1)

Demanda Desestaciona
Semestre Y suma trimestFE Y X XY X2
I 16.7 17.30 0.92 18.15 1 18.15 1
II 19.7 20.20 1.08 18.24 2 36.48 4
I 16.7 0.92 18.15 3 54.45 9
II 20.8 1.08 19.26 4 77.04 16
I 18.5 0.92 20.11 5 100.55 25
II 20.1 1.08 18.61 6 111.66 36
18.75 112.52 21 398.33 91
18.75 3.5

a) Demanda FE Demanda Desestaciona

I 18.09 0.92 19.66 7 b 0.26
II 21.51 1.08 19.92 8 a 17.84

Con Funcione 18.08 0.92 19.66 7

21.51 1.08 19.91 8

b) 0.8
16.7 5 0.8 0.01 0.01 16.70
19.7 4 0.8 0.03 0.02 16.70
16.7 3 0.8 0.13 0.1 19.10
20.8 2 0.8 0.83 0.66 17.18
18.5 1 0.8 3.70 2.96 20.08
20.1 0 0.8 20.1 16.08 18.82
19.83 19.84

2) 0.8 P. Cu
0.89 5 0.8 0 0 0.89 Mes US$/lib
0.94 4 0.8 0 0 0.89 1 0.97
0.99 3 0.8 0.01 0.01 0.93 2 0.92
0.95 2 0.8 0.04 0.03 0.98 3 0.96
0.92 1 0.8 0.18 0.14 0.96 4 0.93
0.97 0 0.8 0.97 0.78 0.93 5 0.97
0.96 0.96
3)
Trimestre Año 1 Año 2 Año 3 Año 4 Promedio F.E.
1 8.6 8.8 9.2 10.3 9.75 1.09704641 1.097
2 5.0 5.2 5.4 6.4 5.90 0.66385373 0.664
3 3.8 4.0 4.3 5.4 4.85 0.54571027 0.546
4 13.7 13.9 14.1 16.0 15.05 1.69338959 1.693
33.0 38.1 8.8875 4 4
8.8875
 Demanda FE
1 9.2 1.09704641 8.39
2 5.4 0.66385373 8.13
3 4.3 0.54571027 7.88
4 14.1 1.69338959 8.33
5 10.3 1.09704641 9.39
6 6.4 0.66385373 9.64
7 5.4 0.54571027 9.90
8 16.0 1.69338959 9.45
9 11.08 1.09704641 10.10
10 6.88 0.66385373 10.37
11 5.80 0.54571027 10.64
12 18.47 1.69338959 10.90

a 0.82
b 0.04
0.25771429
17.8513333

P. Cu P. Cu
Mes US$/lib Mes US$/lib
6 0.95 11 0.94
7 0.94 12 0.99
8 0.98 13 0.95
9 0.91 14 0.92
10 0.89 15 0.97
4)

a) Fe Accidentes
1 42 0.731 57.456 1
2 58 1.039 55.823 2 1
3 74 1.372 53.936 3 Año 1 42
4 44 0.715 61.538 4 Año 2 48
1 48 0.731 65.663 5
2 70 1.039 67.372 6
3 95 1.372 69.242 7 100
4 51.19543 0.715 71.602 8 90
80
70
0.89932383 C.c 60
50
40
b)
30
0.8 20
42 6 0.8 0 0 42.00 10
58 5 0.8 0.02 0.02 42.00 0
1 2 3 4 5
74 4 0.8 0.12 0.1 54.80
44 3 0.8 0.35 0.28 70.16
48 2 0.8 1.92 1.54 49.23
70 1 0.8 14 11.2 48.25
95 0 0.8 95 76 65.65
89.14 89.13
89.1293184

