Periodo DEMANDA REAL periodos t ventas At

(Unidades)
1 18023 1 A(1) 18023
2 10602 2 A(2) 10602
3 19022 3 A(3) 19022
4 11406 4 A(4) 11406
5 10850 5 A(5) 10850
6 19221 6 A(6) 19221
7 14306 7 A(7) 14306
8 18966 8 A(8) 18966
9 19762 9 A(9) 19762
10 13380 10 A(10) 13380
11 16182 11 A(11) 16182
12 12889 12 A(12) 12889
13 19891 13 A(13) 19891
14 13988 14 A(14) 13998
15 16759 15 A(15) 16759
16 13363 16 A(16) 13363
17 13167 17 A(17) 13167
18 12654 18 A(18) 12654

a 0.1052631579

pronostico año que comienza

periodo t F(t-1) A(t-1)-F(t-1) pronostico Ft
1 no existe
25000
2 18023
3 18023 -7421.00 17241.84
4 17241.84 1780.16 17429.23
5 17429.23 -6023.23 16795.20 20000
6 16795.20 -5945.20 16169.39
7 16169.39 3051.61 16490.61
8 16490.61 -2184.61 16260.65
9 16260.65 2705.35 16545.43 15000
10 16545.43 3216.57 16884.01
11 16884.01 -3504.01 16515.17
12 16515.17 -333.17 16480.10
10000
13 16480.10 -3591.10 16102.09
14 16102.09 3788.91 16500.92
15 16500.92 -2512.92 16236.40
5000
 10000

16 16236.40 522.60 16291.41 5000

17 16291.41 -2928.41 15983.16
18 15983.16 -2816.16 15686.72
19 15686.72 -3032.72 15367.49
0
0 1 2 3
 demanda real vs pronostico
25000

20000

15000

10000

5000
10000

5000

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

demanda rea l pronostico

14 15 16 17 18 19
 Periodo DEMANDA REAL tendencia periodos t ventas At
(Unidades)
1 18023 872 1 A(1)
2 10602 2 A(2)
3 19022 3 A(3)
4 11406 4 A(4)
5 10850 5 A(5)
6 19221 6 A(6)
7 14306 7 A(7)
8 18966 8 A(8)
9 19762 9 A(9)
10 13380 10 A(10)
11 16182 11 A(11)
12 12889 12 A(12)
13 19891 13 A(13)
14 13988 14 A(14)
15 16759 15 A(15)
16 13363 16 A(16)
17 13167 17 A(17)
18 12654 18 A(18)

a 0.1052631579
b 0.2105263158

pronostico año que comienza

periodo t prom.suavisado prom.tendencia pronostico
1 18023 18023 872
2 10602 18022.05 0.05 18022.11 25000
3 19022 18127.36 106.30 18233.66
4 11406 17514.96 -611.40 16903.56
20000
5 10850 16266.35 -1247.61 15018.73
6 19221 15461.08 -804.27 14656.81
7 14306 14619.88 -139.81 14480.07 15000
8 18966 14952.27 333.39 15285.66
9 19762 15756.86 805.59 16562.44
10 13380 16227.45 471.59 16699.04 10000
11 16182 16644.61 418.17 17062.78
12 12889 16623.44 -20.18 16603.26
5000
13 19891 16949.33 326.90 17276.23
14 13988 16930.10 -18.23 16911.87
15 16759 16895.78 -33.32 16862.46 0
1 2 3
16 13363 16494.09 -400.69 16093.41
17 13167 15785.36 -707.73 15077.63
18 12654 14822.52 -961.85 13860.67
19 12401.65 -2419.87 9981.78
ventas At

18023
10602
19022
11406
10850
19221
14306
18966
19762
13380
16182
12889
19891
13988
16759
13363
13167
12654

demanda real vs pronostico

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19