El equipo de trabajo debe tomar los precios diarios de la acción

de Ecopetrol para el año inmediatamente anterior, y calcular el valor en riesgo

de la acción con un nivel de confianza del 99% (2,576 desviaciones estándar).
con el valor en riesgo encontrado realice el back Testing del VAR para las
cotizaciones de la acción el año actual calculando:
-­‐El límite inferior y el límite superior del VAR para el año actual
-­‐El número de veces que el precio dela acción rompe el límite superior o el
límite inferior durante el año actual
-­‐El porcentaje de veces que el precio de la acción rompe el límite superior
o el límite inferior durante el año actual
-­‐Graficar el Back Testing realizado
-­‐Comparar el Nivel de Confianza utilizado (95%) con el porcentaje de
errores encontrados y analizar los resultados.
El entregable es un documento de Excel.
 UNIVERSIDAD POLITECNICO GRANCOLOMBIANO

GESTION INTEGRAL DEL RIESGO FINANCIERO

1RA ENTREGA

MARIA ALEJANDRA PICON BAYONA - 1311070478

JUAN CARLOS DURANGO ACOSTA - 1221560014
MARYURIS LICETH ASCANIO CARVAJALINO - 1065620801
ADRIANA GUEVARA PEÑA - 9413090014
JULIANA RODAS BERRIO - 1211300049

SEMINARIO FINANCIERO
I - 2018 GRUPO 01 - A.

TUTOR.
JUAN SIERRA

2018
 RESUMEN

Este estudio tiene como finalidad caracterizar el riesgo del mercado, operativo y de crédito en la acción de
ECOPETROL. Empresa representativa del mercado de extracción de petróleo y gas natural en Colombia en el
último año. A traves del Valor en Riesgo (VaR) y por medio de la realización de un backtesting, validaremos la
efectividad del modelo de medición de riesgo del mercado en base en los datos históricos del año 2017.

Palabras Clave: Valor en Riesgo, Back Testing, nivel de confianza, riesgo de mercado.
 INTRODUCCION

Mediante la presente actividad daremos solución al problema del módulo Seminario F

financiero" buscamos desarrollar esta actividad mediante conocimientos específicos qu
de los temas abordados en este trabajo; con el fin de ampliarlos y posteriormente obte
conocimientos significativos durante todo el desarrollo de la actividad colaborativa. C
lograr el objetivo principal que es conocer la gestión integral del riesgo financiero, en
conceptos principales del mismo. En la primera fase analizara el riesgo de mercado, qu
tales como: tasa de interés, tipo de cambio de las monedas, taza de crecimiento y las c
fase se analizara otro factor relevante, el riesgo de crédito, dado que este representa la
no efectué el pago oportunamente e incumpla con los convenios establecidos. Por ultim
operativo que se presenta por fallas en los sistemas de información, debido a los acont
humano. Este se da como el resultado de imprevistos que puede provocar pérdidas y d
se pretende extender una estrategia de aprendizaje que permita transferir los conocimi
trabajo. Recopilaremos toda la información necesaria que nos permita resolver los pro
se definirá en función a todo el grupo aportando consecuentemente, retroalimentando,
trabajo.

