POBLACIÓN PROYECTO LOCALIDAD: HUAMANTLA

MUNICIPIO: HUAMANTLA
SERVICIO:

AÑO NUMERO DE T² P² (T)(P) Ln P Ln T ( Ln P ) ² ( Ln T ) ² (Ln T)(Ln P) (STi)(LnPi) (SPi)(LnTi)

(T) HABITANTES
(P)
1990 32,195 3,960,100 1,036,518,025 64,068,050 10.37957 7.59589 107.73540 57.69754 78.84204 20,655.337 244,549.676
1995 35,963 3,980,025 1,293,337,369 71,746,185 10.49025 7.59840 110.04526 57.73567 79.70908 20,928.041 273,261.235
2000 40,854 4,000,000 1,669,049,316 81,708,000 10.61776 7.60090 112.73683 57.77372 80.70456 21,235.520 310,527.269
2005 47,286 4,020,025 2,235,965,796 94,808,430 10.76397 7.60340 115.86304 57.81168 81.84276 21,581.759 359,534.341
2010 51,996 4,040,100 2,703,584,016 104,511,960 10.85892 7.60589 117.91619 57.84956 82.59177 21,826.433 395,475.856
10000 208,294 20,000,250.0 8,938,454,522 416,842,625 53.1105 38.0045 564.2967 288.8682 403.6902 106,227.090 1,583,348.378

AJUSTE LINEAL
DETERMINACION DEL COEFICIENTE "b"
P = a + bt
b = ( NS (TiPi) - (STi SPi)) / (NSTi² - (STi)²)
Donde N = Número total de datos (Censos historicos)= 5
Sti = Suma de los años con información
Spi = Suma del número de habitantes

N S ( Ti Pi) STi SPi NSTi² (STi)² N S ( Ti Pi) - STi SPi NSTi² - ( STi)² b

2084213125 2082940000 100001250 100000000 1273125 1250 1,018.50

DETERMINACION DEL COEFICIENTE "a"
a = ( Spi - bST) / N
S Pi b Sti N ( Spi - b Sti ) "a"

208,294 10185000 5 -9976706 -1995341.2

DETERMINACION DEL COEFICIENTE "r"
½
r = NSTiPi - STiSPi / (((NSTi² - (STi)²)) ((NSPi²)-(SPi)²)))
N S(Ti Pi) - (STi NSTi² - ( STi)² NSPi² SPi² NSPi² - SPi² NSTi² - ( STi)² * NSPi² - ( NSTi² - ( STi)² * NSPi² - "r"
SPi) col 2 col 3 col 4 col 5 SPi² SPi² ) ½ (col
col 1 / col 7
col 1 col 6 = ( col 2 * col 5) 6) ½
1,273,125 1250 44692272610 43386390436 1305882174 1632352717500 1277635.60 0.996470

AJUSTE EXPONENCIAL
La expresion general esta dada por la siguiente expresion:
bt
P= ae
Donde "a" y "b" son constantes que se obtienen mediante las siguientes ecuaciones:
b = ( NS (Ti LnPi) - (STi SLnPi)) / (NSTi² - (STi)²)
N S ( Ti LnPi) STi SLnPi col 2 NSTi² - (Sti)² N S ( Ti LnPi) - (STi "b"
col 1 col 3 col 5 = col 4 / col 3
SLnPi)
col 4 = col 1 - col 2

531135.4507 531104.6398 1250 30.81 0.024649

( SLnPi - Sti)/N
a= e e = 2.71828
SLnPi b STi S LnPi - bSti S LnPi - bSti "a"
col 1 col 2 col 3 col 4 = col 3 / N e col 4

53.1105 246.49 -193.38 -38.68 1.597867E-17

½
r = NSTi(LnPi) - STiSLnPi / (((NSTi² - (STi)²)) ((NS(LnPi)²)-(SLnPi)))
N STi LnPi - (STi NSTi² - ( STi)² NS (LnPi)² (S LnPi)² NS (LnPi)² - (S LnPi)² NSTi² - ( STi)² x NS ( NSTi² - ( STi)² x NS "r"
SLnPi) col 2 col 3 col 4 col 5 = col 3 - col 4 (LnPi)² - (S LnPi)² (LnPi)² - (S LnPi)² ) ½ col 1 / col 7
col 1 col 6 = ( col 2 * col 5)
(col 7) ½
30.811 1250 2821.484 2820.721 0.762 952.741 30.87 0.998198

