Una empresa que fabrica muebles ha observado que sus ventas han

disminuido al paso de los meses, algunos directivos opinan que se

debe al aumento de los aranceles para la importación de materias
primas lo que encarece el precio de los productos y por lo tanto los
consumidores compran menos. Otros mencionan que se debe al
incremento del valor del dólar que genera sobrecostos en la compra
de materias prima haciendo que los productos sean más costosos y
con menos oportunidad de ser vendidos en el exterior. La dirección
requiere saber qué factor es más importante para priorizar las
medidas, Además de pronosticar las ventas para el próximo
trimestre
 Mes Arancel Variación dólar
Jan-20 $ 19.00 $2,214
Feb-20 $ 24.00 $2,208
Mar-20 $ 22.00 $2,219
 Independiente Independiente Dependiente
Mes Arancel Variación dólar Ventas
Jan-18 $33 $2,214 $550,000
Feb-18 $30 $2,208 $590,000
Mar-18 $33 $2,396 $510,000
Apr-18 $27 $2,110 $605,000
May-18 $31 $2,232 $557,000
Jun-18 $35 $2,215 $570,000
Jul-18 $30 $1,915 $590,000
Aug-18 $30 $2,104 $600,100
Sep-18 $28 $1,971 $621,500
Oct-18 $33 $2,112 $603,500
Nov-18 $31 $2,169 $510,000
Dec-18 $33 $2,187 $578,160
Jan-19 $28 $2,013 $610,000
Feb-19 $25 $1,955 $654,501
Mar-19 $18 $1,839 $710,000
Apr-19 $17 $1,859 $686,111
May-19 $29 $2,037 $627,349
Jun-19 $25 $1,966 $650,695
Jul-19 $12 $1,534 $748,000
Aug-19 $28 $2,049 $623,521
Sep-19 $15 $1,665 $749,728
Oct-19 $21 $2,061 $619,522
Nov-19 $25 $1,987 $643,860
Dec-19 $17 $1,667 $730,750
Jan-20 $ 19.00 $2,214 $ 612,503.89
Feb-20 $ 24.00 $2,208 $ 594,628.34
Mar-20 $ 22.00 $2,219 $ 600,089.25

Y= 1119808.74-3810.82817*(X)-196.431398*(X)
 Arancel Ventas
$33 $550,000 ARANCEL VS VENTAS
$30 $590,000 Column G Linear (Column G)
$33 $510,000
$800,000
$27 $605,000
$700,000 f(x) = − 9283.78462735603 x + 867717.352239322
$31 $557,000 R² = 0.825050160520942
$35 $570,000 $600,000

$30 $590,000 $500,000

$30 $600,100

VENTAS
$400,000
$28 $621,500
$300,000
$33 $603,500
$200,000
$31 $510,000
$33 $578,160 $100,000

$28 $610,000 $0
$10 $15 $20 $25 $30
$25 $654,501
ARANCEL
$18 $710,000
$17 $686,111
$29 $627,349
$25 $650,695
$12 $748,000
$28 $623,521
$15 $749,728
$21 $619,522
$25 $643,860
$17 $730,750

Variación dólar Ventas

$2,214 $550,000 DÓLAR VS VENTAS
$2,208 $590,000 Column G Linear (Column G)
$2,396 $510,000 $800,000
$2,110 $605,000 f(x) = − 305.178582543582 x + 1238740.70845728
$700,000
$2,232 $557,000 R² = 0.870463915938909
$600,000
$2,215 $570,000
$1,915 $590,000 $500,000
VENTAS

$2,104 $600,100 $400,000

$1,971 $621,500 $300,000

$2,112 $603,500 $200,000
$2,169 $510,000 $100,000
$2,187 $578,160 $0
$2,013 $610,000 $1,450 $1,550 $1,650 $1,750 $1,850 $1,950 $2,050 $2

$1,955 $654,501 DÓLAR

$1,839 $710,000
$1,859 $686,111
$2,037 $627,349
$1,966 $650,695
$1,534 $748,000
$2,049 $623,521
$1,665 $749,728
$2,061 $619,522
$1,987 $643,860
$1,667 $730,750
NTAS
Linear (Column G)

17.352239322

$25 $30 $35 $40

ARANCEL

R VS VENTAS
Linear (Column G)

1238740.70845728

850 $1,950 $2,050 $2,150 $2,250 $2,350 $2,450

DÓLAR
 Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.908322718267545
Coeficiente de determinación R^2 0.825050160520942 Arancel vs Ventas
R^2 ajustado 0.817097895090076 0.817097895090076
Error típico 28296.4064424592
Observaciones 24

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad Suma de cuadrados
Regresión 1 83071500578.7078
Residuos 22 17615105586.2506
Total 23 100686606164.958

