Semana 1 (Del 02 Jul al 06 de Jul 2018)

Días Cantidad de almuerzos vendidos

Lunes Festivo
Martes 6
Miércoles 17
Jueves 19
Viernes 13

Semana 2 (Del 09 Jul al 13 de Jul 2018)

Días Cantidad de almuerzos vendidos
Lunes 13
Martes 9
Miércoles 20
Jueves 18
Viernes 21

Semana 3 (Del 16 Jul al 20 de Jul 2018)

Días Cantidad de almuerzos vendidos
Lunes 15
Martes 12
Miércoles 18
Jueves 19
Viernes Festivo

Semana 4 (Del 23 Jul al 27 de Jul 2018)

Días Cantidad de almuerzos vendidos
Lunes 18
Martes 21
Miércoles 11
Jueves 14
Viernes 11
 Semana 5 (Del 30 Jul al 03 de Ago 2018)
Días Cantidad de almuerzos vendidos
Lunes 19
Martes 18
Miércoles 15
Jueves 15
Viernes 18

Semana 6 (Del 06 al 10 de Ago 2018)

Días Cantidad de almuerzos vendidos
Lunes 19
Martes Festivo
Miércoles 8
Jueves 12
Viernes 11

Semana 7 (Del 13 al 17 de Ago 2018)

Días Cantidad de almuerzos vendidos
Lunes 20
Martes 14
Miércoles 18
Jueves 12
Viernes 25

Semana 8 (Del 20 al 24 de Ago 2018)

Días Cantidad de almuerzos vendidos
Lunes Festivo
Martes 18
Miércoles 16
Jueves 14
Viernes 17
 25
DIAS-SEMANDEMANDA REt Pronostico
et=Xt-t ABS (et)
1 6 20
2 17 6 11 11 15
3 19 11.5 7.5 7.5
4 13 14 -1 1 10
5 13 13.75 -0.75 0.75 5
6 9 13.6 -4.60 4.60
7 20 12.8333333 7.17 7.17 0
8 18 13.8571429 4.14 4.14
9 21 14.375 6.63 6.63
10 15 15.1111111 -0.11 0.11
11 12 15.1 -3.10 3.10
12 18 14.8181818 3.18 3.18
13 19 15.0833333 3.92 3.92
14 18 15.3846154 2.62 2.62
15 21 15.5714286 5.43 5.43
16 11 15.9333333 -4.93 4.93 ME
17 14 15.625 -1.63 1.63 MAE
18 11 15.5294118 -4.53 4.53
19 19 15.2777778 3.72 3.72
20 18 15.4736842 2.53 2.53
21 15 15.6 -0.60 0.60
22 15 15.5714286 -0.57 0.57
23 18 15.2727273 2.73 2.73
24 19 15.6521739 3.35 3.35
25 8 15.7916667 -7.79 7.79
26 12 15.48 -3.48 3.48
27 11 15.3461538 -4.35 4.35
28 20 15.1851852 4.81 4.81
29 14 15.3571429 -1.36 1.36
30 18 15.3103448 2.69 2.69
31 12 15.4 -3.40 3.40
32 25 15.2903226 9.71 9.71
33 18 15.59375 2.41 2.41
34 16 15.6666667 0.33 0.33
35 14 15.6764706 -1.68 1.68
36 17 15.6285714 1.37 1.37
37 15.6666667
25

20

15
DEMANDA REAL
10 Xt
t Pronostico
5

Promedio movil
0.692546730317
3.3514387750913
n= 3

DIAS-SEMANAS DEMANDA REAL Xt t Pronostico et=Xt-t ABS (et)