5)
186.875
Trim Ventas Descomp
1 160 1.00 159.47
2 195 1.16 167.54
3 150 0.95 157.92
4 140 0.88 158.56
5 215 1.00 214.28
6 240 1.16 206.21
7 205 0.95 215.83
8 190 0.88 215.19
9 232.22 231.45
10 280.91 241.35
11 238.66 251.26
12 230.59 261.17

a 142.30
b 9.91
y 231.45
6) a).
y x Log y X logy x2 Pronostico
Enero 1 350 1 2.54 2.54 1 350
Febrero 2 300 2 2.48 4.96 4 300
Marzo 3 280 3 2.45 7.35 9 280
Abril 4 300 4 2.48 9.92 16 300
Mayo 5 330 5 2.52 12.60 25 330
Junio 6 350 6 2.54 15.24 36 350
Julio 7 345 21 15.01 52.61 91 331.13
Agosto 8 334.41
Log b 0.0043 b 1.01019226
Log a 2.49 a 306.145326

400 400

350 350

300 300

250 250

200 200

150 150

100 100

50 50

0 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
 Accidentes

2 3 4
58 74 44
70 95

100
90
80
70
60
50 Colum
nB
40
30
20
10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
 b).
0.8
0.0896 5 350
0.384 4 350
1.792 3 310
9.6 2 286
52.8 1 297.2
280 0 323.44
344.6656 344.688

328.66684 1.01019226

3 4 5 6 7 8
7)
Trimestre Ventas Ventas 0.8
1 140 0.82 170.73 140.00 140 5 0.8
2 215 1.2 179.17 140.00 215 4 0.8
3 190 1.04 182.69 200.00 190 3 0.8
4 170 0.93 182.8 192.00 170 2 0.8
5 160 0.82 195.12 174.40 160 1 0.8
6 225 1.2 187.5 162.88 225 0 0.8
7 204 1.04 196.182667 212.58 0 0.8
8 186 0.93 199.948667
a) a 169.82
b 3.766
Promedio F.E.
Prome I 150 0.82 0.82
Prome II 220 1.20 1.2
Prome III 190 1.04 1.04
Prom IV 170 0.93 0.93
Prom Gen 183.33 3.98 3.99

b) 212.58

8)
FE X Y
Primavera 150 0.6300 1 238.10
Verano 350 1.3000 2 269.23
Otoño 200 0.9000 3 222.22
Invierno 300 1.1700 4 256.41
Primavera 165 0.6300 5 261.90
Verano 300 1.3000 6 230.77
Otoño 250 0.9000 7 277.78
Invierno 285 1.1700 8 243.59
Primavera 161.29 0.6300 9 256.02
Verano 334.56 1.3000 10 257.35
Otoño 232.82 0.9000 11 258.69
Invierno 304.23 1.1700 12 260.03

FE
Prom (Prim) 158 0.6300
Prom (Vera) 325 1.3000
Prom (Oto) 225 0.9000
Prom (Inv) 293 1.1700
Prom (Gene) 250

400

350

300

250

200
 400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1 2 3
Primavera 150 165 180
Verano 350 300 250
Otoño 200 250 300
Invierno 300 285 270

9)
FE X Y
Primavera 124 1.5285 1 81.13
Verano 52 0.6969 2 74.62
Otoño 65 0.7154 3 90.85
Invierno 82 1.0592 4 77.41
Primavera 205 1.5285 5 134.12
Verano 98 0.6969 6 140.63
Otoño 89 0.7154 7 124.40
Invierno 146 1.0592 8 137.84
Primavera 234.26 1.5285 9 153.26
Verano 113.87 0.6969 10 163.41
Otoño 124.16 0.7154 11 173.55
Invierno 194.57 1.0592 12 183.69

FE
Prom (Prim) 165 1.5285
Prom (Vera) 75 0.6969
Prom (Oto) 77 0.7154
Prom (Inv) 114 1.0592
Prom (Gene) 108

