METODO DE GUMBELL

DATOS.

 Nº de datos: 50
 Tiempo de retorno: 35 años

m AÑO Qi (m^3/s) Qi^2

1 1960 12250 150062500
2 1961 21240 451137600
3 1962 16980 288320400
4 1963 22150 490622500
5 1964 18180 330512400
6 1965 18080 326886400
7 1966 10470 109620900
8 1967 29520 871430400
9 1968 8248 68029504
10 1969 13730 188512900
11 1970 18230 332332900
12 1971 15910 253128100
13 1972 33470 1120240900
14 1973 25220 636048400
15 1974 20250 410062500
16 1975 13640 186049600
17 1976 15400 237160000
18 1977 15290 233784100
19 1978 10030 100600900
20 1979 11290 127464100
21 1980 9479 89851441
22 1981 19370 375196900
23 1982 14520 210830400
24 1983 17860 318979600
25 1984 17960 322561600
26 1985 12460 155251600
27 1986 18440 340033600
28 1987 14850 220522500
29 1988 13130 172396900
30 1989 18280 334158400
31 1990 7165 51337225
32 1991 10020 100400400
33 1992 5184 26873856
34 1993 13400 179560000
35 1994 16760 280897600
36 1995 8571 73462041
37 1996 14570 212284900
38 1997 12270 150552900
39 1998 23540 554131600
40 1999 16640 276889600
41 2000 17680 312582400
42 2001 24420 596336400
43 2002 16570 274564900
 44 2003 20660 426835600
45 2004 11240 126337600
46 2005 13280 176358400
47 2006 16810 282576100
48 2007 19650 386122500
49 2008 14300 204490000
50 2009 23560 555073600
TOTAL 812217 14699457567

1. CALCULO DEL CAUDAL MEDIO.

∑ 𝑄𝑖
𝑄𝑚 =
𝑁

812217
𝑄𝑚 =
50
𝑄𝑚 = 16244.34

2. CALCULO DE LA DESVIACION ESTANDAR DEL CAUDAL.

∑ 𝑄𝑖2 − 𝑁𝑄𝑚
2
𝜎𝑄 = √
𝑁−1

𝜎𝑄 = 5487.31

3. OBTENCION DEL ӯ𝒏 y 𝜎𝑁 .

Entonces tenemos que:

 ӯ𝒏 = 0.54854
 𝜎𝑁 = 1.16066

4. CALCULO DEL CAUDAL MAXIMO.

𝜎𝑄
𝑄𝑚𝑎𝑥 = 𝑄𝑚 − (ӯ − 𝑙𝑛(𝑇))
𝜎𝑁

𝑄𝑚𝑎𝑥 = 30459.78 𝑚3 ⁄𝑠
5. CALCULO DE ∅ Y ∆𝑄
1 1.14 𝑥 𝜎𝑄
∅=1− ∆𝑄 = ±
𝑇 𝜎𝑁
1
∅=1− ∆𝑄 = ±5389.634
35
∅ = 0.971
 6. CALCULO DELCAUDAL DE DISEÑO.
𝑄𝑑 = 𝑄𝑚𝑎𝑥 ± ∆𝑄

𝑄𝑑 = 30459.78 + 5389.63 = 35849.41 𝑚3 ⁄𝑠

𝑄𝑑 = 30459.78 − 5389.63 = 25070.14 𝑚3 ⁄𝑠

METODO DE NASH
DATOS.

