0 14,511,653.7 23,487,111.6 33,978,021.4 46,592,361.8
saldo final 63,500,000.0 60,973,335.0 58,046,614.9 54,803,260.3 50,967,032.1 46,592,361.8

VEHICULOS
0 1 2 3 4 5
PAAG 0.00% 6.69% 7.10% 7.90% 8.50% 9.70%
Vida util 5 5 5 5 5 5
saldo inicial 43,000,000.0 45,876,700.0 49,133,945.7 53,015,527.4 57,521,847.2
Ajust act. Fijo 2,876,700.0 3,257,245.7 3,881,581.7 4,506,319.8 5,579,619.2
Act. Ajustado 45,876,700.0 49,133,945.7 53,015,527.4 57,521,847.2 63,101,466.4
Gasto Depreci 9,175,340.0 9,826,789.1 10,603,105.5 11,504,369.4 12,620,293.3
Dep. acum ajustar - 9,175,340.0 19,653,578.3 31,809,316.4 46,017,477.8
Ajust. Dep acum ajustar - 651,449.1 1,552,632.7 2,703,791.9 4,463,695.3
dep. acum ajustada 9,175,340.0 19,653,578.3 31,809,316.4 46,017,477.8 63,101,466.4
saldo final 43,000,000.0 36,701,360.0 29,480,367.4 21,206,211.0 11,504,369.4 -

TERRENOS
0 1 2 3 4 5
PAAG 0.00% 6.69% 7.10% 7.90% 8.50% 9.70%
Vida util 0 0 0 0 0 0
saldo inicial 120,000,000.0 ### ### ### ###
Ajust act. Fijo 8,028,000.0 9,089,988.0 10,832,321.1 12,575,776.3 15,571,030.3
Act. Ajustado 128,028,000.0 ### ### ### ###
Gasto Depreci
Dep. acum ajustar
Ajust. Dep acum ajustar
dep. acum ajustada
saldo final 120,000,000.0 128,028,000.0 ### ### ### ###

MAQUINARIA Y EQUIPO
1 0 1 2 3 4 5
PAAG 0.00% 6.69% 7.10% 7.90% 8.50% 9.70%
Vida util 10 10 10 10 10 10
saldo inicial 10,000,000.0 10,669,000.0 11,426,499.0 12,329,192.4 13,377,173.8
Ajust act. Fijo 669,000.0 757,499.0 902,693.4 1,047,981.4 1,297,585.9
Act. Ajustado 10,669,000.0 11,426,499.0 12,329,192.4 13,377,173.8 14,674,759.6
Gasto Depreci 1,066,900.0 1,142,649.9 1,232,919.2 1,337,717.4 1,467,476.0
Dep. acum ajustar - 1,066,900.0 2,285,299.8 3,698,757.7 5,350,869.5
Ajust. Dep acum ajustar - 75,749.9 180,538.7 314,394.4 519,034.3
dep. acum ajustada 1,066,900.0 2,285,299.8 3,698,757.7 5,350,869.5 7,337,379.8
saldo final 0 9,602,100.0 9,141,199.2 8,630,434.7 8,026,304.3 7,337,379.8

MAQUINARIA Y EQUIPO
2 0 1 2 3 4 5
PAAG 0.00% 6.69% 7.10% 7.90% 8.50% 9.70%
Vida util 10 10 10 10 10 10
saldo inicial - 4,500,000.0 4,819,500.0 5,200,240.5 5,642,260.9
Ajust act. Fijo - 319,500.0 380,740.5 442,020.4 547,299.3
Act. Ajustado - 4,819,500.0 5,200,240.5 5,642,260.9 6,189,560.3
Gasto Depreci - 481,950.0 520,024.1 564,226.1 618,956.0
Dep. acum ajustar - - 481,950.0 1,040,048.1 1,692,678.3
Ajust. Dep acum ajustar - - 38,074.1 88,404.1 164,189.8
dep. acum ajustada - 481,950.0 1,040,048.1 1,692,678.3 2,475,824.1
saldo final 0 - 4,337,550.0 4,160,192.4 3,949,582.7 3,713,736.2

MAQUINARIA Y EQUIPO
3 0 1 2 3 4 5
PAAG 0.00% 6.69% 7.10% 7.90% 8.50% 9.70%
Vida util 10 10 10 10 10 10
saldo inicial - - 5,000,000.0 5,395,000.0 5,853,575.0
Ajust act. Fijo - - 395,000.0 458,575.0 567,796.8
Act. Ajustado - - 5,395,000.0 5,853,575.0 6,421,371.8
Gasto Depreci - - 539,500.0 585,357.5 642,137.2
Dep. acum ajustar - - - 539,500.0 1,170,715.0
Ajust. Dep acum ajustar - - - 45,857.5 113,559.4
dep. acum ajustada - - 539,500.0 1,170,715.0 1,926,411.5
saldo final 0 - - 4,855,500.0 4,682,860.0 4,494,960.2

