CUADRO RESUMEN PRECIPITACIONES MÁXIMAS, CON DATOS

CORREGIDOS EN EL ANÁLISIS DE CONSISTENCIA

AÑOS OLMOS MOTUPE PASABAR PASAJE SUR

1 1964 11.60 6.02 7.90 8.87
2 1965 98.50 51.14 67.05 75.36
3 1966 30.30 15.73 20.63 23.18
4 1967 51.80 26.89 35.26 39.63
5 1968 16.40 8.51 11.16 12.55
6 1969 73.00 37.90 49.69 55.85
7 1970 11.30 5.87 7.69 8.65
8 1971 58.00 30.11 39.48 44.37
9 1972 36.00 18.69 24.51 27.54
10 1973 78.00 40.50 53.10 59.67
11 1974 16.70 8.67 11.37 12.78
12 1975 0.89 0.46 0.61 0.68
13 1976 58.50 30.37 39.82 44.76
14 1977 1.23 0.64 0.84 0.94
15 1978 3.50 1.82 2.38 2.68
16 1979 21.90 11.37 14.91 16.75
17 1980 5.80 3.01 3.95 4.44
18 1981 85.11 44.19 57.94 65.11
19 1982 26.50 13.76 18.04 20.27
20 1983 35.60 18.48 24.23 27.24
21 1984 97.52 50.63 66.38 74.61
22 1985 8.50 4.41 5.79 6.50
23 1986 7.90 4.10 5.38 6.04
24 1987 44.20 22.95 30.09 33.82
25 1988 78.60 40.81 53.51 60.13
26 1989 12.20 6.33 8.30 9.33
27 1990 11.60 6.02 7.90 8.87
28 1991 5.00 2.60 3.40 3.83
29 1992 95.00 49.32 64.67 72.68
30 1993 71.40 37.07 48.60 54.62
31 1994 100.50 52.18 68.41 76.89
32 1995 29.80 15.47 20.29 22.80
33 1996 25.30 13.14 17.22 19.36
34 1997 95.60 49.63 65.08 73.14
35 1998 35.60 18.48 24.23 27.24
36 1999 65.75 34.14 44.76 50.30
37 2000 75.00 38.94 51.05 57.38
38 2001 71.00 36.86 48.33 54.32
39 2002 46.00 23.88 31.31 35.19
40 2003 45.90 23.83 31.25 35.12
41 2004 10.30 5.35 7.01 7.88
42 2005 0.50 0.26 0.34 0.38
43 2006 7.00 3.63 4.77 5.36
44 2007 22.57 11.72 15.36 17.27
45 2008 14.28 7.41 9.72 10.92
46 2009 4.09 2.12 2.78 3.13
47 2010 7.10 3.69 4.83 5.43
48 2011 15.30 7.94 10.42 11.71
49 2012 51.20 26.58 34.85 39.17
50 2013 6.60 3.43 4.49 5.05
51 2014 6.60 3.43 4.49 5.05
2015 25.00 12.98 17.02 19.13
2016 75.00 38.94 51.05 57.38
2017 83.00 43.09 56.50 63.50
Pmax 100.50 52.18 68.41 76.89
TOTAL DATOS= N= 54

DETERMINAR PRUEBA DE
m X (MM) P1(x) = m/(N+1) P1 (X)*100
1 0.38 0.0182 1.82
2 0.68 0.0364 3.64
3 0.94 0.0545 5.45
4 2.68 0.0727 7.27
5 3.13 0.0909 9.09
6 3.83 0.1091 10.91
7 4.44 0.1273 12.73
8 5.05 0.1455 14.55
9 5.05 0.1636 16.36
10 5.36 0.1818 18.18
11 5.43 0.2000 20.00
12 6.04 0.2182 21.82
13 6.50 0.2364 23.64
14 7.88 0.2545 25.45
15 8.65 0.2727 27.27
16 8.87 0.2909 29.09
17 8.87 0.3091 30.91
18 9.33 0.3273 32.73
19 10.92 0.3455 34.55
20 11.71 0.3636 36.36
21 12.55 0.3818 38.18
22 12.78 0.4000 40.00
23 16.75 0.4182 41.82
24 17.27 0.4364 43.64
25 19.13 0.4545 45.45
26 19.36 0.4727 47.27
27 20.27 0.4909 49.09
28 22.80 0.5091 50.91
29 23.18 0.5273 52.73
30 27.24 0.5455 54.55
31 27.24 0.5636 56.36
32 27.54 0.5818 58.18
33 33.82 0.6000 60.00
34 35.12 0.6182 61.82
35 35.19 0.6364 63.64
36 39.17 0.6545 65.45
37 39.63 0.6727 67.27
38 44.37 0.6909 69.09
39 44.76 0.7091 70.91
40 50.30 0.7273 72.73
41 54.32 0.7455 74.55
42 54.62 0.7636 76.36
43 55.85 0.7818 78.18
44 57.38 0.8000 80.00
 45 57.38 0.8182 81.82
46 59.67 0.8364 83.64
47 60.13 0.8545 85.45
48 63.50 0.8727 87.27
49 65.11 0.8909 89.09
50 72.68 0.9091 90.91
51 73.14 0.9273 92.73
52 74.61 0.9455 94.55
53 75.36 0.9636 96.36
54 76.89 0.9818 98.18