 Nº de datos: 50
 Tiempo de retorno: 35 años

m AÑO Qi (m^3/s) T Xi Xi x Qi Xi^2

1 1972 33470 51.00 -2.07 -69132.05 4.27
2 1967 29520 25.50 -1.76 -51958.09 3.10
3 1973 25220 17.00 -1.58 -39836.67 2.50
4 2001 24420 12.75 -1.45 -35411.70 2.10
5 2009 23560 10.20 -1.35 -31773.07 1.82
6 1998 23540 8.50 -1.26 -29771.96 1.60
7 1963 22150 7.29 -1.19 -26425.47 1.42
8 1961 21240 6.38 -1.13 -24004.85 1.28
9 2003 20660 5.67 -1.07 -22190.18 1.15
10 1974 20250 5.10 -1.02 -20720.90 1.05
11 2007 19650 4.64 -0.98 -19192.27 0.95
12 1981 19370 4.25 -0.93 -18084.86 0.87
13 1986 18440 3.92 -0.89 -16476.41 0.80
14 1989 18280 3.64 -0.86 -15644.67 0.73
15 1970 18230 3.40 -0.82 -14953.23 0.67
16 1964 18180 3.19 -0.79 -14298.14 0.62
17 1965 18080 3.00 -0.75 -13637.06 0.57
18 1984 17960 2.83 -0.72 -12992.43 0.52
19 1983 17860 2.68 -0.69 -12390.31 0.48
20 2000 17680 2.55 -0.67 -11759.45 0.44
21 1962 16980 2.43 -0.64 -10823.48 0.41
22 2006 16810 2.32 -0.61 -10262.99 0.37
23 1994 16760 2.22 -0.58 -9793.52 0.34
24 1999 16640 2.13 -0.56 -9297.87 0.31
25 2002 16570 2.04 -0.53 -8843.91 0.28
26 1971 15910 1.96 -0.51 -8100.68 0.26
27 1976 15400 1.89 -0.48 -7468.63 0.24
28 1977 15290 1.82 -0.46 -7050.55 0.21
29 1987 14850 1.76 -0.44 -6497.35 0.19
30 1996 14570 1.70 -0.41 -6034.07 0.17
31 1982 14520 1.65 -0.39 -5675.82 0.15
32 2008 14300 1.59 -0.37 -5258.52 0.14
33 1969 13730 1.55 -0.34 -4731.02 0.12
34 1975 13640 1.50 -0.32 -4383.50 0.10
35 1993 13400 1.46 -0.30 -3993.78 0.09
 36 2005 13280 1.42 -0.27 -3645.55 0.08
37 1988 13130 1.38 -0.25 -3291.63 0.06
38 1985 12460 1.34 -0.23 -2822.02 0.05
39 1997 12270 1.31 -0.20 -2475.74 0.04
40 1960 12250 1.28 -0.18 -2161.02 0.03
41 1979 11290 1.24 -0.15 -1696.10 0.02
42 2004 11240 1.21 -0.12 -1382.70 0.02
43 1966 10470 1.19 -0.09 -989.25 0.01
44 1978 10030 1.16 -0.06 -644.48 0.00
45 1991 10020 1.13 -0.03 -318.52 0.00
46 1980 9479 1.11 0.00 35.25 0.00
47 1995 8571 1.09 0.04 373.38 0.00
48 1968 8248 1.06 0.09 742.84 0.01
49 1990 7165 1.04 0.15 1061.51 0.02
50 1992 5184 1.02 0.23 1204.65 0.05
TOTAL 812217 -30.02 -624878.83 30.73

1. CALCULO DE “b”
∑ 𝑋𝑖 𝑄𝑖 − 𝑁𝑋𝑚 𝑄𝑚
𝑏=
∑ 𝑋𝑖2 − 𝑁𝑋𝑚2

𝑏 = −10798.56

2. CALCULO DE “a”
𝑎 = 𝑄𝑚 − 𝑏𝑋𝑚
𝑎 = 9760.40

3. CALCULO DEL CAUDAL MAXIMO.

𝑇
𝑄𝒎𝒂𝒙 = 𝑎 + 𝑏𝑥𝐿𝑂𝐺 (𝐿𝑂𝐺 ( ))
𝑇−1
35
𝑄𝒎𝒂𝒙 = 9760.40 + (−10798.56)𝑥𝐿𝑂𝐺 (𝐿𝑂𝐺 ( ))
35 − 1
𝑄𝒎𝒂𝒙 = 30277.72 𝑚3 ⁄𝑠

4. CALCULO DEL Sxx.

2
𝑆𝑋𝑋 = 𝑁𝑥 ∑ 𝑋𝑖2 − (∑ 𝑋𝑖 )

𝑆𝑋𝑋 = 635.21
5. CALCULO DEL Sqq.
2
𝑆𝑞𝑞 = 𝑁𝑥 ∑ 𝑄𝑖2 − (∑ 𝑄𝑖 )

𝑆𝑞𝑞 = 7527642361
6. CALCULO DEL Sxq.
𝑆𝑥𝑞 = 𝑁𝑥 ∑ 𝑋𝑖 𝑄𝑖 − (∑ 𝑄𝑖 ) (∑ 𝑋𝑖 )

𝑆𝑥𝑞 = −6859385.67
7. CALCULO DEL X.
𝑇
𝑋 = 𝐿𝑂𝐺 (𝐿𝑂𝐺 ( ))
𝑇−1

𝑋 = −1.90
8. CALCULO DE ∆𝑸.
2
𝑆𝑥𝑞
𝑆𝑞𝑞 2 1 1
∆𝑄 = ±2√ 2 + (𝑋 − 𝑋𝑖𝑚 ) (𝑆𝑞𝑞 − )
𝑁 (𝑁 − 1) 𝑁 − 2 𝑆𝑥𝑥 𝑆𝑥𝑥

∆𝑄 = ±1650.75
9. CALCULO DELCAUDAL DE DISEÑO.
𝑄𝑑 = 𝑄𝑚𝑎𝑥 ± ∆𝑄

𝑄𝑑 = 30277.72 + 1650.75 = 31928.47 𝑚3 ⁄𝑠

𝑄𝑑 = 30277.72 − 1650.75 = 28626.98 𝑚3 ⁄𝑠
 METODO DE LEBEDIEV
DATOS.