MAQUINARIA Y EQUIPO
4 0 1 2 3 4 5
PAAG 0.00% 6.69% 7.10% 7.90% 8.50% 9.70%
Vida util 10 10 10 10 10 10
saldo inicial - - - - -
Ajust act. Fijo - - - - -
Act. Ajustado - - - - -
Gasto Depreci - - - - -
Dep. acum ajustar - - - - -
Ajust. Dep acum ajustar - - - - -
dep. acum ajustada - - - - -
saldo final 0 - - - - -

MAQUINARIA Y EQUIPO
5 0 1 2 3 4 5
PAAG 0.00% 6.69% 7.10% 7.90% 8.50% 9.70%
Vida util 10 10 10 10 10 10
saldo inicial - - - - 3,333,000.0
Ajust act. Fijo - - - - 323,301.0
Act. Ajustado - - - - 3,656,301.0
Gasto Depreci - - - - 365,630.1
Dep. acum ajustar - - - - -
Ajust. Dep acum ajustar - - - - -
dep. acum ajustada - - - - 365,630.1
saldo final 0 - - - - 3,290,670.9

MAQUINARIA Y EQUIPO
RESUMEN 0 1 2 3 4 5
saldo inicial 73,500,000.0 82,917,150.0 93,804,267.7 ### ###
Ajust act. Fijo 4,917,150.0 5,887,117.7 7,410,537.1 8,603,258.4 10,975,653.1
Act. Ajustado 78,417,150.0 88,804,267.7 ### ### ###
Gasto Depreci 7,841,715.0 8,880,426.8 10,121,480.5 10,981,806.3 12,412,671.6
Dep. acum ajustar - 7,841,715.0 17,278,903.5 28,765,417.4 42,192,284.2
Ajust. Dep acum ajustar - 556,761.8 1,365,033.4 2,445,060.5 4,092,651.6
dep. acum ajustada 7,841,715.0 17,278,903.5 28,765,417.4 42,192,284.2 58,697,607.4
saldo final 0 70,575,435.0 71,525,364.1 72,449,387.4 67,625,779.0 65,429,108.9
CORRECCION MONETARIA 15,821,850.0 17,026,140.4 19,206,773.8 20,536,502.1 23,569,955.7

MODELO DE ACTIVOS DIFERIDOS

0 1 2 3 4 5
PAAG 0.00% 6.69% 7.10% 7.90% 8.50% 9.70%
Vida util 6 6 6 6 6 6
saldo inicial 27,300,000.0 29,126,370.0 31,194,342.3 33,658,695.3 36,519,684.4
Ajust act. Fijo 1,826,370.0 2,067,972.3 2,464,353.0 2,860,989.1 3,542,409.4
Act. Ajustado 29,126,370.0 31,194,342.3 33,658,695.3 36,519,684.4 40,062,093.8
Gasto Amortizacion 4,854,395.0 5,199,057.0 5,609,782.6 6,086,614.1 6,677,015.6
Amortiz. acum ajustar - 4,854,395.0 10,398,114.1 16,829,347.7 24,346,456.3
Ajust. Amort acum ajustar - 344,662.0 821,451.0 1,430,494.6 2,361,606.3
Amort. acum ajustada 4,854,395.0 10,398,114.1 16,829,347.7 24,346,456.3 33,385,078.2
saldo final - 24,271,975.0 20,796,228.2 16,829,347.7 12,173,228.1 6,677,015.6

Correccion mon act. Dif 1,826,370.0 1,723,310.2 1,642,902.0 1,430,494.6 1,180,803.1

correccion mo. Activos 17,648,220.0 18,749,450.7 20,849,675.9 21,966,996.7 24,750,758.8

CAPITAL DE TRABAJO
0 1 2 3 4 5
FONDOS
CXP 47,000,000.0 50,717,460.3 54,941,261.1 59,965,584.5 65,816,726.4 73,045,180.0
TOTAL FONDOS 47,000,000.0 50,717,460.3 54,941,261.1 59,965,584.5 65,816,726.4 73,045,180.0

USOS
CXC 35,000,000.0 37,768,321.5 40,913,705.1 44,655,222.5 49,012,455.8 54,395,346.8
INVENTARIOS 95,000,000.0 102,514,015.5 111,051,485.2 121,207,032.5 133,033,808.7 147,644,512.8
TOTAL USOS 130,000,000.0 140,282,337.0 151,965,190.3 165,862,255.0 182,046,264.5 202,039,859.6

