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INSTRUMENTOS DE EVALUACIÓN
PLANEACIÓN Y PROGRAMACIÓN DEL
SISTEMA DE PRODUCCIÓN.
Versión 1
Código:
CUESTIONARIO (Evidencia 1)
1- DATOS GENERALES
Señor Evaluado:
Usted debe:
Result ado de aprendizaje 1/1: Estimating the demand for a product or family of
products.
Forecast is a tool that allows you to estimate the probability of future events.
Qualitative methods
Qualitative techniques are used when data is scarce, for example when a
new product is introduced to the market.
Quantitative methods
Time series analysis methods are used to make detailed analyzes of the
historical patterns of a variable over time and to project them into the future.
Moving averages.
Weighted moving averages
Exponential smoothing
Quantitative methods
Qualitative techniques are used when data are scarce, and are useful for
long-term forecasts, sales forecasts and new product development, capital
investments, strategic planning and technology forecasts
Delphi method
Used for long-term forecasts, forecasts of new product sales and technology
forecasts
It is used when launching a new product and is based on the fact that almost
all products and services.
Market research
It is used to evaluate and test hypotheses about real markets
Moving averages
Linear regression
Exponential smoothing
Least squares
4. Through a case taken from his company apply and explain the
different ways to find the error in forecasts of demand for a product.
Don Federico, the neighborhood hairdresser, learned that you are learning to
make predictions, and asks him to help you in this matter.
As your teachers have told you, what you have learned in this area should be
useful for any type of company. Thus,
We suggest you try to advise him as he advances on this topic, and in the
process he will assimilate the methodology without great
Risks in case of mistakes...
What does Don Federico say?
"There are many people coming in days, and I cannot cope ... And other
days, we stayed looking at each other's faces
Because no one comes in ... The days that we are full of people, we lose
some customers who do not want to wait so long...
Sistema de Regional Distrito Capital
Gestión de la
Calidad Centro de Gestión Industrial Fecha:
Estructura curricular: Gestión de la Producción Industrial Septiembre
Norma de Competencia Laboral: 2009
Elaborar el plan general de producción, según el plan de ventas, niveles de inventario y Versión: 1
capacidad de producción. Pág. 2 de 7
I have the possibility of taking hairdressers for the day, as long as I advise
them a week in advance...
But how do I do that, if this seems to be totally random? "
Let's focus first on seeing the demands per week, and finally review what
happens every day.
Initial objective: to tell you how many people per day we expect you to attend
next week (week number 6?)
The first thing we do is sort the number of people who attended per day, from
the last 5 weeks, in a table, and
So we can see a weekly and total average:
x week 1 2 3 4 5
Monday 10 12 11 14 13
Tuesday 20 23 25 29 26
Wednesday 15 19 19 21 20
Thursday 20 25 25 27 27
Friday 30 36 37 41 38
Saturday 50 60 62 68 66
Average Daily
Demand 24,2 29,2 29,8 33,3 31,7
Using the different forecasting methods, go suggesting the forecast for week
Sistema de Regional Distrito Capital
Gestión de la
Calidad Centro de Gestión Industrial Fecha:
Estructura curricular: Gestión de la Producción Industrial Septiembre
Norma de Competencia Laboral: 2009
Elaborar el plan general de producción, según el plan de ventas, niveles de inventario y Versión: 1
capacidad de producción. Pág. 2 de 7
The following expression is used to calculate the difference between the two
moving averages. The following equation is an additional adjustment factor.
The following expression is the one used to calculate the forecast for p
periods towards the future. N is the number of periods in the moving average.
p is the number of periods to forecast.