T34496

Virginia Ruiz
Villanueva
Nuevas Metodologías en la Evaluación de la Peligrosidad Nuevas Metodologías en la Evaluación de la Peligrosidad
y el Riesgo por Avenidas en Cuencas de Montaña y el Riesgo por Avenidas en Cuencas de Montaña
New Methods in the Flash Flood Hazard and Risk Analysis in Mountain Basins New Methods in the Flash Flood Hazard and Risk Analysis in Mountain Basins
Virginia Ruiz Villanueva

Madrid, 2012 Tesis doctoral
Nuevas Metodologías en la Evaluación de la Peligrosidady el
New Methods in the Flash Flood Hazard and Risk Analysis in Mountain Basins
El objetivo de este trabajo de investigación ha sido desarrollar nuevas metodologías que permitan mejorar
la evaluación del riesgo por avenidas en zonas montañosas. En primer lugar, se han integrado y combinado
diferentes fuentes de datos (instrumentales, históricas o documentales y dendrogeomorfológicas) para
recopilar y caracterizar las avenidas pasadas, e incorporar esta información al análisis de frecuencia.
A continuación, se ha incluido la carga leñosa en los análisis de peligrosidad y riesgo por avenidas.
A pesar de la importancia que tiene su presencia en la dinámica fluvial, este tipo de carga raramente ha
sido tenida en cuenta en los estudios de inundaciones. Para poder incluirla, se ha desarrollado un modelo
Riesgo por Avenidas en Cuencas de Montaña

numérico que permite simular el transporte de material leñoso junto con la hidrodinámica. Y por último,
se han evaluado las incertidumbres asociadas a cada una de las etapas del análisis de riesgo (estimación
de caudales, análisis de frecuencia, simulación hidrodinámica y evaluación de la vulnerabilidad), desde una
perspectiva probabilista. Estas metodologías se han llevado a cabo en varias cuencas y/o tramos de río
situados en la Sierra de Gredos (Sistema Central español).
The main objective of this research paper is therefore to develop new methods to improve flood risk evaluation
in mountain areas. First, the data from different instrumental, historical, documentary and dendrogeomorphologilcal
sources was integrated to compile and characterize past flash-floods and include this combined information in frequency
analysis. The woody load was then included in the flash-flood hazard and risk analyses. In spite of the significant impact
of the presence of this type of load on fluvial dynamics, it is seldom taken into account in flood studies. To allow this
factor to be included, a numerical model was developed to simulate the woody material transport in conjunction with
the hydrodynamics. Finally, the uncertainty at each stage of the risk analysis (flow rate estimate, frequency analysis,
hydrodynamic simulation and vulnerability assessment) was evaluated from a probabilistic viewpoint.This methodology
was implemented in various basins or river reaches in the Sierra de Gredos (Spanish Central System).
Directores:
Dr. José María Bodoque del Pozo Dr. Andrés Díez Herrero
Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha Instituto Geológico y Minero de España

UNIVER
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FACULTAD DEE CIENCIASS GEOLÓG
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DEPARTAMEENTO DE GGEODINÁM MICA

PROGRAMA TORADO “HIDROGEO

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Virgin
nia Ruiz Villanueva
Licenciadaa en Cienciaas Geológiccas
Dire
ectores:
Dr. JJosé M. Bo
odoque de
el Pozo Dr. And
drés Díez H
Herrero
UNIVVERSIDAD DE CASTILLA-LA MANCHA INSTITUTO

N GEOLÓGICO Y MIN
NERO DE ESPAÑ
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Madridd, Noviembrre de 2012

ÍNDICE DE LA MEMORIA
ÍNDICE
I. AGRADECIMIENTOS .............................................................................................. I
II. RESUMEN .................................................................................................................... V
III. ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................... IX
IV. ESTRUCTURA DE LA MEMORIA.................................................................... XI
1. INTRODUCCIÓN, ANTECEDENTES Y OBJETIVOS ............................ 1

1.1. Introducción....................................................................................................................... 3
1.1.1 Características de las cuencas y ríos de montaña ........................................... 3
1.1.2 Avenidas e inundaciones en zonas montañosas............................................ 17
1.1.3 Fuentes de datos en el estudio de avenidas .................................................. 20
1.2. Antecedentes.................................................................................................................. 26
1.2.1. Antecedentes en los estudios de avenidas en zonas de montaña . 26
1.2.2. Antecedentes en España ................................................................................ 30
1.3. Planteamiento de la problemática .......................................................................... 36
1.4. Hipótesis de partida y Objetivos ............................................................................ 38
2. MATERIALES Y MÉTODOS ............................................................................ 41

2.1. Análisis territorial ............................................................................................................ 46
2.1.1. Caracterización geomorfológica.................................................................... 46
2.1.2. Estudio de la vegetación .................................................................................. 50
2.2. Análisis dendrogeomorfológico .................................................................................. 51
2.3. Búsqueda de fuentes histórico-documentales .......................................................... 59
2.4. Análisis estadístico ........................................................................................................... 61
2.4.1. Estadística descriptiva ...................................................................................... 61
2.4.2. Estadística de valores extremos .................................................................... 63
2.4.3. Geoestadística.................................................................................................... 64
2.4.4. Estadística bayesiana ......................................................................................... 65
2.5. Modelización hidrometeorológica ............................................................................... 67
2.5.1. Métodos empíricos ........................................................................................... 67
2.5.2. Modelos hidrometeorológicos semi-distribuidos...................................... 68
2.6. Modelización hidrodinámica y estimación de caudales ........................................... 72
2.6.1. Modelización unidimensional.......................................................................... 74
2.6.2. Modelización bidimensional ............................................................................ 75
2.7. Estudio de la incorporación de la carga leñosa a los ríos ...................................... 79
2.8. Simulación hidrodinámica del transporte de detritos leñosos.............................. 82
2.9. Análisis de riesgo por avenidas con perspectiva probabilista incorporando el
transporte de material leñoso ..................................................................................... 86
3. ZONA DE ESTUDIO: LA SIERRA DE GREDOS ..................................... 89

3.1. Contexto geográfico, geológico y geomorfológico ................................................. 91
3.2. Contexto climático.......................................................................................................... 99
3.3. Tipos de suelo, vegetación, usos y aprovechamientos ........................................103
3.4. Avenidas e inundaciones en la zona de estudio......................................................109
4. RESULTADOS .................................................................................................................. 113

4.1. Dedrogeomorphic analysis of flash floods ...............................................................115
4.2. Frequency and characterization of flash floods ......................................................141
4.3. Reconstruction of a flash flood with large wood transport in an ungauged basin
............................................................................................................................................175
4.4. Wood recruitment due to landslides, bank erosion and floods .........................213
4.5. 2D hydrodynamic modelling of wood transport....................................................251
4.6. Modelling of wood transport at critical stream geometry configurations .......299
4.7. Flash flood risk evaluation and influence of wood transport ..............................325
5. SÍNTESIS, DISCUSIÓN Y CONCLUSIONES ........................................ 357

5.1. Síntesis y principales aportaciones.............................................................................359
5.2. Discusión general ......................................................................................................... 373
5.3. Futuras líneas de investigación....................................................................................381
5.4. Conclusiones................................................................................................................... 385
6. REFERENCIAS BIBLIOGRÁFICAS , FIGURAS Y TABLAS.............. 391

A mi abuelo

AGRADECIMIENTOS
I. AGRADECIMIENTOS
En las últimas semanas, antes de la finalización de esta memoria, pensaba en este

momento, el de resumir en unas pocas líneas toda mi gratitud hacia las muchísimas
personas que me han acompañado, me han apoyado y han hecho posible este trabajo. Y en
todos los casos me parecía una labor de síntesis dificilísima, pero también, un merecido
reconocimiento a todas ellas.
Desde un punto de vista institucional este trabajo se enmarca dentro de los proyectos
de investigación del Plan Nacional de I+D+i Dendro-Avenidas (CGL2007-62063-HID) y
MAS Dendro-Avenidas (CGL2010-19274) y ha estado financiado por una beca pre-
doctoral FPI (BES-2008-003725) del Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia, y por el Instituto
Geológico y Minero de España (IGME). También se ha contado con la colaboración de la
Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET), la Confederación Hidrográfica del Tajo, la
Junta de Castilla y León y los Ayuntamientos de Navaluenga, Arenas de San Pedro y
Guisando.
En primer lugar quiero agradecer a los directores de esta tesis, Andrés Díez Herrero y
José M. Bodoque del Pozo, el que un día, hace ahora 5 años, decidieran darme la
oportunidad de emprender este proyecto con ellos, depositando en mí toda su confianza.
En estos años me han acompañado a lo largo de todo el camino, ofreciéndome siempre su
conocimiento, su apoyo, su visión crítica y sus consejos. A ellos les debo el afán de
superación, entusiasmo y dedicación, y también la constancia y tozudez, con la que he
tratado de realizar siempre mi trabajo.
Y seguidamente, quiero hacer especial mención a José Francisco Martín Duque

(UCM), porque, sin saberlo, gracias a él cambié mi corta experiencia laboral en la empresa
privada para comenzar mis andaduras en el mundo de la investigación.
A continuación quiero recordar a todos mis compañeros del IGME. En especial, Juan
A. Ballesteros, compañero de despacho, de campo y de proyectos, del que he aprendido
mucho y con quien he compartido múltiples experiencias y espero seguir haciéndolo en el
futuro. Eulogio Pardo, Carolina Guardiola y Mario Hernández que con su colaboración
han contribuido notablemente al desarrollo de este trabajo. Además, en estos años, he
tenido la gran suerte de coincidir con Marta Díez, Teresa Herrero, Rut Sánchez, Laura
Becerril, Jorge Buzzi, Manuela Chamizo, Alberto Jiménez, Héctor Aguilera y el resto de
PIFs (personal investigador en formación), y compartir con ellos jornadas, congresos y
otras alegrías. Ángel Prieto, Carlos Lorenzo, Margarita Sanabria y Gerardo Herrera, a
quienes he acudido en innumerables ocasiones solicitando ayuda y consejos y siempre me
VIRGINIA RUIZ-VILLANUEVA I TESIS DOCTORAL/ PhD THESIS (2012)

AGRADECIMIENTOS
han resuelto las dudas con una sonrisa y una mejor predisposición; además de ser excelentes
compañeros de tupper y de buena conversación. Miguel A. Rodríguez Pascua y Raúl Pérez,
compañeros del Área de Riesgos Geológicos, y de cafés, quienes me descubrieron una nueva
manera de mirar los restos arqueológicos. Luis Carcavilla, me introdujo en el mundo de la
divulgación científica y el patrimonio geológico, gracias por hacerme partícipe de los
Geolodías, y por todo lo aprendido en Sobrarbe.
También quiero trasladar mi gratitud a todos los miembros de los proyectos Dendro-
Avenidas y MAS Dendro-Avenidas, que han seguido muy de cerca, y han participado de
forma activa, en el desarrollo de este trabajo. En particular, Miguel Ángel Éguibar (UPV),
que además me recibió en la Universidad Politécnica de Valencia para poner a mi
disposición sus conocimientos de hidráulica; también Mar Génova (UPM), por su ayuda
con la botánica y los análisis de muestras; José A. Fernández Yuste (UPM) y Carolina
Martínez (UPM) por sus gratificantes consejos y sugerencias; y Juan M. Rubiales (UPM).
También quiero agradecer a Ignacio Gutiérrez, Luis Fernández y Luis Barca su
colaboración en los trabajos de topografía, su predisposición a ayudar y facilitar lo más
posible esta tarea.
Sin duda, piezas indispensables en el desarrollo de este trabajo han sido las estancias
breves de investigación realizadas en estos años y financiadas por el Ministerio de Ciencia e
Innovación. Sin estas estancias, y sin la colaboración de las personas que se ofrecieron
generosamente a incorporarme a sus equipos de investigación como un miembro más, esta
tesis no hubiera sido igual. Además, en el plano personal también han supuesto unas
experiencias muy enriquecedoras y por ello guardaré siempre un recuerdo muy especial.
La primera de estas estancias fue en el Laboratorio de Dendrogeomorfología

Dendrolab.ch del Instituto de Ciencias Geológicas de la Universidad de Berna en Suiza.
Quiero trasladar todo mi agradecimiento a Markus Stoffel, Michell Schneuwly-
Bollschweiler y Estelle Arbellay. Durante los 3 meses que estuve allí pusieron todo su
entusiasmo y su esfuerzo en enseñarme las técnicas empleadas en los análisis
dendrogeomorfológicos, pero además, me ofrecieron su afecto y su confianza, que hoy en
día sigo teniendo la suerte de compartir. La colaboración de Markus Stoffel ha continuado
siendo relevante a lo largo del desarrollo de este trabajo, y seguro que lo será en el futuro;
además quiero agradecerle su invitación para realizar una breve campaña de campo en las
montañas Tatras en Polonia el verano de 2012 y poder así colaborar con Ryszard Kaczka y
Bartlomiej Wyzga (Śląski Univesrity y Polish Academy of Sciences, Institute of Nature
Conservation) entre otros.
La segunda estancia la realicé en el Departamento del Territorio y Sistema Agro-

Forestal (TESAF) de la Universidad de Padova (Italia). Gracias a Marco Borga en estos 4
meses pude colaborar en uno de sus proyectos, y aprender y reforzar mis conocimientos en
hidrología, en el uso y tratamiento de datos del radar meteorológico y en los estudios post
VIRGINIA RUIZ-VILLANUEVA II TESIS DOCTORAL/ PhD THESIS (2012)

AGRADECIMIENTOS
evento. Quiero resaltar la acogida, el apoyo y el compañerismo de todos los miembros del
departamento, en especial a mis compañeros de despacho, Davide Zocatelli y Francesco
Marra, pero también a Daniele Penna, Paolo Tarolli, Nicola Mantesse, Alberto de Luca,
Alberto Gobbi, Enrico Pozza, etc. Además esta experiencia también me permitió colaborar
con Lorenzo Marchi y Eric Gaume que han actuado como evaluadores de esta tesis.
La tercera estancia fue en el Instituto FLUMEN, en la Escuela de Caminos de la

Universidad Politécnica de Catalunya (UPC). Sin dudarlo, esta estancia ha sido clave en el
desarrollo de este trabajo. Por eso quiero remarcar con especial énfasis el entusiasmo y la
motivación con que me recibieron Ernest Bladé y Martí Sánchez. En esos 3 meses pusieron
a mi disposición todo su conocimiento en hidráulica, programación y en ensayos de
laboratorio. Su colaboración ha continuado después de la estancia, y estoy segura de que
seguirá en el futuro. También, tuve la gran suerte de trabajar con Soledad Estrella, Belén
Martí, Georgina Corestein, Hans Sánchez, Ceferino Robledo y Joaquim Rabada; y
compartir despacho y coincidir con Irene Seco, Jannette Zambrano y Marina Arbat.
Complemento fundamental ha sido también la asistencia a congresos, reuniones

científicas y jornadas. Estos eventos sirvieron de punto de encuentro para compartir y
aprender, además de poder conocer e intercambiar impresiones con algunos de los mejores
especialistas en el estudio de la dinámica fluvial y las inundaciones. Quisiera destacar por
ello, de entre todos, mi asistencia al EGU 2009 (Viena), Plinius 2009 (Barcelona), Reunión
de Geomorfología 2010 (Solsona), INQUA 2011 (Berna), Jornadas de la Red de
Laboratorios de Hidráulica 2011 (Madrid) y Floods 3D (Bratislava). En uno de estos
congresos (11th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Storms), coincidí con Varyl
Thorndycraft (Royal Hollow, Universidad de Londres); quiero agradecerle su invitación
para realizar una breve campaña de campo al Norte de Inglaterra en el invierno de 2009.
El maravilloso entorno en el que he tenido la fortuna de trabajar, la Sierra de Gredos,

también es objeto de mención. Además de los días tan especiales que he pasado allí, hay
varias personas que facilitaron y amenizaron las campañas de campo. Quiero empezar por
agradecer a José Luis Galán (agente medioambiental de la Junta de Castilla y León), el
acompañarnos innumerables veces a descargar los pluviómetros a la Sierra del Valle.
También a Gloria Suárez y Sixto Díaz (agentes medioambientales de la Junta de Castilla y
León), Ana, Blanca y Teresa (Casa del Parque el Risquillo), Nuria Blázquez
(Ayuntamiento de Arenas de San Pedro) y Fernando Palacios que me prestaron su ayuda y
colaboración en todos los trabajos llevados a cabo en Guisando y Arenas de San Pedro.
Por último, quiero expresar mi agradecimiento a mi familia y amig@s.
A mis amig@s (la cuchipandi, no os nombro a tod@s porque como la familia no para
de crecer, no terminaría…). Con ellos lo he compartido todo, y aguantan mi insistente
esfuerzo por enseñarles a mirar el paisaje con ojos de geólogo; gracias por la paciencia, el
VIRGINIA RUIZ-VILLANUEVA III TESIS DOCTORAL/ PhD THESIS (2012)

AGRADECIMIENTOS
apoyo y el inmenso cariño, además de por el asesoramiento en la maquetación y diseño de

esta memoria. También a mis amig@s, los geólog@s (familia que también ha empezado a
crecer); con ell@s no sólo comparto la amistad y el afecto que se inició en la Universidad
(en la Complutense y en la de Oviedo), sino además la pasión por esta ciencia.
A mis padres y mi hermano, imprescindibles, porque siempre me han apoyado y

animado, con toda su confianza y todo su amor, en todas las decisiones que he tomado. No
sólo durante el trascurso de estos años de tesis, sino durante toda la vida. Ellos tienen todo
mi reconocimiento, mi admiración, mi respeto, y por supuesto todo mi cariño. Además, de
ellos, otra persona, con quien comparto mi vida, ha sido testigo esencial, día a día, de las
alegrías y los malos momentos (que también los ha habido) que he experimentado en estos
años. Él mejor que nadie conoce todo lo que ha supuesto llegar hasta aquí, y gracias a su
comprensión, su confianza, su paciencia, su apoyo incondicional y su amor, he podido
superar los obstáculos que han ido apareciendo, remplazándolos por felicidad y alegría.
VIRGINIA RUIZ-VILLANUEVA IV TESIS DOCTORAL/ PhD THESIS (2012)

RESUMEN
II. RESUMEN
Las características fisiográficas y climáticas propias de las zonas de montaña

determinan los procesos hidrológicos y geomorfológicos que tienen lugar en sus cuencas
hidrográficas. Además, esas características condicionan la disposición a generar avenidas
súbitas (flash floods). Este tipo de inundaciones muestran hidrogramas apuntados que
alcanzan su máximo en cuestión de horas o incluso minutos tras intensas lluvias (o fusión
repentina de nieve); tienen lugar en cuencas de pequeño tamaño (pocos cientos de
kilómetros cuadrados o menos), con tiempos de respuesta muy cortos, dejando así muy
poco margen de alerta. Estas avenidas pueden desencadenar la movilización de cantidades
variables de material sólido (sedimento detrítico y carga leñosa) modificando la dinámica y
la morfología de los cauces. Desde el punto de vista de la peligrosidad, el transporte y
depósito de esta carga sólida, puede producir una amplificación significativa en la magnitud
de la avenida. Esto puede ocurrir como consecuencia de una reducción del área de la
sección transversal del cauce; por ejemplo, en puentes, debido a la obstrucción por el
material leñoso. Asimismo, las avenidas súbitas rara vez son registradas en las redes
instrumentales convencionales de pluviómetros y estaciones de aforo; debido, por un lado,
a la variabilidad espacio-temporal de las precipitaciones en estas regiones montañosas; y por
otro, a que estas redes instrumentales suelen estar instaladas en las zonas bajas y en los ríos
de la red fluvial principal. Por todo ello, las avenidas súbitas son el tipo de inundación
asociado con un mayor número de víctimas mortales en Europa.
Por lo tanto, el objetivo de este trabajo de investigación ha sido desarrollar nuevas

metodologías que permitan mejorar la evaluación del riesgo por avenidas en estas zonas
montañosas. En primer lugar, se han integrado y combinado diferentes fuentes de datos
(instrumentales, históricas o documentales y dendrogeomorfológicas) para recopilar y
caracterizar las avenidas pasadas, e incorporar esta información al análisis de frecuencia. A
continuación, se ha incluido la carga leñosa en los análisis de peligrosidad y riesgo por
avenidas. A pesar de la importancia que tiene su presencia en la dinámica fluvial, este tipo
de carga raramente ha sido tenida en cuenta en los estudios de inundaciones. Para poder
incluirla, se ha desarrollado un modelo numérico que permite simular el transporte de
material leñoso junto con la hidrodinámica. Y por último, se han evaluado las
incertidumbres asociadas a cada una de las etapas del análisis de riesgo (estimación de
caudales, análisis de frecuencia, simulación hidrodinámica y evaluación de la
vulnerabilidad), desde una perspectiva probabilista. Estas metodologías se han llevado a
cabo en varias cuencas y/o tramos de río situados en la Sierra de Gredos (Sistema Central
español).
VIRGINIA RUIZ-VILLANUEVA V TESIS DOCTORAL/ PhD THESIS (2012)

RESUMEN
Los resultados obtenidos permiten afirmar que las técnicas dendrogeomorfológicas

han resultado ser una potente herramienta en la datación y la obtención de cronologías de
avenidas pasadas; además de ser de utilidad en la interpretación de la dinámica fluvial. La
combinación de estas técnicas con fuentes documentales completa las cronologías y
posibilita la extracción de información acerca de las causas meteorológicas y de los daños
ocasionados. Por otro lado, el uso conjunto de diferentes métodos paleohidrológicos y de
post evento, y la modelización hidrológica e hidráulica, permite la reconstrucción de la
magnitud de eventos no registrados instrumentalmente. La integración de estos eventos
reconstruidos en los análisis de frecuencia, reduce la incertidumbre en la estimación de los
cuantiles. Sin embargo, según sean incorporados estos datos al análisis (como datos
censurados, intervalos de valores, o datos sin incertidumbre), los cuantiles resultantes
pueden variar. Por lo tanto, esta variabilidad deberá ser tenida en cuenta cuando estos datos
sean utilizados en análisis de riesgo
Los resultados han demostrado también que el transporte de material leñoso influye
significativamente en las consecuencias de una avenida, y por tanto, este proceso no puede
ser obviado. Con la obtención de las curvas `calado-obstrucción´ es posible interpretar el
comportamiento hidráulico y la sobrelevación que producirá una determinada reducción
de la sección, debida al transporte y depósito de la carga leñosa. Asimismo, la amplificación
de las consecuencias de la avenida por causa de esta obstrucción puede definirse mediante el
nuevo concepto de `periodo de retorno equivalente´.
Para entender los mecanismos de incorporación de este material leñoso a los cauces y
poder realizar estimaciones de volúmenes, es necesario definir las áreas contribuyentes y
realizar un análisis de la vegetación. Con el fin de llevar a cabo estos análisis, tanto a escala
regional como de cuenca, los sistemas de información geográfica junto con la construcción
de matrices de lógica difusa, constituyen una herramienta eficaz cuando se dispone de los
datos necesarios. De esta forma, es posible cuantificar el volumen de material que puede
llegar a un tramo de río y que puede ser un riesgo potencial por su transporte durante una
avenida. Para analizar este transporte y su influencia en la hidrodinámica se ha desarrollado
un modelo numérico integrado en un modelo hidráulico bidimensional. El desarrollo de
este modelo supone una aportación novedosa ya que no existía hasta el momento una
herramienta similar que permitiera simular el movimiento de material leñoso junto con la
hidrodinámica. La validación mediante ensayos con modelos físicos de laboratorio, y su
aplicación en dos zonas de estudio ha puesto de manifiesto su utilidad en los análisis de
peligrosidad y riesgo por avenidas. El modelo permite reconstruir avenidas con abundante
carga leñosa, simulando los diferentes regímenes de transporte y reproduce los patrones de
transporte y depósito del material. Por todo ello, este modelo puede ser también empleado
en otros estudios de la dinámica fluvial, de restauración o ecológicos.
VIRGINIA RUIZ-VILLANUEVA VI TESIS DOCTORAL/ PhD THESIS (2012)

RESUMEN
Además, el planteamiento de los análisis combinando una perspectiva probabilista

con la generación de escenarios, permite obtener resultados fiables, en zonas donde no
existen datos para calibrar los modelos, o estos son escasos; como suele ocurrir en la mayor
parte de zonas de montaña. También, este planteamiento hace posible analizar diferentes
situaciones, desde las más probables al llamado `peor caso posible´ (worst-case scenario),
evaluando los potenciales daños y/o pérdidas económicas asociadas a cada una de ellas.
Como conclusión, la combinación de diferentes fuentes de datos, junto con el

empleo de métodos indirectos para la reconstrucción de eventos, la incorporación de la
carga leñosa, y la aproximación probabilista y de generación de escenarios en los análisis de
riesgo, supone una mejora en los estudios de avenidas en zonas de montaña. Por otro lado,
aunque las metodologías propuestas en esta investigación se han aplicado en un sector
concreto de la Sierra de Gredos, resultan de utilidad y fácilmente extrapolables para su
empleo en cualquier otra zona montañosa.
VIRGINIA RUIZ-VILLANUEVA VII TESIS DOCTORAL/ PhD THESIS (2012)

ABSTRACT
VIRGINIA RUIZ-VILLANUEVA VIII TESIS DOCTORAL/ PhD THESIS (2012)

ABSTRACT
III. ABSTRACT
The physiographic and climatic characteristics of mountain areas determine the

hydrological processes which occur in their basins. These characteristics also affect whether
they are prone to flash floods. Floods of this type show flashy hydrographs which reach
their peak within hours or even minutes after heavy rainfall or sudden snowmelt; they
occur in small basins (of up to a few square kilometres in area), with very short response
times, leaving very little advance warning. These flash floods may trigger the mobilization
of varying amounts of solid load (debris laden sediment and woody material), altering the
dynamics and morphology of the stream bed. In terms of potential risk, the transport and
deposition of this solid load may significantly increase the impact of the flash flood. Cross-
sectional obstruction may reduce the stream bed area; e.g. at bridges obstructed by woody
material. Flash floods are also seldom recorded by the conventional instrumented networks
of rain gauges and stream gauges; this is because of the space-time rainfall variability in
mountain areas and also because the gauge networks are usually installed in low-lying areas
in the main river networks. All of the above are why flash floods are linked to the highest
death tolls in Europe from flooding.
The main objective of this research paper is therefore to develop new methods to
improve flood risk evaluation in mountain areas. First, the data from different
instrumental, historical, documentary and dendrogeomorphological sources was integrated
to compile and characterize past flash-floods and include this combined information in
frequency analysis. The woody load was then included in the flash-flood hazard and risk
analyses. In spite of the significant impact of the presence of this type of load on fluvial
dynamics, it is seldom taken into account in flood studies. To allow this factor to be
included, a numerical model was developed to simulate the woody material transport in
conjunction with the hydrodynamics. Finally, the uncertainty at each stage of the risk
analysis (flow rate estimate, frequency analysis, hydrodynamic simulation and vulnerability
assessment) was evaluated from a probabilistic viewpoint. This methodology was
implemented in various basins or river reaches in the Sierra de Gredos (Spanish Central
System).
The results obtained confirm that dendrogeomorphological techniques are a

powerful tool which can be used to obtain and date the chronology of past floods and to
interpret the fluvial dynamics. Combining these techniques with documentary sources
complements the chronologies and allows information on the meteorological causes and
resulting damage to be extracted. On the other hand, with the combined use of different
paleohydrological and post-event methods, and hydrological and hydraulic modelling, the
magnitude of events not logged by the gauges can be reconstructed. Integrating these
VIRGINIA RUIZ-VILLANUEVA IX TESIS DOCTORAL/ PhD THESIS (2012)

ABSTRACT
reconstructed events into the frequency analysis reduced uncertainty in the quantile
estimates. However, depending on how these data are included in the analysis (as censored
data, value intervals or data with negligible uncertainty), the resulting quantiles may vary.
This variation must therefore be taken into account when using these data in risk analysis.
The results have also shown that the transport of woody material has a significant
effect on the outcome of a flash flood, and therefore this process cannot be ignored.
Obtaining the clogging curves allows the interpretation of the hydraulic behaviour and
water surface elevation produced by a specific cross-sectional reduction due to the
transport and deposition of the wood load. The increased effect of the flash flood because
of this obstruction can also be defined using the new concept of ‘equivalent return period’.
To understand the entrainment mechanisms of this woody material in the stream

bed and to obtain volume estimates, the recruitment areas must be defined and a
vegetation analysis carried out. Implementing a GIS and constructing fuzzy logic matrixes
are useful tools for these analyses on both regional and basin scales, where the data required
are available. This allows quantification of the volume of material which may reach a
particular point in the river and become a potential hazard if transported during a flash
flood. A numerical model integrated into a 2D hydraulic model was developed to analyze
this wood transport and how it affects the hydrodynamics. The development of this model
is an innovative contribution, as to date no similar tool is available to simulate the
movement of woody material in conjunction with hydrodynamics. The model was
validated with physical models in the laboratory and applied to two study sites, and has
demonstrated its usefulness in flash-flood risk and hazard analysis. The model enables the
reconstruction of flash floods with abundant woody load, simulating different transport
regimes and reproducing material deposition and transport patterns. For all of these
reasons, this model is also applicable to other studies of river dynamics, restoration or
ecology.
In addition, this approach, which combines analysis with probabilistic scenario

generation, allows reliable results to be obtained in locations where there is little or no data
to calibrate the models, as is often the case in mountain areas. Finally, different situations
ranging from the most probable to the worst-case scenario can be analyzed with this
approach and the potential damage and/or financial losses deriving from each of them can
be evaluated.
In conclusion, a risk analysis that combines different data, the use of indirect
methods to reconstruct events, the inclusion of woody loads, a probabilistic approach and
scenario generation leads to improvements in the study of flash floods in mountain areas.
Although the methodology proposed in this paper has been applied to a specific sector of
the Sierra de Gredos, it can be easily extrapolated to other mountain areas.
VIRGINIA RUIZ-VILLANUEVA X TESIS DOCTORAL/ PhD THESIS (2012)

ESTRUCTURA
IV. ESTRUCTURA DE LA MEMORIA
Este documento ha sido elaborado según la estructura clásica de un trabajo de

investigación.
En primer lugar, el Capítulo 1 comienza con una breve Introducción en la que se

hace especial hincapié en las características hidrogeomorfológicas particulares de las zonas
de montaña, su disposición a generar avenidas, y los condicionantes que requieren los
planteamientos y análisis de riesgos llevados a cabo en ellas. Tras esta introducción a la
problemática se presentan los objetivos específicos de esta investigación.
El Capítulo 2 describe de forma general los diferentes materiales y métodos

empleados para alcanzar los objetivos de este trabajo, desagregando los diferentes conjuntos
de técnicas y procedimientos de acuerdo a su naturaleza analítica.
El Capítulo 3 presenta el contexto geográfico, geológico y climático de la zona de

estudio donde se ha realizado el trabajo de investigación, la Sierra de Gredos; aunque los
detalles de las diferentes cuencas estudiadas se dan en los respectivos apartados de
resultados.
El Capítulo 4 recoge los resultados en siete artículos publicados, o en fase de

publicación, en revistas científicas internacionales, cada uno de los cuales da respuesta a
alguno de los diferentes objetivos planteados.
Finalmente, el Capítulo 5 hace una síntesis de los resultados, resaltando las

principales aportaciones, así como una discusión integrada de los mismos exponiendo las
limitaciones; a continuación se plantean futuras líneas de investigación y se concluye con
unas conclusiones finales.
Al final se recogen las referencias y citas bibliográficas utilizadas en los Capítulos 1, 2,

3 y 5, en el Capítulo 6. En este capítulo se presenta además el listado de figuras y tablas.
VIRGINIA RUIZ-VILLANUEVA XI TESIS DOCTORAL/ PhD THESIS (2012)

CAPÍTULO /CHAPTER 1
1. INTRODUCCIÓN, ANTECEDENTES
Y OBJETIVOS
1.1 Introducción
1.1.1. Características de las cuencas y ríos de montaña
1.1.2. Avenidas e inundaciones en zonas montañosas
1.1.3. Fuentes de datos en el estudio de avenidas
1.2. Antecedentes
1.2.1. Antecedentes en los estudios de avenidas en zonas de
montaña
1.2.2. Antecedentes en España
1.3. Planteamiento de la problemática

1.4. Hipótesis de partida y Objetivos
VIRGINIA RUIZ-VILLANUEVA 1 TESIS DOCTORAL/ PhD THESIS (2012)


1.1. Introducción
1.1.1. Características de las cuencas y ríos de montaña
Los ríos sensu lato están presentes en la mayoría de ambientes y paisajes de la Tierra y
han sido estudiados por científicos de forma sistemática a lo largo de la historia de la
humanidad (Plinio, Leonardo Da Vinci, Humboldt, etc.). De las diferentes tipologías de
ríos descritas en la bibliografía, este trabajo de investigación aborda el estudio de ríos o
arroyos de montaña, cuyas características particulares los diferencian de los ríos que
discurren por las llanuras o zonas bajas (Surrel, 1841; Dana, 1850; Shaler, 1891). A pesar
de que una región montañosa pueda asociarse de forma intuitiva con una determinada
altitud y/o pendiente, no existe un acuerdo generalizado en su definición. El programa de
medio ambiente de las Naciones Unidas (UNEP-WCMC) da ciertos criterios para
delimitar regiones montañosas basados en estos dos parámetros (altitud y pendiente); al
igual que la Comisión Europea de análisis de regiones montañosas en Europa (European
Commission contract No 2002.CE.16.0.AT.136 en 2004) que además añade como
criterio la combinación de ambos (Directiva 75/268/CEE y Reglamento CE-1257/1999).
En España, la Carta Española de las Montañas, en su último borrador, todavía no

incluye una definición que adapte los criterios europeos a las particularidades de la
orografía de la península Ibérica (MAGRAMA, 2012). En cambio, la Ley 25/1982 de
Agricultura de Montaña identifica áreas de montaña como zonas homogéneas que se
encuentren en alguno de los siguientes casos: (i) un 80% de su superficie en cotas superiores
a los 1000 m sobre el nivel del mar (este mismo criterio en el valor de elevación ha sido
definido por otros autores como Viviroli et al., 2003); (ii) pendiente media superior al 20%
o diferencia entre cotas mayor a 400 m; (iii) concurrir simultáneamente circunstancias de
altitud y pendiente que, sin llegar a los valores anteriores, las hagan equiparables.
En base a lo anterior, un amplio porcentaje de la superficie terrestre puede

considerarse como montañoso (Fig. 1.1), existiendo grandes cadenas y regiones
montañosas, además de mesetas y macizos elevados en todos los continentes: un 52% de la
superficie de Asia, 36% de Norteamérica, 25% de Europa, 22% de Suramérica, 17 % de
Australia y 3% de África; así como otras zonas de islas como Japón y Nueva Zelanda
(Wohl, 2010). Así, cuencas (y ríos) de montaña están presentes de forma generalizada en la

superficie del Planeta (entre un 60 y un 80% de la red de drenaje de acuerdo a Schumm,

1956 o Shreve, 1969) aunque con características climáticas y geológicas muy diversas.
Figure 1.1: Global Topography and Bathymetry. Mountain areas colored in brown.
(Wavemetrics, 2012).
Figura 1.1: Topografía y batimetría mundial. En colores marrones las zona de montaña.
Longitud y latitud en grados (Wavemetrics, 2012).
Atendiendo al otro parámetro clave, la pendiente, varios autores han introducido

diferentes términos para denominar a los ríos que discurren por terreno montañoso. Según
Wohl (2010) y Wohl y Merritt (2008) los arroyos o ríos de montaña son aquéllos con una
pendiente longitudinal ≥ 0,002 m·m-1; Bathurst (1987) o Thompson et al. (2006)
describen las corrientes de montaña con un gradiente ≥ 0,01 m·m-1. También Chiari y
Rickenmann (2010) establecen un gradiente ≥ 0,01 m·m-1 para definir los ríos o canales de
alta pendiente (steep channels); y Rickenmann y Koschni (2010) denominan torrentes a
aquellos tramos de ríos cuyo gradiente es superior a 0,05 m·m-1 siendo el área de drenaje
aguas arriba ≤ 25 km2; mientras que para Zuna (2008) un torrente es aquel que presenta un
gradiente ≥ 0,03 m·m-1.
Siguiendo los criterios anteriores, en este trabajo denominaremos río de montaña a

aquel que se encuentra en una cuenca montañosa, definida esta por presentar una elevación
en general ≥ a 700 m sobre el nivel del mar, y una pendiente media ≥0,002 m·m-1.

Además, son las zonas montañosas las que acumulan más de la mitad de los recursos
de agua dulce de la Tierra (Viviroli et al, 2003; Weingartner et al., 2003), pudiendo
representar a escala regional el caudal generado en estas zonas, el 95% del caudal total de
una cuenca (Liniger et al., 1998; Viviroli y Weingartner, 2004). Sin embargo,
tradicionalmente han recibido menos atención que las cuencas de los grandes ríos de las
regiones más llanas (Montgomery and Buffington, 1997), debido principalmente a la
dificultad de acceso y explotación de recursos como la pesca (Benda et al., 2005). Aunque
esta tendencia parece haber cambiado en las últimas décadas, al menos desde el punto de
vista medioambiental o en los estudios de cambio climático. En 1992, en la Cumbre sobre
la Tierra (Conferencia de las Naciones Unidas sobre el Medio Ambiente y el Desarrollo)
de Río de Janeiro, se incluyó un Capítulo 13 titulado «Ordenación de los ecosistemas
frágiles: desarrollo sostenible de las zonas de montaña» en el Programa 21, principal
documento de la reunión. La Comisión de las Naciones Unidas sobre Desarrollo
Sostenible designó después a la FAO como coordinador de tareas para este capítulo de las
montañas. Una colaboración de amplitud sin precedentes entre organismos de las Naciones
Unidas, gobiernos nacionales, organizaciones internacionales, ONG e instituciones de
investigación, hizo posible presentar en el período extraordinario de sesiones de la
Asamblea General de las Naciones Unidas, Cumbre sobre la Tierra + 5, en 1997, un
extenso informe titulado Mountains of the world: a global priority (Montañas del mundo:
una prioridad mundial; Messerli e Ives, 1997), y un documento complementario sobre
políticas, Mountains of the world: challenges for the twenty-first century (Montañas del
mundo: desafíos para el siglo XXI; Bisaz et al., 1997).
Los principales factores que determinan los procesos hidrológicos y geomorfológicos

que tienen lugar en una determinada región montañosa son el clima y la geología. Además,
el grado de desarrollo espacial de estos procesos hidro-geomorfológicos producen los tres
tipos básicos de contextos geomorfológicos en que tradicionalmente se divide una cuenca
hidrológica (Schumm, 1977; Sear, 1994): zona de producción, zona de transporte y zona
de depósito (Fig.1.2). Según esta división, la Zona A representa la zona más alta de la
cuenca (zona de producción o de generación) y es fundamentalmente de dominio coluvial.
Constituida por cuencas de orden cero según Hack (1965), sin flujo canalizado o con
canales intermitentes (Dietrich et al., 1978), en esta zona los procesos fundamentales que
se producen están ligados a las laderas, con predominio de producción de sedimentos,
presentando una elevada susceptibilidad a la ocurrencia de erosión por arroyada y
deslizamientos superficiales (Dietrich y Dunne, 1978), que pueden evolucionar a procesos
de tipo corrientes de derrubios (debris flows) aguas abajo (Blahust et al., 2010). El límite
que determina la formación de un canal bien definido viene dado por la zona donde se

produce un exceso de saturación, que da lugar al inicio de la escorrentía superficial en las

vaguadas (Dietrich y Dunne, 1993; Sidle et al., 2000). La zona B, de altitud media, es la
zona de transporte, definida por canales de primer y segundo orden. Esta zona es de
marcado dominio aluvial, perdiendo influencia la producción de sedimentos, y con
predominio del desarrollo de la zona de transferencia que transporta el agua y la carga
sólida. Los procesos que suelen caracterizar esta zona son los flujos hiperconcentrados
(Costa, 1984). Puede entrar en el sistema además el material leñoso (Bocchiola et al.,
2006), ya que en esta zona la densidad de vegetación arbórea suele aumentar. La
proporción de material leñoso que llegaría al cauce dependerá de los procesos de
incorporación (principalmente deslizamientos, debris flows, erosión de bancos de orilla y
transporte fluvial) y del tipo de vegetación (Benda et al., 2002). Finalmente, la zona más
baja de la cuenca (Zona C), también denominada zona de respuesta, está formada por
canales de tercer orden en adelante, con marcado carácter aluvial-fluvial. A lo largo del
trazado de los canales se suele producir el depósito en las márgenes en forma de barras, o los
derrubios en el lecho. En las zonas de ruptura de pendiente se pueden formar depósitos
asociados a flujos tractivos, hiperconcentrados y migración de zonas activas por avulsiones
o encajamientos del canal (Wohl, 2010).
Siguiendo con esta filosofía basada en la secuencia de procesos geomorfológicos que

tienen lugar en las cuencas montañosas, Nakamura et al. (2000) proponen un modelo
conceptual en cascada, en el que intervienen los tres componentes señalados en la Figura
1.2: el contenido en agua, la proporción de sedimento y la carga leñosa. Este esquema en
cascada refleja la tendencia o cambio progresivo desde las zonas altas hacia aguas abajo, en
función de la frecuencia de los distintos procesos geomorfológicos, en la cantidad de
material que puede movilizarse (sedimento y carga leñosa), su régimen de transporte
(episódico o continuo) y los depósitos asociados.

Figure 1.2: Stylized and simplified sketch of the three primary zones of a mountain
drainage basin based on hydrogeomorphic processes.
Figura 1.2: Esquema idealizado y simplificado de las diferentes zonas en que puede dividirse
una cuenca hidrológica de montaña en función de los procesos hidrogeomorfológicos.
De esta forma, otros autores proponen considerar el río y el ecosistema que lleva
asociado como un geosistema lineal, en el que los procesos que tienen lugar aguas abajo
están condicionados por los que suceden aguas arriba (Garzón-Heydt, 1999).
Basándose en esta compartimentación de la cuenca y sobre todo en los procesos y su

grado de conectividad, tanto espacialmente (Brierley et al., 2006), como hidrológicamente
debido al rápido movimiento de flujos de agua y material sólido (Bracken y Croke, 2007;
Fryirs et al., 2007), Buffington y Montgomery (1997) propusieron una clasificación
morfológica específica para cuencas montañosas (Fig. 1.3).
Estos autores (Buffington y Montgomery, 1997) proponen 3 grandes grupos de

canales (Fig. 1.4): canales coluviales, canales aluviales confinados y canales aluviales no
confinados. Pero además, en función del substrato por el que discurre el cauce, diferencian
diversas morfologías. Así, los ríos sobre lecho coluvial suelen tener un débil o efímero

transporte fluvial, resultando insuficiente para removilizar y almacenar el material coluvial;

siendo el transporte episódico de los flujos de derrubios el principal proceso de transporte
de sedimento en estos cauces (Benda, 1990); se encuentran generalmente en la Zona
definida como A en la figura 1.2. Por el contrario, los ríos sobre substrato aluvial (Zona B
en la figura 1.2) presentan morfologías más variadas en función de la pendiente y de su
posición con respecto a la red de drenaje. Pueden estar confinados o desarrollar llanuras de
inundación más o menos extensas. Estos autores definen cinco formas principales de
tramos: cascadas (cascades), saltos y pozas (step-pool), lecho plano (plane bed), rápidos y
pozas (pool rifle) y lecho dunar (dune ripple). Por último, los ríos en substrato rocoso
suelen estar caracterizados por una elevada capacidad de transporte y suelen estar
confinados y encajados en laderas de elevada pendiente, aunque pueden presentarse en
tramos medios y bajos.
Figure 1.3: Differences in disturbance processes among colluvial. confined alluvial, and
unconfined alluvial channels in mountain drainage basins (based on Montgomery and
Buffington, 1997).
Figura 1.3: Procesos y morfologías asociadas a los diferentes canales de una cuenca de
montaña: canales coluviales, confinados aluviales y aluviales no confinados (Tomado y
traducido de Montgomery y Buffington, 1997).

VIRGINIA RUIZ-VILLANUEVA
9
Figure 1.4: Idealized long profile from hillslopes and unchanneled hollows downslope through the channel network showing
the general distribution of alluvial channel types and controls on channel processes in mountain drainage basins (modified
from Montgomery and Buffington, 1997). Red box shows the type of channels studied in this work.
Figura 1.4: Clasificación de diferentes morfologías de ríos en función del sustrato y distribución espacial en la cuenca
(modificado y traducido de Montgomery y Buffington, 1997). El cuadro rojo indica los tipos estudiados en este trabajo.
TESIS DOCTORAL/ PhD THESIS (2012)

Los tramos en cascada suelen aparecer en las zonas de elevada pendiente,

corresponden a tramos muy encajados o confinados y se caracterizan por un material
grueso (cantos y bloques) sin organización. En estos tramos se consigue la estabilidad a
través de la disipación de la energía por turbulencia y en las caídas de agua (Peterson y
Mohanty, 1960), mientras que el material grueso suele movilizarse sólo durante eventos de
muy baja frecuencia (Grant, 1990).
Las morfologías de salto-poza generalmente se asocian también a tramos de elevado

gradiente y confinados, lo que confiere al flujo una alternancia entre régimen crítico y
subcrítico (Bowman, 1977). Generalmente los saltos están formados por material grueso
(cantos y bloques) y las pozas por material de menor tamaño (gravas y arenas). Esta
formación mixta ha sido interpretada de diversas formas, desde la onda cinématica
(Langbein y Leopold, 1968) a antidunas a macroescala (McDonald y Banerjee, 1971; Shaw
y Kellerhals, 1977; Grant y Mizuyama, 1991). El aporte y movilización de sedimento se
produce durante eventos de baja frecuencia caracterizados por un flujo cercano a crítico y
con periodos de menor actividad que proporcionan la estabilización del material (Grant y
Mizuyama, 1991; Whittaker y Jaeggi, 1982; Abrahams et al., 1995).
Los tramos de lecho plano aparecen en zonas de moderada a alta pendiente, en

canales relativamente rectos que pueden o no estar confinados. Están formados
típicamente por material tamaño arena acompañado de gravas y cantos de tamaño medio.
Suelen caracterizarse por una elevada capacidad de transporte, produciéndose la
movilización del material en eventos cercanos al caudal de bancos llenos (bankfull;
Dietrich, 1989; Buffington, 1995).
La secuencia de pozas y rápidos se forma en tramos de gradiente moderado a bajo,

generalmente no confinados y con llanuras de inundación bien formadas. El material suele
ser tamaño grava o arena. Se diferencian de los anteriores en que presentan en planta una
morfología más sinuosa, formada por depresiones topográficas (pozas) y zonas más
elevadas, generalmente barras, que definen una secuencia de contracción y expansión del
flujo (Leopold, 1964; Lisle, 1986). El umbral de movilización de material suele ser el
caudal cercano al de bankfull (Parker et al., 1982), además la re movilización suele ser
discontinua y dependiente de la velocidad de la corriente; generalmente el material
erosionado suele ser depositado en zonas adyacentes aguas abajo (Buffington et al., 1992).
Finalmente, los tramos de lecho dunar suelen estar asociados a cauces de muy bajo
gradiente, formados por material tamaño grava o arena y de lecho móvil (Kennedy, 1975).

Teóricamente, los ríos de alta-media pendiente que presentan una elevada capacidad
de transporte no deberían acumular grandes depósitos de sedimento (Montgomery et al.,
1996). Sin embargo, la propia presencia de bloques y bolos actúa como obstrucción,
produciendo una reducción local de la pendiente y de la velocidad del flujo, incrementando
la retención de sedimento (Benda et al., 2005). También los deslizamientos y flujos que
tienen lugar en las partes altas aportan cantidades elevadas de material a los cauces.
Además la presencia de material leñoso puede llegar a retener y acumular también

volúmenes significativos de sedimento (Jackson and Sturn, 2002; Lancaster et al., 2003) y
puede ser determinante en la configuración morfológica del río (Montgomery et al., 1995).
Aunque el papel del material leñoso en la dinámica de los ríos ya fue destacado por
científicos como Lyell (1830), Shoecraft (1875) o Russell (1909), no ha sido estudiado de
forma sistemática hasta las últimas décadas (Swanson y Lienkaemper, 1984; Bilby y Ward,
1989; Nakamura y Swanson, 1993; Piegay, 1993; Abbe y Montgomery, 1996; Gurnell et
al., 2001; entre otros).
Los bosques modernos cubren casi un tercio de la superficie de la Tierra (Atjay et al.
1979), pero la madera ha estado presente en los arroyos y ríos durante más de 400 millones
de años, aunque su peso relativo en los ecosistemas de agua dulce ha variado
sustancialmente a través del tiempo geológico (Schumm 1968; Cotter, 1978; Montgomery
et al., 2003; Fig. 1.5). Tradicionalmente la morfología de los cauces se ha relacionado
fundamentalmente con la carga de sedimentos; sin embargo, la presencia de vegetación y
material leñoso también ha sido determinante. La evolución de las plantas coincide con
una mayor abundancia de depósitos de ríos meandriformes en el registro geológico (hasta
ese momento los depósitos más abundantes eran de tipo braided; Schumm 1968; Cotter,
1978). El desarrollo de un patrón de meandros requiere la cohesión de las barras y bancos
de orilla (Schumm 1963); esta cohesión pudo ser proporcionada por la vegetación de
ribera. Esta teoría se confirmaría con la datación de abundantes restos vegetales en
depósitos meandriformes del Carbonífero, y pudo ser así al menos hasta el Pérmico-
Triásico, momento en el que vuelven a ser más abundantes los depósitos de tipo trenzado,
coincidiendo con una reducción drástica de la vegetación terrestre (Ward et al., 2000). El
desarrollo de las coníferas y en general de la cubierta forestal evolucionó durante períodos
interglaciares cálidos en el Pleistoceno (Porter, 1983; Velichko 1984; Huntley y Webb
1988), llegando a su óptimo en Europa en el Holoceno (Wright, 1983; Velichko 1984).

Figure 1.5: Hypothesized relative influence of wood on the world’s rivers throughout
geologic time (from Montgomery et al., 2003).
Figura 1.5: Influencia relativa (hipotética) de la presencia de material leñoso en los ríos a lo
largo del tiempo geológico (Tomado y traducido de Montgomery et al., 2003).
Con la llegada del hombre y el inicio de la deforestación, la cubierta vegetal se ha visto

reducida a la mitad (Perlin, 1989); sin embargo la presencia de material leñoso en los ríos
sigue influyendo en su dinámica (Abbe y Montgomery, 2003) y por tanto en la morfología
fluvial (Gurnell y Petts, 2002; Francis et al., 2008).
En las siguientes figuras (Fig. 1.6 A, B, C y D) se muestran imágenes de ríos en

diferentes sistemas montañosos en las que se puede observar la presencia de material leñoso
y su papel en la configuración del cauce.

Figure 1.6. (A) Upstream view of Santa María stream crossing Canturral area in La Adrada
(Ávila, Gredos mountain range, Spain, January 2012). The boulder size is decimetre.
Figura 1.6. (A) Vista hacia aguas arriba de la Garganta Santa María en La Adrada a su paso
por la urbanización Canturral (Ávila, Sierra de Gredos, enero 2012). El tamaño de los
bloques es decimétrico.

Figure 1.6: (B) Woody jam with tilted trees in the flow direction of the Teverga River in
Tuñón (Asturias, Picos de Europa mountain range, October 2011).
Figura 1.6: (B) Acumulación de material leñoso entre árboles inclinados en la dirección de
la corriente en el río Teverga en las cercanías de Tuñón (Asturias, Picos de Europa, octubre
2011).

Figure 1.6: (C) Pull up trees in a plane bed reach of the College Burn River in the North of
NewCastle (England, November 2009).
Figura 1.6: (C) Árboles arrancados en la dirección de la corriente en un tramo de lecho

plano del río College Burn al Norte de NewCastle (Inglaterra, noviembre de 2009).

Figure 1.6: (D) Wood and blocks and boulders in the Kaligandaki River in the Annapurna
region (Nepal, Hymalaya, February 2012).
Figura 1.6: Restos de árboles entre los cantos y bloques en un tramo del río Kaligandaki en
la región de los Annapurna (Nepal, Himalaya, febrero 2012)
De forma general, la presencia de material leñoso en los ríos incrementa la rugosidad,

facilita la acumulación de sedimento y materia orgánica creando obstáculos en el trazado y
forma zonas de bifurcación del flujo (Keller y Swanson, 1979; Piégay y Gurnell, 1997;
Buffington y Montgomery, 1999; Andreoli et al., 2007). Aunque los obstáculos formados
por el material leñoso incrementan el tiempo de permanencia del sedimento en el río, la
ruptura de estas acumulaciones de material puede generar también un pulso repentino de
sedimento que será transportado aguas abajo (Adenlof y Wohl, 1994). El incremento local
de rugosidad en el tramo con presencia de material leñoso también facilita la acumulación
de sedimento fino y materia orgánica que proporciona nutrientes a determinados
organismos, pudiendo generar hábitats favorables para algunas especies e incrementar la
biodiversidad (Bilby y Likens, 1980; Sullivan et al., 1987). A escala de tramo de río, el
material leñoso puede alterar la morfología creando escalones, saltos, pozas (Montgomery
et al., 1996, 2003; Robinson y Beschta, 1990; Mao et al., 2008), y en zonas no confinadas la
presencia de acumulaciones de material puede incrementar la anchura del cauce

favoreciendo el desbordamiento de los bancos de orilla (Nakamura y Swanson, 1993;

Jeffires et al., 2003), propiciar la formación de barras (Wyzga y Zawiejska, 2005), y
desencadenando la migración lateral e iniciando la formación de morfologías
anastomosadas (OĆonnor et al., 2006; Montgomery y Abbe, 2006).
1.1.2. Avenidas e inundaciones en zonas montañosas
Las características que presentan las cuencas y ríos de montaña descritas

anteriormente, determinan la propagación del flujo de agua desde las laderas y por la red de
drenaje, condicionando por tanto su disposición a generar avenidas e inundaciones (Fig.
1.7).
Figure 1.7: Pattern of flood disposition in relation to altitude

(from Weingartner et al., 2003).
Figura 1.7: Influencia de determinados factores en la generación de inundaciones en
función de la altitud (Tomado y traducido de Weingartner et al., 2003).

La meteorología en estas zonas suele presentar una mayor variabilidad espacio-

temporal en comparación con zonas bajas, debido a interacciones complejas entre las
corrientes globales, de mesoescala y locales (Barry, 2008). La precipitación está fuertemente
influída por la orografía, orientación y elevación (Anders et al., 2006), pudiendo ser más
frecuente el número de eventos y registrar mayores volúmenes totales, incluso en eventos
de menor duración. El desarrollo de suelos y por tanto su espesor, de forma general,
disminuye con el aumento de altitud, lo que produce una respuesta hidrológica más rápida.
Pero también la meteorización y alteración de la roca puede resultar en la generación de
movimientos en masa como deslizamientos, flujos o caídas de rocas (Ritter et al., 1995),
altamente influenciados por las características geomecánicas, el contenido en humedad y
los ciclos hielo-deshielo.
La presencia y desarrollo de vegetación disminuye también con la altitud, por lo tanto

disminuye la intercepción y los ratios de evaporación pueden ser menores; por el contrario
su presencia puede producir un efecto de protección frente a la erosión y movilización de
material sólido. El relieve, marcado por elevadas pendientes, influye en la generación de
escorrentía y el transporte de material sólido. Como se observa en la figura 1.7, la zona más
susceptible a la generación de avenidas e inundaciones, según estos autores, y de forma
genérica, sería aquélla comprendida entre los 1.000 y 2.000 m de altitud. Aunque sin duda,
avenidas e inundaciones pueden ocurrir en caulquier punto de la red de drenaje.
Además de los parámetros anteriores, la morfometría de la cuenca influye

fuertemente en la forma de los hidrogramas generados (Horton, 1945; Morisawa, 1962;
Patton y Baker, 1976; Rodríguez-Iturbe, 1993): (i) el área de drenaje es un factor de
control en el volumen de escorrentía generado (Patton, 1988); (ii) el orden de la corriente
también se correlaciona con el caudal generado por una cuenca, aunque esta correlación se
debe implícitamente al área de la cuenca de un determinado orden, para regiones climáticas
y geológicas similares (Leopold y Miller, 1956; Patton y Baker, 1976); (iii) el relieve, por
tanto los gradientes, como se ha visto, influyen en el tiempo de concentración y en la
magnitud de los caudales punta (Strahler, 1964).
En general, estos sistemas montañosos se caracterizan por un funcionamiento

irregular, además de espacialmente como se explicó anteriormente, también variable en el
tiempo. De tal manera, que largos periodos de inactividad pueden ser interrumpidos
bruscamente por eventos repentinos de corta duración, las avenidas súbitas (flash floods).
El término flash se refiere por tanto a una respuesta rápida, caracterizada por hidrogramas
apuntados (altas pendiente en las curvas de ascenso) que alcanzan su máximo en cuestión
de horas o minutos después de intensas lluvias, dejando muy poco tiempo de alerta

(Georgakakos, 1992; Collier, 2007). Son fenómenos muy localizados espacialmente que
tienen lugar en cuencas de pocos cientos de kilómetros cuadrados o menos y con tiempos
de respuesta muy cortos (pocas horas o menos; O’Connor y Costa, 2004; Borga et al., 2007
y 2008).
Además, las avenidas en estas zonas pueden desencadenar la movilización de

cantidades variables de material sólido (sedimento y carga leñosa) modificando, como se ha
explicado en el apartado anterior, la dinámica y la morfología de los cauces (Fig. 1.8.).
Figure 1.8: Headwaters of the Tajo River after an important flood, large quantities of wood
were mobilized and deposited in jams (1920-30´). Picture taken from the collection of
Complutense University of Madrid.
Figura 1.8: Río Tajo en cabecera, tras una crecida importante, que movilizó grandes
cantidades de madera y la colocó formando una represa (años 1920-30).Fotografía de la
colección fotográfica histórica del Departamento de Geodinámica de la Universidad
Complutense de Madrid.