250

200

150

100

50

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
 200

150

100

50

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1 2 3
Primavera 82 146 210
Verano 124 205 286
Otoño 52 98 144
Invierno 65 89 113
0.0448 0.04
0.344 0.28
1.52 1.22
6.8 5.44
32 25.6
225 180
0 0
212.580
10)
Ventas
Años Trim(I) Trim(II) Trim(III) Trim(IV)
2007 520 730 820 530
2008 590 810 900 600
2009 650 900
Totales 1760 2440 1720 1130 7050
Promedio 586.67 813.33 860 565 705
Factor Estac 0.832 1.154 1.22 0.801
FE Y X
2007 1 520 0.8321513 624.886364 1
2 730 1.1536643 632.766393 2
3 820 1.21985816 672.209302 3
4 530 0.80141844 661.327434 4
2008 1 590 0.8321513 709.005682 5
2 810 1.1536643 702.110656 6
3 900 1.21985816 737.790698 7
4 600 0.80141844 748.672566 8
2009 1 650 0.8321513 781.107955 9
2 900 1.1536643 780.122951 10
3 984 1.21985816 806.344377 11
4 661 0.80141844 824.770627 12
1 702 0.8321513 843.196877 13
2 994 1.1536643 861.623128 14

Promedio I 586.666667 0.8321513

Promedio II 813.333333 1.1536643
Promedio III 860 1.21985816
Promedio IV 565 0.80141844
Promedio Gen 705 4.0070922
Suavizamiento Exponencial con Tendencia
0.8 0.4
Periodo Xt 3000
Et Tt Ft+1 MAD
1 1132 1132 0
2 1600 2500
1506.4 149.76 1132 468
3 1690 1683.23 160.59 1656.16 33.84
4 1640 1680.76 95.37 1843.82 203.82 2000
5 1765 1767.23 91.80 1776.13 11.13
6 1879 1875.01 98.19 1859.03 19.97 1500
7 1990 1986.64 103.57 1973.20 16.80
8 2100 2098.04 106.70 2090.21 9.79 1000
9 2210 2208.95 108.38 2204.75 5.25
10 2356 2348.27 120.76 2317.33 38.67 500
11 2201 2254.60 34.99 2469.02 268.02
12 2027 2079.52 -49.04 2289.59 262.59 0
13 2068 2060.50 -37.03 2030.48 37.52 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
14 2023.46 114.62

Suavizamiento Exponencial con Estacionalidad

0.8 0.4 0.3
Periodo Xt Et Tt St Ft+1 MAD 3000
1 1132 1132 0 1
2 1600 1506.4 149.76 1.01864047 1132 468 2500
3 1690 1658.49127 150.692507 1.01874786 1687.0316 2.97
4 1640 1649.69223 86.8958873 1.01136095 1843.10209 203.10 2000
5 1765 1743.45616 89.6431083 1.01165975 1756.3174 8.68
6 1879 1852.49492 97.4013654 1.01245416 1854.47276 24.53 1500
7 1990 1962.39612 102.401302 1.01293784 1974.1806 15.82
8 2100 2071.50154 105.082947 1.0131837 2091.51144 8.49 1000
9 2210 2180.31141 106.573715 1.0133136 2205.27993 4.72
10 2356 2317.41325 118.784968 1.01431475 2317.33179 38.67 500
11 2201 2223.18995 33.5816581 1.00702599 2471.0718 270.07
12 2027 2061.64047 -44.470796 0.99987748 2272.62765 245.63
0
13 2068 2058.03666 -28.124001 1.00136659 2016.92252 51.08 1 2 3 4 5 6
14 2032.68672 111.81
000

