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A. ESTACIÓN MANTA
𝒙−𝒙̅
𝒛=
𝒔 ∆
Q MEDIA ANUAL |F(Z)- P(X)
AÑO (m/s) ORDENADO m P (m /n+1) F(Z) |
1953 10.30 5.99 1 0.0323 -1.99 0.0233 0.009
1954 10.28 6.87 2 0.0645 -1.48 0.06944 0.005
1955 9.86 7.22 3 0.0968 -1.28 0.10027 0.003
1956 7.59 7.22 4 0.1290 -1.28 0.10027 0.029
1957 8.34 7.32 5 0.1613 -1.22 0.11123 0.050
1958 9.67 7.59 6 0.1935 -1.07 0.14231 0.051
1959 10.01 7.62 7 0.2258 -1.05 0.14686 0.079
1960 9.14 7.69 8 0.2581 -1.01 0.15625 0.102
1961 12.18 8.34 9 0.2903 -0.64 0.26109 0.029
1962 9.01 8.59 10 0.3226 -0.50 0.30854 0.014
1963 9.16 9.01 11 0.3548 -0.25 0.40129 0.046
1964 7.22 9.16 12 0.3871 -0.16 0.43644 0.049
1965 7.69 9.14 13 0.4194 -0.17 0.43251 0.013
1966 10.86 9.27 14 0.4516 -0.10 0.46017 0.009
1967 5.99 9.67 15 0.4839 0.13 0.55172 0.068
1968 6.87 9.70 16 0.5161 0.15 0.55962 0.043
1969 11.01 9.86 17 0.5484 0.24 0.59483 0.046
1970 10.59 10.01 18 0.5806 0.32 0.62552 0.045
1971 9.70 10.12 19 0.6129 0.39 0.65173 0.039
1972 11.75 10.28 20 0.6452 0.48 0.68439 0.039
1973 13.11 10.30 21 0.6774 0.49 0.68793 0.011
1974 10.47 10.47 22 0.7097 0.59 0.7224 0.013
1975 8.59 10.59 23 0.7419 0.66 0.74537 0.003
1976 7.32 10.73 24 0.7742 0.74 0.77035 0.004
1977 7.62 10.86 25 0.8065 0.81 0.79103 0.015
1978 9.27 11.01 26 0.8387 0.90 0.81594 0.023
1979 7.22 11.73 27 0.8710 1.31 0.9049 0.034
1980 11.73 11.75 28 0.9032 1.33 0.90824 0.005
1981 10.12 12.18 29 0.9355 1.57 0.94179 0.006
1982 10.73 13.11 30 0.9677 2.11 0.98257 0.015
PROMEDIO= 9.45
DESV.
ESTAN= 1.74
1. CÁLCULO DEL ∆
∆= 0.102
2. CALCULO DE ∆ CRÍTICO
∆0=0.24
3. CRITERIO DE DECISÓN
cómo:
∆= 0.102< ∆0=0.24
𝒙−𝒙̅
𝒛=
𝒔 ∆
Q MEDIA ANUAL |F(Z)- P(X)
Año m^3/S) ORDENADO m P (m /n+1) F(Z) |
1953 92.10 56.75 1 0.032 -1.96 0.025 0.007
1954 96.36 62.43 2 0.065 -1.62 0.053 0.012
1955 95.57 68.10 3 0.097 -1.27 0.102 0.005
1956 80.95 69.80 4 0.129 -1.17 0.121 0.008
1957 90.99 72.20 5 0.161 -1.03 0.152 0.010
1958 78.25 72.59 6 0.194 -1.00 0.159 0.035
1959 116.14 73.08 7 0.226 -0.97 0.166 0.060
1960 85.79 77.22 8 0.258 -0.72 0.236 0.022
1961 114.11 78.25 9 0.290 -0.66 0.255 0.036
1962 92.50 78.77 10 0.323 -0.63 0.264 0.058
1963 96.90 80.95 11 0.355 -0.50 0.309 0.046
1964 72.20 85.50 12 0.387 -0.22 0.413 0.026
1965 78.77 85.79 13 0.419 -0.20 0.421 0.001
1966 114.37 86.99 14 0.452 -0.13 0.448 0.003
1967 62.43 88.95 15 0.484 -0.01 0.496 0.012
1968 72.59 90.99 16 0.516 0.11 0.544 0.028
1969 98.10 92.10 17 0.548 0.18 0.571 0.023
1970 105.59 92.50 18 0.581 0.20 0.579 0.001
1971 101.08 94.87 19 0.613 0.35 0.637 0.024
1972 94.87 95.57 20 0.645 0.39 0.652 0.007
1973 121.44 96.36 21 0.677 0.44 0.670 0.007
1974 88.95 96.90 22 0.710 0.47 0.681 0.029
1975 73.08 98.10 23 0.742 0.54 0.705 0.037
1976 77.22 101.08 24 0.774 0.72 0.764 0.010
1977 69.80 105.59 25 0.806 1.00 0.841 0.035
1978 85.50 106.69 26 0.839 1.06 0.855 0.017
1979 56.75 114.11 27 0.871 1.51 0.934 0.064
1980 106.69 114.37 28 0.903 1.53 0.937 0.034
1981 68.10 116.14 29 0.935 1.64 0.950 0.014
1982 86.99 121.44 30 0.968 1.96 0.975 0.007
PROMEDIO= 89.14
DESV.