Coeficientes Error típico

Intercepción 867717.352239322 24760.4478077981
Variable X 1 -9283.78462735604 911.444679237246
Promedio de los cuadrados F Valor crítico de F
83071500578.7078 103.7503297 8.626630942951E-10
800686617.556844

Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%

35.044493499267 8.502E-21 816367.326381486 919067.37809716
-10.1857905793309 8.62663E-10 -11174.0052005106 -7393.564054202
 Analisis de los residuales
Observación Pronóstico para Y
1 561352.459536573
2 589203.813418641
3 561352.459536573
4 617055.167300709
5 579920.028791285
6 542784.890281861
7 589203.813418641
8 589203.813418641
9 607771.382673353
10 561352.459536573
11 579920.028791285
12 561352.459536573
Inferior 95.0% Superior 95.0% 13 607771.382673353
816367.32638149 919067.3780972 14 635622.736555421
-11174.00520051 -7393.564054202 15 700609.228946913
16 709893.013574269
17 598487.598045997
18 635622.736555421
19 756311.93671105
20 607771.382673353
21 728460.582828982
22 672757.875064845
23 635622.736555421
24 709893.013574269
Analisis de los residuales
Residuos Residuos estándares
-11352.4595365727 -0.41021473406764
796.186581359128 0.028769753874768
-51352.4595365727 -1.85559221459019
-12055.1673007091 -0.435606683509417
-22920.0287912849 -0.828202336696291
27215.1097181393 0.983402667913722
796.186581359128 0.028769753874768
10896.1865813591 0.393727567706711
13728.617326647 0.496075858066183
42147.5404634273 1.52297764613127
-69920.0287912849 -2.52652087631028
16807.5404634273 0.607331012220234
2228.61732664704 0.08052983241595
18878.263444579 0.682155421354162
9390.77105308662 0.33933022512186
-23782.0135742694 -0.859349671543262
28861.4019540031 1.04289051101564
15072.263444579 0.544627754082442
-8311.93671104964 -0.300347153541995
15749.617326647 0.569103555269584
21267.4171710184 0.768486146196715
-53235.8750648452 -1.92364837436598
8237.26344457897 0.297648877098151
20856.9864257306 0.753655462282888
 Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.932986557212326
Coeficiente de determinación R^2 0.870463915938909 Dólar vs Ventas
R^2 ajustado 0.86457591211795 0.86457591211795
Error típico 24348.3700033213
Observaciones 24

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad Suma de cuadrados
Regresión 1 87644057484.9483
Residuos 22 13042548680.01
Total 23 100686606164.958

Coeficientes Error típico

Intercepción 1238740.70845728 50928.1234517784
Variable X 1 -305.178582543582 25.0993634148783

Análisis de los residuales

Observación Pronóstico para Y Residuos

1 563075.326705789 -13075.3267057886
2 564906.39820105 25093.6017989499
3 507532.824682857 2467.17531714344
4 594813.899290321 10186.1007096788
5 557582.112220004 -582.112220004085
6 562770.148123245 7229.85187675501
7 654323.72288632 -64323.7228863197
8 596644.970785583 3455.02921441733
9 637233.722263879 -15733.7222638791
10 594203.542125234 9296.45787476597
11 576808.36292025 -66808.3629202498
12 571315.148434465 6844.85156553471
13 624416.221797049 -14416.2217970487
14 642116.579584576 12384.4204154236
15 677517.295159632 32482.704840368
16 671413.72350876 14697.2764912397
17 617091.935816003 10257.0641839973
18 638759.615176597 11935.384823403
19 770596.762835425 -22596.7628354246
20 613429.79282548 10091.2071745204
21 730618.368522215 19109.6314777846
22 609767.649834957 9754.35016504326
23 632350.864943182 11509.1350568183
24 730008.011357128 741.988642871846
Promedio de los cuadrados F Valor crítico de F
87644057484.9483 147.83684631 3.08718289707501E-11
592843121.818638

Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%

24.3233134170001 2.151692E-17 1133122.24483175 1344359.172083
-12.1588176360951 3.087183E-11 -357.231476351234 -253.1256887359

Residuos estándares
-0.549079505613347
1.05376965179201
0.103605472649402
0.427750622806399
-0.02444496395106
0.303607212536334
-2.70118206270091
0.145088973730352
-0.66071499676439
0.390391353783304
-2.80552094096798
0.287439679188794
-0.605388462961426
0.520065891431849
1.36406438753362
0.617190949890366
0.430730631663704
0.501209288731412
-0.948918497053239
0.423765705523403
0.80248144007216
0.409619880765984
0.483309543939527
0.031158743973749
 Inferior 95.0% Superior 95.0%
1133122.2448318 1344359.17208281
-357.2314763512 -253.125688735931