500

000

500 Column B
Column E
000

500

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

3000

2500

2000

1500 Column B
Column F
1000

500

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Suavizamiento Exponencial con Tendencia
0.6 0.4
Periodo Xt Et Tt Ft+1 MAD
1 121.65 121.65 0
2 164.35 147.27 10.25 121.65 42.7
1600
3 182.27 172.37 16.19 157.52 24.75
4 197.76 194.08 18.40 188.56 9.20 1400
5 173.64 189.17 9.08 212.48 38.84
1200
6 222.25 212.65 14.84 198.25 24.00
7 261 247.59 22.88 227.49 33.51 1000
8 286.89 280.32 26.82 270.47 16.42
800
9 253.21 274.78 13.88 307.14 53.93
10 211.87 242.59 -4.55 288.66 76.79 600
11 253.39 247.25 -0.87 238.03 15.36
400
12 308.14 283.44 13.95 246.38 61.76
13 347.58 327.50 26.00 297.39 50.19 200
14 384.38 372.03 33.41 353.50 30.88
0
15 410.56 408.51 34.64 405.44 5.12
16 479.94 465.22 43.47 443.15 36.79
17 543.97 529.86 51.93 508.69 35.28
18 603.19 594.63 57.07 581.79 21.40
19 548.36 589.70 32.27 651.70 103.34
20 544.95 575.76 13.78 621.96 77.01
21 582.23 585.15 12.03 589.54 7.31
22 608.55 604.00 14.76 597.18 11.37
23 606.88 611.63 11.91 618.76 11.88
24 681.57 658.36 25.83 623.54 58.03
25 866.66 793.67 69.63 684.19 182.47
26 841.91 850.47 64.49 863.30 21.39
27 735.87 807.51 21.51 914.96 179.09
28 738.45 774.68 -0.22 829.02 90.57
29 558.46 644.86 -52.06 774.45 215.99
30 666.22 636.85 -34.44 592.79 73.43
31 867.72 761.60 29.23 602.41 265.31
32 1005.82 919.82 80.83 790.83 214.99
33 1028.04 1017.09 87.40 1000.66 27.38
34 723.37 875.82 -4.06 1104.49 381.12
35 591.83 703.80 -71.25 871.75 279.92
36 540.6 577.38 -93.32 632.55 91.95
37 650.72 584.06 -53.32 484.07 166.65
38 747.35 660.71 -1.33 530.74 216.61
39 680.38 671.98 3.71 659.37 21.01
40 508.36 575.29 -36.45 675.69 167.33
41 568.72 556.77 -29.28 538.84 29.88
42 682.8 620.68 8.00 527.49 155.31
 43 776.15 717.16 43.39 628.67 147.48
44 786.01 775.83 49.50 760.55 25.46
45 974.18 914.64 85.23 825.33 148.85
46 1216.16 1129.64 137.14 999.86 216.30
47 1222.97 1240.49 126.62 1266.78 43.81
48 1347.59 1355.40 121.94 1367.12 19.53
49 1350.55 1401.26 91.51 1477.34 126.79
50 1492.77 90.72