1 6
2 17
3 19
4 13 14 -1 1
5 13 16.33 -3.33 3.33
6 9 15.00 -6.00 6.00
7 20 11.67 8.33 8.33
8 18 14.00 4.00 4.00
9 21 15.67 5.33 5.33
10 15 19.67 -4.67 4.67
11 12 18.00 -6.00 6.00
12 18 16.00 2.00 2.00
13 19 15.00 4.00 4.00
14 18 16.33 1.67 1.67
15 21 18.33 2.67 2.67
16 11 19.33 -8.33 8.33
17 14 16.67 -2.67 2.67
18 11 15.33 -4.33 4.33
19 19 12.00 7.00 7.00
20 18 14.67 3.33 3.33
21 15 16.00 -1.00 1.00
22 15 17.33 -2.33 2.33
23 18 16.00 2.00 2.00
24 19 16.00 3.00 3.00
25 8 17.33 -9.33 9.33
26 12 15.00 -3.00 3.00
27 11 13.00 -2.00 2.00
28 20 10.33 9.67 9.67
29 14 14.33 -0.33 0.33
30 18 15.00 3.00 3.00
31 12 17.33 -5.33 5.33
32 25 14.67 10.33 10.33
33 18 18.33 -0.33 0.33
34 16 18.33 -2.33 2.33
35 14 19.67 -5.67 5.67
36 17 16.00 1.00 1.00
37 15.67
38 10.33
39 5.67
 1
25 2 Miérc
3 Jueve
20 4 Viern
15 semana 2
DEMANDA REAL 5 Lunes
10 Xt 6 Marte
t Pronostico
5 7 Miérc
8 Jueve
0 9 Viern
semana 3
10 Lunes
11 Marte
12 Miérc
13 Jueve
Semana 4
14 Lunes
Promedio movil 15 Marte
ME -0.020202020202 16 Miérc
MAE 4.10101010101 17 Jueve
18 Viern
 Semana 1 Semana 5
Martes 6 19 Lunes 19
17 20 Marte 18
19 21 Miérc 15
13 22 Jueve 15
semana 2 23 Viern 18
13 Semana 6
9 24 Lunes 19
20 25 Miérc 8
18 26 Jueve 12
21 27 Viern 11
semana 3 Semana 7
15 28 Lunes 20
12 29 Marte 14
18 30 Miérc 18
19 31 Jueve 12
Semana 4 32 Viern 25
18 Semana 8
21 33 Marte 18
11 34 Miérc 16
14 35 Jueve 14
11 36 Viern 17
DIAS DEMANDA REAL Xt Promedio Ponderadot et=Xt-t
1 6
2 17
3 19
4 13 17.7952999252961 -4.80
5 13 15.1197151356019 -2.12
6 9 13.2561803008874 -4.26
7 20 10.4700723794874 9.53
8 18 16.128087823668 1.87
9 21 18.2653723047834 2.73
10 15 19.9828391490136 -4.98
11 12 17.0770184187874 -5.08
12 18 13.3587345855029 4.64
13 19 15.9229815812126 3.08
14 18 18.3763016042407 -0.38
15 21 18.3248213780573 2.68
16 11 19.940142432199 -8.94
17 14 14.5470907982748 -0.55
18 11 13.3244128835301 -2.32
19 19 11.9744641341718 7.03
20 18 16.1879453914689 1.81
21 15 18.0259443603553 -3.03
22 15 16.1452510014301 -1.15
23 18 15.1280901504437 2.87
24 19 16.8974457153845 2.10
25 8 18.5043917546844 -10.50
26 12 12.0000023267757 0.00
27 11 10.9995915054729 0.00
28 20 11.1967312276136 8.80
29 14 16.735033862968 -2.74
30 18 15.8208381179 2.18
31 12 16.7861079214 -4.79
32 25 14.0343217019728 10.97
33 18 20.4784450675534 -2.48
34 16 20.0175693455135 -4.02
35 14 17.0339132074457 -3.03
36 17 14.8204296233728 2.18
37 15.9828391490136
38 6.11971746237767
39 0.725844185847659
ABS (et) MAD t w
1 0.04269672 25
2 0.32482138
3 0.63248191
20
4.79529992529606 Suma 1
2.11971513560194 0.252194714
4.25618030088741 13.23384227 15
9.52992762051262 16.36573071
1.87191217633203 19.85634416
10
2.73462769521656 15.37749552
4.9828391490136 10.66047032
5.07701841878737 15.57173065 5
4.64126541449705 18.85874511
3.07701841878737 20.57990549
0
0.376301604240744 21.15762213 1 2 3 4
2.67517862194272 12.38547653
8.94014243219903 11.97583769
0.547090798274752 9.765968099
2.32441288353014 16.88842522
7.02553586582817 18.78355518 ME
1.81205460853106 15.82960947 MAE
3.0259443603553 14.74735728
1.1452510014301 17.67485431
2.8719098495563 19.82681943
2.10255428461554 9.366637372
10.5043917546844 9.406423769
2.32677573563933E-06 9.442831585
0.000408494527132 20.16883585
8.80326877238643 15.54379315
2.73503386296795 15.61665901
2.17916188210004 12.96672797
4.78610792140002 23.95979706
10.9656782980272 21.50655152
2.47844506755341 17.51224327
4.01756934551353 14.49986812
3.03391320744567 16.69943812
2.17957037662717 0.735219308
25