1.1.3. Fuentes de datos en el estudio de avenidas
Teniendo en cuenta el hecho de que en cuencas de montaña es frecuente no disponer

de datos suficientes, bien porque no existen (como en cuencas no aforadas), bien porque se
consideran no suficientemente precisos (en términos de representatividad estadística
espacio-temporal), se hace necesario emplear métodos indirectos en la caracterización de las
avenidas (Jarret, 1990; Gaume y Borga, 2008).
Uno de los primeros retos es entender la citada variabilidad espacio-temporal en el

comportamiento hidrológico de las cuencas de montaña. Los registros instrumentales
pueden ser insuficientes o inexistentes, resultando difícil emplearlos en el análisis de
frecuencia convencional. Para tratar de completar estos datos pueden emplearse funciones
de distribución de frecuencia de inundación obtenidas a partir de las series cortas,
extrapolando sus resultados a intervalos temporales más largos (Jakob y Jordan, 2001).
También es posible emplear los datos de regiones cercanas, aunque sean de menor altitud,
para aproximar y predecir su comportamiento hidrológico mediante extrapolaciones y
transposiciones; o la generación de escenarios como la máxima precipitación probable o la
máxima avenida probable (Jarret y Costa, 1988; Shulze et al., 1994). Sin embargo,
numerosos estudios demuestran que el uso de estas aproximaciones tiende a sobrestimar las
avenidas máximas en las zonas más elevadas (Baker et al., 1987; Jarret y Costa, 1988), lo
que resulta en una sobrestimación económica cuando se utilizan los datos para la
planificación y la gestión del territorio o el diseño de medidas estructurales.
A escala de tramo de río, es posible estimar indirectamente caudales y así completar

los registros disponibles. La mayor parte de los métodos existentes para estimar caudales de
forma indirecta fueron desarrollados para su uso en ríos de bajo gradiente, y por tanto su
aplicación a ríos de montaña ha sido muy debatida. Los métodos derivados de la ecuación
de Manning (Dalrymple y Benson, 1967), paso estándar (step-backwater; OĆonnor y
Webb, 1988), u otros que no requieren la definición del coeficiente de rugosidad de
Manning, como el método pendiente-área (slope-area), asumen un flujo uniforme; sin
embargo, el flujo en ríos de montaña puede ser no uniforme, no permanente y además
transportar otro tipo de material o carga sólida (Glancy y Williams, 1994). Este debate
sobre la conveniencia o no de aplicar estos métodos a ríos de montaña parte de la
observación de resaltos hidráulicos, debidos a un cambio en la morfología que produce una
transición de régimen supercrítico a subcrítico (Dingam, 1991), tal y como se explicaba en
el apartado 1.1.1. Estos resaltos hidráulicos generan turbulencia que puede disipar gran

cantidad de energía cinética (Roberson y Crowe, 1993), estabilizando el flujo. Se producen

debido a la presencia de obstáculos en el lecho, a la aparición de remolinos, a contracciones
y expansiones del flujo, etc. Y como consecuencia, la velocidad del flujo decrece pudiéndose
producir la deposición de material aguas abajo, estabilizando por tanto el resalto
(Whittaker y Jaeggi, 1982). Así, el consenso general en la comunidad científica es que el
flujo supercrítico no es capaz de persistir durante tramos mayores a 10 u 8 metros de
longitud debido a la disipación de la energía (Trieste y Jarret, 1987; Jarret y Costa, 1986).
Por tanto, es posible, bajo determinadas circunstancias y teniendo en cuenta estos factores,
emplear estas aproximaciones en la estimación indirecta de caudales en zonas de montaña
(Bathurst, 1990; Gaume y Borga, 2008; Bodoque et al., 2011).
Los datos que se han empleado para completar y/o extender los registros
instrumentales de avenidas son de diversa naturaleza, y su uso es la base de la
paleohidrología (Baker, 2002; Benito y Thorndycraft, 2005); son los llamados indicadores
de paleonivel (palaestage indicators, PSI).
A semejanza de los estudios paleohidrológicos, indicadores más efímeros, conservados

solo unos días o meses después de la ocurrencia de una avenida, pueden también ser
empleados en la reconstrucción de inundaciones. En general este tipo de evidencias se
denominan marcas de aguas altas (high water marks, HWM). En la literatura reciente, las
técnicas que emplean este tipo de marcas se denominan métodos post-evento (Gaume,
2006; Gaume y Borga, 2008; Borga et al., 2008; Marchi et al., 2009).
Las fuentes de datos de utilidad en estudios de avenidas pueden agruparse en varios

tipos:
(1) FUENTES HISTÓRICAS: basadas en documentación histórica (manuscritos

e impresos de archivos, bibliotecas y hemerotecas), marcas y placas sobre elementos
artificiales (edificaciones, vías de comunicación, obras públicas, etc.) y testimonios (orales o
audiovisuales), permiten reconstruir la extensión cubierta o la cota alcanzada por las aguas
durante una avenida. El empleo de estas fuentes de información tiene básicamente tres
fases: búsqueda y recopilación de la documentación; análisis e interpretación de la
información; e integración de los datos en el análisis de avenidas (Barriendos y Coeur,
2004). La información que puede obtenerse puede ser de tipo directo, como descripciones
de los daños de la inundación a viviendas o infraestructuras; o de tipo indirecto, como
problemas en las cosechas, etc. De esta manera es posible caracterizar los eventos por su
severidad y analizar su estacionalidad (Barnolas y Llasat, 2007; Bullón, 2011). Además,
complementándolos con otros métodos es posible trasponer estos niveles a caudales

circulantes mediante modelos hidráulicos (Lang et al., 2004) y asignarles una determinada
probabilidad de ocurrencia, introduciéndolos como datos complementarios en el análisis
estadístico de caudales procedentes del registro instrumental (Francés, 2004; Payrastre et
al., 2005; Marquínez et al., 2006; Brázdil et al., 2006).
(2) FUENTES GEOLÓGICAS: incluyen acumulaciones y depósitos de sedimentos, líneas

y marcas de erosión u otros elementos y formas geológicas y geomorfológicas. Su uso se basa
en relacionar las características de estos sedimentos y depósitos generados durante una
avenida con las características del flujo (Benito, 2002), y permiten reconstruir el caudal y
otros parámetros físicos de la inundación empleando formulas empíricas o modelos
matemáticos más complejos. Por ejemplo, mediante la relación entre tamaño y forma de los
sedimentos y la capacidad de transporte es posible inferir parámetros como la velocidad
(Baker, 1974; Costa, 1983). Para ello se suelen emplear las partículas gruesas, como cantos
o bloques, y otros depósitos (Carling, 2002). Esta aproximación ha sido muy discutida,
sobre todo porque no existe una relación unívoca entre la potencia hidráulica y estas
medidas, y además requiere información suplementaria acerca de cuándo tuvo lugar la
avenida. Otros indicadores geológicos como las marcas deposicionales (líneas de arcilla,
acumulaciones de pequeños restos orgánicos, depósitos de baja energía, etc.) o erosivas,
suelen formarse próximas al nivel máximo de inundación y pueden indicar, combinadas
con la geometría del canal, con bastante precisión la altura máxima alcanzada por las aguas
(OĆonnor et al., 1986; Wohl, 1995; Jarret et al., 1996). Un caso particular es el de los
llamados depósitos de remanso (slackwater deposits; Baker 2002; Benito et al., 2004) que
suelen permanecer en determinadas posiciones geomorfológicas tras su deposición durante
una o varias inundaciones. Estos sedimentos aparecen formando acumulaciones en lugares
de flujo inefectivo, como las zonas de desembocadura de afluentes al cauce principal,
confluencias, zonas de expansión del canal, curvas de meandros, cavidades rocosas, etc. Su
estudio permite reconocer secuencias, interpretar ambientes e identificar y reconstruir
inundaciones (Benito, 2002; Benito et al., 2003, 2004 y 2006; Benito y Thorndyncraft,
2005; Thorndycraft et al., 2004 y 2005; Ortega y Garzón, 2006; Ortega, 2007).
(3) FUENTES BOTÁNICAS: registradas en el tipo y estructura de la vegetación de ribera,

pueden dar información acerca de la dinámica de inundación (Sigafoos, 1964; Yanosky,
1982; Hupp y Osterkamp, 1996). La Dendrogeomorfología (Alestalo, 1971) es una
disciplina científica que, aprovechando fuentes de información registradas en las raíces,
troncos y ramas de los árboles ubicados en determinadas posiciones geomorfológicas
(escarpes o bancos de orilla, barras longitudinales, llanura de inundación, etc.), permiten

obtener información sobre el registro de avenidas acontecidas en esa corriente (Díez-

Herrero et al., 2008; Ballesteros et al., 2011; Díez-Herrero et al., 2012). Se basan en la
capacidad que presentan algunas especies leñosas (todas las gimnospermas y dentro de las
angiospermas, muchas dicotiledóneas) de formar tejido vivo (cambium vascular) en forma
de anillos de crecimiento, y en la relación entre la respuesta de los árboles a los eventos del
proceso fluvial (Shroder, 1978). Según las adaptaciones y condiciones de cada especie;
además el grosor de los anillos varía en función de los eventos propios de la historia vital de
cada ejemplar. Las variaciones en la estructura de la madera están relacionadas con el tipo,
forma y tamaño de las células, y con las condiciones climáticas. En ambientes climáticos
estacionales, la actividad del cambium se restringe al periodo más favorable para el
crecimiento, y el resto del año permanece en latencia, por lo que la madera presenta una
estructura cíclica de anillos anuales. Por el contrario, en ambientes climáticos estables
(como en áreas ecuatoriales) la actividad del cambium es constante y la madera no presenta
límites que permitan definir anillos. Esta capacidad de formar anillos anuales permite datar
procesos que interfieran en el crecimiento natural de la vegetación a escala anual e incluso
subanual (Stoffel y Bollschaweiller, 2008).
A nivel macroscópico la distribución de especies puede indicar la dinámica y frecuencia de
avenidas (Zimmerman, 1980; Meyer, 2001). También morfologías anómalas como fustes
inclinados, heridas o descortezados, ramas y fustes partidos o raíces expuestas proporcionan
información cuantitativa y cualitativa sobre parámetros de magnitud como la extensión o
altura de la lámina de agua (Corriell, 2002; Yanosky y Jarret, 2002; Hitz et al., 2008;
Jacoby et al., 2008). A escala microscópica, anillo de crecimiento o célula, es posible
encontrar indicadores que aporten información sobre avenidas pasadas (McAlpline, 1961;
Sigafoos, 1961; Sant George et al., 2003; Ballesteros et al., 2010 a y b).
Otra fuente de datos botánicas es la que conforma la liquenometría. La aplicación de
dataciones liquenométricas a formas y depósitos generados durante o tras las inundaciones,
parte del establecimiento de una curva de crecimiento liquenométrico, útil para la especie y
subespecie liquénica que se emplea y para la zona de estudio (Jacob et al., 2002). Para ello se
obtiene información sobre velocidades de crecimiento de las colonias de líquenes a partir de
edificios, superficies rocosas, megalitos, permitiendo remontarnos en el tiempo a lo largo de
siglos, incluso milenios. Se han aplicado las dataciones con colonias de líquenes sobre
bloques rocosos, paredes de cañones, depósitos de terrazas fluviales y paleoinundaciones.
En el primer caso permite determinar la fecha en la que los bloques fueron removilizados y
depositados, y por lo tanto de la avenida relacionada con este proceso; y además extender
las curvas estándar de potencia de la corriente a bloques de mayores tamaños (Gob et al.,
2003), de su competencia máxima durante crecidas (Gob et al., 2005). Los líquenes en las

paredes de cañones y terrazas permiten acotar las fechas de fases de incisión o de abrasión
vinculadas a las avenidas, y por lo tanto datar éstas y sus límites, a partir de los que se
infieren las magnitudes (Gregory, 1976).
El uso de todas estas fuentes de datos se basa en la premisa de que la geometría del
canal es conocida, y por tanto pueden ser combinados con métodos hidráulicos como
modelos numéricos unidimensionales o bidimensionales (Web y Jarret, 2002; Rico et al.,
2001; Benito et al., 2004; Ballesteros et al., 2011) para obtener parámetros como caudal,
altura de lámina de agua, velocidad o energía de la corriente.
(4) FUENTES HIDROMETEOROLÓGICAS: las series temporales de datos provenientes

de estaciones meteorológicas (pluviógrafos y pluviómetros), pueden ser también
complementadas con datos actuales provenientes de la nueva instrumentación
hidrometeorológica, como el radar meteorológico. La posibilidad de disponer de
estimaciones numéricas del campo de precipitación sobre amplias áreas está generando
fuertes cambios en las metodologías y en las herramientas tradicionalmente utilizadas para
el análisis de procesos hidrológicos (Battan, 1973; Sauvageot, 1988; Doviak y Zrnic, 1993;
Andrieu et al., 1997). La ventaja más importante de usar radar meteorológico es que
proporciona amplias coberturas con altas resoluciones espaciales y temporales, con
intervalos de tiempo de hasta 5 minutos y resoluciones espaciales inferiores a 1 km2. Sin
embargo, el uso de estos datos no es sencillo, ya que están sujetos a numerosas
incertidumbres y los datos deben ser previamente filtrados y corregidos (Delriu y Creutin,
1995; Krajewski y Smith, 2002).
Si se dispone de información meteorológica suficiente (ya sea de pluviógrafos o del

radar meteorológico), ésta puede ser empleada en la obtención de datos de caudales
mediante la modelización hidrometeorológica (Bell and Moore, 1998; Ogden et al., 2000;
Borga et al., 2000; Borga, 2002; Gaume et al., 2004; Ajami et al., 2004; Carpenter y
Georgakakos, 2004; Smith et al., 2004; Zanon et al., 2010; Ruiz-Villanueva et al.,
2012c), siendo particularmente extendida su aplicación en estudios en cuencas no
aforadas (Sangati et al., 2009; Bonnifait et al., 2009; Bloschl et al., 2008; Reed et al., 2007;
Bohorquez y Darby, 2008).

El objetivo de recopilar la mayor información acerca de las inundaciones es emplear el

mayor registro posible de eventos pasados en el análisis estadístico de frecuencia. Será
necesario utilizar diferentes funciones de distribución estadísticas según el tipo de dato que
se esté analizando, ya sean datos censurados, datos conocidos, datos con incertidumbre, etc.
(Stedinger y Cohn, 1986; Stedinger y Baker, 1987; Francés et al., 1991; Salas et al., 1994).
Recientemente se han empleado aproximaciones bayesianas en los análisis de frecuencia
que permiten incorporar diferentes tipos de datos con su incertidumbre asociada y dan
como resultado el ajuste a la función de frecuencia y sus intervalos de confianza (Reis and
Stedinger, 2005; Gaal et al., 2010; Gaume et al., 2010).
Todas estas fuentes de datos pueden combinarse y emplearse para tratar de entender
las variaciones en magnitud y frecuencia de avenidas en los últimos cientos o miles de años
y así tratar de inferir las causas o factores climáticos responsables de esas variaciones (Ely et
al., 1993; Thorndycraft et al., 2002).

1.2. Antecedentes
1.2.1 Antecedentes en los estudios de avenidas en zonas de

montaña
Tras la avenida súbita ocurrida en 1976 en Colorado (Estados Unidos) en el río Gran
Thompson (Big Thompson River), donde murieron 144 personas (USGS, 1979), algunos
científicos estadounidenses pusieron de manifiesto que los métodos tradicionales, usados
hasta ese momento en el estudio de grandes inundaciones en tramos de ríos medios o bajos,
no eran igual de eficaces para el estudio de avenidas en ríos de montaña (Jarret y Costa,
1983; Jarret, 1987). Como resultado, estos autores propusieron metodologías diferentes
para mejorar los estudios de avenidas. Por un lado, propusieron separar la población de
datos de caudales máximos del registro de estaciones de aforo en función de su origen
meteorológico. El objetivo era diferenciar aquellos eventos originados por lluvias intensas
de los originados por deshielo, y de esta forma entender mejor la relación causa-efecto y
frecuencia de ambos procesos (Jarrett y Waythomas, 1995).
Además analizaron los valores propuestos por otros científicos (Chow, 1959; Barnas,
1967) para cuantificar la rugosidad del lecho, y observaron que estos valores (que habían
sido propuestos principalmente en tramos medios y bajos de ríos) no eran adecuados para
ríos de montaña. Así, propusieron utilizar la siguiente ecuación para predecir los valores
más adecuados para estos ríos:
n= 0.32 S0.3 3.28 R-0.16
Donde n, es el valor de la rugosidad, S es el gradiente hidráulico o pendiente de

fricción, y R es el radio hidráulico. Esta ecuación sería de aplicación para flujos de aguas
claras, en tramos uniformes de ríos con poca vegetación de ribera con pendientes
comprendidas entre 0,02 y 0,052 m·m-1, y radio hidráulico igual 0,15 a 2,2 metros.
Estos mismos autores (Costa, 1978; Baker, 1983; Costa, 1986; Jarret, 1987)
emplearon diferentes métodos paleohidrológicos para extender y completar el registro de
aforos en cuencas de montaña. Y propusieron utilizarlos junto con los datos instrumentales
para estimar la frecuencia de avenidas en cuencas no aforadas a través de análisis regional.
De las diferentes técnicas empleadas habitualmente en paleohidrología analizaron los

resultados con el objetivo de cuantificar los posibles errores cometidos. Jarret (1987)
concluye que el uso del método área-pendiente (slope-area) lleva asociado un error de hasta
el 75%, y propone como mejor método el conocido como calado-crítico (critical-depth).
Aunque otros autores afirman que es posible obtener medidas precisas utilizando ambos
métodos de forma adecuada, llegando solo a un 10% de error en la estimación (Benson y
Dalrymple, 1967); también en esta línea, Costa (1983) demostró que las reconstrucciones
de caudales llevadas a cabo a partir del tamaño de las partículas transportadas por el flujo
llevaba asociado un 28% de error; y Webb y Jarret (2002) en una revisión posterior de
diversos métodos paleohidrológicos estimaron que el error podía llegar al 30%. Con el
objetivo de reducir las incertidumbres en las estimaciones, Williams y Costa (1988)
describen con detalle las observaciones geomorfológicas que deben tenerse en cuenta para
estudiar una inundación pasada.
Sin embargo, las incertidumbres y los errores no solo están relacionados con las
estimaciones indirectas, sino también con los datos instrumentales; Pelletier (1988) y Jarret
(1990) resaltaron las dificultades de diseñar las redes de medida en zonas de montaña y
observaron que los datos hidrometeorologicos registrados también podían llevar asociados
importantes errores. Por ejemplo, Spreafico et al. (1985, 2002) analizaron los errores
relacionados con medidas directas de caudal y velocidad de la corriente durante avenidas en
ríos de montaña, y concluyeron que éstos pueden llegar al 17%, cuando en tramos medios o
bajos de ríos estos errores pueden ser del 2-3%.
Estos errores están asociados a las características particulares de los flujos en estos ríos,
tal y como se ha explicado anteriormente. Grant et al. (1997) investigaron de forma
analítica estas características, estudiando principalmente los cambios de régimen y la
resistencia al flujo, y observaron que el régimen crítico no se conserva más que en tramos de
muy corta longitud (Trieste, 1992; Tinkler, 1997; Magirl et al., 2009). Aunque, por el
contrario, estudios más recientes, como los llevados a cabo por Comiti et al. (2009)
concluyeron que, al menos para tramos de escalón-poza es posible asumir condiciones de
flujo crítico en los estudios post-evento o paloehidrológicos.
Estudiando además los perfiles verticales de velocidad del flujo y junto con los
trabajos llevados a cabo por Marchand et al. (1984), Jarret (1990) definió estos perfiles
como no logarítmicos, con formas sinuosas, con velocidades mucho menores cerca del
lecho, debido a la presencia de bloques y cantos en el lecho, y velocidades mayores cerca de
la superficie. Años después, en 2007, Wilcox y Wohl observaron esta misma estructura

tridimensional utilizando un velocímetro acústico Doppler, y afirmaron que el flujo es

verticalmente más variable en ríos de montaña que en ríos de baja pendiente.
Los efectos que las avenidas producen en la morfología de los ríos y en el transporte
de sedimentos ha sido objeto de investigación desde trabajos pioneros como los llevados a
cabo por Wolman y Miller (1960) o Wolman y Gerson (1978); o los que se fueron
desarrollando después (Gupta, 1975, 1988; Baker, 1984; Baker and Pickup, 1987; Miller,
1990; Wohl, 1992; Grimm et al., 1995). Actualmente estos estudios se pueden agrupar en
dos grandes líneas: aquéllos que estudian la producción de sedimentos y su transporte
durante avenidas y los que analizan su distribución morfológica y su depósito. Estos
trabajos han puesto de manifiesto que los efectos geomorfológicos de una avenida no
siempre se relacionan con la magnitud de la misma. Así, inundaciones de elevada magnitud
pueden causar impactos leves (geomorfológicamente hablando), o por el contrario avenidas
de menor magnitud pueden llevar asociados importantes impactos geomorfológicos. E
incluso, para una misma avenida, los efectos pueden variar espacial y temporalmente
(Baker, 1977; Gupta, 1983; Nanson, 1986; Baker y Pickup, 1987; Osterkamp y Costa,
1987; Lewin, 1989; Pickup, 1991; Costa y O’Connor, 1995; Dury, 1973; Gomez et al.,
1995; Kochel, 1988; Magilligan et al., 1998; Wolman y Eiler, 1958; Butler y Malanson,
1993; Costa, 1974; Magilligan, 1992; Miller, 1990; Nanson, 1986). Actualmente, estos
estudios se han visto potenciados por el uso cada vez mas frecuente de la tecnología LIDAR
(Cavalli et al., 2008; Trevisani et al., 2009; Vianello et al., 2009; David et al., 2010).
Ya en 1987, Lisle observó que la principal fuente de producción de sedimentos en

una cuenca se encontraba en las zonas de cabecera o subcuencas de montaña; y que la
producción desde estas zonas influía en la morfodinámica de los tramos medios y bajos
(Richards y Lane, 1997). Además esta producción de sedimento se ve fuertemente
influenciada por otros procesos como movimientos de laderas y flujos de derrubios (Sidle et
al., 1985). Fueron de nuevo Jarret y otros los primeros en observar la problemática al
aplicar las ecuaciones fundamentales del transporte de sedimentos en ríos de montaña
(Jarrett, 1984; Reid et al., 1985; Adenlof y Wohl, 1994; Zimmerman y Church, 2001).
Estas limitaciones se resolvieron desarrollando formulación específica para el transporte de
sedimento en ríos de elevada pendiente (Parker et al., 1982; Diplas, 1987; Bathurst et al.,
1987; Takahasi, 1987; Rickemann, 1990; Rickemann et al., 2006). Sin embargo, los
estudios llevados a cabo en canales (flumes) por diversos investigadores (Shvidchenko y
Pender, 2000; Mueller et al., 2005; Lenzi et al., 2006b; Lamb et al., 2008) revelaron que
existe una menor movilidad de material en estos ríos. Esto podría parecer contradictorio
(menor movilidad de material en zonas de alta pendiente), sin embargo fue explicado por el

papel de la turbulencia en la disipación de la energía del flujo (Carollo et al., 2005), y por el
hecho de que la movilización se produce a partir de unos umbrales de movimiento
vinculados a eventos de baja frecuencia (como se ha explicado en el epígrafe 1.1.1). Por
tanto, la movilidad de material se incrementa considerablemente durante las avenidas
(Lenzi et al., 2006; Mao y Lenzi, 2007; Mao et al., 2008; Turowski et al., 2009; Yager,
2006) y puede ser determinante en las consecuencias de éstas, junto con el otro
componente habitual en los ríos de montaña, el material leñoso.
Si bien el estudio de la influencia de presencia de carga leñosa en la morfodinámica y

en la ecología de los ríos ha sido extensamente explorado (Montgomery, 2003;
Montgomery y Piegay, 2003; Sedell et al., 1988; Wyga et al., 2003), no ha sido así en
cuanto a su papel durante las avenidas. Algunos autores ya en la década de los 80 analizaron
el efecto de material leñoso en la hidráulica o su movilización en los ríos (Bilby, 1984;
Lienkaemper y Swanson, 1987; Berg et al., 1998; Gippel, 1995; Jacobsen et al., 1999;
Warren y Kraft, 2008; Wohl y Goode, 2008). También fue estudiado el transporte de
material leñoso mediante ensayos de laboratorio en flumes, siendo uno de los pioneros el
trabajo desarrollado por Braudrick y Grant (2000), o los llevados a cabo por Haga et al.
(2002), Curran y Wohl (2003), o Bocchiola et al. (2006). Aunque se ha demostrado que la
presencia de este material puede amplificar los efectos negativos de una avenida (Mao y
Comiti, 2010), especialmente en secciones críticas como puentes u otras estructuras
(Bezzola et al. 2004; Lange y Bezzola 2006; Schmocker y Hager, 2010), pocos estudios de
avenidas lo tienen en cuenta y sólo en los últimos años se han presentado algunas
metodologías para incorporar este tipo de carga en los análisis de avenidas e inundaciones
(Merten et al., 2010; Mazzorana et al., 2010a; Mazzorana et al., 2010b).
Por otro lado, el análisis hidrometeorológico a escala de cuenca también ha sido

frecuentemente objeto de estudio (Ogden et al., 2000; Belmonte et al., 2001; Gaume et al.,
2002), y en los últimos años se ha centrado en la investigación de los factores
meteorológicos desencadenantes, en la estimación de caudales en cuencas no aforadas y en
la mejora de sistemas de alerta temprana de avenidas (Costa y Jarrett, 2008; Borga et al.,
2008; Gaume y Borga, 2008; Brauer et al., 2011; Norbiato et al., 2008; Versini et al., 2010).
Los modelos hidrológicos requieren gran cantidad de datos de partida (Brath et al., 2004),
y los resultados pueden ser muy sensibles a los parámetros que se tengan en cuenta en el
modelo (Geza et al., 2009). Por esta razón los modelos hidrológicos desarrollados en
cuencas de baja pendiente podrán ser utilizados para el estudio de cuencas de montaña si se
tienen en cuenta todos los procesos presentes en estas zonas; por ejemplo, si corresponde,
incluyendo los procesos de acumulación y fusión de nieve (Fontaine et al., 2002).

Sobre todo a partir del desarrollo de la tecnología de teledetección y satélite se han

podido obtener datos de vegetación, humedad de suelo, lluvia, nieve u otras variables de
utilidad en los modelos hidrológicos (Rango et al., 2003; Shaban et al., 2004; Lakshmi et
al., 2005; Zuhak et al., 2007; Brown et al., 2008). Especialmente el desarrollo del radar
meteorológico y la consecuente disponibilidad de datos de precipitación con suficiente
detalle, ha hecho que numerosos estudios se hayan centrado en la simulación hidrológica de
avenidas. Los trabajos que incorporan los datos radar llevan asociado un esfuerzo
importante en cuanto a la corrección de los mismos (Andrieu et al., 1995; Delrieu et al.,
1997; Vignal et al., 1999; Nicol et al., 2004); en particular para su uso en zonas de montaña
(Delrieu et al 1997; Serrar et al. 1999), pero cuando se dispone de estos datos precisos de
precipitación, incluso el uso de un modelo hidrológico simple puede ser suficiente para
reconstruir los hidrogramas de avenidas (Borga et al., 2008).
Por último, en relación a los análisis de riesgo por avenidas, el parámetro que suele
usarse más frecuentemente como indicador de los daños potenciales es el calado o altura de
lámina de agua (Kaplan y Garrick, 1981, Mileti, 1999). Como observaron Grigg y Helweg
(1975), en edificios o estructuras de similares características, una inundación con un calado
determinado producirá daños o pérdidas económicas similares en ellos. Por tanto, las
pérdidas directas causadas por una avenida dependerán, entre otros factores, del calado y
del uso que tenga un determinado edificio o estructura (Smith, 1994; Penning-Rowsell et
al., 1994; USACE, 1996, Merz et al., 2004). Además las características propias de los
edificios o estructuras también serán importantes en cuanto a los daños que se puedan
producir (Kreibich et al., 2009).
Sin embrago, en zonas de montaña, siguiendo las recomendaciones de Abt et al.

(1989) o Marco (1994), la velocidad de la corriente debe también tenerse en consideración.
1.2.2 Antecedentes en España
Las características orográficas y climáticas de nuestro país propician la ocurrencia de

episodios extremos de inundación de forma recurrente; así lo ponen de manifiesto algunos
de los eventos ocurridos en las últimas décadas, como el de septiembre de 1962 en la cuenca
del Besós con casi 800 víctimas, el de 1973 en Granada, Almería y Murcia con cerca de 300

fallecidos, la rotura del embalse de Tous en 1982 con 38 victimas, las inundaciones del País
Vasco en 1983 con 40 muertos, los episodios ocurridos en la vertiente mediterránea de
1989 con 42 fallecidos, o la catástrofe del camping de Biescas en 1996 con 86 victimas
mortales (Francés et al., 2000; Ayala-Carcedo, 2002; Fig. 1.9). Recientemente, habría que
mencionar las inundaciones ocurridas en Asturias en febrero de 2012, o las avenidas que
afectaron a Murcia, Almería, Málaga, Valencia y Aragón en octubre de ese mismo año, con
al menos una docena de fallecidos y más de 120 millones de euros en pérdidas económicas.
Figure 1.9: Sediment and wood deposits after the 1996 flash flood in the Arás stream in
Biescas (Spain), Las Nieves Camp Site. 86 people died (picture taken by Carlos Sancho and
courtesy of Virginia Rubio).
Figure 1.9: Depósito de sedimentos y de madera en el barranco de Arás en Biescas,

Camping Las Nieves, tras la avenida de 1996. Fallecieron 86 personas (fotografía de Carlos
Sancho y cedida por Virginia Rubio).
Todos estos eventos tuvieron en común su carácter de avenida súbita, mostrando

que en los últimos 50 años el 94% de las víctimas en desastres por inundación, se han

producido por inundaciones súbitas en pequeñas cuencas (Ayala-Carcedo, 2002;

Camarasa, 2006). Como consecuencia se produjo en España un cambio en la percepción y
el estudio de los riesgos naturales. En lo que se refiere a las medidas de prevención, a partir
de la década de 1980 se comenzaron a promover cada vez más las actuaciones de
ordenación territorial, la gestión de las emergencias y la educación para el riesgo, frente a la
utilización casi exclusiva de medidas estructurales (Ayala-Carcedo, 1999; Olcina, 2004,
2006 y 2007).
En este apartado se recogen algunos de los grupos de investigación que han

estudiado las avenidas súbitas (tanto en zonas de montaña como en las ramblas del litoral
mediterráneo) desde diversas perspectivas y empleando para su análisis diferentes fuentes
de datos y/o métodos; tal y como se ha explicado en los apartados previos.
Desde el punto de vista de la reconstrucción de avenidas pasadas, utilizando

métodos paleohidrológicos y geológicos, cabe destacar los trabajos realizados por Benito
(CSIC), García Ruiz (IPE-CSIC) y Gutiérrez (UZ) en Biescas o en las cuencas del Tajo,
Guadalhorce y Segura; Rico (IPE-CSIC) en Montardit (Pirineos); o, Garzón-Heydt
(UCM) y Ortega (UAM) en el río Rivillas en Badajoz y en la cuenca del Guadiana; entre
otros.
Desde el punto de vista geomorfológico, los trabajos realizados por Garzón-Heydt y

Garrote o Uribelarrea (UCM) en ríos del centro-sur peninsular; Marquínez y Fernández
(INDUROT-UNIOVI) en ríos asturianos; o Díez-Herrero (IGME) en la cuenca del
Alberche, estuvieron enfocados en el análisis de las formas y depósitos asociados a las
avenidas e inundaciones, así como en los efectos y cambios morfológicos ocasionados por
las mismas.
La modelización hidráulica e hidrológica de avenidas e inundaciones han sido las

principales líneas de investigación de Puertas, Peña y Cea (GEAMA-UDC); Dolz, Gómez,
Sánchez-Juni y Bladé (FLUMEN-UPC); Martín-Vide (UPC); Garrote de Marcos y
Mediero (UPM), Fernández-Yuste y Martínez (UPM); o, Marco, Francés, Albentosa y
Eguíbar (UPV).
En lo que respecta al estudio de la carga sólida y el transporte de sedimentos, las

investigaciones realizadas por Sala (UB), Batalla, Balasch y Vericat (ULI) se centran en la
caracterización de la dinámica del sedimento utilizando la simulación hidrológica e
hidráulica, así como nuevas tecnologías como el LIDAR; o los trabajos realizados por

Bateman y Hurliman (UPC-Grupo GITS) en los que se utiliza además la modelización

física en laboratorio; o por Gallart (CSIC), Pastor (UPM, CEDEX), entre otros.
Otros grupos de investigación han empleado las fuentes de datos histórico-

documentales para caracterizar y reconstruir eventos históricos. Algunos de estos trabajos
son los realizados por Álvarez, Bustamante y Pascual (DGPCE), Pérez (UA), Bullón
(UAM), Barriendos y Martín-Vide (UB), Potenciano (UCM, DGPCE). También los
trabajos realizados por Fernández, Menéndez y Marquínez (INDUROT-UNIOVI) han
combinado estas fuentes de datos documentales con encuestas a la población para recopilar
información sobre eventos pasados.
La integración de estos datos de eventos no registrados instrumentalmente en los

análisis de frecuencia ha sido una de las líneas de investigación llevadas a cabo por Francés y
Botero (UPV).
Desde una perspectiva de las causas meteorológicas, o los cambios meteorológicos y/o
climáticos asociados a inundaciones se pueden citar los trabajos realizados por Llasat y
Barnolas (UB-SMC), o Rodrigo (UAL), Morales y Ortega (UVA), entre otros. Y con el
mismo objetivo, es decir, analizar las causas meteorológicas, pero utilizando para ello datos
de Radar meteorológico y modelización hidrológica, cabe destacar el grupo de investigación
de Sempere-Torres, Berenguer y Velasco (CRAHI-UPC).
Con un enfoque no sólo centrado en el estudio de avenidas, sino en el

comportamiento hidrológico-forestal de las cuencas de montaña se han desarrollado los
trabajos de Mintegui, González y Robredo (UPM). También han estado centrados en la
modelización hidrológica y estudio de las precipitaciones los estudios realizados por Ferrer
(CHJ), Ferrer (ULE), Salas y Carrero (UPM).
Y por último, las investigaciones enfocadas en los análisis de peligrosidad y riesgo en

las que se integran varias de estas técnicas y fuentes de datos, son los llevados a cabo por
Jiménez, García, Estela, Quintas (CEDEX); Ayala-Carcedo, Durán, Díez-Herrero y
Ballesteros (IGME); Benito (CSIC); Olcina (UA); Furdada, Vilaplana y Marqués (UB);
Cendrero, Bonachea y Díaz de Teherán (UC); Bodoque (UCLM); Brusi (UG); Perles
(UMA); Camarasa y Segura (UV); entre otros.
Además de los trabajos desarrollados por estos y otros grupos de investigación, existen
en la legislación española numerosos instrumentos de ordenación en el ámbito de las
inundaciones (normativa estatal, regional o local). Sin embargo, no hay una normativa

específica para las inundaciones en zonas montañosas (también denominadas de dinámica

torrencial). Esto quiere decir que la problemática del estudio de avenidas en zonas de
montaña no ha sido abordada en nuestro país de una manera sistemática, y por tanto, los
estudios llevados a cabo hasta la fecha varían tanto en el enfoque, como en la escala en la
que han sido llevados a cabo.
Con la entrada en vigor de la Directiva 2007/60/CE del Parlamento Europeo y del

Consejo de 23 en octubre de 2007, y su Real Decreto de transposición (903/2010), relativa
a la evaluación y gestión de los riesgos de inundación, las zonas de montaña quedan
incluidas en la legislación de forma específica ya que en su definición de inundación la
normativa dice textualmente el anegamiento temporal de terrenos que no están
normalmente cubiertos por agua incluyendo las inundaciones ocasionadas por torrentes de
montaña (Artículo 2, Capítulo 1).
Sin embargo, en ningún caso en los desarrollos normativos se especifica cómo deben
abordarse estos estudios de peligrosidad y/o riesgo en zonas de montaña. A este respecto, se
publicó en 2008 el libro Mapas de peligrosidad por avenidas e inundaciones. Guía para su
elaboración de la serie Riesgos Geológicos del IGME (Díez-Herrero et al., 2008) donde se
recogen los métodos y criterios para la elaboración de diferentes mapas de peligrosidad por
avenidas e inundaciones. En el año 2007, el actual Ministerio de Agricultura, Alimentación
y Medio Ambiente (MAGRAMA, antes Ministerio de Medio Ambiente, y Medio Rural y
Marino) puso en funcionamiento el Sistema Nacional de Cartografía de Zonas Inundables
(SNCZI) como un instrumento de apoyo a la gestión del espacio fluvial, la prevención de
riesgos, la planificación territorial y la transparencia administrativa. Y en 2011 se publicó la
Guía Metodológica para el desarrollo del Sistema Nacional de Cartografía de Zonas
Inundables (MAGRAMA, 2011) que recoge recomendaciones técnicas para la
determinación del Dominio Público Hidráulico y las zonas inundables de acuerdo con el
RD 9/2008 que modificó el Reglamento del Dominio Público Hidráulico y el RD
903/2010 en lo relativo a los mapas de peligrosidad de inundación. En ambos libros se hace
referencia a las zonas montañosas (como sistemas torrenciales) y sus particularidades, que
ponen de manifiesto la necesidad de aplicar métodos diferentes a los habitualmente
empleados en el medio fluvial. Particularmente en lo que se refiere a la estimación de la
magnitud y frecuencia de eventos, se señala como mayor inconveniente la carencia de datos
de aforos y precipitaciones en la propia cuenca, así como la influencia de otros procesos,
principalmente flujos tractivos y mecanismos de transporte en masa. De esta forma, y según
la guía del MAGRAMA, en la zonificación de la peligrosidad en zonas de montaña, a
diferencia de las zonas fluviales, no se plantea la asignación de recurrencias concretas sino

una clasificación cualitativa, definiendo niveles de peligrosidad torrencial alta, media, baja e
indiferenciada; esta clasificación, no exenta de subjetividad, puede resultar en diferentes
fuentes de incertidumbre que afectan a la previsibilidad de los patrones de riesgo (Hoffman
y Hammonds, 1994; Paté-Cornell, 1996).

1.3. Planteamiento de la problemática
La variabilidad espacio-temporal que caracteriza a las avenidas súbitas en zonas de

montaña tiene como consecuencia que estos fenómenos sean rara vez registrados en las
redes instrumentales convencionales de pluviómetros y estaciones de aforo (Creutin y
Borga, 2003; Sivapalan et al., 2003; Anagnostou et al., 2006), que por otro lado suelen estar
instaladas en las zonas bajas y en los ríos de la red fluvial principal. Aunque la Organización
Mundial de Meteorología recomienda que las redes instrumentales sean lo más densas
posible, actualmente no cubren de forma eficiente las zonas montañosas (Braun et al.,
1998; Buytaert et al., 2006). Así, el estudio de avenidas en estas zonas se presenta como un
reto tanto científico como social. Desde el punto de vista social, las avenidas súbitas son el
tipo de inundación relacionado con un mayor número de víctimas mortales y pérdidas
económicas en Europa (Gaume y Borga, 2008; Marchi et al., 2010); durante el periodo
1950-2006 aproximadamente el 40% de las muertes relacionadas con inundaciones en
Europa fueron causadas por avenidas de este tipo (Barredo, 2009). Desde el punto de vista
científico, estos eventos a menudo revelan aspectos del comportamiento hidrológico que,
en general, son difíciles de predecir (por su carácter repentino), o no han sido observados
previamente y por tanto son difíciles de caracterizar (Smith et al., 1996, 2005; Delrieu et
al., 2005; Archer et al., 2007; Braud et al., 2010). Esto explica que el estudio de avenidas
deba ser abordado desde una perspectiva de evento y su monitorización requiera datos de
elevada resolución espacio-temporal. Además estos estudios deberían llevar a responder
preguntas como: ¿con qué frecuencia puede ocurrir una avenida de una magnitud
determinada?, para así contribuir al conocimiento general del comportamiento de eventos
extremos como éstos (Borga et al., 2008).
Hay que tener en cuenta además, que el cambio socioeconómico acontecido en las
últimas décadas ha llevado a un incremento en el desarrollo de los entornos montañosos y
regiones ribereñas (Comiti et al., 2008). Este cambio se refleja en un uso cada vez mayor de
las zonas de montaña con respecto al turismo y a procesos de urbanización. Como
consecuencia, se pueden desencadenar alteraciones en los procesos geomorfológicos
(Hooke, 1999; Cendrero et al., 2006). Pero además, se produce un aumento de los bienes
tangibles e intangibles (debido a la presión antrópica) expuestos a los desastres naturales.
Esto, junto con posibles cambios en los regímenes fluviales, incluyendo los impactos
humanos sobre estos sistemas (Briggs et al., 2006), o los efectos del cambio climático sobre
las tasas de precipitación y los regímenes de escorrentía (Schmocker-Fackel y Naef, 2010),

puede suponer un aumento significativo del riesgo (Mitchell, 2003; Benito, 2006: Fush et
al., 2005).
Al mismo tiempo, la percepción social del riesgo en zonas donde los procesos
catastróficos tienen asociada una baja frecuencia también puede suponer un problema
añadido. Siendo la situación ideal la no ocupación de estas áreas, una vez han sido
ocupadas, se hace necesario estudiar los procesos en profundidad, para mejorar el
conocimiento de los mecanismos de generación y sus consecuencias, y con ello poder
prevenir o mitigar los daños.

1.4. Hipótesis de partida y Objetivos
Las graves consecuencias de las avenidas ocurridas en los últimos años en diferentes
ambientes montañosos en Europa (Eslovenia, Austria, Italia, Suiza, Polonia, España),
ponen de manifiesto la importancia del estudio de estos procesos. En concreto, durante
estos episodios de avenidas, los efectos en forma de cambios de morfología de los cauces y la
reducción del área de la sección transversal debido a la obstrucción por material
transportado tuvieron como consecuencia una amplificación significativa en la magnitud
del proceso (Diehl, 1997; Lyn et al., 2007; Comiti et al., 2008; Mao y Comiti, 2010;
Mazzorana et al., 2011). Además, quedó demostrado que en algunos casos, los mapas de
peligrosidad existentes resultaron no ser tan fiables como se esperaba (Bezzola y Hegg,
2007). Con el objetivo de mejorar los análisis de riesgos y para apoyar la toma de decisiones
de los gestores, los análisis de inundación en estas zonas de montaña necesitan ser
reformulados para examinar estas cuestiones (Girod y Mieg, 2008) y además deben ser
capaces de hacer frente y tomar en consideración las diferentes fuentes de incertidumbre
(Paté-Cornell, 1996; Merz et al., 2008).
De esta forma este trabajo de investigación comienza sobre la base de la siguiente

hipótesis de partida: la mejora del conocimiento de estos fenómenos de avenidas
supondrá un avance de cara a su prevención y la mitigación de sus daños. Para tratar de
abordar esta necesidad, la mejora de estos análisis, es necesario usar de forma integrada
diferentes fuentes de datos y desarrollar nuevas metodologías que permitan incluir en los
análisis procesos como el transporte de material leñoso, e incorporar una estimación de las
incertidumbres asociadas.
Como se ha visto en la Introducción (Capítulo 1 de esta Memoria), estas zonas

tienen unas características específicas que condicionan los análisis de peligrosidad y riesgo.
Una de las más importantes, es que suelen carecer de datos provenientes del registro
instrumental o, si existen, son limitados. Y otra, son las interacciones entre distintos
procesos geomorfológicos acentuados por la alta energía de la corriente y las elevadas tasas
de transporte de material sólido (sedimentos y restos de vegetación). Así, un evento de estas
características puede dar lugar a respuestas hidrológicas complejas, cambios bruscos en la
morfología y/o reducción de la capacidad hidráulica del canal debido al transporte y
deposición de materiales como detritos leñosos, incrementando la magnitud de una
inundación. Por una u otra causa, las evaluaciones de peligrosidad y riesgo de avenidas en
estas zonas pueden estar acompañadas de una elevada incertidumbre, y es reduciendo esta

incertidumbre como también se puede mejorar el análisis de riesgo. Con este

planteamiento, el objetivo general de este trabajo de investigación es, proponer y
desarrollar nuevas metodologías en la evaluación del riesgo por avenidas en zonas
montañosas.
Teniendo en cuenta lo expuesto anteriormente, se han planteado varios objetivos

específicos, que pretendían cubrir todas las fases necesarias hasta llegar a la evaluación del
riesgo.
 El primero de estos objetivos específicos, es recopilar la máxima información posible

acerca de las inundaciones pasadas ocurridas en la zona de estudio (tanto registradas
instrumentalmente como no registradas), combinando diferentes fuentes de datos
(instrumentales, históricas o documentales y dendrogeomorfológicas).
 El segundo objetivo específico es la caracterización de los eventos de avenida

recopilados (causas, estacionalidad, severidad…) y la incorporación de esta información
al análisis de frecuencia con el fin de reducir la incertidumbre asociada a la estimación
de los cuantiles.
 El tercer objetivo específico es reconstruir la magnitud de eventos de avenida no

registrados instrumentalmente, analizando su incertidumbre debida al abundante
transporte de carga flotante. Además, se plantea analizar la influencia de este tipo de
carga en el patrón espacio-temporal de la peligrosidad.
 Puesta de manifiesto la importancia de la carga leñosa transportada durante las avenidas

en estas zonas, el cuarto objetivo, es proponer una nueva metodología que permita
incorporar su análisis a las evaluaciones de peligrosidad y riesgo por avenidas. Cabe
suponer que este cuarto objetivo, el más ambicioso de la investigación, llevará asociados
a su vez varios pasos u objetivos complementarios:
o El primer paso será analizar los factores y procesos que determinan la

incorporación de material leñoso a los cauces. Primero, cuantificando el
material potencialmente disponible y así identificando aquellas cuencas donde
pueda suponer un peligro potencial desde el punto de vista de su transporte
durante avenidas e inundaciones.

o El siguiente paso será desarrollar un modelo matemático que permita la

simulación hidrodinámica de material leñoso en ríos.
o Además, este modelo será aplicado en una de las zonas de campo, con el objetivo
de simular el transporte de material leñoso y su interacción con puntos
conflictivos de los cauces, como puentes.
 Y por tanto, el quinto objetivo será integrar todo el proceso en un análisis de riesgo
desde una perspectiva probabilista que incorpore las incertidumbres asociadas a todas
las etapas del análisis (análisis de frecuencia, modelación hidrodinámica, curvas calado-
daño, etc.), e integre la carga leñosa mediante la generación de escenarios.
 El último objetivo (sexto) de esta investigación será sintetizar todos los análisis
anteriores y, a partir de una discusión de las ventajas y limitaciones de cada fuente de
datos y metodologías proponer una recomendaciones para la mejora de las evaluaciones
de peligrosidad y riesgo por avenidas en cuencas de montaña.


2. MATERIALES Y MÉTODOS
2.1. Análisis territorial
2.1.1 Caracterización geomorfológica
2.1.2. Estudio de la vegetación
2.2. Análisis dendrogeomorfológico
2.3. Búsqueda de fuentes histórico-documentales
2.4. Análisis estadísticos
2.4.1. Estadística descriptiva

2.4.2. Estadística de valores extremos: análisis de
frecuencia
2.4.3. Geoestadística: simulación de precipitación
2.4.4. Estadística bayesiana: Monte Carlo y Cadenas de
Markov
2.5. Modelización hidrometeorológica de avenidas
2.5.1. Métodos empíricos
2.5.2. Modelos hidrometeorológicos semi-distribuidos



2.6. Modelización hidrodinámica y estimación
de caudales
2.6.1. Modelización unidimensional
2.6.2. Modelización bidimensional
2.7. Estudio de la incorporación de carga
leñosa a los ríos
2.8. Simulación hidrodinámica del transporte de

detritos leñosos en ríos
2.9. Análisis de riesgo por avenidas con

perspectiva probabilista incorporando el
transporte de material leñoso

2. Materiales y Métodos
Tal y como se ha expuesto en la introducción y en los objetivos planteados en el

capítulo anterior, este trabajo se abordó como una investigación multidisciplinar, en la que
se incluyen aspectos geológicos, geomorfológicos, botánicos, hidrológicos, hidráulicos y
estadísticos, entre otros. Estos aspectos han requerido tanto trabajo de campo, como de
gabinete o laboratorio, tal y como se verá más adelante.
Hay que destacar que los límites entre estos grupos de métodos son en ocasiones
difusos, puesto que enlazan o se integran unos con otros conformando a su vez una
metodología más compleja. En cada uno de los artículos (apartados) que forman el capítulo
de resultados (Capítulo 4 de esta Memoria) se detalla la metodología específica, las
integraciones o combinaciones de métodos, y los desarrollos metodológicos llevados a cabo
para la consecución de los objetivos. En este capítulo, se describen de forma genérica, en
diferentes secciones (nueve apartados), las distintas disciplinas metodológicas seguidas y
desarrolladas a lo largo de todo el trabajo de investigación (figura 2.1).

44
TESIS DOCTO A
C
Figure 2.1:
2 1: Methodological flowchart
flowchart. Numbers correspond with sections in this chapter.
chapter
ORAL/ PhD THESIS (2012)

VIRGINIA
45 A RUIZ-VILLANUEEVA
Figura 2.1: Esquema metodológico seguido a lo largo del trabajo de investigación. Los números se corresponden con los
nueve apartados
d dde este capítulo.
l
TESIS DOCCTORAL/ PhD THESIS (2012)

2.1. Análisis territorial
2.1.1. Caracterización geomorfológica
La caracterización geomorfológica de las cuencas estudiadas se realizó mediante

métodos clásicos de cartografía y descripción de formas y depósitos fluviales (Pedraza et al.,
1996; Ortega y Garzón, 2006; Santos et al., 2006; Gutiérrez-Elorza, 2008; Martín-Serrano
et al., 2008). Para ello se recopiló la cartografía básica y temática existente como cartografía
geológica y geomorfológica de la serie MAGNA (IGME). Se utilizaron técnicas de
fotointerpretación de pares estereoscópicos de fotografías aéreas verticales (distintas fechas
y escalas), complementadas con la interpretación de la cartografía básica (morfometría,
hidrografía, toponimia...) y temática (mapas geológico, geomorfológico, formaciones
superficiales, procesos activos...). Basándose en todo lo anterior la caracterización
geomorfológica se centró en la delimitación de unidades fisiográficas homogéneas (Martín-
Duque, 2000) y sus elementos característicos (Fig. 2.2).
Figure 2.2: Physiographic units delineation in one of the study sites.
Figura 2.2: Ejemplo de delimitación de unidades fisiográficas homogéneas en el análisis

geomorfológico en una de las zonas de estudio.

Además se realizaron recorridos dde campo para p compro obar la carttografía, intterpretar
y caraacterizar zon
nas problem máticas, evaaluar el grad
do de activiidad de los procesos activos,
a y
determminar la pootencia y oriigen de las fformacionees superficiaales, con esppecial incid
dencia en
aquélllas de origen
n fluvial-colluvial
A escala dee cuenca se definieron los princip pales parámetros o índdices morfom
métricos
relacioonados conn la hidrologgía de aveniddas (resumiidos en la figura 2.3).
Figuure 2.3: (a) Main

M types of morphom ometric indiices for the characteriza
c zation of thee shape,
siize and heigght of the caatchment ba
basin and whhich are useeful in floodd hydrology;
y; (b)
Morprphometric parameters
p s of the drain
inage netwoork which affect
af flood hhydrology. (Taken
(
from DDíez-Herrerro , 2009).
VIRGINIA
A RUIZ-VILLANUEEVA 47 TESIS DOCCTORAL/ PhD THESIS (2012)
CAPÍTULO /CHAPTER
C 2
Figurra 2.3: (a) Ínndices morffométricos ppara la carac

acterización de la formaa, el tamañoo o la
alltura de la cuenca
cu hidroográfica, úti
tiles en hidroología de avvenidas; (b)) Parámetroos
morfom
ométricos dee la red de drenaje
d con iincidencia ene hidrologgía de avenid idas. (Extraíído de
Díez-HHerrero , 2008).
20
A 48 TESIS DOCTO
Se realizaron también análisis de detalle de las morfologías que conforman los

sistemas aluviales y fluviales (véase, por ejemplo, el apartado de Resultados 4.1). Así,
siguiendo diversas clasificaciones, como las incluidas en Sánchez-Moya y Sopeña (2010)
basadas en Church y Jones (1982), Bluck (1979) o Bridge (2003), se cartografiaron y
clasificaron los tipos de barras y sus diferentes partes (Fig. 2.4).
Figure 2.4: (a) Unit bars features found in gravel-bed channels; (b) Bar types and different
parts. cb: head bar; lb: tail bar; cp: main channel; cs: secondary channel; cl: lateral channel.
(From Church and Jones, 1982 and Ramos and Friend, 1982).
Figura 2.4: (a) Tipos de barras en sistemas aluviales de gravas; (b) Esquema de tipos de
barras y sus zonas. cb: cabeza, lb: cola de barra; cp: canal principal o exterior; cs: canal
secundario o interior; cl: canales laterales. (Extraído de Church y Jones, 1982 y Ramos y
Friend, 1982).

El análisis detallado de tamaños de grano, facies u otras formas menores no fue objeto
de este estudio. No obstante, sí se pudo relacionar cualitativamente las meso-y macro-
formas con la energía de la corriente, análogamente a la propuesta de Allen (1983).
2.1.2. Estudio de la vegetación y usos del suelo
El análisis de las especies vegetales consistió en la caracterización de la vegetación

utilizando inventarios previos (cartografía forestal, usos del suelo, etc.) o mediante la
realización de cartografía de la vegetación (a través de la fotointerpretación de ortofotos y
fotografías aéreas verticales), siempre apoyados con trabajos de campo. Así, los parámetros
a caracterizar fueron las especies presentes, su estado vegetal (reforestado, bosque maduro,
etc.), su densidad (distribución espacial) y las características de los individuos (altura y
diámetro).
La caracterización de los usos de suelo se realizó utilizando la cartografía disponible

como la del proyecto CORINE (Coordination of Information on the Environment) Land
Cover a escala 1:100.000 de la Agencia Europea del Medio Ambiente; la cartografía SIOSE
(Sistema de Información sobre Ocupación del Suelo de España) a escala 1:25.000 del
Instituto Geográfico Nacional; o el Mapa de Cultivos y Aprovechamientos del Ministerio
de Agricultura a escala 1:50.000. La caracterización final se complementó con trabajo de
campo.
Todo ello, tanto geomorfología, como vegetación y otros mapas, como usos y tipos de
suelo fueron integrados en un sistema de información geográfica (ArcGis 9.3; ESRI, 2011),
lo que permitió su análisis espacial conjunto.

2.2. Análisis dendrogeomorfológico
El análisis dendrogeomorfológico lleva asociado varias etapas de trabajo tanto de

campo como de gabinete o laboratorio (Stoffel and Bollschwailler, 2008).
El trabajo de campo comenzó con la selección de los ejemplares arbóreos a estudiar.

Dicha selección se basó en criterios de caracteres externos susceptibles de evidenciar la
interferencia entre el ejemplar y la dinámica torrencial. Estas evidencias externas pueden ser
(Díez-Herrero et al., 2008, 2012): (i) descortezados y marcas de impacto; (ii) crecimientos
de ramas en candelabro; (iii) pérdida de copas y partes culminantes; (iv) erosiones,
bifurcaciones e inclinaciones en los troncos; (v) raíces expuestas; entre otras (tabla 2.1 y
figura 2.5).
También se muestrearon ejemplares no afectados por avenidas, que sirven de

comparación para los patrones de crecimiento ordinarios. De este modo es posible
diferenciar anomalías debidas a variabilidad climatológica, plagas, epidemias, etc.
Cada ejemplar muestreado fue convenientemente localizado (mediante receptor

GPS) y siglado (mediante etiquetado unívoco), apuntándose todos los caracteres del mismo
(especie, subespecie, dimensiones, estado...) y del medio circundante (posición
geomorfológica, vegetación circundante, etc.). Posteriormente se realizó el muestreo según
la metodología clásica (Grissino-Mayer, 2003; Fig. 2.6) utilizando una barrena Pressler
estándar de 400 mm de longitud y 5,5 mm de diámetro interior, que permite obtener un
testigo cilíndrico de toda la secuencia de anillos de crecimiento formados desde la corteza
hasta el interior del tronco. Dependiendo del tipo de evidencia a muestrear, la obtención de
testigos puede variar. Por ejemplo, en el caso del muestreo de descortezados, normalmente
es necesario la obtención de más de una muestra. Estos testigos deben sacarse lo más
cercanos a la herida que sea posible, pero allí donde el tejido cambial no haya sido dañado.
Por otro lado, en el caso de árboles inclinados para detectar una señal correspondiente a la
madera de reacción, los testigos deberán obtenerse a la altura del fuste correspondiente con
la máxima inclinación. Además en el caso particular del río Arenal (ver apartado 4.2 de
Resultados) las labores de tala y limpieza de la vegetación de ribera llevadas a cabo por la
Confederación Hidrológica del Tajo permitieron obtener secciones completas de los fustes.
Por tanto, en ningún caso se taló ningún ejemplar específicamente para este trabajo de
investigación.

Table 2.1: Dendrogeomorphic evidence classification (Díez-Herrero , 2009 and 2012)

Tabla 2.1: Clasificación de evidencias dendrogeomorfológicas externas (tomado de Díez-

Herrero , 2008 y 2012)


Figure 2.5: Dendrogeomorphological evidence useful in the study of torrential floods. 1.)
“candelabrum” growths; 2) Tilted with feet tipped over; 3) Decapitated; 4) Impacted by
sediment load; 5) Branches torn off; 6) Grazing by other falling boles; 7) Erosion on the
trunk; 8) Trunk bends and angles; 9) Sudden narrowing of trunk; 10) Bifurcations; 11)
Bends and angles in branches; 12) Regrowth from buried trunks; 13) Exposed roots with
stripped bark and eroded surface; 14) Roots aloft without contact with substratum; 15)
New roots from buried trunks. (Díez-Herrero , 2009 and 2012).
Figura 2.5: Tipologías de los principales indicios dendrogeomorfológicos macroscópicos

individuales útiles en el estudio de las avenidas torrenciales. 1) Crecimientos en candelabro;
2) Inclinados y pies volcados; 3) Decapitados; 4) Impactos por la carga sólida; 5) Arranques
de ramas; 6) Rozamientos por caídas de otros fustes; 7) Erosiones en el tronco; 8) Codos y
ángulos del fuste; 9) Estrechamientos bruscos del fuste; 10) Bifurcaciones; 11) Codos y
ángulos en las ramas; 12) Rebrotes desde troncos enterrados; 13) Raíces expuestas con
descortezados y con erosiones; 14) Raíces flotantes sin contacto con el substrato; 15)
Nuevas raíces desde troncos enterrados. (Díez-Herrero , 2008 y 2012).

CAPÍTULO /CHAPTER
C 2
Figuure 2.6: Field

ld work: (a)) Tree samplpling; (b) Using
Us of increement boreer; (c) obtain
ined
sampples; (d) scarrred tree and
nd stumps; (e)
( obtained
d cross-sectiions.
Figuraa 2.6: Tareass de campo:: (a) muestre

reo de ejempplares; (b) uso
u de la barrrena; (c) teestigos
obteni
nidos en el muestreo;
m (dd) Descortez
ezados y toco
cones dejadoos por las taareas de talaa de la
Connfederación
n Hidrográfifica del Tajoo; (e) seccion
nes completetas.
A 56 TESIS DOCTO
Las muestras seguidamente fueron adecuadamente preparadas para su estudio en

laboratorio, siendo preciso su cortado, pulido, limpieza y secado (Wildford, 2005). El
análisis de las muestras y la obtención de series dendrocronológicas datadas para el tramo
estudiado del río Pelayo (ver apartado 4.1 de Resultados) se llevó a cabo en el laboratorio de
dendrogeomorfología Dendrolab.ch de la Facultad de Ciencias Geológicas de la
Universidad de Berna (Suiza) durante una estancia de investigación de 3 meses. Además, en
ese tiempo se adquirieron y reforzaron los conocimientos de estas técnicas en el
“DendroSeminar block course 2009” celebrado en la Universidad de Fribourg (Suiza), con
una duración de 30 h.
Para realizar las mediciones de anchura de los anillos se empleó una mesa de medida
semiautomática LINTAB asociada al programa TSAP Win (Time Series Analysis and
Presentation; Rinntech, 2010) y acoplada a un ordenador, que permite una precisión en la
medida de hasta 0,01 mm. Otros equipos que se utilizaron fueron: lupa binocular y fuente
de luz fría (Fig. 2.7).
La datación de anillos consistió en la transformación de las series de incrementos de

anchura de crecimiento en secuencias dendrocronológicas, mediante la asignación precisa
de fechas que asegure que cada valor se corresponde con el año en que fue formado el anillo
de crecimiento.
A partir de las series de anillos sincronizados se puede proceder a la datación de los

elementos asociados a fenómenos geomorfológicos (anomalías de crecimiento, growth
disturbances, como heridas, tejido calloso, maderas de reacción, reducción o aumento del
crecimiento, etc.) y a la obtención de un listado o base de datos de eventos de avenida con
fechas asignadas.