Referencia:
Tomado de Ecopetrol
ION

del módulo Seminario Financiero "gestión integral del riesgo

cimientos específicos que nos permitan tener un concepto claro
s y posteriormente obtener los resultados que permitan adquirir
ctividad colaborativa. Con la metodología grupal, se pretende
del riesgo financiero, en 3 (tres) faces donde se analizaran los
el riesgo de mercado, que hace referencia a componentes externos
a de crecimiento y las cotizaciones de las acciones. En la segunda
o que este representa la probabilidad de que la entidad crediticia
os establecidos. Por ultimo en la tercera fase se analizara el riesgo
ción, debido a los acontecimientos externos como fraude y error
de provocar pérdidas y desventajas en los procesos. Para lograrlo
a transferir los conocimientos necesarios para el análisis del
permita resolver los problemas en el proceso de creación, la labor
mente, retroalimentando, ajustando y presentando un excelente
 ACCIONES ECOPETROL 2017 ACCIONES ECOP
AÑO 2017 Precio Cierre Precio Mayor Precio Menor AÑO 2016
January-2-2017 1,360.00 1,370.00 1,360.00 Mon Jan 04 00:00:00 COT 2016
January-3-2017 1,380.00 1,390.00 1,370.00 Tue Jan 05 00:00:00 COT 2016
January-4-2017 1,400.00 1,400.00 1,370.00 Wed Jan 06 00:00:00 COT 2016
January-5-2017 1,415.00 1,415.00 1,400.00 Thu Jan 07 00:00:00 COT 2016
January-6-2017 1,395.00 1,415.00 1,385.00 Fri Jan 08 00:00:00 COT 2016
January-10-2017 1,390.00 1,390.00 1,375.00 Tue Jan 12 00:00:00 COT 2016
January-11-2017 1,410.00 1,415.00 1,395.00 Wed Jan 13 00:00:00 COT 2016
January-12-2017 1,400.00 1,425.00 1,400.00 Thu Jan 14 00:00:00 COT 2016
January-13-2017 1,405.00 1,405.00 1,390.00 Fri Jan 15 00:00:00 COT 2016
January-16-2017 1,400.00 1,400.00 1,395.00 Mon Jan 18 00:00:00 COT 2016
January-17-2017 1,400.00 1,405.00 1,385.00 Tue Jan 19 00:00:00 COT 2016
January-18-2017 1,390.00 1,400.00 1,385.00 Wed Jan 20 00:00:00 COT 2016
January-19-2017 1,395.00 1,400.00 1,390.00 Thu Jan 21 00:00:00 COT 2016
January-20-2017 1,385.00 1,405.00 1,385.00 Fri Jan 22 00:00:00 COT 2016
January-23-2017 1,400.00 1,400.00 1,370.00 Mon Jan 25 00:00:00 COT 2016
January-24-2017 1,400.00 1,410.00 1,400.00 Tue Jan 26 00:00:00 COT 2016
January-25-2017 1,385.00 1,400.00 1,385.00 Wed Jan 27 00:00:00 COT 2016
January-26-2017 1,390.00 1,395.00 1,390.00 Thu Jan 28 00:00:00 COT 2016
January-27-2017 1,390.00 1,395.00 1,385.00 Fri Jan 29 00:00:00 COT 2016
January-30-2017 1,370.00 1,390.00 1,360.00 Mon Feb 01 00:00:00 COT 2016
January-31-2017 1,375.00 1,385.00 1,370.00 Tue Feb 02 00:00:00 COT 2016
feb-1-2017 1,395.00 1,395.00 1,375.00 Wed Feb 03 00:00:00 COT 2016
feb-2-2017 1,390.00 1,395.00 1,380.00 Thu Feb 04 00:00:00 COT 2016
feb-3-2017 1,385.00 1,390.00 1,380.00 Fri Feb 05 00:00:00 COT 2016
feb-6-2017 1,375.00 1,385.00 1,365.00 Mon Feb 08 00:00:00 COT 2016
feb-7-2017 1,355.00 1,370.00 1,350.00 Tue Feb 09 00:00:00 COT 2016
feb-8-2017 1,355.00 1,360.00 1,345.00 Wed Feb 10 00:00:00 COT 2016
feb-9-2017 1,355.00 1,365.00 1,355.00 Thu Feb 11 00:00:00 COT 2016
feb-10-2017 1,380.00 1,380.00 1,365.00 Fri Feb 12 00:00:00 COT 2016
feb-13-2017 1,375.00 1,375.00 1,365.00 Mon Feb 15 00:00:00 COT 2016
feb-14-2017 1,365.00 1,375.00 1,360.00 Tue Feb 16 00:00:00 COT 2016
feb-15-2017 1,365.00 1,370.00 1,355.00 Wed Feb 17 00:00:00 COT 2016
feb-16-2017 1,360.00 1,380.00 1,355.00 Thu Feb 18 00:00:00 COT 2016
feb-17-2017 1,350.00 1,360.00 1,340.00 Fri Feb 19 00:00:00 COT 2016
feb-20-2017 1,355.00 1,355.00 1,345.00 Mon Feb 22 00:00:00 COT 2016
feb-21-2017 1,345.00 1,360.00 1,340.00 Tue Feb 23 00:00:00 COT 2016
feb-22-2017 1,310.00 1,340.00 1,305.00 Wed Feb 24 00:00:00 COT 2016
feb-23-2017 1,335.00 1,335.00 1,315.00 Thu Feb 25 00:00:00 COT 2016
feb-24-2017 1,320.00 1,330.00 1,315.00 Fri Feb 26 00:00:00 COT 2016
feb-27-2017 1,335.00 1,335.00 1,320.00 Mon Feb 29 00:00:00 COT 2016
feb-28-2017 1,320.00 1,330.00 1,320.00 Tue Mar 01 00:00:00 COT 2016
March-1-2017 1,310.00 1,325.00 1,305.00 Wed Mar 02 00:00:00 COT 2016
March-2-2017 1,315.00 1,315.00 1,295.00 Thu Mar 03 00:00:00 COT 2016
March-3-2017 1,320.00 1,335.00 1,305.00 Fri Mar 04 00:00:00 COT 2016
March-6-2017 1,320.00 1,335.00 1,300.00 Mon Mar 07 00:00:00 COT 2016
March-7-2017 1,330.00 1,330.00 1,310.00 Tue Mar 08 00:00:00 COT 2016
March-8-2017 1,295.00 1,330.00 1,295.00 Wed Mar 09 00:00:00 COT 2016
March-9-2017 1,310.00 1,310.00 1,275.00 Thu Mar 10 00:00:00 COT 2016
March-10-2017 1,315.00 1,320.00 1,305.00 Fri Mar 11 00:00:00 COT 2016
March-13-2017 1,315.00 1,325.00 1,310.00 Mon Mar 14 00:00:00 COT 2016
March-14-2017 1,290.00 1,310.00 1,285.00 Tue Mar 15 00:00:00 COT 2016
March-15-2017 1,315.00 1,315.00 1,295.00 Wed Mar 16 00:00:00 COT 2016
March-16-2017 1,320.00 1,320.00 1,305.00 Thu Mar 17 00:00:00 COT 2016
March-17-2017 1,300.00 1,325.00 1,300.00 Fri Mar 18 00:00:00 COT 2016
March-21-2017 1,325.00 1,325.00 1,300.00 Tue Mar 22 00:00:00 COT 2016
March-22-2017 1,320.00 1,325.00 1,315.00 Wed Mar 23 00:00:00 COT 2016
March-23-2017 1,320.00 1,330.00 1,310.00 Mon Mar 28 00:00:00 COT 2016
March-24-2017 1,315.00 1,325.00 1,315.00 Tue Mar 29 00:00:00 COT 2016
March-27-2017 1,305.00 1,320.00 1,300.00 Wed Mar 30 00:00:00 COT 2016
March-28-2017 1,325.00 1,325.00 1,310.00 Thu Mar 31 00:00:00 COT 2016
March-29-2017 1,340.00 1,340.00 1,320.00 Fri Apr 01 00:00:00 COT 2016
March-30-2017 1,340.00 1,350.00 1,340.00 Mon Apr 04 00:00:00 COT 2016
March-31-2017 1,350.00 1,350.00 1,335.00 Tue Apr 05 00:00:00 COT 2016
April-3-2017 1,350.00 1,350.00 1,330.00 Wed Apr 06 00:00:00 COT 2016
April-4-2017 1,355.00 1,355.00 1,340.00 Thu Apr 07 00:00:00 COT 2016
April-5-2017 1,350.00 1,375.00 1,350.00 Fri Apr 08 00:00:00 COT 2016
April-6-2017 1,355.00 1,365.00 1,350.00 Mon Apr 11 00:00:00 COT 2016
April-7-2017 1,365.00 1,375.00 1,355.00 Tue Apr 12 00:00:00 COT 2016
April-10-2017 1,385.00 1,390.00 1,370.00 Wed Apr 13 00:00:00 COT 2016
April-11-2017 1,390.00 1,395.00 1,380.00 Thu Apr 14 00:00:00 COT 2016
April-12-2017 1,400.00 1,400.00 1,380.00 Fri Apr 15 00:00:00 COT 2016
April-17-2017 1,370.00 1,380.00 1,360.00 Mon Apr 18 00:00:00 COT 2016
April-18-2017 1,375.00 1,380.00 1,360.00 Tue Apr 19 00:00:00 COT 2016
April-19-2017 1,375.00 1,375.00 1,365.00 Wed Apr 20 00:00:00 COT 2016
April-20-2017 1,380.00 1,380.00 1,370.00 Thu Apr 21 00:00:00 COT 2016
April-21-2017 1,365.00 1,375.00 1,365.00 Fri Apr 22 00:00:00 COT 2016
April-24-2017 1,360.00 1,375.00 1,350.00 Mon Apr 25 00:00:00 COT 2016
April-25-2017 1,365.00 1,365.00 1,350.00 Tue Apr 26 00:00:00 COT 2016
April-26-2017 1,380.00 1,385.00 1,360.00 Wed Apr 27 00:00:00 COT 2016
April-27-2017 1,340.00 1,360.00 1,335.00 Thu Apr 28 00:00:00 COT 2016
April-28-2017 1,360.00 1,360.00 1,340.00 Fri Apr 29 00:00:00 COT 2016
May-2-2017 1,335.00 1,355.00 1,335.00 Mon May 02 00:00:00 COT 2016
May-3-2017 1,355.00 1,355.00 1,340.00 Tue May 03 00:00:00 COT 2016
May-4-2017 1,345.00 1,355.00 1,340.00 Wed May 04 00:00:00 COT 2016
May-5-2017 1,365.00 1,365.00 1,340.00 Thu May 05 00:00:00 COT 2016
May-8-2017 1,385.00 1,385.00 1,365.00 Fri May 06 00:00:00 COT 2016
May-9-2017 1,380.00 1,385.00 1,375.00 Tue May 10 00:00:00 COT 2016
May-10-2017 1,380.00 1,390.00 1,375.00 Wed May 11 00:00:00 COT 2016
May-11-2017 1,375.00 1,380.00 1,370.00 Thu May 12 00:00:00 COT 2016
May-12-2017 1,445.00 1,450.00 1,380.00 Fri May 13 00:00:00 COT 2016
May-15-2017 1,480.00 1,485.00 1,455.00 Mon May 16 00:00:00 COT 2016
May-16-2017 1,450.00 1,485.00 1,450.00 Tue May 17 00:00:00 COT 2016
May-17-2017 1,410.00 1,455.00 1,410.00 Wed May 18 00:00:00 COT 2016
May-18-2017 1,410.00 1,420.00 1,380.00 Thu May 19 00:00:00 COT 2016
May-19-2017 1,435.00 1,440.00 1,415.00 Fri May 20 00:00:00 COT 2016
May-22-2017 1,425.00 1,440.00 1,415.00 Mon May 23 00:00:00 COT 2016
May-23-2017 1,420.00 1,430.00 1,415.00 Tue May 24 00:00:00 COT 2016
May-24-2017 1,405.00 1,425.00 1,405.00 Wed May 25 00:00:00 COT 2016
May-25-2017 1,390.00 1,420.00 1,390.00 Thu May 26 00:00:00 COT 2016
May-26-2017 1,395.00 1,405.00 1,385.00 Fri May 27 00:00:00 COT 2016
May-30-2017 1,375.00 1,390.00 1,370.00 Tue May 31 00:00:00 COT 2016
May-31-2017 1,335.00 1,370.00 1,310.00 Wed Jun 01 00:00:00 COT 2016
