Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
TUTOR
RICARDO JAVIER PINEDA
212066_39
In the company ABC several alternatives are presented to choose the best technology of four po
benefits of each alternative and degree of adaptation of the
Max profit
Maximum
El decisor que sigue este criterio identifica cada alternativa con el
Criteria Optimistic: mejor resultado posible, optando por la alternativa que corresponda
con dicho valor.
Maximum
1. Laplace, Wald or pessimistic, optimistic, Hurwicz and Savage criteria (Profit Matrix):
technology of four possible, whose performance depends on the adaptation of the workers who will manipulate th
ee of adaptation of the workers are given in the table, in millions of pesos ($). For Hurwicz please assume an alph
ente, la ausencia de
Este criterio representa un abanico de actitudes,
equivale a afirmar que Criteria the Hurwicz:
aplicar este criterio de decisión, se define el
bables.
VM Fits Fits
Alternative Does not fit
acceptably successfully
2198.8 Technology 1 2118 2168 2213
2218.4 Technology 2 2109 2158 2245
2222.6 Technology 3 2145 2177 2232
2215.8 Technology 4 2130 2166 2206
2223.2 Technology 5 2128 2165 2213
2223.2
Fits Fits
VM Alternative Does not fit
acceptably successfully
2118 Technology 1 2118 2168 2213
2109 Technology 2 2109 2158 2245
2145 Technology 3 2145 2177 2232
2130 Technology 4 2130 2166 2206
2128 Technology 5 2128 2165 2213
Maximum 2145 2177 2245
2145
Errors matrix
ada alternativa con el
Fits Fits
ativa que corresponda Alternative Does not fit
acceptably successfully
Technology 1 27 9 32
Technology 2 36 19 0
Technology 3 0 0 13
Technology 4 15 11 39
Technology 5 17 12 32
VM
2265
2328
2303
2322 Conclusion:
To choose the optimal level of decision, all the applied methods are compared
2335
that has the greatest utility is chosen, between technology 3 and 5, technology
exercise, because it is the one that has the greatest utility.
2335
fit Matrix):
workers who will manipulate the equipments that comprise it. The expected
Hurwicz please assume an alpha of 0,7.
𝑎𝑥 𝑅_𝑖𝑗
Optimistic Alpha 0.7
Pessimistic Alpha 0.3
Fits very
Fits well Maximum Minimum VM
well
2265 2230 2265 2118 2220.9
2252 2328 2328 2109 2262.3
2256 2303 2303 2145 2255.6
2255 2322 2322 2130 2264.4
2275 2335 2335 2128 2272.9
Maximum 2272.9
Fits very
Fits well
well
2265 2230
2252 2328
2256 2303
2255 2322
2275 2335
2275 2335
Fits very
Fits well VM
well
10 105 105
23 7 36
19 32 32
20 13 39
0 0 32
Minimum 32
clusion:
applied methods are compared and the technology
echnology 3 and 5, technology 5 is chosen for this
ne that has the greatest utility.
Cost matrix
LAPLACE
We average the values that we get a result and we get the minimum value
OPTIMIST
First we take out the minimum values and each point and then we select the general
minimum
Event
Alternative e1(610) e2(630) e3(680) e4(715)
SAVAGE
We take the minimum cost per event and then subtract it from each element, and then
build the new matrix
Event
Alternative e1(610) e2(630) e3(680) e4(715)
SAVAGE
We get the maximum value of each point and then subtract it to make the new
matrix
Event
Fits
Fits successfu
Alternative Does not fit Fits well
acceptably lly
Technology 1 2118 2168 2213 2265
Technology 2 2109 2158 2245 2252
Technology 3 2145 2177 2232 2256
Technology 4 2130 2166 2206 2255
Technology 5 2128 2165 2213 2275
Maximo 2145 2177 2245 2275
New matrix
Event
Fits
Fits successfu