58 A
Figure 2.7: Laboratory analysis: (a) samples preparation; (b) tree ring width measurements; (c) tree-ring width curves; (d)
samples analysis; (e) disk showing several external and internal injuries; (f) sample showing reaction wood.
TESIS DOCTO
Figura 2.7: Trabajo de laboratorio: (a) preparación de muestras; (b) análisis y medida de anchura de anillos de crecimiento; (c)
curvas de crecimiento obtenidas en el análisis; (d) examen visual de secciones; (e) sección con diversas heridas externas e
C
internas; (f) muestra con madera de reacción.

reacción

2.3. Búsqueda de fuentes histórico-documentales
En lo referente a las avenidas históricas, se consultó la bibliografía publicada sobre la

zona de estudio al respecto (por ejemplo los trabajos publicados por Díez-Herrero,
Bodoque, Carrasco, Pedraza, Morales y Ortega, Benito, Barriendos, etc.), y se recopiló la
información disponible a partir de archivos históricos municipales, Archivo Histórico
Nacional, noticias de inundaciones de las hemerotecas digitales de diversos periódicos
como el ABC, La Vanguardia, El País, El Diario de Ávila y otras publicaciones (Fig. 2.8);
también se recopilaron las series de caudales máximos de aforo de la Confederación
Hidrográfica del Duero y del Tajo; se consultó el Catálogo Nacional de Inundaciones
Históricas publicado por la Dirección General de Protección Civil y Emergencias, etc. De
todo ello se realizó una síntesis para elaborar una base de datos de los eventos recopilados
(ver apartado 4.2 de Resultados). En esta base de datos se almacenó la máxima información
posible de cada evento, incluyendo la fecha exacta, los daños ocasionados, la información
acerca de las causas meteorológicas, etc.
De esta manera es posible inferir las causas de las avenidas, caracterizar los eventos
por su severidad, en función de los daños recogidos en la documentación, así como analizar
su estacionalidad.
La transformación de los datos cualitativos de la documentación a valores numéricos

es una práctica habitual en los estudios de climatología histórica o paleohidrología (Martin-
Vide y Barriendos, 1995; Glaser et al, 1999; Glaser, 2001; Barriendos y Coeur, 2004; Llasat
et al, 2004; Brázdil et al, 2005 y 2010). Siguiendo la metodología propuesta por Barriendos
y Coeur (2004) y Bullón (2011) se obtuvo información sobre el tipo, la intensidad y la
duración de los acontecimientos recopilados. En primer lugar, se asignó una fecha de
ocurrencia a cada evento, ya que aunque los documentos normalmente tienen una fecha,
los acontecimientos descritos en los mismos pueden referirse a diferentes escalas de tiempo
(algunos días, semanas o meses antes).

Figure 2.8: (a) Example of a news item featuring a historical flood in the study site (taken
from ABC newspaper); (b) 1982 flood plaque placed on a memorial statue in Luis Manuel
Lopez camp site in memorian of a fatality.
Figura 2.8: (a) Ejemplo de noticia en la que se describe un evento de avenida en la zona
de estudio (extraído del periódico ABC). (b) placa ubicada sobre un busto
conmemorativo en el camping Luis Manuel López en recuerdo a una víctima de una
avenida en 1982.

A continuación se clasificaron en función del tipo, intensidad y duración en las

siguientes categorías:
Tipo: 1= sólo se proporciona información sobre las inundaciones, 2= se proporciona

información sobre las inundaciones y las precipitaciones relacionadas, 3= sólo se
describen los datos de precipitación.
Duración: 1= un día o pocos, 2= varios días a una semana; 3= una semana o más, 0=
duración desconocida.
Intensidad: 1= poco o ningún daño (inundaciones ordinarias), 2= se reportan daños a

infraestructuras aunque sin destrucción total (inundaciones extraordinarias), 3=
destrucción de infraestructuras permanentes (inundaciones catastróficas), 0=
intensidad desconocida.
2.4. Análisis estadísticos
El análisis estadístico ha estado muy presente en todas las etapas de la investigación,

empleándose estadística descriptiva clásica, geoestadística o estadística bayesiana. Los
análisis se han llevado a cabo con ayuda de programas y lenguajes estadísticos como MS
Excel, S-GeMS, R o SPSS. Con el fin de adquirir y reforzar los conocimientos necesarios se
realizó el curso de Experto Universitario “Métodos avanzados de estadística aplicada” de la
Universidad Nacional a Distancia (UNED), con 25 créditos ECTS (250 h). Algunas
referencias bibliográficas generales consultadas han sido García Pérez (2008, 2010, 2011a,
2011b).
2.4.1. Estadística descriptiva
En primer lugar, se utilizó análisis estadístico puramente descriptivo para ordenar,

resumir y clasificar los datos con objeto de tener una visión más precisa y conjunta de las
observaciones, intentando descubrir de esta manera posibles relaciones entre los datos. Para
ello se emplearon medidas de tendencia central (promedios, medianas o modas), medidas
de dispersión (varianzas, desviación típica o coeficientes de variación), medidas de
asimetría, etc. Además la representación gráfica también facilitó el análisis y la presentación
de los datos en forma de histogramas, gráficos de sectores, etc.

También se requirió la aplicación de diferentes técnicas de contraste de hipótesis

(paramétricos y no paramétricos). Los test paramétricos se basan en la observación de una o
varias muestras, suponiendo un modelo probabilístico para concluir una regla o test de
hipótesis, de manera que si fuera cierta la hipótesis nula, la muestra debería tener una
determinada distribución de probabilidad. Entre los test no paramétricos se utilizaron el
test de Kolmogorof-Smirnov para contrastar la bondad de ajuste (por ejemplo en los
análisis de frecuencia o en la simulación estocástica realizada en el apartado de Resultados
4.2), y el test de Wilcoxon para comparar dos muestras independientes (véase su aplicación
para la determinación de eventos de avenida en los análisis dendrogeomorfológicos,
apartado de Resultados 4.1).
Con objeto de estudiar la posible relación entre los datos y su variación se utilizaron
diversos análisis: El análisis de componentes principales consiste en describir la variación
producida por la observación de p variables aleatorias, en términos de un conjunto de
nuevas variables correlacionadas entre sí, cada una de las cuales es combinación lineal de las
variables originales. El análisis de correspondencias se utilizó para representar posibles
asociaciones existentes entre variables categóricas, con objeto de establecer patrones o
estructuras en los datos obtenidos con su observación. También con el propósito de
clasificar las observaciones de manera que los datos de estos grupos sean lo más similares
posible y los grupos lo más diferentes posible, se llevó a cabo el análisis de conglomerados
(cluster en la nomenclatura anglosajona) obteniéndose así una clasificación de los datos
multivariante.
Estos tres tipos de análisis (componentes principales, correspondencias y cluster) son

de tipo exploratorio y complementario de otros análisis de tipo inferencial como los
modelos de regresión (ver aplicación en el apartado 4.4 de Resultados). Con objeto de
estudiar la posible relación entre dos variables aleatorias se emplearon análisis de regresión y
correlación lineal, log-lineal y logística. En todos los casos se trata de explicar una variable
llamada dependiente en función de otras n variables denominadas independientes o
covariables suponiendo una relación que puede ser lineal o de otro tipo.

2.4.2. Estadística de valores extremos: análisis de frecuencia
Una vez que se dispone de las fechas de los eventos de avenida y de la estimación de
sus caudales, además de las series anuales de caudales máximos diarios para cada estación de
aforos, se procedió a su análisis estadístico con objeto de estimar la distribución de
frecuencias (por ejemplo en los apartados 4.2 y 4.3 de Resultados). Se considera que los
datos de estas series son independientes e idénticamente distribuidos y, en consecuencia,
los caudales máximos se comportan como una variable aleatoria.
La definición del modelo estadístico implica la elección del tipo de distribución, el

método de ajuste de parámetros y cuantiles, y el procedimiento de utilización de datos
locales y regionales (Cunnane, 1987). En los años treinta, Hazen (1930) comenzó el uso
sistemático de funciones de distribución estadísticas para el ajuste de los datos de frecuencia
de avenidas. Las funciones de distribución más utilizadas (Kite, 1988; Stedinger et al.,
1993; Robson y Reed, 1999; Francés, 2004) son:
 Distribuciones de valores extremos: valores extremos generalizados (GEV),

incluyendo como casos particulares Gumbel (EVI), Frechet (EVII) y Weibull
(EVIII), y valores extremos de dos componentes (TCEV).
 Distribuciones basadas en la función Gamma de 2 ó 3 parámetros en el espacio
real o logarítmico: Pearson tipo III (PIII), Log-Pearson tipo III (LPIII) y sus
casos particulares log-normal de dos parámetros y distribución Pareto
generalizada (GPD).
De entre los métodos de estimación de cuantiles tres son los más utilizados:
 Momentos en el espacio real o logarítmico. No utiliza de forma exhaustiva toda

la información de la muestra.
 Máxima Verosimilitud. Habitualmente es el más eficiente (menor varianza en
los parámetros estimados), pero es muy sensible a la elección del modelo de
distribución.
 Momentos probabilísticamente ponderados. Confiere mayor peso a los
mayores valores de la serie, resultando valores más conservadores.
La función GEV es la más recomendada (NERC, 1975). Por tanto es la que más se ha
empleado en este trabajo de investigación.

La validez o bondad del ajuste puede comprobarse mediante el test de Kolmogorov-

Smirnov, o la prueba de 2 sobre funciones de frecuencia relativa o acumulada.
2.4.3. Geoestadística: simulación de la variabilidad espacial

de la precipitación
La Geoestadística se empleó en este trabajo para describir cuantitativamente variables

naturales (precipitación) distribuidas en el espacio y el tiempo. Para completar los
conocimientos de esta rama de la estadística se realizó el curso “Aplicaciones prácticas
Geoestadísticas en Ciencias de la Tierra. Manejo del software gratuito SGEMS”, celebrado
en el Instituto Geológico y Minero de España (IGME) con 20 h de duración.
Estas técnicas proporcionan un método para cuantificar el efecto de la localización

espacial en la variabilidad de la muestra (Krige 1941; Matheron, 1962). Se basa en la
premisa de que los puntos más cercanos estarán más relacionados que los puntos más
lejanos. El modelo geoestadístico considera ìnteracciones´ entre las observaciones, de
modo que toma en cuenta sus dependencias espaciales para prever el valor en un sitio no
muestreado. Para que la descripción anterior sea operatoria, es necesario poder inferir toda
o parte de la distribución espacial a partir del conjunto de muestras disponibles. En general,
se hacen dos hipótesis simplificadoras:
‐ estacionaridad: la distribución espacial es invariante por traslación en el espacio.

‐ ergodicidad: se puede aproximar las esperanzas matemáticas (promedio sobre las
realizaciones) por un promedio en el espacio.
Se puede decir que cualquier variable distribuida en el espacio es regionalizada. La

geoestadística es la aplicación de la teoría de las variables regionalizadas a la estimación de
procesos o fenómenos en el espacio a partir de la adopción razonada de la hipótesis más
adecuada acerca de su variabilidad. Dependiendo de sus características se determina la
función semivariograma o variograma (Fig.2.9).
Para obtener la distribución espacial de la precipitación se realizaron simulaciones

estocásticas (ver apartado 4.3 de rapartadoesultados) de modo que además se puede
obtener una medida de la incertidumbre. Estas simulaciones se implementaron en la
herramienta geoestadística Stanford Geostatistical Modeling Software (S-GeMS; Remy et

al., 2009). Además se utilizó la topografía como variable secundaria para las simulaciones
secuenciales gaussianas siguiendo la propuesta de Goovaerts (2000).
Figure 2.9: Variogram and variogram model (modified from Guardiola, 2009).
Figura 2.9: Variograma y modelo de variograma (modificado y traducido de Guardiola,

2009).
2.4.4. Estadística bayesiana: Monte Carlo y Cadenas de

Markov
En los últimos años se han aplicado métodos de inferencia bayesiana en el análisis de

frecuencia de inundación (Reis y Stedinger, 2005). La metodología bayesiana consta de tres
pasos fundamentales:
1. Especificar un modelo de probabilidad (función de distribución) que incluya

algún tipo de conocimiento previo (a priori) sobre los parámetros del modelo
dado.

2. Actualizar el conocimiento previo sobre los parámetros desconocidos

condicionando el modelo de probabilidad (función de distribución) a los datos
observados.
3. Evaluar el ajuste del modelo a los datos y la sensibilidad de las conclusiones a
cambios en los supuestos del modelo.
La diferencia fundamental entre la estadística clásica (frecuentista) y la bayesiana es el

concepto de probabilidad. Para la estadística clásica es un concepto objetivo, que se
encuentra en la naturaleza, mientras que para la estadística bayesiana se encuentra en el
observador, siendo así un concepto subjetivo. De este modo, en estadística clásica sólo se
toma como fuente de información las muestras obtenidas suponiendo, para los desarrollos
matemáticos, que se puede tomar tamaños límite de las mismas. Sin embargo, en el caso
bayesiano, además de la muestra también juega un papel fundamental la información previa
o la historia que se posee relativa a los fenómenos que se tratan de modelizar.
El método de Monte Carlo permite determinar esa función de distribución y/o algún
aspecto de la misma (media, varianza) generando n muestras y evaluando repetidamente el
estadístico sobre ellas hasta aproximar su distribución mediante la distribución empírica de
valores obtenidos. Para generar estas n muestras se puede utilizar la técnica denominada
Cadenas de Markov. En la teoría de la probabilidad, se conoce como cadena de Markov a
un tipo especial de proceso estocástico discreto en el que la probabilidad de que ocurra un
evento depende del evento inmediatamente anterior.
De esta forma obtenemos la función de distribución y los intervalos de confianza de

la misma, pero además, estos métodos permiten incorporar a las series instrumentales datos
de otra naturaleza, como inundaciones históricas reconstruidas con un cierto grado de
incertidumbre. En este trabajo se siguió la metodología propuesta por Gaal et al. (2010) y
Gaume et al. (2010) y se empleó el código desarrollado en lenguaje R por Viglione (2009)
especifico para análisis de frecuencia de inundaciones (ver apartado 4.2 de Resultados). De
este modo se tomó este código libre como base para investigar cómo incluir los datos de
avenidas pasadas no registrados instrumentalmente en el análisis de frecuencia, prestando
especial atención a los efectos que su inclusión produce en la estimación de los cuantiles y
su incertidumbre asociada.

2.5. Modelización hidrometeorológica de avenidas
2.5.1. Métodos empíricos: método racional modificado
Uno de los métodos más sencillos que se utilizaron en este trabajo para transformar la
lluvia en escorrentía fue el método racional, en su versión adaptada a la península Ibérica
(Témez, 1987 y 1991; Ferrer, 1993), pero dándole un enfoque estocástico (ver Capítulo
4.2 de Resultados). Este método empírico se basa en la transformación de precipitación con
intensidad I (que empieza en forma instantánea y continúa de forma indefinida) a una
escorrentía que continuará hasta que se alcance el tiempo de concentración (Tc), momento
en el cual toda la cuenca está contribuyendo al flujo. En ese momento de equilibrio se
alcanzará el caudal punta (Qp); el volumen entrante al sistema será el producto de la
intensidad de precipitación por el área de la cuenca (I·A), y se ve reducido por un
coeficiente de escorrentía (C, entre 0 y 1) que representa la proporción de agua retenida en
las abstracciones iniciales. Las unidades de las variables se expresan en el sistema
norteamericano, por lo que su conversión al Sistema Internacional (Q, m3 s-1; I, mm h-1; A,
km2) precisa dividir el producto entre 3,6, resultando como fórmula general:
=( ∙ ∙ ∙ )/3,6 [1]
Donde K es un factor corrector de la simultaneidad de la precipitación:

.
=1+ .
[2]
Y el tiempo de concentración (Tc) se calculó:
= 0,3 ∙ ( ,
)^0,76 [3]
Donde L es la longitud de la corriente y J la pendiente longitudinal.
Y la intensidad de precipitación se calculó siguiendo la propuesta de Salas y Fernández

(2007):
. .
= ( ) .
[4]
Donde Id es la intensidad diaria y I1 la horaria.

El coeficiente de escorrentía integra por tanto todos los aspectos relativos a la

intercepción, infiltración y evapotranspiración, siendo unos de los parámetros
fundamentales en hidrología (Marchi et al., 2010). Estos procesos dependen del tipo y uso
de suelos y de las condiciones antecedentes de humedad. Al utilizar este método para
reconstruir avenidas pasadas (Rico et al., 2001) estas propiedades pueden no ser conocidas.
Como consecuencia, en este trabajo se trató a esta variable C estocásticamente (mediante
simulaciones de Monte Carlo) y el resto de parámetros fueron calculados de forma
determinista.
2.5.2. Modelos hidrometeorológicos semi-distribuidos
Con objeto de caracterizar la respuesta hidrológica de las cuencas y obtener

hidrogramas completos, se realizó una modelación hidrometeorológica semidistribuida
(ver apartado 4.3 de Resultados). Con el fin de implementar los modelos y estudiar
detenidamente la validez y bondad de los datos de entrada, se hizo especial hincapié en
calibrar los parámetros más sensibles del modelo y validar los resultados. Para ello, se contó
con una red instrumental de pluviográfos y limnímetros con registro continuo (Fig. 2.10),
que permitieron recoger una batería de eventos suficiente como para realizar la calibración
y validación de los modelos, apoyado todo ello con observaciones de campo. Además se
emplearon las herramientas de optimización y calibración de las propias aplicaciones.
Para reforzar conocimientos en esta rama de la ciencia, así como en análisis post
evento y manejo de datos de radar meteorológico en modelización hidrológica distribuida
se realizó una estancia breve de investigación de 4 meses en la Facultad de Ciencias de la
Universidad de Padova (Italia); además se realizó el curso "Model building, inference and
hypothesis testing in conceptual hydrological modelling" organizado e impartido en el
Gabriel Lippmann Institute de Luxemburgo, con una duración de 40 horas.
La modelización hidrometeorológica se basó en el uso de modelos hidrológicos semi

distribuidos basados en el método de transformación lluvia-escorrentía del hidrograma
unitario. Para este fin, se utilizó el software libre HEC-HMS 3.5 (Hydrologic Engineering
Center-Hydrologic Modelling System; USACE, 2010) y su conexión con Sistemas de
Información Geográfica, HEC-GeoHMS 4.2 (USACE, 2009). Este modelo permite el uso
de diferentes métodos para el cálculo de las pérdidas iniciales, así como la transformación
de la lluvia en escorrentía. Para la caracterización de la lluvia, se han utilizado las series de

precipitaciones procedentes de la red instrumental instalada a tal efecto además de datos

procedentes de la Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET).
El modelo de cuenca se construyó basado en un modelo digital de elevaciones de 5 m

de tamaño de píxel y en las características fisiográficas de la cuenca y se definieron los
principales parámetros morfológicos de los cauces. Para la simulación del proceso de
pérdidas por abstracciones iniciales; se empleó el método del Número de Curva
desarrollado por el Soil Conservation Service (McCuen, 1982; SCS, 1986). Este modelo
asume la hipótesis conceptual de que la escorrentía acumulada en una porción de la cuenca
es igual a la infiltración acumulada (como la precipitación bruta acumulada, una vez
descontada la fracción necesaria para que se produzca el encharcamiento) entre la máxima
infiltración acumulada que puede producirse, es decir:
= [5]
siendo S la máxima infiltración potencial, F la infiltración real después del

encharcamiento, P la precipitación, Q la escorrentía superficial y P0 el umbral de
escorrentía, es decir, la cantidad de precipitación necesaria para que el suelo se encharque y
la escorrentía superficial aparezca. Los estudios empíricos realizados por el SCS
permitieron relacionar la máxima infiltración potencial con un parámetro de referencia,
denominado número de curva (CN) cuyos valores están tabulados entre 0 y 100. Por tanto,
además de los parámetros fisiográficos, este método requiere la definición del número de
curva que se basa en la pendiente, los tipos y usos del suelo. Para definirlo se siguió la
metodología propuesta por Ferrer et al. (1995 y 1998).

70
Figure 2.10: Instrumental network installed and applied in the study sites; (a) rain gauges; (b) stream gauges; (c)
measuring flow velocity.
Figura 2.10: Instrumentación instalada y utilizada en varios puntos de la región de estudio; (a) pluviógrafos de
cazoletas; (b) limnímetros de presión; (c) medida de velocidad del flujo con molinete.

La parte de precipitación que no infiltra y pasa por tanto a ser escorrentía directa
genera el hidrograma de flujo superficial. Para calcular el hidrograma se utilizó el método
del hidrograma unitario del Soil Conservation Service, basado en el parámetro Tlag:
= /1,67 [6]
Donde Tc es el tiempo de concentración definido en [3], y Tlag es el tiempo de

desfase o de respuesta definido como el tiempo que transcurre dese el centroide del
hietograma de lluvia neta hasta que se alcanza el caudal punta del hidrograma. Este
parámetro depende de las características geomorfológicas de la cuenca, como la longitud
hidráulica, pendiente de la cuenca, densidad de drenaje, etc.
Para la propagación y tránsito del hidrograma por el cauce se empleó el método de

Muskinghum-Cunge (Cunge, 1969; Ponce, 1978) que queda definido por dos parámetros
hidráulicos k y X:
=∆ / [7]
= ∙ (1 − ) [8]
∙ ∙ ∙∆
Donde Δx es la longitud del tramo de cauce, c es la celeridad o velocidad media, S0 es

la pendiente media del cauce, Q es el caudal y B es la anchura del cauce.
Aunque en procesos de avenidas la proporción entre el caudal superficial y

subsuperficial puede considerarse despreciable, para añadir al flujo superficial el flujo base
(subsuperficial) se empleó el método de recesión exponencial (Barnes, 1939).
Además el modelo requiere unas especificaciones de control. Estas especificaciones

son el incremento temporal de cálculo y los tiempos de inicio y fin de la simulación.
También hay que establecer las condiciones antecedentes de humedad del suelo.

2.6. Modelización hidrodinámica y estimación de

caudales
Como se describía en la primera parte de esta Memoria, existen diversos métodos

para estimar caudales de forma indirecta que pueden ser utilizados en zonas de montaña.
Esta estimación de caudales se basó en marcas de paleo-nivel (HWM y PSIs) y empleando
la geometría del río y modelos o principios hidráulicos se transformaron las alturas medidas
a partir de estas marcas en caudales (ver el apartado 4.3 de Resultados). En la figura 2.11 se
muestra las marcas empleadas en una de las zonas de estudio. La figura 2.12 recoge las
principales evidencias o marcas que suelen encontrarse en los ríos de montaña y son útiles
en la estimación de caudales Una revisión de estos métodos aplicados a la reconstrucción de
inundaciones se puede encontrar en Lane (1998) y Lang et al. (2004).
Figure 2.11: Evidence and marks found and analysed in one of the study sites. (picture
taken by Andrés Díez)
Figura 2.11: Marcas y evidencias encontradas y analizadas en una de las zonas de estudio
(fotografía de Andrés Díez).

73
Figure 2.12: Places where deposits and markings useful for palaeohydrological purposes are often found in mountain
basins (based on Jarret , 2002, and Benito and Thorndycraft, 2004).HWM means high water mark.
Figura 2.12: Esquema ilustrativo de los depósitos, marcas y evidencias de utilidad paleohidrológica en zonas de montaña
(adaptado de Jarret , 2002 y Benito y Thorndycraft, 2004).HWM significa marca de aguas altas.

2.6.1. Modelización unidimensional
Se puede simplificar el flujo del agua como un flujo unidimensional asumiendo que la
profundidad y velocidad sólo varían en la dirección longitudinal del canal, cuyo eje se
supone aproximadamente una línea recta, y la velocidad es constante en cualquier punto de
una sección transversal. En este supuesto, el movimiento del agua está gobernado por las
ecuaciones de Saint-Venant unidimensionales: continuidad y conservación de la cantidad
de movimiento:
Ecuación de la continuidad,
A·v/x + B·v·y/x + B·y/t = 0 [9]
Ecuación para la conservación de la cantidad de movimiento,
v/t + v·v/x + g·y/x + g·z/x + g·Sf = 0 [10]
siendo: A, área para la sección transversal al flujo; v, velocidad media; x, abscisa de

posición (situación en el conducto de la sección considerada); B, anchura de la lámina de
agua para un calado y; y, calado (espesor de la lámina); t, tiempo; g, aceleración debida a la
fuerza gravitatoria; z, cota para la base del conducto; Sf , pendiente de fricción, que es
función de la velocidad, rugosidad y radio hidráulico.
El flujo uniforme tiene lugar cuando la pendiente del lecho (S0) es igual a la pendiente
de fricción (Sf) y todos los demás términos de la ecuación de la conservación de la cantidad
de movimiento se consideran despreciables (slope-convenyance method). En general, se
sobreentiende que además el flujo es permanente, con lo cual la línea de energía, la
superficie de la lámina de agua y el lecho son líneas paralelas. Partiendo de esta
simplificación metodológica, derivada de la ecuación de Manning-Strickler, se relaciona la
velocidad con parámetros morfométricos y con un índice de rugosidad para los distintos
materiales del lecho para estimar los caudales:
/
= ∙ / [11]
siendo: V, velocidad media de la corriente; R, radio hidráulico; S, pendiente para la

línea de energía (coincidente con la del lecho); n, coeficiente de rugosidad.

También se emplearon ecuaciones empíricas basadas en la competencia del flujo. Este

tipo de ecuaciones relacionan el tipo de partículas sedimentarias (tamaño y forma del
sedimento) con las condiciones hidráulicas necesarias para su transporte y sedimentación
(velocidad de la corriente). La ecuación utilizada fue propuesta por Costa (1983):
,
= 0,18 ∙ [12]
Donde V es la velocidad media del flujo, y D es el diámetro medio de los mayores

tamaños de partículas.
Aunque sin duda, la mayor exactitud en el cálculo del caudal y velocidad de la

corriente en modelización unidimensional se consigue con los métodos de paso estándar
(step-backwater; Chow, 1959; Shearman, 1976), al tener en cuenta las variaciones y
pérdidas de energía del flujo de agua. En este método se basa el modelo HEC-RAS 4.1
(USACE, 2010) empleado en el desarrollo de este trabajo para la reconstrucción del
proceso de obstrucción de un puente debido al material leñoso (ver apartado 4.3 de
Resultados). Este tipo de modelos utilizan esquemas numéricos relativamente simples pero
eficaces; pueden considerar cambios de régimen, cauces con geometrías complejas y con
llanuras de inundación, y singularidades tales como azudes, puentes, pasos bajo vía, etc. En
concreto, HEC-RAS funciona con un esquema en diferencias finitas implícitas de los
cuatro puntos.
2.6.2. Modelización bidimensional
Durante un evento de avenida es habitual que el flujo del agua no quede restringido al
canal principal, sino que el caudal desborde ocupando las márgenes y llanura de
inundación. En estas condiciones el flujo debe considerarse bidimensional y el modelo a
utilizar debe resolver las ecuaciones de aguas someras promediadas en profundidad,
también conocidas como 2D Shallow Water Equations (2D-SWE) o ecuaciones de Saint
Venant bidimensionales, éstas son:

h  (uh)  (vh)
Continuidad:   0
t x y [13]
u u u h
Dinámica: u v  g  Rx
t x y x [14]
v v v h
u v  g  Ry
t x y y [15]
En este trabajo se ha utilizado el software libre Iber (Corestein et al., 2010; Bladé et
al., 2012) para la simulación hidrodinámica en dos de las zonas de estudio (ver apartados
4.5, 4.6 y 4.7 de Resultados).
Iber es un modelo numérico de simulación de flujo turbulento en lámina libre en

régimen no-permanente, y de procesos medioambientales en hidráulica fluvial desarrollado
por el Instituto FLUMEN (www.iberaula.es) de la Universidad Politécnica de Catalunya,
la Universidad de la Coruña, el Centro Internacional de Métodos Numéricos en Ingeniería
(CIMNE) y el CEDEX. El rango de aplicación de Iber abarca la hidrodinámica fluvial, la
simulación de rotura de presas, la evaluación de zonas inundables, el cálculo de transporte
de sedimentos, y el flujo de marea en estuarios. Todos los módulos trabajan sobre una malla
no estructurada de volúmenes finitos.
Prácticamente la totalidad de flujos en lámina libre son turbulentos. En cualquier río,

y en particular en los ríos de montaña, pueden observarse pequeños remolinos que
aparecen y desaparecen con un movimiento aparentemente caótico, mostrando la
complejidad del movimiento turbulento. Iber incorpora diferentes métodos para incluir
esta turbulencia en el cálculo (Cea, 2005).
El modelo funciona estableciendo unas condiciones de contorno de entrada y salida,

condiciones internas como las estructuras hidráulicas que pueda haber en el cauce (puentes,
vertederos, azudes...) y parámetros distribuidos, como el coeficiente de rugosidad.
Además es necesario disponer de los modelos digitales de elevaciones (MDE) y la

geometría y topografía de detalle de los tramos. Éstos se obtuvieron mediante
levantamientos topográficos y medidas con estación total y GPS diferencial (Fig. 2.13).
Para adquirir conocimientos en este ámbito se realizó el curso “Herramientas topográficas
aplicadas a la cartografía de peligrosidad geológica: Estación Total y Sistemas de

Posicionamiento Global en modo diferencial” organizado e impartido por el IGME, de 25

h de duración, y se contó con la colaboración en campo de topógrafos profesionales.
Figure 2.13: Topographical survey in Arenal River: (a) Total station: (b) GPS.
Figura 2.13: Levantamiento topográfico en el Río Arenal: (a) estación total (b) GPS.

Una vez obtenida la geometría se genera la malla de cálculo. Para ello se divide el
dominio de estudio en celdas de tamaño relativamente pequeño (Fig. 2.14).
Los modelos trataron de ser calibrados allí donde se disponía de marcas y medidas,
especialmente en los parámetros de rugosidad, y se sometieron a diferentes análisis de
sensibilidad, tanto de las condiciones de contorno como de la rugosidad y variaciones
geométricas.
Figure 2.14: (a) Digital elevation model of the Arenal River crossing Arenas de San Pedro
village; (b) Calculation mesh created for Cabrera stream.
Figura 2.14: (a) Modelo digital d elevaciones del río Arenal a su paso por Arenas de San
Pedro. (b) Malla de cálculo generada para un tramo del arroyo Cabrera.

2.7. Estudio de la incorporación de la carga leñosa

a los ríos
Para conocer la dinámica de incorporación de la carga leñosa a los ríos es necesario

establecer las áreas contribuyentes que pueden aportar el material. Además, se requiere un
conocimiento detallado de la tipología y distribución de la vegetación. De este modo, es
posible estimar el volumen de madera potencialmente disponible. Para ello, se desarrolló
una metodología basada en sistemas de información geográfica (SIG). El análisis se centró
en los tres procesos principales de incorporación de material leñoso a los cauces (May and
Gresswell, 2003; Swanson, 2003): deslizamientos, erosión de los bancos de orilla y
transporte fluvial durante inundaciones (ver apartado 4.4 de Resultados).
Los mecanismos de incorporación de madera al cauce relacionados con estos procesos

geomorfológicos repentinos (deslizamientos o avenidas) pueden provocar que en un solo
evento lleguen al río gran cantidad de troncos y ramas. Es este tipo de `llegada´ la que suele
generar más problemas cuando esta cantidad de carga leñosa se pone en movimiento en una
inundación. A este tipo de transporte se le denomina `congestionado´ (del término
anglosajón congested; Braudrick et al., 1997) y es el que más importancia tiene desde el
punto de vista de la peligrosidad.
Además de analizar las zonas susceptibles a sufrir estos procesos, para delimitar las
áreas contribuyentes, estas zonas deben estar conectadas con el cauce (McDade et al., 1990;
Robison y Beschta, 1990; Van Sickle y Gregory, 1990; Bragg y Kershner, 2004); de manera
que en función de parámetros como la altura del árbol, la pendiente del terreno y la
distancia al cauce se determina la probabilidad de que una pieza de madera llegue al río
(Fig. 2.15).
Una vez delimitadas las zonas contribuyentes se analizó el tipo de vegetación

existente, ya que el tipo de especies (coníferas o frondosas), su estado y su densidad serán
parámetros fundamentales en su facilidad o resistencia a ser incorporados por estos
procesos (Hutte, 1968; Stumbles, 1968; Naka, 1982; Abernethy y Rutherford, 2001;
Webb y Erskine, 2003).


Figure 2.15: (a) Illustration of variables used for mass balance of wood; (b) Potential tree
fall area showing total tree height, Ht; effective tree height, He; and total arc distance, 2π
He; (c) Schematic illustrating the probability of woody debris falling into a stream from a
tree located (A) at the edge of the stream, (B) at a distance less than the effective tree
height, and (C) at a distance greater than the effective tree height. (from Robison and
Beschta 1990; Martin and Benda, 2001)
Figura 2.15: Esquema de las variables que se tienen en cuenta en los procesos de
incorporación de madera a los cauces; (b) área potencial de caída de un individuo; (c)
ilustración esquemática de la probabilidad de que una pieza de madera llegue al cauce en
función de su localización: (A) en el banco de orilla; (B) a una distancia menor que su
altura efectiva; (C) a una distancia mayor. (tomado y traducido de Robison y Beschta
1990; Martin y Benda, 2001).
Para estimar el volumen de madera se generaron escenarios (Scholz y Tietje, 2002) y

se aplicaron los principios de la lógica difusa (fuzzy logic; Zadeh, 1965). Estos principios
parten de la idea de que los elementos sobre los que se basa el pensamiento humano no son
números sino etiquetas lingüísticas. Esta idea es la que permite que se pueda representar el
conocimiento, que es principalmente lingüístico de tipo cualitativo y no tanto cuantitativo,
en un lenguaje matemático mediante los conjuntos difusos y funciones características
asociadas a ellos. Así, se pudieron generar diferentes escenarios en función de la frecuencia e
intensidad de los procesos de incorporación, que junto con las características de la
vegetación dieron lugar a estimaciones de volúmenes de madera potencialmente disponible.

2.8. Simulación hidrodinámica de la carga leñosa
A pesar de que la influencia de la carga leñosa en la dinámica fluvial ha sido estudiada

por diversos científicos (ver introducción de esta Memoria), no existía hasta la fecha
ninguna herramienta que permitiera simular su transporte en los ríos. Para ello se
desarrolló un modelo numérico en lenguaje Fortran e implementado como un módulo
nuevo en el modelo hidrodinámico bidimensional Iber descrito en el apartado anterior, lo
que permitió simular el transporte de la carga leñosa junto con la hidrodinámica (ver
apartado 4.5 de Resultados). Este modelo y su posterior validación en laboratorio fueron
desarrollados en el Instituto Flumen de la Universidad Politécnica de Catalunya durante
una estancia de investigación de 3 meses.
El inicio del movimiento de una pieza de madera (suponiendo ésta como un cilindro)
situada en un cauce, se determinó mediante un análisis de las fuerzas que actúan sobre ella,
siguiendo los trabajos de Braudrick y Grant (2000), Bocchiola et al. (2002), Merten et al.
(2010) y Mazzorana et al. (2011), y aportando algunas modificaciones. Estas fuerzas son,
por un lado, la fuerza gravitacional y la fuerza de arrastre que facilitan el movimiento, y por
otro lado, la fuerza de rozamiento o fricción que se opone al movimiento. Dependen de
parámetros como la densidad de la madera, su longitud y diámetro, el ángulo que forma
con respecto al flujo, las condiciones hidrodinámicas del flujo (calado y campo de
velocidades) y unos coeficientes de fricción con el lecho y de arrastre (Fig. 2.16).
Se implementaron los diferentes regímenes de transporte de una pieza de madera,

bien por flotación (la pieza se moverá a una velocidad similar a la del agua) o por rodadura
o arrastre de fondo (el transporte se produce a una velocidad diferente a la del agua; figura
2.17).
Además de la traslación también se produce una rotación en la horizontal, ya que la

pieza de madera tenderá a colocarse paralela a la dirección y sentido de la corriente
buscando la posición hidrodinámica más estable. Se integró la posibilidad de simular y
analizar el transporte de piezas individuales de diferentes características desplazándose
mediante los diferentes regímenes de movimiento y por tanto, de permitir la interacción
entre varias piezas de madera, y entre éstas y el cauce, o las condiciones internas (como los
puentes, ver apartado 4.6 de Resultados). Aunque sin duda la parte más importante fue
integrar en el modelo la influencia que ejerce la presencia de piezas de madera en la
hidrodinámica, especialmente el aumento en el calado y la variación en el campo de
velocidades.

Figure 2.16: Schematic and body-force diagrams of some of the components of the force
balance acting on a log (from Braudrick and Grant, 2000).
Figura 2.16: Diagramas en los que se muestra de forma esquemática algunas de las fuerzas
involucradas en el inicio de movimiento de una pieza de madera (tomado y traducido de
Braudrick y Grant, 2000).

Figure 2.17: Transport regimes based on wood density (ρw), flow density (ρ), water depth
(h) and log diameter (Dw). A, B and D, rolling or sliding; C, floating.
Figura 2.17: Regímenes de transporte en función de la densidad de la madera (ρw), la

densidad del flujo (ρ), el calado (h) y el diámetro de la pieza de madera (Dw). A, B y D,
rodadura o arrastre; C, flotación.
El modelo fue validado mediante ensayos de laboratorio en el Laboratorio de

Hidráulica del Instituto FLUMEN. El canal empleado mide 0,6 m de ancho y 10 m de
largo, con una sección transversal rectangular y paredes laterales lisas. La geometría del
canal recto fue modificada con varios obstáculos para formar un fuerte campo de
velocidades bidimensional y turbulencia. Fueron utilizados dos caudales (12 y 18 l s-1), con
diferentes condiciones de contorno de vertedero (5 cm y 9.7 cm de altura). Para representar
las piezas de madera se emplearon cilindros redondos de madera de haya de distintas
dimensiones (ver figura 2.18).
Todos los ensayos se grabaron con una cámara digital de gran angular instalada unos
metros por encima del canal. Las videograbaciones fueron procesadas mediante un código
desarrollado en Matlab para determinar la trayectoria de cada pieza en el canal. Así se
pudieron comparar los resultados del modelo matemático con los ensayos en el modelo
físico.

85
Figure 2.18:(a) Flume at the FLUMEN Institute (UPC); (b) water depth measurements with limnimetre; (c) Flow velocity
3D field using a microacoustic Doppler Velocimeter; (d) Round white beech wooden dowels used.
Figura 2.18: (a) Canal de experimentación del Instituto FLUMEN (UPC); (b) medida de calados con limnímetro; (c)
medida del campo 3D de velocidad del flujo con un velocímetro microacústico Doppler; (d) piezas de madera utilizadas.

2.9. Análisis de riesgo por avenidas con

perspectiva probabilista
Como se expuso en la Introducción de esta Memoria, concebir el análisis de

peligrosidad y/o riesgo desde el enfoque probabilístico consiste en la construcción de
modelos acompañados de un análisis de incertidumbre en las diferentes etapas, para llevar a
cabo su integración en un único resultado (Romanowicz y Beven, 2003; Bates et al., 2004;
Pappenberger et al., 2006; Di Baldassarre et al., 2010). Se denomina incertidumbre
epistémica a aquella asociada al conocimiento incompleto del fenómeno, e incertidumbre
aleatoria a la relacionada con la variabilidad intrínseca del proceso. En este trabajo de
investigación el análisis de incertidumbre (epistémica) se abordó desde diferentes
aproximaciones, en función de los datos de partida y del proceso que se estuviera
evaluando. Así fue posible estimar la incertidumbre epistémica según:
1. Una aproximación determinista: la incertidumbre se evalúa llevando a cabo un

análisis de sensibilidad o mediante la generación de diferentes escenarios (Yoe, 1994;
Oberguggenberger, 2005). De esta forma las estimaciones de las variables, factores o
parámetros nos dan los resultados más probables. Esta aproximación se empleó en la
generación de escenarios de incorporación de carga leñosa a los ríos y para la
simulación hidráulica en la asignación del coeficiente de rugosidad.
2. Un análisis de intervalos: se considera un rango amplio de valores para una variable.

La incertidumbre del parámetro se define por los límites superior e inferior (peor y
mejor). La variabilidad total del parámetro puede ser capturada pero no hay
información de detalle de la incertidumbre.
3. Una aproximación probabilística: es la que mejor define la incertidumbre, ya que los

parámetros son tratados como variables aleatorias con una distribución conocida.
Este método se empleó en el análisis de frecuencia (Fig. 2.19).
4. Un análisis de alternativas basadas en la lógica difusa en la que, como ya se

mencionó, la teoría probabilística puede relajarse (Oberguggenberger, 2005;
Oberguggenberger y Fellin, 2005). Esta aproximación se empleó en la generación de
escenarios de incorporación de carga leñosa a los ríos.

Figure 2.19: Uncertainty bounds in the frequency analysis (1) and hydraulic modeling (2).
Figura 2.19: Limites de incertidumbre en el análisis de frecuencia (1) y en la modelización

hidráulica (2).
Una vez obtenidos los cuantiles, y su incertidumbre, derivados del análisis de

frecuencia, se combinaron los resultados de los modelos hidráulicos (sometidos a análisis de
sensibilidad) con la información catastral de las zonas de estudio implementándose en un
sistema de información geográfica (ver apartado 4.7 de Resultados). De este modo se
definieron las zonas expuestas, y la valoración de la vulnerabilidad de los elementos
contenidos en dichas zonas; para ello se emplearon funciones que relacionan el calado con
el porcentaje de afección, las denominadas curvas calado-daño. Así se obtuvo la estimación
del riesgo esperado de inundación para un determinado periodo de retorno (Fig. 2.20).
Los resultados se integraron de forma que los mapas obtenidos están representados
con una aproximación probabilista, es decir, no marcados por un único limite, sino
representando una zonación gradualmente probable.
A continuación se definieron diferentes escenarios suponiendo transporte de carga

leñosa para analizar sus efectos en la estimación del riesgo (Fig. 2.21).

Figure 2.20: Illustration of the terms flood hazard, vulnerability and risk (from Merz and
Thieken, 2004)
Figura 2.20: Esquema ilustrativo de los términos peligrosidad, vulnerabilidad y riesgo por
inundación (tomado y traducido de Merz y Thieken, 2004).
Figure 2.21: Illustration of the risk analysis process and the configuration of scenarios with
large wood.
Figura 2.21: Esquema ilustrativo del proceso seguido en el análisis de riesgo y la generación
de escenarios con y sin carga leñosa.

3. ZONA DE ESTUDIO: LA SIERRA DE

GREDOS
3.1. Contexto geográfico, geológico y

geomorfológico
3.2 Contexto climático

3.3. Tipos de suelo, vegetación, usos y
aprovechamientos
3.4. Avenidas e inundaciones en la zona de

estudio


3.1 Contexto geográfico, geológico y

geomorfológico
Geográficamente la Sierra de Gredos forma parte del Sistema Central español (Fig.
3.1). Se trata de una cadena montañosa con cerca de 500 km de desarrollo que atraviesa una
parte de la Península en dirección SO-NE. La Sierra de Gredos se sitúa en su tramo medio,
entre las sierras de Guadarrama y Béjar. En ella se localiza la mayor elevación de toda la
cadena, el pico Almanzor, con 2592 m de altitud. Gredos posee un relieve acusado, y
asimétrico presentando la vertiente sur un mayor desnivel y laderas más escarpadas. Se
divide en tres sectores: oriental hasta el Puerto del Pico, central hasta el Puerto de
Tornavacas y occidental o Sierra de Béjar. Se distinguen además dentro de Gredos varias
sierras y macizos montañosos, entre los que destacan de Este a Oeste: la sierra del Valle, la
sierra de la Paramera, sierra de Villafranca, La Serrota, Sierra Llana, sierra del Barco, sierra
de Tormantos, el Macizo Central, sierra de Béjar, sierra de Candelario, cuerda del
Calvitero, sierra de la Alberca, sierra de Tonda, montes de Tras La Sierra y sierra de
Francia.
Figure 3.1: Sierra de Gredos (Gredos mountain range) location.
Figura 3.1: Localización de la Sierra de Gredos

CAPÍTULO /CHAPTER
C 3
D
Desde el pun nto de vistaa hidrológi co, la Sierrra de Gredoos forma laa divisoria natural
n
entre laas cuencas del
d Duero (aal Norte) y eel Tajo (al Sur),
S quedaando ademáás circunscrita por
algunoss de sus afluuentes prin
ncipales: el Tiétar y el Alberche por p el Sur y el Norestte, y el
Tormess y el Jerte por
p el Nortee y el Suroesste.
A
Administratiivamente, la l Sierra dee Gredos ocupa
o funddamentalmeente el Surr de la
provinccia de Ávilaa (Castilla y León), auunque algun
nas sierras penetran een la provin
ncia de
Salamannca, Cácerees (Extremadura) y Tolledo (Castillla-La Manccha).
D
Desde un puunto de vista geológicco, forma parte de uno de los fragmentoss de la
Cadenaa Varisca, ell Macizo Ib bérico. Denttro de la claasificación del Macizoo Ibérico, laa Sierra
de Greddos perteneece a la Zo ona Centroo-Ibérica (L Lotze, 1945 5; Julivert eet al., 1972
2; Díez
Balda et al., 1990; figura
f 3.2).
Figur
ure 3.2: Geoological andd structural ssketch of thhe Sierra de Gredos andd surroundi
dings
(from
m Tectonic and geologi gic map of Spain
Sp 1:2000 0000 by IGMME).
Figuraa 3.2: Esquem

ema geológicco-estructur
ural de la Sieerra de Gred
dos y alreded
edores. (tom
mado y
tradu
ducido del Mapa
M Tectónnico de Esppaña 1:2000000 del IGM ME).
VIRGINIA RUIZ-VILLANUEV
VA 92 TESIS DOCTO
Esta zona se caracteriza de forma general por la presencia de metasedimentos y

ortogneises del Proterozoico o del Paleozoico inferior, intruidos por numerosos batolitos
de edad Varisca (330-285 Ma; Moreno-Ventas et al., 1995; Villaseca et al., 1995; Bea et al.,
1999). Las rocas de composición granítica a granodiorítica, o serie de granitoides
calcoalcalinos (Capdevila et al., 1973; Castro et al., 2002), constituyen más del 90% de las
rocas intrusivas. Cantidades menores de rocas básicas, desde gabros a cuarzo-dioritas están
presentes también en el batolito junto con complejos metamórficos de baja presión
compuestos por migmatitas y granitos anatécticos asociados (Díaz Alvarado, 2012).
Este zócalo granítico se encuentra limitado por las cuencas cenozoicas del Tajo y
Duero, constituidas por depósitos de origen continental. Además calizas y dolomías (de
poco espesor) flanquean al norte y sur en las zonas adyacentes más alejadas de la Sierra.
Estas rocas de edad cretácica son testimonio de la transgresión marina del mar de Thetis
ocurrida a final de este periodo, y pueden considerarse la prolongación más occidental de la
rama castellana de la Cuenca Ibérica mesozoica.
Desde un punto de vista estructural, la orogenia Varisca produjo en las rocas

metasedimentarias precámbricas y paleozoicas, y en algunas rocas que las intruyen, una
deformación polifásica variable que da lugar a estructuras de diversos tipos y que está
acompañada de un metamorfismo regional progrado y polifásico, que llega a producir
anatexia (Bea y Moreno-Ventas, 1985; Bea et al., 1999).
Durante la orogenia Alpina tuvo lugar una reactivación de las fracturas preexistentes
con movimientos en la vertical (Bea y Moreno, 1985). Además se han considerado como
accidentes con posible actividad neotectónica, aquellas fallas alpinas principales que
delimitan los bloques elevados del Sistema Central (Magnas 554-579, IGME). Diversos
autores posteriores (Pedraza, 1973, 1978; Gutiérrez Elorza y Rodríguez Vidal, 1978;
Garzón Heydt, 1980; Garzón, Pedraza y Ubanell, 1982; Pedraza, 1989; y Centeno
Carrillo, 1989) entre otros, han realizado estudios detallados sobre la fracturación y
evolución geomorfológica del Sistema Central en su conjunto.
La orogenia Alpina provocó a grandes rasgos el basculamiento de la plataforma

central hacia el Noroeste, causando una modificación de la red de drenaje y la asimetría que
se mencionaba con respecto a las laderas. Como consecuencia, las planicies de la cuenca del
Duero quedan en torno a los 1000 m de altitud, mientras que al sur de la cadena, las del
Tajo presentan de forma general unos 500 m de altitud.
La morfología actual de la Sierra de Gredos es el resultado del modelado de los

materiales graníticos principalmente por meteorización, la actividad glaciar y fluvioglaciar
intensa y una densa red de fracturas frágiles que suelen generar bandas de trituración
fácilmente erosionables por arroyada.

En cuanto a la geomorfología, el glaciarismo cuaternario (Würm), se encuentra bien

representado por el subtipo glaciar de circo, pudiéndose inferir la existencia de algunos
glaciares de ladera o intermedios, e incluso monteras de hielo (Martínez de Pisón, 1972;
Pedraza y López, 1980; Alonso et al., 1982; Muñoz y Sanz, 1995; Pedraza et al., 1996). El
máximo glaciar se alcanzó en Gredos hace 26000-24000 años y se mantuvo más o menos
estable hasta hace 21000 años cuando comenzó a retroceder hasta desaparecer hace unos
16000 años (Palacios et al., 2010).
La morfogénesis actual predominante está asociada a los procesos geomorfológicos

activos que son hoy responsables de la configuración actual de la Sierra y de la formación de
grandes depósitos cuaternarios. Debido fundamentalmente a la meteorización de las rocas
granitoideas, las morfologías actuales más comunes son: crestones y crestas, domos o
bornhardt, berrocales, pedrizas, lanchares y tors, y los mantos de arenización (Centeno,
1988). Así mismo cabe destacar, una infinidad de morfologías menores como pilancones,
aros de piedra, tafonis, pavimentos, acanaladuras, piedras caballeras, pendientes invertidas,
agrietamientos pseudopoligonales. Otro de los modelados más característicos son los
perfiles de gelifracción que presentan morfologías de crestas, agujas o aristas y que en la
toponimia local reciben los nombres de "riscos", "peñas”, “cuchillares” y “galayares”; así
como los depósitos de los materiales movilizados formando laderas coluvionales
(canchales), taludes y flujos y conos de derrubios (Palacios et al., 2003).
Desde un punto de vista fisiográfico se pueden distinguir 5 unidades principales:
 Superficies de cumbres: constituida por el macizo granítico y su manto de

alteración a cotas aproximadas de 2000 m. Son comunes las formas de
berrocal, así como los riscos o galayares (Fig. 3.3a).

Figure 3.3 (a): Uppermost surface in Los Galayos, Guisando, Ávila.
Figura 3.3: (a) Superficie de cumbres formada por galayares en la zona de Los Galayos,
Guisando, Ávila.

 Laderas escarpadas: tapizadas por los canchales, que en algunos casos se

concentran a favor de las vaguadas (Fig. 3.3b).
Figure 3.3 (b): High and medium steep slopes;view from road N-502 in the Mombeltrán
area.
Figura 3.3: (b) Laderas escarpadas y débilmente escarpadas; vista de la zona de Mombeltrán
desde la carretera N-502.

 Laderas débilmente escarpadas: entre esta unidad y la siguiente se desarrollan

los glacis mixtos. En zonas puntuales se encuentran bloques movilizados, y los
berrocales aparecen por toda la unidad (Fig. 3.3c).
Figure 3.3 (c): Granitic forms in the pathway from San Estebán del Valle to Cuevas del
Valle.
Figura 3.3 (c): Morfologías graníticas en el camino de San Estebán del Valle a Cuevas del
Valle.

 Piedemonte: en esta unidad se reconocen relieves residuales, glacis mixtos,

berrocales, etc.
 Sistemas fluviales: formados por los cauces y gargantas, y los sistemas de barras
y terrazas de los ríos principales (ej.: figura 3.3d), así como los abanicos
aluviales de los arroyos que descienden desde las laderas.
Figure 3.3 (d): Fluvial system of the Arenal River crossing Arenas de San Pedro village.
Figura 3.3 (d): Sistema fluvial del río Arenal a su paso por Arenas de San Pedro.

3.2 Context
C to climáático
Las caracteerísticas fisiiográficas ddescritas antteriormentee y su posicción geográáfica son

determminantes para los prin ncipales rassgos climáticos de la Sierra
S Gredos. El clima se
de G
puedee definir como mediterráneo conntinentalizad do con inviernos largoos y fríos y veranos
cortoss y más o menos
m caluroosos. Según el Atlas Cliimático Ibéérico (AEM MET, 2011; Fig. 3.4)
en la SSierra de Gredos
G queddan represenntadas dos zonas
z climááticas, la zonna Tipo C (Climas
templlados) y la zona Tipo D (Climas fr fríos), según
n la clasificacción de Köpppen-Geigeer.
.Figgure 3.4: Kööppen-Geige

ger Climate Classificatiion for the Iberian
I Penninsula (AE
EMET,
2011).
Figu
gura 3.4: Claasificación climática
c dee Köppen-G
Geiger en la península IIbérica (AE
EMET,
2011).
po C, la verrtiente nortte estaría caaracterizadaa por el subttipo Csb

Además, deentro del tip
(climaa templado con verano seco y teemplado) y la vertientte sur por C Csa (templlado con
veranoo seco y caaluroso). En
n términos generales, las laderas meridionalles son muccho más
VIRGINIA
A RUIZ-VILLANU
UEVA 99 TESIS DOCTTORAL/ PhD THESIS
H (2012)
CAPÍTULO /CHAPTER
C 3
cálidas qque las septtentrionaless (Gavilán eet al., 1998), explicado

o por la mennor altitud media
unida all efecto de ssolana generalizado.
Laa temperatuura media anual es suuperior a 100°C, siendo

o la media del mes más
m frío
(enero) inferior a 0°C. Por el
e contrario , la media del mes máás caluroso (julio) es igual
i o
superiorr a 22 °C.
R
Respecto a laas precipitaciones, la siituación es algo más co
ompleja. Enn principio cabría
esperar una mayorr cantidad de d precipitaación al noorte, donde encontram mos mayor altitud
media y posición laatitudinal más
m septentrrional; sin embrago,
e ucede lo conntrario (Fig.. 3.5).
su
Figure 3.5: Averagge total ann

nual precipit
itation for the
th Iberian Peninsula.
P ((AEMET, 2011).
2
FFigura 3.5: P
Precipitacióón media annual de la peenínsula Ibéérica (AEM
MET, 2011).
).
VA 100 TESIS DOCTO
Así queda reflejado en las cantidades máximas de precipitación registradas en 24

horas en la estación de Navaredonda de Gredos (165 mm en el año 1989) frente a las
registradas en Guisando el Risquillo (239 mm en 1956). Mientras que las precipitaciones
medias anuales son en torno a 800 mm (para altitudes alrededor de los 1000 a 1500 m) en
la vertiente norte, en la sur ascienden a casi 2000 mm y en altitudes mucho menores (en
torno a 800 m).
El hecho de que las precipitaciones sean muy superiores al sur, debe relacionarse con
la apertura de la cuenca del Tajo (en concreto de su afluente el Tiétar) hacia el Oeste, lo
que permite que la influencia atlántica afecte a buena parte de la vertiente meridional de la
Sierra. Por el contrario, al norte, esa posible llegada de aire húmedo occidental se ve
obstaculizada por la particular disposición de los relieves existentes en la zona (como la
Sierra de Candelario con cotas de hasta 2400 m). Así también las precipitaciones
registradas en el puerto del Pico son inferiores a las registradas en Guisando, el Hornillo o
el Arenal, localidades situadas a cotas altitudinales inferiores pero ubicadas entre
contrafuertes de dirección N-S.
Las estaciones más lluviosas son el otoño y la primavera, caracterizándose la primera

por la llegada de temporales de varios días de duración, y la segunda por la ocurrencia de
episodios con precipitaciones más intensas y de más corta duración. En verano, las
precipitaciones son por lo general escasas, aunque en las zonas montañosas pueden
formarse nubes de gran desarrollo vertical por ascensos convectivos de aire cálido y
húmedo, produciendo precipitaciones relativamente abundantes. En estas condiciones, las
precipitaciones son de carácter torrencial, pudiéndose presentar en ocasiones en forma de
granizo. En la Sierra de Gredos se localiza uno de los núcleos de máximos pluviométricos de
la península. Para cualquiera de los periodos de retorno considerados se localiza el valor
máximo regional de la precipitación diaria en la zona de Guisando, con cantidades que van
desde 175 mm para un periodo de retorno de 5 años a más de 250 para 50 años y en torno a
300 para 100 años (Libro Blanco del Agua, 2000; Fig. 3.6).