June-1-2017 1,345.00 1,355.00 1,335.00 Thu Jun 02 00:00:00 COT 2016
June-2-2017 1,335.00 1,340.00 1,325.00 Fri Jun 03 00:00:00 COT 2016
June-5-2017 1,375.00 1,375.00 1,335.00 Tue Jun 07 00:00:00 COT 2016
June-6-2017 1,400.00 1,400.00 1,360.00 Wed Jun 08 00:00:00 COT 2016
June-7-2017 1,370.00 1,400.00 1,365.00 Tue Jun 14 00:00:00 COT 2016
June-8-2017 1,350.00 1,365.00 1,350.00 Wed Jun 15 00:00:00 COT 2016
June-9-2017 1,370.00 1,375.00 1,345.00 Thu Jun 16 00:00:00 COT 2016
June-12-2017 1,360.00 1,395.00 1,355.00 Fri Jun 17 00:00:00 COT 2016
June-13-2017 1,370.00 1,370.00 1,350.00 Mon Jun 20 00:00:00 COT 2016
June-14-2017 1,350.00 1,375.00 1,340.00 Tue Jun 21 00:00:00 COT 2016
June-15-2017 1,340.00 1,350.00 1,335.00 Wed Jun 22 00:00:00 COT 2016
June-16-2017 1,365.00 1,365.00 1,350.00 Thu Jun 23 00:00:00 COT 2016
June-20-2017 1,325.00 1,350.00 1,320.00 Fri Jun 24 00:00:00 COT 2016
June-21-2017 1,325.00 1,345.00 1,320.00 Mon Jun 27 00:00:00 COT 2016
June-22-2017 1,350.00 1,350.00 1,325.00 Tue Jun 28 00:00:00 COT 2016
June-23-2017 1,340.00 1,355.00 1,335.00 Wed Jun 29 00:00:00 COT 2016
June-27-2017 1,345.00 1,355.00 1,340.00 Thu Jun 30 00:00:00 COT 2016
June-28-2017 1,340.00 1,355.00 1,340.00 Fri Jul 01 00:00:00 COT 2016
June-29-2017 1,360.00 1,365.00 1,345.00 Tue Jul 05 00:00:00 COT 2016
June-30-2017 1,380.00 1,385.00 1,365.00 Wed Jul 06 00:00:00 COT 2016
July-4-2017 1,395.00 1,400.00 1,385.00 Thu Jul 07 00:00:00 COT 2016
July-5-2017 1,365.00 1,395.00 1,365.00 Fri Jul 08 00:00:00 COT 2016
July-6-2017 1,380.00 1,390.00 1,375.00 Mon Jul 11 00:00:00 COT 2016
July-7-2017 1,355.00 1,370.00 1,350.00 Tue Jul 12 00:00:00 COT 2016
July-10-2017 1,355.00 1,360.00 1,350.00 Wed Jul 13 00:00:00 COT 2016
July-11-2017 1,375.00 1,380.00 1,350.00 Thu Jul 14 00:00:00 COT 2016
July-12-2017 1,390.00 1,395.00 1,380.00 Fri Jul 15 00:00:00 COT 2016
July-13-2017 1,395.00 1,405.00 1,390.00 Mon Jul 18 00:00:00 COT 2016
July-14-2017 1,400.00 1,400.00 1,385.00 Tue Jul 19 00:00:00 COT 2016
July-17-2017 1,390.00 1,400.00 1,385.00 Thu Jul 21 00:00:00 COT 2016
July-18-2017 1,380.00 1,395.00 1,380.00 Fri Jul 22 00:00:00 COT 2016
July-19-2017 1,390.00 1,400.00 1,385.00 Mon Jul 25 00:00:00 COT 2016
July-21-2017 1,375.00 1,395.00 1,365.00 Tue Jul 26 00:00:00 COT 2016
July-24-2017 1,375.00 1,375.00 1,365.00 Wed Jul 27 00:00:00 COT 2016
July-25-2017 1,395.00 1,395.00 1,375.00 Thu Jul 28 00:00:00 COT 2016
July-26-2017 1,385.00 1,405.00 1,385.00 Fri Jul 29 00:00:00 COT 2016
July-27-2017 1,395.00 1,395.00 1,380.00 Mon Aug 01 00:00:00 COT 2016
July-28-2017 1,395.00 1,405.00 1,390.00 Tue Aug 02 00:00:00 COT 2016
July-31-2017 1,395.00 1,395.00 1,385.00 Wed Aug 03 00:00:00 COT 2016
August-1-2017 1,365.00 1,385.00 1,365.00 Thu Aug 04 00:00:00 COT 2016
August-2-2017 1,375.00 1,380.00 1,360.00 Fri Aug 05 00:00:00 COT 2016
August-3-2017 1,385.00 1,390.00 1,375.00 Mon Aug 08 00:00:00 COT 2016
August-4-2017 1,385.00 1,390.00 1,375.00 Tue Aug 09 00:00:00 COT 2016
August-8-2017 1,365.00 1,380.00 1,365.00 Wed Aug 10 00:00:00 COT 2016
August-9-2017 1,390.00 1,400.00 1,375.00 Thu Aug 11 00:00:00 COT 2016
August-10-2017 1,380.00 1,395.00 1,370.00 Fri Aug 12 00:00:00 COT 2016
August-11-2017 1,365.00 1,375.00 1,365.00 Tue Aug 16 00:00:00 COT 2016
August-14-2017 1,365.00 1,365.00 1,360.00 Wed Aug 17 00:00:00 COT 2016
August-15-2017 1,355.00 1,355.00 1,350.00 Thu Aug 18 00:00:00 COT 2016
August-16-2017 1,355.00 1,365.00 1,350.00 Fri Aug 19 00:00:00 COT 2016
August-17-2017 1,365.00 1,375.00 1,350.00 Mon Aug 22 00:00:00 COT 2016
August-18-2017 1,370.00 1,375.00 1,360.00 Tue Aug 23 00:00:00 COT 2016
August-22-2017 1,370.00 1,370.00 1,360.00 Wed Aug 24 00:00:00 COT 2016
August-23-2017 1,380.00 1,380.00 1,360.00 Thu Aug 25 00:00:00 COT 2016
August-24-2017 1,370.00 1,375.00 1,365.00 Fri Aug 26 00:00:00 COT 2016
August-25-2017 1,360.00 1,370.00 1,360.00 Mon Aug 29 00:00:00 COT 2016
August-28-2017 1,350.00 1,360.00 1,340.00 Tue Aug 30 00:00:00 COT 2016
August-29-2017 1,355.00 1,355.00 1,340.00 Wed Aug 31 00:00:00 COT 2016
August-30-2017 1,350.00 1,355.00 1,345.00 Thu Sep 01 00:00:00 COT 2016
August-31-2017 1,370.00 1,370.00 1,350.00 Fri Sep 02 00:00:00 COT 2016
sept-1-2017 1,370.00 1,370.00 1,355.00 Mon Sep 05 00:00:00 COT 2016
sept-4-2017 1,370.00 1,375.00 1,365.00 Tue Sep 06 00:00:00 COT 2016
sept-5-2017 1,370.00 1,380.00 1,360.00 Wed Sep 07 00:00:00 COT 2016
sept-6-2017 1,375.00 1,380.00 1,370.00 Thu Sep 08 00:00:00 COT 2016
sept-7-2017 1,370.00 1,375.00 1,370.00 Fri Sep 09 00:00:00 COT 2016
sept-8-2017 1,360.00 1,375.00 1,350.00 Mon Sep 12 00:00:00 COT 2016
sept-11-2017 1,355.00 1,360.00 1,345.00 Tue Sep 13 00:00:00 COT 2016
sept-12-2017 1,355.00 1,355.00 1,345.00 Wed Sep 14 00:00:00 COT 2016
sept-13-2017 1,360.00 1,360.00 1,350.00 Thu Sep 15 00:00:00 COT 2016
sept-14-2017 1,365.00 1,370.00 1,360.00 Fri Sep 16 00:00:00 COT 2016
sept-15-2017 1,370.00 1,370.00 1,360.00 Mon Sep 19 00:00:00 COT 2016
sept-18-2017 1,370.00 1,380.00 1,365.00 Tue Sep 20 00:00:00 COT 2016
sept-19-2017 1,370.00 1,375.00 1,365.00 Wed Sep 21 00:00:00 COT 2016
sept-20-2017 1,380.00 1,380.00 1,370.00 Thu Sep 22 00:00:00 COT 2016
sept-21-2017 1,385.00 1,390.00 1,375.00 Fri Sep 23 00:00:00 COT 2016
sept-22-2017 1,380.00 1,385.00 1,375.00 Mon Sep 26 00:00:00 COT 2016
sept-25-2017 1,390.00 1,395.00 1,385.00 Tue Sep 27 00:00:00 COT 2016
sept-26-2017 1,395.00 1,405.00 1,390.00 Wed Sep 28 00:00:00 COT 2016
sept-27-2017 1,405.00 1,410.00 1,400.00 Thu Sep 29 00:00:00 COT 2016
sept-28-2017 1,395.00 1,420.00 1,395.00 Fri Sep 30 00:00:00 COT 2016
sept-29-2017 1,400.00 1,405.00 1,390.00 Mon Oct 03 00:00:00 COT 2016
October-2-2017 1,395.00 1,400.00 1,380.00 Tue Oct 04 00:00:00 COT 2016
October-3-2017 1,405.00 1,410.00 1,395.00 Wed Oct 05 00:00:00 COT 2016
October-4-2017 1,400.00 1,415.00 1,395.00 Thu Oct 06 00:00:00 COT 2016
October-5-2017 1,405.00 1,410.00 1,395.00 Fri Oct 07 00:00:00 COT 2016
October-6-2017 1,400.00 1,400.00 1,390.00 Mon Oct 10 00:00:00 COT 2016
October-9-2017 1,400.00 1,405.00 1,390.00 Tue Oct 11 00:00:00 COT 2016
October-10-2017 1,410.00 1,415.00 1,400.00 Wed Oct 12 00:00:00 COT 2016
October-19-2017 1,460.00 1,465.00 1,455.00 Thu Oct 13 00:00:00 COT 2016
October-20-2017 1,445.00 1,465.00 1,445.00 Fri Oct 14 00:00:00 COT 2016
October-23-2017 1,450.00 1,455.00 1,440.00 Tue Oct 18 00:00:00 COT 2016
October-24-2017 1,465.00 1,470.00 1,450.00 Wed Oct 19 00:00:00 COT 2016
October-25-2017 1,490.00 1,490.00 1,470.00 Thu Oct 20 00:00:00 COT 2016
October-26-2017 1,565.00 1,565.00 1,490.00 Fri Oct 21 00:00:00 COT 2016
October-27-2017 1,610.00 1,625.00 1,560.00 Mon Oct 24 00:00:00 COT 2016
October-30-2017 1,665.00 1,670.00 1,625.00 Tue Oct 25 00:00:00 COT 2016
October-31-2017 1,665.00 1,690.00 1,660.00 Wed Oct 26 00:00:00 COT 2016
Nov-1-2017 1,735.00 1,745.00 1,685.00 Thu Oct 27 00:00:00 COT 2016
Nov-2-2017 1,700.00 1,775.00 1,695.00 Fri Oct 28 00:00:00 COT 2016
Nov-3-2017 1,700.00 1,710.00 1,675.00 Mon Oct 31 00:00:00 COT 2016
Nov-7-2017 1,820.00 29,952.00 1,791.00 Tue Nov 01 00:00:00 COT 2016
Nov-8-2017 1,755.00 1,850.00 1,750.00 Wed Nov 02 00:00:00 COT 2016
Nov-9-2017 1,820.00 1,820.00 1,735.00 Thu Nov 03 00:00:00 COT 2016
Nov-10-2017 1,810.00 1,815.00 1,780.00 Fri Nov 04 00:00:00 COT 2016
Nov-14-2017 1,765.00 1,785.00 1,765.00 Tue Nov 08 00:00:00 COT 2016
Nov-15-2017 1,750.00 1,765.00 1,730.00 Wed Nov 09 00:00:00 COT 2016
Nov-16-2017 1,750.00 1,765.00 1,745.00 Thu Nov 10 00:00:00 COT 2016
Nov-17-2017 1,750.00 1,760.00 1,745.00 Fri Nov 11 00:00:00 COT 2016
Nov-20-2017 1,740.00 1,755.00 1,700.00 Tue Nov 15 00:00:00 COT 2016
Nov-21-2017 1,740.00 1,755.00 1,730.00 Wed Nov 16 00:00:00 COT 2016
Nov-22-2017 1,775.00 1,775.00 1,745.00 Thu Nov 17 00:00:00 COT 2016
Nov-23-2017 1,775.00 1,775.00 1,765.00 Fri Nov 18 00:00:00 COT 2016
Nov-24-2017 1,760.00 1,790.00 1,750.00 Mon Nov 21 00:00:00 COT 2016
Nov-27-2017 1,780.00 1,790.00 1,725.00 Tue Nov 22 00:00:00 COT 2016
Nov-28-2017 1,735.00 1,775.00 1,735.00 Wed Nov 23 00:00:00 COT 2016
Nov-29-2017 1,770.00 1,770.00 1,735.00 Thu Nov 24 00:00:00 COT 2016
Nov-30-2017 1,750.00 1,780.00 1,750.00 Fri Nov 25 00:00:00 COT 2016
Dec-1-2017 1,775.00 1,775.00 1,755.00 Mon Nov 28 00:00:00 COT 2016