Alternative Does not fit Fits well
acceptably lly
Technology 1 27 9 32 10
Technology 2 36 19 0 23
Technology 3 0 0 13 19
Technology 4 15 11 39 20
Technology 5 17 12 32 0
WALD O PESSIMIST
(1/5) Event
Alternative e1(610) e2(630)
e5(730) VE (A)
e1(610) 2109 2197
2332 2229 e2(630) 2112 2152
2315 2217.6 e3(680) 2137 2168
2317 2227.4 e4(715) 2110 2176
2331 2228.2 e5(730) 2136 2173
2329 2233.6
Min 2217.6
HURWICZ
e5(730) Valor
minimo Event
2332 2109
Alternative e1(610) e2(630)
2315 2112
2317 2137 e1(610) 2109 2197
2331 2110 e2(630) 2112 2152
2329 2136 e3(680) 2137 2168
e4(715) 2110 2176
Min 2109 e5(730) 2136 2173
New matrix
e1(610) 0 45
e2(630) 3 0
e5(730)
e3(680) 28 16
2332 e4(715) 1 24
2315 e5(730) 27 21
2317
2331
2329
2315
Fits very
well
2230
2328
2303
2322
2335
2335
Fits very
Maximum
well
105 105
7 36
32 32
13 39
0 32
Minimum 32
of each alternative, with the result, we choose the minimum
native
Event
e3(680) e4(715) e5(730) Maximum
2236 2271 2332 2332
2228 2281 2315 2315
2240 2275 2317 2317
2238 2286 2331 2331
2243 2287 2329 2329
Min 2315
values max (0.7) and Minimum (0.3) with this we carry out the exercise
Min 2172.9
Event
e3(680) e4(715) e5(730) Maximum
8 0 17 45
0 10 0 10
12 4 2 28
10 15 16 24
15 16 14 27
Min 10
3. Criterios de ejercer Laplace, o Wald, Hurwicz y Savage (matriz de costos) pesimista,
optimista:
Un almacén de productos terminados que arrienda sus servicios a las importaciones de los
EE.UU., debe planificar su nivel de suministro para satisfacer la demanda de sus clientes en
el día del amor y la amistad. El número exacto de cajas no se conoce, pero se espera que
caiga en una de cinco categorías: 580, 720, 750, 790 y 830 cajas. Hay por lo tanto cuatro
niveles de suministro. Se espera que la desviación del número de tolvas para dar lugar a
costes adicionales, ya sea debido al suministro excesivo o porque la demanda no puede ser
satisfecha. La siguiente tabla muestra los costos en cientos de dólares (US $). Por favor
Hurwicz suponer un alfa de 0,55.
Event
ALTERNATIVE E1(580) E2(720) E3(750) E4(790) E5(830)
SOLUCIONES
Event
ALTERNATIVE E1(580) E2(720) E3(750) E4(790) E5(830)
E1(580) 1147
E2(720) 1109 LA CATEGORÍA 5 ES LA MAS ALTA ENTRE
E3(750) 1106 LAS PEORES
E4(790) 1134
E5(830) 1149
MODELO MAXIMAX
Event
ALTERNATIVE E1(580) E2(720) E3(750) E4(790) E5(830)
E1(580) 1311
E2(720) 1314 LA CATEGORÍA 4 ES LA MAS ALTA ENTRE
E3(750) 1346 LAS MEJORES
E4(790) 1349
E5(830) 1328
Modelo de Hurwicz
Event
ALTERNATIVE E1(580) E2(720) E3(750) E4(790) E5(830)
Event
ALTERNATIVE E1(580) E2(720) E3(750) E4(790) E5(830)
Modelo de Savage
Event
ALTERNATIVE E1(580) E2(720) E3(750) E4(790) E5(830)
Event
ALTERNATIVAS E1(580) E2(720) E3(750) E4(790) E5(830)
E1(580) 2 45 11 15 38
E2(720) 40 4 27 0 35
E3(750) 43 16 4 17 3
E4(790) 15 20 0 22 0
E5(830) 0 0 1 38 21
https://www.pdcahome.com/4655/modelos-para-la-toma-de-decisiones/
SUMA
111
106
83
57
60
Exercise 4. Game Theory method:
Graphical solutions are only applicable to games in which at least one of the players has only two strategies. Co
According to Table 4 find the value of the game by means of the graphical method applied to matrices 2 x n or m
Player 2
Strategy
A B
Ⅰ 27 33
Player 1
Ⅱ 19 25
Strategy A
X1 + X2 = 1
Replace X2 X2 = 1 - X1
Strategy A
Si X1 = 1 Ve = 27
Si X1 = 0 Ve = 19
Strategy B
X1 + X2 = 1
Replace X2 X2 = 1 - X1
Strategy B
Si X1 = 1 Ve = 33
Si X1 = 0 Ve = 25
Strategy C
X1 + X2 = 1
Replace X2 X2 = 1 - X1