CAPÍTULO /CHAPTER
C 3
Figure 33.6: 100-yea

ears return period
p of ma
maximum daaily precipita
tation in Spa
pain (Libro Blanco
B
del Agua, M
MAGRAM MA, 2000).
Figurra 3.6: Mapaa de lluvias máximas di

diarias en la España
E Pen
ninsular para
ra un perioddo de
retornno de 100 añños (Libro B
Blanco del Agua,
A MAG GRAMA, 20 2000).
VA 102 TESIS DOCTO
3.3 Tipos de suelo, vegetación, usos y

aprovechamientos
Los tipos de suelo, y según el Atlas del Medio Natural y de los Recursos Hídricos de la
provincia de Ávila (IGME, 2010), están formados por tres órdenes principales, de acuerdo
a la clasificación americana (USDA, 2006), a saber: Entisoles, Inceptisoles y Alfisoles. De
forma general, los Entisoles ocupan las laderas de la Sierra, son suelos jóvenes formados
sobre materiales difíciles de alterar, sin apenas diferencia de horizontes en el perfil. Los
Inceptisoles son algo más evolucionados, aunque el mayor grado de evolución le
corresponde a los Alfisoles con un horizonte subsuperficial argílico. En las áreas de cumbre
pueden aparecer algunos suelos turbosos ligados a las formas glaciares.
La vegetación en esta zona está marcada principalmente por la altitud y el régimen de

precipitaciones y temperaturas, diferenciándose varios pisos (Génova et al., 2009):
 Piso mesomediterráneo: se corresponde con la zona de más baja cota (entre 400 y
800 m), y de forma general es el piso de la encina y el pino piñonero. Este piso
ocupa las zonas de fondo de valle o parte baja de las laderas, que es donde se
asientan los principales núcleos de población y en sus inmediaciones las zonas de
cultivo, las zonas de pastos y zonas industriales. Los encinares (Quercus ilex) se
encuentran mejor conservados en la vertiente sur, mientras que en la vertiente
norte, más continental, lo hacen formando un monte bajo en las laderas de solana.
Los pinares de pino piñonero (Pinus pinea) también se concentran en los
piedemontes y lomas bajas, aunque están en general poco representados. También
se pueden encontrar rodales de alcornoque (Quercus suber) en el tramo medio
alto del valle del Tiétar. Además, en este piso basal a la encina le acompañan
enebros (Juniperos oxycedrus), jaras (Cistus ladanifer), retamas (Retama
sphaerocarpa) y algunos brezos (Erica australis).
 Piso supramediterráneo: zona de media montaña (de 900 a 1500 m) o piso del
melojo y del pino resinero. Cuando la humedad aumenta y la temperatura
disminuye, la encina empieza a mezclarse con el roble melojo (Quercus pirenaica)
o el pino resinero o negral (Pinus pinaster; Fig. 3.7). A éstos les acompañan como
arbustos el piorno (Cytisus scoparius), la estepa (Cytisus laurifolius) y retama
(Genista falcata). Algún tejo (Taxus baccata), acebo (Ilex aquifolium) y serbal
(Sorbus aucuparia) aparecen junto al roble. Hay que destacar que, debido la
intensa actividad dedicada a la extracción de resina, muchos de los pinares son
repoblaciones artificiales. Otros cultivos como el de castaños (Castanea sativa) ha

favorecido que el roble haya disminuido su extensión natural. Finalmente, es

posible encontrar álamo (Populus tremula), olmos (Ulmus glabra), avellano
(Corylus avellana), abedules (Betula sp.) y fresnedas (Fraxinus angustifolia).
Figure 3.7: Pinus pinaster in Los Galayos (Guisando).
Figura 3.7: Pinus pinaster en la zona de Los Galayos (Guisando).

 Piso oromediterráneo: zona de alta montaña (1500 a 2000 m) o piso de piornales

y pinares de altura. Sobre esta cota los árboles que quedan empiezan a clarear y
hacerse más achaparrados, y suelen estar acompañados de matorrales de
leguminosas (Cytisus oromediterraneus; C. scoparius, Genista cinerascens; Fig.
3.8) y matorrales de enebro (Juniperus communis). Preferentemente en la ladera
Sur se encuentran bosquetes de pinos (Pinus sylvestris y Pinus nigra), siendo más
escaso el P. nigra. Algunos de los ejemplares presentan grandes portes y edades que
rondan los 350 años.
Figure 3.8: Cytisus scrubs in the high altitude range (Sierra del Valle, Venero Claro,
Navaluenga).
Figura 3.8: Matorrales de Cytisus en la zona de alta montaña (Sierra del Valle, Venero
Claro, Navaluenga).
 Piso crioromediterráneo: Zona de cumbres o piso de los pastos de altura y cumbres

rocosas. Por encima de los 2000 m crecen pocas matas, aunque abundantes plantas
herbáceas (Armeria bigerrensis, Arenaria querioides, Plantago alpina, entre otras).

 Los bosques de ribera (Fig. 3.9): algunos de los bosques mencionados

anteriormente son sustituidos en las zonas de influencia de los cursos de agua por
otras especies. Sólo unas especies de árboles pueden sobrevivir manteniendo sus
raíces sumergidas, como los chopos (Populus nigra), los sauces (Salix atrocinerea,
entre otros), y los alisos. (Alnus glutinosa; Middleton, 1999). De esta forma, las
inundaciones prolongadas pueden determinar el tipo de bosque en una franja
particular de vegetación a lo largo del río. La asociación de robles (Quercus spp.),
olmos (Ulmus glabra) y fresnos (Fraxinus angustifolia) sólo puede desarrollarse en
las terrazas más altas que se inundan menos que los sitios colonizados por chopos y
sauces (Ellenberg, 1988). Por otro lado, las formaciones de alisos se caracterizan
porque no soportan los fríos intensos y no aguantan el estiaje, por lo que
concentran su presencia en los tramos medios y bajos de los ríos y arroyos.
Figure 3.9: Riparian forest in the Arenal River crossing Arenas de San Pedro.
Figura 3.9: Bosque de ribera en el río Arenal a su paso por Arenas de San Pedro.

Si representáramos la Sierra de Gredos en un corte transversal es posible observar esta

distribución de especies en altura y además las diferencias existentes entre una vertiente y la
otra (Fig. 3.10).
Figure 3.10: Schematic vegetation catena of two cross sections of the Sierra de Gredos (up)
western section; (down) eastern section. (Adapted from Génova , 2009).
Figura 3.10: Catenas esquemáticas de la vegetación de la Sierra de Gredos en dos cortes

correspondientes al sector oeste (arriba) y este (abajo) de la Sierra de Gredos (adaptado de
Génova , 2009).

Esta variabilidad entre ambas vertientes también se observa en lo relativo a

agropaisajes ligados al aprovechamiento, ganadero en la cara norte, con prados de siega,
ameales, abrevaderos, cerramientos de mampostería de tierra en seco, tenadas y refugios con
cubiertas de piorno serrano. Mientras que en la cara sur predomina el paisaje forestal y el
agrícola, llamando la atención el generado por las explotaciones en bancales. El paisaje
forestal está ineludiblemente unido a las actividades socio-económicas de la población rural
(Cantero, 2003).
La acción antrópica (deforestadora) ha sido un fenómeno muy importante a lo largo

de la historia holocena reciente. La eliminación de bosques para establecer cultivos y pastos
resultó común en la Sierra de Gredos. Cabe destacar que en los momentos de mayor
expansión demográfica, incluso en zonas elevadas, la eliminación del bosque pudo llegar a
ser absoluta (por ejemplo en La Serrota). En los últimos 40 años, sin embargo, la pérdida
progresiva de población ha propiciado el abandono de estas actividades de explotación
directa, observándose en muchos casos la recuperación de los espacios anteriormente
cultivados o sometidos a pastoreo. También hay que destacar otro tipo de explotación o
aprovechamiento que condujo a la estabilidad e incluso expansión de determinadas
especies, es el caso de las formaciones de Pinus pinaster y su uso para obtención de resina.
Los cultivos en montaña prácticamente han desaparecido en la actualidad; y las

tierras agrícolas están destinadas, según la Encuesta sobre Superficies y Rendimientos de
Cultivos (ESYRCE, 2007), en su mayor parte a cultivos herbáceos y barbecho, dedicándose
a cereales de grano, tanto de secano como de regadío. Otros cultivos de importancia son los
de plantas forrajeras y los cultivos industriales; y en menor medida leguminosas, hortalizas y
patata. En cuanto a cultivos leñosos, los más importantes son la vid y el olivo y entre los
frutales destacan manzano, peral y cerezo.
Hay que resaltar una práctica habitual de manejo que afecta a la vegetación de ribera
particularmente. Este manejo comprende labores combinadas de desbroce, limpieza y
podas selectivas del bosque de ribera. A ello se añade el destoconado previa tala. El desbroce
selectivo por medios manuales y mecánicos (desbrozadora) se suele llevar a cabo en tanto en
la ribera como en la llanura de inundación de ríos y gargantas.

3.4. Avenidas e inundaciones en la zona de

estudio
Las características climáticas, orográficas y geológicas de la península Ibérica

determinan que los episodios de avenida sean fenómenos de carácter normal, con los que la
sociedad tiene que convivir (Benito y Machado, 2012).
La tipología, magnitud y frecuencia de las avenidas varían entre diversas cuencas de

drenaje dependiendo de su variabilidad morfométrica y principalmente de los patrones
atmosféricos que generan las inundaciones (Benito et al., 1996 y 1997; Fig. 3.11).
En la zona de estudio están representadas prácticamente todas las tipologías de

inundaciones continentales (Díez-Herrero y Ballesteros, 2010):
 En las grandes cuencas fluviales (Alberche, Tiétar, Adaja, Corneja y Tormes); se

producen inundaciones por desbordamiento de los ríos principales durante
crecidas (aumento lento y gradual del caudal de estas corrientes, que supera la
capacidad de evacuación del cauce, inundando la llanura colindante, en un efecto
que puede durar varios días).
 En las cuencas de cabecera de la sierra y parameras de Gredos las avenidas súbitas

(flash flood) en pequeños arroyos, gargantas y barrancos desencadenadas por un
aumento repentino del caudal (tiempo base de minutos u horas), llevan asociadas
elevadas velocidades de la corriente y alta capacidad de transporte de carga sólida.
Son este tipo de inundación en el que se centra este trabajo de investigación.
En los fondos de depresiones y de piedemontes se produce el anegamiento por

encharcamiento in situ de zonas llanas y endorreicas y/o elevación de la superficie freática
por encima de la superficie del terreno o anegando sótanos y bodegas. Las causas principales
del desencadenamiento de las inundaciones en esta zona están marcadas por las diferentes
configuraciones fisiográficas del paisaje y las variadas situaciones meteorológicas que se
producen en la Sierra de Gredos:
 En invierno, como consecuencia del paso sucesivo de temporales asociados a

circulaciones de alto índice zonal del oeste o noroeste, o vaguadas profundas de
aire polar marino (Pm), situadas al oeste de la Península, permiten la entrada de
vientos húmedos del suroeste, creando importantes y prolongadas precipitaciones
(frentes atlánticos).

Figure 3.11: Main predominant flood types: 1, flash floods; 2, torrential floods; 3, flooding
of big rivers; and 4, flooding of endorheic areas (from Díez-Herrero, 2009).
Figura 3.10: Principales tipologías de inundaciones: 1, avenidas súbitas; 2, avenidas

torrenciales; 3, crecidas en grandes ríos; y 4, anegamiento de zonas endorreicas (extraído de
Díez-Herrero, 2008).

 En otoño, sistemas y complejos convectivos que elevan aire caliente a favor de

inestabilidades en altura (vaguada polar o depresión fría); ocupan decenas a
centenares de kilómetros cuadrados, desplazándose con lentitud, y allí donde las
células son más profundas pueden alcanzar precipitaciones muy intensas.
 El deshielo del manto nival en primavera tras un periodo de grandes nevadas, bien
por ascenso térmico, situaciones de inestabilidad más templadas (paso de frentes
cálidos y húmedos), o precipitaciones líquidas sobre la nieve, pueden generar
importantes subidas del caudal.
 También en primavera, y sobre todo en verano, las tormentas asociadas a

fenómenos convectivos locales por caldeamiento de la superficie del suelo, muchas
veces de evolución diurna, y que agravan sus consecuencias cuando están
acompañadas de granizo, pueden generar precipitaciones muy intensas en un corto
periodo de tiempo.
Además, otro tipo de desencadenamiento de inundaciones es la rotura de

represamientos naturales o artificiales; por el embalsamiento del agua tras obstáculos en la
corriente, que genera una ola frontal de elevada peligrosidad. También las inundaciones
pueden estar asociadas a movimientos de ladera (corrientes y avenidas de derrubios); el
desencadenamiento en cabecera de movimientos gravitacionales (deslizamientos,
avalanchas de rocas, desprendimientos...), coincidiendo con precipitaciones intensas,
genera flujos altamente cargados de material sólido (bloques, cantos, gravas, arenas y
material leñoso) que llevan asociada una elevada peligrosidad.
Las subcuencas estudiadas en este trabajo de investigación se localizan en la cuenca

hidrográfica del Río Tajo. (Fig. 3.12). La superficie de la cuenca es de 56.000 km2, siendo el
Tajo el río más largo de la península y su cuenca la tercera, tanto en superficie total como
en aportaciones, después del Ebro y del Duero. Los ríos de mayor longitud de la cuenca del
Tajo son el Tajuña, el Alagón, el Jarama y el Alberche. El río Tajo nace en la Sierra de
Albarracín, y desemboca en el estuario del mar de la Paja junto a Lisboa en Portugal. La red
de tributarios del Tajo es muy disimétrica, tal y como se ha explicado en el apartado 3.1; los
de la margen derecha son los que aportan caudales más abundantes, y recogen las
aportaciones del Sistema Central y de la cordillera Ibérica.
Los ríos de la cuenca del Tajo han generado avenidas que muchas veces se han
traducido en grandes inundaciones llegando a producir muertos y cuantiosas pérdidas
materiales. Entre las avenidas históricas conocidas de este siglo destacan las siguientes: las
del 16 al 22 de febrero de 1936, la del 22 al 26 de enero de 1941, la del 3 al 6 de marzo de

1947, la del 1 al 14 de febrero de 1979 y la de noviembre y diciembre de 1997

(información recogida por la CH Tajo en su página web).
Figure 3.12: Studied basins and rain gauge and stream gauge networks in the Gredos
mountain region.
Figura 3.12: Subcuencas estudiadas y localización de la red de estaciones de aforos y

pluviómetros de la Sierra de Gredos
La red de control hidrometeorológico de la Confederación Hidrográfica del Tajo está

constituida por un total de 105 pluviómetros, 96 estaciones de aforos, 84 piezómetros y 46
puntos de control en embalses. Además desde el año 2000 se están sustituyendo o
añadiendo a estas estaciones las procedentes de la red del Sistema Automático de
Información Hidrológica (Red SAIH.), que estará formada por 202 puntos de control en
total. A esta red se puede añadir la cobertura de lo radares meteorológicos de la Agencia
Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) situados en Madrid y en Palencia (a unos 80 y 120 km
de distancia aproximadamente), instalados desde finales de la década de los 90, pero cuyos
datos se distribuyen de forma sistemática desde 2010.

4. RESULTADOS/RESULTS
4.1. Dendrogeomorphic analysis of flash floods ....115
4.2. Frequency and characterization of flash floods

................................................................................................................................................ 141
4.3. Reconstruction of a flash flood with large

wood transport in an ungauged basin ...................175
4.4. Wood recruitment due to landslides, bank

erosion and floods .................................................................................213
4.5. 2D hydrodynamic modeling of wood transport

................................................................................................................................................ 251
4.6. Modelling of large wood transport at critical

stream geometry configurations .......................................299
4.7. Influence of large wood transport in flood risk
assessment .............................................................................................................325


4.1. DENDROGEOMORPHIC ANALYSIS OF

FLASH FLOODS
(4.1) 1. Introduction
(4.1) 2. Study Site
(4.1) 3. Material and Methods
3.1. Geomorphic mapping
3.2. Analysis of external disturbances and
sampling strategy
3.3. Tree-ring analysis
3.4. Dating of flash flood events
(4.1) 4. Results
(4.1) 5. Discussion
(4.1) 6. Conclusions
REFERENCE:
Ruiz-Villanueva, V.; Díez-Herrero, A.; Stoffel, M.; Bollschweiler, M.; Bodoque, J.M.;
Ballesteros, J.A. (2010). Dendrogeomorphic analysis of flash floods in a small
ungauged mountain catchment (Central Spain). Geomorphology, 118, 383-392.
DOI:10.1016/j.geomorph.2010.02.006


ABSTRACT
Flash floods represent one of the most significant natural hazards with serious death
tolls and economic damage at a worldwide level in general and in Mediterranean mountain
catchments in particular. In these environments, systematic data is often lacking and
analyses have to be based on alternative approaches such as dendrogeomorphology. In this
study, we focus on the identification of flash floods based on growth disturbances (GD)
observed in 98 heavily affected Mediterranean pine trees (Pinus pinaster Ait.) located in or
next to the torrential channel of the Pelayo River in the Spanish Central System. Flash
floods are quite common in this catchment and are triggered by heavy storms, with high
discharge and debris transport rates favoured by high stream gradients. Comparison of the
anomalies in tree morphology and the position of the trees in the channel showed that the
intensity of the disturbance clearly depends on geomorphology. The dating of past flash
flood events was based on the number and intensity of GD observed in the tree-ring series
and on the spatial distribution of affected trees along the torrent, thus allowing seven flash
flood events during the last 50 years to be dated, namely in 1963, 1966, 1973, 1976, 1996,
2000, and 2005.
Keywords: dendrogeomorphology; flash flood frequency analysis; tree-ring;

mountain catchment; Spain.


1. Introduction
Flash floods are localized hydrological phenomena occurring in small catchments of a

few to a few hundred square kilometres, with response times typically being a few hours or
less (Borga et al., 2007). As a result, they represent one of the most significant natural
hazards with serious death tolls and economic damage at a worldwide level in general
(Scheuren et al., 2008) and in Mediterranean mountain catchments in particular (Gaume et
al., in press).
Flash flood analysis in Mediterranean mountains poses specific scientific challenges.

On one hand, lack of information on precipitation and discharge is significant because of a
lack of spatially well-distributed rain or flow data with series that are sufficiently long (i.e.
> 30 years). On the other hand, flow gauge stations may not record correctly during
extreme events because they are often damaged by the event or because discharge exceeds
the recordable level. As a result, systematic data is not available; and prevents enhancement
of our understanding of the spatial and temporal occurrence of the process. The analysis of
growth-ring series of trees affected by past flash floods (i.e., dendrogeomorphology) can
provide an alternative and complementary approach (Yanosky and Jarrett, 2002).
Dendrogeomorphology represents one of the most precise and accurate methods for the
dating of various geomorphic processes (Alestalo, 1971; Shroder, 1978; Stoffel and
Bollschweiler, 2008) and enables the determination of incidences with at least yearly
precision. Dendrogeomorphology has also been used to date past flood events in North
America (Yanosky, 1999; Bégin, 2001; St. George and Nielsen, 2003) and eastern Europe
(Zielonka et al., 2008), but the method has neither been applied so far in the
Mediterranean region nor to reconstruct undocumented flash flood events.
Therefore, the aim of this paper is to date past flash flood events in order to improve
frequency analysis and hazard estimation. We focus on the identification of flash floods
based on growth disturbances in heavily affected trees located in or next to the torrential
channel of the Pelayo River in the Spanish Central System and present (i) a detailed
geomorphic map (1:1 000) of the torrent; (ii) an analysis of the relation between
geomorphology and external tree disturbances; and (iii) a tree-ring-based dating of past
flash flood events.

2. Study Site
The study presented in this paper was conducted within the channel and on the
lateral banks of the Pelayo River, a torrent with a length of 10 km and a catchment area of
20.6 km2 that is located on the southern slopes of the Gredos Mountain Range (Spanish
Central System; Fig. 1).
Fig. 1. (A) Location of the study area in the Gredos Mountain Range (Spanish Central
System); (B) overview of the Pelayo River catchment and the study site of this analysis; (C)
the Pelayo River at Guisando village during normal conditions and (D) during the flash
flood event in December 2008 (picture of 2008 flash flood event, courtesy of Gloria Suarez
García, used with permission).
The torrent originates at 2300 m asl and crosses the village of Guisando (765
inhabitants, 40º13'49" N., 5º9'38" W.; 764 m asl) and two recreational areas (Luis Manuel
López Camp and Los Galayos Camping). At 500 m asl, the torrent merges with the Arenal
River, a tributary of the Tagus River. The main morphometric characteristics of the study
site are summarized in Table 1.

Table 1 Morphometric characteristics of the catchment and the study reach
The climate at the study site is continental Mediterranean and vegetation consists of
the Mediterranean forest. It is characterized by Mediterranean pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.),
oak (Quercus), chestnut (Castanea), walnut (Juglans), and hazel (Corylus). The altitude in
this zone ranges from 800 to 1600 m asl; the annual average temperature varies from 8 to
12ºC; and the zone is characterized by abundant rainfall. In fact, the average annual rainfall
amounts to 2000 mm. Geology consists of Upper Palaeozoic plutonic and metamorphic
bedrock and surficial Quaternary formations (colluvium and weathering mantles) made up
of conglomerates, gravels, and sands.
Flash floods are common in the Pelayo River catchment and are favoured by heavy
storms and the high stream gradient, which make extremely high discharge and debris transport
rates possible. Meteorological data are available from the “El Risquillo” station located in
the lower part of the catchment (05º09´ W., 40º13´ N.; 766 m asl.). In contrast, for this
torrential system, flow data is not available.

3. Material and methods
The methods applied in this study are outlined in Fig. 2 and can be divided into three
main sections, namely: (i) field procedures; (ii) tree-ring and field data analyses; and (iii)
flash flood reconstruction.
Fig. 2. Flow diagram illustrating the different analysis methods applied, from the data
sources to the results.
3.1. Geomorphic mapping
The geomorphic analysis of the torrential system was carried out applying
physiographic and morphometric mapping methods, interpretation of aerial photographs
taken in 2007 (Plan Nacional de Ortofotografía Aérea, PNOA), and field verification.

Physiographic units (i.e., high steep slopes, low steep slopes, and piedmont) of the
Pelayo River catchment have been defined based on several thematic factors, such as
altitude, geology, vegetation, and land use.
Morphometric elements have been classified as slope or torrential elements, but the
focus was clearly on torrential landforms. Based on the classification suggested by
Cenderelli and Cluer (1998), we distinguish five types of gravel bars: (i) medial-
longitudinal gravel bars with equal size channels on both sides of the bar; (ii) longitudinal-
lateral gravel bars with a main or external channel on one side and an internal or secondary
channel on the other side; (iii) lateral-point gravel bars, where the bar is close to the river
banks and a secondary channel; (iv) transverse-diagonal gravel bars with one main channel
and a secondary channel active during flash floods; and (v) levees (i.e., natural deposits on
the river banks). The type and number of bars were noted in the field, their area calculated,
and the spatial distribution of bars along the channel analyzed.
3.2. Analysis of external disturbances and sampling strategy
Flash floods may affect the morphology of a tree in different ways, leading to
different growth responses in the tree-ring series (Stoffel and Bollschweiler, 2009). The
most frequent disturbances and associated reactions in trees growing inside or adjacent to
flash flood torrents are shown in Figs. 3 and 4: flash floods may (i) tilt the stems of trees
growing in the river, on gravel bars, or river banks through the unilateral pressure of the
flow or through the impact of individual boulders (Braam et al., 1987; Fantucci and
Sorriso-Valvo, 1999; Stoffel et al., 2005); (ii) expose roots as a result of river bank or gravel
bar erosion (Lamarche, 1968; Carrara and Carroll, 1979; McAuliffe et al., 2006); (iii)
remove the bark from the stem and injure the cambium from the impact or the abrasion of
boulders and wood transported in the flow (Sachs, 1991; Larson, 1994; Bollschweiler et al.,
2008); or (iv) sheared off trees and cause the formation of candelabra growth following
severe impact by boulders (Butler et al., 1987; Shroder and Butler, 1987).
The sampling strategy was based on these external evidence of flash flood activity in
trees. We selected a total of 98 P. pinaster that were influenced by flash floods and were
located within the channel, on the gravel bars, or on the banks of the Pelayo River.

Fig. 3. Predominant dendrogeomorphic macro-evidence in trees affected by flash floods

and associated responses in tree-ring width and cell structure: (A/D) root exposure; (B)
sheared off tree and candelabra growth; (C) stem tilting; (B/C) injuries.
In addition, 16 undisturbed trees were selected in the medium and upper reaches of
the valley slopes in order to obtain a reference chronology representing local growth
conditions.
For each tree sampled, additional information was noted, such as (i) determination
of its coordinates using a GPS; (ii) its geomorphic position; (iii) its position with respect to
neighbouring trees; (iv) description of the growth disturbances (GD); (v) tree diameter;
(vi) tree height; and (vii) the position of cores sampled. We extracted increment cores
using increment borers (Grissino-Mayer, 2003) with a length of 40 and 60 cm (internal
diameter in both cases: 5.5 mm).

Fig. 4. External evidence of flash flood activity in trees growing along the Pelayo River: (A)
abrasion scars; (B) bark erosion; (C) stem tilting; (D) stem burial; (E) floating roots; (F)
exposed roots. The blue arrows indicate the flow direction.
Two cores were usually sampled per tree, one in the flow direction of flash floods and
one from the opposite side. In trees with exposed roots or buried stem bases, samples were
taken as close to the ground as possible in order to obtain the largest number of tree rings.
In the case of tilted trees, two cores were extracted at the height of the maximum bend,
where compression wood was most likely to be present. Finally, at least three cores were
selected in trees with visible injuries: two samples from the lateral edges of the injury where
signs of the impact were visible in the tree-ring series but where no rings were missing
because of abrasion. In addition, one more sample was taken from the opposite side of the
stem. In the case of the undisturbed trees, two cores were extracted perpendicular to the
slope direction and as close to ground level as possible.

A total of 269 increment cores were collected in the field: 241 samples from the 98
disturbed P. pinaster trees growing within the active channel or in its vicinity as well as 28
cores from the 16 undisturbed reference trees.
Samples collected from the disturbed and undisturbed trees were analyzed in the
laboratory using the standard methods described by Stoffel and Bollschweiler (2008):
After air-drying the samples and preparing the core surfaces (polishing), we counted tree
rings and measured ring widths using a digital LINTAB positioning table coupled to a
Leica stereomicroscope and TSAPWin 4.6 software (Time Series Analysis and
Presentation; Rinntech, 2010). This program also allows the representation of measured
tree-ring series, as well as cross-dating and quality checks of the growth curves. Ring widths
were measured with an accuracy of 1/100 mm. Increment curves of the disturbed trees
were then cross-dated with the reference chronology (Rinntech, 2008) in order to correct
faulty tree-ring series derived from disturbed samples (e.g., false or missing rings) and to
determine initiation of abrupt growth suppression or release. Furthermore, samples were
analyzed visually, and tree rings showing compression wood or callus tissue were noted in a
dedicated file.
The dating of past flash flood events was based on (i) the GD observed in the tree-
ring series (i.e., abrupt growth suppression or release, compression wood, eccentric growth,
callus tissue, and injuries); (ii) the intensity of the GD signal in the tree-ring record; (iii)
the overall number of trees affected by an event; as well as (iv) on the spatial distribution of
affected trees along the torrent.
The different parameters were then quantified and specific weights (wGD from 0.1
to 1) were assigned to the different GD (Table 2). The number of trees affected in a
particular year and the trees being present for analysis in the same year were then used to

derive the percentage of damaged trees (%DT). The spatial distribution of affected trees in
the torrent (SD) was attributed a value of 1 in the case of heterogeneous distribution (i.e.,
several trees that were concentrated in the same area), and a value of 2 was chosen for
homogeneous distribution (i.e., trees evenly spaced along the torrent).
The product of these parameters (wGD × %DT × SD) was then used to date past
flash flood events; and event years were, in addition, tested for significance using the non
parametric Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test.
Table 2: Weights used for the quantification of different growth disturbances with
different intensitiesa
a
Intense means that the GD is well recognizable directly in the increment core, and weak means that
the GD is hardly recognizable directly, but well recognizable with the help of a magnifying glass and the
disturbed growth curves.

4. Results
4.1. Geomorphic characteristics
Geomorphic mapping on a scale of 1:1000 enabled identification of 67 gravel bars in

the torrent, 32 secondary and flooding channels, 99 mass movements and slope deposits,
and 4 physiographic units (Fig. 5).
From the 67 gravel bars identified in the study reach, we note a predominance of
medial-longitudinal, lateral-longitudinal, or lateral-point gravel bars and a scarcity of
transverse-diagonal gravel bars or levees (Table 3).
Fig. 5. Geomorphological mapping of the upper part of the study reach. The legend shows
the classification of units and elements.

Table 3: Types of gravel bars and area (absolute and relative) in the study reach
The spatial distribution of gravel bars changes along the torrent (Table 4). In the
upper part, medial bars are more abundant (60% of medial bars are located in this part of
the reach); whereas lateral point gravel bars are most significant in the central part of the
study site (52% of observed point bars are located in this part).
Table 4: Spatial distribution of bars along the studied reach (upper, central, and lower
part) (values are given per gravel bar type)
4.2. Relation between geomorphology and tree disturbance
Thereafter, external disturbances in trees were related with tree positions in the
channel. A total of 208 macro disturbances in tree morphology were identified in the 98 P.
pinaster trees (Table 5). Several signs were normally observed per tree sampled, with tilted
trunks (96%), exposed roots (62%), and bark erosion (23%) being the most common
features observed. In contrast, apex decapitation (5%) or stem burial (7%) were only
occasionally found.

A comparison of the macro disturbances in tree morphology with geomorphic

positions of the trees sampled (Table 5) clearly shows that the intensity of disturbance
depends on geomorphology. Trees are most heavily affected at the external margins of
lateral bars (lateral-longitudinal and lateral-point bar) and become gradually less perturbed
as soon as they stand on banks, margins of medial-longitudinal bars, internal curves of
meanders, head bars, and internal margins of lateral bars.
Table 5: Trees showing external disturbances and located in different geomorphic settingsa
a
Gravel bars are grouped in medial (medial-longitudinal) and lateral (including lateral-longitudinal.
lateral-point and transverse-diagonal bars). Abbreviations: HB: head of bar; TB: tail of bar; M: margin;
EM: external margin; IM: internal margin; SR: straight reach; EC: external curve of a meander (i.e.
undercut slope); IC: internal curve of a meander (i.e., slip-off slope); C-D. disturbance in the flow
direction. and A-B. disturbance perpendicular to the flow direction.
Table 5 also shows that a majority of trees with the most energetic disturbances (i.e.,
stem tilting or exposed roots) are located in the zones with greatest stream power and most
significant geomorphic work (i.e., banks and external margin of lateral bars). For instance,
trees with tilted stems are located in different geomorphic settings, but their relative
number clearly increases with the increasing process energy involved. The relation between
the energy of the external evidence and the geomorphic sides is shown in Figure 6.

Fig. 6. Relation between the energy of the external evidence and the geomorphic sides. Ball
size represents the percentage of trees showing a specific disturbance located in a specific
geomorphic side related to the total number of trees showing that disturbance. The legend
may be checked in Table 5.
Figure 6 shows a good relation between the most significant disturbances in tree
morphology and the most energetic geomorphic tree positions within the channel. As a
general rule, the relative number of tilted trees (floating or exposed roots) increases with
increasing process energy. In the case of apex decapitation (bark erosion or stem burial)
different peaks can be observed; and the relative number of disturbances in tree
morphology does not seem to increase linearly with increasing process energy.

4.3. Growth disturbances
Tree-ring counting of the flash flood affected trees enabled an assessment of tree age
and their distribution along the torrent (Fig. 7). The trees used in this study are on average
38 years old (STDEV: 22 years). The oldest tree sampled attained sampling height in A.D.
1869 and the youngest tree sampled in 1998. The upper sector of the torrent contains the
youngest trees.
Fig. 7. Age structure of the sampled trees in the torrent. Left: upper sector of the study
reach. Right: lower sector.
A total of 280 GD could be detected in the tree-ring series of the disturbed trees
(Table 6), most frequently in the form of growth decreases (present in more than 70% of
the samples). Injuries and callus tissue were, in contrast, scarce and only observed in 7% of
the samples.

Table 6: Absolute and relative number of growth disturbances observed in the 98 P.

pinaster trees
The dating of past flash flood events was based on specific weights and the product of
GD. The percentage of trees affected and the distribution of affected trees is shown in
Table 7. In total, GD are observed in 22 different years since A.D. 1943. Based on the
Wilcoxon test (95% confidence interval) and p 0.04, we consider seven of the years with
GD as flash flood years namely: 1963, 1966, 1973, 1976, 1996, 2000, and 2005.
Based on the tree morphology and the GD in the tree-ring series, the evidence is good
for the existence of events in the other years as well, but the small number of trees available
for analysis did not allow them to be considered events with equal confidence. One
example is the year 1989, where the confidence interval is lower but significant. The spatial
distribution of trees affected in particular years is shown in Fig. 8.

Table 7: Calendar year, damaged trees, living trees, percentage of damaged trees, weight
values for the detected growth disturbances, weight for the spatial distribution along the
torrent, and the calculated coefficient of confidence.

Fig. 8. Spatial distribution of living and damaged trees of four dated events.

5. Discussion
In the present study, 98 P. pinaster trees affected by flash floods have been analyzed
with 241 increment cores to reconstruct flash flood events at Pelayo River (Spanish
Central System) covering the past 50 years. While the time covered by this reconstruction
is much shorter compared to other, non-Mediterranean environments (e.g., Stoffel et al.,
2008; Mayer et al., in review.), our study clearly shows the potential of flash flood analyses
based on information contained in growth-ring series of affected trees. Tree-ring analysis
was complemented with detailed geomorphic mapping focusing on gravel bar formation
according to the classification of Church and Jones (1982) and Cenderelli and Cluer
(1998). The spatial distribution of the gravel bars changes along the torrent. The proximal-
distal ocurrence of channel bars follows the schematic diagram proposed by Church and
Jones (1982). In very high flows, like in the present case, sediment is mobilized from the
channel and flow resistance is accordingly modified when the greatest water and sediment
loads are transported through the channel.
In an attempt to foster our understanding of flash flood impact on trees, we

compared the intensity of dendrogeomorphic evidence on the stem surface with the tree
position relative to the channel. Results are qualitative and indicate that damage intensity
would clearly depend on the position of the tree within or next to the flash flood channel.
Specific weights were determined for different dendrogeomorphic GD following the
procedures of Fantucci (2007) or Fantucci and Sorriso-Valvo (1999). However, and
because of the climate sensitivity of P. pinaster (Alia et al., 1996; Blanco et al., 1997), we
had to adapt the weights suggested by the aforementioned authors and define intensities of
reactions specific for P. pinaster. The use of weights, the quantification of these
parameters, and the coefficient of confidence are new in dendrogeomorphic research and
represent a valuable tool for the definition of flash flood events in Mediterranean
catchments.
Although it represents a widespread species of the Mediterranean landscapes, notably

P. pinaster has rarely been used for dendrochronologic studies. This is mainly because
stands older than 100 years are very difficult to find. In addition, most trees from the lower
mountain level have been wounded artificially for resin extraction in the past (Bogino and
Bravo, 2008), which makes them of limited use for any kind of dendrogeomorphic
research. Provided that we manage to distinguish the disturbances caused by resin
extractors from those caused by flash floods at a wood-anatomical level (Ballesteros et al.,
2010), it might possible to use these artificially damaged but generally much older trees in
future research as well.

We must also stress that dendrogeomorphic reconstructions always yield minimum

frequencies of events. This means that the events dated in this study represent individual
flash floods of the Pelayo River of the last 50 years, but that the period between two
reconstructed events does not necessarily need to be without flash floods (Zielonka et al.,
2008). The dated events presented in this study are well represented, and we are very
confident about these flash floods because (i) GD related to specific events were identified
in a large number of trees, (ii) trees affected were homogenously distributed along the
channel reach studied, and (iii) the intensity of the flash flood “signature” was strong in a
large set of trees.
In addition, we also identify years with a more limited number of primarily weak
signatures, such as in 2003, 1999, 1997, 1990, 1970, and 1956. Based on the reactions
observed in the tree-ring series, we assume that these GD would be the result of flash floods
as well. In some cases, the tree-ring signatures appear to be weak because of strong tree
responses in the growth-ring series resulting from preceding events.
For other years, as e.g., 1989, neighbouring catchments registered intense flash flood
events (Ballesteros et al., 2010) that make the presence of a simultaneous event in the
Pelayo River more probable. Another limitation of dendrogeomorphic work based on P.
pinaster becomes obvious for the possible event of 1999, when late and weak GD were
preferably added to an event in 2000 for which several injuries could be used for accurate
dating of a high intensity event.
Based on the above considerations, we believe that there are two types of flash flood
events at Pelayo River: on one hand, we identify flash floods characterized by high
magnitude but low frequency. These events are capable of causing major damage to the
vegetation and could be reconstructed in the growth-ring series of a large number of trees.
On the other hand, we identify a second type of event of smaller magnitude and higher
frequency, but still large enough to occasionally cause less severe damage to the vegetation.
Such a separation of higher frequency–lower magnitude from lower frequency–higher
magnitude events may improve magnitude-frequency analysis of flash floods and hazard
estimation in the future.

6. Conclusions
This paper clearly illustrates the strength of dendrogeomorphology in flash flood

analysis and documents how dating of past events can be improved in areas where the lack
of historical documents, rainfall, and discharge data prevents the use of traditional
methods. In addition, the detailed analysis of geomorphology and GD in trees also revealed
that a good correlation exists between the energy of geomorphic processes and forms and
the energy necessary to cause the damage observed in the trees. Based on these parameters
we were able to date seven well represented, larger magnitude flash flood events and seven
weak intensity events over the last 50 years.
The use of weights and coefficients of confidence is new in dendrogeomorphic

research and represents a valuable tool for the definition of flash flood events, as they
provide the primary data necessary for the determination of flash flood frequency and for
the realization of hazard estimations in ungauged Mediterranean mountain catchments.
Acknowledgements
The authors want to express their gratitude to the Ministry of Science and Innovation, for financial
support and for the grant for a 3 months research stay in Bern (Switzerland). This work was founded by
CICYT, Dendro-Avenidas project (CGL2007-62063) and for the Geological Survey of Spain. We are
grateful to the Tagus Water Authority, Enviroment Department of Castilla y León in Ávila, and Guisando
Council for their collaboration. We want to adreess our special thanks to forester Gloria Suárez-García for
her assitance in the field. Last but not least, we offer our gratitude to the anonymous reviewers for their
helpful comments.

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4.2. FREQUENCY AND

CHARACTERIZATION OF FLASH
FLOODS
(4.2) 1. Introduction
(4.2) 2. Study Region
(4.2) 3. Material and Methods
3.1. Historical Documentation
3.3. Instrumental data
3.4. Estimation of peak discharge
3.5. Incorporation of uncertainties in FFA
(4.2) 4. Results
4.1. Flash flood chronology and classification
4.2. Estimates of flash flood discharges and
uncertainties
4.3. Flood frequency analysis (FFA)
4.3.1. At-site FFA combining historical data and
longer instrumental series
4.3.2. At-site FFA using a short data series and
longer historical information
4.3.3. At-site FFA using only historical information
4.3.4. Regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA)

(4.2) 5. Discussion
5.1. Interpretation and value of data from
documentary sources
5.2. Interpretation and value of tree-ring data
5.3. Seasonality, meteorological causes and flood
envelopes
5.4. Flash flood frequency
(4.2) 6. Conclusions
REFERENCE:
Ruiz-Villanueva, V., Díez-Herrero, A., Bodoque, J.M., Ballesteros, J.A., Stoffel, M.
(2012). Characterization of flash floods in small ungauged mountain basins of
Central Spain using an integrated approach. Catena, Submitted 28 August. Under
review 14 September.

ABSTRACT
One of the main problems of flood frequency analysis (FFA) is the lack of
hydrological input data and related uncertainties. In an attempt to overcome these
problems, we use archival records, dendrogeomorphic time series and instrumental data
(daily rainfall and discharge) from four ungauged and poorly gauged mountain basins in
Central Spain to reconstruct and compile information on 41 flash flood events since the
end of the 19th century. Estimation of historical discharge and the incorporation of
uncertainty for the at-site and regional FFA were performed with an empirical rainfall-
runoff assessment as well as stochastic and Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo
(MCMC) approaches. Results for each of the ungauged basins include fluctuations in
flood frequency, flood severity, their seasonality and triggers (synoptic meteorological
situations). The reconstructed data series clearly demonstrate how uncertainty can be
reduced by including historical information, but also points to the considerable influence
of different approaches on quantile estimation. This uncertainty should be taken into
account when these data are used for flood risk management.
Keywords: historical floods, palaeohydrology, dendrogeomorphology, ungauged

basins, flood frequency analysis.


1. Introduction
The evaluation of floods occurring in small mountain basins requires an accurate

definition of the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall and discharge, for which an
extensive network of precipitation and streamflow gauging stations is needed. However,
this type of network is rarely available in mountain areas in general and for Spain in
particular (Rico et al., 2001). Hence, much of the instrumental data available is too short
to yield reliable and representative information and thus adds considerable uncertainty to
the determination of large return periods of catastrophic events (Brázdil et al., 2006). Even
more generally, the consequent lack of data largely hampers the analysis of flood magnitude
and frequency and calls for the application of alternative or complementary approaches.
Documentary records (such as systematic records by the government, ecclesiastical

archives or newspaper reports) have been considered as an alternative source of data about
historical floods (Benito et al., 2004; Barriendos and Cour, 2004). Eyewitness reports on
floods in ungauged basins have been used as well in the past and form yet another source of
information in historical hydrology and palaeohydrology (Benito et al., 2003;
Thorndycraft et al., 2006; Brazdil et al., 2006). The transformation of these qualitative
data into numerical values is standard practice in studies of historical climatology or
palaeohydrology (Martin-Vide and Barriendos, 1995; Barriendos and Coeur, 2004; Llasat
et al., 2004; Brázdil et al., 2005, 2010).
The most accurate source of palaeofloods is the identification of palaeostage evidence

such as flood sediments, erosional landforms, drift wood or damage to vegetation (Benito
and Thorndycraft, 2005). As mountain rivers are normally characterized by high stream
power and high sediment transport rates (Johnson et al., 2002) resulting in a highly
variable and changing morphology, flood sediments may not necessarily be deposited nor
preserved. At the same time, however, mountain basins are often forested and the coarse
grained sediment and/or woody debris transported by floods may cause damage to trees.
This damage will typically cause trees to react with specific growth reactions (i.e,
dendrogeomorphology; Alestalo, 1971; Stoffel et al., 2010; Stoffel and Wilford, 2012), and
thus enable dating of past (flash) floods (Yanosky and Jarrett, 2002). The potential of
dendrogeomorphic reconstructions of past events in ungauged basins and the value of this
data for flash flood research have been demonstrated in various studies over the past few
years (Ballesteros et al., 2010a, 2010b, 2011a and 2011b; Ruiz-Villanueva et al., 2010;
Díez-Herrero et al., 2012; Stoffel et al., 2012). In addition to yielding information on the
frequency or the spatial extent of past events, information conserved in tree-ring records
also enable the reconstruction of events with at least annual and sometimes even seasonal

precision (Stoffel et al., 2008), and may, moreover, provide information regarding river
dynamics (Arbellay et al., 2012).
Based on the above considerations, this study takes into account non-instrumental
data sources (tree-ring records and documents) in order to improve at-site and regional
FFA in ungauged and poorly gauged mountain basins of central Spain (Sierra de Gredos)
where the lack of instrumental data (flow data) prevents the use of traditional methods for
the characterization of flash floods. In particular, the paper aims at (i) reconstructing the
most complete catalogue of past flash floods in the study area, (ii) analyzing the fluctuation
in frequency and severity, their seasonality, synoptic meteorological causes as well as the
human impacts in terms of damage to infrastructures and fatalities. Moreover, (iii) we
address the estimation of historical peak discharge taking into account uncertainties
regarding antecedent conditions and land-use changes so that the results of this study can
be incorporated in flood risk management.
2. Study Region
The basins analyzed in this study are located in the eastern Sierra de Gredos massif
(Province of Avila) of the Spanish Central System (Fig.1) belong to the Tiétar River basin,
a tributary of the Tagus River. Geology in the region is mainly composed of granites
(Upper Palaeozoic granitoids) and covered by a sandy weathering mantle.
Climate of the study area is Continental Mediterranean and characterized by

frequent precipitation in autumn, winter and fall stemming from Atlantic depressions
from the SW and by very dry summers associated to the presence of the Azores anticyclone
(only 10% of annual precipitation). Annual precipitation at Guisando (800 m asl) is 1913
mm.
Vegetation is abundant in the area and dominated by Pinus pinaster Ait. in the
headwaters and deciduous forests (Quercus pyrenaica Wahl. and Quercus ilex L.) in the
lower parts of the study region. European alder (Alnus glutinosa (L.)) and narrow-leaved
ash (Fraxinus angustifolia Vhal.) predominate in the river corridors. Tree clearance has
been practiced in the study areas in the past and is still being practiced today.
This study focuses on four ungauged (Arenal and Pelayo Rivers) or poorly gauged
(Arenal River at Arenas de San Pedro and Santa Maria River at Candeleda) basins. The

Pelayo is a tributary of the Arenal river; it crosses the village of Guisando (765 inhabitants)
and two camp sites. The Arenal is a tributary of the Tiétar River and crosses the village of
Arenas de San Pedro (~6900 inhabitants), where a stream gauge (automatic hydrological
information system (AHIS) station) has been installed in 2001 (119 km2 drainage area).
The neighboring basin of the Santa Maria River crosses the village of Candeleda (~5145
inhabitants) where a stream gauge exists since 1973. The main characteristics of these
basins are summarized in Table 1.
Despite the fact that at least 18 people have been killed by floods in the study area
and vicinity over the past 70 years, flood frequency studies or flood risk management plans
are still missing so far in the area.
Figure 1: Location of the four basins analyzed.

Table 1: Main morphometric characteristics of the four basins analyzed in this study. Note
the existence of an automatic hydrological information system (AHIS) station for the
Arenal River and of a stream gauge at Candeleda for the Santa Maria River (located in
Figure 1).
3. Data acquisition and methods
For the purpose of this study, different approaches were combined and data
integrated in order to obtain a detailed characterization of flash floods in the study area
(Fig. 2).

Figuree 2: Methoddological floowchart of the

t study.
3.1. Histo
orical Do
ocumenttation
Written doocumentaryy sources (ee.g., municip pal archivess, newspapeers, civil protection
documments and scientific papers) weere screeneed systemattically to oobtain (in--) direct
mation on the impact that past pprecipitatioon and floo
inform od events haave had on n people,
their ggoods and services. Qualitative
Q ddata gathered from thhese sourcess were tran nsformed
into nnumerical indices
i folllowing Barrriendos an nd Coeur (2004) andd Bullón (2 2011) to
derivee data aboutt the type, in
ntensity, duuration and
d date of passt events.
VIRGINIA
In the Pelayo River, tree-ring records of 114 P. pinaster trees (269 samples) were
analyzed along a 2.5-km stretch upstream the village of Guisando so as to detect growth
disturbances (GD) induced by flash floods. Following the protocol suggested by Ruiz-
Villanueva et al. (2010), dating of flash flood events in the Pelayo River was based on (i)
the nature of GD observed in the tree-ring series (i.e., abrupt growth suppression or release,
compression wood, eccentric growth, callus tissue, and injuries); (ii) the intensity of the
GD signal in the tree-ring record; (iii) the overall number of trees affected by an event; as
well as (iv) on the spatial distribution of affected trees along the stream.
In the reach of the Arenal River crossing Arenas de San Pedro village, riparian trees
(A. glutinosa and F. angustifolia) were analyzed over a distance of 3 km. As a result of a
clean-up (logging) of the channel by the Water Authority in 2008, 84 cross-sections could
be analyzed on stumps and thus allowed convenient dating of visible and internal wounds.
At the same time, the absence of entire stems prevented an assessment of scar heights and
presumably prevented detection of scars inflicted at higher positions on the stem. As usual
in dendrogeomorphic studies (Stoffel and Bollschweiler, 2008, 2009), additional
information was obtained for each tree sampled, namely its geomorphic position, tree
coordinates, or description of external disturbances. In the case of the Arenal River, the
dating of past flood events was accepted if at least two scars were identified in different
trees at the same year.
3.3. Instrumental data
The rain gauge network of central Spain is sparse and unevenly distributed, covering
mainly valley and lowland areas, thus leaving mountainous regions behind with very
limited data (Buytaert et al., 2006). In addition, hydrometeorological networks in the area
mainly provide daily data starting at best in the early twentieth century. Usually, however,
time series start in the 1950 only or even later, and many stations have been removed,
relocated or completely stopped in the early 21st century.
This study builds on three rain gauges located in the area (Fig. 1) providing daily data
for the time window covered with documentary and tree-ring sources. The AHIS are

continuously recording meteorological parameters; and they have been operational only
since 2001.
The network of flow gauges is very much centered in large river basins, and the few
existing records from smaller mountain catchments are usually short and were not installed
before 1973. Figure 1 illustrates that eight stream gauges exists in the mountain ranges of
the wider study area and in basins similar to those studied here.
3.4. Estimation of peak discharge
Documentary sources and tree-ring data were then used to infer flood frequency.
Unlike Ballesteros et al. (2011), where a large number of scars in injured trees could be
used to reconstruct peak discharge as well, we had to derive flood magnitude from daily
rainfall records in the present case.
Daily precipitation data was first transformed into mean areal precipitation for each
of the four basins using traditional techniques (Chow et al., 1988). Precipitation analysis
was different for the event of 1936, since only one station was available in this case and the
correlation (linear regression) between this station and the others had to be tested in order
to estimate the mean areal precipitation.
Based on the precipitation estimates for each flood event we performed an empirical
rainfall-runoff assessment (based on rational method following Témez 1991, Ferrer 1993
and Rico et al. 2005) and used a stochastic approach to estimate peak discharge. The runoff
coefficient C (0≤ C ≥1) is an important diagnostic variable for catchment response
(Marchi et al., 2010) and depends mainly on antecedent conditions, land use and soil
cover. Since these conditions may not be well known for past events, the runoff coefficient
C has been treated as a stochastic variable here with a known uniform distribution over an
interval (a, b), where a represents the lower bound equal to 0.2, and b is the upper bound
was equal to 0.6. These boundaries were selected based on the values proposed by Marchi
et al. (2010) who found the range 0.23 to 0.56 for extreme flash floods in the
Mediterranean region. Based on the normalized and cumulative histograms showing the
stochastic tendencies of the data set, a goodness-of-fit table is displayed with various
probability distributions and the best estimates for their parameters. The Monte Carlo
simulation then provided the mean and standard deviation for each simulated discharge
event.

The procedure described above was then validated using the records from the stream
gauge located in Candeleda and in Arenal AHIS (for the time period between 2001 and
2008) so as to analyze the accuracy of the approach and the assumed error.
3.5. Incorporation of uncertainties in flood frequency analysis
The flood frequency analysis is applied to three cases with different quantities and
types of data: (i) at-site frequency analysis for Candeleda combining historical information
from 1936 and instrumental data series since 1973 (ii) at-site frequency analysis for the
Arenal AHIS station using the short instrumental data series (2001–2011) and the longer
historical estimates; and (iii) a regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) using all available
flow data from the stream gauges located in the mountains and based on the flood-index
method.
For the FFA, a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure (Reis and
Stedinger, 2005) was used, as it can handle information from historical and instrumental
observations through adequately defined likelihood functions in a straightforward way,
and more importantly, as it can account for uncertainties in hydrologic extremes and as it
provides estimates of confidence bounds for the estimated quantiles (Gaal et al., 2010).
We used a code based on the package nsRFA (non-supervised Regional Frequency

Analysis) of the R statistical software (Viglione, 2009) specifically developed for FFA. An
in-depth description of the method can be found in Gaal et al. (2010) and Gaume et al.
(2010). Similar to Hosking and Wallis (1997) the focus of this analysis was on flood peak
and the approach used was the index-flood method of Dalrymple (1960).
In a final step, results of this study were comapred with an existing regional model of
maximum discharge for the western part of Tagus Basin (Mediero and Jiménez, 2001;
CEDEX, 2011).

4. Results
4.1. Flash flood chronology and classification
Results from the Pelayo study showed that tree ages reach up to ~100 years. Scars or
injuries were only occasionally found (<10%) whereas other GD were much more
frequently observed (280 cases) in the 114 trees investigated. GD could be found in 22
years, of which eight showed a large number of visible GD in a representative number of
trees; these eight years were considered as the most reliable flash flood events.
In the Arenal River, the age of the riparian trees reached up to ~50 years. A total of
147 injuries was detected in the 84 trees analyzed and in 24 different years. The oldest scar
was inflicted in 1953. Several samples contained more than 2 injuries (and up to 7 in the
same cross section). The largest number of scars (16 which is the 11% of all the entire
population) was found in 1997. Based on the number of trees affected at the same time
(and by the same event), reconstruction of past flash floods was considered very reliable for
12 events.
Comparison of tree-ring records from the two catchments points to 34 years with
dendrogeomorphic evidence of flash flood activity, of which 14 coincide between the two
rivers. The documentary sources provided information on 49 events since 19th century.
The 14 event years identified in the tree-ring records of the Pelayo and Arenal Rivers were
then contrasted with the events identified in the documentary sources in order to assign
occurrence dates to each event. The final database of archival used for further analysis
therefore contains 41 events (Fig. 3) and is restricted to flash floods registered in
documentary sources, events registered both documents and tree-ring records as well as
events simultaneously recorded in a large number of trees but without analogues in written
sources.

CAPÍTULO /CHAPTER
C 4
Figurre 3: Regionnal flood eve

vent chronol
ology based on
o documenentary sourcces and tree ring
dataa from the PPelayo and Arenal
A Riveers.
Fiigure 3 alsso shows periods

p whhere inform mation on flash floodds is missing in
documeentary recoords, becausse municipaality archivves are geneerally missinng from 18 870 to
1900, annd presumaably as a ressult of the C Civil War in n Spain for the period 1936–1940. The
apparen nt increase in
i flood eveents since tthe 1950s, on o the otheer hand, is mmainly due to the
emergen nce of severral newspap An accurate dating
pers and thee contributiion of tree-rring data. A
of eventts was possiible in 36 caases (Fig. 4)), pointing to
t a majoritty of eventss in fall (60%
%) and
a large m
minority in spring (40% %).
A
As shown inn the figure 4, 40% of them have occurred in the sprinng-summer season
while 60% in autumn-winter.. This seasoonality coulld be related
d to differennt meteoro
ological
forcing expressed in the Fig.4..
A 154 TESIS DOCTO
Figure 4: Seasonalityy of flash floood events and

a possible
le triggeringg conditionss.
4.2. Estim
mates of flash floo
od dischaarges and
d uncertaainties
harge was computed based on areal preccipitation aand morph

Peak disch hometric
parammeters (Table 2) using a coefficiennt of determ
mination for the modeel validation
n of 0.83
d an uncerrtainty of the metho
and 00.85, respecctively, and od <17% w without siggnificant
ween observvation and simulation
differeences betw n (p-value <0.5 at thhe 95% con nfidence
intervval).
For the Areenal River at

a AHIS staation, the loower bound
d of the calcuulation (Q reduced
in Tabble 2) was used
u for the frequency analysis as thet dam loccated at Cueevas River as a well as
severaal dikes andd irrigation systems, wh
which may laaminate disscharge, aree not directtly taken
into aaccount in thhe rainfall-rrunoff apprroach.
VIRGINIA
Table 2: Discharge estimates (mean and standard deviation) for the four study sites (units
are in m3 s–1). No data was available for cells given in grey.

4.3. Floo
od frequeency analysis
1. At-sitee FFA com

4.3.1 mbining hisstorical daata and lonnger
instrummental serries
The at-sitee FFA at Candeleda

C i s based on gauged daata of instanntaneous discharge
d
(annuual maximuum) since 1973
1 and oon estimates of the 19936 event iin the Santta María
River (Figure 5).
Figurre 5: Fittedd GEV distriibutions: (a)

a) using the instrumenttal records ssince 1973;; (b) the
insstrumental records
r andd the 1936 eestimates in
ncluding un
ncertainty (hh=70, X0= =300).
The inclussion of histtorical infoormation evvidently reduces the uncertaintyy in the

quanttile estimatees (Table 3). If the 19936 estimatte is treatedd as instrum mental (i.e. without
any un
ncertainty), an increase in the connfidence interval rate canc be obseerved, which h is even
higherr than just the
t instrummental fittinng, as well ass an increasee in the quaantiles.
VIRGINIA
Table 3: Estimation of discharge quantiles’ maximum likelihood Q(ML) corresponding to

return periods T= 10, 50, 100 and 500 years. CI0.05 (CI0.95) is the 5% (95%) confidence
limit of the estimates Q(ML), ΔCI = CI0.95- CI0.05. Grey highlights the lowest ΔCI and
ΔCI/Qt values.
4.3.2. At-site FFA using a short data series and longer historical
information
The at-site FFA at Arenal River AHIS station is based on a short data series of
annual maximum discharge since 2001 and estimated discharge from longer historical
records (Fig. 6), whereby different mechanisms of frequency fitting are applied.

Figur
ure 6: Fittedd GEV distriributions baased on instr trumental data
da and (a)) iincluding the t four
large
gest historica
cal events (i.ee. the higheest magnituude from alll estimates)) w
with uncerrtainty;
insttrumental records
r andd (b) all estim
mates with uncertainty
u y based on hhistorical reecords.
The inclussion of histtorical infoormation evvidently reduces the uncertaintyy in the

quanttile estimattes and homogenizes uncertaintty (shown by the linne slope), but b very
signifi
ficant differrences exist in the quaantiles dep
pending on the param meters used and the
assum
mptions regaarding unceertainty. Taable 4 summ marizes all teests and com
mpares resu
ults with
the quuantiles proovided by AHIS stationn.
VIRGINIA
Table 4: Estimation of the discharge quantiles Q(ML) for Arenal River at AHIS station
corresponding to the return periods T = 10, 50, 100, 500. CI0.05 (CI0.95) is the 5% (95%)
confidence limit of the estimates Q(ML), ΔCI = CI0.95- CI0.05. Grey highlights the lowest
ΔCI and ΔCI/Qt values.