Dec-4-2017 1,780.00 1,785.00 1,760.00 Tue Nov 29 00:00:00 COT 2016
Dec-5-2017 1,790.00 1,790.00 1,765.00 Wed Nov 30 00:00:00 COT 2016
Dec-6-2017 1,775.00 1,775.00 1,755.00 Thu Dec 01 00:00:00 COT 2016
Dec-7-2017 1,780.00 1,790.00 1,770.00 Fri Dec 02 00:00:00 COT 2016
Dec-11-2017 1,885.00 1,885.00 1,790.00 Mon Dec 05 00:00:00 COT 2016
Dec-12-2017 1,910.00 1,930.00 1,855.00 Tue Dec 06 00:00:00 COT 2016
Dec-13-2017 1,935.00 1,935.00 1,900.00 Wed Dec 07 00:00:00 COT 2016
Dec-14-2017 1,950.00 1,950.00 1,910.00 Fri Dec 09 00:00:00 COT 2016
Dec-15-2017 1,935.00 1,950.00 1,920.00 Mon Dec 12 00:00:00 COT 2016
Dec-18-2017 1,940.00 1,965.00 1,935.00 Tue Dec 13 00:00:00 COT 2016
Dec-19-2017 1,955.00 1,970.00 1,935.00 Wed Dec 14 00:00:00 COT 2016
Dec-20-2017 1,985.00 1,990.00 1,960.00 Thu Dec 15 00:00:00 COT 2016
Dec-21-2017 2,015.00 2,015.00 1,995.00 Fri Dec 16 00:00:00 COT 2016
Dec-22-2017 2,025.00 2,040.00 2,010.00 Mon Dec 19 00:00:00 COT 2016
Dec-26-2017 2,075.00 2,080.00 2,010.00 Tue Dec 20 00:00:00 COT 2016
Dec-27-2017 2,110.00 2,115.00 2,075.00 Wed Dec 21 00:00:00 COT 2016
Dec-28-2017 2,210.00 2,210.00 2,100.00 Thu Dec 22 00:00:00 COT 2016
TOTAL 343,905.00 374,272.00 340,666.00 Fri Dec 23 00:00:00 COT 2016
Mon Dec 26 00:00:00 COT 2016
Tue Dec 27 00:00:00 COT 2016
Wed Dec 28 00:00:00 COT 2016
Thu Dec 29 00:00:00 COT 2016
ACCIONES ECOPETROL 2016
Precio Cierre Precio Mayor Precio Menor
$1,105.00 1.140,00 1.100,00
$1,085.00 1.100,00 1.065,00
$1,060.00 1.075,00 1.055,00
$1,035.00 1.065,00 1.030,00
$1,015.00 1.035,00 1.010,00
$955.00 1.005,00 947,00
$961.00 997,00 955,00
$987.00 995,00 962,00
$980.00 982,00 949,00
$881.00 978,00 881,00
$923.00 956,00 900,00
$914.00 931,00 880,00
$950.00 960,00 920,00
$1,020.00 1.020,00 960,00
$958.00 1.010,00 957,00
$975.00 981,00 950,00
$990.00 995,00 955,00
$1,020.00 1.060,00 997,00
$1,030.00 1.045,00 1.010,00
$1,020.00 1.030,00 991,00
$993.00 1.010,00 990,00
$1,035.00 1.035,00 975,00
$1,050.00 1.080,00 1.035,00
$1,045.00 1.055,00 1.030,00
$1,060.00 1.060,00 1.030,00
$1,025.00 1.050,00 1.020,00
$1,030.00 1.040,00 1.005,00
$1,035.00 1.035,00 1.000,00
$1,065.00 1.065,00 1.035,00
$1,070.00 1.080,00 1.065,00
$1,045.00 1.085,00 1.040,00
$1,155.00 1.155,00 1.045,00
$1,160.00 1.190,00 1.160,00
$1,130.00 1.165,00 1.125,00
$1,165.00 1.185,00 1.155,00
$1,145.00 1.160,00 1.140,00
$1,135.00 1.145,00 1.115,00
$1,150.00 1.170,00 1.135,00
$1,160.00 1.195,00 1.155,00
$1,140.00 1.165,00 1.140,00
$1,170.00 1.175,00 1.145,00
$1,260.00 1.260,00 1.160,00
$1,320.00 1.330,00 1.250,00
$1,365.00 1.385,00 1.315,00
$1,425.00 1.435,00 1.300,00
$1,340.00 1.420,00 1.310,00
$1,340.00 1.395,00 1.340,00
$1,350.00 1.355,00 1.315,00
$1,360.00 1.385,00 1.350,00
$1,335.00 1.345,00 1.325,00
$1,285.00 1.330,00 1.270,00
$1,345.00 1.345,00 1.295,00
$1,380.00 1.380,00 1.350,00
$1,325.00 1.395,00 1.325,00
$1,350.00 1.350,00 1.320,00
$1,340.00 1.340,00 1.300,00
$1,290.00 1.305,00 1.280,00
$1,280.00 1.290,00 1.235,00
$1,310.00 1.320,00 1.280,00
$1,310.00 1.310,00 1.290,00
$1,300.00 1.305,00 1.260,00
$1,290.00 1.320,00 1.280,00
$1,265.00 1.280,00 1.255,00
$1,265.00 1.280,00 1.260,00
$1,220.00 1.265,00 1.220,00
$1,280.00 1.280,00 1.235,00
$1,290.00 1.305,00 1.280,00
$1,380.00 1.380,00 1.300,00
$1,400.00 1.425,00 1.370,00
$1,380.00 1.415,00 1.375,00
$1,350.00 1.375,00 1.340,00
$1,360.00 1.385,00 1.295,00
$1,380.00 1.405,00 1.360,00
$1,425.00 1.445,00 1.360,00
$1,430.00 1.440,00 1.420,00
$1,435.00 1.470,00 1.425,00
$1,415.00 1.445,00 1.415,00
$1,445.00 1.450,00 1.425,00
$1,460.00 1.485,00 1.450,00
$1,440.00 1.480,00 1.440,00
$1,415.00 1.455,00 1.405,00
$1,370.00 1.415,00 1.355,00
$1,370.00 1.370,00 1.330,00
$1,395.00 1.445,00 1.375,00
$1,390.00 1.440,00 1.380,00
$1,395.00 1.415,00 1.375,00
$1,405.00 1.405,00 1.365,00
$1,400.00 1.430,00 1.380,00
$1,420.00 1.435,00 1.395,00
$1,405.00 1.420,00 1.400,00
$1,445.00 1.450,00 1.410,00
$1,465.00 1.465,00 1.430,00
$1,405.00 1.470,00 1.405,00
$1,415.00 1.415,00 1.370,00
$1,400.00 1.425,00 1.395,00
$1,395.00 1.400,00 1.380,00
$1,385.00 1.400,00 1.370,00
$1,410.00 1.425,00 1.395,00
$1,395.00 1.425,00 1.395,00
$1,395.00 1.405,00 1.385,00
$1,340.00 1.405,00 1.340,00
$1,360.00 1.375,00 1.320,00
$1,375.00 1.380,00 1.335,00
$1,370.00 1.385,00 1.355,00
$1,420.00 1.425,00 1.375,00
$1,450.00 1.450,00 1.425,00
$1,395.00 1.410,00 1.385,00
$1,395.00 1.410,00 1.380,00
$1,395.00 1.410,00 1.380,00
$1,415.00 1.430,00 1.400,00
$1,420.00 1.435,00 1.415,00
$1,425.00 1.425,00 1.405,00
$1,410.00 1.435,00 1.410,00
$1,410.00 1.425,00 1.410,00
$1,400.00 1.405,00 1.360,00
$1,370.00 1.385,00 1.365,00
$1,385.00 1.400,00 1.385,00
$1,395.00 1.405,00 1.390,00
$1,395.00 1.395,00 1.380,00
$1,405.00 1.405,00 1.385,00
$1,375.00 1.395,00 1.370,00
$1,370.00 1.380,00 1.355,00
$1,355.00 1.405,00 1.350,00
$1,350.00 1.370,00 1.350,00
$1,370.00 1,370,0 1.350,00
$1,390.00 1.395,00 1.375,00
$1,395.00 1.405,00 1.380,00
$1,410.00 1.410,00 1.395,00
$1,400.00 1.415,00 1.385,00
$1,410.00 1.410,00 1.385,00
$1,390.00 1.410,00 1.385,00
$1,365.00 1.390,00 1.360,00
$1,360.00 1.370,00 1.350,00
$1,335.00 1.355,00 1.335,00
$1,340.00 1.350,00 1.330,00
$1,325.00 1.355,00 1.325,00
$1,295.00 1.325,00 1.290,00
$1,300.00 1.315,00 1.285,00
$1,250.00 1.300,00 1.245,00
$1,205.00 1.265,00 1.205,00
$1,235.00 1.235,00 1.200,00
$1,240.00 1.245,00 1.225,00
$1,230.00 1.240,00 1.225,00
$1,260.00 1.260,00 1.245,00
$1,240.00 1.260,00 1.240,00
$1,225.00 1.245,00 1.215,00
$1,230.00 1.230,00 1.215,00
$1,220.00 1.235,00 1.220,00
$1,275.00 1.280,00 1.230,00
$1,320.00 1.320,00 1.265,00
$1,330.00 1.335,00 1.320,00
$1,320.00 1.330,00 1.315,00
$1,290.00 1.320,00 1.265,00
$1,330.00 1.330,00 1.285,00
$1,325.00 1.335,00 1.315,00
$1,325.00 1.340,00 1.315,00
$1,320.00 1.340,00 1.315,00
$1,320.00 1.320,00 1.305,00
$1,325.00 1.335,00 1.315,00
$1,320.00 1.325,00 1.315,00
$1,295.00 1.315,00 1.285,00
$1,320.00 1.320,00 1.300,00
$1,345.00 1.350,00 1.320,00
$1,340.00 1.340,00 1.320,00
$1,365.00 1.370,00 1.325,00
$1,400.00 1.400,00 1.370,00
$1,360.00 1.390,00 1.360,00
$1,335.00 1.360,00 1.335,00
$1,300.00 1.330,00 1.285,00
$1,275.00 1.310,00 1.275,00
$1,265.00 1.285,00 1.255,00
$1,230.00 1.255,00 1.230,00
$1,220.00 1.255,00 1.220,00
$1,200.00 1.220,00 1.185,00
$1,235.00 1.235,00 1.210,00
$1,245.00 1.255,00 1.240,00
$1,215.00 1.245,00 1.205,00
$1,205.00 1.225,00 1.205,00
$1,170.00 1.205,00 1.160,00
$1,230.00 1.235,00 1.165,00
$1,245.00 1.265,00 1.230,00
$1,250.00 1.270,00 1.245,00
$1,265.00 1.275,00 1.200,00
$1,275.00 1.290,00 1.270,00
$1,310.00 1.310,00 1.280,00
$1,325.00 1.330,00 1.310,00
$1,315.00 1.325,00 1.315,00
$1,340.00 1.345,00 1.315,00
$1,325.00 1.345,00 1.320,00
$1,315.00 1.330,00 1.300,00
$1,325.00 1.325,00 1.300,00
$1,315.00 1.330,00 1.310,00
$1,345.00 1.345,00 1.300,00
$1,370.00 1.385,00 1.350,00
$1,340.00 1.365,00 1.340,00
$1,345.00 1.350,00 1.340,00
$1,335.00 1.355,00 1.325,00
$1,330.00 1.350,00 1.330,00
$1,335.00 1.340,00 1.315,00
$1,340.00 1.345,00 1.335,00
$1,315.00 1.340,00 1.315,00
$1,310.00 1.315,00 1.300,00
$1,330.00 1.335,00 1.315,00
$1,310.00 1.330,00 1.310,00
$1,300.00 1.325,00 1.295,00
$1,300.00 1.305,00 1.285,00
$1,310.00 1.315,00 1.300,00
$1,325.00 1.325,00 1.300,00
$1,280.00 1.330,00 1.280,00
$1,270.00 1.275,00 1.230,00
$1,295.00 1.310,00 1.270,00
$1,275.00 1.295,00 1.270,00
$1,280.00 1.305,00 1.280,00
$1,280.00 1.295,00 1.275,00
$1,315.00 1.315,00 1.295,00
$1,315.00 1.325,00 1.290,00
$1,300.00 1.315,00 1.300,00
$1,300.00 1.305,00 1.300,00
$1,290.00 1.300,00 1.285,00
$1,285.00 1.305,00 1.285,00
$1,240.00 1.275,00 1.240,00
$1,320.00 1.325,00 1.280,00
$1,325.00 1.370,00 1.325,00
$1,320.00 1.335,00 1.320,00
$1,315.00 1.345,00 1.315,00
$1,310.00 1.320,00 1.305,00
$1,305.00 1.315,00 1.305,00
$1,320.00 1.320,00 1.300,00
$1,345.00 1.355,00 1.320,00
$1,350.00 1.360,00 1.340,00
$1,340.00 1.350,00 1.340,00
$1,350.00 1.350,00 1.330,00
$1,380.00 1.380,00 1.350,00
$1,385.00 1.390,00 1.370,00
$1,385.00 1.400,00 1.380,00
$1,380.00 1.395,00 1.380,00
$1,355.00 1.390,00 1.355,00
$1,335.00 1.355,00 1.330,00
$1,350.00 1.355,00 1.340,00
$1,365.00 1.375,00 1.355,00
$1,380.00 1.385,00 1.365,00
$1,385.00 1.385,00 1.365,00
Acciones 2016 -2017

