Análisis de tendencias de tasas

minfantil

7
7.5
8
8.5
9
9.5

20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
minfantil
07
20
08
year

20
09
20
10
20
11
minfantil

20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
. prais minfantil t, nolog

Prais-Winsten AR(1) regression -- iterated estimates

Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 17

-------------+------------------------------ F( 1, 15) = 106.43
Model | 7.35791094 1 7.35791094 Prob > F = 0.0000
Residual | 1.03697299 15 .069131533 R-squared = 0.8765
-------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = 0.8682
Total | 8.39488393 16 .524680246 Root MSE = .26293

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
minfantil | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
t | -.1338157 .0113518 -11.79 0.000 -.1580115 -.1096199
_cons | 8.964388 .1059758 84.59 0.000 8.738506 9.19027
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
rho | -.1779784
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Mort_inf=8.96-0.13*t
 4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
8
8.5
9
9.5

20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
minfantil
07
20
08
year

Linear prediction
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
minfantil

20
14
20
15
20
16
. prais lnY t, nolog

Prais-Winsten AR(1) regression -- iterated estimates

Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 17

-------------+------------------------------ F( 1, 15) = 579.72
Model | .678825613 1 .678825613 Prob > F = 0.0000
Residual | .017564238 15 .001170949 R-squared = 0.9748
-------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = 0.9731
Total | .696389851 16 .043524366 Root MSE = .03422

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
lnY | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
t | -.0173807 .0013192 -13.17 0.000 -.0201926 -.0145688
_cons | 2.28375 .0122748 186.05 0.000 2.257587 2.309913
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
rho | -.3445763
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Durbin-Watson statistic (original) 2.684004
Durbin-Watson statistic (transformed) 2.091808
 Ajuste exponencial
10
9.5
9
8.5
8
7.5
Ajuste lineal
7
6.5 9.5

6
9
8.5
5.5
8
5
7.5
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 7
t
6.5
mort_inf tasahat 6
5.5
5
En resumen: para mirar las tendencias de las tasas 4.5
tengo que fijarme siempre en la inercia secular. 4

Cuando veamos tendencias a la baja, no conviene

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16
20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20
hacer proyecciones lineales porque en esta las tasas year

en el tiempo se hacen cero. Esto último se soluciona minfantil minfantil

Linear prediction
usando el logaritmo de las tasas graficadas en el
tiempo que da una función exponencial, de modo
tal que nunca alcanzarán el cero.