4.3.3. At-site FFFA using o

only historical information
Instrumenttal flow records do nott exist for the Pelayo and

a Arenal Rivers at Guisando
G
nal River at Arenas de San Pedro.. Estimates for these reeaches weree treated
and foor the Aren
as insstrumental records in a first staage, before the dataset of eventss was divid ded into
instruumental andd historical in an iteratiive process (Fig. 7).
Fig
ig. 7: Fittedd GEV distriibutions forr the Pelayoo River at Guisando
G (A
A and B) andd the
Arennal River at Arenas
A de San
S Pedro vvillage (C an nd D), withh discharge eestimates trreated as
instr
trumental reecords (A and
an C) and aas instrumeental record ds with the eexception of
o the 4
(5)) largest even
ents which were
w conside dered historirical events with
w uncerttainty (B an nd D).
VIRGINIA
CAPÍTULO /CHAPTER
C 4
T
The inclusioon of some events as hhistorical afffects the co onfidence iintervals, an
nd this
effect reemains visibble indepenndently of tthe numberr of large evvents (only 1936, the two
t or
the fourr largest eveents with un
ncertainty) included in
n the analysis (data nott shown).
4.3.4. Regional
R flood frequuency analysis (RFFA
A)
R
Regional quaantiles weree estimated based on th he index-floood methodd and the MCMC M
approacch using eigght concord dant stationns from a homogeneou
h us region (H H=1.39, D<2.14,
N=8). A total of 11 probability disttribution functions f were
w testedd (K=0.37)) with
estimateed initial parameters
p of
o 0.6067, 0.5548, and -0.1183. The MCM MC approacch was
first useed for the gaauged dataset and incluuding the esstimates forr the three bbasins (Fig. 8).
Figuree 8: (A) Reggional gauge

ged data set;; (B) regiona
nal includingg the wholee set of estim
mated
ent dischargges.
even
A 162 TESIS DOCTO
5. Discussion
In this study 41 past floods have been documented based on historical sources and
dendrogeomorphic evidence. The veracity of the compiled data is supported by its high
level of temporal and spatial coherence and by the correspondence between the events
described in the documents and those recognized in tree-ring records.
The only available common data between the datasets was daily rainfall, which was
consequently used to estimate peak discharge for most of the documented events. We
combined an empirical rainfall-runoff assessment with a stochastic approach so as to
transform daily data into peak discharge for each event. This simple empirical assessment
has been extensively used in Spain (Díez-Herrero, 2001; Potenciano, 2004; Rico et al.,
2005; Ortega, 2007) for the assessment of peak flows in natural watersheds with surface
areas up to 3000 km2 and concentration times ranging from 1 to 24 hours. Validation of
the method revealed that estimates were associated with 17% error, which is relatively
small for past flood reconstructions (peak discharge estimates of historical floods by
hydraulic calculations have errors up to 25% according to Reis and Stedinger, 2005).
The most important assumption of this study was the treatment of the runoff
coefficient as a stochastic variable since antecedent conditions, land use and other
parameters are not known for past events. Boundaries (0.2-0.6) were established based on
the findings of Marchi et al. (2010) who obtained values in the range of 0.23 to 0.56 for the
Mediterranean region. Merz et al. (2006), in contrast, related runoff coefficients with flood
type, and found that smallest runoff coefficients (median 0.15) are associated with flash
floods, short-rain floods (0.36), whereas slightly larger values are produced by long-term
rainfalls (0.38) and the largest runoff coefficients (0.63) are associated with snowmelt
floods.
5.1. Interpretation and value of data from documentary sources
The event classification based on documentary sources (archives) proved to be a good

approximation to past flood conditions since most of the events classified as high and
medium intensity events were indeed related to high flow discharge (1936, 1963, 1995,
1999, 2000, and 2003). The high intensity events were apparently clustered in the early

20th century (i.e. four out of seven high intensity events occurred in 1902, 1922, 1927, and
1928). As floods were classified based on damage to infrastructures (bridge and roads
damages) and not on casualties (Barriendos and Coeur, 2004), it seems possible that the
great differences in quality of structures may have influenced the classification. On the
other hand, however, events that caused fatalities in the region (i.e. 1936, 1959, 1982,
1990, and 1999), were not necessarily high-intensity (high-magnitude) events, but floods
took place during late summer or early autumn during these years, when tourism causes the
population in this region to increase substantially.
5.2. Interpretation and value of tree-ring data
Dendrogeomrphic evidence in riparian trees has been used here to date the
occurrence and frequency of past floods, but not for a direct estimation of flood
magnitude. Although there is no perfect correlation between the number of scarred trees
(or growth disturbances) and discharge estimates, we still observe a tendency for more
evidence in trees during larger events, especially at Pelayo River where a confidence
coefficient (Ruiz-Villanueva et al., 2010) was used rather than the absolute number of
injuries (as in the Arenal River).
Tree age was the most important limitation of dendrogeomorphology at this study
site (Stoffel et al., 2010), as vegetation growing within the area of fluvial activity does not
normally reach high ages (<70 yr in the present study).
According to Gottesfeld (1996), Zielonka et al. (2008) or Ballesteros et al. (2011a,

2011b), scars on trees are most likely caused by transported logs and probably also by
bedload (boulders and stones). The formation of scars generally requires high flow, the
presence of debris in the channel as well as impacts in tree stems growing on stream banks
(Diez-Herrero et al., 2012), which in fact may be accidental (Zielonka et al., 2008).
Affected trees might have disappeared from the stream and banks since the last event,
either through natural processes or anthropogenic interventions. The series of
reconstructed flood events should not therefore be treated as a complete dataset and the
total number of growth signatures for each event cannot be used as a direct proxy (St.
George and Nielsen, 2003).
Woody material with different stages of decay and various dimensions was present
along the study reach of the Arenal River, as were granite boulders in both the Arenal and

Pelayo Rivers (boulders are much larger and more abundant in the latter). The large
presence of woody debris may explain the predominance of scarred trees at Arenal River
and the formation of impacts by floating wood, whereas the scarcity of woody debris and
the predominance of bedload transport may explain the rare occurrence of injuries in trees
in the Pelayo River,. In addition, differences in tree species composition (P. pinaster trees
with thick and protective bark in Pelayo River and more vulnerable, thin-barked riparian
trees in Arenal River), tree density and river slope may have contributed to these
differences as well.
Most of the disturbance events recorded in the tree-ring records could be successfully
related to documentary information of flood events, and those without analogues in the
written archives occurred in the year after the largest events. Noteworthy, the largest
estimated magnitude floods (1936, 1963, 1997, 1999, 2000, and 2005) are in concert with
those years best represented in the dendrogeomorphic record in both the Arenal and
Pelayo Rivers, with the exception of 1936 for which tree age was not sufficient to be
recorded in the trees.
For the years where dendrogeomorphic evidence was clearly visible but documentary
information missing (1966, 1973, 1976, and 1984), we hypothesize that large quantities of
recently deposited solids (sediment and wood) could have been remobilized even by
moderate flows. We therefore speculate that dendrogeomorphic evidence is not always and
necessarily related to extreme events, but that damage can also be inflicted to trees by
ordinary high flows. In that sense, and provided that tree-ring evidence is used in rivers in
absence of other types of documentary data, dendrogeomorphic time series should be
analyzed carefully and more in terms of a contribution to river dynamics rather than as an
exclusive indicator of high flows.
5.3. Seasonality, meteorological causes and flood envelopes
The reconstructed seasonality of floods in the study region could be related to

different meteorological forcings, among which three predominate: (i) convective
precipitation events, which are locally and temporally limited; (ii) precipitation events
caused by wet spells (rain or snowfall) lasting several days or weeks; and (iii) situations of
generally persistent instability lasting for more than a month or an entire season (Benito
and Machado, 2012; Bullón, 2011). Zonal circulation at low latitude (35-45° N) generally
causes significant and persistent rainfall and floods in the Tagus basin (Trigo et al., 2004;

Benito, 2006 and 2008) in which the study sites are located. At the local (basin) scale, a
negative trend exists between discharge and the NAO index, with the largest flood events
documented here being related to highly negative values of the NAO index in 1936, 1963,
1996, or 1997. As such they may be associated with wet conditions in the western
Mediterranean and North Africa (Wanner et al., 1994) and cold air in northern Europe.
For the older period for which discharges could not be estimated (1849-1936), local
data was compared with records at the basin scale. According to Benito et al. (2003), the
period 1870–1900 shows a substantial increase in the frequency of extraordinary floods in
the Tagus Basin, whereas Barriendos (1997) identifies a phase between 1840–1859 for
which a sharp increase in floods and a decrease in droughts. Similar data also exists for
catchments of Eastern and Southeast Spain (Barriendos and Martín-Vide, 1998)
particularly for the period 1830–1870, with a maximum period from 1848 to 1868 and
peaks between 1851–1857 and 1859–1860, and another period between 1916 and 1951,
with peaks between 1917 and 1928. The most exceptional floods affecting the entire Tagus
basin were recorded in 1936, 1941, and 1947, as well as in 1917, 1924, and 1928, in its
headwaters (Benito et al., 2003). Our findings corroborate the body of evidence on past
floods in the Tagus basin and we observe the documented events of 1849, 1853, 1856,
1865, 1919, 1922, 1927, 1928, and 1932 in study region as well. Their occurrence over
large areas also leads us to hypothesize that they were at least of medium or high intensity
and that they were related to intense rainfalls affecting a large part of the Tagus basin.
This seasonality of floods observed in this study also agrees with the distribution
documented by Gaume et al. (2009) or Marchi et al. (2010) for European flood events in
general and for the Mediterranean region in particular.
Our study also shows that the largest magnitude flood of the 20th century in the
study area occurred in 1936 when flow records and gauging stations did not exist in the
wider study region. We therefore compared the estimates of this flood event with data
from the catalogue of maximum observed floods in Spain (IAHS, 2004) and the regional
envelope curve (REC). Our analysis shows quite clearly that the 1936 flood is located in
the upper bound of the REC (Fig. 9).

Figurre 9: Cataloogue of maxximum obseerved floodsds in Spain (A

AHIS, 200404) and estimmates of
the 11936 floodd in the study
dy region (fo
four catchmeents analyzeed). The bla
lack line reppresents
the regionaal envelope ccurve (REC
C) of the AHIS
AH databaase.
If comparee with the envelope

e cuurves describbed in the literature
l foor maximum
m floods
in Eurrope (Casteellarin et all., 2007; Gaaume et al., 2009; Marrchi et al., 22010; Taroolli et al.,
2012)), dischargee per unit area of thee 1936 even nt will fall below theese curves, with an
approoximate envvelope curvee equation: Q u=20.82·A–0.29.
5.4. Flashh flood frrequencyy
nalytical steep, this studdy aimed at incorporaating data oon historicaal floods
In a last an
gatherred from documentaryy sources aand tree-rin ng records into at-site and regionnal flood
frequeency analyssis (FFA an nd RFFA, respectivelyy). For thiss purpose a Bayesian Markov
chain Monte Caarlo (MCMC) framew work (Kuczeera, 1999; Reis
R and Steedinger, 200 05; Gaal
VIRGINIA
et al., 2010; Gaume et al., 2010) was used and a likelihood function was built so as to
properly handle the information on historical floods. Following Gaume et al. (2010), we
considered that accurate data on extremes (in terms of discharge) are not absolutely
necessary in such analysis as the dominant information needed is the number of non-
exceedances of a perception threshold (X0) and the historical period (h).
For the period covered by instrumental records, floods are characterized by their
peak flow values, whose determination are neither easy nor accurate, and may be
accompanied by uncertainty or measurement errors. Therefore, it is essential to verify the
value of the maximum peak stage, because approaching the river during a flood may be
impossible (Brazdil et al., 2006). This uncertainty has been avoided in this work due to the
lack of data; just the uncertainty in the discharge estimates has been taken into account.
The challenge of our study is caused by the flood of 1936, as this event was larger
than any discharge recorded during periods covered by continuous hydrological records
and therefore influences the flood frequency analyses. In the Santa Maria basin at
Candeleda village, for instance, the inclusion of historical information evidently reduces
uncertainty and affects quantile estimates. The relatively small reduction in quantiles may
be explained by the fact that the historical estimate of the 1936 event is fraud by relatively
large errors (Reis and Stedinger, 2005), but results including this historical extreme still
seem more reliable since the confidence bounds are reduced significantly.
The particular case of Arenal river at AHIS station is the most difficult to address
with the available data. A short data series exists, and a longer series of historical estimates
has been incorporated in different ways. In all cases, quantiles provided by the regional
approach (as proposed by CAUMAX) seem to be overestimated (underestimated), but
they generally remain within the same order of magnitude and the confidence intervals.
The most important differences between conventional series and those including
tree-ring and documentary sources are found in the regional approach, for which larger
quantiles are observed. This is similar to findings by Gaume et al. (2010) for the Gard
region in France, where the quantile estimation including ungauged events was multiplied
by a factor >2, presumably because of a limited set of ungauged events and a short period
covered by the gauged series. Figure 10 illustrates differences in quantile estimation based
on different approaches, and the related uncertainties expressed by μ1, σ1 μ2 and σ2 (i.e.
mean and standard deviation of quantiles).

Figurre 10: (A annd C) Dischharge for dififferent retuurn periods for

f all FFA
A and RFFA A tests in
thee ungauged basins.
b μ1 and
an σ1 are mmean and staandard deviiation for eaach return period
p
coomputing alla tests, μ2 and
a σ2 are m mean and sttandard devviation for aat-site tests and
CAU UMAX but w without RFFA
RF (see B and D).
Note how thet estimation of the llargest quan ntiles (500 years)
y may bbe strongly affected
depennding on the t treatm ment of thee data, beecoming up p twice vaalue (Fig.10 0). The
underrestimation may resultt in an undderestimatioon of the risk, r but at the same timet the
overesstimation could result in an econoomic overesstimation as well in thee risk manaagement.
Becauuse of this uncertainty in
i the quanntile estimattion, flood hazard
h mapps may be co onceived
since a probabiility appro oach (Rom manowicz and a Beven,, 2003; B ates et al.,. 2004;
Pappeenberger et al., 2006) as
a determiniistic approaaches normaally do not ttake any acccount of
ncertaintiess (Bates et al., 2004; M erz et al., 20005, 2007; Di
the un D Baldassaarre et al., 2010).
VIRGINIA
6. Conclusions
This study focused on the reconstruction of `real floods´ occurring in small,

ungauged or poorly gauged mountain basins of Central Spain. Historical documents
allowed analysis of flood seasonality and inferred meteorological causes. In addition, tree-
ring records were used to complement documentary sources as well as to improve
understanding of river dynamics.
An empirical rainfall-runoff method was combined with a stochastic approach in

order to incorporate uncertainty related to past land uses or antecedent conditions during
past events. Through the incorporation of (several subsets of) data on historical floods
with associated uncertainty, we calculated different FFA and RFFA and evaluated the
influence of varying approaches on the estimation of quantiles in at-site and regional
analyses. This study was successful in demonstrating that uncertainty decreases if historical
data is included, but that quantile estimates can be affected quite strongly depending on
the approach used. This uncertainty should be taken into account when historical data is
used for flood risk purposes or management plans. The flood hazard mapping since a
probabilistic approach may be used to take this uncertainty in consideration. Although this
study is focused on only four basins, we are confident that the proposed methods can be
transposed easily to any other ungauged or poorly gauged basin.
Acknowledgement:
The authors would like to express their gratitude to the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation,
for financial support. This work was founded by the MAS Dendro-Avenidas project (CGL2010-19274)
and the Geological Survey of Spain (IGME). We are grateful to the Tagus Water Authority and
Meteorological Agency (AEMET) for having provided meteorological data; the Environment Department
of Castilla y León in Ávila, Arenas de San Pedro and Guisando Councils (particularly to Nuria Blázquez,
Gloria Suárez and Sixto Díaz) for their collaboration. Our special thanks to Fernando Palacios for
providing historical data and his help in the search of archival data. We would also like to mention the
collaboration of TRAGSA in the sampling of cross-sections of trees. The authors want to express her
gratitude to J.A. Fernández-Yuste for his helpful comments on frequency analysis.

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4.3. RECONSTRUCTION OF A FLASH FLOOD

WITH LARGE WOOD TRANSPORT
(4.3). 1. Introduction
(4.3). 2. Study area and the flash flood event
2.1. The Arroyo Cabrera catchment
2.2. The 1997 flash flood event and wood recruitment
(4.3). 3. Methodology
3.1 Indirect peak discharge estimation
3.2. Hydraulic and wood clogging simulation
3.3. Hydrometeorological analysis
(4.3). 4. Results
4.1. Indirect estimation results
4.2. Hydraulic results and hazard pattern evaluation
4.3. Rainfall field configuration and rainfall-runoff results
(4.3). 5. Discussion
5.1. Palaeoflood discharge estimation
5.2. Hydrodynamic reconstruction and influence on hazard
patterns
5.3. Hydrometeorological simulation
(4.3). 6. Conclusions
REFERENCE:
Ruiz-Villanueva, V., Bodoque, J.M., Díez-Herrero, A., Eguibar, M.A. Pardo-Igúzquiza, E.
(2012). Reconstruction of a flash flood with large wood transport and its influence
on hazard patterns in an ungauged mountain basin. Hydrological Processes.
DOI: 10.1002/hyp.9433


ABSTRACT
The reconstruction of past flash floods in ungauged basins leads to a high level of
uncertainty, which increases if other processes are involved such as the transport of large
wood material. An important flash flood occurred in 1997 in Venero Claro (Central
Spain) causing significant economic losses. The wood material clogged bridge sections,
raising the water level upstream. The aim of this study was to reconstruct this event,
analysing the influence of woody debris transport on the flood hazard pattern. Since the
reach in question was affected by backwater effects due to bridge clogging, using only
HWM or PSI may overestimate discharges, and so other methods are required to estimate
peak flows. Therefore, the peak discharge was estimated (123 ± 18 m3 s-1) using indirect
methods; but 1D-hydraulic simulation was also used to validate these indirect estimates
through an iterative process (127 ± 33 m3 s-1), and reconstruct the bridge obstruction to
obtain the blockage ratio during the 1997 event (~48%) and the bridge clogging curves.
Rainfall-runoff modelling with stochastic simulation of different rainfall field
configurations also helped to confirm that a peak discharge greater than 150 m3 s-1 is very
unlikely to occur, and that the estimated discharge range is consistent with the estimated
rainfall amount (233 ± 27 mm).
It was observed that the backwater effect due to the obstruction (water level ~7 m)
made the 1997 flood (~35-year return period) equivalent to the 50-year flood. This
allowed the equivalent return period to be defined as the recurrence interval of an event of
specified magnitude which, where LWD is present, is equivalent in water depth and extent
of flooded area to a more extreme event of greater magnitude. These results highlight the
need to include obstruction phenomena in flood hazard analysis.
Keywords: flood hazard analysis, large wood material, ungauged basin, clogging
curves, equivalent return period.


1. Introduction
The high potential risk associated with flash floods in mountain areas is due to a
rapid and complex catchment response (Weingartner et al., 2003). Besides high water
levels in the drainage network, important geomorphic changes and large transport of
material (i.e., wood) must be considered as additional factors.
Spatial and temporal scales of flash floods, combined with the space-time scales of
conventional measurements of rainfall and discharge networks, make it particularly
difficult to characterize these events properly (Borga et al., 2008; Marchi et al., 2009;
Smith et al., 2011). This type of flood phenomenon may therefore be poorly documented
(in terms of data quantity and quality), particularly in mountainous areas (Sivapalan et al.,
2003).
In addition to this, interaction between vegetation and geomorphologic processes in

forested mountain streams is heightened by abundant wood, high stream power and high
sediment transport rates (Johnson et al., 2000). The effects of changing morphology
during the event and the reduction of cross-sectional area due to transported material such
as large wood may mean that risk analysis is not as reliable as expected.
The mobilization of woody material in rivers has been considered in the past, but
very few studies have included this phenomenon in flood hazard and risk analyses (see
Mazzorana et al. (2011) and references cited therein).
The reduction of cross-sectional area due to woody debris transport mentioned

above can cause a quick succession of backwater effects with bed aggradation, channel
avulsion and local scouring processes, ultimately evolving toward embankment/bridge
collapse and floodplain inundations (Diehl, 1997; Lyn et al., 2007; Comiti et al., 2007 and
2008; Mao and Comiti, 2010). As a result, flooded areas are likely to be different from
those predicted from models where the presence of wood is not considered. Whether
bridge clogging will occur or the morphology will change can generally be predicted, at
least in qualitative terms, by river managers, but current hazard maps do not take this into
consideration. In an attempt to solve this issue Mazzorana et al. (2009, 2010, 2011a, 2011b
and 2011c) proposed a stochastic approach together with deterministic analysis to simulate
reliable hazard pattern scenarios incorporating these processes. This highlights the need to
study these processes to reduce the uncertainties associated with stochastic models.
As a result, in ungauged forested mountain basins the reconstruction of this type of

event requires particular attention to process interactions and their effects on critical

stream configurations. This reconstruction of past events will provide a better

understanding of the catchment response and will also improve hazard analysis.
In Spain, hydrometeorological networks mainly provide daily data, but the most
dangerous floods occur in the space of a few hours. This may mean that the hydrologic
response is measured with an inappropriate time interval (Camarasa and Tilford, 2002).
As well as this limitation, the rain gauge network in the Spanish Central System is sparse
and unevenly distributed, covering mainly valley and lowland areas, a common problem in
mountainous regions (Buytaert et al., 2006). Flow gauges are mainly installed in large river
basins, but even where they exist in smaller mountain catchments, the flow time series may
be wrongly recorded during extreme events, due to the damage often caused to gauges by
the event itself or because discharge exceeds recordable levels. This means that a lack of
input data often implies a high level of uncertainty in the assessment of flood hazard and
risk in ungauged mountain basins.
An important flash flood occurred in 1997 in the Arroyo Cabrera catchment, a small
ungauged forested mountain catchment in Central Spain. The documentation of this flash
flood reveals high peak discharges and a complex flood response. The main aim of this
study, therefore, was to reconstruct this event in terms of magnitude and also to
understand the process interaction, particularly how the obstructive effect of wood at
bridges affected the hazard level. Three stages were defined to achieve this objective: (i)
estimation of the flash flood water level and peak discharge; (ii) reconstruction of the
clogging process. (iii) reconstruction of the hydrological catchment response and
estimation of the rainfall required to generate the peak discharge, evaluating different
rainfall field configurations.
This paper also attempts to answer the important question of how large wood affects
the event magnitude and hazard patterns in general. To answer this question the clogging
curves were designed and the concept of an equivalent return period was defined.

2. Study area and the flash flood event
2.1. The Arroyo Cabrera catchment
The study site is in the Arroyo Cabrera catchment, a torrential tributary of the
Alberche River in the Tagus River Basin, on the northern slopes of the Sierra de Gredos,
Spanish Central System (see Figure 1 A and B). The catchment area is over 15.5 km2. The
maximum difference in height within the watershed is 1188 m, and the main channel is
5500 m long, with an average slope of 21.6%.
The bedrock consists of Upper Palaeozoic granitoid covered by superficial

Quaternary formations of conglomerates, gravels, sands and silts.
The local forest stand is formed predominantly by Pinus pinaster Ait., Pinus
sylvestris L. and Quercus pyrenaica Willd. Riparian broadleaved species Alnus glutinosa
(L.), and Fraxinus angustifolia (Vhal.) can be found on both river banks.
The continental Mediterranean climate of the study area is typical of Spanish

medium mountain ranges. The mean annual temperature is 14.6 °C with 554 mm mean
annual rainfall in the lower areas and up to 2000 mm on the higher land (Palacios et al.,
2011). Torrential rainfall events usually occur in autumn and winter, resulting in abundant
surface runoff, sediment mobilization and related flash-flood events. The most important
event identified to date was the 1997 flash flood. Figure 2 shows some of its effects.

Figure 1: (A) Location of the study site within the Spanish Central System. (B) Drainage
basin to the bridge section. The Arroyo Cabrera watershed has been monitored since 2004,
with 6 rain gauges and 1 stream gauge installed (shown on map). (C) Detail of the study
area, with main reaches described in the text. The study site (Reach 5) is marked in red.
2.2. The 1997 flash flood event and wood recruitment
The description of the hydrogeomorphic response and main wood recruitment

processes was extracted from previous works (Díez-Herrero, 2003 and unpublished data),
photographs and field work. Here, a brief description is given of the most important
processes, focused on specific reaches due to their critical configuration. Critical
configurations are understood here as spatial domains where torrential and fluvial
processes have significant consequences in terms of hazardousness. These reaches are
shown in Figure 1.

The chronological description of the 1997 process can be summed up as follows: a

complex sediment-laden flow was triggered by a shallow landslide in Reach 1 (Ruiz-
Villanueva et al., 2011a); this evolved into a hyper-concentrated flow (Bodoque et al.,
2011), which flowed 3.2 km downslope where the sediment transport was partially
deposited, an avulsion took place in Reach 2 (Díez-Herrero, 2003). This process led to an
important change in the drainage network pattern, and remobilized large quantities of
sediment damaging the vegetation within the stream and on the banks.
In Reach 1, wood jams or individual pieces of wood deposited in the channel or on

the riverside were not observed, although several toppled trees were seen lying transversal
or oblique to the flow direction and many uprooted tree stumps. Along this reach the main
recruitment was from processes on the upper slopes and the destabilizing action from the
knock-on effect of the bedload transport.
Three small lobes were deposited upstream of the avulsion point. The secondary
channel developed and extended 1.3 km, breaking away from the main channel after 160
m, with a maximum width of 35 m (between Reaches 3 and 4). While most of the
sediment material was deposited in the lobes or carried away by the main channel, most of
the large woody debris (LWD) delivery was recruited in the secondary channel.
The main channel extended 1.4 km, with maximum width 40 m, until it met the
secondary channel again and they were reunited into a single channel 1 km upstream of the
confluence with the Alberche River.
Reach 3 includes the Trampalones bridge, which was demolished by a large wood jam
deposit transversal to the flow direction. The volume of the wood jam was approx. 36 m3
but most of the air pockets in the jam were filled with fine sediment or coarse woody debris
(inferred from photos). In Reach 3, 400 m of a rural path was destroyed.
In Reaches 4 and 5 (Figure 2A) evidence of the water level can be clearly seen (high
water mark (HWM) on the small white building), with toppled and other damaged trees
(scars as palaeostage indicators (PSI); Ballesteros et al., 2011a and 2011b). The most
important action in this reach was the destruction of a small bridge across the river from
the small building to the other side. Only the bridge abutments are still standing, and a
gravel bar has developed upstream on the right bank. Some wood pieces, average length 6
m and average diameter 0.4 m, were deposited parallel to the flow direction and with the
root system upstream.
Finally, Reach 5 (Figure 2B), with the largest obstacle in the stream, is the most
critical reach for flood hazard. Here important deposits of wood and boulders were
observed, with some imbricate boulders lying on top of logs on the right bank. Some coarse

woody debris was also found on top of the larger pieces. Some of the logs are parallel to the
flow direction but others are transversal. The logs are of average length 7 m and average
diameter 0.4 m (inferred from photos). The volume on the right side of the bridge was
estimated at 85 m3, and most of this non-wood volume was filled with sediment. The
volume on the left side was 60 m3 (volumes inferred from photos). The evidence from
observations, images and other indicators (e.g. fine sand and coarse wood deposits found
on the bridge deck), show that the bridge was flooded due to the clogged wood.
Figure 2: Images taken the day after the 1997 event. Photos correspond to Reach 5 in Fig.1.

The reach studied is therefore in Reach 5 (length 250 m, altitude 805-755 m a.s.l.).
The stream bed morphology is a constrained reach without wide floodplains, typical of a
bedrock river. This reach was not severely modified, guaranteeing that changes in channel
geometry were minimal after this flood event.
The main characteristics are summarized in Table 1.
Table 1: Main physical characteristics of the Arroyo Cabrera catchment and reach studied
*The value refers to the flow gauge installed since 2004.
3. Methodology
As described above, there was no data available for this event from stream gauges,
radar rainfall estimates or sub-daily rain gauges and the event was characterized by a
backwater effect due to large wood transport. This resulted in some difficulties and
uncertainties in the event reconstruction. To reduce these uncertainties different
approaches were used to estimate the main flood parameters, although the method was
focused on analyzing the influence of wood on the hazard pattern.
A three-stage methodology was used: (1) Estimation of the approximate magnitude

of the event discharge using palaeoflood hydrology approaches. (2) Hydraulic analysis to

estimate the peak discharge and evaluate different scenarios to quantify the influence of the
large woody debris on the flood magnitude, due to bridge clogging processes. (3)
Reconstruction of the hydrological response of the catchment combined with the
stochastic simulation of the precipitation required for the estimated peak discharge.
3.1 Indirect peak discharge estimation
The first step was to identify the HWM and PSI and survey them to estimate the
water level in different reaches (between main Reaches 5 and 6 marked in Fig.1). These
included the HWM visible on the small building located on the streamside (Fig. 2A) and
on the bridge deck (Fig. 2B). However, the reach studied was affected by backwater effects
due to bridge clogging. Therefore, using only HWM or PSI may obtain overestimated
discharges, and other methods are required to estimate discharge when this occurs.
First, the peak discharge was assessed using the slope-conveyance method (Gaume
and Borga, 2008; Marchi et al., 2009) in the section furthest upstream of the bridge, less
influenced by obstruction.
Secondly, a palaeohydrological approach (Costa, 1983) was used to estimate the

approximate flow velocity and discharge (using the cross-sectional area) due to the large
accumulation of boulders transported during the event (Fig. 2B).
Indirect peak discharge estimates of this type are usually potentially affected by
different sources of uncertainty, which may be induced by errors in HWM assessment and
in the choice of roughness coefficients, in the use of the post-flood geometry and its survey,
in the assumptions concerning the energy line slope and, in this particular case, by the
backwater effect. Taking these uncertainties into account, a discharge range was established
and compared with other approaches (rainfall-runoff and hydraulic modelling).

3.2. Hydraulic and wood clogging simulation
An iterative hydraulic simulation was carried out in the studied reach using the step-
backwater method (HEC-RAS 4.1; USACE, 2010b) in steady conditions.
The reach geometry was produced using a combination of differential GPS and Total
Station (cross section 10 m maximum spacing). The bridge structure was mapped more
precisely (measuring the road on the deck, the arch and the entire structure). Topographic
data surveyed (accuracy(z) =10 cm) with the available DEM (pixel size 5 m, accuracy(z) =
25 cm) were used to obtain a more detailed DEM of the study reach with a spatial
resolution of pixel size 0.65 m (accuracy(z) = 10 cm in the riverbed, 25 cm in the rest).
This new DEM was used for further analysis with HEC-GeoRAS 4.3 (USACE, 2011) to
compute the water surface elevation maps.
The Manning roughness coefficient was established from field observations and
aerial orthophotos from 2000 - 2010, taking into account the evolution of the vegetation
within the stream to assess the correct values for the vegetation stand in 1997. This
roughness coefficient was established on both banks and riverbed for each cross section
according to the criteria used by Ballesteros et al. (2011a) in the same area.
Several discharges (ranging from 10 to 200 m3 s-1) were then input into the model
varying the hydraulic radius in the bridge section. This was carried out reducing the cross
sectional area by 10% each time in an iterative procedure using the block obstruction tool.
This obtained the ratio between the percentage of occlusion and the water level for a given
discharge, called here clogging curves. HWM and PSI were then used again to assess a
range of peak discharges, now taking into account the bridge occlusion in the simulation.
The next step was to analyze the flash flood frequency for the estimated discharge.
To attempt to assign a return period value to the 1997 peak flow, data obtained from an
available regional study of maximum discharges (CEDEX, 2011) was examined. In this
study, frequency analyses of catchments smaller than 50 km2 are carried out using the
rational method.
However, the authors’ own short recorded data series allowed to be computed with
the estimated discharge for the 1997 event, adjusted using different frequency distributions
(GEV, Gumbel and LogPearson III)

3.3. Hydrometeorological analysis
Past flood events may be reconstructed using a hydrometeorological approach, but

this is only possible when enough data is available. This was not the case for the 1997 flash
flood. There was no radar rainfall data available for the date in the region and only 10 daily
rainfall gauges were recording data on December 1997 in Sierra de Gredos (recorded data
for the event are shown in Fig 4). These were sited within a radius of 80 km, with most of
them installed at low altitudes.
Where the precipitation data network does not have rainfall gauges located at high
elevations, the main risk is underestimating precipitation values at higher points (Vélez et
al., 2007). Therefore, simulations are needed to model stochastic behaviour of the climatic
system. It is also advisable to use secondary information from an easy-to-measure variable,
with complete coverage of the study area and correlated with rainfall, such as altitude
obtained through a DEM. The advantage has been shown of using the DEM together with
rain gauge data to estimate daily rainfall (Pardo-Igúzquiza, 1998; Goovaerts, 2000).
Stochastic simulation of these daily data from the 10 stations provided a description
and a measure of uncertainty of the spatial variability of this phenomenon. This was done
by generating multiple realizations (500) of the stochastic process modelling the spatial
distribution under study. All the simulation tools implemented belong to the sequential
simulation category using the Stanford Geostatistical Modeling Software (SGeMS, Remy
et al., 2009), and the COSGSIM algorithm which allows a co-kriging solving system to be
chosen.
This algorithm simulates a Gaussian variable accounting for secondary information

assuming that the variable is Gaussian (using a normal score transform to convert the
variable values into a set of values that follow a normal standard distribution).
To limit the simulation results some data available for the storm was used. According
to eye witnesses and news reports (extracted from Díez-Herrero, 2003), on that day it
started to rain in the Sierra de Gredos around 18.00 (local time), the most intense rainfall
was at 23.30, and by around 06.00 the frontal rain was over the Mediterranean sea.
Therefore, a storm duration of around 12 h can be assumed with an approximately
symmetrical hyetograph.
In addition, previous work in the study area (Ruiz-Villanueva et al., 2011) established
an intensity-duration precipitation threshold for triggering the 1997 shallow landslide.
According to this study the critical rainfall amounts ranged from 215-324 mm depending
on the storm duration (6-24h). These amounts are the minimum values needed to trigger

the landslide. The total duration of the storm was about 12 hours (~264 mm based on this
threshold), but the range was extended here to 6-24 h (215-324 mm) to establish
minimum and maximum boundaries. The stochastic simulations that met this imposed
condition (minimum precipitation 215 mm and maximum precipitation 325 mm) and
were representative of the known orographic pattern of rainfall usual in this area, were
assumed to be the most reliable and were selected for further evaluation.
The intensive monitoring of this small basin since 2004, with 6 rain gauges and 1
flow gauge, together with an in-depth knowledge of the landscape and geomorphic
structure of the area, allowed the calibration and validation of the hydrological simulation.
To do this, a calibrated rainfall–runoff model was developed using HEC-HMS 3.5

(USACE, 2010a). The basin model was designed using HEC-GeoHMS 4.2 (USACE,
2009). The basin was delineated as far as the bridge cross section where the stream gauge is
located. The basin model consists of 9 sub-basins. This disaggregation was based on the
spatial distribution including the physiographic factors determining a homogenous
hydrologic response (i.e., lithology, cover type and hydrologic condition, slope, etc.).
The excess precipitation was transformed into runoff using the SCS dimensionless
unit hydrograph method. Channel routing was simulated implementing the Muskinghum-
Cunge method. For the baseflow, the recession method was implemented.
Calibration and validation of the hydrological model was limited by the short time
series, with records for only 7 years. It was performed for 9 selected recorded events
exceeding a threshold of 12 m3 s-1 (water level 1 meter) in the bridge section with a stream
gauge installed since 2004. (These events were the highest recorded in the basin until
2010). An automatic calibration routine was used for this where the sum squared residuals
and univariate method were used as objective function and search algorithm, respectively.
Once the model had been calibrated, parameters were kept constant, with the
exception of those describing the antecedent soil moisture conditions. For the 1997 event
the antecedent conditions were wet, based on the accumulated precipitation over the 5
previous days (see Ruiz-Villanueva et al., 2011 for details). Several scenarios were simulated
and the basin response was analysed to different design hyetographs resulting from the
disaggregation of the reliable stochastic realizations. These 15-minute time interval
hyetographs were obtained by disaggregating daily data using the available intensity-
duration curves for Spain (Salas and Fernández, 2007). Three hyetotypes and three storm
durations (6, 12 and 24 h) were used. These hyetotypes (Montescarchio et al., 2009) were:
(A) triangular increasing rate hyetograph; (B) triangular decreasing hyetograph; (C)
isosceles triangular hyetograph.

A summary of the methods above from stochastic simulations to rainfall-runoff

modelling is shown in Table 2.
Table 2: Summary of methods used in the hydrometeorological reconstruction
This procedure allowed us to check the consistency of the discharge estimation by

indirect estimates, and helped to confirm that the peak discharge is reliable based on the
available rainfall data and simulations.
4. RESULTS
4.1. Indirect estimation results
According to the field work, including surveying of high water marks (HWM), water
surface slope and cross-sectional geometry at multiple sites along the stream reach, the
water depth in the bridge section was 7.1 meters. The same procedure was carried out
using the HWM observed on the small building and PSI scars on two trees. The water level
upstream of this section was~3 m (HWMS6= 7.1 m; HWMS5= 2.9 m; PSI1= 2.8 m; PSI2=
3.2 m).
To compute the slope-conveyance method, Manning coefficient values were

assigned, ranging from 0.03 m1/2 s-1 to 0.06 m1/2 s-1 on low or non-vegetated banks; from

0.08 m1/2 s-1 to 0.15 m1/2 s-1 on vegetated banks; and from 0.08 m1/2 s-1 to 0.1 m1/2 s-1 in the
main channel (higher values where large boulders were present).
The results obtained from the slope-conveyance method provided values ranging
from 126 - 183 m3 s-1 (central value 155 m3 s-1; 126 m3 s-1 in the section furthest from the
bridge, and therefore less affected by the backwater). However, because of the clogging
process, these values are likely to be overestimated. Flow velocity ranges from 4.68 to 1.84
m s-1 depending on the section, but the mean in the entire reach is 3.61 m s-1. The average
reach Froude number is 0.7 (ranging from 0.34 to 0.83).
The average diameter of the larger particles ranged from 400 to 600 mm. According
to our calculations the flow velocity required to transport this type of material ranges from
3 to 4 m s-1 (central value 3.5 m s-1); using the cross sectional area (section 6, 35 m2) the
discharge range is estimated in the bridge section at 105-140 m3 s-1 (central value 123 m3 s-
1
). The average Froude number according to this velocity is 0.6.
The estimated discharge in the less affected section using the slope-conveyance
method (126 m3 s-1) is similar to the central value obtained by the competence method
(123 m3 s-1), therefore the range 105-140 m3 s-1 is used here as an indirect discharge
estimation.

CAPÍTULO /CHAPTER
C 4
4.2. Hydraulic results and hazard pattern

p evaluationn
T
The results ofo the iteraative proceddure describbed in section 3.2 aree expressed in the
cloggingg curves shoown in Fig. 3.
Figure 33: (A) Cloggging curvess: water deppth in the bridge

b sectioon represent
nted on the Y-axis,
Y
and thee reduced arrea in the hydraulic
hy raddius in perce
centage on the
th X-axis. ((B) Three tyypes of
behav
aviour can be
b differentiiated in thee curves: LTT, CT and UTU (explainned in the teext).
A 192 TESIS DOCTO
Although several combinations of discharges and obstruction percentages satisfied

the water level, it can be seen that for a range of obstructions between 30 to 60% (central
value of 45 ±15%) a discharge range between 95 and 160 m3 s-1 (127± 33 m3 s-1) is required
to fit the water level (based on HWM and PSI). The previous estimated discharge is within
this range. The proposed discharge (range 105-140 m3 s-1) requires an obstruction from 40
to 56 % (48 ± 8 %). Lower discharge values would need more than 60 % obstruction, and
this is unlikely to occur (Mazzorana et al., 2011b). On the other hand, with higher
discharge the water level is reached almost without obstruction.
Figure 3 shows three different regions, corresponding to three different types of

hydraulic behaviour that can be observed in the clogging curves. The first region is the
lower threshold (LT), where the slight water level increase is apparently linear when the
clogging percentage increases (sub-parallel curves). The second region, or critical threshold
(CT), shows the most significant behaviour, where small increments in clogging
percentage make the water level rise rapidly, until the upper threshold (UT) or third
region is reached, where the maximum water level remains almost constant.
When a peak discharge of 123 m3 s-1 was simulated with an obstruction of 48% of the
bridge section, the result satisfies the water level estimates based on field indicators (HWM
and PSI). Flow velocity computed by the hydraulic model ranged up to 4 m s-1 (mean 2.85
m s-1), confirming the estimates provided earlier.
The simulation was also run without any bridge obstruction for the same discharge
to analyze the influence of the obstruction (Fig.4).
This simulation without bridge obstruction was calibrated using the rating curve
obtained for the bridge cross-section by hydraulic modelling and with the recorded data
and field measurements (Fig.5).

CAPÍTULO /CHAPTER
C 4
ts of the hyddraulic simuulation (1233 m3 s-1 peakk discharge)

Figurre 4: Results e). Longituddinal
sectioons of the bridge
br reach
h with obstruuction in thhe bridge (AA) and withohout obstrucction
(B). (C
C) Bridge skketch.
Figuure 5: Ratinng curve forr the bridgee section witth stream gaauge installe
led since 200
004.
A 194 TESIS DOCTO
Figure 6: Water depth for the estimated discharge of the 1997 flash flood, (A) without any
obstruction at the bridge, (B) taking into account the LWD and obstruction at the bridge,
(C) water surface with LWD (in red) and without LWD (blue). Gas deposits and camping
site are shown on the maps.
Fig. 6 shows clearly that the water surface elevations are different in the absence of
wood. This suggests that specific areas will flood more frequently than expected if large
wood is transported.
Frequency curves are plotted in Fig. 7. The return period of the 1997 estimated
discharge applying the CEDEX method is 80-200 years (continuous black line ; depending
on the range 123 ± 18 m3 s-1). However, if the authors’ own short recorded data series is
computed together with the estimated discharge for the 1997 event, and adjusted using
different frequency distributions (GEV, Gumbel and LogPearson III; Fig. 10, dotted grey
lines) different results are obtained. For the 1997 event the recurrence time would range
from 25-45 years (depending on the range 123 ± 18 m3 s-1).
For higher discharges the uncertainty increases due to the short data series. But the
most important observation is that these curves are all above the other curve shown, so that
the frequency using the rational method may be underestimated.

CAPÍTULO /CHAPTER
C 4
Figure 7: Flood fre

requency annalysis. Cont
ntinuous blaack line show ws frequenccy distributtion of
CED
EDEX data. Dotted
D grey
ey lines are tthe differen nt adjustmen
nts using oth
ther frequenncy
distrributions; coontinuous grey
g line is tthe mean off these and the dashedd area showss the
confidence
c iintervals (55 and 95%).
n conclusion
In n, the 1997 7 estimatedd discharge would
w havee a return pperiod of ~335±10
years (bbased on thhe mean of our approxximations),, however the t wood cllogging maakes its
consequuences equiivalent in water
w level too a higher magnitude
m event
e (~50 year event). This
hypotheesis enabless us to intro oduce the nnew concep pt of the eq
quivalent ret
eturn periodd, used
here as tthe recurren
nce intervall for an evennt of a givenn magnitudde that in thhe presence of any
obstrucction (in th his case wood)
w is eqquivalent inn water levvel to an event of greater
g
magnituude. An iterative process was carrried out agaain to analyyse this effeect. Simulattion of
several discharges and differrent obstruuctions alloowed the curves c showwing the defined
d
equivaleent return period
p to be
b computedd (the curvve estimated d with the aauthors’ reccorded
data and the one obtained
o frrom CEDE EX data) an nd the perceentage of brridge obstrruction
(Fig. 8)..
A 196 TESIS DOCTO
Figgure 8: Equi
uivalent retuurn period. C
Curve repreesenting the effect of w
wood cloggiing in
criticaal sections in
i flood hazzard analysi s. The brokken red line is the estim
mated return n period
for thhe 1997 eveent based on he continuo
n the recordded short data series; th uous blue lin
ne is the
returnn period proovided by CEDEX
C . Th
The dotted black
bl line is the
t mean an and the greyy shading
shows tthe uncertaainty area.
ws that the 35-year retturn period

Fig. 8 show d event withhout any obbstruction could
c be
equivaalent in waater surfacee elevation to the 50--year eventt if the crooss-sectionaal area is
reduceed by 50% %. The Figgure shows the same for other discharges and obstrructions.
Thereefore, dischaarge withou nitude of itss effects up to eight
ut obstructiion increasees the magn
times depending on increasiing obstructtion.
VIRGINIA
CAPÍTULO /CHAPTER
C 4
4.3. Rainfaall field configura

c ation and rainfall-rrunoff reesults
T
The Gaussian n variogram
m model choosen for thee three variograms (raiinfall, topoggraphy
and croossing varioogram) was exponentiaal as is usu
ual in rainfaall simulatiions (Grimes and
Pardo-IIgúzquiza, 2010)
2 s equal to 1. The varriogram ran
with no nugget effect and sill nge was
46,200 m (Fig. 9).
Fi
Figure 9: Expperimental variogramss for DEM anda precipit
itation. Blacck line is the
he
exponeential modeel applied. Numbers
N ovver squares are
a data paiirs for precip
ipitation dat
ata (for
DEM varriogram moore than 10000 pairs werre used).
O
Of the 500 computed
c stochastic
s siimulations,, 70 fulfilled
d the condiitions impo
osed in
the stuudy, and 588 of these agreed wi th the reggional orogrraphic patttern. The spatial
represenntation of one
o of thesee reliable sim
mulations iss shown in Fig.10.
F
A 198 TESIS DOCTO
Figure 10: Example of stochastic realization which fulfilled the conditions and so is reliable
for use in hydrological simulation. Daily registered data is placed over the station (blue
squares).
The calibration results show a good fit between simulated and observed peak
discharges, with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency equal to 0.73 and a correlation coefficient of
0.79.
Therefore, 432 independent stochastic simulations were performed for all the
combination of hyetotypes and rainfall volume, to obtain the spatially distributed daily
rainfall including the orographic effect.
As a result of these simulations, and as expected, several different basin responses

were observed: (i) for the three storm durations the lowest discharges were obtained with
hyetotype B (59-73 % bias) and the highest values obtained when type A was applied,
whereas types C and A were very similar (8-25 % bias); (ii) the 6 h storm resulted in the
highest discharges, with mean values ranging from 92 to 228 m3 s-1 depending on the
hyetotype. Mean values for the 12 h storm ranged from 33 to 121 m3 s-1 and for the 24 h

CAPÍTULO /CHAPTER
C 4
storm ffrom 12 to 43 m3 s-1 (dependingg on the hyetotype);

h (iii) the sccenarios thaat best
reproduuced the esttimated peaak dischargee for the 1997 event weere hyetotypypes C (averrage 90
3 -1 3 -1
± 48 m s ) and A (average 12 20 ± 39 m s ) for the 12 h stormm, and hyettotype B for the 6
h storm
m (average 91 9 ± 46 m3 s-1); basedd on the knoown approxximate totaal duration of the
storm (about 12 hours),
h the most
m reliablle are C and A for 12 h. The sim mulated maxximum
-11
rainfall intensities range up to
o 25 mm h .
T
The total prrecipitation
n in the cattchment froom the selected scenaarios was used
u to
extrapoolate from recent
r rainffall amountts (recorded
d within thee catchmennt) the amo
ount of
rainfall needed to produce a discharge of 104 - 150 m s (central valuue of 123 m3 s-1)
3 -1
downstream (Figure 11).
Figuree 11: Ratio between

b a given
g volumme of total precipitation
p n in the catc
tchment off given
g
duratio
ion (12 h) and
an the disch
charge rangee generated.d. Red dots are
a storm evvents from 2004-
2
20111 correlatedd with obseerved dischaarges. Blackk triangles an
nd grey squa
uares are dessign
storms and
a correspponding sim mulated disccharges.
Fiig. 11 also shows

s that the total prrecipitation
n in the catcchment givving the estiimated
dischargge ranges frrom 205 to o 260 mm ((233 ± 27 mm) for a 12 h storm m using triaangular
increasiing rate andd isosceles triangular rate hyetoggraphs. Ressults also hhelped to coonfirm
3 -1
that a ppeak disch harge greateer than 1500 m s is very unlik kely to occcur, and th hat the
estimateed dischargge range is co
onsistent w
with the estimated rainffall amountt.
A 200 TESIS DOCTO
5. Discussion
5.1. Palaeoflood discharge estimation
The discharge estimation was carried out first by means of empirical equations.
Assuming the backwater effect due to bridge obstruction, the slope-conveyance method
was applied and result obtained in the furthest section from the bridge was 126 m3 s-1.
Costa (1983) reviewed four theoretical and empirical methods for velocity
estimation for boulders transported by flash floods, finding differences in velocity between
the four methods ranging from 17 to 30%, and obtaining the equation V = 0.18 d0.487.
Costa (1983) demonstrated that the uncertainty of palaeodischarge estimates derived from
this approach has an average error of 28% (USACE, 2003). This method has been applied
by different researchers (Costa, 1983; Gregory, 1983; Williams, 1983; Baker et al., 1984;
Johnson and Warburton, 2002; Kehew et al., 2010; among others) to reconstruct past
floods.
The application of palaeocompetence equations to velocity reconstruction ideally

requires assumptions about flow conditions to be met (steady uniform flow, logarithmic
velocity profiles and fully submerged particles with low relative roughness values)
according to Costa (1983) and Maizels (1983). Although these assumptions can be
questioned for a mountain flash flood, and should be treated with caution, Gaume and
Borga (2008) demonstrated that in the case of steep channels, assuming a uniform flow
may provide fair velocity estimates if compared with one-dimensional hydraulic models.
Since the estimated discharge using the slope-conveyance method (126 m3 s-1) for the
section least affected (by the backwater effect) was similar to the central value obtained by
the competence method (123 m3 s-1), the range 105-140 m3 s-1 was used here as indirect
discharge estimation. This range was also corroborated by the iterative hydraulic process
(with the range between 95 and 160 m3 s-1; 127± 33 m3 s-1).
According to the International Association of Hydrological Sciences and other

researchers, the maximum observed floods per unit area could be related to the catchment
area (Herschy, 2002; IAHS, 2003; Gaume et al., 2009 and Marchi et al., 2010). For the
1997 event the unit discharge is 7.94 ± 1.16 m3 s-1 km-2; this value is lower than the
maximum obtained values applying the approach used by these authors, which for the
studied catchment are: 54 and 29 m3 s-1 km-2 respectively.

Although the objectives, the studied reach, data and methods used differ from those
applied in this study, our estimations were also compared with a previous study of the 1997
event (Ballesteros et al., 2011a). These authors investigated the use of scarred trees for the
peak discharge estimation in a different reach downstream of the bridge. They estimated
145 m3 s-1 as the minimum peak discharge for which all scars are submerged. This value
therefore represents a PSI reference level for estimating the hypothetical flow depth. Then,
by using several scenarios they established a peak discharge of 79 ± 14 m3 s-1 according to
the minimized deviation between tree scar height and simulated water elevation. As they
point out, several bridges upstream of the study site could reduce the peak flow in their
study reach. It should be pointed out that the bridge obstruction triggered a critical flow
downstream and therefore the flow conditions above and below this section were also
different. On the one hand, their estimates are affected by the bridge lamination, and on
the other hand, the flow may be affected by damming resulting in several pulses or peaks
(interferences in the flow) in the discharge. The HWM and PSI analysed are assumed to be
the maximum envelope of these peaks.
Therefore, considering these effects and the uncertainties of both methods, the order
of magnitude agrees with our results (according to the upper and lower limits of both
estimations the discharge would be of the same order of magnitude: 103 ± 38 m3 s-1).
Flow velocity was also estimated as approximately 3.5 m s-1. This velocity is,
according to Marchi et al. (2010), characteristic of flash floods for catchments of less than
350 km2 (Lumbroso and Gaume, 2012).
The Froude number was approximately 0.65, which is also consistent with several
studies which argue that supercritical flow cannot be sustained over reaches longer than 20
m (Jarret, 1984; Grant, 1997; Lumbroso and Gaume, 2012), particularly when bed
material is transported (Bathurst et al., 1979). Nevertheless, a supercritical flow could be
expected for the reach geometry based on channel slope. In the studied reach, the
subcritical flow is also imposed by the bridge obstruction and the flow condition changes
to supercritical downstream.

5.2. Hydrodynamic reconstruction and influence on hazard

patterns
The hydraulic simulation was run using the HEC-RAS model. This was used for two
different purposes; first, to reproduce the clogging process (computing the clogging
curves); and also to reconstruct the 1997 event validating the indirect estimates
(obstructions between 30 to 60% need discharges between 95 and 160 m3 s-1, central value
of 127± 33 m3 s-1, to fit the observed water level). This model has very often been used
successfully to reconstruct past floods (some examples are Agget and Wilson, 2009;
Balasch et al., 2010; Benito et al., 2003a and b; Gül et al., 2009; Horrit and Bates, 2002;
Jacoby et al., 2008; Koutroulis and Tsanis., 2010; Ortega and Garzón, 2009; Thorndycraft
et al., 2005).
Although roughness coefficients could not be calibrated along the main channel due
to lack of data, the uniform bedrock present in the study reach greatly helped the
assignment of Manning’s values. In addition, we applied the same criterion used by
Ballesteros et al. (2011a) and field observations and photographs. Nevertheless, the
Manning coefficient is considered to be of low sensitivity when calculating high magnitude
flood flow discharges (O'Connor and Webb, 1988; Enzel et al., 1994) showing that a 20 %
change in this parameter produced a change of less than 5 % in the corresponding
discharge. This is particularly the case here, since the energy losses due to roughness are
lower if we take into consideration that the main process is the obstruction and the
subsequent change in flow conditions and backwater effect.
In addition, in this study the bridge structure and the cross-sectional reduction were
simulated with HEC-RAS (using the block obstruction tool), and also the water level. The
choice of the block tool was based on the bridge geometry, with a single arch without piers.
As can be observed in the photos (Fig. 2), this bridge design determined the wood
accumulation. In this case, the logs were deposited on the bridge laterals, and no wood was
found on the bridge deck. The tool allows areas of the cross-section to be defined that will
be permanently blocked on both sides of the bridge. This method differs from that used by
Mazzorana et al. (2011a), since the bridge geometry is also different.
According to observations made by Mazzorana et al. (2011), Marchi et al. (2009) or

Mao and Comiti (2010) wood dynamics may influence flooding frequency, extent and
duration. This is exactly the case here. The blockage of the bridge during the flood due to
the woody material generated flow interferences. The most important outcome was the
increased water level upstream. This process had a considerable impact on increased risk as
shown in detail above. Clogging curves have been developed for the study site and the

concept of the equivalent return period has been established. These important
contributions have enabled improved risk analysis taking this process into account. Three
types of behaviour were observed in the clogging curves: the lower threshold where the
slight increase in water level is linear when the clogging percentage increases; the critical
and most important threshold, where small increments in clogging percentage make the
water level rise rapidly, until the upper threshold is reached, where the maximum water
level remains almost constant.
This behaviour can be explained by flow regime changes. First, in the LT region the
flow regime is supercritical, and the water level apparently increases linearly (sub- parallel
curves) with increasing obstruction ; then, the regime changes to subcritical, and the water
level increases abruptly (CT). Last, in the UT region (higher discharges and/or total
obstruction) the wetted perimeter increases very slowly , then the curve slope is less steep
than in the first region. These curves are only valid for this bridge, but the methodology to obtain
them is can be easily reproduced, and the three main sectors found in the envelopes will be similar for
other similar bridges, since these are related to the hydraulic conditions.
The equivalent return period is defined as the recurrence interval for an event of a
given magnitude that in the presence of obstructions corresponds to a more extreme event.
On the study site the peak discharge with no bridge obstruction increases in magnitude up
to eight times depending on the increase in obstruction.
Moreover, the hydrodynamic simulation of wood transport is needed to evaluate

reliable scenarios and recalculate the effects in terms of magnitude. Some work has been
carried out using a stochastic-deterministic approach (Mazzorana et al., 2011a, 2011b) and
work is underway on the two-dimensional hydrodynamic simulation of wood transport
(Ruiz-Villanueva et al., under review).
5.3. Hydrometeorological simulation
Radar rainfall estimates are of great importance in flash flood studies (Marchi et al.,
2009). However, radar data have not been used here because there was no weather radar
data available for the 1997 event and there were only 10 daily rain gauges irregularly
distributed in the study area in 1997. Therefore, secondary information was used with the
altitude obtained from a DEM as an easy-to-measure variable, with complete coverage of
the study area and correlated with rainfall. The advantages of using the DEM together

with rain gauge data in estimating daily rainfall have been shown (Pardo-Igúzquiza, 1998;
Goovaerts, 2000). The same is true when generating geostatistical simulations of daily
rainfall.
Stochastic simulations provide a description and measurement of the uncertainty of

the spatial variability of a phenomenon (Remy et al., 2009). This is done by generating
multiple realizations of the stochastic process modelling the spatial distribution under
study. The 500 simulations of data from these 10 stations provided 58 reliable realizations
that satisfied the imposed conditions for the study site and the studied event.
The HEC-HMS rainfall-runoff model has also been applied (Scharffenberg and
Fleming, 2005; Fleming and Neary, 2004; Maskey et al., 2004; Cunderlik and Simonovic,
2007) to estimate the possible rainfall field configuration and duration.
Here, moderate events (but the largest recorded, most of them in autumn-winter,
therefore with similar initial conditions to the 1997 event) have been used to calibrate the
rainfall-runoff model to simulate a more extreme event. This procedure could have
resulted in increased model uncertainty. The main limitation could be related to the initial
abstractions and therefore the peak discharge obtained could be underestimated, due to the
model calibration using medium-high frequency events. As a result, probably the losses
occurring in an extreme event such as the one studied here would be lower than those
simulated by us. The wet initial conditions (low initial abstractions) established for the
1997 event could help to reduce this uncertainty.
On the other hand, the inverse case, the identification of parameters in an extreme
flood for use in moderate events, has previously been used successfully (Ruiz-Villanueva et
al., accepted for publication). The work presented here shows that calibrating parameters
of moderate events for use in more extreme flood cases may be also useful when initial
conditions are properly accounted for.
Disaggregation applying different hyetotypes allowed different hydrological

responses to be observed, to find and validate the most reliable hyetograph, storm duration,
precipitation amount and maximum intensities required to produce the estimated
discharge.
The simulations showed that a 12 hour storm (the approx. total duration of the
storm), triangular increasing rate and isosceles triangular rate hyetographs, with simulated
maximum rainfall intensities ranging up to 25 mm h-1 and total precipitation over the
catchment ranging from 205 to 260 mm reproduce the catchment response during the
1997 event.

Although there is a degree of uncertainty in the rainfall input, the rainfall-runoff

model also helped to confirm that a peak discharge greater than 150 m3 s-1 is very unlikely
to occur, and that the estimated discharge range is consistent with the estimated rainfall.
This event may be considered as a prototype of the likely storms responsible for flash
flood peaks in Central Spain, and this assumption agrees with the seasonality found by
Marchi et al. (2010), that in Mediterranean regions (Spain, France and Italy) the highest
occurrence of flash floods is in autumn, whereas events in inland Continental regions
(Austria, Rumania and Slovakia) commonly occur in summer; this, as well as that events in
the Mediterranean region are usually larger and more intense than in Continental regions,
reveal different climatic forcing.
6. Conclusions
This study presents the reconstruction of the 1997 flash flood with large wood
transport occurring in Sierra de Gredos (Central Spain). There was no available recorded
data from stream gauges, radar rainfall estimates or sub-daily rain gauges for this event. The
event was characterized by a backwater effect due to large wood transport, and this leads to
difficulties and uncertainties in the indirect estimations. Therefore, indirect methods
together with hydraulic simulation and rainfall-runoff modelling have been applied to
obtain the main flash flood parameters.
This procedure also allowed the clogging curves to be obtained for this bridge. The
obstruction due to the wood load influenced hazard patterns, resulting in estimated water
discharge levels different from those expected in the absence of wood (with 2 m difference
in this case). This allowed the new concept of the equivalent return period to be defined as
the recurrence interval of an event where an obstruction is present, the consequences of
which are equivalent in water depth and therefore in flood extent to a more extreme event.
The reconstruction of these past events will provide a better understanding of the
catchment response and they will also improve risk analysis. The order of magnitude
estimation of precipitation and discharge, and the post-event evaluation showed that the
magnitude of this event was seriously influenced by the large quantities of wood
transported in the flow and how this affected critical sections like bridges. These
observations highlight the need to improve the study of woody debris transport during
floods. Finally, the concepts of the clogging curves and the equivalent return period may

help to understand the influence of this (and other processes) in flood hazard and risk
analysis.
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to express their gratitude to the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation,
for financial support. This work was founded by the MAS Dendro-Avenidas project (CGL2010-19274)
and the Geological Survey of Spain (IGME). We are grateful to the Tagus Water Authority, Environment
Department of Castilla y León in Ávila, Caja Ávila, Asocio de Ávila and Navaluenga Council for their
collaboration. Our special thanks the forester José Luis Galán for his assistance in the field. We would also
like to mention Juan Ballesteros, Ignacio Gutierrez, Tasio Fernández, Leticia Salas, Carolina Guardiola and
Ángel Prieto for contributing suggestions and interesting discussions which significantly improved this
paper. Thanks to the contribution of 2 anonymous reviewers the quality of the early version of this
manuscript was improved.

