MODELO THOMAS & FIERING PARA GENERACION DE CAUDALES MENSUALES SINTETICOS

Por: MSc. Ing. Douglas Sarango Julca

Es conveniente efectuar la simulación del funcionamiento de un embalse para toda su vida util, debido a que normalmente no se tiene
registros tan largos, esto se pueden lograr usando el moelo THOMAS - FIERING para la generacion de caudales sinteticos

Q i+1 = Prom Q i +1 + bi (Qi - Prom Qi ) + ti Si +1 (1- (r i )2 )0.5

Donde:

Q i+1 = caudal del mes i + 1

Prom Q i +1 = promedio de los caudales registrados en el mes i +1, obtenido de los registros
Qi = caudal en el mes i
Prom Qi = promedio de los caudales registrados en el mes i, obtenido de los registros
bi = ( ri * Si +1 ) / Si
ti = numero aleatorio con distribución normal, MEDIA CERO Y VARIANCIA UNO
Si = desviacion estandar de los caudales registrados en el mes i
Si +1 = desviacion estandarde los caudales registrados en el mes i + 1
ri = coeficiente de correlacion entre los caudales del mes i y el i +1

CAUDALES MEDIOS MENSUALES HISTORICOS DE ESTACION " A "

AÑO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SET OCT NOV DIC
1965 170.75 76.02 95.89 45.75 0 0 3.15 21.6 37.23 23.51 54.26 57.4
1966 70.73 122.05 32.67 13.06 36.11 0 0.02 1.62 22.71 64.5 77.7 88.17
1967 53.26 89.41 89.6 10.1 24.05 0.01 22.5 28.72 44.15 54.07 48.84 162.2
1968 170.38 92.88 64.11 13.81 1.89 0.05 27.69 37 5.92 8.84 13.96 16.18
1969 88.58 59.84 74.71 38.4 2.08 98.62 39.51 0.24 13.2 23.49 84.37 121.75
1970 130.08 159.78 137.07 58.96 4.25 1.13 0.21 2.93 75.97 48.8 17.65 120.85
1971 105.3 130.19 31.7 35.4 4.6 6 0 7.4 9.8 59.1 37.3 96.3
1972 112.3 100.6 85.5 31.7 7 1.5 6.7 43.8 30.1 43.6 56.2 109.4
1973 75 109.6 90.5 67.6 13.1 0.5 4.7 12.4 52.6 38.5 42.2 66.3
1974 111.1 110.8 78 48.3 9.9 11 21.3 33.8 24.7 28.6 28.4 110
1975 88.5 126 103.2 56.2 22.2 18.6 0 26.3 23.6 79.5 31.4 97.2
1976 122.8 98.8 90.3 28.2 52.6 13.4 16.1 6.7 59.2 6.5 19.9 80.6
1977 106.4 86.1 101.9 37.3 23.6 4.9 8.05 0 33.5 30.6 99.7 60.8
1978 87.3 87.6 113.5 53.5 9.1 6.3 0 0 51.8 19.5 98.6 145
1979 174.8 71.5 79.23 84.35 7.85 0 0.22 20.28 18.06 53.1 52.6 123.3
1980 181.44 132.3 140.7 30.1 37.1 0 2.38 9.48 35.85 60.02 41.77 80.98
1981 186.08 114.88 181.57 24.52 9.18 3.16 0 25.12 45.68 72.36 77.67 121
1982 189.89 112.87 114.28 92.01 1.86 4.56 0 14.09 39.36 54.81 82.18 82.89
1983 81.38 110.87 48.19 67.34 16 25.52 0 0 13.89 21.41 18.6 75.97
1984 157.9 160.81 138.25 28.13 0 0 9.88 42.27 6.07 59.02 123.1 120.49
1985 145.27 113.17 144.96 97.03 11.6 30.85 3.01 6.48 48.66 56.63 110.74 114.36
1986 131.12 128.02 151.68 66.34 17.1 0 4.16 15.29 62.03 39.26 58.52 126.91
1987 157.1 49.69 100.94 41.07 12.19 7.97 34.95 3.86 13.79 47.29 118.99 125.31
1988 112.17 93.22 114.78 76.07 23.32 0 0 0 4.66 47.44 29.53 81.08
1989 104.65 58.32 135.44 25.32 30.54 0 0.65 40.67 28.23 47.59 47.19 94.42
1990 175.85 110.87 79.45 33 5.67 40.29 0.95 23.62 7.17 75.57 69.95 118.89
1991 99.13 66.34 77.67 59.42 25.12 30.54 0 0 25.72 34.55 50.29 51.7
1992 74.06 89.41 82.89 42.07 0 13.19 0 29.13 7.37 34.05 69.05 83.09
1993 126.41 82.99 99.63 60.62 25.62 0.55 7.67 30.94 6.77 40.97 70.35 100.44
1994 149.68 83.44 113.78 75.77 0 2.96 0 7.07 6.37 22.82 38.36 116.72
1995 79.78 83.89 127.92 51.2 8.27 0 4.26 0 7.47 13.49 39.76 77.77
1996 131.63 97.93 55.41 27.73 19.95 0.02 0.58 34.03 10.8 29.03 60.4 22.41
1997 144.16 99.33 101.64 37.06 8.17 0 0.45 13.49 17.2 22.51 47.79 109.66
1998 53.78 72.18 53.92 24.12 0 3.49 0 0 22.7 31.77 71.76 34.29
1999 97.11 73.47 73.26 32.5 8.07 0.05 1.12 1.5 40.7 41.7 54.7 67.5
2000 93.2 97.8 95.4 41.2 7.1 18.1 4.1 12.7 20.4 75 26.1 112.5
2001 132.9 46.2 86.4 49.9 62.6 0.5 13.2 13.6 11.9 50.2 63.7 59.8
2002 158.85 125.7 107.9 42.3 10.1 0.5 27.2 19.7 39.5 48.8 115.3 74.4
2003 184.8 71.4 114 52.3 2.9 9.4 0 19.4 13.1 79.3 43.1 85.4
2004 230.03 111.04 79.41 32.41 16.35 18.88 4.69 11.28 33.6 41.58 55.32 86.39
2005 79.6 152.9 56 17.7 1.1 0.2 0 14 7.9 51.9 63 148.1
2006 165 83.1 61.3 62.6 2.8 5.4 0 20.8 29.2 71.3 62 98.1
2007 113.6 79.2 96.9 33.6 16.3 0.19 5.23 2.23 12.77 37.76 47.54 90.57
2008 168.2 62.7 60.3 40.6 24.7 2.8 1.8 7.7 7.1 48.3 56 133.7
2009 123.1 79.9 63.7 52.6 17.6 0 0 14.38 16.6 26.8 125.3 98.5
Qi = prom 126.6 97.0 93.9 45.3 14.2 8.5 6.1 15.0 25.4 43.7 60.0 94.4
Si = Des Stad 41.49 27.37 32.17 20.53 13.77 16.86 10.01 13.05 17.81 18.84 28.96 31.57
ri 0.052 0.191 0.262 -0.124 -0.124 0.359 0.105 -0.141 -0.006 0.110 0.191 -0.007
bi = (ri .Si+1)/ Si 0.034 0.225 0.167 -0.083 -0.151 0.213 0.136 -0.193 -0.006 0.169 0.209 -0.009
Q max 230.030 160.810 181.570 97.030 62.600 98.620 39.510 43.800 75.970 79.500 125.300 162.200
Q min 53.260 46.200 31.700 10.100 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 4.660 6.500 13.960 16.180