AJUSTE LOGARITMICO
La expresion general esta dada por la siguiente expresion:

P = a + b ( Ln T)

La obtención de los coeficientes "a" y "b" se encuentran con las siguientes ecuaciones:

b = ( NS (Pi LnTi) - (SLnTi SPi)) / (NSLnTi)² - (SLnTi)²)

N S Pi LnTi STi SLnPi col 2 N S Pi LnTi - NS (LnTi)² ( S Ln Ti )² NS (LnTi)² - ( S Ln Ti )² "b"

col 1 col 4 col 5 col 6 = col 4 - col 5 col 7 = col 3 / col 6
STi SLnPi
col 3 = col 1 - col 2
 7916741.889 7916105.375 636.513 1444.34089 1444.34058 0.000313 2036809.577

a = (Spi - bSLnTi) / N

SPi b SLnTi N SPi - b SLnTi "a"

col 1 col 2 col 3 col 4 = col 1 - col 2

208,294 77407890.97 5 -77199596.97 -15439919.3939

½
r = NSPi(LnTi) - SLnTiSPi / (((NSLnTi² - (SLnTi)²)) ((NS(Pi)²)-(SPi)²))

N STi LnPi - (STi NS(LnTi)² - N S Pi² (S Pi)² N S Pi² - (S Pi)² NS(LnTi)² - (SLnTi)² x ( N ( NS(LnTi)² - (SLnTi)² x ( "r"
SLnPi) (SLnTi)² col 3 col 4 col 5 = col 3 - col 4 S Pi² - (S Pi)²) N S Pi² - (S Pi)²) ½ col 1 / col 7
col 1 col 2 col 6 = ( col 2 * col 5) ½
(col 7)
636.51 0.000313 4.47E+10 4.34E+10 1305882174 408094.854 638.82 0.996385

AJUSTE POTENCIAL
La expresion general esta dada por la siguiente expresion:
P = a + t²
Los coeficientes "a" y "b" se obtienen con las expresiones siguientes:

b = ( NS (LnTi)( LnPi) - (SLnTi SLnPi)) / (NSLnTi² - (SLnTi)²)

N S ( LnTi) (SLnTi x SLnPi) NS (LnTi)² S ( Ln Ti )² N S ( LnTi) (LnPi) - NS (LnTi)² - S ( Ln Ti )² "b"

(LnPi) col 2 col 3 col 4 (SLnTi x SLnPi) col 6 = col 3 - col 4 col 7 = col 5 / col 6
col 1 col 5 = col 1 - col 2

2018.4510 2018.4356 1444.3409 1444.3406 0.015406 0.000313 49.2976

a = e ( SLnPi - bSLnti)/N e = 2.71828

SLnPi b SLnTi N SLnPi - b SLnTi (SLnPi - b SLnTi)/N "a"

col 1 col 2 col 3

53.1105 1873.53 5.00 -1820.42 -364.08 7.60E-159

½
r = NS(LnTi)(LnPi) - SLnTiSLnPi / (((NSLnTi² - (SLnTi)²)) ((NS(LnPi)²)-(SLnPi)²))
N SLnTi LnPi - NSLnTi² - NS (LnPi)² (S LnPi)² NS (LnPi)² - (S LnPi)² NSLnTi² - (SLnTi)² x NS ( NSLnTi² - (SLnTi)² x "r"
(SLnTi SLnPi) (SLnTi)² col 3 col 4 col 5 = col 3 - col 4 (LnPi)² - (S LnPi)² NS (LnPi)² - (S LnPi)²) ½ col 1 / col 7
col 1 col 2 col 6 = ( col 2 * col 5) (col 7) ½
0.01541 0.000313 2821.484 2820.721 0.762 0.000238 0.015433 0.998210

TIPO DE AJUSTE COEFICIENTE "a" COEFICIENTE "b" FACTOR "r"

LINEAL -1995341.2 1,018.50 0.996470

EXPONENCIAL 1.597867E-17 0.024649 0.998198

LOGARITMICO -15439919.3939 2036809.577 0.996385

POTENCIAL 7.60E-159 49.2976 0.998210

APLICANDO LAS SIGUIENTES ECUACIONES OBTENDREMOS LAS POBLACION BUSCADA

TIPO DE AJUSTE ECUACION

AJUSTE LINEAL P = a + bt

AJUSTE EXPONENCIAL P = a e bt

AJUSTE LOGARITMICO P = a + b ( Ln T)