20

15
DEMANDA REAL Xt
Promedio Ponderadot
10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Promedio movil
-0.08
3.867143390165
DIAS DEMANDA REAL Xt pronostico t et=Xt-t ABS (et)
1 6 6
2 17 6
3 19 12.7701474075608
4 13 16.6044219873961 -3.60 3.60442198739609
5 13 14.3860157897847 -1.39 1.38601578978475
6 9 13.5329674983257 -4.53 4.5329674983257
7 20 10.7430713022032 9.26 9.25692869779676
8 18 16.4404141954181 1.56 1.55958580458186
9 21 17.4002892673962 3.60 3.59971073260382
10 15 19.6157958386968 -4.62 4.61579583869678
11 12 16.7749214540438 -4.77 4.77492145404379
12 18 13.8361103537346 4.16 4.16388964626539
13 19 16.3988509622831 2.60 2.60114903771695
14 18 17.9997748181357 0.00 0.000225181864344
15 21 17.9999134103552 3.00 3.00008658964479
16 11 19.8463705419317 -8.85 8.84637054193172
17 14 14.4017130336789 -0.40 0.401713033678881
18 11 14.1544715379021 -3.15 3.15447153790211
19 19 12.2129954193065 6.79 6.78700458069355
20 18 16.3901791890415 1.61 1.60982081095849
21 15 17.3809722972186 -2.38 2.38097229721861
22 15 15.9155601676287 -0.92 0.915560167628732
23 18 15.352062231689 2.65 2.64793776831105
24 19 16.9817830514629 2.02 2.01821694853711
25 8 18.2239308916478 -10.22 10.2239308916478
26 12 11.9314291442687 0.07 0.068570855731307
27 11 11.9736323080108 -0.97 0.973632308010833
28 20 11.374392831102 8.63 8.62560716889798
29 14 16.6831775595704 -2.68 2.68317755957042
30 18 15.0317677778476 2.97 2.96823222215239
31 12 16.8586195672879 -4.86 4.85861956728792
32 25 13.8682949611244 11.13 11.1317050388756
33 18 20.7195025984585 -2.72 2.71950259845851
34 16 19.0457359196577 -3.05 3.04573591965772
35 14 17.1711830886954 -3.17 3.1711830886954
36 17 15.2194215462561 1.78 1.78057845374386
37 16.3153105101264
38 6.2737598597917
39 2.41246176429826
40 0.92766887707977
41 0.35671841860373
42 0.137169666154709
43 0.052746133453502
44 0.020282579029949
45 0.007799301771926
 25
MAD
Alfa
20
0.61546795

15
0.847500461052404
12.9286226028761
10
15.6870430566067
20.0060545786998
15.8697925996625 5
11.4373953310898
15.8581781164585
0
18.6591329290336 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
21.1909591975164
21.6594447005427
12.9729187784975
12.7019877065439
9.65650113674622
16.5357237673743
18.2245886211338
15.9121211610094 Promedio movil
15.0565027258381 ME -0.01
17.7573302580822 MAE 3.76
19.8225603301153
9.64069381212188
9.7471226041421
8.80774271467837
19.8572834899373
14.7813108863215
15.6501807170739
12.9193544024306
24.0771210641137
21.3815951586382
18.3579915709648
15.2073013822548
17.0069089574137
0.709315215501385
 DEMANDA REAL Xt
pronostico t