ESTAN= 16.51
1. CÁLCULO DEL ∆
∆=0.064
2. CALCULO DE ∆ CRÍTICO
∆0=0.24
3. CRITERIO DE DECISÓN
cómo:
∆=0.06< ∆0=0.24
Se concluye que los datos de caudales se ajustan a una distribución normal, con un
nivel de significación del 5%, a una probabilidad del 95%.
C. ESTACIÓN CHUQUICARA
𝒙−𝒙̅
𝒛=
𝒔 ∆
|F(Z)- P(X)
Año Q MEDIA ANUAL m^3/S) ORDENADO m P (m /n+1) F(Z) |
1953 27.76 6.99 1 0.032 -2.05 0.02018 0.012
1954 31.97 10.68 2 0.065 -1.70 0.04457 0.020
1955 30.37 15.45 3 0.097 -1.25 0.10565 0.009
1956 32.30 17.12 4 0.129 -1.09 0.13786 0.009
1957 24.72 17.27 5 0.161 -1.08 0.14007 0.021
1958 50.43 18.91 6 0.194 -0.92 0.17879 0.015
1959 17.27 19.95 7 0.226 -0.82 0.20611 0.020
1960 32.77 22.70 8 0.258 -0.56 0.28774 0.030
1961 47.53 23.00 9 0.290 -0.54 0.2946 0.004
1962 29.25 23.24 10 0.323 -0.51 0.30503 0.018
1963 23.00 23.64 11 0.355 -0.47 0.31918 0.036
1964 23.24 24.72 12 0.387 -0.37 0.35569 0.031
1965 18.91 26.48 13 0.419 -0.21 0.41683 0.003
1966 27.90 27.76 14 0.452 -0.09 0.46414 0.013
1967 15.45 27.90 15 0.484 -0.07 0.4721 0.012
1968 22.70 29.25 16 0.516 0.06 0.52392 0.008
1969 38.85 29.37 17 0.548 0.07 0.5279 0.020
1970 29.37 30.37 18 0.581 0.16 0.56356 0.017
1971 34.73 31.97 19 0.613 0.31 0.62172 0.009
1972 39.97 32.30 20 0.645 0.34 0.63307 0.012
1973 41.14 32.77 21 0.677 0.39 0.65173 0.026
1974 47.15 32.94 22 0.710 0.40 0.65542 0.054
1975 32.94 34.73 23 0.742 0.57 0.71566 0.026
1976 26.48 35.48 24 0.774 0.64 0.73891 0.035
1977 10.68 38.85 25 0.806 0.96 0.83147 0.025
1978 23.64 39.97 26 0.839 1.07 0.85769 0.019
1979 6.99 41.14 27 0.871 1.18 0.881 0.010
1980 35.48 47.15 28 0.903 1.75 0.95994 0.057
1981 19.95 47.53 29 0.935 1.78 0.96246 0.027
1982 17.12 50.43 30 0.968 2.06 0.9803 0.013
PROMEDIO= 28.67
DESV. ESTAN= 10.59
1. CÁLCULO DEL ∆
∆=0.057
2. CALCULO DE ∆ CRÍTICO
∆0=0.24
3. CRITERIO DE DECISÓN
cómo:
∆= 0.057< ∆0=0.24
ESTACIÓN MANTA
A. P (Q≤10 m^3/s)
P(Q≤10) =F(Q=10)
Z=0.3161 F(Z)=0.62552
P(Q≤10) =0.62552=62.55%