Acciones Precio Distribucion Desviación

Año 2016 Retorno Diario
Cierre Normal estándar
Dia 1 1,105.00 Nº desvíos por nivel de confianza
Nivel de confianza
Dia 2 1,085.00 -1.83% 12.09912003535

99%
Dia 3 1,060.00 -2.33% 9.975916752407
Dia 4 1,035.00 -2.39% 9.739137243713 Valor en riesgo
Dia 5 1,015.00 -1.95% 11.58368128557 VAR al 99%
Dia 6 955.00 -6.09% 0.576187009885
Dia 7 961.00 0.63% 16.32505442799 Medida de Posicion
Dia 8 987.00 2.67% 9.334387649509 Curtosis positiva
Dia 9 980.00 -0.71% 15.80879238455 3.09
Dia 10 881.00 -10.65% 0.000648782104 Leptocurtica
Dia 11 923.00 4.66% 2.677294213795
Dia 12 914.00 -0.98% 15.12312319596 Coeficiente de asimetria
Dia 13 950.00 3.86% 4.792905707667 0.13
Dia 14 1,020.00 7.11% 0.219913198901 Simetrica
Dia 15 958.00 -6.27% 0.473457699653
Dia 16 975.00 1.76% 13.11296862977 Medidas de tendencia central
Dia 17 990.00 1.53% 13.97018921212 Media
Dia 18 1,020.00 2.99% 8.018681513683 Mediana
Dia 19 1,030.00 0.98% 15.63034702641
Dia 20 1,020.00 -0.98% 15.13524678752
Dia 21 993.00 -2.68% 8.492747841122 Distribu
Dia 22 1,035.00 4.14% 3.954429079765
Dia 23 1,050.00 1.44% 14.27360589478
Dia 24 1,045.00 -0.48% 16.26419384526
Distribucion Normal