8 9 10 11 12

Utilizando solver
DIAS DEMANDA REAL Xt At AT" at MAD
1 6 6 6 6
2 17 7.81 6.30 9.32
3 19 9.65 6.85 12.45
4 13 10.20 7.40 13.00
5 13 10.66 7.94 13.38 6.146306577
6 9 10.39 8.34 12.44 16.09178172
7 20 11.97 8.94 15.00 22.02061504
8 18 12.96 9.60 16.32 29.27210761
9 21 14.28 10.37 18.20 30.22779924
10 15 14.40 11.03 17.77 28.47651157
11 12 14.01 11.52 16.49 32.00493623
12 18 14.66 12.04 17.29 35.77780158
13 19 15.38 12.59 18.17 38.0143867
14 18 15.81 13.11 18.50 42.31042121
15 21 16.66 13.70 19.62 37.69895455
16 11 15.73 14.03 17.43 36.35038153
17 14 15.45 14.26 16.63 32.71657552
18 11 14.71 14.34 15.09 36.36574118
19 19 15.42 14.52 16.32 38.58080894
20 18 15.84 14.73 16.95 37.92675462
21 15 15.70 14.89 16.52 37.38223975
22 15 15.59 15.01 16.17 39.43607568
23 18 15.99 15.17 16.80 41.98989435
24 19 16.48 15.38 17.58 34.93448043
25 8 15.09 15.34 14.84 32.38344032
26 12 14.58 15.21 13.95 29.41819684
27 11 13.99 15.01 12.97 34.70360827
28 20 14.98 15.01 14.95 33.64483115
29 14 14.82 14.97 14.66 25.67019435
30 18 15.34 15.03 15.65 33.53325402
31 12 14.79 14.99 14.59 42.08246554
32 25 16.47 15.24 17.70 43.37858863
33 18 16.72 15.48 17.96 42.79199647
34 16 16.60 15.67 17.54 40.63216901
35 14 16.18 15.75 16.60 41.3356139
36 17 16.31 15.84 16.78 27.71985634
37 13.63
38 11.39
39 9.52
40 7.95
41 6.64
42 5.55
43 4.64
44 3.88
45 3.24
46 2.71
47 2.26
 bt Tt" et=Xt-t promedio
0 25
0.30 6.00 11.00 11.00
0.55 9.62 9.38 10.19 20
0.55 13.00 0.00 6.79
0.54 13.55 0.55 5.23 15
0.40 13.92 4.92 5.17 DEM
0.60 12.84 7.16 5.50 10 At
0.66 15.60 2.40 5.06
0.77 16.98 4.02 4.93 5
0.66 18.97 3.97 4.82
0.49 18.43 6.43 4.98
0
0.52 16.98 1.02 4.62 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
0.55 17.80 1.20 4.34
0.53 18.71 0.71 4.06
0.58 19.03 1.97 3.91 Alfa
0.33 20.21 9.21 4.26 0.16441828226
0.23 17.76 3.76 4.23 p
0.07 16.86 5.86 4.33 1
0.18 15.16 3.84 4.30
0.22 16.50 1.50 4.15
0.16 17.17 2.17 3.42
0.11 16.68 1.68 3.94
0.16 16.28 1.72 3.84
0.22 16.96 2.04 3.76
-0.05 17.79 9.79 4.01
-0.12 14.79 2.79 3.96
-0.20 13.82 2.82 3.45
-0.01 12.77 7.23 4.04
-0.03 14.95 0.95 3.93
0.06 14.63 3.37 3.91
-0.04 15.71 3.71 3.91
0.24 14.55 10.45 4.12
0.24 17.95 0.05 4.08
0.18 18.21 2.21 3.94
0.08 17.72 3.72 4.28
0.09 16.68 0.32 3.83
16.87
 DEMANDA REAL Xt
At

8 9 10 11 12

Promedio movil
ME 3.83
MAE 4.69

Utilizando solver