∑= 1584.83

PROMEDIO = 29.35
DESVIAC.ESTAND.= 24.50

ps= ? Z= (Pr-x)/s Ps= x+Zs (Tr-1)/Tr=

Tr (años) Z INTERPOLAR
2 0
5 0.842
10 1.282
25 1.751
50 2.053
100 2.326
200 2.576

Los ps fueron calculados y confirmados en programa

Tr= 2 años Tr= 5 años Tr=
z= 0 z= 0.842 z=
Ps= 29.35 mm Ps= 49.98 mm Ps=
Tr= 100 años Tr= 200 años
z= 2.326 z= 2.576
Ps= 86.34 mm Ps= 92.46 mm

∆t (Horas)
Tr (Años)
2 4 6 8 10 12
2 14.674 7.337 4.891 3.669 2.935 2.446
5 24.989 12.494 8.330 6.247 4.998 4.165
10 30.379 15.189 10.126 7.595 6.076 5.063
25 36.124 18.062 12.041 9.031 7.225 6.021
50 39.824 19.912 13.275 9.956 7.965 6.637
100 43.168 21.584 14.389 10.792 8.634 7.195
200 46.230 23.115 15.410 11.558 9.246 7.705
 CURVA IDF
50.000

45.000
Intensidad (mm/h)

40.000

35.000

30.000

25.000

20.000

15.000

10.000

5.000

0.000
0 5 10 15

Duracion (horas)

Tr = 2 años Tr = 5 años Tr = 10 años Tr = 25 años Tr = 5

DE PROGRAMA HIDROESTA

METODOS ESTADISTICOS O DISTRIBUCIONES

Tr (años) LOG NORMAL 2 LOG NORMAL 3
NORMAL GAMMA 2P GAMMA 3P
P P

2 29.35 17.02 22.56 20.75 27.04

5 49.96 49.53 45.91 47.03 49.01
10 60.75 86.63 63.76 66.71 61.85
25 72.25 157.21 88.81 92.62 76.61
50 79.68 231 109.2 112.14 86.74
100 86.36 326.54 131.02 131.59 96.24
200 92.47 448.22 154.38 150.95 105.24

PRECIPITACIONES DE DISEÑO POR LOS TR

2000.00
 PRECIPITACIONES DE DISEÑO POR LOS TR
2000.00

200.00
Precipitacion (mm)

20.00

2.00

0.20
0.25 2.50 25.00

Tr (Años)

REGISTRO HISTORICO NORMAL Column D LOG NORMAL 3P C

Column G LOG PERSON T3 Column I Column J
DETERMINAR PRUEBA DE BONDAD DE AJUSTE
P2 (X) = m/N P2 (X)*100 Z F(Z) /F(Z)-P1/ /F(Z)-P2/
0.0185 1.85 -1.18 0.1185 0.1004 0.1000
0.0370 3.70 -1.17 0.1210 0.0846 0.0839
0.0556 5.56 -1.16 0.1231 0.0686 0.0676
0.0741 7.41 -1.09 0.1382 0.0654 0.0641
0.0926 9.26 -1.07 0.1423 0.0514 0.0497
0.1111 11.11 -1.04 0.1488 0.0397 0.0376
0.1296 12.96 -1.02 0.1546 0.0274 0.0250
0.1481 14.81 -0.99 0.1606 0.0152 0.0125 80.00
0.1667 16.67 -0.99 0.1606 0.0030 0.0060
70.00
0.1852 18.52 -0.98 0.1637 0.0181 0.0215
0.2037 20.37 -0.98 0.1645 0.0355 0.0392 60.00