NUMEROS ALEATORIOS CON DISTRIBUCION NORMAL CON MEDIA = 0 Y VARIANZA = 1, PARA PERIODO 2000-2009

AÑO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SET OCT NOV DIC
 2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
Media #DIV/0!
Varianza #DIV/0!

GENERACION DE DIEZ AÑOS DE CAUDALES SINTETICOS PERIODO 2000-2009 CON MODELO THOMAS & FIERING

AÑO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SET OCT NOV DIC
2010 126.52 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2011 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2012 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2013 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2014 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2015 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2016 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2017 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2018 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2019 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2020 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2021 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2022 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2023 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2024 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2025 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2026 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2027 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2028 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2029 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2030 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2031 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2032 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2033 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2034 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2035 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2036 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2037 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2038 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2039 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2040 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2041 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2042 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2043 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2044 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2045 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2046 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2047 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2048 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2049 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2050 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2051 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2052 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2053 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2054 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
Q promedio 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
 AÑO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SET OCT NOV DIC
2010 126.52 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2011 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2012 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2013 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2014 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2015 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2016 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2017 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2018 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2019 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2020 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2021 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2022 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2023 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2024 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2025 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2026 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2027 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2028 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2029 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2030 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2031 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2032 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2033 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2034 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2035 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2036 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2037 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2038 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2039 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2040 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2041 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2042 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2043 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2044 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2045 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2046 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2047 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2048 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2049 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2050 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2051 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2052 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2053 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
2054 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42
Q promedio 126.56 97.00 93.90 45.32 14.21 8.47 6.14 15.01 25.45 43.68 60.03 94.42