Dia 25 1,060.00 1.43% 14.3196509279

Dia 26 1,025.00 -3.36% 5.866641200946
Dia 27 $1,030.00 0.49% 16.511865991
Dia 28 $1,035.00 0.48% 16.51454921472
Dia 29 $1,065.00 2.86% 8.545994992674
Dia 30 $1,070.00 0.47% 16.53221809472
-15.00% -10.00% -5.00%
Dia 31 $1,045.00 -2.36% 9.835153609772
Dia 32 $1,155.00 10.01% 0.002926537311
Dia 33 $1,160.00 0.43% 16.57003947044
Dia 34 $1,130.00 -2.62% 8.753098064404
Dia 35 $1,165.00 3.05% 7.754647047201
Dia 36 $1,145.00 -1.73% 12.48357885069
Dia 37 $1,135.00 -0.88% 15.40510616524
Dia 38 $1,150.00 1.31% 14.68515792053
Dia 39 $1,160.00 0.87% 15.88221219968
Dia 40 $1,140.00 -1.74% 12.45335271701
Dia 41 $1,170.00 2.60% 9.639805942304
Dia 42 $1,260.00 7.41% 0.150395684728
Dia 43 $1,320.00 4.65% 2.688406585706
Dia 44 $1,365.00 3.35% 6.57408987773
Dia 45 $1,425.00 4.30% 3.522573156977
Dia 46 $1,340.00 -6.15% 0.541373024588
Dia 47 $1,340.00 0.00% 16.72480619557
Dia 48 $1,350.00 0.74% 16.12717461153
Dia 49 $1,360.00 0.74% 16.13725650328
Dia 50 $1,335.00 -1.86% 11.98101053311
Dia 51 $1,285.00 -3.82% 4.355568266869
Dia 52 $1,345.00 4.56% 2.884198885523
Dia 53 $1,380.00 2.57% 9.761382673495
Dia 54 $1,325.00 -4.07% 3.64720000843
Dia 55 $1,350.00 1.87% 12.68241880438
Dia 56 $1,340.00 -0.74% 15.73638947117
Dia 57 $1,290.00 -3.80% 4.399236426348
Dia 58 $1,280.00 -0.78% 15.65442499708
Dia 59 $1,310.00 2.32% 10.83451410738
Dia 60 $1,310.00 0.00% 16.72480619557
Dia 61 $1,300.00 -0.77% 15.68291085215
Dia 62 $1,290.00 -0.77% 15.66882047585
Dia 63 $1,265.00 -1.96% 11.55978721052
Dia 64 $1,265.00 0.00% 16.72480619557
Dia 65 $1,220.00 -3.62% 4.965120136853
Dia 66 $1,280.00 4.80% 2.380968839599
Dia 67 $1,290.00 0.78% 16.06156068188
Dia 68 $1,380.00 6.74% 0.341317719099
Dia 69 $1,400.00 1.44% 14.27360589478
Dia 70 $1,380.00 -1.44% 13.61183985185
Dia 71 $1,350.00 -2.20% 10.54311303143
Dia 72 $1,360.00 0.74% 16.13725650328
Dia 73 $1,380.00 1.46% 14.20223556494
Dia 74 $1,425.00 3.21% 7.124924922159
Dia 75 $1,430.00 0.35% 16.64106324839
Dia 76 $1,435.00 0.35% 16.64197982465
Dia 77 $1,415.00 -1.40% 13.74072947102
Dia 78 $1,445.00 2.10% 11.75306680111
Dia 79 $1,460.00 1.03% 15.48798240119
Dia 80 $1,440.00 -1.38% 13.82793329309
Dia 81 $1,415.00 -1.75% 12.40433307129
Dia 82 $1,370.00 -3.23% 6.323587214216
Dia 83 $1,370.00 0.00% 16.72480619557
Dia 84 $1,395.00 1.81% 12.92168688569
Dia 85 $1,390.00 -0.36% 16.4384387259
Dia 86 $1,395.00 0.36% 16.63433517279
Dia 87 $1,405.00 0.71% 16.17992849256
Dia 88 $1,400.00 -0.36% 16.44178384507
Dia 89 $1,420.00 1.42% 14.34222787213
Dia 90 $1,405.00 -1.06% 14.88149635317
Dia 91 $1,445.00 2.81% 8.75504978985
Dia 92 $1,465.00 1.37% 14.48725190258
Dia 93 $1,405.00 -4.18% 3.349470679265
Dia 94 $1,415.00 0.71% 16.18884807955
Dia 95 $1,400.00 -1.07% 14.87006143865
Dia 96 $1,395.00 -0.36% 16.44011955552
Dia 97 $1,385.00 -0.72% 15.79150412221
Dia 98 $1,410.00 1.79% 12.99718192656
Dia 99 $1,395.00 -1.07% 14.85851624713
Dia 100 $1,395.00 0.00% 16.72480619557
Dia 101 $1,340.00 -4.02% 3.767709655735
Dia 102 $1,360.00 1.48% 14.12797664687
Dia 103 $1,375.00 1.10% 15.31896671557
Dia 104 $1,370.00 -0.36% 16.431545404
Dia 105 $1,420.00 3.58% 5.726564192522
Dia 106 $1,450.00 2.09% 11.78336360249
Dia 107 $1,395.00 -3.87% 4.208275649154
Dia 108 $1,395.00 0.00% 16.72480619557
Dia 109 $1,395.00 0.00% 16.72480619557
Dia 110 $1,415.00 1.42% 14.32532266992
Dia 111 $1,420.00 0.35% 16.63919748575
Dia 112 $1,425.00 0.35% 16.64013585548
Dia 113 $1,410.00 -1.06% 14.89282238029
Dia 114 $1,410.00 0.00% 16.72480619557
Dia 115 $1,400.00 -0.71% 15.80879238455
Dia 116 $1,370.00 -2.17% 10.67802442943
Dia 117 $1,385.00 1.09% 15.34043747297
Dia 118 $1,395.00 0.72% 16.17081095087
Dia 119 $1,395.00 0.00% 16.72480619557
Dia 120 $1,405.00 0.71% 16.17992849256
Dia 121 $1,375.00 -2.16% 10.71111826375
Dia 122 $1,370.00 -0.36% 16.431545404
Dia 123 $1,355.00 -1.10% 14.7620106078
Dia 124 $1,350.00 -0.37% 16.42436853662
Dia 125 $1,370.00 1.47% 14.16547626845
Dia 126 $1,390.00 1.45% 14.23827284658
Dia 127 $1,395.00 0.36% 16.63433517279
Dia 128 $1,410.00 1.07% 15.39218110978
Dia 129 $1,400.00 -0.71% 15.80879238455
Dia 130 $1,410.00 0.71% 16.18441268179
Dia 131 $1,390.00 -1.43% 13.64950737821
Dia 132 $1,365.00 -1.81% 12.14652116602
Dia 133 $1,360.00 -0.37% 16.42799340497
Dia 134 $1,335.00 -1.86% 11.98101053311
Dia 135 $1,340.00 0.37% 16.62254801356
Dia 136 $1,325.00 -1.13% 14.68447182929
Dia 137 $1,295.00 -2.29% 10.15023775918
Dia 138 $1,300.00 0.39% 16.61291066406
Dia 139 $1,250.00 -3.92% 4.048438940978
Dia 140 $1,205.00 -3.67% 4.822572543584
Dia 141 $1,235.00 2.46% 10.22889450238
Dia 142 $1,240.00 0.40% 16.59647387574
Dia 143 $1,230.00 -0.81% 15.57754616893
Dia 144 $1,260.00 2.41% 10.43916400632
Dia 145 $1,240.00 -1.60% 13.00296325585
Dia 146 $1,225.00 -1.22% 14.38880714972
Dia 147 $1,230.00 0.41% 16.59347423374
Dia 148 $1,220.00 -0.82% 15.56112019368
Dia 149 $1,275.00 4.41% 3.248926906312
Dia 150 $1,320.00 3.47% 6.142585015777
Dia 151 $1,330.00 0.75% 16.10630805906
Dia 152 $1,320.00 -0.75% 15.71021051428
Dia 153 $1,290.00 -2.30% 10.11286108498
Dia 154 $1,330.00 3.05% 7.74122410523
Dia 155 $1,325.00 -0.38% 16.41497377836
Dia 156 $1,325.00 0.00% 16.72480619557
Dia 157 $1,320.00 -0.38% 16.41303561534
Dia 158 $1,320.00 0.00% 16.72480619557
Dia 159 $1,325.00 0.38% 16.61904685394
Dia 160 $1,320.00 -0.38% 16.41303561534
Dia 161 $1,295.00 -1.91% 11.74661219446
Dia 162 $1,320.00 1.91% 12.51152283613
Dia 163 $1,345.00 1.88% 12.65459203023
Dia 164 $1,340.00 -0.37% 16.4206687268
Dia 165 $1,365.00 1.85% 12.76437652848
Dia 166 $1,400.00 2.53% 9.919540137657
Dia 167 $1,360.00 -2.90% 7.610484732181
Dia 168 $1,335.00 -1.86% 11.98101053311
Dia 169 $1,300.00 -2.66% 8.60092948519
Dia 170 $1,275.00 -1.94% 11.62315652026
Dia 171 $1,265.00 -0.79% 15.63224005516
Dia 172 $1,230.00 -2.81% 7.986335472814
Dia 173 $1,220.00 -0.82% 15.56112019368
Dia 174 $1,200.00 -1.65% 12.79635666804
Dia 175 $1,235.00 2.87% 8.472890355235
Dia 176 $1,245.00 0.81% 16.00587514976
Dia 177 $1,215.00 -2.44% 9.516556807232
Dia 178 $1,205.00 -0.83% 15.53577420419
Dia 179 $1,170.00 -2.95% 7.41568161199
Dia 180 $1,230.00 5.00% 2.010063588949
Dia 181 $1,245.00 1.21% 14.99286688103
Dia 182 $1,250.00 0.40% 16.59939505613
Dia 183 $1,265.00 1.19% 15.04938724477
Dia 184 $1,275.00 0.79% 16.04366333099
Dia 185 $1,310.00 2.71% 9.171521881687
Dia 186 $1,325.00 1.14% 15.20444911768
Dia 187 $1,315.00 -0.76% 15.7034931441
Dia 188 $1,340.00 1.88% 12.62650677401
Dia 189 $1,325.00 -1.13% 14.68447182929
Dia 190 $1,315.00 -0.76% 15.7034931441
Dia 191 $1,325.00 0.76% 16.10093988883
Dia 192 $1,315.00 -0.76% 15.7034931441
Dia 193 $1,345.00 2.26% 11.09248324492
Dia 194 $1,370.00 1.84% 12.79119750437
Dia 195 $1,340.00 -2.21% 10.4741059357
Dia 196 $1,345.00 0.37% 16.62368636779
Dia 197 $1,335.00 -0.75% 15.72994638735
Dia 198 $1,330.00 -0.38% 16.41689182827
Dia 199 $1,335.00 0.38% 16.62139545949
Dia 200 $1,340.00 0.37% 16.62254801356
Dia 201 $1,315.00 -1.88% 11.86583944871
Dia 202 $1,310.00 -0.38% 16.40909778044
Dia 203 $1,330.00 1.52% 14.01084442979
Dia 204 $1,310.00 -1.52% 13.32766539106
Dia 205 $1,300.00 -0.77% 15.68291085215
Dia 206 $1,300.00 0.00% 16.72480619557
Dia 207 $1,310.00 0.77% 16.08445699925
Dia 208 $1,325.00 1.14% 15.20444911768
Dia 209 $1,280.00 -3.46% 5.524232869318
Dia 210 $1,270.00 -0.78% 15.6397154709
Dia 211 $1,295.00 1.95% 12.36162145129
Dia 212 $1,275.00 -1.56% 13.17082104021
Dia 213 $1,280.00 0.39% 16.60771306872
Dia 214 $1,280.00 0.00% 16.72480619557
Dia 215 $1,315.00 2.70% 9.21559122796
Dia 216 $1,315.00 0.00% 16.72480619557
Dia 217 $1,300.00 -1.15% 14.61618611727
Dia 218 $1,300.00 0.00% 16.72480619557
Dia 219 $1,290.00 -0.77% 15.66882047585
Dia 220 $1,285.00 -0.39% 16.39888017111
Dia 221 $1,240.00 -3.56% 5.153555387427
Dia 222 $1,320.00 6.25% 0.594405902581
Dia 223 $1,325.00 0.38% 16.61904685394
Dia 224 $1,320.00 -0.38% 16.41303561534
Dia 225 $1,315.00 -0.38% 16.41107704815
Dia 226 $1,310.00 -0.38% 16.40909778044
Dia 227 $1,305.00 -0.38% 16.40709751034
Dia 228 $1,320.00 1.14% 15.19230022808
Dia 229 $1,345.00 1.88% 12.65459203023
Dia 230 $1,350.00 0.37% 16.62481074139
Dia 231 $1,340.00 -0.74% 15.73638947117
Dia 232 $1,350.00 0.74% 16.12717461153
Dia 233 $1,380.00 2.20% 11.33603792866
Dia 234 $1,385.00 0.36% 16.63230746824
Dia 235 $1,385.00 0.00% 16.72480619557
Dia 236 $1,380.00 -0.36% 16.43502653391
Dia 237 $1,355.00 -1.83% 12.09229057939
Dia 238 $1,335.00 -1.49% 13.43345763884
Dia 239 $1,350.00 1.12% 15.2632486332
Dia 240 $1,365.00 1.10% 15.29703579936
Dia 241 $1,380.00 1.09% 15.32975883399
Dia 242 $1,385.00 0.36% 16.63230746824
$0.00
 ECOPETROL