AJUSTE POTENCIAL P = a + t²
 CENSO AJUSTE EXPONENCIAL LOGARITMICA POTENCIAL PROMEDIO
AÑO
HISTORICO LINEAL e bt P = a e bt Ln T b (Ln T) P = a + b ( Ln T) T (b) P = a Tb
1990 32,195 31,474 2.0069E+21 32,068 7.59589 15471381 31,462 4.22E+162 32,066
1995 35,963 36,566 2.27012E+21 36,273 7.598399 15476493 36,573 4.78E+162 36,288
2000 40,854 41,659 2.56787E+21 41,031 7.600902 15481591 41,672 5.40E+162 41,054
2005 47,286 46,751 2.90467E+21 46,413 7.603399 15486677 46,757 6.11E+162 46,432
2010 51,996 51,844 3.28564E+21 52,500 7.60589 15491750 51,830 6.91E+162 52,497
2011 52,862 3.36764E+21 53,810 7.606387 15492763 52,843 7.08E+162 53,801 53,329
2012 53,881 3.45168E+21 55,153 7.606885 15493775 53,856 7.26E+162 55,135 54,506
2013 54,899 3.53781E+21 56,530 7.607381 15494787 54,868 7.44E+162 56,503 55,700
2014 55,918 3.6261E+21 57,940 7.607878 15495799 55,880 7.62E+162 57,903 56,910
2015 56,936 3.71659E+21 59,386 7.608374 15496810 56,891 7.81E+162 59,338 58,138
2016 57,955 3.80934E+21 60,868 7.608871 15497821 57,901 8.00E+162 60,807 59,383
2017 58,973 3.9044E+21 62,387 7.609367 15498831 58,911 8.20E+162 62,312 60,646
2018 59,992 4.00183E+21 63,944 7.609862 15499840 59,921 8.41E+162 63,853 61,927
2019 61,010 4.1017E+21 65,540 7.610358 15500849 60,930 8.61E+162 65,432 63,228
2020 62,029 4.20405E+21 67,175 7.610853 15501858 61,938 8.83E+162 67,049 64,548
2021 63,047 4.30897E+21 68,852 7.611348 15502866 62,947 9.04E+162 68,705 65,887
2022 64,066 4.4165E+21 70,570 7.611842 15503873 63,954 9.27E+162 70,401 67,248
2023 65,084 4.52671E+21 72,331 7.612337 15504881 64,961 9.50E+162 72,138 68,629
2024 66,103 4.63967E+21 74,136 7.612831 15505887 65,968 9.73E+162 73,917 70,031
2025 67,121 4.75546E+21 75,986 7.613325 15506893 66,974 9.97E+162 75,739 71,455
2026 68,140 4.87413E+21 77,882 7.613819 15507899 67,979 1.02E+163 77,605 72,902
2027 69,158 4.99576E+21 79,826 7.614312 15508904 68,985 1.05E+163 79,516 74,371
2028 70,177 5.12043E+21 81,818 7.614805 15509908 69,989 1.07E+163 81,473 75,864
2029 71,195 5.24821E+21 83,859 7.615298 15510913 70,993 1.10E+163 83,477 77,381
2030 72,214 5.37918E+21 85,952 7.615791 15511916 71,997 1.13E+163 85,530 78,923
2031 73,232 5.51342E+21 88,097 7.616284 15512919 73,000 1.15E+163 87,632 80,490
2032 74,251 5.65101E+21 90,296 7.616776 15513922 74,003 1.18E+163 89,784 82,083
2033 75,269 5.79203E+21 92,549 7.617268 15514924 75,005 1.21E+163 91,988 83,703
2034 76,288 5.93657E+21 94,858 7.61776 15515926 76,006 1.24E+163 94,246 85,350
2035 77,306 6.08471E+21 97,226 7.618251 15516927 77,007 1.27E+163 96,557 87,024
2036 78,325 6.23656E+21 99,652 7.618742 15517927 78,008 1.30E+163 98,924 88,727
2037 79,343 6.39219E+21 102,139 7.619233 15518928 79,008 1.33E+163 101,348 90,460
2038 80,362 6.55171E+21 104,688 7.619724 15519927 80,008 1.37E+163 103,830 92,222
2039 81,380 6.71521E+21 107,300 7.620215 15520926 81,007 1.40E+163 106,372 94,015
2040 82,399 6.88278E+21 109,978 7.620705 15521925 82,006 1.43E+163 108,974 95,839