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Smith JA, Baeck ML, Ntelekos AA, Villarini G, Steiner M. 2011. Extreme rainfall and flooding from
orographic thunderstorms in the central Appalachians, Water Resour. Res. 47, W04514,
doi:10.1029/2010WR010190.
Thorndycraft VR, Benito G, Rico M, Sopeña A, Sánchez Y, Casas A. 2005. A long-term flood discharge
record derived from slackwater flood deposits of the Llobregat River, NE Spain. J. Hydrol. 313:16–
31.
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE). 2003. Application of Paleohydrology to Corps Flood Frequency
Analysis. US Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center, Davis, CA.
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE). 2009. HEC-HMS 3.5 User Manual, US Army Corps of
Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center, Davis, CA.
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE). 2010a. HEC-GeoHMS 4.2 User Manual, US Army Corps of
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE). 2010b. HEC-RAS River Analysis System: Hydraulic Reference
Manual, US Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center, Davis, CA.
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE). 2011. HEC-GeoRAS Users Manual, US Army Corps of
Vélez JJ, López F, Puricelli M, Francés F. 2007. Parameter extrapolation to ungauged basins with a
hydrological distributed model in a regional framework. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. 4: 909–
956.
Weingartner R, Barben M, Spreafico M. 2003. Floods in mountain areas—an overview based on examples
from Switzerland. Journal of Hydrology 282: 10-24. DOI:10.1016/S0022-1694(03)00249-X.
Williams, G.P. 1983. Paleohydrological methods and some examples from Swedish fluvial environments,
pt. I-Cobble and boulder deposits: eografiska Annaler, ser. A. Physical Geography 65: 227-2243.

4.4. WOOD RECRUITMENT DUE TO

LANDSLIDES, BANK EROSION AND
FLOODS
2.1. Terrain analysis: potential wood source
areas
2.1.1. Landslide susceptibility and stream connectivity
2.1.2. Flood severity and frequency
2.1.3. Bank erosion susceptibility

2.2. Vegetation analysis and available wood
volumes
2.2.1. Data source of vegetation resistance
2.2.2. Volume of potential recruitable wood

(PRW)
2.3. Scenario definition
2.4. Field observations
(4.4.) 3. Test site


(4.4). 4. Results
4.1. Wood contributing areas due to
landslides, bank erosion and fluvial
transport during floods.
4.2. Potentially recruitable wood volume:
theoretical predictions
5.1. Large wood recruitment: sources and
volumes
5.2. Potential errors and limitations
5.3. Potential applications
REFERENCE:
Ruiz-Villanueva, V., Díez-Herrero, A., Ballesteros, J.A., Bodoque, J.M. (in press). Large
Woody Debris potentially recruitable due to landslides, bank erosion and floods in
mountain basins: a quantitative estimation approach. River Research and
Applications . DOI: 10.1002/rra.2614.

ABSTRACT
An in-depth knowledge of the fluvial corridor and surrounding slopes and forest
vegetation is needed for a better understanding of wood recruitment or inputs to rivers.
The information available in Central Spain on hydrogeomorphic processes and forest
distribution enabled the evaluation of potential wood recruitment from three sources:
landslides, bank erosion and fluvial transport during floods on a regional scale. The
method presented here is based on a geographical information system (GIS) and on multi-
criteria and multi-objective assessment using fuzzy logic principles. First, the areas
potentially affected by landslides, bank erosion and floods were delineated, and a
vegetation analysis was carried out to obtain the vegetation resistance and forest density.
Several scenarios were proposed based on the process frequency and severity. Using this
method the volume of potentially available wood can be estimated for each scenario.
14 river basins in populated areas were selected for further analyses and field survey.
Observations of in-stream storage of woody debris and tree disturbances were used to
interpret the woody debris dynamics throughout the watershed and validate the obtained
results.
This method offers a suitable approach to define a watershed’s capacity to recruit

wood material to streams by delineating the source areas and estimating the order of
magnitude of the wood volume in each case. The results may be useful to characterize the
dynamics of woody debris from the perspective of the potential hazard of its transport
during floods, and they can also be used for forest and river management and restoration.
Keywords: large woody debris, wood recruitment, hydrogeomorphic processes, tree

disturbance.


1. Introduction
Mountainous regions are characterised by complex dynamics due to the action of

multiple hydrogeomorphic processes, such as mass movements on hillslopes, flows, and
floods. These processes involve transformations influenced by the amount of water and the
other materials it transports, such as sediment and large woody debris (LWD).
In forested mountain catchments the supply of LWD, i.e. wood pieces of 1 m or

more in length or 0.1 m or more in diameter, may be caused by a variety of mechanisms
including mass wasting, channel migration and bank undercutting (May and Gresswell,
2003; Swanson, 2003; Fig.1), stochastic mechanisms such as windthrow and fire (Benda
and Sias, 2003; Rosso et al., 2007) or simple tree mortality (Benda et al., 2003).
Vegetation affected but not killed by hydrogeomorphic processes will react to these
disturbances (Stoffel and Wilford, 2011), and may also provide information on the river
dynamics (i.e. dendrogeomorphology) and LWD.
Trees can be transported or recruited to streams through hillslope failure, landslides

and other slope processes which may convey (by sliding or rolling) standing and lying
woody material within the affected area towards the river. Some toppled trees further from
the channel may not reach the stream directly, but can destabilize other trees closer to
them.
Within the stream bed and floodplain, erosion processes occur along the banks
altering the static equilibrium of trees, so these may topple or slide into the channel. This
process is related to the stream flow power and its geomorphological configuration.
Woody material is also available and mobile within the channel bed and on forested bars
and may be transported and deposited by fluvial mechanisms.
The presence of wood in streams has been shown to be linked to positive ecological
effects, in contrast to past perceptions that streams need to be freed from obstructions (see
references in Kasprak et al., 2011). A better understanding of LWD entrainment, or the
process by which woody material is transported to the river, is therefore needed when
considering the effects of LWD in rivers from an ecological perspective, for analysing
geomorphological processes and for flood hazard assessment. Therefore, the rate of LWD
delivered to streams has been the subject of several studies in recent years. Martin and
Benda (2001) constructed a LWD budget using a proposed quantitative framework to
evaluate spatial and temporal controls on LWD recruitment rate transport. Some years
later, Benda and Sias (2003) evaluated the mass balance of in-stream organic debris making
quantitative estimates of wood flux. May and Gresswell (2003) identified wood

recruitment and redistribution mechanisms during a retrospective investigation. Bragg

(2004) analysed reach-scale tree recruitment based on bank erosion and tree fall patterns.
Mazzorana et al. (2009) proposed a procedure based on empirical indicators to determine
the relative propensity of mountain streams to recruit woody material. At a watershed-
scale, Kasprak et al. (2011) developed a method using LIDAR data to evaluate potential
wood recruitment. Based also on raster analyses, Mazzorana et al. (2011) estimated
absolute volumes of recruited material. Nevertheless, a quantitative estimation of LWD
volume (in terms of number of trees) and the definition of contributing areas based on
different processes and levels of severity had not been achieved so far.
Therefore, the aims of this paper are: (i) to define areas that may contribute woody
material to streams, observing the importance of different recruitment processes and
creating reliable scenarios based on the process severity; (ii) to provide estimates of the
order of magnitude of recruitable wood volumes for each scenario; and (iii) to study the
LWD dynamics in those catchments identified as potentially risk-prone.
Because the focus here was on the role of hydrogeomorphic processes in supplying
woody material to the channel, a spatially inclusive approach is adopted regarding the
volume of potentially recruitable wood from landslides, bank erosion and fluvial transport
during floods (Fig.1). Other factors such as wind, snow, fires or decay which may also
deliver woody material are outside the scope of this study.
Figure 1: The three main wood recruitment processes on a catchment scale studied in this
analysis: (Ls) landslides; (Ft) fluvial transport during floods; (Be) stream bank erosion.

Since thesee geomorph hological proocesses ofteen occur du

uring majorr floods (Naakamura
et al., 2000) whhen the number of w wood piecess likely to be transpoorted increaases, the
recruiitment and dynamics of woody m material haave been stuudied from m the perspeective of
potenntial responssibility in in
ncreasing thhe impact ofo flood hazzards (see eexamples in
n Comiti
et al., 2008; Maoo and Com miti 2010; RRickenman nn and Koschni, 20100; Mazzoran na et al.,
2010; Ruiz-Villan nueva et al., 2012).
2. M
Method
dology
The proposed method d is dividedd into three main steps (Fig. 2): (i)) terrain an
nalysis to
establish wood sources
s suchh as areas affected byy landslides, floods annd bank ero osion, in
additiion to takin
ng into accoount the diffferent scennarios (based on the prrocess severrity); (ii)
vegetaation analyysis to obtaain the treee resistancee and foresst density (iii) wood volume
estimaates for each
h scenario. Finally
F the results are evaluated
e with
w a field ssurvey
Figgure 2: Gene
neral methoddology flow
wchart
VIRGINIA
The whole analysis is based on a GIS combining morphometric information derived

from sources such as digital elevation models (DEM; 25 m pixel size), topographic maps
(BCN25, 2011; 1:25000 scale), existing available hazard maps (Diez-Herrero and
Ballesteros, 2009; province of Ávila scale), geological and geomorphological spatial
information (GEODE, 2011; 1:50000 scale), forestry maps and a detailed forest inventory
data base (MFE, 2011; 1:25000 scale).
2.1. Terrain analysis: potential wood source areas
2.1.1. Landslide susceptibility and stream connectivity
The importance of wood recruitment due to mass wasting depends on the type and
size or area of the landslide, the age or size of trees recruited and the connectivity to the
channel (source areas intersecting a channel segment of a given length; Benda and Sias,
2003). Existing and published natural hazard maps for the province of Ávila (Díez-
Herrero and Ballesteros, 2009; Ballesteros et al., 2012) were used to establish potential
landslide areas, as they include landslide susceptibility information. A buffer area of
influence was also established around these areas, to include toppled trees that may be
recruited indirectly by the action of landslides.
A number of studies have shown the importance of tree proximity to the channel on
overall recruitment (McDade et al., 1990; Robison and Beschta, 1990; Van Sickle and
Gregory, 1990; Bragg and Kershner, 2004). Therefore, the connectivity between those
areas and the stream was analysed as this is decisive in the final wood entrainment. Van
Sickle and Gregory (1990) quantified the probability of a tree entering the stream as a
function of the distance from the nearest channel boundary and the tree height (Ht);
Mazzorana et al. (2009) also took the slope gradient into account. Connectivity was
established as a function of both the distance to the channel and the slope. If a tree is
located in a landslide-prone area or in the toppling influence area then it will reach the
channel if it is at a close enough distance (D; D= k·Ht; k is the toppling coefficient and the
value assigned here was 2 (tree height x 2), or if it is further away but on a steep slope
(>40%).

As a first sttep, the landslide susceeptibility is categorised

d, and thenn the connecctivity is
analyssed. Then, thet recruitm ment probaability is asssigned for each possiblle combinattion (i.e.
high ssusceptibilitty and high h connectivvity area willl have a recruitment pprobabilityy > 50%,
and soo on; see Figg. 3).
Figurre 3: Probabbility (in peercentage) th

that wood will
w be recru
uited from th
the hillslopees based
on conneectivity to the
t channel.l.
2.1.2. Flood severity aand frequeency
Trees locatted on the riverbed, foorested barrs or flood plains

p will be easily enntrained
nd severity assessment is difficult on a regionnal scale beecause of
duringg floods. Fllood risk an
the coonsiderable amount of accurate ddata requirred for hydrologic andd hydraulic studies.
Howeever, this information
i n is availabble for thee province of Ávila ((Díez-Herrrero and
os et al., 20112).
Ballesteros, 20099; Ballestero
The hypothhesis used was

w that in flood-pron ne areas the fluvial trannsport of wood
w will
hat the recrruitment duue to flood events will be an impoortant entrainment
be inttense and th
processs.
VIRGINIA
Detailed geological and geomorphological information was used to delineate those

areas (Digital Geological map of Spain (GEODE), topographic and geomorphological
maps). From these maps, units related to fluvial processes of relatively recent genesis
(Quaternary, preferably Holocene deposits) were selected. Where possible, areas with
current activity and with different flooding frequency were chosen as potential flood-prone
areas using the methodology proposed by the National Flood Zone Mapping System
(SNCZI) in the preliminary flood risk assessment (MAGRAMA, 2012) following the EU
Floods Directive (European Commission Directive 2007/60/EC).
2.1.3. Bank erosion susceptibility
Bank erosion often occurs during floods, and it recruits trees at rates depending on
the erodibility of banks, flood frequency and stand density (Benda and Sias, 2003).
Following Nakamura and Swanson (1994) and Kasprak et al. (2011) the hypothesis
put forward here was that the measurement of channel sinuosity quantifies how prone the
stream is to lateral migration. Transport capacity is also used here as an indicator of the
potential stream capacity for bank erosion.
Empirical equations have been proposed for steep mountain streams to estimate
orders of magnitude for sediment concentration (Smart and Jaeggi (1983); Mizuyama and
Shimohigashi (1985); Bathurst et al. (1987); Meunier (1989); Rickenmann (1990 and
1991)). This concentration is the ratio between solid and liquid discharges and it can be
used as an indicator of stream transport capacity. In general these are regression equations
based on field and laboratory data, and related to stream gradient.
According to our hypothesis, stream reaches with a high sinuosity (high lateral
migration of the channel) and high transport capacity (high sediment concentration) will
be prone to bank erosion. Therefore, the reasoning is as follows: trees located on the
riverbed or flood plains (defined in the previous subsection) will be easily entrained during
floods, and bank erosion will significantly increase the entrainment probability (Fig. 4).

Figur
ure 4: Probab
ability in perrcentage off w
wood recruuited withinn the fluviall corridor based
ba on
floood frequencycy, flood sevverity and sttream bankk erosion cappacity.
2.2. Vegetation analysis

a aand availaable woo
od volum es
The vegetaation analyssis is dividedd into two steps: (i) vegetation re

resistance is defined
and esstablished for
fo the entirre area; (ii) tthe potential recruitab
ble wood voolume is calcculated.
VIRGINIA
2.2.1. Data source of vegetation resistance
Vegetation resistance-resilience has been defined previously (see Mazzorana et al.,

2011), but this term is used here to define the extent to which vegetation can be recruited.
This depends on both stand structure and species-specific characteristics.
The Forest Map of Spain and National Forest Inventory produced by the Ministry of
the Environment, Spain (MFE, 2011) include fifteen different descriptor fields for the
ecology and structure of the forest mass. Up to three different species of forest trees are
identified, each with their development stage, percentage occupation (percentage of the
total forest occupied by this species), canopy cover for total trees (percentage of ground
covered by the horizontal projection of the canopy), and DBH (diameter at breast height),
among others.
In general terms, the vegetation resistance increases when the area has been reforested
or increasingly managed (Hutte, 1968; Stumbles, 1968). Given that planted riparian
vegetation can take decades to mature fully, it is assumed that the natural rate of LWD
recruitment would be significantly reduced in rehabilitated riparian corridors in
comparison to remnant corridors (Webb and Erskine, 2003). The type of tree (conifer,
deciduous or riparian) is also relevant to this resistance, since an abundant below-ground
root biomass anchors the tree to the substrata. In riparian vegetation the root system depth
depends on the water table, whereas in conifers it may be deeper, and therefore the
resistance to toppling may be greater (Naka, 1982; Abernethy and Rutherfurd, 2001). This
means that the recruitment potential will increase with trees in their natural state, and
even more so if they are riparian species.
2.2.2. Volume of potential recruitable wood (PRW)
The identification and spatial delimitation of possible woody material recruitment

areas have been defined in the sections above. A description follows of how the potentially
recruitable wood volume was estimated. ‘Potentially recruitable’ is used here as the
maximum number of trees that can contribute wood to the channel throughout the sub-
basin.

Once the source areas are defined and classified into different categories, the number
of trees from each area is estimated and a statistical analysis is performed.
The National Forest Map and Inventory provide the required data, however some
simplification has to be assumed. Data is provided for the three main species in any given
area and the total canopy cover (Ci) as a percentage of the total area covered by forest. The
inventory for the province of Ávila contains estimates of tree density (expressed as number
of trees per area) for each species for the whole forested territory. This latter density is
called here relative density per species (RDSPi) and is used together with the species
occupation and canopy cover to estimate final volumes in a given area. Ai is the
contributing area defined for a specific recruitment process and with an established
occurrence probability or severity:
PRWSPi=Ai·Ci·RDSPi [1]
To take into account the defined vegetation resistance and the severity of the
potential recruitment mechanism, a volume correction factor (Fc) was defined which is
equivalent to a recruitment probability. As shown in Fig. 3 and 4, this can be 1, 0.5 or 0.1.
This factor therefore reduces the total volume of potential recruitable wood in those areas
where susceptibility to the process is lowest and/or vegetation resistance is highest.
PRWti= PRWSPi·Fc [2]
Finally the total wood volume is:
PRWt=PRWls+PRWbe+PRWft [3]
where PRWsl is the potentially recruitable wood volume due to landslides; PRWbe the
potentially recruitable wood volume due to bank erosion; PRWft the potentially
recruitable wood volume due to fluvial transport during floods.
2.3. Scenario definition
Different scenarios were created based on process frequency and severity. Then, the
potential source areas were defined and classified using fuzzy associative matrices, and the
potentially available recruitable wood volumes were also estimated based on the forest data
for each scenario:

 Scenario 1: Maximum recruitment: all processes (landslides, floods and bank

erosion) take place and affect all prone areas (defined at all severity levels).
This scenario is established as unlikely to occur.
 Scenario 2: Intermediate recruitment: all processes take place but only in
those areas assigned a high severity; the probability of this scenario in the area
is low-medium.
 Scenario 3: Likely recruitment: only high severity floods and bank erosion
recruit woody material, and landslides do not take place. This probability of
this scenario in the area is medium-high, where floods occur fairly often, so it
is hypothesized as the most reliable case.
The classification of potential wood source areas was based on fuzzy logic principles
(Zadeh, 1965 and 1968; Zimmermann, 2001) which usually use IF-THEN rules such as
fuzzy associative matrices (ANNEX 1). In fuzzy logic applications non-numeric linguistic
variables are often used to facilitate the expression of rules and facts. A linguistic variable
may have a value or its antonym, or something in between, and they are useful because they
can be modified using linguistic hedges applied to primary terms.
This procedure allows the areas to be classified by the likelihood that they will recruit
wood material based on the severity of the potential recruitment process and the
vegetation resistance and abundance. Fuzzy associative matrices take into account three
categories or impact levels (high, medium and low) for all factors (process severity or
susceptibility, vegetation resistance, correction factor, etc.).
In those basins where a river flows through a populated area scenarios were
established, and the potentially recruitable wood volume was calculated. Statistical analyses
(using the R programming language, www.r-project.com) were carried out to interpret the
results, and this procedure allowed us to compare the data of the different selected basins.

2.4. Field
d observvations
Field obserrvations of in-stream

i w
woody debriis storage an
nd tree distuurbances were
w used
to evaaluate the reesults and in
nterpret thee dynamics of woody debris
d throuughout the selected
watersshed (Fig. 5). To do o this, a viisual assesssment of th
he probablle source of o wood
recruiitment or prrocess was attempted.
a
Figuure 5: Direcct and indire

rect wood reecruitment and delivery
ry evidence ccan be usedd in the
fie
field work too interpret LWD
L dynam
amics. HWM M: high watter marks, PPSI: palaeosstage
indicators
rs.
Solid mateerial (sedim ment and w wood) transsported in the stream flow may damage
trees, and this is i the basiss of dendrrogeomorph hology, whiich uses trree-ring anaalysis to
interppret geomorphic proceesses (Stofffel and Bolllschweiler, 2008; Ruiiz-Villanuevva et al.,
2010; Ballesteros et al., 2011). Evidennce from surviving
s trrees may bee used to interpret
LWD D dynamics,, which can n be particuularly usefuul when wo oody debris has been removed
r
from the river or o transporrted longer distances. Díez-Herrrero et al. ((2012) pro oposed a
unifieed classificattion for treee disturbannces caused by
b floods, and
a here theese disturbaances are
relatedd to wood recruitment
r t, delivery aand transport. For instaance, candeelabra growtth (FDE
4), decapitated trrees (FDE 6), 6 scars (FD DE 7 and 9),
9 branchess torn off (FFDE 8), naarrowing
in truunks (FDE 12) and bifurcations
b s (FDE 13)) may be related
r to L
LWD delivvery and
transpport, whereas vegetatio on patterns (FDE 1, 2,, 3), tilted trees (FDE 55) or expossed roots
(FDE E 17 and 18)) are eviden nce of LWD D recruitmen nt and poteential deliveery.
The selecteed basins were

w surveyeed in orderr to find diirect and inndirect evid dence of
LWD D dynamicss focusing on recent landslide activity,
a rivver bank eerosion, higgh flood
frequeency (i.e. hiigh water marks,
m palaeoostage indiccators, etc.)), high in-sttream wood
d storage
VIRGINIA
and external disturbances in living trees. These observations were compared with the
results obtained in the wood volume estimations.
3. Test site
The study site is in the central and eastern massif of the Sierra de Gredos, the highest
section (Almanzor Peak, 2592 m a.s.l.) of the Spanish Central System, which crosses the
Iberian Peninsula from SW to NE. The sector of Sierra de Gredos studied here is in the
south of the province of Avila, where the information required for the analysis was
available; the total area of the study site is 4658 km2.
The Sierra de Gredos is mainly composed of granite tectonic blocks sloping towards
the north and separated by a network of fault lines, running N-S and E-W. The bedrock
consists of Upper Palaeozoic granitoids. Regolith covers most of the slopes in Sierra de
Gredos, reaching a depth of 3-4 m in some places. The weathering mantle is not firmly
anchored to the slopes, so heavy rains weaken it and initiate shallow landslides and debris
flows (Palacios et al., 2003; Ruiz-Villanueva et al., 2011).
This tectonic history determines the most important geomorphologic characteristic

of the Sierra de Gredos: a steep southern wall (with a 2000 m drop in 8 km) cut only by
short ravines and a gentler northern slope, broken by longer, deeper valleys. These
mountains are the natural division between the basins of the Rivers Tagus and Duero.
The area studied here is surrounded by the main tributaries of these two important
rivers: the Tiétar to the S, the Adaja to the NE, the Tormes to the NW, the Alberche to
the E and the Jerte to the W (Fig. 6).

Figure 6: Location of the study site
The climate of the study area is Continental Mediterranean. This climate is

determined by the frequent arrival of Atlantic depressions from the SW during autumn,
winter and spring and by the predominant Azores anticyclone causing very dry summers
(only 10% of annual precipitation). On the northern slope, the mean annual precipitation
is 554 mm at 1007 m a.s.l., 1704 mm at 1200 m a.s.l.; and estimated around 2000 mm at
2000 m a.s.l., of which 77% falls as snow. The south face of the Sierra de Gredos creates a
formidable orographic barrier to southwesterly storms. Records show that approx. every 3
years rainfall exceeds 250 mm in 1 week (Palacios et al., 2010).
Several factors also determine the occurrence of frequent flash floods. These include
the high drainage density, the morphology of the headwaters and the generally small basin
areas with very steep average slope, resulting in a very short response times.
There is abundant forested mass in the area (2358 km2 or 50.6% of the study site),
and different species are found depending on altitude (Fig.7). At higher altitudes, where
the extreme climatic characteristics impede the development of tree or shrubs the main

grass species are Festuca sp. and Carex sp. At lower levels shrubs (Cytisus sp.) and stretches
of high mountain conifers such as Pinus sylvestris are present. At lower altitudes this latter
species is replaced by Pinus pinaster which usually appears with Genista florida, Ilex
aquolifolium, Erica arborea and Sorbus aucuparia. Lower down, the forest is composed
mainly of deciduous trees such as Quercus pyrenaica and Quercus ilex. The vegetation
found on the river banks is predominantly Alnus glutinosa and Fraxinus angustifolia.
Figure 7: Land use and forested canopy cover of the study region.
Basins with a river flowing through a populated area (assuming potential flood risks)
were selected for further analysis and field surveys (Table 1) and are highlighted in Fig 7.

Table 1: Selected basins and main characteristics.
4. Results
The obtained results are grouped in three sections: (i) wood contributing areas; (ii)
potentially recruitable wood volumes; and (iii) field observations.
4.1. Wood contributing areas due to landslides, bank erosion

and fluvial transport during floods.
The landslide-prone areas according to the stability model results make up around 10
% (461 km2) of the study site. Close to 55% of these areas (254 km2) fall into the medium
susceptibility category, and just 30% (138 km2) and 15% (71 km2) are considered to have
high and low landslide susceptibility respectively.

A 50 m buffer zone was set around these landslide-prone areas as the toppling
influence area. This increases the potential area that could be affected by landslides by
233.11 km2 (695 km2 in total). 75% of this area is very or fairly well connected to the
channel which means that trees in these areas may reach the channel due to landslide
recruitment. However, only 158 km2 (32%) of this area is forested according to the
National Forest database.
From the flood hazard assessment of the whole area, the flood severity for around
10% of the watersheds is classified as very high, 32% as high, 43% as medium and 15% as
low.
The Quaternary units delineated in relation to flood processes occupy a total area of
610 km2. Of these, 50.5% (308 km2) are stream bed or channels, 10.5% (65 km2)
floodplains and bars, 3% (17 km2) terraces, and 36% (221 km2) other formations (fans,
etc.).
The likelihood of potential recruitment of wood material in these areas due to floods
was classified as: high, 47 % (288 km2), medium, 15% (88 km2), and low, 38% (232 km2).
Only 20% (123 km2) of the defined areas are forested. The analysis of these parameters and
variables of each selected basin is shown in Table 2.
Table 2: Defined forested areas, areas prone to landslides, floods and bank erosion for
selected basins. Percentages indicate the ratios between the total forested area and the
delineated area defined in the previous column.

The forested area was classified based on the vegetation resistance following the
methodology described above (see Fig. 8). The vegetation resistance to recruitment of the
total forested area (2358 km2) is classified as: low, 40%, medium, 47% , high, 13%.
Figure 8: Vegetation clasification based on the resistance to be recruited, and pie

chart with areas.
4.2. Potentially recruitable wood volume: theoretical

predictions
After analysing the contributing areas defined for the different recruitment
processes, the vegetation resistance and the forest density (3 main species, canopy cover
and relative density) theoretical predictions were obtained of the number of trees
potentially recruitable in each scenario (Table 3 and Fig. 9). Since there may be some
uncertainties in the sources used for the analysis, these numbers are taken here as orders of
magnitude, and used to identify the main recruitment processes and compare basins.

Table 3: Results of potentially recruitable trees obtained for the selected basins. SC1: Scenario 1; SC2: Scenario 2; SC3:
Scenario 3 and percentage of total.
234

Figure 9: Number of potentially recruitable trees for the selected 14 basins for (A) Scenario
1, (B) Scenario 2, (C) Scenario 3.

Some observations can be made from the results. In Scenarios 1 and 2 the major
recruitment process is slope movements in terms of the number of recruitable trees, except
for the basin called Navaluenga 1. There are no major differences between Scenarios 1 and
2 regarding the importance of landslide and fluvial transport during floods, whereas bank
erosion seems to be less important in Scenario 2 (except for Navaluenga 1 where it is the
main recruitment process together with floods in both scenarios).
Based on the interpretation of Fig. 9, some basins seem to show different behaviour
in all scenarios. To analyse this observation in detail a cluster analysis (hierarchical
clustering using Ward's method) was carried out based on the number of recruitable trees,
basin area, forested area, landslide-prone area, flood-prone area and bank erosion-prone
area for each scenario (Fig. 10).
For Scenarios 1 and 2 three different groups are defined, whereas for Scenario 3, two
groups were distinguished. This reveals different behaviour between several groups, but
highlights similarities between some basins: Arenas, Candeleda, Guisando, La Adrada,
Navaluenga 1, Navaluenga 2 and Venero.
Linear regression and graphical correspondence analysis allowed us to evaluate the

significance and relationship of these variables with the number of potentially recruitable
trees obtained in each scenario (Fig. 11).
Regression analysis showed a significant relationship between recruitment wood

volume and recruitment processes, and the relationship to the basin or forested areas is less
significant (p-value=0.61-0.36). In Scenarios 1 and 2 the landslide-prone area is the most
significant variable (p-value=0.00521 and p-value=0.000110 respectively), whereas in
Scenario 3 the most significant variable is the flood-prone area (p-value=8.19e-06) and the
significance of the relationship of the basin area and forested area decreases (lowest p-
values=0.36).


(C)
4.3. FIELD SURVEY
Figure 10: Dendograms of hierarchical clustering using Ward's method. Dendograms for
(A) Scenario 1. (B) Scenario 2. (C) Scenario 3.

Figure 11: (A, B, C) Graphs of a correspondence analysis for each scenario. Basin: basin
area; Veg_Area: forested area; Lnd: landslide-prone area: H_Lnd: high severity landslide-
prone area; Ft: flood- and bank erosion-prone area; H_Ft: high severity flood-prone area;
H_Be: high severity bank erosion-prone area.

The field work allowed us to interpret the results, and certain indicators were used to
corroborate the hypotheses proposed (Table 4), although in some cases they may not be
perfectly correlated.
Table 4: Summary of field observations in the selected basins: YES (with shading)=
observed: NO = not observed. In bold : Group 1 and 2 for Scenarios 1 and 2, and group 2
for Scenario 3. *See comments.
Table 4 shows that two or more field indicators were found in some basins. These
basins (shown in bold) also showed the highest wood volume estimates and were grouped
together in the cluster analysis: Arenas, Candeleda, Guisando, La Adrada, Navaluenga 1,
Navaluenga 2 and Venero.

5. Discussion
The following section discusses the proposed methodology and the results obtained,
analyses some errors and limitations and highlights some potential applications.
5.1. Large wood recruitment: sources and volumes
The aim of this paper was to propose a method to define recruitment areas due to
landslides, floods and bank erosion, and to estimate the volume of potentially recruitable
wood depending on process severity.
Other recruitment processes such as wind, snow, fire or chronic wood decay are
outside the scope of this study. Wood decay could be included as a percentage of the total
wood volume (if data are available), since tree mortality and fall rates can generate some
variation in wood recruitment (Benda et al., 2003).
The whole analysis was based on existing hazard maps, available morphometric
information derived from DEMs, geological and geomorphological spatial information and
forestry inventory and maps. A GIS was used to obtain a spatially distributed analysis of
potential LWD source areas and estimated wood volumes. Multi-criteria and multi-
objective evaluation and fuzzy logic principles were used to define reliable scenarios,
classifying areas by the likelihood of wood material recruitment based on potential
recruitment processes, vegetation resistance and abundance. Fuzzy associative matrices
allowed all the available information to be used reliably based on the three categories or
impact levels defined. The fuzzy algebraic operations assign consistency to all
combinations, and the end result of the procedure is a series of scenarios (similar to the
formative scenarios defined by Scholz and Tietje, 2002), which include all the levels
mentioned above.
The potentially recruitable number of trees was successfully estimated for each
scenario using this method. ‘Potentially recruitable’ has been defined as the number of
trees that may contribute wood to the channel throughout the basin. This concept has
been used before (Kasprak et al., 2011). However, these authors evaluated the number of
vegetation pixels (based on LIDAR DEM) that were tall enough to span the channel,
rather than individual trees.

The amount of wood in streams (wood budget) was estimated by Martin and Benda
(2001), Benda and Sias (2003) and May and Gresswell (2003). Based on in-channel wood
volume, they developed simplified mathematical expressions to estimate LWD flux; here
the number of standing trees located in the recruitment source areas that could reach the
streams was computed. Mazzorana et al. (2009) defined an expression to estimate the
relative availability of recruitable woody material. However, this is a synthetic indicator for
the relative propensity of a basin for entrainment and delivery of woody material under
given transport conditions. In a later work, Mazzorana et al. (2011) established using pixels
the maximum amount (m3) of transported woody material during a flood event; here
different scenarios based on severity levels of recruitment processes (not a given event)
have been taken into account.
The three main scenarios proposed are based on previous knowledge of the area and
the processes involved. Thus, Scenario 1 was defined as unlikely to occur because the
probability of a landslide occurring in all the delineated areas is very low (defined by
different susceptibility levels). However, this is a high risk flood-prone region (Díez-
Herrero, 2003), and therefore Scenario 3 is the most realistic. Analysing the three cases also
allowed us to compare the potential behaviour of all the basins (recruitment capacity) and
highlight those areas where recruitment processes may occur.
Lienkaemper and Swanson (1987) showed that some morphometric characteristics

may be related to wood delivery (e.g. basin size). According to Montgomery et al., 2003 the
recruitment processes may have different patterns based on different reaches of a river,
with landslides as the predominant process in small steep headwater basins and bank
erosion the most important process leading to wood inputs to larger floodplain rivers. The
work carried out by Seo et al. (2012) revealed that in small watersheds with narrow
channels, mass movements (landslides and debris flows) were major factors in the LW
production and transport; in intermediate and large watersheds with wider channels,
flooding was the main factor triggering LW movement. In the study area the basin size is
not such a significant factor (p-value=0.36) since the wood recruitment is controlled by
the processes that deliver wood to rivers, as shown by the correspondence analysis.
The results of the analyses show clearly the different behaviour of some basins in
terms of the number of potentially recruitable trees, basin area, forested area and
recruitment source areas. These basins (highlighted in bold in Table 4) may have a higher
wood recruitment capacity based on the results of the analyses and field observations.
Although the sources and mechanism of wood recruitment may vary across regions, the
method presented here clarifies and explains these differences on a regional scale, enabling
areas for detailed studies or field surveys to be identified. The field work highlighted the
need to establish indicators to interpret the LWD dynamics at reach scale, especially when
no direct evidence is found and woody debris has been removed from the river or

transported longer distances. The dendrogeomorphic evidence observed in living trees is

particularly useful, and a key table to infer the LWD dynamics has been provided. As far as
the authors are aware, there are no previously published indicators or tables of this type in
the literature. Even so, some cases may not be perfectly correlated.
5.2. Potential errors and limitations
We acknowledge some limitations of the conceptual model, and probably one of the
most striking findings is the validation of volume estimations. Although exact numbers are
obtained, this analysis may be accompanied by some uncertainties and the results must
therefore be considered as orders of magnitude. One source of uncertainty is the input data
used (the level of detail of the procedure is restricted to the detail defined (scale) of hazard,
geological, topographical and forestry maps). Possible inaccuracies in earlier estimated
landslide and flood susceptibility are outside the scope of this work. Besides the previously
published landslide and flood maps, we defined stream bank erosion-prone areas. The
factors controlling stream bank erosion are complex and interrelated and may require
detailed field data. However, the aim here was to analyse this process as a potential wood
recruiting mechanism; the stream bank erosion susceptibility was inferred from two other
indicators, the stream sinuosity and transport capacity, and the erosion-prone areas were
defined following the method used for flooding.
The use of different scales and various information sources may also alter the results
to some extent. It is not possible to test the theoretical predictions made in this paper fully,
but to estimate the uncertainty related to the delineation of source areas a sensitivity test of
this parameter over the final recruitable tree results was carried out. A 10% interval
reduction in the recruitment area was computed and recruitable trees were recalculated.
Fig. 12 shows the case for the landslide-prone area. The total wood volume showed a linear
decrease ranging from 10% to 35%. Therefore, up to 25% error is associated with the
source area delineation.

Figure 12: Model sensitivity analysis. Graph shows landslide-prone area reduction (%) and
recruitable trees reduction (%).
In the delineated source areas the probability of a tree entering the stream was
quantified based on the paper by Robison and Beschta (1990). These probabilities were
incorporated into the method using the volume correction factor. This factor therefore
reduces the total volume of potential recruitable wood in those areas where the process
susceptibility is lowest and/or vegetation resistance is highest. The vegetation resistance
was established based on the tree species and forest stage, and on previous work by Hutte
(1968), Stumbles (1968), Naka (1982), Abernethy and Rutherford (2001) and Webb and
Erskine (2003). This concept may be equivalent to the structural classification of forested
areas made by Blaschke et al. (2004) and the woody debris availability indicator used by
Mazzorana et al. (2011). The volume correction factor can also be subjective, and the
modification of this coefficient may change the final results. However, in the authors’
opinion, 100% recruitment is not reliable; therefore, the maximum probability value (%)
was used to obtain maximum potential recruitable volumes.

Analysis of the results focused on the basins crossed by rivers provided an overview of
those areas potentially at risk from large woody debris transport during floods. According
to our findings, 7 of the 14 basins studied showed enough evidence in the field and in the
theoretical calculations to affirm that LWD transport takes place and may be a potential
hazard during flood events. Many studies show that woody material transported in the
flow is responsible for increasing flood hazard impact (Comiti et al, 2008; Mao and
Comiti, 2010; Rickenmann and Koschni, 2010). Hence, woody material transport cannot
be ignored in reliable hazard assessment. The authors of this paper also assume that the
WD contribution is due to an episodic process, a landslide or flood (Wohl et al., 2011), so
that transport will be congested (Braudrick et al., 1997). This type of transport may result
in clogging or obstructions at critical stream configurations such as bridges. Some studies
have included this phenomenon in flood hazard analysis (Merten et al., 2010; Mazzorana
et al., 2010, 2011; Ruiz-Villanueva et al., 2012). In all these studies estimates of wood
volumes are required as input.
The method presented here may be useful as a first step in the identification of those
basins where there may be significant amounts of LWD and in the preliminary definition
of wood loads for physically-based LWD modelling (Ruiz-Villanueva et al., under review).
The proposed methodology can also be used for river and forest restoration and
management (Hilderbrand et al., 1998). Knowing the spatial patterns of LWD
recruitment can provide a watershed context for understanding geomorphic and ecological
processes associated with LWD (Martin and Benda, 2001). This may help land managers
to identify the relative importance of different recruitment processes, knowing where and
how much LWD is recruited. Forecasts of future conditions could also be simulated using
different forestry cover. This allows estimates of changing conditions of source areas and
wood volumes in a changing perspective of land use or stand dynamics (Swanson et al.,
1998). Scenarios for climate change could also be incorporated. The same is true for
predictions based on changing recruitment processes (i.e. types, frequency and severity), so
that the recruitment capacity can be analysed at a basin scale.

6. Conclusions
This paper presents a method to define areas that may contribute to the delivery of
woody material to streams on a regional scale. The method takes into account the
importance of different recruitment processes (landslides, fluvial transport and bank
erosion during floods), creating reliable scenarios based on process severity and also
provides estimates of recruitable wood volumes for each scenario.
The method provides a suitable approach to set realistic basin-wide targets defining
the LWD recruitment capacity and estimate the order of magnitude of the maximum
wood volume contributed. In the study area, 7 of the 14 basins showed enough evidence in
the field and in theoretical calculations to conclude that LWD transport takes place and it
could be a potential risk with the highest potential recruitable wood volume (expressed as
thousands of trees). The results can be used to characterize the dynamics of woody debris
from the perspective of potential risk from its transport during floods. To improve this
hazard analysis it is crucial to predict the relative propensity of streams for the entrainment
and delivery of woody material.
Acknowledgements
This work was funded by MAS Dendro-Avenidas project and the Geological Survey of Spain
(IGME). The first author is most grateful to Ángel Prieto and Margarita Sanabria (IGME) for their
suggestions in the GIS analysis, and the Spanish Ministry of the Environment for providing the forest map
and inventory data.

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4.5. 2D MODELLING OF WOOD

TRANSPORT
1.1. Wood in rivers
1.2. Wood transport in Iber model
(4.5). 2. Model set-up
2.1. Model implementation
2.1.1. Incipient motion and wood transport regimes
2.1.2. Wood velocity and orientation
2.1.3. Turbulence
2.1.4. Wood interactions
2.1.5. Influence of wood in hydrodynamics
2.1.6. Initial and boundary conditions
2.2. Model validation
2.2.1. Flume settings
2.2.2. Methods of observation
(4.5). 3. Results
3.1. General settings
3.2. Results of log motion

3.3. Results of turbulence incorporation

3.4. Results: log interactions
3.5. Results: influence of logs on hydrodynamics
4.1. Implications and limitations
4.2. Applying the model to real rivers
REFERENCE:
Ruiz-Villanueva, V., E. Bladé Castellet, M. Sánchez Juny, B. Martí, J.M. Bodoque, A. Díez
Herrero. Floating wood transport: 2D Model developing and flume experiments.
Partial content of this section was submitted to Journal of Hydraulic Engineering.

ABSTRACT
The transport of wood material in rivers has been the subject of various studies in
recent years. Most research has focused on the geomorphologic role of woody debris, its
recruitment processes and spatial distribution in streams. In this paper, a numerical
hydrodynamic model has been developed to simulate wood transport in rivers, together
with other fluvial processes such as sediment transport and turbulence. This tool has been
implemented as a new computational module into the Iber two-dimensional hydraulic
simulation software. The new module calculates the position and velocity of differently
shaped logs using a kinematic and a dynamic approach, both based on the balance of forces
involved in the wood movement. These approaches consider the interaction between the
logs themselves and between the logs and the channel configuration. Prototype-scale flume
experiments validated the capacity of the model to reproduce accurately the movement of
floating logs in a straight channel with constraints. This paper presents a first attempt to
include wood transport in two-dimensional hydrodynamic river simulation. This new
modelling capacity will potentially improve hazard and risk analyses, optimize
infrastructure design and facilitate river management and restoration tasks.
Keywords: large woody debris, 2D hydraulic modelling, IBER, floods.


1. Introduction
1.2. Wood in rivers
The mobilization of woody material in forested mountain streams is important for

several reasons. Apart from ecological and hydro-geomorphic considerations, one of the
most important reasons is the potential hazard it represents for communities in areas
adjacent to streams. As the transported woody material is usually entrapped at critical
stream geometry configurations (e.g. at bridges), it may cause backwater flooding,
dramatically increasing the destructive power of floods.
The flood events which occurred in Switzerland and western Austria in 2005 were
characterized by increased impact and associated losses due to the transport of woody
material, as described by Mazzorana et al., 2010a and 2010b. The damage and extreme
water stages observed in a mountain basin in the Slovenian Alps in 2007 were ascribed, at
least partly, to the collapse of temporary dams formed by sediments and large woody
debris, according to Comiti et al., 2008a and 2008b. The effects of changing channel
morphology during flood events and the reduction of cross-sectional area due to wood
clogging were found to amplify process intensities significantly (e.g., Lyn et al., 2007; Mao
and Comiti, 2010). In central Spain, the influence that wood transport during floods has
on hazard patterns may also be considerable (Ruiz-Villanueva et al., under review).
The Japanese government makes enormous efforts to protect cities from so-called
‘floating log disasters’, yet little is known about the physical dynamics of large woody debris
(LWD) transport (Braudrick et al., 1997).
In spite of the important consequences of woody debris (WD) in fluvial corridors on

stream hydraulics, morphology and sediment transport (Montgomery, 2003; Montgomery
and Piegay, 2003), its dynamics and effects were hardly considered by researchers until the
1980s. Since then, most studies have focused on the morphological role of WD, its
recruitment processes, and its spatial distribution in streams (Thevenet et al., 1998;
Jackson, 2002; Hupp and Bornette, 2003; Kraft, 2003; Montgomery, 2003; Swanson,
2003; Moulin and Piegay, 2004; Andreoli et al., 2007; Comiti et al., 2007, 2008a, 2008b;
Magilligan et al., 2008; Wohl and Jaeger., 2009; Wohl et al., 2011; Wohl, 2011).
On the other hand, the influence of LWD on flow resistance has only been examined
by a few researchers (Manga and Kirchner, 2000; MacFarlane and Wohl 2003; Wilcox et

al., 2008). Some studies have attempted to characterize the transport and hydrodynamics
of wood in rivers in quantitative terms. In this research, WD mobilization has been
investigated in laboratory flumes either by combining detailed hydraulic predictions of
flume studies with real data from field studies, and/or through analytical approaches
(Braudrick and Grant, 2000; Braudrick et al., 2001; Haga, 2002; Bocchiola et al., 2002,
Buxton, 2010; Wohl et al., 2011 and Wohl, 2011). These studies successfully predicted
woody material entrainment based on the balance of hydrodynamic and resistance forces
and some of them dealt with transport regimes.
In recent years, a few studies have been carried out to incorporate this phenomenon
into flood hazard and risk analysis, e.g. as a stochastic process (Merten et al., 2010;
Mazzorana et al., 2010a; Mazzorana et al., 2010b), but there is no tool currently available
to simulate hydrodynamic and other fluvial processes (sediment transport, turbulence etc.)
together with wood transport.
The main aim of this paper is to develop a numerical method for simulating the
transport of wood in rivers based on the water levels and flows obtained with a two
dimensional hydrodynamic model.
1.2. Wood transport in Iber model
The model presented here was developed in Fortran programming language and
implemented as a module (Woody Iber) into the Iber (Corestein et al., 2010) two-
dimensional hydrodynamic software, developed by CIMNE, GEAMA group (UDC) and
Flumen Research Institute (UPC). Iber (www.iberaula.es) is a numerical tool for the
two-dimensional simulation of turbulent free surface unsteady flow and sediment
transport in watercourses. At present, Iber has three main computational modules: a
hydrodynamic module, a turbulence module and a sediment transport module. The
hydrodynamic module solves the depth-averaged shallow water equations (2D-SWE)
(two-dimensional St. Venant equations). The turbulence module allows turbulent

stresses to be included in the hydrodynamic calculation, thus enabling its use by different
turbulent models for shallow waters (it includes a parabolic model, a mixing length model
and a k-ε model). The sediment transport module solves the Exner sediment conservation
equation together with the bedload and the turbulent suspended load transport equations
to predict the evolution on the river bed.

The hydrodynamic equations (two-dimensional shallow water equations), the

turbulence equations and sediment transport equations are solved using the finite volume
method with a high resolution (second order and non-oscillatory) extension of Roe’s
upwind scheme, a time explicit scheme, on non-structured meshes. The finite volume
method is one of the most widely used in computational fluid dynamics (Leveque, 2002;
Versteeg and Malalasekera, 2007), and has also been used for shallow water equations since
the mid-1990s (Vazquez-Cendón, 1999). Recently, this technique has been used in many
research models, as well as in commercial software packages for flood analysis, such as
Infoworks (Andres et al., 2008), latest versions of Mike Flood (DHI, 2002) and Tuflow, or
Guad2D (Murillo et al., 2007) mainly because of its advantages when simulating flows
with shocks, such as front waves or hydraulic jumps, and the possibility of using
unstructured irregular meshes.
The wood transport module presented here allows the inclusion of wood pieces in
the simulation, combining an Eulerian scheme for water flow with a Lagrangian approach
for wood transport. The method uses the flow variables calculated with the hydrodynamic
module to update the position and velocity of the wood logs at each time step. The wood
transport method can thus be combined with any 2D hydraulic computer modelling
package using an explicit scheme, such as the majority of newly developed schemes based
on the finite volume and the finite element methods.
Flume experiments were carried out to validate the model. The behaviour of wood in
rivers was simulated by the model and reproduced on a prototype-scale for different flume
configurations and flow conditions. Several types of dowels served as LWD. The
experiments were recorded and the log trajectories obtained from the videos were
compared with the results of the numerical simulation.
The structure of this paper is as follows: Section 2.1 shows the model
implementation which contains: (i) analyses of the incipient motion and wood transport
regimes implemented; (ii) calculation of the wood velocity and orientation ; (iii)
description of the influence of turbulence; (iv) interactions between logs and obstructions;
(v) effect of logs on the hydrodynamics; (vi) the initial and boundary conditions of the
wood. Section 2.2 describes the model validation procedure by flume experiments. Section
3 presents and compares experimental and numerical results. Finally, Section 4 discusses
the results obtained, highlighting the implications and limitations of the proposed
numerical model at present. A discussion of potential applications and use in real rivers is
also provided.

2. Model set-up
2.1. Model implementation
First of all, the incipient motion and transport regimes have to be established. Then,
if the entrainment is considered, the wood will react according to the forces acting on each
log. Therefore, flow exerts an influence on the logs but the opposite is also true, as the
presence of logs will affect the flow hydrodynamics. The Lagrangian scheme developed for
wood pieces computes all the log parameters (position, velocity, rotation angle, shear stress
etc.) in the centre of mass and at the ends of each log. At the same time the hydrodynamic
parameters (affected by the influence of the log presence) are computed using the Eulerian
scheme.
2.1.1. Incipient motion and wood transport regimes
Wood entrainment is considered in relation to a model based on the balance of

forces in the direction of flow acting on wood in streams (Fig.1).
The gravitational force ( Fg ) acting on the log is equal to the effective weight of the
log ( Fw ) in the downstream direction and is equal to
Fg  Fw  sin   ( g   w  Lw  Aw  g    Lw  Asub )  sin  [1]

Fig.1:: Schematicc and body-fforce diagraam of the foorce balancee componennts acting on
n a piece
of wood.d.
where Lw is the piecce length,  w and  are the densitiesd off wood annd water
respecctively,  is
i the bed angle
a of thee bed slopee, g is gravvity, Aw is the area off the log
perpenndicular to piece lengtth (Fig.1)
Aw    Dw / 4
2
[2]
and Asub iss the submeerged area oof the log perpendicul
p lar to piecee length exp
posed to
drag.
Asub is a fu
unction of the
t log drafft ( y ) and piece diam
meter ( Dw ),, which forr a right-
circulaar cylinder resolves to
  
Asub  2  ccos 1 1  2  y / Dw   sinn 2  cos 1 1  2  y / Dw   Dw / 8
2
[3]
and the proojected log area:

a
A´ Asub  cos   y  Lw  sin  [4]
where  is the angle of

o the piece relative to flow, with  = 0º wheen the log iss parallel
to flow
w, and h is flow
f depth.
VIRGINIA
The friction force in the opposite flow direction ( F f ) is equal to the normal force (
Fn  Fw  cos  ) acting on the log times the coefficient of friction between the wood and
the bed:
F f  Fn   bed  ( g   w  Lw  Aw  g    Lw  Asub )   bed  cos  [5]
where bed is the coefficient of friction between the wood and the bed.
The drag force ( Fd ), also in the flow direction, is the downstream drag exerted on
the log by the water in motion and is equal to
Fd  U flow  U log  / 2    C d  Lw  y  sin   Asub  cos  

2
[6]
Where Uflow is the water velocity, U log is the log velocity and Cd is the drag
coefficient of the wood in water. This last parameter has been analysed extensively before.
Brooks et al., (2006) proposed 1.2 for wood in real streams, and Bocchiola et al., (2006)
found a value of 1.41 for dowels in flume experiments. In this study it is assumed constant
but the modeller can change its value in each simulation.
The combination of these three equations yields the force balance at incipient
motion for a circular cylinder lying on the river bed: F f  Fg  Fd
g   w  Lw  Aw  g    Lw  Asub    bed  cos   sin  
[7]
 U flow / 2    C d  Lw  h  sin   Asub  cos  
2
where h is the water depth. Thus, the velocity corresponding to Fg  Fd / F f  1 ,

here called threshold velocity U lim (following the proposed nomenclature by Mazzorana et
al., 2011 with some modifications), for the movement of the wood element, is determined
by
( g   w  Lw  Aw )  g    Asub  Lw    bed  cos   sin  

2
U lim  [8]
0.5  C d    Lw  h  sin   Asub  cos 
They used the average flow velocity ( U flow ) as reference velocity for the moving
woody material for a wide range of flow conditions, and then the velocity along the
transport trajectory for each moving woody material ( U log ) model log is estimated as
U log  (1  C*)  U flow [9]

where C * is a transport inhibition parameter, which is equal to 0 when the wood

material element is floating, equal to 1 when a resting condition is imposed on the wood
material, and C*  1  h / Dw if the transport regime is either sliding or rolling.
The transport inhibition parameter ( C * ) was recalculated using the relative velocity
of the water in relation to the log ( U r  U flow  U log )
C*  U lim / U flow [10]
Then, substituting C * in [9]:
U log  U flow  U lim [11]
Given these results and based on the log density, log diameter and water depth, four
main scenarios can be distinguished and related to the transport regimes (Fig. 2).
In Fig. 2, scenario A, the log density is assumed to be greater than the water density,
and the water depth is lower than the log diameter and equal to the submerged log
diameter. In this situation if U lim  U flow the resting condition is imposed on the log, and if
U lim  U flow the log will move, sliding with velocity U log  U flow  U lim .
When the log density is greater than the water density and the water depth is higher
than the log diameter and higher than the submerged log diameter, i.e. the log is
completely submerged (Fig. 2, scenario B), then again if U lim  U flow the log will move and
slide, otherwise it will repose. The log velocity is U log  U flow  U lim
(  w   )  g  Lw  Aw  bed  cos  sin  

2
where U lim  [12]
0.5  Cd    Lw  Dw  sin   Aw  cos 

Fig.2: Cross section of a piece of wood in a stream in different conditions. (A): Log density
greater than water density, and water depth lower than log diameter. (B): Log density
greater than water density, and water depth higher than log diameter (C): Log density
lower than or equal to water density, and water depth higher than or equal to log diameter.
(D): Log density lower than or equal to water density, and water depth lower than log
diameter. Log diameter (Dw), water depth (h), submerged log area (Asub) and submerged
log diameter (y).
When the log density is equal to or lower than the flow density and the water depth
is higher than the log diameter and higher than the submerged log diameter (Fig. 2,
scenario C), then the log will float, U lim  0 , and will be transported with a velocity equal
to the flow velocity, except in the case of interaction with other logs or channel walls.
In Fig. 2, scenario D, the log density is equal to or lower than the flow density and the
water depth is lower than the log diameter and equal to the submerged log diameter, then
U lim is calculated using equation 8. If U lim  U flow the resting condition is imposed, and if
U lim  U flow the log will slide with velocity: U log  U flow  U lim . The log will only float
when  w  Aw    Asub , going back to scenario C.
As well as sliding, a piece may also move by rolling (Bocchiola et al., 2006) in
scenarios A, B and D, but the moment forces involved are beyond the scope of this study.
Here the focus is on a floating regime since this is the main wood transport regime during
flood events (Ballesteros et al., 2011).

2.1.2. Wood velocity and orientation
The movement of wood logs includes both translation and rotation. Two methods
have been implemented to estimate wood velocity. First, the kinematic method is based on
the work of Mazzorana et al., (2011) with some new approaches described above, thus the
velocity of a wood log is obtained from equation [11]. The second or dynamic method,
applies Newton’s second law to every log exposed to gravity, friction and drag forces, now
in vectorial form: Fg , Ff , Fd . For each time step the log velocity, now considered as a two
dimensional vector in the horizontal plane, is updated with:
n 1
Ulog  Ulog
n
 t  a [13]
where Ulog
n
is the velocity vector at time n, a is the log acceleration
Fg  Ff  Fd
a [14]
w  Lw  Aw
and t is the time step. The log position at time n X log
n
 ( xlog
n
, ylog
n
) is then updated
to time n+1 with
n 1 1
X log  X log
n
 t  U log
n
 a  t 2 [15]
2
Apart from the translatory movement described, logs turn driven by the velocity
distribution across the flow section. Because one end of the piece of wood is moving faster
than the other end, the piece rotates towards a more flow-parallel orientation. Since the
velocity field still varies across the piece, under uniform flow conditions the piece
continues to rotate towards a flow-parallel orientation until it reaches a stable orientation.
Naturally, if the flow is not uniform and the river is non-prismatic, the process produces
continuous turning of the logs which change their orientation over time. To simulate these
orientation changes the velocities at each end of every log were obtained from the flow
model. Depending on the mesh size with respect to the log size, one log can be contained in
a single mesh element (finite volume) or in more than one, the flow velocity U1flow ,2
at each
end (1 or 2) of the log is calculated from the flow velocity at the log centre U flow , the
cm
velocity gradients and the relative position of the log ends with respect to its centre:
U flow
U1flow
,2
 Ucm
flow   (X1,2  Xcm ) [16]
X

The angular velocity of the log can be obtained from the velocity values at the log
ends and thus the change in log orientation at every time step.
2.1.3. Turbulence
Although the flow in river channels is turbulent, for river flow where the geometry is
smooth enough, no re-circulation zones appear and roughness acts as the principal factor
of vortex stabilization, the inclusion of turbulence models has little or no effect on the
velocity field (Cea, 2005). Nevertheless, even in these cases it is important to consider
turbulence while modelling the transport of suspended substances or sediments as
dispersion can be affected by the turbulent viscosity. Similarly, in mountain rivers, small
swirls may appear and disappear with an almost chaotic movement, showing the
complexity of the turbulent motion and this turbulence may affect wood transport. Iber
includes several turbulence models, but for the influence of turbulence on wood transport
the Rastogi-Rodi k-ε model (Rastogi and Rodi, 1978) is used, as it can give information on
the magnitude of the turbulent kinetic energy. The k-ε model considers turbulence caused
by bed friction, velocity gradients, dissipation and convective transport.
For wood transport, therefore, turbulence is included in the simulation with the k-ε
model, and the wood velocity is re-calculated based on the turbulent velocity (Ut). This
turbulent velocity is an approximation to the instantaneous velocity reconstructed from
the mean velocity and the ratio between turbulent kinetic energy k , obtained from the k-ε
model, and mean kinetic energy K  1 / 2  U flow 2 where Uflow is the mean flow velocity.
Thus, the turbulent velocity is reconstructed as
Ut  U flow  1  R  Ti  [17]
where R is a random number between 1 and -1, and Ti is the coefficient of turbulent
restitution
k
Ti  [18]
K
Ti is the ratio between turbulent fluctuations, resulting from the internal chaotic
fluid motions that characterize turbulent flow, and mean velocity. Including this
coefficient of turbulent restitution in the wood transport simulation basically means

introducing a random component into the movement of logs placed in a turbulent flow.
Thus, identical logs dropped into the same spot may end up in different places.
2.1.4. Wood interactions
The interactions between the logs and the channel configuration and among the logs
themselves have been taken into account in the model. The focus was on the changes in log
velocity due to contact with the banks or with other pieces, but the effect of branches or
roots has been ignored .
If one piece of wood is floating in the flow and meets another piece (floating or
resting) then the two may collide and continue moving with a different velocity (Fig. 3,
(A)). This new velocity, referred to as final velocity Vf is calculated from the initial velocity
Vf for both pieces as
Vf  (1  e)  Vcm  e  Vi [19]
where
m1  V1  m2  V2
Vcm  [20]
m1  m2
is the centre mass velocity during the collision, e is the restitution coefficient (equal
to 1 assuming elastic interaction), m1 and m2 are the log masses, and V1 and V2 are the
initial velocities.
When a piece of wood reaches the bank, it can be entrapped if the slope of the
riverbank is not steep and the water level is falling or if it reaches a dry area, or it can
bounce and change its trajectory and velocity.
In the first case (Fig. 3, (B)), the driving forces decrease due to the reduction of the
submerged area, but the resisting forces are still active around the log, therefore the initial
motion condition is re-calculated.

Fig. 3: Schematic illustrations of log interactions with each other and with the river
banks. (A) In time interval 1, one piece of wood is moving in the flow direction and meets
another piece; they collide in time interval 2 and after the collision they continue moving
with different velocities. (B) Part of the log is out of the river (dry area). (C) Log hits the
bank and slides parallel to it before being reincorporated into the flow. (D) Log hits the
bank and bounces off. Different time steps are represented as t1, t2 and t3,; α is the
incidence angle.