2.38%
os por nivel de confianza
Desvíos

2.576

Valor en riesgo
6.14%

edida de Posicion
Curtosis positiva
3.09
Leptocurtica

iciente de asimetria
Asimetria positiva
Simetrica

as de tendencia central
0.09%
0.00%

Distribucion Normal
18
16
14
Distribucion Normal

12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-15.00% -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00%
Retorno Diario
 Nivel de confianza 99%
VAR Modelo de Simulación
Rentabilidad 62.50% Histórica 6.13%
Error Maximo Permitido 1%

Año 2017
Acciones
Nro Precio
Cierre Limite inferior Limite Superior Errores
Dia 1 1,360.00 Limite inferior Limite Superior
Dia 2 1,380.00 1276.67 1443.33 0
Dia 3 1,400.00 1295.44 1464.56 0
Dia 4 1,415.00 1314.22 1485.78 0
Dia 5 1,395.00 1328.30 1501.70 0
Dia 6 1,390.00 1309.52 1480.48 0
Dia 7 1,410.00 1304.83 1475.17 0
Dia 8 1,400.00 1323.60 1496.40 0
Dia 9 1,405.00 1314.22 1485.78 0
Dia 10 1,400.00 1318.91 1491.09 0
Dia 11 1,400.00 1314.22 1485.78 0
Dia 12 1,390.00 1314.22 1485.78 0
Dia 13 1,395.00 1304.83 1475.17 0
Dia 14 1,385.00 1309.52 1480.48 0
Dia 15 1,400.00 1300.14 1469.86 0
Dia 16 1,400.00 1314.22 1485.78 0
Dia 17 1,385.00 1314.22 1485.78 0
Dia 18 1,390.00 1300.14 1469.86 0
Dia 19 1,390.00 1304.83 1475.17 0
Dia 20 1,370.00 1304.83 1475.17 0
Dia 21 1,375.00 1286.05 1453.95 0
Dia 22 1,395.00 1290.75 1459.25 0
Dia 23 1,390.00 1309.52 1480.48 0
Dia 24 1,385.00 1304.83 1475.17 0
Dia 25 1,375.00 1300.14 1469.86 0
Dia 26 1,355.00 1290.75 1459.25 0
Dia 27 1,355.00 1271.97 1438.03 0
Dia 28 1,355.00 1271.97 1438.03 0
Dia 29 1,380.00 1271.97 1438.03 0
Dia 30 1,375.00 1295.44 1464.56 0
Dia 31 1,365.00 1290.75 1459.25 0
Dia 32 1,365.00 1281.36 1448.64 0
Dia 33 1,360.00 1281.36 1448.64 0
Dia 34 1,350.00 1276.67 1443.33 0
Dia 35 1,355.00 1267.28 1432.72 0
Dia 36 1,345.00 1271.97 1438.03 0
Dia 37 1,310.00 1262.59 1427.41 0
Dia 38 1,335.00 1229.73 1390.27 0
Dia 39 1,320.00 1253.20 1416.80 0
Dia 40 1,335.00 1239.12 1400.88 0
Dia 41 1,320.00 1253.20 1416.80 0
Dia 42 1,310.00 1239.12 1400.88 0
Dia 43 1,315.00 1229.73 1390.27 0
Dia 44 1,320.00 1234.42 1395.58 0
Dia 45 1,320.00 1239.12 1400.88 0
Dia 46 1,330.00 1239.12 1400.88 0
Dia 47 1,295.00 1248.51 1411.49 0
Dia 48 1,310.00 1215.65 1374.35 0
Dia 49 1,315.00 1229.73 1390.27 0
Dia 50 1,315.00 1234.42 1395.58 0
Dia 51 1,290.00 1234.42 1395.58 0
Dia 52 1,315.00 1210.96 1369.04 0
Dia 53 1,320.00 1234.42 1395.58 0
Dia 54 1,300.00 1239.12 1400.88 0
Dia 55 1,325.00 1220.34 1379.66 0
Dia 56 1,320.00 1243.81 1406.19 0
Dia 57 1,320.00 1239.12 1400.88 0
Dia 58 1,315.00 1239.12 1400.88 0
Dia 59 1,305.00 1234.42 1395.58 0
Dia 60 1,325.00 1225.04 1384.96 0
Dia 61 1,340.00 1243.81 1406.19 0
Dia 62 1,340.00 1257.89 1422.11 0
Dia 63 1,350.00 1257.89 1422.11 0
Dia 64 1,350.00 1267.28 1432.72 0
Dia 65 1,355.00 1267.28 1432.72 0
Dia 66 1,350.00 1271.97 1438.03 0
Dia 67 1,355.00 1267.28 1432.72 0
Dia 68 1,365.00 1271.97 1438.03 0
Dia 69 1,385.00 1281.36 1448.64 0
Dia 70 1,390.00 1300.14 1469.86 0
Dia 71 1,400.00 1304.83 1475.17 0
Dia 72 1,370.00 1314.22 1485.78 0
Dia 73 1,375.00 1286.05 1453.95 0
Dia 74 1,375.00 1290.75 1459.25 0
Dia 75 1,380.00 1290.75 1459.25 0
Dia 76 1,365.00 1295.44 1464.56 0
Dia 77 1,360.00 1281.36 1448.64 0
Dia 78 1,365.00 1276.67 1443.33 0
Dia 79 1,380.00 1281.36 1448.64 0
Dia 80 1,340.00 1295.44 1464.56 0
Dia 81 1,360.00 1257.89 1422.11 0
Dia 82 1,335.00 1276.67 1443.33 0
Dia 83 1,355.00 1253.20 1416.80 0
Dia 84 1,345.00 1271.97 1438.03 0
Dia 85 1,365.00 1262.59 1427.41 0
Dia 86 1,385.00 1281.36 1448.64 0
Dia 87 1,380.00 1300.14 1469.86 0
Dia 88 1,380.00 1295.44 1464.56 0
Dia 89 1,375.00 1295.44 1464.56 0
Dia 90 1,445.00 1290.75 1459.25 0
Dia 91 1,480.00 1356.46 1533.54 0
Dia 92 1,450.00 1389.31 1570.69 0
Dia 93 1,410.00 1361.15 1538.85 0
Dia 94 1,410.00 1323.60 1496.40 0
Dia 95 1,435.00 1323.60 1496.40 0
Dia 96 1,425.00 1347.07 1522.93 0
Dia 97 1,420.00 1337.68 1512.32 0
Dia 98 1,405.00 1332.99 1507.01 0
Dia 99 1,390.00 1318.91 1491.09 0
Dia 100 1,395.00 1304.83 1475.17 0
Dia 101 1,375.00 1309.52 1480.48 0
Dia 102 1,335.00 1290.75 1459.25 0
Dia 103 1,345.00 1253.20 1416.80 0
Dia 104 1,335.00 1262.59 1427.41 0
Dia 105 1,375.00 1253.20 1416.80 0
Dia 106 1,400.00 1290.75 1459.25 0
Dia 107 1,370.00 1314.22 1485.78 0
Dia 108 1,350.00 1286.05 1453.95 0
Dia 109 1,370.00 1267.28 1432.72 0
Dia 110 1,360.00 1286.05 1453.95 0
Dia 111 1,370.00 1276.67 1443.33 0
Dia 112 1,350.00 1286.05 1453.95 0
Dia 113 1,340.00 1267.28 1432.72 0
Dia 114 1,365.00 1257.89 1422.11 0
Dia 115 1,325.00 1281.36 1448.64 0
Dia 116 1,325.00 1243.81 1406.19 0
Dia 117 1,350.00 1243.81 1406.19 0
Dia 118 1,340.00 1267.28 1432.72 0
Dia 119 1,345.00 1257.89 1422.11 0
Dia 120 1,340.00 1262.59 1427.41 0
Dia 121 1,360.00 1257.89 1422.11 0
Dia 122 1,380.00 1276.67 1443.33 0
Dia 123 1,395.00 1295.44 1464.56 0
Dia 124 1,365.00 1309.52 1480.48 0
Dia 125 1,380.00 1281.36 1448.64 0
Dia 126 1,355.00 1295.44 1464.56 0
Dia 127 1,355.00 1271.97 1438.03 0
Dia 128 1,375.00 1271.97 1438.03 0
Dia 129 1,390.00 1290.75 1459.25 0
Dia 130 1,395.00 1304.83 1475.17 0
Dia 131 1,400.00 1309.52 1480.48 0
Dia 132 1,390.00 1314.22 1485.78 0
Dia 133 1,380.00 1304.83 1475.17 0
Dia 134 1,390.00 1295.44 1464.56 0
Dia 135 1,375.00 1304.83 1475.17 0
Dia 136 1,375.00 1290.75 1459.25 0
Dia 137 1,395.00 1290.75 1459.25 0
Dia 138 1,385.00 1309.52 1480.48 0
Dia 139 1,395.00 1300.14 1469.86 0
Dia 140 1,395.00 1309.52 1480.48 0
Dia 141 1,395.00 1309.52 1480.48 0
Dia 142 1,365.00 1309.52 1480.48 0
Dia 143 1,375.00 1281.36 1448.64 0
Dia 144 1,385.00 1290.75 1459.25 0
Dia 145 1,385.00 1300.14 1469.86 0
Dia 146 1,365.00 1300.14 1469.86 0
Dia 147 1,390.00 1281.36 1448.64 0
Dia 148 1,380.00 1304.83 1475.17 0
Dia 149 1,365.00 1295.44 1464.56 0
Dia 150 1,365.00 1281.36 1448.64 0
Dia 151 1,355.00 1281.36 1448.64 0
Dia 152 1,355.00 1271.97 1438.03 0
Dia 153 1,365.00 1271.97 1438.03 0
Dia 154 1,370.00 1281.36 1448.64 0
Dia 155 1,370.00 1286.05 1453.95 0
Dia 156 1,380.00 1286.05 1453.95 0
Dia 157 1,370.00 1295.44 1464.56 0
Dia 158 1,360.00 1286.05 1453.95 0
Dia 159 1,350.00 1276.67 1443.33 0
Dia 160 1,355.00 1267.28 1432.72 0
Dia 161 1,350.00 1271.97 1438.03 0
Dia 162 1,370.00 1267.28 1432.72 0
Dia 163 1,370.00 1286.05 1453.95 0
Dia 164 1,370.00 1286.05 1453.95 0
Dia 165 1,370.00 1286.05 1453.95 0
Dia 166 1,375.00 1286.05 1453.95 0
Dia 167 1,370.00 1290.75 1459.25 0
Dia 168 1,360.00 1286.05 1453.95 0
Dia 169 1,355.00 1276.67 1443.33 0
Dia 170 1,355.00 1271.97 1438.03 0
Dia 171 1,360.00 1271.97 1438.03 0
Dia 172 1,365.00 1276.67 1443.33 0
Dia 173 1,370.00 1281.36 1448.64 0
Dia 174 1,370.00 1286.05 1453.95 0
Dia 175 1,370.00 1286.05 1453.95 0
Dia 176 1,380.00 1286.05 1453.95 0
Dia 177 1,385.00 1295.44 1464.56 0
Dia 178 1,380.00 1300.14 1469.86 0
Dia 179 1,390.00 1295.44 1464.56 0
Dia 180 1,395.00 1304.83 1475.17 0
Dia 181 1,405.00 1309.52 1480.48 0
Dia 182 1,395.00 1318.91 1491.09 0
Dia 183 1,400.00 1309.52 1480.48 0
Dia 184 1,395.00 1314.22 1485.78 0
Dia 185 1,405.00 1309.52 1480.48 0
Dia 186 1,400.00 1318.91 1491.09 0
Dia 187 1,405.00 1314.22 1485.78 0
Dia 188 1,400.00 1318.91 1491.09 0
Dia 189 1,400.00 1314.22 1485.78 0
Dia 190 1,410.00 1314.22 1485.78 0
Dia 191 1,460.00 1323.60 1496.40 0
Dia 192 1,445.00 1370.54 1549.46 0
Dia 193 1,450.00 1356.46 1533.54 0
Dia 194 1,465.00 1361.15 1538.85 0
Dia 195 1,490.00 1375.23 1554.77 0
Dia 196 1,565.00 1398.70 1581.30 0
Dia 197 1,610.00 1469.11 1660.89 0
Dia 198 1,665.00 1511.35 1708.65 0
Dia 199 1,665.00 1562.98 1767.02 0
Dia 200 1,735.00 1562.98 1767.02 0
Dia 201 1,700.00 1628.69 1841.31 0
Dia 202 1,700.00 1595.83 1804.17 0
Dia 203 1,820.00 1595.83 1804.17 1
Dia 204 1,755.00 1708.48 1931.52 0
Dia 205 1,820.00 1647.46 1862.54 0
Dia 206 1,810.00 1708.48 1931.52 0
Dia 207 1,765.00 1699.09 1920.91 0
Dia 208 1,750.00 1656.85 1873.15 0
Dia 209 1,750.00 1642.77 1857.23 0
Dia 210 1,750.00 1642.77 1857.23 0
Dia 211 1,740.00 1642.77 1857.23 0
Dia 212 1,740.00 1633.38 1846.62 0
Dia 213 1,775.00 1633.38 1846.62 0
Dia 214 1,775.00 1666.24 1883.76 0
Dia 215 1,760.00 1666.24 1883.76 0
Dia 216 1,780.00 1652.16 1867.84 0
Dia 217 1,735.00 1670.93 1889.07 0
Dia 218 1,770.00 1628.69 1841.31 0
Dia 219 1,750.00 1661.54 1878.46 0
Dia 220 1,775.00 1642.77 1857.23 0
Dia 221 1,780.00 1666.24 1883.76 0
Dia 222 1,790.00 1670.93 1889.07 0
Dia 223 1,775.00 1680.32 1899.68 0
Dia 224 1,780.00 1666.24 1883.76 0
Dia 225 1,885.00 1670.93 1889.07 0
Dia 226 1,910.00 1769.50 2000.50 0
Dia 227 1,935.00 1792.97 2027.03 0
Dia 228 1,950.00 1816.43 2053.57 0
Dia 229 1,935.00 1830.52 2069.48 0
Dia 230 1,940.00 1816.43 2053.57 0
Dia 231 1,955.00 1821.13 2058.87 0
Dia 232 1,985.00 1835.21 2074.79 0
Dia 233 2,015.00 1863.37 2106.63 0
Dia 234 2,025.00 1891.53 2138.47 0
Dia 235 2,075.00 1900.92 2149.08 0
Dia 236 2,110.00 1947.86 2202.14 0
Dia 237 2,210.00 1980.71 2239.29 0
2074.58 2345.42 0
Total Errores 1