precipitacion (mm)
0.2222 22.22 -0.95 0.1707 0.0474 0.0515 50.00
0.2407 24.07 -0.93 0.1755 0.0608 0.0652
40.00
0.2593 25.93 -0.88 0.1904 0.0641 0.0688
0.2778 27.78 -0.85 0.1990 0.0737 0.0787 30.00
0.2963 29.63 -0.84 0.2017 0.0892 0.0946 20.00
0.3148 31.48 -0.84 0.2017 0.1074 0.1131
10.00
0.3333 33.33 -0.82 0.2070 0.1203 0.1264
0.3519 35.19 -0.75 0.2260 0.1194 0.1258 0.00
0.00 10.00 20.00
0.3704 37.04 -0.72 0.2357 0.1279 0.1347
0.3889 38.89 -0.69 0.2464 0.1354 0.1425
0.4074 40.74 -0.68 0.2494 0.1506 0.1580
0.4259 42.59 -0.51 0.3036 0.1146 0.1223
0.4444 44.44 -0.49 0.3110 0.1254 0.1335
0.4630 46.30 -0.42 0.3383 0.1163 0.1247
0.4815 48.15 -0.41 0.3417 0.1310 0.1398
0.5000 50.00 -0.37 0.3555 0.1354 0.1445
0.5185 51.85 -0.27 0.3946 0.1145 0.1239
0.5370 53.70 -0.25 0.4006 0.1267 0.1364
0.5556 55.56 -0.09 0.4656 0.0798 0.0899
0.5741 57.41 -0.09 0.4656 0.0980 0.1084
0.5926 59.26 -0.07 0.4706 0.1112 0.1220
0.6111 61.11 0.18 0.5723 0.0277 0.0388
0.6296 62.96 0.24 0.5930 0.0251 0.0366
0.6481 64.81 0.24 0.5943 0.0421 0.0539
0.6667 66.67 0.40 0.6557 0.0012 0.0109
0.6852 68.52 0.42 0.6626 0.0101 0.0226
0.7037 70.37 0.61 0.7301 0.0392 0.0264
0.7222 72.22 0.63 0.7353 0.0262 0.0131
0.7407 74.07 0.86 0.8038 0.0765 0.0630
0.7593 75.93 1.02 0.8459 0.1005 0.0867
0.7778 77.78 1.03 0.8489 0.0852 0.0711
0.7963 79.63 1.08 0.8603 0.0785 0.0640
0.8148 81.48 1.14 0.8737 0.0737 0.0589
 0.8333 83.33 1.14 0.8737 0.0555 0.0404
0.8519 85.19 1.24 0.8921 0.0557 0.0402
0.8704 87.04 1.26 0.8955 0.0410 0.0252
0.8889 88.89 1.39 0.9183 0.0456 0.0294
0.9074 90.74 1.46 0.9278 0.0369 0.0204
0.9259 92.59 1.77 0.9615 0.0524 0.0356
0.9444 94.44 1.79 0.9631 0.0358 0.0186
0.9630 96.30 1.85 0.9676 0.0222 0.0047
0.9815 98.15 1.88 0.9698 0.0062 0.0117
1.0000 100.00 1.94 0.9738 0.0080 0.0262

∆t= 0.151 0.158

∆o= 0.1850 *TABLA
(P=95%)
(α=5%)

CONDICION: ∆o>∆t CUMPLE

0.9 *zinterpolar

0.93319 1E-08
0.9 x
0.93448 0.01
X= -0.25728655

10 años Tr= 25 años Tr= 50

1.282 Z= 1.751 z= 2.053
60.76 mm PS= 72.25 mm Ps= 79.65

∆t (Horas)
13 14 16 18 20 22 24
2.258 2.096 1.834 1.630 1.467 1.334 1.223
3.844 3.570 3.124 2.777 2.499 2.272 2.082
4.674 4.340 3.797 3.375 3.038 2.762 2.532
5.558 5.161 4.516 4.014 3.612 3.284 3.010
6.127 5.689 4.978 4.425 3.982 3.620 3.319
6.641 6.167 5.396 4.796 4.317 3.924 3.597
7.112 6.604 5.779 5.137 4.623 4.203 3.853
CURVA IDF

15 20

Tr = 25 años Tr = 50 años Tr = 100 años Tr = 200 años

O DISTRIBUCIONES Tr (años) P (mm)

LOG PERSON T3 GUMBEL LOG GUMBEL 55.00 107.48

25.32 13.81 27.50 73.39

46.98 42.42 18.33 71.33
61.31 89.17 13.75 47.99
79.42 227.99 11.00 42.12
92.86 457.45 9.17 36.71
106.2 913.14 7.86 35.66
119.49 1818.2 6.88 27.26
6.11 25.83
5.50 22.19
5.00 19.44
4.58 18.67
4.23 17.25
POR LOS TR
POR LOS TR 3.93 16.98
3.67 13.12
3.44 12.84
3.24 10.67
3.06 8.75
2.89 8.51
2.75 7.01
2.62 6.25
2.50 6.21
2.39 6.14
2.29 5.50
2.20 5.30
2.12 5.18
2.04 3.63
1.96 3.18
1.90 3.09
1.83 2.71
1.77 2.62
25.00 250.00
1.72 2.00
1.67 1.97
1.62 1.83
LOG NORMAL 3P Column F 1.57 1.71
Column J
1.53 1.46
1.49 1.39
1.45 1.39
1.41 1.35
1.38 1.23
1.34 1.02
1.31 0.95
1.28 0.85
1.25 0.79
1.22 0.79
1.20 0.70
1.17 0.60
1.15 0.49
1.12 0.06
1.10 0
1.08 0.00
 80.00

70.00

60.00
precipitacion (mm)

50.00

40.00

30.00

20.00

10.00

0.00
0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 90.00 100.00
Probabilidad (%)

P (%) P(mm)
16 4.85
50 29.35
80 53.85
 5.3

años

mm
0.38

0.68
0.94
2.68
3.13
3.83
4.44
5.05
5.05
5.36
5.43
6.04
6.50
 7.88
8.65
8.87
8.87
9.33
10.92
11.71
12.55
12.78
16.75
17.27
19.13
19.36
20.27
22.80
23.18
27.24
27.24
27.54
33.82
35.12
35.19
39.17
39.63
44.37
44.76
50.30
54.32
54.62
55.85
57.38
57.38
59.67
60.13
63.50
65.11
72.68
73.14