Strategy A
Si X1 = 1 Ve = 38
Si X1 = 0 Ve = 31
Player 2
Strategy
A B
Ⅰ 27 33
Player 1
Ⅱ 19 25
Strategy 1 Strategy 2
Y1 + Y2 = 1 Y1 + Y2 = 1
Replace Y2 Y2 = 1 - Y1 Replace Y2
Strategy 1 Strategy 2
Si Y1 = 1 Ve = 27 Si Y1 = 1
Si Y1 = 0 Ve = 33 Si Y1 = 0
Strategy 3 Strategy 4
Y1 + Y2 = 1 Y1 + Y2 = 1
Replace Y2 Y2 = 1 - Y1 Replace Y2
Strategy 3 Strategy 4
Si Y1 = 1 Ve = 19 Si Y1 = 1
Si Y1 = 0 Ve = 25 Si Y1 = 0
Strategy 5 Strategy 6
Y1 + Y2 = 1 Y1 + Y2 = 1
Replace Y2 Y2 = 1 - Y1 Replace Y2
Strategy 5 Strategy 6
Si Y1 = 1 Ve = 33 Si Y1 = 1
Si Y1 = 0 Ve = 38 Si Y1 = 0
he players has only two strategies. Consider the following 2 x n game:
Player 2
C
38
31
Player 2
C
38
31
Strategy 2
Y2 = 1 - Y1
27Y1 + 38Y2
27Y1 + 38(1 - Y1)
27Y1 + 38 - 38Y1
-11Y1 + 38
Strategy 2
Ve = 27
Ve = 38
Strategy 4
Y2 = 1 - Y1
19Y1 + 31Y2
19Y1 + 31(1 - Y1)
19Y1 + 31 - 31Y1
-12Y1 + 31
Strategy 4
Ve = 19
Ve = 31
Strategy 6
Y2 = 1 - Y1
25Y1 + 31Y2
25Y1 + 31(1 - Y1)
25Y1 + 31 - 31Y1
-6Y1 + 31
Strategy 6
Ve = 25
Ve = 31
Las soluciones gráficas solo son aplicables a juegos en los que al
menos uno de los jugadores solo tiene dos estrategias. Considere el
siguiente juego m x 2:
Player 2
Strategy
A B
I 27 33
Player 1 II 19 25
II 33 37
Estrategia 1 Estrategia 2
P1+P2=1 P1+P2=1
Estrategia 3 Estrategia 4
P1+P2=1 P1+P2=1
Estrategia 5 Estrategia 6
P1+P2=1 P1+P2=1
40
35
30
25
20
0 1
Player 2
Strategy
A B
I 27 33
Player 1 II 19 25
II 33 37
Estrategia 1
Q1+Q2=1
Estrategia 3
Q1+Q2=1
40
35
30
25
20
0
Vesperado=27P1 + 33P2 P2=1-P1
Vesperado= 27P1 + 33(1-P1) Reemplazamos
Vesperado= 27P1+ 33-33P1
Vesperado=-6P1 + 33
Para estrategia 3
Si P1=1 Ve=19
Si P1=0 Ve=33
Para estrategia 6
Si P1=1 Ve=25
Si P1=0 Ve=27
Luego de 3 y de 4
Vesperado=-14P1 + 33 Estrategia 3
Vesperado=8P1 + 25 Estrategia 4
25-33
-8
P1 0.36363636
P2=1-P1= 1-(-8/-22)
P2= 0.63636364
Vesperado=-14P1 + 33 27.9090909
Estrategia 2
Q1+Q2=1
Si Q1=1 Ve=33
Si Q1=0 Ve=37
1
F.O Min Z Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5
87 1 0 0 0 0
F.O Max Z 87 Player B
P1 0 81 83 81 80 91
P2 0 84 83 86 86 82
Player A
P3 0 82 78 86 89 84
P4 1 87 87 91 89 88
P5 0 83 85 35 88 81
Suma 1 VE 87 87 91 89 88
Suma
1
VE
81 Max v 1
84
82
87
83
Microsoft Excel Answer Report
Worksheet: Exercise 6
Report Created:Thu Apr 02 2020 13:27:00 GMT-0500 (Hora est. Pacífico, Sudamérica)
Result: Solver found a solution. All constraints and optimality conditions are satisfied.
Engine: Standard LSGRG Nonlinear
Solution Time: 0 milliseconds
Iterations: 0
Subproblems: 0
Incumbent Solutions: 0
Constraints
Cell Original Value Final Value Lower Bound Upper Bound Slack
Microsoft Excel Sensitivity Report
Worksheet: Exercise 6
Report Created:Thu Apr 02 2020 13:27:00 GMT-0500 (Hora est. Pacífico, Sudamérica)
Engine: Standard LSGRG Nonlinear
Constraints
Final Lagrange
Cell Value Multiplier
REFERENCES
Pineda, R. (2017). Virtual learning object Unit 1 - Decision models under risks. [Video File]. Retrieved from htt
Sharma, J. (2016). Operations Research : Theory and Applications. (pp. 347-378), New Delhi: Laxmi Publicatio
deo File]. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/10596/13263
New Delhi: Laxmi Publications Pvt Ltd, v. Sixth edition. Retrieved from http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co/login?url=http://search.eb
o/login?url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=1950625&lang=es&site=eds-live&scope=site&ebv=EB
ds-live&scope=site&ebv=EB&ppid=pp_C