Error Porcentual 0.42%

Eficiencia Eficiente

Backtesting Ecopetrol
2,500.00

2,000.00

C
1,500.00
C
C
1,000.00

500.00

0.00
Dia 1 Dia 21 Dia 41 Dia 61 Dia 81 Dia 101 Dia 121 Dia 141Dia 161 Dia 181 Dia 201 Dia 221

En esta grafica se puede observar la representacion del Backtesting. Se graficaron los valores de la accion
de ecopetrol del año bursatil anterior junto con los limites inferiores y superiores para cada dia. El amarillo
representa el limite superior, el azul el valor de accion en cada dia y el rojo el limite inferior. Lo que aqui se
puede observar es que la accion muy rara la vez sobrepasa estos limites.
 Column V
Column W
Column X

Dia 201 Dia 221

los valores de la accion

ara cada dia. El amarillo
inferior. Lo que aqui se
imites.
 Desviación
estándar 2.38%

Nivel de confianza 99%

VAR Modelo de Simulación Histórica 6.13%
Error Maximo Permitido 1%

Para un nivel de confianza del 99% las acciones de inversion de Ecopetrol presentan
Simulación Historica que puede ser positiva o negativa en un dia del 6.13%.
Se evidencia que es un modelo eficiente ya que el error minimo permitido de acuerd
1% , los errores encontrados en el modelo fueron solo de 1 equivalente al 0.4%.

De acuerdo a los resultados obtenidos, encontramos que el nivel de confianza al 99%

es tan solo de 2.576 que es muy manejable, consideramos que el valor en riesgo es m
comparado con la aparicion de los errores que es tan solo del 2, teniendo en cuenta
al no tener con que compararlos, un porcentaje muy bajo del solo el 0.84% mostran
en el comportamiento de la accion en el mercado reflejando que es muy buena.
Inversión con una favorabilidad muy alta, ya que en el ultimo año el precio del petro
anotar que desde el 2 de abril de este año, se crea una incertidumbre que lleva el pre
debido a la guerra comercial entre china y EE.UU mostrando una caida del 2.37%.
Noticia tomada de: www.portafolio.co.

Por otro lado se pudo corroborar la importancia de utilizar este tipo de calculos para
futuro de nuestras acciones y portafolios, utilizando de la manera correcta, estas her
dinero o el de otras personas que asesoremos, de alguna forma podra estar protegido
 Total Errores 1
Error Porcentual 0.4%
Eficiencia Eficiente

de inversion de Ecopetrol presentan un VAR segun el modelo de

egativa en un dia del 6.13%.
el error minimo permitido de acuerdo al nivel de confianza es del
n solo de 1 equivalente al 0.4%.

mos que el nivel de confianza al 99%, el aumento ó disminucion diaria

ideramos que el valor en riesgo es muy prudente con solo el 3.75%
s tan solo del 2, teniendo en cuenta que uno de ellos resulta al final
muy bajo del solo el 0.84% mostrando gran eficiencia y regularidad
o reflejando que es muy buena.
e en el ultimo año el precio del petroleo se mostró al alza, cabe
a una incertidumbre que lleva el precio del petroleo a la baja
U mostrando una caida del 2.37%.

de utilizar este tipo de calculos para asi saber cual sera el comportamiento a
ndo de la manera correcta, estas herramientas y procedimientos nuestro
alguna forma podra estar protegido.
 ANALISIS DE RESULTADOS

1. Al calcular el valor en riesgo para la acción de Ecopetrol con un nivel de confianza del 99% sería igual de 6,14%,
Es decir, existe una probabilidad del 99% que un día la acción de Ecopetrol tenga una rentabilidad entre el 6,14% y
el -6,14%.
2. Al calcular los limites inferiores y superiores para el año 2017 con un nivel de confianza del 99% de la serie de
datos se observa un error en la aplicación del VAR para la acción de Ecopetrol, es decir que el error porcentual es
igual al 0.42% Lo que quiere decir que con un nivel de confianza del 99% el precio de la acción de Ecopetrol para el
día siguiente se encontrará entre $1223,89 y $1496,11 pesos por lo que hay 1% de probabilidad del que el precio de
la acción se encuentre por fuera de este rango.
3. Al comparar el nivel de confianza del 99% con el error porcentual de 0.42%, se observa que ese Valor en Riesgo
es eficiente para la medición del riesgo del mercado de la acción de Ecopetrol, debido a que no alcanza el nivel
máximo permitido de errores (1%) para el nivel de confianza utilizado.