Suavizamiento Exponencial con Estacionalidad

0.6 0.4 0.3
Periodo Xt Et Tt St Ft+1 MAD 1600
1 121.65 121.65 0 1 1400
2 164.35 147.27 10.248 1.03479324 121.65 42.7
3 182.27 168.692081 14.7176324 1.04850208 162.998561 19.27 1200
4 197.76 186.531043 15.9661643 1.05201111 192.305465 5.45 1000
5 173.64 180.032057 6.98010429 1.02575625 213.029313 39.39
6 222.25 204.80651 14.0978437 1.04358055 191.828893 30.42 800
7 261 237.622032 21.5849149 1.06002128 228.444326 32.56 600
8 286.89 266.070084 24.3301699 1.06548982 274.76488 12.13
9 253.21 258.748043 11.6692854 1.03942191 309.418515 56.21 400
10 211.87 230.467606 -4.3106037 1.00338681 281.077695 69.21 200
11 253.39 241.983629 2.02004719 1.01651185 226.922952 26.47
12 308.14 279.482282 16.2114894 0
1.04231987 248.032628 60.11
13 347.58 318.358123 25.27723 1.05716071 308.207493 39.37
14 384.38 355.612079 30.0679205 1.06428157 363.277793 21.10
15 410.56 385.729545 30.0877388 1.06430891 410.472116 0.09
16 479.94 436.891218 38.5173123 1.07457654 442.558041 37.38
17 543.97 493.894221 45.9115885 1.08262048 510.862852 33.11
18 603.19 550.216757 50.0759676 1.08671745 584.404824 18.79
19 548.36 542.878401 27.1102382 1.0637314 652.348579 103.99
20 544.95 535.375683 13.2650558 1.04997699 606.314814 61.36
21 582.23 552.166444 14.6753379 1.05131786 576.060151 6.17
22 608.55 574.043665 17.5560909 1.0539558 595.930887 12.62
23 606.88 582.126877 13.7669395 1.05052562 623.519992 16.64
24 681.57 627.631232 26.4619055 1.06115 626.00172 55.57
25 866.66 751.667882 65.4918034 1.08869978 694.090933 172.57
26 841.91 790.854046 54.9695476 1.08145725 889.641573 47.73
27 735.87 746.595229 15.2782019 1.05271042 914.722056 178.85
28 738.45 725.634349 0.78256923 1.04219568 802.032098 63.58
29 558.46 612.076446 -44.95362 1.00325769 757.068578 198.61
30 666.22 625.283156 -21.689488 1.02192117 568.970337 97.25
31 867.72 750.901421 37.2336134 1.06201616 616.825148 250.89
32 1005.82 883.505256 75.3817019 1.08494408 837.01214 168.81
33 1028.04 952.085466 72.6611051 1.08339396 1040.33873 12.30
34 723.37 810.511901 -13.032763 1.02612138 1110.20425 386.83
35 591.83 665.050131 -66.004366 0.98525582 818.310392 226.48
36 540.6 568.832297 -78.089753 0.97478947 590.213324 49.61
37 650.72 596.826582 -35.656138 1.00944261 478.370662 172.35
38 747.35 668.683623 7.34913351 1.04190292 566.469361 180.88
39 680.38 662.223118 1.82527809 1.03755747 704.360505 23.98
40 508.36 559.5944 -39.95632 0.99882333 688.988372 180.63
41 568.72 549.489221 -28.015864 1.0096756 519.026639 49.69
42 682.8 614.343429 9.13216484 1.04020206 526.518925 156.28
43 776.15 697.082103 38.5747686 1.06216953 648.540596 127.61
44 786.01 738.265319 39.6181477 1.0629201 781.39231 4.62
45 974.18 861.061136 72.8892154 1.08345551 826.827972 147.35
46 1216.16 1047.06972 118.136964 1.10686557 1011.89365 204.27
47 1222.97 1129.01955 103.662109 1.09977015 1289.72716 66.76
48 1347.59 1228.27538 101.899596 1.0989811 1355.6665 8.08
49 1350.55 1269.41661 77.5962516 1.08846094 1461.83715 111.29
50 1466.17089 85.15
 Suavizamiento Exponencial Doble
0.6
Xt Ft (simple) Ftd(doble)
121.65 121.65 121.65
164.35 121.65 121.65
182.27 147.27 154.10
197.76 168.27 173.87
173.64 185.96 190.68
222.25 178.57 176.60
261 204.78 211.77
286.89 238.51 247.51
Column B 253.21 267.54 275.28
Column E 211.87 258.94 256.65
253.39 230.70 223.17
308.14 244.31 247.94
347.58 282.61 292.82
384.38 321.59 331.99
410.56 359.26 369.31
479.94 390.04 398.25
543.97 443.98 458.36
603.19 503.97 519.97
548.36 563.50 579.38
544.95 554.42 551.99
582.23 548.74 547.22
608.55 568.83 574.19
606.88 592.66 599.02
681.57 601.19 603.47
866.66 649.42 662.28
841.91 779.76 814.52
735.87 817.05 826.99
738.45 768.34 755.35
558.46 750.41 745.62
666.22 635.24 604.53
867.72 653.83 658.78
1005.82 782.16 816.39
1028.04 916.36 952.14
723.37 983.37 1001.24
591.83 827.37 785.77
540.6 686.05 648.36
650.72 598.78 575.51
747.35 629.94 638.25
680.38 700.39 719.17
508.36 688.38 685.18
568.72 580.37 551.57
682.8 573.38 571.52
 776.15 639.03 656.54
786.01 721.30 743.24
974.18 760.13 770.48
1216.16 888.56 922.81
1222.97 1085.12 1137.54
1347.59 1167.83 1189.89
1350.55 1275.69 1304.45
1320.60 1332.58

1600

1400

1200

1000

800
Column B
600 Column F

400

200

0
1) Ft = Ft-1 + α(Dt-1-Ft-1)
2) Dt = αFt + (1-α)Dt-1

1600

1400

1200

1000

800 Column N
Column O
600 Column P
400

200