 Nº de datos: 50
 Tiempo de retorno: 35 años

m AÑO Qi (m^3/s) (Qi/Qm)-1 (Qi/Qm-1)^2 (Qi/Qm-1)^3

1 1960 12250 -0.246 0.060 -0.015
2 1961 21240 0.308 0.095 0.029
3 1962 16980 0.045 0.002 0.000
4 1963 22150 0.364 0.132 0.048
5 1964 18180 0.119 0.014 0.002
6 1965 18080 0.113 0.013 0.001
7 1966 10470 -0.355 0.126 -0.045
8 1967 29520 0.817 0.668 0.546
9 1968 8248 -0.492 0.242 -0.119
10 1969 13730 -0.155 0.024 -0.004
11 1970 18230 0.122 0.015 0.002
12 1971 15910 -0.021 0.000 0.000
13 1972 33470 1.060 1.124 1.192
14 1973 25220 0.553 0.305 0.169
15 1974 20250 0.247 0.061 0.015
16 1975 13640 -0.160 0.026 -0.004
17 1976 15400 -0.052 0.003 0.000
18 1977 15290 -0.059 0.003 0.000
19 1978 10030 -0.383 0.146 -0.056
20 1979 11290 -0.305 0.093 -0.028
21 1980 9479 -0.416 0.173 -0.072
22 1981 19370 0.192 0.037 0.007
23 1982 14520 -0.106 0.011 -0.001
24 1983 17860 0.099 0.010 0.001
25 1984 17960 0.106 0.011 0.001
26 1985 12460 -0.233 0.054 -0.013
27 1986 18440 0.135 0.018 0.002
28 1987 14850 -0.086 0.007 -0.001
29 1988 13130 -0.192 0.037 -0.007
30 1989 18280 0.125 0.016 0.002
31 1990 7165 -0.559 0.312 -0.175
32 1991 10020 -0.383 0.147 -0.056
33 1992 5184 -0.681 0.464 -0.316
34 1993 13400 -0.175 0.031 -0.005
35 1994 16760 0.032 0.001 0.000
36 1995 8571 -0.472 0.223 -0.105
37 1996 14570 -0.103 0.011 -0.001
38 1997 12270 -0.245 0.060 -0.015
39 1998 23540 0.449 0.202 0.091
40 1999 16640 0.024 0.001 0.000
41 2000 17680 0.088 0.008 0.001
42 2001 24420 0.503 0.253 0.127
43 2002 16570 0.020 0.000 0.000
 44 2003 20660 0.272 0.074 0.020
45 2004 11240 -0.308 0.095 -0.029
46 2005 13280 -0.182 0.033 -0.006
47 2006 16810 0.035 0.001 0.000
48 2007 19650 0.210 0.044 0.009
49 2008 14300 -0.120 0.014 -0.002
50 2009 23560 0.450 0.203 0.091
TOTAL 5.705 1.282

1. CALCULO DEL Cv.

2
𝑄𝑖
∑ (
√ 𝑄𝑚 − 1)
𝐶𝑣 =
𝑁

𝐶𝑣 = 0.34
2. CALCULO DE Cs.
𝑄 3
∑( 𝑖 −1)
𝑄𝑚
𝐶𝑠 = ; 𝐶𝑠 = 3𝐶𝑣
𝑁𝐶𝑣3

𝐶𝑠 = 0.67 𝐶𝑠 = 1.01

Por lo tanto se escoge el mayor valor:

𝐶𝑠 = 1.01

3. CALCULO DEL P Y OBTENCION DEL K.

1
𝑃= 𝑥100
𝑇
1
𝑃= 𝑥100 = 3%
35
 Procedemos a interpolar para hallar el valor “K” a 1.01:

1.00 2.25
1.01 x
1.05 2.26

x =2.252

Por lo tanto, tenemos que:

𝐾 = 2.252
4. CALCULO DEL CAUDAL MAXIMO.
𝑄𝑚𝑎𝑥 = 𝑄𝑚 (𝐾𝐶𝑣 + 1)

𝑄𝑚𝑎𝑥 = 28601.76 𝑚3 ⁄𝑠
5. OBTENCION DEL Er.

Por lo tanto, tenemos que:

𝐸𝑟 = 0.45
6. OBTENCION DEL “A”.
0.7 < 𝐴 < 1.5
𝑂, 𝑁 > 40 → 𝐴 = 0.7
Por lo tanto, tenemos que:

𝐴 = 0.7
7. CALCULO ∆𝑸.
𝐴𝐸𝑟𝑄𝑚𝑎𝑥
∆𝑄 = ±
√𝑁

∆𝑄 = 1274.14

8. CALCULO DELCAUDAL DE DISEÑO.

𝑄𝑑 = 𝑄𝑚𝑎𝑥 ± ∆𝑄

𝑄𝑑 = 28601.76 + 1274.14 = 29875.91 𝑚3 ⁄𝑠

𝑄𝑑 = 28601.76 − 1274.14 = 27327.62 𝑚3 ⁄𝑠

RESULTADOS
METODO DE GUMBELL
𝑄𝑑 = 35849.41 𝑚3 ⁄𝑠
𝑄𝑑 = 25070.14 𝑚3 ⁄𝑠
METODO DE NASH
𝑄𝑑 = 31928.47 𝑚3 ⁄𝑠
𝑄𝑑 = 28626.98 𝑚3 ⁄𝑠
METODO DE LEBEDIEV
𝑄𝑑 = 29875.91 𝑚3 ⁄𝑠
𝑄𝑑 = 27327.62 𝑚3 ⁄𝑠