B. P (Q≥7 m^3/S)
P(Q≥7) =1-P(Q<7)
P(Q≥7) =1-F(Q=7)
Z=-1.40805 F(Z)=0.92073
Luego: P(Q≥7) =1-(1-0.92073)
P(Q≥7) =0.92073=92.07%
C. P (7≤Q≤11 m^3/s)
si Q=11 11 − 9.45
𝑍=
1.74
Z= 0.891 F(Z)=0.81327
7 − 9.45
si Q=7 𝑍=
1.74
Z=-1.408 F(Z)=0.07927
Luego:
F (7)-F (11) =0.734
P(7≤Q≤11) =0.734=73.4%
ESTACIÓN BALSA
A. P (Q≤90 m^3/s)
P(Q≤90) =F(Q=90)
𝑄 − 𝑄̅
𝑍=
𝑆
90 − 89.14
𝑍=
16.51
Z=0.0521 F(Z)=0.52193
P(Q≤10) =0.52193=52.19%
B. P (Q≥70 m^3/S)
P(Q≥70) =1-P(Q<70)
P(Q≥70) =1-F(Q=70)
70 − 89.14
Z=
16.51
Z=-1.159 F(Z)=0.12302
P(Q≥70) =0.12302=12.30%
C. P (70≤Q≤120 m^3/s)
Z= 1.8692 F(Z)=0.96856
si Q=70
70 − 89.14
𝑍=
16.51
Z=-1.1593 F(Z)=0.12507
P(70≤Q≤120) =0.84349=84.35%
ESTACIÓN CHUQUICARA
A. P (Q≤30 m^3/s)
P(Q≤30) = F(Q=30)
𝑄 − 𝑄̅
𝑍=
𝑆
30 − 28.67
𝑍=
10.59
Z=0.126 F(Z)=0.54974
P(Q≤30) =0.54974=54.97%
B. P (Q≥10 m^3/S)
P(Q≥10) =1-P(Q<10)
P(Q≥10) =1-F(Q=10)
Z=-1.763 F(Z)=0.03963
P(Q≥70) =0.03963=3.963%
C. P (10≤Q≤30 m^3/s)
si Q=30 30 − 28.67
𝑍=
10.59
Z= 0.126 F(Z)=0.54974
si Q=10
10 − 28.67
𝑍=
10.59
Z=-1.763 F(Z)=0.03963
F(Z)≈P(Q≤10)
Z=0.3161 F(Z)=0.62552
Luego:
T=2.7 ≈3 Años
ESTACIÓN BALSA
F(Z)≈P(Q≤90)
Z=0.0521 F(Z)=0.52193
Luego:
T=2.09≈2 Años
ESTACIÓN CHUQUICARA
F(Z)≈P(Q≤30)
Z=0.126 F(Z)=0.54974
Luego:
T=2.22≈2 Años
4. CAUDALES PARA TIEMPOS DE RETORNO DE 25,50 Y 100 AÑOS
ESTACIÓN MANTA
𝑇−1
𝐹(𝑍) =
𝑇
F(Z)=0.96 Z= 1.755
Q=12.504 m3/s
F(Z)=0.98 Z=2.065
Q=13.043 m3/s
F(Z)=0.99 Z=2.325
Q=13.495 m3/s
ESTACIÓN BALSA
F(Z)=0.96 Z= 1.755
Q=118.115 m3/s
F(Z)=0.98 Z=2.065
Q=123.233 m3/s
F(Z)=0.99 Z=2.325
Q=127.526 m3/s
ESTACIÓN CHUQUICARA
F(Z)=0.96 Z= 1.755
Q=47.255 m3/s
F(Z)=0.98 Z=2.065
Q=50.538 m3/s
F(Z)=0.99 Z=2.325
Q=53.292 m3/s
FUNCIÓN EXPONENCIAL
Se realiza la prueba de bondad de ajuste al igual que en la función normal
estándar.
x
x x
p ( x x) e 1 e
0
1
x
CALCULO DE PROBABILIDADES
a) P (Q≤10 m^3/s)
10
P 1 e 9.45 P=0.653
ESTACIÓN BALSA
a) P (Q≤90 m^3/s)
90
P 1 e 89.14
P=0.636
ESTACIÓN CHUQUICARA
a) P (Q≤30 m^3/s)
30
P 1 e 28.67
P=0.649