If the log hits a bank or boundary, the log trajectory and velocity may change with a
different pattern depending on the incidence angle, as was observed in the flume
experiments. If the incidence angle is lower than a given value (a threshold of 45º is
assumed here, but this value can be modified by the modeller) the movement of the log is
treated as sliding (Fig. 3, (C)). On the other hand, if the incidence angle is higher the log
bounces and the velocity on the side of the bank decreases, and the log trajectory changes in
terms of the flow field velocity (Fig. 3, (D)).
2.1.5. Influence of wood in hydrodynamics
In natural streams, pieces of wood are often braced against obstructions in the
channel, stream banks, live vegetation, or other pieces of wood (Fig. 4; Merten et al., 2010).
The influence of woody debris (deposits or individual logs) in hydrodynamics is

solved here following the methodology proposed by Cea and Vázquez-Cedón, (2009).
They considered a reduction in the available storage volume due to small-scale obstructions
which are not resolved by the numerical mesh, with an additional drag. The drag force is
included in the flow model as an additional term similar to roughness, through additional
shear stress at every finite volume produced by the drag force of the logs in it.
F
log s
d
τ wood ,i  [21]
Vi
where τwood,i is the shear stress at every finite volume, or mesh element, i, Fd the drag
forces as in [6] and Vi the volume of the 2D finite volume, or area of mesh element, i.

Fig. 4: Sketch illustrating the influence of woody debris (deposits or individual logs) on
hydrodynamics.
2.1.6. Initial and boundary conditions
The initial conditions must be assigned to the whole domain. To do this, the initial
position of each log (x, y coordinates of mass centre and angle with respect to the flow), its
length, diameter and density are specified.
Inlet boundary conditions can also be assigned, specifying a number of pieces per
minute (or volume) as a condition. Based on the knowledge of the fluvial corridor, the
riparian vegetation, and the wood availability, ranges of maximum and minimum lengths,
diameters and density of wood are established. Then stochastic variations of these
parameters together with position and angle need to be used to characterize each piece of
wood entering the simulation.
2.2. Model validation
The numerical model was validated by means of flume experiments. The objective
here was not to study the patterns or behaviour of logs in rivers, but to test the accuracy

and performance of the numerical model described above. The flume was simulated at
scale 1:1.
2.2.1. Flume settings
Flume experiments were conducted at the Flumen Research Institute (UPC) using a
re-circulating flume with known bed-slope and roughness. The experiments were set up
based on the previous work by Braudrick et al., 1997; Braudrick and Grant, 2001;
Bocchiola et al., 2006a and 2006b; and Wilcox and Wohl, 2006, but some specific
characteristics were adapted due to the different aim of this study.
The flume is 0.6 m wide and 10 m long, with a rectangular cross section and smooth
sidewalls (see Fig. 5), and known roughness. The channel is fed with water from a re-
circulatory system. Upstream of the flume there is a cobble-filled baffle to dissipate energy
and ensure a uniform flow. All flume runs were completed with a non-erodible boundary
and no sediment transport.
These experiments were designed to validate the log transport numerical model in a
simple geometry and limit uncertainties as far as possible. Further complications with
changing bed geometry or sediment interactions were left for future research.
Round white beech wooden dowels were used to mimic the movement of a piece of
LWD under the influence of water flow. Five sizes of dowels were introduced into the
flume at three different density levels, with three different orientations in five different
geometric configurations. This procedure allowed us to obtain different scenarios (several
log shapes, log interactions, different log velocity etc.) to test the model using several
calculations, and this was the main aim of this work.
The five types of LWD pieces were: (i) type 1: short dowels (0.1 m, less than half the
flume width) with medium diameter (10 mm); (ii) type 2: medium dowels (0.2 m, close to
half the flume width) with small diameter (8 mm); (iii) type 3: medium dowels (0.2 m,
close to half the flume width) with large diameter (12 mm); (iv) type 4: long dowels (0.5
m, more than half the flume width) with medium diameter (10 mm); (v) type 5: medium
dowels (0.2 m ) with very large diameter (18 mm). The average density of this type of wood
is 720 kg m-3. The logs were painted in bright colours to facilitate monitoring.

CAPÍTULO /CHAPTER
C 4
LWWD densitties were sett at three leevels: high, medium

m an
nd low. Higgh-, mediumm-, and
low-den
nsity LWD D configurattions corresponded too 10%, 5%,, and 1.6% bed coverrage by
LWD ((LWD areaa/bed area),, or 6, 3, annd 1 pieces//channel width,
w respecctively. Agaain the
purposee here was to force log interactionns, to test th
his model caase.
Foor individuual pieces on nly, the orieentation waas changed manually iin the initiaal time
step. Thhree preferrred orientattions were ttested: paraallel, oblique and perpeendicular to
o flow,
to forcee different trajectories and
a log rotaations.
T
The straightt channel was w modifiied with seeveral lateraal constricttions and central
c
obstaclees (Fig. 5) too form diffe
ferent two-ddimensional velocity fields, differeent dischargges (12
-1
and 18 l s ) and booundary con c and 9.7 cm weir heeight) were run to
nditions (crritical, 5.8 cm
work w
with low (higgh flow velo ocity) and hhigh levels (llow flow veelocity).
Fig. 5: Flum
me geometrric configura
rations. Geoometry num
mbers refer tto Table 1.
2.2.2. Methods of observvation
Fllow depth and flow velocity wwere measurred on a regular

r gridd resulting in 40
measureed points. The waterr depth in the flumee was meassured usingg a conven ntional
limnimeter.
T
The 3D (u,, v, w) vellocity fieldd was meassured with a MicroAAcoustic Doppler
Velocim
meter (Vecttrino, www
w.nortekusa..com). Thee sampling volume off the ADV was 7
A 270 TESIS DOCTO
mm length cylinder with 1.8 mm transmit length. The control volume was located 5 cm
away from the probe to reduce flow interference. The maximum sampling rate of the
Vectrino used in the experiments was 200Hz.
The Vectrino velocity is an average of many velocity estimates (‘pings’). The

uncertainty of each ping is dominated by the short-term error, which depends on the size
of the transmit pulse and the measurement volume; it is typically a fraction of 1 cm s-1 (or
± 0.5 % of the measured value).
The calibration of the velocimeter and data recording was managed through
Vectrino Plus software (User Guide, 2009) and the raw data obtained was processed and
filtered with WinADV software (Wahl, 2000). The filtering parameters were 80%.
All flume runs were recorded using a wide-angle digital camera installed above the
flume to obtain a perpendicular overhead view. The video frames encompassed the entire
flume and were recorded at a rate of 30 frames per second.
A code was developed in Matlab to determine the log trajectory throughout the
flume. This code computes the log centre and orientation on each frame. The input data
for each run include : length, width and colour of the tested logs, and approximate angular
orientation and position of the log on the initial frame. Log dimensions and location
coordinates are specified in image pixels.
For each frame, the code computes a combination of the red, green and blue image
channels, yielding a new channel hereafter referred to as N. This combination depends on
the log colour and enhances the contrast between the log pixels and those corresponding to
the surrounding water surface and flume walls. N channels of consecutive frames (i and
i+1) are then subtracted on a pixel basis. In the resultant Ni+1 –Ni channel, maximum pixel
values indicate the log position on frame i+1, while the minima correspond to the ith
position. Then, a template with the log length and width is shifted on the Ni+1 –Ni channel
around the coordinates of the known log centre at frame i, using a range of different
orientations around the known ith orientation. For each template position and orientation,
the sum of Ni+1-Ni pixels within the template is computed. The template position giving
the maximum sum indicates the log location on frame i+1. These centre coordinates and
orientation angle are stored as those corresponding to frame i+1 and used as initial
conditions in the next iteration to compute the log location on frame i+2.

3. Results
3.1. General settings
To solve a differential equation using the finite volume method, first the studied
domain must be spatially discretized by dividing it into relatively small cells. To do this, the
different flume geometry configurations were input into the model creating different 1 cm
resolution structured meshes. For all the discharges studied the flow was subcritical at the
boundaries. At the inlet boundary the total water discharge was distributed over a uniform
unit discharge profile perpendicular to the boundary. The bed friction is defined as a
Manning roughness coefficient, which is assigned to each element of the mesh; the value of
the roughness is determined based on numerical and experimental comparison of steady
backwater profiles (0.01 s m-1/3). The simulations were run with and without turbulence.
When turbulence was included, the k-ε model was selected.
The hydrodynamic simulation represents the flow conditions in the flume with good
accuracy (numerical and experimental comparison for geometry 1, in Fig. 6); the x-
direction velocity has a correlation coefficient of 0.91 (R2=0.84). The deviation was due to
some 3D effect in the flow which cannot be simulated by the 2D model.

Figurre 6: (A) Measurement

M t points oveer velocity simulation
s of
o geometryy 1, with floow from
left tto right. (B)
B) Velocity recorded
r wit
ith the Vecttrino and sim
imulated byy the modell for the
flumme midpointt.(C) Veloci city recordedd with the Vectrino
V an
nd simulated
ed by the moodel for
the fl
flume right side.
s (D) Velocity
Ve recoorded with the
t Vectrin no and simul
ulated by the
he model
for tthe flume leeft side.
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As described above, four different geometries were used to obtain different flow
conditions (Table 1). Geometry 1 and 3 present similar water depth conditions although
discharge, velocity field and constrictions were different; geometries 2 and 4 present higher
water depth ratio (difference between inlet or maximum and outlet or minimum; see
Table 1). The highest ratio was observed in geometry 2. Geometry 3 presents the lowest
values for flow velocity and geometry 4 the highest.
Table 1: Flume test configurations.
3.2. Results of log motion
The first verification carried out was the proper simulation of the log movement,
including both translation and rotation. Various logs were placed in the flume with
different orientations as described above, and these runs were recorded and simulated. As
expected, logs placed parallel to the flow direction continued to move with this orientation
following the centre line; however, logs placed initially oblique (45º) or perpendicular
(90º) to the main flow direction turned until they reached the same orientation as in the
previous case (Fig. 7).
After these initial trials, the model log trajectories and log velocity values were
validated, testing the kinematic and dynamic methods implemented, described in the
methodology section. The simulation results were compared with the post-processed
records, analysing the model accuracy with the correlation coefficient, absolute and
squared errors and statistical significance difference (p-value); one of these simulations is
shown in Fig. 8 and statistics are provided in Table 2.

Figure 7: Numerical
N model resuults (geomeetry 3): thrree logs plaaced with different
d
otated to a more stabl
orienttations (on the left) ro ble hydrodyn namic positition, paralleel to the
flow ddirection. Log trajectorries are show
wn as blackk lines. Flow
w direction lleft to right.
Table 2: Sttatistics for the test case

se shown in
n Fig.8. X_obbs and Y_ob
obs mean X, Y
coorddinates obseerved in the flume andd eextracted from
fr the reccords. Sim_K K and sim__D mean
X, Y coordinatees resultingg from the siimulation applying
ap kin
nematic (K)) and dynam
mic (D)
methodss.
In general, both the kinematic

k aand dynam
mic methodss compute the log trajajectories
adequuately ; howwever, the dynamic m method presented higgher bias iin the log velocity
calculation.
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CAPÍTULO /CHAPTER
C 4
Fig. 8: (A and B) LogL (mass centre)

c traje
jectory in geeometry 1 observed
o and
nd simulatedd with
kinemmatic and dynamic
dy metethods (backkground is a flume imaage). (C) Loog (mass cen ntre)
loccation at eaach time step
ep, observedd (recorded and
a post-prrocessed) annd simulateed
(calcuulated by the
he numerical al model; K:: kinematic and D: dyn namic) withh turbulencee (k-e
methodd). (D) Abssolute errorr in log positition coordiinates (meteers); (E) Squ
quared errorr in log
co
coordinates..
A 276 TESIS DOCTO
The main difference between tthe two approaches iss that the kinematic method
calculates log veloocity based on the flow w velocity and
a the tran nsport inhibbition param
meter, as
both wwood and flow
f velocities are veryy similar (coorrelation co
oefficient > 0.8) but not
n equal
due too turbulencce. (When there
t is no tturbulence,, log velocity and flow velocity aree exactly
equal)). The dynaamic metho od, on the oother hand, takes log accelerationn into consid deration
(basedd on actingg forces) wh hen calculaating log veelocity (Fig. 9). This w will be discussed in
detail in the Disccussion section.
Fig. 99: Flow (V_

V_flow) and woody
w log ((mass centrre; V_log) velocity
v com
mponents (xx and y)
ssimulated by
b the numeerical modeel (A: kinem matic and B: dynamic m methods) with
w
turbuleence. Withoout turbulen
ence flow vel
elocity and log
l velocityy are equal.
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CAPÍTULO /CHAPTER
C 4
Foor the previous test caase, simulatiion results using the kinematic
k m
method are shown
in Fig. 110 together with the main
m hydroddynamic parrameters.
Fig. 10: Numerrical model results of ge

geometry 1: water
w depth
h, flow veloocity (moduule),
Frouude numberr and turbullence viscossity are show
wn togetherr with log trrajectory (bblack
lines).
li Flow
w direction left
le to right.
3.3. Resullts of turrbulence incorporration
T
Turbulence is an impo ortant issuee to consideer when modelling wa water system ms, and
thereforre a key asppect of the model validdation was the analysiis of the efffect of turb
bulence
when mmodelling loog transportt.
A 278 TESIS DOCTO
When turbbulence is simulated, tthe hydrodyynamic con nditions chaange, and represent
more precisely thhe flume flo
ow conditionns. In the previous
p exaample, if theere is no turrbulence
presennt, flow velocity increaases and thherefore thee logs move faster, incrreasing the error in
log poosition (Fig.. 11).
Fig. 111: Log (mas

ass centre) trrajectory inn Geometryy 1 observed d and simulaated with kinematic
ki
met ethod, samee case as Fig. 8 (A) Log ((mass centrre) location n at each tim
me step, obse
served:
recoorded and post-process
p ssed; simulatated: calculaated by the numerical
n mmodel (kineematic
methhod) withouut turbulencce. (B) Abso solute error in log posittion coordin
inates (meteers) over
time (C)).
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CAPÍTULO /CHAPTER
C 4
Fig. 12:
2: (A and B):
): Log (masss centre) traj
ajectory in geometry
g 2 observed
o annd simulateed with
and wwithout turrbulence. Correlation
C ccoefficient. > 0.8. (C) Log
L positioon over timee in:
observeed and simuulated. (D) Absolute
A errror in log position
p cooordinates (m
meters) over
er time.
(E) SSquared errror.
A 280 TESIS DOCTO
Depending on the hydrodynamics, turbulence may have different effects on the

simulation. Geometry 2 presents higher levels and different conditions; therefore logs will
react in a different way (Fig.12 and 13) when turbulence is avoided.
As already seen above, log trajectories do not change significantly, but log velocity
changes due to flow conditions. Table 3 shows the statistics for these simulations.
Table 3: Statistics for the test case shown in Fig.12. X_obs and Y_obs are X, Y coordinates
observed in the flume and extracted from the records. Sim and sim_k-e are X, Y
coordinates resulted from the simulation applying kinematic method without and with
turbulence respectively.
A general observation is that error seems to increases in the flume outlet in all cases.
This has led us to consider including another source of error in the validation process. This
will be discussed in Section 4.

CAPÍTULO /CHAPTER
C 4
Fi
Figure 13: Numerical
N model
m results
ts (kinematiic method) of Geometr try 2: water depth,
flow veelocity (moodule), Frouude numberr and turbullence viscossity are show wn togetherr with
l trajector
log ory (black linnes). Flow direction
d lefft to right .
3.4. Resullts: log in

nteractions
TThe interacttions betweeen the logss and the channel

c connfiguration and between the
logs theemselves haave been takken into acccount in th
he model. Fig.
F 14 show ws an exam
mple of
how wh hen a log iss moving in
n the flow aand anotheer log collid
des with it, both logs change
c
their traajectory.
A 282 TESIS DOCTO
FFig.14: Nummerical moddel results: L Log interact

ction: (A) Log
Lo is movinng and rotatting
accorrding to thee velocity fie
ield; (B) a seecond log arrrives and collides
co withh log 1 and changes
c
its trajectory. FFlow directtion left to right.
r
3.5. Resuults: influ

uence of logs on hydrodyn
h namics
One of thee most impoortant effects of wood in hydrodyynamics is thhe backwatter effect
due too clogging. Flume
F conffiguration 4 allowed uss to test thiss effect (Fig.
g. 15).
As Fig. 16 shows, thee presence oof LWD in n the flumee affected th

the hydrodyynamics.
The bbackwater efffect caused d by the enttrapped logss reduces th
he flow veloccity downsttream of
the piiers, as well as the Frou
ude numberr and the turrbulence visscosity.
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CAPÍTULO /CHAPTER
C 4
Fig. 115: Flume geometry

ge 4: two central
al piers. Logs
gs were enterring the flum
ume and moost of
them
th were eentrapped by b the piers.
4. D
Discussion
A numerical model wass developedd to simulatte the hydrodynamics and other fluvial
processees (turbulen
nce etc.) with wood traansport. Th his model reepresents thhe first attem
mpt to
introduuce wood trransport intto the 2D hhydrodynam mic simulation of riverrs. The mod del has
been teested and vaalidated wiith flume eexperimentss. An in-depth discusssion of these and
other isssues (compparison witth other appproaches, potential
p uses
u and appplications etc.) e is
provideed, togetherr with a careeful analysiss of all the parameters
p described
d abbove.
A 284 TESIS DOCTO
Figure
re 16: Geommetry 4 simuulation resul
ults. (a) Logs
gs blocked (ccoloured linnes) and traj
ajectories
(bla
lack lines); (b)
( Water depth
d with aand withouut LWD ; (cc) Velocity m module witth and
with
thout LWD D ; (d) Froudde number w with and without
w LWWD ; (e) Turrbulence visscosity
with aand withoutut LWD .
VIRGINIA
4.1. Implications and limitations
The main simplification assumed by the model was the shape of the logs as cylinders,
avoiding the effect of branches or roots. This geometry is not representative of woody
debris with complex shapes, but it provides a good approximation which has been used by
several researchers (see Bocchiola et al., 2008; Braudrick et al., 1997; Buxton, 2010;
Mazzorana et al., 2011), and may provide a picture of non-rooted and defoliated logs often
occurring in rivers as a result of fluvial transport, wood harvesting and forest fires
(Bocchiola, 2011). Braudrick and Grant (2000) proposed a theoretical method to attach
the rootwad to a log using a disk on the cylinder ends. This will be taken into account for
future developments.
The general approach of initial motion is based on previous works (see Braudrick and
Grant, 2000; Haga et al., 2002; Mazzorana et al., 2011) but some modifications have been
made. Since the numerical model calculates the flow and log velocities at every time step
when the incipient motion is computed we modified the transport inhibition parameter (
C * ) proposed by Mazzorana et al., 2011, using the relative velocity of the water in relation
to the log velocity, instead of the flow average velocity.
Logs may move by rolling, sliding or floating. These transport regimes are simulated
by the model using the relations between log and flow densities, water depth and log
diameter. When these parameters are calculated the model assigned one of these regimes to
each log (each time step), and with this method, floating logs can be simulated and also
rolling or sliding logs (although the moment forces involved are outside the scope of this
study at this stage), but the model does not take the Z coordinate into account.
Then the log velocity is calculated as described above, using kinematic and dynamic
methods; velocity is broken down into two dimensions (X and Y axes). Most research on
log motion uses continuity or Manning equations to estimate flow velocity based on float
and stop watches (Braudrick and Grant, 2000 and 2001; Bocchiola et al., 2008; Bocchiola,
2011) or measures reach-average velocity using salt dilution methods (Wilcox and Wohl,
2006); some others used 1D or 2D models (Mazzorana et al., 2011; Merten et al., 2010),
first computing the hydraulics (1D or 2D) and then using the results to calculate the wood
mobilization. Here the two horizontal components of log velocity are calculated for each
time-step at each end of every log and at the log centre based on the flow model at the same
time as the flow velocity. According to our findings, at present the kinematic method
reproduces the log movement more precisely (in time and space), and therefore the
dynamic method will have to be improved.

Here the log translation is calculated and also the log rotation and orientation for
every time step. This has been achieved by computing the calculations in the log centre
mass and at both log ends.
The drag coefficient of the wood in water is an important parameter in the log
velocity calculation that must be discussed here. Natural pieces of wood may also have a
greater drag due to skin friction (Merten et al., 2010) but this has not been taken into
account in this paper. In this approach, the drag coefficient is used as a constant value,
which can be modified according to each case simulated. This coefficient varies with the
log shape, its position in the stream and Reynolds number. However, the drag coefficient
on many different shapes of bodies has been studied extensively. Brooks et al., (2006)
reviewed the literature and selected a value of 1.2 for wood in streams, whereas Bocchiola
et al., (2006) used 1.41 for dowels in flume. We take the value proposed by this latter
author. According to our findings, this parameter is less important for the kinematic
method, but for the dynamic method it is more sensitive (Fig.17). Therefore, we do not
discard modifying this approach and calculating it as a variable in the future.
The displacement of wood may be affected by turbulence, and the model is able to
incorporate this effect into the simulation. When the turbulence is computed the model
recalculates the log velocity using a coefficient of turbulence restitution as explained in
Section 2.3 above. Furthermore, the results also showed how turbulence may change due to
the presence of logs; therefore in the authors’ opinion this is an important contribution to
the hydrodynamic simulation.
The interaction between the logs themselves was solved assuming the simplest case,
elastic interaction, but a real-life case could be much more complex. The interaction
between logs and banks was simplified as well, assuming an incident angle as threshold
(based on flume observations). These interactions will be analysed and improved shortly in
a future study. As far as the authors are aware, there are no similar approaches previously
published in the relevant literature.

CAPÍTULO /CHAPTER
C 4
Fig.177: Simulatioon results for

fo geometryy 1 varying the
t drag coeefficient. (A
A) log trajecctory;
(B)) log positioon.
T
The influencce of woodyy debris onn hydrodynamics is weell establishhed, e.g. as Gippel
G
nts, reducingg average veelocity and locally
(1995) states “debrris acts as laarge roughnness elemen
ng the wateer surface profile”.
elevatin p Soome method ds can be found in th the literaturre, e.g.
Manga and Kirchn ner, 2000; Bocchiola,
B 22011; Hygeelund and Manga,
M 200 3. This effeect was
A 288 TESIS DOCTO
solved here by including drag force as an additional term similar to roughness following the
methodology proposed by Cea and Vázquez-Cedón (2009). They considered an effective
porosity parameter and additional drag to reduce available storage volume due to small-
scale obstructions which are not resolved by the numerical mesh. Of these two terms,
which are not present in the classical depth-averaged shallow water equations, drag is more
relevant, and even more so in the case of logs where only part of the depth is affected.
Probably one of the most relevant steps is the establishment of initial and boundary
conditions because, as is usual in environmental models, the results are conditioned by
them. An in-depth understanding of the fluvial corridor and the riparian vegetation is
needed to establish the availability of wood and the ranges of its maximum and minimum
lengths, diameters and density. However, methodologies have been developed before on
the characterization of wood, its distribution along the river and potential availability, and
its recruitment processes (see : Abbe and Montgomery, 2003; Andreoli et al., 2007;
Mazzorana et al., 2009; Wohl and Jaeger, 2009; Wohl et al., 2011). But here the number of
input trees (logs) has to be estimated, and logs have to be characterized individually. This
has not been achieved before, and is the aim of a forthcoming paper (Ruiz-Villanueva et al.,
submitted).
Flume experiments have been used here to test and validate the correct performance
of the numerical model. Analyses of behaviour, log patterns, distance travelled or jam
formation are not included .
Different flume geometries (different velocity fields), discharges and boundary

condition tests were run to work with low (high flow velocity) and high levels (low flow
velocity). The theoretical predictions made in this study cannot be fully tested but the
records of the flume runs helped in this validation process resulting in reliable simulations.
The first challenge was to reproduce the hydrodynamics of the flume accurately,
because the geometries used produced an important two-dimensional flow with re-
circulation zones and a slight 3D component. Although the model was well-calibrated
deviations were observed. These deviations between the simulated hydrodynamics of the
channel and the numerical model validation results condition the reproduction of log
transport. There are several reasons for these differences between the observed and the
simulated. One is that the 3D effect cannot be reproduced by a two-dimensional model.
Another reason is that collecting data with Vectrino, attempted near the surface (since logs
mainly move with hydrodynamic surface conditions) meant the equipment had to be
submerged a few centimetres in the flow. The highest errors were observed in the flume
outlet where there is a sharp crested weir. The lower accuracy could be because of the
limitations of the 2D model when simulating a 3D flow such as the one that occurs near

the weir. However, good correlation was found for each geometry (correlation coefficient
>0.8).
4.2. Applying the model to real rivers
Iber is a well known two-dimensional model for simulating turbulent free surface
unsteady flow and environmental processes in river hydraulics. Since this model has been
extensively used to simulate both rivers or physical models (Corestein et al., 2010; Bladé et
al., 2012) the application of the new module (Woody Iber) in real rivers or streams seems
to be straightforward.
The flume experiments were not designed as a scale model of any real reach or
prototype. Nevertheless, if the experiments were to be extrapolated to a real stream using
Froude similarity, if λ is the geometric scale, the scales to be used for time, velocity and
discharge would be: λt=λ1/2, λv=λ1/2, λQ=λ1/2.
For example, where λ=20, the flume would be a physical model of a reach 12 m wide
and 100 m long , discharge would be around 32 m3 s-1, with maximum velocities around 3
m s-1, and logs ranging from 2 to 10 m length and from 0.2 to 0.36 m in diameter, which is
reliable.
Some trials have been run for different cases (Fig. 18 shows one example), the model
works, and the results are reasonably credible; however, it is very difficult to validate this
type of model in real cases.
In the simulation shown in Fig.18, log interactions, logs entrapped in the banks and
jam forming could be observed, as well as log transport in the flow. At present, there is no
detailed field data regarding LWD available to the authors to validate the method with
field data, but work towards this is underway in a study area where a well-known flood
event with LWD loading took place (Ruiz-Villanueva et al., 2012).

Fig. 18: LWD model transport simulation in Fluviá River (Catalonia). Water depth is
shown by colours and logs by brown lines.
Therefore, this can be used to improve computation performance and facilitate

debugging.
Nevertheless, in real rivers, the important process of sediment transport has also to be
taken into account. The important consequences of woody debris in fluvial corridors on
sediment transport and geomorphic effects has been studied before (Comiti et al., 2006
and 2007; Abbe and Montgomery, 2003; Wohl, 2011; Andreoli et al., 2007; Gomi et al.,
2004). One of the main effects of LWD on sediment dynamics is that wood may force the
formation of bars upstream of LW dams, and an impoundment may be formed where
deposition takes place and the bed slope is lower than the channel average. Wood also
influences channel width, narrowing some sections or causing localized erosion. In
addition, wood can force spatial variations in shear stress and stream power that alter bed
and bank topography (Buffington and Montgomery, 1999).
As described in the first part of this paper, Iber has a computational module to
simulate sediment transport. The sediment transport module solves the non-cohesive
sediment non-stationary transport equations including the bedload transport and the
suspended sediment transport. However, the influence of LWD presence on sediment

storage and transport has not been tested yet with the present model, and this important
issue will be investigated in the future.
Further research therefore remains to be done; however, this model as it is at present

allows wood transport to be incorporated directly into hydrodynamic simulation, taking
into account other processes, such as turbulence.
Flood modelling is one of the most common applications of depth-averaged shallow

water models. Therefore, this may be the main direct application of the work presented in
this paper. According to Mazzorana at al., (2011b) the transport of wood material is
neither sufficiently taken into account nor systematically considered, leading to prediction
inaccuracies during hazard mapping procedures. The authors hope that this model will
improve the analysis of floods with LWD by physically-based and deterministic
procedures, solving the process related uncertainties. The work presented here is intended
to be a first attempt at LWD modelling.
In terms of this process in relation to flood hazard analysis, the main problem is the
clogging of critical sections such as bridges (Mazzorana et al., 2011a). The simulation of
LWD transport at critical stream geometry configurations may therefore be an important
contribution. In terms of drift entrainment and transport, the effects of blockage due to
LWD accumulations at river bridges may be studied from a perspective of either flood
hazard (backwater effects; see Mazzorana et al., 2011c) or infrastructure evaluation
(failure, pier scour, or sizing; see Schmocker and Hager, 2010).
This model may also be useful in other analytical approaches. The ecological
importance of LWD is reflected in zones with decreased flow velocity and increased flow
depth, where habitat suitability for fish species colonization is enhanced (Bocchiola, 2011),
so log deposition areas could be an ecological indicator. LWD has also become a central
theme in river management and restoration (Benda and Sias, 2003).
Furthermore, as mentioned above, this numerical model approach may be

implemented in any two dimensional hydrodynamic model provided it uses an explicit
scheme with a small time step. At present there is a wide range of commercial and non-

commercial modelling tools available based on finite volume or finite element methods
that satisfy this requirement.
5. Conclusions
A numerical model has been developed to simulate the hydrodynamics and other
fluvial processes (turbulence) with wood transport. This tool has been implemented as a
new computational module into the Iber two-dimensional hydraulic simulation software.
The new module calculates the position and velocity of logs with different shapes using
kinematic and dynamic approaches, both based on the balance of forces involved in wood
movement. These approaches account for the interactions between the logs themselves and
between the logs and the channel configuration. Prototype-scale flume experiments
validated the model’s capacity to reproduce accurately floating log movement in a straight
channel with constraints.
This model as it is at present is a first attempt to incorporate wood transport into the
two-dimensional hydrodynamic simulation of rivers.
Acknowledgements
This work was funded by CICYT MAS Dendro-Avenidas project and the Geological Survey of
Spain (IGME). The lead author acknowledges the grant obtained from the Spanish Ministry of Science and
Innovation, for a 3-month research period at the Flumen Research Institute at University of Catalunya
(UPC). The authors are grateful to Georgina Corestein and Hans Sánchez for their help with
programming, to Soledad Estrella for her help with the laboratory experiments, to Ceferino Robledo who
was responsible for recording the flume experiments and to Joaquim Rabada for his help with IT.

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streams. Earth, 329-344.


4.6. MODELLING OF LARGE WOOD

TRANSPORT AT CRITICAL STREAM
GEOMETRY CONFIGURATIONS
(4.6). 2. Study area
3.1. Modelling large wood transport in rivers
3.2. Wood and critical stream configurations:
internal conditions
3.3. Inlet boundary conditions, scenarios and
validation
(4.6). 4. Simulation results and validation
REFERENCE:
Ruiz-Villanueva, V.; Bladé, E.; Díez-Herrero, A.; Bodoque, J.M.; Sánchez-Juni, M. 2D-
hydrodynamic modelling of large wood transport at critical stream geometry
configurations.
Submitted to Earth Surface Processes and Landforms.


ABSTRACT
Large woody material (LW) transported in the flow may be entrapped at critical
stream geometry configurations (e.g. at bridges), and therefore may dramatically increase
the destructive power of floods. This was the case in a mountain catchment where a flood
event with LW loading took place in 1997, and relevant data was available. The aim of this
study was to simulate a bridge clogging process, modelling individual pieces of wood
moving with the water flow and interacting with the bridge. First, the boundary conditions
(inlet discharge and wood) were established, and then a 2D model was developed to
simulate the transport of LW together with the hydrodynamics. A combination of weir
and gate internal conditions was used to represent the bridge geometry, and the model
simulated the way in which the wood’s interactions with it affect the hydrodynamics.
Different scenarios for the wood budget allowed us to study the influence of inlet
boundary conditions in bridge clogging. For the studied event, the scenario which best
reproduced the bridge clogging effect and the flood characteristics was the one in which
60% of total wood entered before the peak discharge. This dropped to 30% at the peak
itself, and finally fell to 10% during the recession curve. In addition, the accumulation
patterns of LW along the reach were compared with photographs, showing that the model
succeeded in predicting the deposition patterns of wood.
Keywords: large woody debris, Iber, wood transport, clogging


1. Introduction
The role of large wood (LW) in rivers has been widely studied. An extensive
literature now exists describing the influence of wood on stream ecology (Gurnell et al.,
2002; Martin ad Benda, 2001; Gippel and White, 2000), since wood provides a habitat for
fishes and riverine species (Jackson and Sturm, 2002) and regulates water flows and
nutrient fluxes (Welty et al., 2002). In addition, it has been demonstrated that LW plays a
key role in the geomorphology of rivers with many implications in erosion and
sedimentation processes, channel morphology, hydraulics, etc. (Montgomery et al., 2003).
Recent research has focused on the mobilization of woody material during floods,
since transported woody material that is entrapped at critical stream geometry
configurations (e.g. at bridges) results in a substantial increase in the destructive power of
floods (Shields and Gippel, 1995; Darby and Thorne, 1995; Dudley et al., 1998; Shields et
al., 2001; Diehl, 1997; Braudrick et al., 1997).
Indeed, woody material accumulation at bridges is a widespread problem. For

instance, it has played a part in more than one-third of bridge failures in the United States
and has been the primary cause in a number of failures (Chang, 1973; Chang and Shen
1979, Diehl 1997, Parola et al. 2000). LW may reduce the capacity of bridge openings, may
contribute to scour, and may increase lateral forces on bridges. The main results of these
are a quick succession of backwater effects with bed aggradation, flow diversions and local
scouring processes, ultimately evolving towards embankment/bridge collapse and
floodplain inundations. As a result, flooded areas may be different from those predicted in
the absence of wood (Ruiz-Villanueva et al., 2012).
In forested mountain catchments, most trees fall into the stream as a result of a
variety of mechanisms such as mass wasting, channel migration and bank undercutting
(May and Gresswell, 2003; Swanson, 2003), stochastic mechanisms such as windthrow and
fire (Benda and Sias, 2003; Rosso et al., 2007) or simple tree mortality (Benda et al., 2003).
Since these geomorphological process sequences often occur during major floods
(Nakamura et al., 2000), when the number of wood pieces likely to be transported
increases, the recruitment and dynamics of woody material have been studied from the
perspective of its potential responsibility in increasing flood hazard impacts (see examples
in Comiti et al., 2008; Mao and Comiti 2010; Rickenmann and Koschni, 2010;
Mazzorana et al., 2010; Ruiz-Villanueva et al., 2012). But this also makes field
measurements difficult. As a result, there are few direct observations and/or measurements
of conditions of wood entrainment and transport (see one pioneer study in MacVicar and
Piegay, 2012). Physical models and flume experiments have been used to overcome these

constraints, and this has contributed greatly to our present knowledge of LW transport
(Braudrick and Grant, 2000; Braudrick et al., 2001; Haga, 2002; Bocchiola et al., 2002,
Buxton, 2010; Wohl et al, 2011).
Since the seventies, several published studies have described instances in which LW
contributed to bridge failure or damage in the U.S., New Zealand and Canada (Brice et al.,
1978a and 1978b; Harik et al., 1990; Dongol, 1989; Lyn et al., 2007). Flood damage
caused by LW, although not specifically bridge damage, is also described in Europe
(Comiti et al., 2006; Comiti et al. 2008a and 2008b; Mao and Comiti 2010). However,
despite the effects that LW may have on floods, it has very often been overlooked and just a
few studies propose methods to incorporate this process in flood hazard or risk analysis
(Merten et al., 2010; Mazzorana et al., 2010a and 2010b, Mazzorana et al., 2011; Ruiz-
Villanueva et al., 2012). Moreover, in those cases when a bridge is included in the research,
the approach has been the modification of the bridge geometry in order to simulate the
effect of the clogged wood (see Mazzorana et al., 2011). However, there has been no
general model for wood movement in streams so far. A numerical model was developed by
Ruiz-Villanueva et al. (under review) to simulate the hydrodynamics of rivers, including
turbulence, together with woody debris transport. It was added as a new module (Woody
Iber) to Iber, a two-dimensional hydrodynamic software application (www.iberaula.es)
based on the finite volume method (Corestein et al., 2010; Bladé et al., 2012). This model
succeeded in introducing woody debris transport into the 2D hydrodynamic simulation of
rivers.
The main aim of this study was to test the proper operation of the application and its
ability to provide a suitable model for a critical stream configuration, such as a bridge.
Therefore, the purpose is to simulate a bridge clogging process caused by LW transport by
modelling individual wood pieces in the simulation. The interaction between logs and
bridge is then simulated and the effect on the hydrodynamics is analysed.
The area selected for the study is a well-known mountain catchment where a flood
event with LW loading took place in 1997 (see details in Bodoque et al., 2011 and Ruiz-
Villanueva et al., 2012) and where the necessary data is available. Since the event evolved
from landslide to flash flood, the LW delivery was episodic (Wohl et al., 2011) and the
transport was congested (Braudrick et al., 1997).
First, the boundary conditions need to be estimated in terms of wood volume

(number of trees, and tree characteristics: height and diameter), and flow discharge.
Modelling results are then validated with field observations and previous studies.
Moreover, the hydrodynamic effects of LW and the accumulation patterns are analysed.

2. Study area
The study site is a reach of the Arroyo Cabrera stream, a tributary of the Alberche
River in the Tagus River Basin, on the northern slopes of the Sierra de Gredos, in the
Spanish Central System (Figure 1). This small ungauged forested mountain catchment
covers an area of over 15.5 km2, the maximum difference in height within the watershed is
1188 m, and the main channel is 5500 m long, with an average slope of 21.6%. The geology
consists mainly of Upper Palaeozoic granitoid covered by superficial Quaternary
formations of conglomerates, gravels, sands and silts.
The local forest stand is formed predominantly by Pinus pinaster Ait., Pinus
sylvestris L. and Q. pyrenaica Willd. In addition, riparian broadleaved species A. glutinosa
(L.) and F. angustifolia (Vhal.) can be found on both river banks.
The continental Mediterranean climate of the study area is typical of Spanish

medium mountain ranges. The mean annual temperature is 14.6 °C with 554 mm mean
annual rainfall in the lower part and up to 2000 mm on the higher land (Palacios et al.,
2011).
Torrential rainfall events usually occur in autumn and winter, resulting in abundant
surface runoff, sediment mobilization and related flash-flood events. The most important
event identified to date was a 1997 flash flood. The chronological description of the 1997
process can be summed up as follows: a complex sediment-laden flow was triggered by a
shallow landslide (Ruiz-Villanueva et al., 2011); this evolved into a hyper-concentrated
flow (Bodoque et al., 2011). 3.2 km downslope most of the sediment transport was
partially deposited and an avulsion took place (Díez-Herrero, 2003). This process led to a
major change in the drainage network pattern, and remobilized large quantities of
sediment, damaging the vegetation located within the stream and on the banks and
resulting in a substantial wood recruitment process.
Upstream from the point where it flows into the Alberche River there is a critical
section in the outlet of the catchment; here there is a bridge which is the biggest obstacle in
the stream and where large deposits of wood and boulders were observed after the 1997
event (Figure 1). The evidence from observations, images and other indicators (e.g. fine
sand and coarse wood deposits found on the bridge deck) show that the bridge was flooded
due to the clogged wood. Indirect methods together with hydraulic simulation and
rainfall-runoff modelling have been applied to obtain the main flash flood parameters.
Thus, peak discharge (123 ± 18 m3 s-1), simulated hydrograph, water level (~7 m at the

bridge section) and blockage ratio (48 ± 8% of the bridge section) were estimated for this
event in a previous study (for details see Ruiz-Villanueva et al., 2012).
Figure 1: Location of the study area: Arroyo Cabrera stream basin with vegetation density
and species, and location and picture of the bridge affected by wood clogging.
3. Methodology
The methodology applied in this study is divided into 3 main stages (Figure 2): (1)
estimation of the potentially recruitable large wood at basin scale (analysing the
recruitment areas caused by an avulsion phenomenon, fluvial transport and bank erosion)
that enables us to set inlet boundary conditions for large wood (Qw); (2) setting initial and
boundary hydrodynamic conditions (Qi); (3) the flood event with large wood transport
modelling and analysis.

Figure 2: Proposed methodology scheme for the study and simulation of a flood event with
large wood transport. Qi and Qw are the inlet flow discharge and inlet wood budget
respectively.
The sections below describe these stages as follows: (i) first, a brief description of the
model developed for simulating the wood transport in rivers is provided; (ii) a detailed
description of the methods for simulating the interaction between wood and critical
sections such as bridges (weirs and gates) is given; (iii) the inlet boundary conditions
(discharge and wood budget) for the studied flood event are estimated.
3.1. Modelling large wood transport in rivers
The transport of wood in the stream has been simulated using a two-dimensional
hydrodynamic model recently developed for this purpose. The model is described in detail
in Ruiz-Villanueva et al. (under review) and therefore only a brief description is provided
here.
To deal with hydrodynamics and turbulence, the finite volume method with a
second order Roe Scheme is used. This method is especially suitable for flows in mountain
(torrential) rivers, where shocks and discontinuities can occur and flow hydrographs are
very sharp. The method is conservative, even when wetting and drying processes take place.
Wood entrainment and incipient motion is considered in relation to a force balance

acting on the wood: the gravitational force acting on the log, equal to the effective weight
of the log in a downstream direction; the friction force in the opposite flow direction,

which is equal to the normal force acting on the log times the coefficient of friction
between the wood and the bed; and the drag force, also acting in the flow direction, which
is the downstream drag exerted on the log by the water in motion.
The movement of wood logs includes three possible transport regimes (floating,
rolling or sliding) and both translation and rotation, due to the fact that one end of the
piece of wood is moving faster than the other end (based on flow velocity field) and causes
the piece to rotate towards a more flow-parallel orientation.
Interactions between logs and the channel configuration and among logs themselves
are also taken into account in the model. Therefore, log velocity and trajectory may change
due to contact with the banks or with other logs. If one piece of wood is floating in the
flow and meets another piece (floating or resting) then the two may collide and continue
moving with a different velocity. Moreover, when a piece of wood reaches the bank, it can
be entrapped and the driving forces decrease due to the reduction of the submerged area,
but the resisting forces are still active around the log and therefore the initial motion
condition is re-calculated.
A significant contribution of this model is that hydrodynamics and wood transport

are computed in two related ways; therefore, the hydrodynamics influence the wood
transport, but the presence of wood influences the hydrodynamics as well. This is solved
with an additional drag factor, which is not present in the 2D-Saint Venant equations for
clean water. The drag force is included in the flow model as an additional term similar to
roughness, through additional shear stress at every finite volume produced by the drag
force of the logs in it.
3.2. Wood and critical stream configurations: internal conditions
Hydraulic structures like gates, weirs or bridges, which change the conditions of the
system and, thus, cannot be represented by the Saint Venant equations are usually treated
as internal conditions. The internal conditions available in the Iber model (similar to most
2D hydraulic models) are: (i) flow below a gate; (ii) flow over a weir; (iii) the weir-gate
combination; and (iv) local loss determined by a loss coefficient. In the case of gates, the
standard equation of the flow under a gate, which can be free or submerged, is used. The
data to enter are the discharge coefficient, the gate’s bottom level, the gate opening height
and its width. To simulate weirs, the rectangular weir discharge equation is used, which can

also represent free flow and submerged flow. The data to input are the weir’s crest
elevation, the discharge coefficient and the weir’s length. In this study the condition used
to represent the bridge is a combination of the two previous ones, those for gates and weirs,
so all the above-mentioned parameters must be used. The total discharged flow is taken as
the sum below the gate and the flow above the weir.
If a piece of wood transported in the flow interacts with a gate or weir then the log
may go below the gate or over the weir, depending on the gate aperture and width, or the
weir length, the water level and the wood diameter (Figure 4). If the water level (h1) and
wood diameter are higher than the height of the gate (Zg) or lower than the height of the
weir (Zw), then the wood log will collide with the obstacle, in our case with the deck of the
bridge. In this case, from the point of view of wood transport the obstacle is treated as a
material wall, and logs interacting with it will bounce back and get stuck. The drag force on
trapped logs represents an opposite action to water flow, producing a rise in water levels
and a decrease in velocity.
Figure 4: Scheme of the gate and weir internal contour conditions and wood.

3.3. Inlet boundary conditions, scenarios and validation
The inlet discharge (a peak discharge of approximately 120 m3 s-1) required for the
hydraulic model was a reconstructed event hydrograph using uncertainty intervals
obtained by hydrological simulation in a previous study (Ruiz-Villanueva et al., 2012).
Moreover, the wood boundary conditions were assigned to the whole domain. Based
on the knowledge of the fluvial corridor, the riparian vegetation, and the wood availability,
ranges were established for the diameters, density and lengths of wood. The stochastic
variation of these parameters, together with position and angle with respect to the flow,
were then used to characterize each piece of wood entering the simulation.
Post event surveys and previous studies allowed us to reconstruct the area affected by
the flood and the avulsion where most of the trees were recruited. Then, using the available
information on the forest stand (The Forest Map of Spain and National Forest Inventory
produced by the Ministry of the Environment, Spain; MFE, 2011), it was possible to
estimate recruited wood volumes (number of trees; WVr) following the methodology
proposed by Ruiz-Villanueva et al. (in press). This method allows us to establish the
boundaries for the recruitment source areas and estimate the wood volume potentially
delivered in this event. The model uses up to three different species of forest trees, each
with their development stage, percentage occupation (percentage of the total forest
occupied by this species), canopy cover for total trees (percentage of ground covered by the
horizontal projection of the canopy), and DBH (diameter at breast height), among others.
The National Forest Map and Inventory provide the required data but some
simplification has to be assumed. Data is provided for the three main species in any given
area and the total canopy cover (Ci) as a percentage of the total area covered by forest. The
inventory for the province of Ávila contains estimates of tree density (expressed as number
of trees per area) for each species for the whole forested territory. This latter density is
called here relative density per species (RDSPi) and is used together with species
occupation and canopy cover to estimate final volumes in a given area. Ai is the
contributing area defined for a specific recruitment process and with an established
probability of occurrence or severity:
PRWSPi=Ai•Ci•RDSPi [1]
To take into account the defined vegetation resistance and the severity of the
potential recruitment mechanism, a volume correction factor (Fc) was defined. This is
equivalent to a recruitment probability and can be 1, 0.5 or 0.1. This factor therefore

reduces the total volume of potential recruitable wood in those areas where susceptibility
to the process is lowest and/or vegetation resistance is highest.
PRWti= PRWSPi•Fc [2]
Once we have the number of trees we can estimate the number of logs (pieces of
woody debris) as:
Number of potential inlet Logs= k. WVr
where k is a coefficient.
For example according to Benda and Sias (2003), a 40 m-tall tree is equivalent to 5
pieces of 8 m-long woody debris, so in this case k=5.
According to field observations and photographs, most of the trees were transported
short distances, resulting in few broken trees. However, due to the uncertainty of this rule
we estimated the number of trees (k=1).
A series of scenarios were then simulated assuming that the peak in wood transport
occurred prior to the peak discharge and varying the amount and temporal distribution of
the wood budget. The scenarios (Figure 3) were established based on previous knowledge
of the event studied and the observations made by MacVicar and Piegay (2012). These
authors recorded the transport of wood during floods in a river and they observed that the
peak in wood occurs prior to the peak discharge and that the transport rates are
approximately four times higher on the rising limb of the hydrograph than on the falling
limb. Therefore, the proposed scenarios are:
 Scenario 1: 100% of total recruited wood enters just before and during the
peak discharge and wood transport occurs from the rising limb and during
the peak (~ 1 h).
 Scenario 2: 60% enters before the peak discharge (~ 0.5 h), during the peak
this amount is reduced to 30% (~ 0.5 h), and finally during the recession
curve 10% of the total recruited wood is transported (~ 0.5 h).
 Scenario 3: the total of recruited trees enter continuously during the whole
event until the middle of the recession curve (~ 3 h).

CAPÍTULO /CHAPTER
C 4
FFigure 3: Reeconstructedd event hyddrograph (siimulated) and

an uncertai
ainty intervaals and
the estaablished sceenarios for the
t wood budget.
bu
Siince there was

w no info
ormation avvailable for establishing initial connditions off wood
no woody debris was
w placed in
n the reach in the initiaal time interval.
A semi-quanntitative valiidation wass based on available

a infformation aand previous work
(see Ruuiz-Villanueeva et al., 2012
2 mely: water level estim
for deetails), nam mates in diffferent
reaches by the higgh water maarks (HWM M) and palaeostage in ndicators (PPSI) surveyeed, the
water ddepth in thhe bridge seection due to wood clogging,
c he estimatiion of the bridge
th
section obstructionn percentagge and the photograph hs taken thhe day after the event, which
allowedd us to analyyse wood deposit
d pattterns. In addition, the effect of w
wood transpport on
hydrodyynamics is analysed in n terms of water level, flood exttension, floow velocity,, shear
stress an
nd Froude number.
n
TThe simulatiion withoutt wood wass calibrated using the rating

r curvee obtained for
f the
draulic mo delling and
bridge cross-sectioon by hyd d with the recordedd data and d field
measureements.
A 312 TESIS DOCTO
4. Simulation results and validation
After analysing the contributing areas defined for this event, the vegetation resistance
and the forest density (3 main species, canopy cover and relative density) theoretical
predictions were obtained of the number of trees potentially recruited (WVr) for the reach
studied.
These estimates and the logs’ characteristics are summarized in Table 1:
Table 1: Characteristics of the estimated wood budget

Mean Maximum Minimum
WVr (nº logs) 186 232 140
Length (m) 7 15 2
Diameter (m) 1 1.5 0.5
Wood density (kg m-3) 700 800 500
The simulated wood budget for the three scenarios was 213, 180 and 137 logs
respectively. According to the pictures taken some days after the event, the model’s results
satisfactorily reproduce the wood deposit location and the bridge clogging for the three
scenarios (Figure 4).

314
Figure 4: Simulation result for scenario 2 and validation using post-event photographs.

The main deposit areas or the areas prone to form wood jams are the two bridge
abutments (top right picture in fig.4), and along the left bank of the stream,
particularly the areas shown in the pictures at top and bottom left and bottom right in
fig.4. There is also the left bank downstream of the bridge, although this reach is
outside the scope of this study.
In addition, figures 5, 6 and 7 show the main characteristics (maximum water

depth, maximum flow velocity and maximum transport capacity for the simulated
hydrograph) of the flood for the 4 scenarios, (without wood and the three scenarios
with wood). According to the previous data available for this event, scenario 2 best
reproduces the bridge clogging and the backwater elevation, based on hwm and psi.
Figure 5: Maximum water depth for the simulated hydrograph without wood, and for the
three scenarios (SC1, SC2, and SC3). The black line represents the bridge, and the
grey polygon the small white building with the high water mark (see fig.4).
The maximum water depth for the simulated hydrograph without wood is around
4.7 metres in the bridge section; this value is in the same range as that obtained in the

previous study, which was around 4.5 m. Whereas the backwater effect due to bridge
clogging increases this level to 7.1 m according to previous work, 7.3 m was the result
obtained from scenario 2 of this reconstruction. In scenario 1 this level could increase to
more than 8 metres (1 metre above the bridge deck). Scenario 3 is an intermediate case,
where the bridge is less blocked and the water level does not reach the bridge deck, rising to
6.8 metres.
The other HWM used for the reconstruction was located in a small building placed
on the right bank. This mark was 2.9 metres; once again, scenario 2 gives the best
approximation with a value of 2.8 metres.
Figure 6: Maximum flow velocity for the simulated hydrograph without wood, and for the
The main velocity estimated for this event was around 3.5 m s-1 to 4 m s-1. Although
these values are exceeded locally, the main flow velocity agrees with these previous
estimates. In addition, as the bridge is increasingly obstructed, it can be observed how the
flow velocity decreases upstream.

The main effect of bridge clogging due to wood transport on flow transport capacity
is the increase of this parameter on the right bank, whereas it decreases on the left bank.
This agrees with the deposition patterns observed in the post event pictures. The left side is
where most of the wood is deposited (see left hand pictures in Fig.4), but on the right side
bigger boulders are observed as well as erosive marks (see pictures on right in Fig.4).
Figure 7: Maximum transport capacity for the simulated hydrograph without wood, and
for the three scenarios (SC1, SC2, and SC3). The black line represents the bridge, and the
5. Discussion
A bridge clogging process due to LW transport during a flash flood event was
reproduced by modelling individual wood pieces moving in the flow, using a two-
dimensional hydrodynamic model. This study represents the first attempt to simulate the

interaction between individual wooden logs and obstacles together with the
hydrodynamics in rivers.
The main simplification assumed by the model was the shape of the logs as cylinders,
disregarding the effect of branches or roots. This geometry provides a good approximation
for broadleaved trees, which has been used by several researchers (see Bocchiola et al., 2008;
Braudrick et al., 1997; Buxton, 2010; Mazzorana et al., 2011), and may provide a good
picture of non-rooted and defoliated logs often occurring in rivers as a result of fluvial
transport, wood harvesting and forest fires (Bocchiola, 2011). Although, according to the
findings of Schmocker and Hager (2010), the probability of blocking may increase with
the presence of roots, in the case of conifers, for example, in their experiments the bridge
geometry used was a truss bridge deck, which differs from the one simulated in this study.
The same authors have pointed out that, once a piece of wood is entrapped in the obstacle,
the likelihood of blocking increases; this is taken into account in our model, since log
interactions are included.
In the estimation of the wood volumes recruited (WVr), we first delineated the area
affected by the flood and avulsion process, based on previous work and field observations.
This is an important issue, and could be a source of uncertainty if this area is unknown, or
we are simulating future or design scenarios and not past events. The forest vegetation
present in the affected area was then analysed. The main recruitment processes were fluvial
transport and bank erosion. The probability of a tree being recruited was quantified based
on the work done by Ruiz-Villanueva et al. (2012) and using the volume correction factor.
This factor reduces the total volume of potential recruitable wood in those areas where
vegetation resistance is highest. Vegetation resistance was established based on the tree
species and stage of the forest, and on previous studies by Hutte (1968), Stumbles (1968),
Naka (1982) and Abernethy and Rutherford (2001). This concept may be equivalent to
the structural classification of forested areas made by Blaschke et al. (2004) and the woody
debris availability indicator used by Mazzorana et al. (2011). The volume correction factor
can be a source of subjectivity, and the modification of this coefficient could change the
final results. To limit this effect a 25% error margin was assumed and a range of maximum
and minimum WVr was provided.
The establishment of different scenarios for the wood budget allowed us to study the
influence of the inlet boundary conditions in the wood clogging of bridges. These scenarios
were established based on previous knowledge of the area and the event studied, and on the
findings provided by MacVicar and Piegay (2012). As expected, steady transport is
associated with a lower probability of blocking, whereas congested and episodic transport
resulted in the highest blocking rate. Our results agree with the observations made by these
authors: the wood budget of scenario 2, which best reproduces the 1997 event, was

distributed along the hydrograph (60, 30 and 10%) starting just before the peak of the
hydrograph.
On the other hand, sediment transport took place, as can be observed in the pictures,
and this should be taken into account, because it may also influence the bridge clogging
process and demonstrates the variation in transport capacity. However, this study focused
on the reconstruction and simulation of wood transport, so further analysis should be
carried out to better incorporate both wood and sediment transport processes.
The simulation results showed that the model successfully reproduces the areas
where the wood will be deposited and will form jams. This could be of interest not only for
flood hazard evaluation, but also for fluvial dynamics, fluvial restoration or ecological
analysis. The proposed methodology can thus also be used for river and forest restoration
and management (Hilderbrand et al., 1998). Knowing the spatial patterns of LWD
recruitment can provide a watershed context for understanding the geomorphic and
ecological processes associated with LW (Martin and Benda, 2001). Knowledge of the
wood deposit areas may help technicians to design more effective countermeasures, such as
filter dams and/or nets, to prevent the transport of wood downstream to critical channel
cross-sections, while allowing the growth of ecologically important riparian buffers
(Comiti et al., 2006). Since pools and other geomorphic elements are closely associated
with LW dams (Gurnell and Sweet, 1998; Montgomery and Buffington, 2003), the
reconstruction of the wood deposition areas could be used to predict potential changes in
geomorphic patterns. Furthermore, the ecological importance of wood has been
demonstrated (Gurnell et al., 2002), and this model could also be applied in ecological
studies, since LW deposits provide a nursery habitat, protection, and are a source of
nutrients for various organisms (Triska and Cromack, 1980; Harmon et al., 1986; Sedell et
al., 1988).

6. Conclusions
This work presents the reconstruction of a bridge clogging process due to wood
transport during a flash flood. This obstruction increased the water level and the flooded
area upstream of the bridge and, therefore, magnified the flood impacts. The
reconstruction was carried out by modelling the interaction between individual woody logs
and obstacles, together with the hydrodynamics. Previous available data were used to
determine the flood parameters and validate the model’s results. The influence of the wood
budget and the wood transport regimes were also investigated by means of scenarios.
Results showed how this model succeeded in reproducing the flash flood event and the
bridge obstruction due to wood transport, as well as the areas prone to wood deposition.
Therefore, this model represents a powerful tool for flood hazard analysis but could
also be useful in forest restoration and the management of geomorphic and ecological
processes associated with LW.
Acknowledgments
This work was funded by CICYT MAS Dendro-Avenidas project (CGL 2010-19274) and the
Geological Survey of Spain (IGME). Special mention to Ignacio Gutiérrez for his assistant with the
topographical survey.

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4.7. INFLUENCE OF LARGE WOOD
TRANSPORT IN FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT
(4.7). 2. Study area
3.1. Extreme value statistics: flood frequency analysis
3.2. 2D- hydrodynamic modelling
3.3. Wood transport recruitment and 2D
hydrodynamic simulation
3.4. Potential flood damage and risk to population
(4.7). 4. Results
4.1. Expected 500-year flood event
4.2. Potential damages with and without wood
transport scenarios
REFERENCE:
Ruiz-Villanueva, V., Bodoque, J.M., Díez-Herrero, A., Bladé, E. 2012. Influence of large
wood transport in flood risk assessment in a mountain village (central Spain).
Submitted to Natural Hazards.


ABSTRACT
An important issue that is not considered in most flood risk assessments is the
transport of solids associated with the flood flow, in this case, wood transport. The
transport and deposition of this wood may be a worse hazard than the flood flow itself. To
analyze this effect, scenario-based 2D hydrodynamic flood modelling was carried out. Since
flood risk assessment has considerable intrinsic uncertainty, probabilistic thinking was
complemented by possibilistic thinking, considering worst-case scenarios. The Bayesian
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure was applied to account for uncertainties
in the estimated discharge, and to provide confidence bounds for the quantiles obtained.
The water depth in the test reach was analyzed under uncertainty of the topographical
accuracy and the input Manning roughness coefficient values. This procedure obtained a
probabilistic flood map for a 500-year return period. Then, a series of scenarios was built
based on the wood budget to simulate wood transport and deposition. The potential
damage was estimated as well as a preliminary social vulnerability for all scenarios (with
and without wood transport). The results show that the transport and deposition of wood
during flooding increases potential damage by up to 50% and increases the number of
potentially exposed people by up to 35%. In this paper this phenomenon has been
successfully modelled and included in flood risk assessment.
Keywords: Flood risk, wood transport, natural hazard, uncertainty analysis.