NECESIDADES K.W. -83,000,000.0 -89,564,876.7 -97,023,929.2 -105,896,670.5 -116,229,538.1 -128,994,679.6

INCREMENTO K.W. N.A. -6,564,876.7 -7,459,052.5 -8,872,741.3 -10,332,867.6 -12,765,141.5
FLUJO CAJA
0 1 2 3 4 5
UTILIDAD OPERACIONAL 59,379,463.5 65,246,876.3 72,142,289.4 80,794,201.3 90,982,942.6
DEPRECIACIÓN 17,017,055.0 18,707,215.9 20,724,586.0 22,486,175.8 25,032,964.9
AMORTIZACIÓN 4,854,395.0 5,199,057.0 5,609,782.6 6,086,614.1 6,677,015.6
PROVISION INVENTARIO 790,949.0 898,681.0 1,069,005.0 1,244,923.8 1,537,968.9
INCREMENTO K.W. -6,564,876.7 -7,459,052.5 -8,872,741.3 -10,332,867.6 -12,765,141.5
INVERSION ACT FIJOS 10,000,000.0 4,500,000.0 5,000,000.0 - 3,333,000.0
IMPUESTO DE RENTA 1,567,500.0 16,279,671.2 18,841,858.3 22,382,647.2 26,230,921.0
AMORTIZACÍON DEUDA 57,500,000.0 72,751,699.0 74,233,867.3 75,920,436.7 13,750,000.0
GASTOS INTERESES 20,726,155.3 18,798,652.7 14,335,673.9 8,795,694.5 2,304,362.5
SALDO DEL PERIODO -14,316,669.5 -29,737,245.1 -21,738,477.9 -6,819,731.1 65,847,467.0

CAJA INICIAL -3,400,000.0 -17,716,669.5 -47,453,914.6 -69,192,392.5 -76,012,123.6

CAJA FINAL -3400000 -17,716,669.5 -47,453,914.6 -69,192,392.5 -76,012,123.6 -10,164,656.6

EFECTIVO - - - - -
SOBREGIRO 17,716,669.5 47,453,914.6 69,192,392.5 76,012,123.6 10,164,656.6
CORRECCION MONETRIA
0 1 2 3 4
PAAG 0.00% 6.69% 7.10% 7.90% 8.50%
TOTAL PATRIMONIO 48,832,500.0 84,349,259.9 127,740,739.4 182,327,814.2 250,062,396.7
SUPERAVIT VALORIZACIÓN 12,000,000.0 12,000,000.0 12,000,000.0 12,000,000.0 12,000,000.0
PATRIMONIO AJUSTABLE 36,832,500.0 72,349,259.9 115,740,739.4 170,327,814.2 238,062,396.7

C. MONETARIA PATRIMONIO 2,464,094.3 5,136,797.5 9,143,518.4 14,477,864.2

C. MONETARIA ACTIVOS 17,648,220.0 18,749,450.7 20,849,675.9 21,966,996.7
C. MONETARIA BALANCE GENERAL 15,184,125.8 13,612,653.2 11,706,157.5 7,489,132.5
 5
9.70%
333,680,431.0
12,000,000.0
321,680,431.0

23,092,052.5
24,750,758.8
1,658,706.3
FLUJO DE CAJA LIBRE
0 1 2 3
UTILIDAD OPERACIONAL 59,379,463.5 65,246,876.3 72,142,289.4
CORRECCION MONETA 15,184,125.8 13,612,653.2 11,706,157.5
U. OPER. AJUSTADA 74,563,589.3 78,859,529.5 83,848,446.9
IMPUESTOS 24,605,984.5 26,023,644.7 27,669,987.5
CORRECCION MONETA 15,184,125.8 13,612,653.2 11,706,157.5
DEPRECIACION 17,017,055.0 18,707,215.9 20,724,586.0
AMORTIZACION 4,854,395.0 5,199,057.0 5,609,782.6
PROVISION DE INVENT 790,949.0 898,681.0 1,069,005.0
INCREMENTO K.W. -6,564,876.7 -7,459,052.5 -8,872,741.3
INVERSIONES 10,000,000.0 4,500,000.0 5,000,000.0
FLUJO CAJA LIBRE -386,900,000.0 40,871,001.3 52,069,133.1 58,002,934.1

VPN -$ 159,275,909.13
TIR -7.28%
TIO 12%
 4 5
80,794,201.3 90,982,942.6
7,489,132.5 1,658,706.3
88,283,333.8 92,641,648.9
29,133,500.1 30,571,744.1
7,489,132.5 1,658,706.3
22,486,175.8 25,032,964.9
6,086,614.1 6,677,015.6
1,244,923.8 1,537,968.9
-10,332,867.6 -12,765,141.5
- 3,333,000.0
71,145,547.2 77,561,006.4