1. Introduction
The mobilization of woody material in rivers has been considered in the past, but
very few studies have included this phenomenon in flood hazard and risk analysis (see
Mazzorana et al. 2011a, b, c and their references cited). The transport and deposit of wood
can cause a quick succession of backwater effects due to the reduction of cross-sectional
area, accompanied by bed aggradation, channel avulsion and local scouring processes,
which can ultimately lead to embankment/bridge collapse and floodplain inundation
(Diehl, 1997; Comiti et al., 2007; Lynn et al., 2007; Mao and Comiti, 2010). As a result,
flooded areas are likely to be different from those predicted from models where the
presence of wood is not considered (see an example in Ruiz-Villanueva et al., 2012a) and
therefore this may result in the incorrect/uncertain estimation of flood risk.
A wide range of factors can lead to uncertainty in flood risk estimation, but all of
them can be divided into two main types (Tung and Yen, 1993; Paté-Cornell, 1996): (A)
Natural variability (random uncertainty): refers to uncertainties associated with the
inherent randomness of natural processes; (B) Knowledge uncertainty (epistemic
uncertainty): results from incomplete knowledge of the system under consideration and is
related to the ability to understand, measure and describe the system (model, parameter
and data uncertainties).
Knowledge or epistemic uncertainty can be reduced by acquiring more knowledge,

while natural variability is inherent in the system and cannot be reduced by more detailed
information. However, it is possible to include it in flood risk analysis (Apel et al., 2004).
According to the literature, flood maps can be produced using either deterministic or
probabilistic approaches (Bates et al., 2004; Merz et al., 2007; Di Baldassarre et al., 2010).
Deterministic approaches do not normally take the uncertainties into account (Bates et al.,
2004). In addition, hydrological and other data are often far from complete, their
reliability is usually not perfect, and they can be analyzed in different ways, resulting in
slightly or very different outcomes (Faulkner et al., 2007). This may therefore lead to
incorrect hazard assessment. Thus, considering flood hazard as a probability (Romanowicz
and Beven, 2003; Bates et al., 2004; Pappenberger et al., 2006), the analysis generally
consists of drawing flood risk maps, a sensitivity analysis of the applied model
(Oberguggenberger, 2005), and/or use of multiple behavioural (acceptable) models to
carry out ensemble simulation using an uncertain synthetic design event as a hydrological
input (Di Baldassarre et al., 2010). Analysis of different scenarios (Mazzorana et al., 2011),
and the what if method (Yeo, 1998) may also be used to estimate the variables, factors and
parameters considering the most likely values. In interval analysis, which handles a whole
range of values of a variable, the uncertainty of a parameter is described defining bounds in

terms of worst- and best-case assumptions. In this case, although the total variability of the
parameters can be captured, no detailed information on uncertainty is provided. When
input parameters are treated as random variables with known probability distributions
(Apel et al., 2004), the uncertainty is described in the most informative, but also the
strictest way. But if no prior information regarding the parameter probability distribution
is available, an alternative approach could be used instead, based on the imprecise
probability (i.e. fuzzy set approach), in which some probability theory axioms are relaxed
(Fellin et al., 2005).
The aim of this article, therefore, is to analyze how the transport and deposition of
wood influences flood risk estimation in a mountain village. But to take the uncertainties
mentioned above and to obtain the optimal (most likely) flood risk estimate, this
uncertainty was considered at all points in the flood risk analysis.
2. Study area
The study area is located in the eastern massif of the Sierra de Gredos (in the south of
Avila province), the highest section (Almanzor Peak, 2592 m a.s.l.) of the Spanish Central
System, which crosses the Iberian Peninsula SW - NE (Fig.1). These mountains are the
natural division between the river basins of the Tajo (Tagus) to the S. and Duero to the N.
The sector of Sierra de Gredos studied here is on the southern slopes, in the basin of the
Tiétar, a tributary of the Tajo. We studied a reach of the Arenal, a tributary of the Tiétar.
The Arenal flows through the town of Arenas de San Pedro (~6900 inhabitants).
The drainage area at Arenas de San Pedro is 67 km2 and the total length is 12.5 km. The
study reach is 1.2 km long (see Table 1), and the river flows in nearly natural conditions
(since there are no dams upstream), although part of the reach is channelled.

Table 1: Main morphometric characteristics of the Arenal river basin and the study reach.
Arenal river at Arenas de San Pedro

Drainage area (km2) 67
River lenght (km) 12.5
Maximum basin altitude (m a.s.l.) 2200
Minimum basin altitude (m a.s.l.) 400
-1
Average stream slope (m∙ m ) 0.14
Time concentration (h) 2.95
Studied reach length (km) 1.2
Studied reach maximum altitude (m a.s.l.) 545
Studied reach minimum altitude (m a.s.l.) 489
-1
Studied reach average stream slope (m∙ m ) 0.046
The geology of this region is mainly composed of granites (Upper Palaeozoic

granitoids) covered by a sandy weathering mantle; the Arenal river bed consists mainly of
gravel, with some bedrock outcrops.
There is abundant forested mass in the area, and different species are found
depending on altitude. At higher altitudes, where the extreme climatic characteristics
impede the development of tree or shrub species, grassland cover is found (mainly Festuca
sp., Carex sp.). At lower levels, there is a characteristic presence of shrubs (Cytisus sp.) and
stretches of high mountain conifers such as Pinus sylvestris. This species is replaced at
lower altitudes by Pinus pinaster which usually appears with Genista florida, Ilex
aquolifolium, Erica arborea and Sorbus aucuparia. Further down, the forest is composed
mainly of deciduous trees such as Quercus pyrenaica and Quercus ilex. The riparian
vegetation is predominantly Alnus glutinosa and Fraxinus angustifolia. Tree clearance has
been carried out in the past in the study area and is still ongoing.
The climate of the study area is determined by the frequent arrival of Atlantic
depressions from the SW during autumn, winter and spring and by the predominant
Azores anticyclone causing very dry summers (only 10% of annual precipitation). The
yearly precipitation recorded in the area is around 2000 mm (1913 mm at 800 m a.s.l.).

Figure 1: Location of the study site. There are four bridges along the studied reach, and the
Cuevas tributary stream joins the Arenal in mid reach.
Flash floods are common in the Arenal catchment area (Fig. 2) boosted by heavy
rains and the high stream gradient (>0.02 m·m-1), which lead to extremely high discharge
and wood transport rates.

Figure 2: (left) Flash flood in 1999; (right) Post-flood in 2009. Note deposited wood.

CAPÍTULO /CHAPTER
C 4
3. Meethodo
ology
T
The general methodolo ogical approoach was designed
d to analyze thhe flood rissk in a
mountaain village incorporati
i ing wood ttransport in nto the anaalysis. As m
mentioned in the
introduuction, the risk analyysis is accoompanied by b several sources off uncertaintty. To
consideer these unccertainties in
i the analylysis the meethodology was divideed into four steps
(Fig.3):
 Step 1: For the flood freqquency anallysis (FFA), a Bayesiann Markov Chain
Montte Carlo (MMCMC) proocedure (R Reis and Steddinger, 20005) was used d. This
approoach can account for uuncertaintiees in hydrologic extrem mes as it prrovides
estim Gaal et al., 2010).
mates of conffidence bouunds for thee estimated quantiles (G 2
 Step 2: The water
w depthh was analyyzed underr uncertainnty of the input
Mannning roughn ness coefficiient values and the acccuracy of thhe digital eleevation
modeel used for 2D
2 hydrodyynamic simu ulation.
 Step 3: The rolee of large wwood transp port duringg floods waas included in the
analysis by modeeling differeent scenarioos.
 Step 4: Damagge functio ns with predictive
p bounds annd flood hazard
h
thresh
holds were used to est imate the 500-year
5 flo
ood risk in tterms of expected
or potential direct damage ((Messner an
nd Meyer, 2005)
2 and inn terms of danger
d
or hazzards for peeople (HR W
Wallingford
d, 2005).
FFigure 3: Schheme of meethodologiccal approachh for flood risk

r estimattion. Qt is a given
retur
urn period discharge;
d LW
LWD = largge woody deebris transpo
port.
A 334 TESIS DOCTO
Therefore, the flood riisk is estimaated as:
The probabbilities desccribe the folllowing unccertainties:
P(Q´/P´) : uncertaintty in the disscharge-probability relaationship
P(Z´/Q´) : uncertaintty in the staage-dischargge relationsh

hip
P[S´/(Z0-Z
Z´≤0)] : unccertainty inn the stage-ddamage relationship
If no uncerrtainties are taken into account, th

hen:
R=P S´ whhere:
S´ is the ressult.
P is the proobability of hazard occuurrence (prrobability off a flood eveent)
3.1. Extrreme value statisttics: flood frequency analyysis
As several studies haave indicateed, the maajor source of uncertaainty in flo ood risk
assessmment has too be expectted in extreeme values statistics
s Merz et al., 2002). Thee Arenal
(M
river bbasin at Arrenas de San n Pedro is uungauged, so no flow measuremeents were available.
a
We ussed a compiilation of hiistorical disscharges estimated usinng rainfall-rrunoff meth hods and
accounting for uncertaintiess related to antecedentt condition ns and land--use changees. These
historrical floods were reco onstructed from docu umentary sources andd tree-ring analysis
(descrribed in deetail in Ruiiz-Villanuevva et al., su ubmitted). Then, thee Bayesian Markov
Chain n Monte CarloC (MC CMC) proocedure (R Reis and Sttedinger, 22005) was applied
accounting for uncertaintie
u es in discharrge estimattes, and pro
oviding connfidence bou unds for
the obbtained quaantiles (Gaaal et al., 20110; Gaume et al., 20100). Throughh the incorp poration
of (sevveral subsetts of) data on
o historicaal floods (w
with associatted uncertaiainty), the in
nfluence
of varyying approaaches on the estimationn of quantiiles in at-sitee analyses pprovided thee related
variabbility.
VIRGINIA
3.2. 2D- hydrodynamic modeling
The hydrodynamic simulation was carried out applying the Iber two-dimensional
hydrodynamic software (Corestein et al., 2010; Bladé, 2012; www.iberaula.es), developed
by CIMNE, GEAMA group (UDC) and Flumen Research Institute (UPC). Iber is a
numerical tool for 2D simulation of turbulent free surface unsteady flow and sediment
transport in watercourses. Iber uses the finite volume method, which is widely used in
computational fluid dynamics (Leveque, 2002; Versteeg and Malalasekera, 2007). To solve
the hydrodynamics and turbulence, the finite volume method with a second order Roe
Scheme (time explicit scheme) is used on non-structured meshes. This method is especially
suitable for flows in mountain rivers, where shocks and discontinuities can occur giving
very sharp hydrographs. The method is conservative even when wetting and drying
processes take place.
The reach geometry was produced by topographic survey using a combination of

differential GPS and Total Station, to obtain a detailed Digital Elevation Model (DEM;
pixel size = 1 m; accuracy (z) = 10 cm) of the studied reach.
The calculation mesh was built with 47451 elements; initial, internal (bridges) and
boundary (inlet and outlet) conditions were defined; up to 23 minutes of computation
time was required to achieve model stability.
The water depth in the studied reach was analyzed under uncertainty of the
topographical accuracy and input Manning roughness coefficient values. The range of
possible roughness unit values was defined following the criteria established by Chow
(1959) and adapted for mountain streams by Jarret (1990). Assuming that there is a
statistical distribution of possible values of the Manning coefficient defined by normal
distribution, the distribution parameters are N(μ,σ). To obtain all (or almost all) possible
values from the distribution in a fuzzy set universe, 4σ was selected as the base interval of a
fuzzy set. In this case, 95% of the value population is in the fuzzy set universe.

3.3. Wood transport recruitment and 2D hydrodynamic

simulation
In forested mountain catchments the supply of large woody debris (LWD) may be
caused by a variety of mechanisms including landslides, floods and bank erosion (May and
Gresswell, 2003; Swanson, 2003). Potentially recruitable wood volumes were estimated
depending on the recruitment process severity (Ruiz-Villanueva et al., 2012b), but focused
on fluvial transport during floods as the main recruitment process. The transport of wood
in the river was then simulated building reliable scenarios. A numerical model was
developed and integrated in the 2D Iber model to simulate the hydrodynamics and wood
transport (a detailed description can be found in Ruiz-Villanueva et al., (under review);
only a brief description is provided here). This Lagrangian model calculates the position
and velocity of logs with different shapes using kinematic and dynamic approaches, both
based on the balance of forces involved in wood motion. The movement of wood logs
includes both translation and rotation. The approach accounts for the interactions
between the logs themselves and between the logs and the channel configuration. If a piece
of wood transported in the flow interacts with a gate or weir then the log may pass below
the gate or above the weir, depending on the gate opening and width, weir length, water
depth and wood diameter. The flow turbulence may affect this movement, therefore wood
velocity is re-calculated based on the turbulent kinetic energy of the flow. A significant
contribution of this model is that hydrodynamics and wood transport are computed in
two ways; therefore, the hydrodynamics influence the wood transport, but the presence of
wood also influences the hydrodynamics. This latter effect is solved with additional drag,
which is not considered in the 2D-Saint Venant equations for clean water. The drag forces
exerted on the logs located in a finite volume become an additional shear stress source
term, similar to how roughness is usually treated in this kind of schemes.
Initial wood conditions must be assigned to the whole domain. To do this, the
initial position of each log (x, y coordinates of mass centre and angle with respect to the
flow), length, diameter and density are specified.
Inlet boundary conditions for logs are assigned, specifying number of pieces per
minute (or volume) and establishing ranges of maximum and minimum lengths, diameters
and wood density. Stochastic variations of these parameters together with position and
angle must be used to characterize each piece of wood entering the simulation.
We used the available information on the forest stand from the Forest Map of Spain
and National Forest Inventory produced by the Ministry of the Environment (MFE,
2011). This uses up to three different species of forest trees, each with their development

stage, percentage occupation (percentage of the total forest occupied by these species),
canopy cover for total trees (percentage of ground covered by the horizontal projection of
the canopy), and DBH (diameter at breast height).
A series of scenarios was then simulated assuming that peak wood transport
occurred just before and during peak discharge and varying the distribution of the wood
budget (according to the three transport regime definitions proposed by Braudrick et al.,
1997):
 Scenario 1. Uncongested transport: low, steady wood load entering during

peak discharge. Piece-to-piece contact between logs occurring rarely or not at
all during movement. Logs typically occupy less than 10% of the channel area.
 Scenario 2. Semi-congested transport: medium, steady wood load entering
during peak discharge. Some logs moving individually and others moving in
clumps. Logs normally occupy 10 - 33% of the channel area.
 Scenario 3. Congested transport: high wood load entering during peak
discharge. Little spacing between logs. Logs normally move as almost a single
mass occupying more than 33% of the channel area.
In possibilistic terms, Scenario 1 is more likely to occur than Scenario 3 which is
unlikely and the worst-case scenario.
Since there was no information on the initial wood conditions no logs were placed in
the reach at the initial time step.
3.4. Potential flood damage and risk to population
The concept of damage functions is central to flood damage estimation, relating

damage to each element at risk to the flood characteristics (i.e. flood maps and land‐use
maps reflecting the type and the density of objects at risk). For physical assets such as
buildings (contents and structure) the relative functions (Kreibich et al., 2010) provide
susceptibility expressed as a percentage of the total asset value. In most flood damage
models the resulting damage is obtained from the type or use of the element at risk and the
water depth (Wind et al., 1999; NRC, 2000). Flood damage potential is used here as
potential damage in a flood-prone area. Sometimes this term is used as synonymous with
expected flood damage (flood damage figures estimated before a flood event) in the context

of flood risk management (Messner, FloodSite, 2006). Therefore, the estimation of direct
flood damage was assessed as follows: land use (from the cadastral data) together with
water depth maps were the inputs for the damage function. Since flooding events and their
resulting damage are usually highly spatially diverse, results were presented both as a
monetary figure and as a statistical analysis and on maps to show the spatial distribution of
damages.
All data used for our analysis is publicly available and updated. Most of the data was
obtained from municipal statistics (census and social data, Arenas de San Pedro). Seven
single land-use types were used for elements at risk: residential buildings (single storey,
multi-storey, with and without basement), industrial areas, agricultural areas (mainly fruit
and olive trees), and sports or recreation areas. Since there is a large riverside parking area,
potential damage to vehicles was also taken into account.
Recent literature on natural hazards highlights the significance of the social

dimension in hazard and related risk analysis (Haque and Etkin, 2007). In these situations,
human safety is at risk when people are exposed to flows which exceed their ability to
remain upright or to cross a waterway. In recent years, several numerical and laboratory-
based experimental studies have been undertaken to define the limits of human stability
within differing flow regimes (Gómez et al., 2010; Russo, 2009; Russo et al., 2011).
Human stability has been found to be influenced by numerous factors, but there is broad
agreement that the flood hazard level (defined as flood conditions causing people to be
swept away), is primarily related to velocity (v) and depth (y) and several authors have
proposed different ratios between these two parameters to express hazard levels in floods
(Abt et al., 1989; Reiter, 2000; Kelman, 2002; Shand et al., 2010). This dimension was
therefore introduced using depth-velocity functions (HR Wallingford, 2005) to assess the
human risk threshold. Some additional observations regarding population statistics were
also analyzed.

4. RESULTS
4.1. Expected 500-year flood event
The compiled discharge data series used in previous work were used as explained for
the frequency analysis. As a first stage, the data was processed as instrumental records in the
MCMC frequency analysis, and then trials were run with some of the events as
instrumental and others as historical, including the estimated uncertainty through an
iterative process. Some results of this iterative process are summarized in Table 2.
According to the differences in quantile estimates, an average value of 769 ± 252

3 -1
m ∙s (32%) represents the variability in the estimated 500-year flood discharge. The
estimated maximum likelihood value was taken as 610 m3∙s-1, and 517 m3∙s-1 and 1022 m3∙s-
1
were taken as the 5% and 95% confidence limits respectively of this estimate.
Table 2: Arenal river at Arenas de San Pedro : estimated discharge quantiles Q(ML)
corresponding to return period T =500. CI0.05 (CI0.95) is the 5% (95%) confidence limit of
estimates Q(ML).
FFA settings Q(ML) CI0.05 CI0.95

FFA 1 476 406 1020
FFA 2 413 405 609
FFA 3 424 368 943
FFA 4 1129 889 1518
Mean 610 517 1022
Regional model 641 - -
Note that the existing regional model of maximum discharges for the western section
of the Tajo river basin proposed by Mediero and Jimenez (2007) and CEDEX (2011) gives
a value of 641 m3∙s-1 for this quantile (without any confidence interval). The historical
event estimates for this river revealed that the highest magnitude flood in the 20th century
in this area was in 1936 with a discharge of 509 ± 145 m3∙s-1(Ruiz-Villanueva et al.,
submitted).

For the Cuevas tributary stream, since there is a dam upstream of its confluence with
the Arenal, we assumed the maximum discharge without overflooding to be 205 m3∙s-1.
Manning coefficient values were assigned to each cell of the mesh, ranging from
0.011 - 0.019 m1/2∙ s–1 in the built-up area, from 0.066 - 0.189 m1/2 ∙s–1 for forested areas,
0.06 - 0.14 m1/2 ∙s–1 for vegetated banks, and 0.023 - 0.084 m1/2∙ s–1 in the main channel
where large boulders were present.
The combination of the flood frequency results with the Manning values
distribution allowed us to obtain a probabilistic map for the expected flood-prone area for
the 500-year flood (Fig.4).
Wood transport scenarios were built based on the parameters (discharge and
Manning roughness values) used for the 90% probability inundation map. When wood
enters the simulation, the main effect is the backwater effect upstream of the bridges where
the wood is entrapped and deposited, reducing the cross-sectional area, and as a result the
water depth increases significantly in these areas (Fig.5).

Figure 4: Probabilistic flood map (without wood transport) for 500-year flood.

Figure 5: Water depth (in meters) for the 90% probabilistic flooding map (A) without
wood; (B) scenario 1 of wood transport and deposition; (C) scenario 2; (D) scenario 3.

4.2. Potential damages with and without wood transport

scenarios
The financial replacement value for damage estimation was based on average market
prices for this town: residential buildings - 1 200 €∙m-2; industrial buildings- 1 400 €∙m-2;
vehicles -12 000 €; sport and recreation areas - 60 €∙m-2. For residential and industrial uses,
the financial value of structural damage was taken as 15% of the average building price and
the value of contents damage as 20%, based on insurance data and previous studies
(PATRICOVA, 2002; Ballesteros et al., under review; Fig.6).
Figure 6: Examples of the damage functions used in this analysis. (A) Structural
vulnerability (B) contents vulnerability (depth-damage functions) for one-storey
residential buildings with basement.
Seven land-use types were analyzed, with most buildings in type 3: single-storey
without basement; Type 4: multi-storey without basement; and type 9: industrial. These
three types were therefore used for further analysis (Fig.7).
The total estimated expected damage in Arenas de San Pedro for the 500-year flood
(probability equal to 0.002) without wood transport is up to 14 000 € m-2 affected area
(with 85% probability ).
When wood transport is simulated these values change (Fig. 8) to up to 21 000 € m-2.

FFigure 7: Pootential dam

mage to the sstructure an
nd content of the threee main typees of
buildings in
i the area bbased on sim
mulation without
wi wood
od.
Figur
ure 8: Total potential
p damage
da in thhe three mai
ain types off buildings
b inn the area based
ba on
simuulations with
thout woodd (light bluee bars) and for
f the threee scenarios oof wood traansport
(wooody brown n bars).
Arenas de San Pedro has a totaal area of approx.

a 1955 km2 withh 6874 inhaabitants,
49.25% male andd 50.75% female
f (INEE, 2008 an
nd municipal census ddata). A pop
pulation
analyssis by age sh
hows that 1535
1 (22.333%) are un
nder 25; 258
81 (37.54%
%) are 25- 50;
5 1549
VIRGINIA
(22.53%) are 50 - 70; and 1209 (17.58%) are over 70. 29.15% of the population is
considered as dependant (over 65 or under 18). There are at least 453 illiterate inhabitants
(6.6%); 961 (13.4%) with no formal education; 1613 (23.46%) with basic qualifications;
187 (2.7%) university graduates; approx. 605 (8.8%) are unemployed (2008 census data).
There are approx. 2358 households (usual residence) with an average two occupants over
35 and one 16 - 34. The second most common type of household has 2 occupants with at
least one over 65.
These statistics suggest that approx. 30% of the population is highly vulnerable, and
based on the flood simulations without wood transport, a minimum of 105 residential
buildings would be affected, with 50% of these multi-storey; assuming that each storey is
one household, with an average 3 residents per house, the minimum number of people
potentially affected by flooding is 400 (with 120 of these highly vulnerable) . If we take
into account the worst-case wood transport scenario these figures increase to 120 buildings
with 540 (162 highly vulnerable) inhabitants.
In addition we analysed the human danger zone (based on water depth and flow
velocity) and the potential transport capacity of the flow (in terms of potentially mobile
sediment diameter), which could both be important factors in an evacuation process (Fig.
9).
For the worst-case wood transport scenario, the transport capacity does not change
significantly; the ellipse in Fig. 9C shows the area where this parameter increases (upstream
of the wood depositional reach). Note the backwater effect in the flooded areas
downstream; in this area the flow has a very low transport capacity. However, the human
danger zone increases significantly, particularly in the area marked in Fig. 9D with an
ellipse, where the effect of bridge clogging causes inundation.
The car park area has an approx. capacity for 75 vehicles, although there are also
other parking areas. But just considering this area, and the average market price of 12 000 €
per vehicle, the potential damages may be as high as 400 000-500 000 € (with 85%
probability) but if wood transport is included in the simulation this value increases to 700
000 € (Fig. 10).

Figure 9: (A) Flow transport capacity (diameter of sediment in meters) without wood and
(C) scenario 3 of wood transport; (B) Danger zone for people without wood and (D)
scenario 3 of wood transport. Maps are related to the 90% probability 500-year flood.

CAPÍTULO /CHAPTER
C 4
Figuree 10: Potenttial damage to vehicless in the riverrside parkin

ng area based
ed on simula
lations
withouut wood (ligght blue barrs) and for tthe three woood transpoort scenarioos (woody brown
b
bars).
5. Discussio
on
T
This paper uses
u a probaabilistic miicro-scale ap pproach to compute aand allocatee flood
risk andd related unncertainty. Except
E for tthe sport an
nd recreatioon areas, annd the vehiccles, all
other eeconomic criteria
c werre quantifieed at the level of individual hoouseholds. Social
vulneraability was also
a partiallly evaluatedd. Howeverr since the aim of thiis research was w to
evaluatee the influence of wood transportt in flood risk analysis, the estimatted econom mic loss
was nott as detailedd as that forr individual houses (seee an examplle of a studyy at house level
l in
De Mora and Díez-Herrero, 2008), butt mean valu ues were useed instead. The same is true
for sociial vulnerabbility which h was only partially evaluated,
e based
b on geeneral popu ulation
statisticcs, and the potential average nuumber of people p affeccted was evvaluated without
w
consideering any oth her vulneraability factoors.
Sccenario-based 2D hydrodynamiic modellin ng was carrried out tto analyze wood

transpoort. Since this
t processs has connsiderable intrinsic
i ncertainty the probab
un bilistic
ng was compplemented by possibililistic thinkin
thinkin ng, includin
ng worst-caase scenario
os. The
use of wworst-case scenarios iss problemaatic and deccision makers often re refuse to coonsider
them, siince they arre perceived
d as unrealisstic. The vaalue of inclu
uding worstt-case scenaarios in
A 348 TESIS DOCTO
situations where there is considerable uncertainty is the additional dimension that this
process adds to the risk assessment and risk management strategies (Merz et al., 2010).
Data on historical floods previously gathered from documentary sources and tree-
ring records were incorporated into the at-site flood frequency analysis (FFA). For this
purpose a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework (Kuczera, 1999; Reis
and Stedinger, 2005; Gaal et al., 2010; Gaume et al., 2010) was used and a likelihood
function was built in to handle the information on historical floods properly. Following
Gaume et al. (2010), we considered that accurate data on extremes (in terms of discharge)
are not absolutely necessary in such analysis as the main information needed is the
frequency of non-exceedance of a perception threshold (X0) and the historical period (h).
This analysis revealed large differences in quantile estimation based on different
approaches; e.g., the estimation of the 500-year quantile was strongly affected depending
on how the data was processed (as instrumental without uncertainty, or as historical with
uncertainty), increasing to more than twice the value. Underestimating this value may
result in risk underestimation, but at the same time overestimating it could result in
financial and risk management overestimation. Because of this uncertainty in the quantile
estimation, flood hazard maps have been produced using a probability approach
(Romanowicz and Beven, 2003; Bates et al., 2004; Pappenberger et al., 2006) as
deterministic approaches normally do not take uncertainties into account (Bates et al.,
2004; Merz et al., 2005, 2007; Di Baldassarre et al., 2010).
There was no rating curve or any other data available to calibrate the hydraulic
model. Therefore, the water depth was analyzed under uncertainty of the input Manning
roughness coefficient values of the main channel and inundation areas. The value range
was treated as normally distributed but using a fuzzy set approach. Komatina (2005)
compares this method with a Monte Carlo simulation and found them highly comparable,
with both methods giving almost the same results.
In order to estimate the damaged share of the asset values, depending on water depth,
relative depth-damage functions have to be applied. Such damage functions show the
average susceptibility of each sector against inundation depth. Since there was no organized
systematic collection of flood damage data in Arenas de San Pedro, we used functions
based on those used in other similar regions in Spain (PATRICOVA, 2002; Ballesteros et
al., under review), and computed predictive bounds to take the uncertainty into account.
Some studies apply aggregated values from insurance companies. For example, Briene et al.
(2002) in the Netherlands use an approximate value of 70 000 € per flat (year 2000).
German studies (e.g. Reese et al. 2003; Meyer 2005) often apply an average value of 700 €
per m 2 of living area (full replacement value) or 350 € per m 2 (depreciated value) which
also come from an insurance company. To estimate the damage we used the average market
replacement price for this town for residential and industrial buildings, cars, and sport or

recreation areas. For residential and industrial uses, the financial value of structural damage
was taken as 15% of the average building price; the value of contents damage was assessed
as 20%. The values are reliable approximations, but the calculations are in € m-2 because the
aim of this study was to make a probabilistic evaluation of uncertainty and to analyze the
influence of wood transport. The goal was to compare values, not to obtain exact monetary
losses.
The flow velocity can also have a significant influence on damages, because danger to
humans increases with velocity (Merz et al., 2010): People may be swept away when flow
velocities are above 0.5 m/s (Marco, 1994). However, a better indicator for human
instability in flood situations is the product of flow velocity v and water depth h. Abt et al.
(1989) or Russo et al. (2011) experimented in a test flume on human subjects standing on
different surfaces at various depths and velocities until the point of instability was reached .
Although to date velocity has rarely been taken into account in damage evaluation, we
attempted to include it in the analysis by means of hazardousness or dangerousness for
people.
The results of this paper show how wood transport and deposition may significantly
increase flood risk. When wood enters the simulation the main effect is the backwater
effect upstream in critical sections such as bridges, where wood is entrapped and deposited.
This reduces the cross-sectional area, and the water depth increases significantly producing
the inundation of nearby areas. As a result, the potential damage increases by up to 50%, as
well as the number of potentially exposed persons (35%). This increment may be
equivalent to the values obtained with the discharge of clear water (without wood)
corresponding to a higher return period (see the concept of equivalent return period in
Ruiz-Villanueva et al., 2012).
6. Conclusions
The presence of wood during a flood may influence the consequences and potential
damages of the flooding. The main effect is the obstruction of cross-sectional areas
particularly in critical sections such as bridges, which can trigger the inundation of nearby
areas. As a result, the flooded areas and flow conditions are different from those defined in
the absence of wood.

As this work demonstrates, the transport and deposition of wood in forested

mountain basins should not be ignored in flood risk assessment. However, systematic
applicability still requires considerable research.
Since it may not be easy to obtain empirical data of the process and there may be
considerable uncertainty, the scenario approach represents a powerful alternative.
Including the worst-case scenario in these situations is another dimension that this process
adds to risk assessment and risk management strategies.
Acknowledgments
This work was funded by CICYT MAS Dendro-Avenidas project (CGL 2010-19274) and the
Geological Survey of Spain (IGME). We are grateful to the Confederación Hidrográfica del Tajo and
Meteorological Agency (AEMET) for having provided meteorological data; the Junta de Castilla y León in
Ávila, Ayuntamiento de Arenas de San Pedro (particularly to Nuria Blázquez, Gloria Suárez and Sixto
Díaz) for their collaboration. Special mention to Martí Sánchez-Juni (UPC) for his collaboration; and to
Ignacio Gutiérrez and Luis Fernandez for their assistance with the topographical survey.

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5. SÍNTESIS, DISCUSIÓN Y
CONCLUSIONES
5.1. Síntesis y principales aportaciones

5.2. Discusión integrada
5.3. Futuras líneas de investigación
5.4. Conclusiones


5.1 Síntesis y principales aportaciones
Con el fin de alcanzar los objetivos planteados al inicio de este trabajo de

investigación, se han llevado a cabo los siguientes trabajos específicos:
 Estudios dendrogeomorfológicos que aportaran una nueva fuente de datos sobre

avenidas pasadas en cuencas no aforadas.
 Búsqueda y recopilación de información documental, que junto con las series de
datos instrumentales y los datos dendrogeomorfológicos se utilizaron para
caracterizar los eventos de avenidas desde finales del siglo XIX y analizar su
frecuencia.
 Reconstrucción de un evento de avenida no registrado instrumentalmente y cuyo
patrón de peligrosidad se vio fuertemente alterado por la influencia de la carga leñosa
transportada y depositada.
 Estudio de los procesos de incorporación de carga leñosa a los ríos, delimitación de las
áreas contribuyentes y estimación de las cantidades potencialmente disponibles con
una perspectiva del riesgo por su transporte y/o depósito durante avenidas.
 Desarrollo y validación con ensayos de laboratorio, de un modelo numérico que
permite la simulación del transporte de material leñoso junto con la hidrodinámica.
 Simulación de una avenida con abundante transporte de material leñoso analizando
su comportamiento en secciones críticas como puentes.
 Análisis de los efectos que la presencia de material leñoso en las avenidas tiene en las
evaluaciones del riesgo.
Como resultado final de estos trabajos parciales se ha desarrollado una nueva

propuesta metodológica para el estudio de avenidas en zonas de montaña.
En este capitulo se presenta de forma resumida una síntesis de los principales

resultados recogidos en el capitulo anterior, con el objetivo de resaltar las principales
aportaciones que se han obtenido en cada uno de ellos.
El apartado 4.1 presenta el estudio dendrogeomorfológico llevado a cabo en un

tramo del Río Pelayo que comprende un área afectada por avenidas, en el que además se
encuentran ubicados emplazamientos recreativos especialmente vulnerables (el camping
Los Galayos y el campamento Luis Manuel López). Puesto que se trata de una cuenca no
aforada, este trabajo tenía por objetivo la datación de eventos pasados no registrados
instrumentalmente para obtener una cronología de estos procesos. De este modo, previa
identificación y análisis de los mismos, se procedió al muestreo con barrena Pressler de
aquellos ejemplares de Pinus pinaster que presentaban evidencias externas (241 muestras

de 98 árboles). Las principales evidencias que se observaron en los árboles afectados por las
avenidas fueron: inclinación del fuste (93 %), raíces expuestas (64 %) y heridas con
descortezados (7%). También se muestrearon otros 16 árboles no afectados (con 28
testigos extraídos) que sirvieron para elaborar una serie de referencia o patrón y con ella
eliminar anomalías debidas a variaciones climáticas, epidemias o plagas.
Mediante el conteo y medida de los anillos de crecimiento se obtuvieron las curvas de

crecimiento y se dataron 280 anomalías, de las cuales la más común fue la supresión en el
crecimiento, que se detectó en un 70% de las muestras. Por el contrario, heridas producidas
por impactos de material transportado en el flujo se detectaron sólo en un 7% de los casos.
Además se realizó un análisis de la relación entre las evidencias externas que

mostraban los árboles y la posición geomorfológica que ocupaban en el cauce o las orillas.
Para ello se realizó una cartografía geomorfológica de detalle, cuya comparación con las
evidencias dendrogeomorfológicas observadas en los árboles ha permitido correlacionar la
dinámica de los procesos fluvio-torrenciales con las afecciones a la vegetación. Las
posiciones en las que aparecieron un mayor número de individuos con diferentes evidencias
dendrogeomorfológicas son (en orden decreciente): los márgenes externos de las barras
laterales (longitudinales y laterales), los escarpes (y bancos de orilla), los márgenes de las
barras medias, las curvas internas de meandros incipientes, y cabeza y márgenes internos de
las barras laterales. Esta observaciones permitieron confirmar que un número mayor de
evidencias distintas se asocian a las facetas geomorfológicas más energéticas. También se
observó cómo en determinadas facetas y posiciones geomorfológicas, como las confluencias
o tramos rectos, hay una menor diversidad de evidencias asociadas. Esta comparación es sin
duda de gran utilidad para la elaboración de futuras estrategias de muestreo; minimizando
el número de ejemplares a muestrear, y focalizando el muestreo en aquellos individuos que
aporten la información más relevante.
La cuantificación de los siguientes parámetros: el tipo de anomalía detectada, su

intensidad, el porcentaje de árboles afectados para un mismo año y la distribución espacial
de éstos, permitieron obtener un índice que, combinado con el test no paramétrico
Wilcoxon–Mann, posibilitó datar eventos de avenidas pasadas en los últimos 50 años. Este
procedimiento representa una novedad en los estudios dendrogeomrofológicos, y
proporciona una herramienta objetiva para datar eventos geomorfológicos basados en
anomalías de crecimiento de diversa naturaleza.
Así se detectaron dos poblaciones de eventos de avenidas pasadas. La primera

población asociada a eventos de baja frecuencia y mayor magnitud que dejan un mayor
número de evidencias, o evidencias de mayor intensidad (quedando mejor registradas en la
vegetación). La segunda, de mayor frecuencia y menor magnitud, aunque aún suficiente
para causar daños detectables en la vegetación.

En el apartado 4.2 se muestra la caracterización de avenidas pasadas en cuatro

cuencas no aforadas o con escasos registros de aforos disponibles. Este trabajo tenía por
objetivos: (i) obtener una cronología lo más completa posible de eventos pasados de
avenidas a través de diversas fuentes de datos (históricas, botánicas e instrumentales); (ii)
combinar estos datos, y sus incertidumbres, para analizar la frecuencia de avenidas en las
zonas de estudio. El trabajo comenzó con la búsqueda de documentación, contenida en los
archivos municipales y en la prensa, sobre todo, aunque también se consultaron los
catálogos de protección civil, publicaciones científicas, etc. También se analizaron los datos
dendrogeomorfológicos extraídos en el trabajo anterior para el río Pelayo y se completaron
con los datos dendrogeomorfológicos obtenidos en el Río Arenal. Estos últimos se
centraron en la datación de heridas externas e internas producidas en Alnus glutinosa y
Fraxinus angustifolia por la carga sólida transportada durante los eventos. Estas heridas se
analizaron en secciones completas de árboles que habían sido previamente talados por la
Confederación Hidrográfica del Tajo en labores de limpieza de los cauces.
Una vez recopilada e integrada la información en una base de datos se procedió a la

cuantificación y clasificación de los eventos basados en su intensidad y duración, así como a
inferir las causas meteorológicas que los desencadenaron. De este modo se pudieron
analizar 41 eventos desde 1849.
Los únicos datos instrumentales disponibles comunes a las 4 cuencas y para este
intervalo temporal fueron las series de precipitación en 24 horas en diversas estaciones
pluviométricas de la zona. Estos datos se utilizaron para calcular la lluvia areal en las
cuencas de estudio, y mediante un sencillo método empírico de trasformación lluvia-
escorrentía se estimaron caudales para un gran número de eventos. Ya que no se contaba
con información referente a los cambios en los usos del suelo y/o las condiciones
antecedentes de humedad para estos eventos, el parámetro de coeficiente de escorrentía se
trató de forma estocástica en las estimaciones. Así, mediante simulaciones de Monte Carlo,
se obtuvieron los valores de caudales más probables con una estimación de la incertidumbre
asociada. La validación del método se llevó a cabo comparando los valores estimados con
los observados para la serie disponible y se obtuvieron unas tasas de error del 17%.
De la clasificación y análisis de los documentos se pudieron extraer importantes

observaciones. De todos los eventos estudiados, seis fueron clasificados como de alta
intensidad, basándose en la información documental. Para estos mismos eventos se
estimaron los valores mayores de caudal (1936, 1963, 1995, 1999, 2000, y 2003), siendo el
de 1936 el de mayor magnitud de todos los estudiados. En cinco de los eventos recopilados
(1936, 1959, 1982, 1990, y 1999) se produjeron víctimas mortales, sin embargo, no todos
ellos fueron clasificados como de alta magnitud; esto se explica porque tuvieron lugar
principalmente en verano (excepto el evento de 1936), cuando la población de la zona
aumenta debido al turismo y la percepción del riesgo puede disminuir. El estudio de la

estacionalidad de los eventos también reveló importante información, y sirvió como base
en la interpretación de las causas meteorológicas. Un 60% de los eventos tuvieron lugar en
otoño-invierno, mientras que el 40% restante en primavera-verano. Por tanto, es posible
afirmar que la mayor parte de las avenidas en estas zonas se relacionan con perturbaciones
frontales de invierno. Así lo corroboró también la comparación con otros estudios previos
de la cuenca del Tajo, y la correlación encontrada entre los caudales de los eventos más
intensos con un elevado índice NAO negativo.
Este trabajo no sólo se basó en documentación histórica, sino que combinó esta
información con los resultados de estudios dendrogeomorfológicos, lo que permitió
obtener un mayor conocimiento en la interpretación de la dinámica de estos ríos.
Las estimaciones de caudales y su incertidumbre asociada se integraron con los datos

instrumentales para obtener la frecuencia de avenidas. Para ello se emplearon métodos
bayesianos basados en Monte Carlo y Cadenas de Markov, que permiten incluir datos
censurados y estimados con incertidumbre y dan como resultado las curvas de frecuencia y
sus intervalos de confianza. De esta forma, se analizó la variabilidad que puede existir en los
resultados en función de cómo se tratan los datos en el análisis, resultando en una
incertidumbre en los cálculos de los cuantiles. Esta incertidumbre debe ser tenida en cuenta
cuando estos datos se utilizan en análisis de riesgo.
En el apartado 4.3 se recoge la reconstrucción del evento de 1997, que afectó al

Arroyo Cabrera en Venero Claro y del que no se disponía de registros instrumentales de
aforos. Este evento se caracterizó por transportar elevadas cargas de material leñoso. Los
objetivos de este trabajo eran por tanto, reconstruir la magnitud del evento y analizar la
influencia de la carga leñosa en los patrones de peligrosidad. Esta carga leñosa fue
responsable del bloqueo parcial o total de varios puentes, lo que generó una sobrelevación
de la lámina de agua aguas arriba de las estructuras. Esta sobrelevación puede resultar en
una sobrestimación del caudal si no se tiene en cuenta la presencia del material leñoso en
los cálculos. Se pudo estimar la altura de la lámina de agua en varias secciones a partir de
marcas de aguas altas o paleonivel encontradas en la zona tras el evento. Así, en la sección
del puente principal, el agua alcanzó una altura de 7.1 m.
Así, el caudal punta (123±18 m3 s-1) se estimó mediante métodos clásicos de

paleohidrología y post evento, basado en la competencia del flujo y empleando
aproximaciones como el denominado método slope-covenyance en aquellas secciones
menos influenciadas por los procesos de sobrelevación. De esta forma se obtuvo un valor de
caudal y su incertidumbre asociada. Este valor fue contrastado con otros estudios realizados
en la zona, y con la simulación hidrológica. La simulación hidrológica se basó en

simulaciones estocásticas geoestadísticas de los únicos datos disponibles en la zona, la lluvia

en 24 horas registrada en 10 pluviómetros. Además los resultados de estas simulaciones se
combinaron con tres distribuciones temporales de hietogramas para tratar de reconstruir el
patrón de precipitación espacio-temporal de la lluvia desencadenante. La simulación
hidrológica reveló que un caudal superior a 150 m3 s-1 era muy poco probable y
proporcionó el hidrograma simulado para ese evento.
El siguiente paso fue reconstruir el proceso de obstrucción en el puente para estimar

el porcentaje de la sección del mismo que quedó bloqueada con el material leñoso. Para ello
se llevó a cabo un proceso iterativo empleando un modelo hidráulico unidimensional.
Previamente se había obtenido una topografía detallada de todo el tramo (200 m de largo)
y del puente. Así, se simularon, a intervalos de 10 m3 s-1, caudales entre 10 y 200 m3 s-1,
variando a su vez para cada uno de los valores, la sección efectiva del puente en un 10% en
cada iteración. Este proceso permitió obtener las curvas calado/obstrucción para el puente.
Esta iteración dio como resultado para el caudal y altura de la lámina de agua estimados en
el puente, durante la avenida de 1997 una obstrucción del mismo igual a un 48 ± 8% de la
sección total.
Además, se reconstruyó el efecto de esta obstrucción en el calado de la sección

estudiada y la extensión de la inundación. Se simuló el caudal estimado con y sin
obstrucción, observándose, como era esperable, un incremento en el nivel del agua y en el
área afectada aguas arriba. A la vista de los resultados obtenidos se puede afirmar que las
consecuencias de la inundación fueron equivalentes a las que corresponderían a un evento
de mayor caudal. Como consecuencia de esta importante observación, se definió el nuevo
concepto de periodo de retorno equivalente, como el intervalo de recurrencia de un evento
de cierta magnitud, que en presencia de una obstrucción (en este caso debida al transporte y
acumulación de woody debris), es equivalente en calado y extensión a un evento (sin
obstrucción) de mayor caudal. Inicialmente, el periodo de retorno estimado para el evento
de 1997 era de 25 años. Sin embargo, debido al proceso de obstrucción sería equivalente al
evento de periodo de retorno de 50 años; es decir, la intensidad (el periodo de retorno) del
evento es el doble de la que cabría esperar sin esta obstrucción.
En el apartado 4.4 se analizan los procesos de incorporación del material leñoso

a los ríos. Para ello se desarrolló una nueva metodología basada en sistemas de información
geográfica para delimitar las áreas contribuyentes y junto con un estudio de la vegetación
estimar los volúmenes que podrían llegar al río, suponiendo con ello un riesgo potencial
por su transporte y depósito durante avenidas. Esta metodología se aplicó para el Sector
Central de la Sierra de Gredos perteneciente a la provincia de Ávila, donde se disponía de la
información necesaria para llevar a cabo el análisis.

Los mecanismos estudiados de incorporación de material leñoso a los ríos fueron los
movimientos del terreno (deslizamientos), la erosión de los bancos de orilla, y las propias
avenidas e inundaciones. Para conocer la dinámica de incorporación de carga leñosa es
necesario establecer las áreas contribuyentes que pueden aportar el material, entendiendo
estas áreas como aquellas susceptibles de sufrir un determinado proceso. Estas fueron
trazadas basadas en mapas existentes de la zona de estudio y para los cuales se analizaron los
factores de conectividad con el río. Así, creando unas matrices de lógica difusa se
establecieron criterios en función de la intensidad de los eventos y su frecuencia para
establecer la probabilidad de que un árbol sea incorporado como detrito leñoso desde las
laderas o desde el corredor fluvial. Estos criterios dependen de la distancia al cauce, la altura
del árbol, la pendiente de la ladera, la inundabilidad y la capacidad de erosión del río.
Además, se requiere un conocimiento detallado de la tipología y distribución de la
vegetación que definen una resistencia (o facilidad) a ser incorporado como detrito leñoso
en el río.
Siguiendo los criterios anteriores, se establecieron diversos escenarios que representan

posibles mecanismos de incorporación de madera dependiendo de la severidad y frecuencia
con la que los procesos de incorporación tienen lugar. De este modo, es posible estimar el
volumen de madera potencialmente disponible para cada uno de los escenarios. El modelo
fue sometido a un análisis de sensibilidad y verificado mediante observaciones de campo.
Para ello se definieron una serie de criterios de identificación directos e indirectos de la
dinámica de la carga leñosa en los ríos. Este trabajo aporta además como novedad la
definición de diferentes evidencias dendrogeomorfológicas como indicadores que pueden
aportar información acerca de los mecanismos de incorporación y de transporte de la
madera.
El análisis estuvo enfocado en un potencial riesgo ocasionado por el transporte y

deposito del material leñoso durante avenidas; por ello se centró en estudiar aquellas
cuencas cuyos ríos atraviesan poblaciones aledañas. Los resultados resaltaron 7 de estas
cuencas (cuenca del río Arenal, cuenca del río Pelayo, cuenca del arroyo Cabrera,
subcuencas 1 y 2 del río Alberche en Navaluenga, La Adrada, Piedralaves y Mijares) por su
mayor capacidad de generar detritos leñosos. También revelaron que el escenario menos
probable es aquel en el que todos los procesos tienen lugar a la vez afectando a todas las
zonas susceptibles; en contraposición con el escenario más probable para la zona de estudio,
que es aquel en el que la incorporación de madera tiene lugar principalmente por
inundaciones y erosión de bancos de orilla y sólo en las zonas delimitadas como de elevada
susceptibilidad.

El apartado 4.5 expone de forma detallada el modelo numérico desarrollado para

simular el transporte de material leñoso en ríos. El modelo numérico fue desarrollado en
lenguaje de programación Fortran e implementado como un módulo nuevo en el modelo
hidrodinámico bidimensional Iber.
En este modelo, el inicio del movimiento de una pieza de madera (suponiendo ésta
como un cilindro) situada en un cauce, se determina mediante un análisis de las fuerzas que
actúan sobre ella. Por un lado, la fuerza gravitacional y la fuerza de arrastre que facilitan el
movimiento, y por otro lado la fuerza de rozamiento o fricción que se opone al
movimiento. Estas fuerzas dependen de parámetros como la densidad de la madera, su
longitud y diámetro, el ángulo que forma con respecto al flujo, las condiciones
hidrodinámicas del flujo (calado y campo de velocidades) y unos coeficientes de fricción
con el lecho y de arrastre. Así, una pieza de madera iniciará su movimiento y se desplazará,
bien por flotación (a una velocidad similar a la del agua) o por rodadura o arrastre de fondo
(a una velocidad diferente a la del agua).
Además de la traslación, el modelo simula la rotación que se produce por la

distribución no uniforme de velocidad a lo ancho de la sección. Esto hace que un extremo
se mueva más rápido que el otro, y la pieza se vaya orientando en la dirección del flujo.
Naturalmente, si el flujo no es uniforme y el canal no es prismático, el proceso deriva en un
movimiento giratorio de los troncos a lo largo del tiempo. Para simular el cambio de
orientación de los troncos, se calcula la vorticidad del flujo a partir del valor de la velocidad
del agua en los extremos.
La presencia de material leñoso en el cauce ejerce sobre el flujo una resistencia

adicional, que no está presente en las ecuaciones de Saint Venant (2D) y que ha sido
incorporada en el modelo. El flujo en los ríos además puede ser turbulento (especialmente
en cauces de alta energía) y esta turbulencia es tenida en cuenta en el modelo. En caso de
incluir la turbulencia en los cálculos, se recalcula la velocidad de las piezas de madera
empleando un coeficiente de restitución en función de la energía cinética turbulenta. De
esta manera se añade un cierto factor de aleatoriedad en el movimiento de los troncos que
permite que su movimiento se asemeje más a la realidad. Esto significa que una pieza
colocada en la misma posición, con iguales características, pero teniendo en cuenta la
turbulencia, puede trazar una trayectoria algo diferente y terminar en una posición distinta
en cada simulación.
También el modelo tiene en cuenta la interacción (choques) entre varias piezas y

entre éstos y el cauce, así como la posibilidad de que una parte del tronco quede en fondo
seco. En este último caso, las fuerzas de arrastre se ven modificadas actuando tan solo en la
longitud de tronco mojada.

El modelo funciona asignando unas condiciones iniciales mediante la posición inicial

de cada pieza en el tramo de río a modelizar, su longitud, diámetro, densidad y el ángulo
con respecto al flujo. También existe la posibilidad de asignar condiciones de contorno de
entrada. Mediante unos rangos de los parámetros anteriores (longitud, diámetro, densidad
y el ángulo con respecto al flujo), el modelo realiza simulación estocástica de éstos para
caracterizar cada pieza de madera que entra en la simulación.
La validación del modelo se realizó mediante ensayos de laboratorio. La geometría del

canal empleado, de sección transversal rectangular y paredes laterales lisas, fue modificada
con varios obstáculos para formar un fuerte campo de velocidades bi-dimensional y
turbulencia. Se emplearon dos caudales con diferentes condiciones de contorno de
vertedero para generar diferentes escenarios de flujos. Las piezas de madera que se
utilizaron para simular los troncos en el río, fueron cilindros redondos de madera de haya
de diferentes dimensiones. Todos los ensayos se grabaron con una cámara digital de gran
angular instalada unos metros por encima del canal. Los videos fueron procesados
mediante un código desarrollado en Matlab para determinar la trayectoria de cada pieza en
el canal. Así se pudieron comparar los resultados del modelo matemático con los ensayos en
el modelo físico. Este modelo representa una aportación novedosa, ya que no existía hasta
ahora ningún modelo numérico que permitiera simular el transporte de la carga leñosa
junto con la hidrodinámica.
En el apartado 4.6 se muestra la primera aplicación del modelo desarrollado en el

trabajo anterior en una de las zonas de estudio, y con el objetivo de emplearlo en tramos
con secciones críticas como puentes. Se ensayaron además, diferentes escenarios de
entrada de material distribuido a lo largo del hidrograma para observar los efectos que tiene
en el proceso de obstrucción y tratar de reconstruir el régimen de transporte. De este modo
se reconstruyó el evento de 1997 ocurrido en el arroyo Cabrera, esta vez utilizando el
modelo bidimensional Iber en modo transitorio y el módulo desarrollado para el transporte
de material leñoso (apartado 4.4). Ya que se disponía de abundante información derivada
del estudio anterior (apartado 4.3), como la cota de la lámina de agua en diferentes
secciones, el porcentaje de obstrucción de la sección del puente y el hidrograma simulado, el
modelo pudo ser parcialmente validado.
En primer lugar se estimó el volumen de material que pudo llegar al tramo de estudio,
evaluando el tipo de vegetación situada en la zona afectada por la avenida y el proceso de
avulsión que tuvo lugar aguas arriba de este tramo. Siguiendo la metodología propuesta en
el apartado 4.4, en función de la especie y del estado de la vegetación se estimó la resistencia
de la misma a ser incorporada al cauce como detrito leñoso, y junto con la densidad
(número de individuos por área) se calculó el volumen. Este volumen se utilizó como

condición de entrada y se distribuyó en el tiempo suponiendo que el máximo transporte se

produce poco antes de la punta del hidrograma formando tres escenarios: (i) transporte
repentino, el 100% es transportado durante el pico del hidrograma; (ii) transporte
escalonado, el material entra poco a poco durante la punta del hidrograma; (iii) transporte
constante, el 100% es transportado durante casi toda la duración del evento.
Los resultados permitieron observar los patrones de depósito del material leñoso y
éstos se compararon con la abundante información gráfica (fotografías) disponible
recopilada unos días después del evento. Además se analizó el calado en aquellas secciones
donde se disponía de información complementaria, y de esta forma se pudo comprobar que
el escenario de transporte escalonado es el que más se ajustaba a las observaciones hechas en
campo y a la reconstrucción del fenómeno de obstrucción del puente recogida en el
apartado 4.3. Mientras que los escenarios de transporte repentino y transporte constante
suponían un mayor y menor porcentaje de obstrucción del puente respectivamente.
Este trabajo supone la primera aplicación y validación del modelo desarrollado en el

marco de este trabajo de investigación en un río real y los resultados muestran que
reproduce satisfactoriamente los patrones de depósito de detritos leñosos y permite simular
escenarios para analizar la influencia de este material en los patrones de peligrosidad
especialmente en secciones críticas como puentes.
El apartado 4.7 integra todo lo expuesto anteriormente y recoge un análisis de

riesgo elaborado con una perspectiva probabilista y en el que se analiza la influencia de la
carga leñosa para el caso del río Arenal en la localidad de Arenas de San Pedro. El objetivo
de este trabajo era, por un lado evaluar todas las incertidumbres asimilables a cada etapa de
la evaluación de riesgo; y por otro, analizar el efecto que el transporte de detritos leñosos
puede tener en las consecuencias de la avenida y por tanto en la estimación del riesgo. En
primer lugar se tomaron como datos de partida los análisis de frecuencia realizados en el
trabajo recogido en el apartado 4.2. De esta forma se seleccionó el cuantil de 500 años con
sus intervalos de confianza, en cuyos límites queda englobada la incertidumbre asociada a
estos análisis.
La incertidumbre relativa a los parámetros físicos, como el calado o la velocidad, de la

avenida de 500 años, fue evaluada basada en los valores de rugosidad de Manning, ya que no
se disponía de la información necesaria para su calibración. Suponiendo que el rango de
valores probables de este coeficiente sigue una distribución normal N(μ,σ), se seleccionó el
valor medio (μ) propuesto para cada tipo de suelo y unos límites formados por 4∙σ ( de esta
forma se obtienen los límites de 95% de probabilidad).

La combinación de caudales asignados a este cuantil con su probabilidad

correspondiente, junto con los valores de Manning y sus probabilidades asignadas, dio
como resultado el mapa de inundabilidad probabilista para el periodo de retorno de 500
años.
A continuación se generaron diferentes escenarios utilizando el resultado del análisis

anterior cuya probabilidad era igual al 90%. Estos escenarios se construyeron variando la
entrada de material leñoso al tramo de estudio basado en el tipo de régimen de transporte
(congestionado, semi-congestionado o no congestionado). Las simulaciones de los
diferentes escenarios permitieron evaluar la influencia de este proceso en las consecuencias
de la avenida de 500 años.
Para estimar el riesgo potencial asociado a este evento se empleó la información

catastral con el fin de evaluar la exposición y la vulnerabilidad de la zona. Los elementos
expuestos fueron clasificados en siete tipologías diferentes, además se tuvo en cuenta la
existencia de un aparcamiento en las cercanías del río y por tanto las posibles pérdidas
asociadas a los daños a automóviles. No existen en la zona curvas calado-daño especificas
basadas en datos empíricos, por lo que la vulnerabilidad se asignó empleando curvas
construidas mediante simulaciones estocásticas con objeto de obtener los límites
predictivos, utilizando como datos de entrada las propuestas en otros análisis de riesgo
similares llevados a cabo en España. De este modo se pudo realizar una estimación del
riesgo potencial para cada escenario establecido, primero sin incorporar el transporte de
material leñoso y a continuación los tres tipos de transporte. Además, se identificaron las
zonas más problemáticas donde el material queda depositado bloqueando las
infraestructuras y causando la inundación de las zonas adyacentes. Para introducir en el
análisis los posibles daños a las personas (daños intangibles) se emplearon datos del padrón
y de estadísticas municipales.
Como conclusión de este trabajo se puede confirmar que la presencia de material

leñoso incrementa el riesgo potencial hasta en un 50% para los daños tangibles directos y
un 35% en el caso del riesgo a las personas.

Los resultados obtenid man una prropuesta metodológ

dos conform m gica para abbordar el
estudiio de aveniidas en cueencas foresttadas de montaña:
m prrimero incoorporando diversas
fuentees de datos e incluyenndo la incerrtidumbre asociada
a al conocimiennto inexactto de los
mismoos (Fig. 5.1); y en segu
undo lugar, iintroducien
ndo en el an
nálisis la sim
mulación dee la carga
leñosaa.
Figure 5.11: Conceptuual scheme of the propposed metho

hodology to eestimate th
he flood
frequencyy.
VIRGINIA
CAPÍTULO /CHAPTER
C 5
Figura 5.1:
5 Esquem
ma conceptuual de la met
etodología propuesta
p paara estimar la
frecueencia de aven
enidas
Laa metodoloogía propuessta para inccorporar la cargac leñosaa en los anáálisis de riessgo por
avenidaas comienzaa con el anállisis de las ááreas contribbuyentes, ell estudio dee la vegetación y la
estimacción de loss volúmenes disponibbles. A coontinuación n, se simulla, junto con c la
hidrodiinámica, el transporte
t del
d materiaal en los ríoss, permitien ndo de este modo anallizar su
influenccia en la pelligrosidad y en el riesgoo (Fig. 5.2).
A 370 TESIS DOCTO
VIRGINIA
371 A RUIZ-VILLANUEEVA
Figure 5.2: Proposed methodology for incorporating woody material transport in flood risk analysis
TESIS DOCCTORAL/ PhD THESIS (2012)

372
TESIS DOCTO A
Figura 5.2: Propuesta metodológica para incorporar el transporte de material leñoso en los análisis de riesgo
por avenidas
C

5.2. Discusión integrada
En el apartado anterior se ha hecho una síntesis de los métodos y resultados

obtenidos a lo largo de este trabajo de investigación, resaltando las principales aportaciones
de cada uno de los trabajos específicos. Sin embargo, tanto los diversos métodos utilizados,
como aquéllos desarrollados específicamente, y los resultados con ellos obtenidos, no están
exentos de limitaciones. En este apartado se presenta una discusión integrada de los
métodos y resultados junto con una reflexión acerca de sus limitaciones.
En relación con los análisis dendrogeomorfológicos, estas técnicas ya habían sido

aplicadas con éxito en el estudio de avenidas e inundaciones en la Sierra de Gredos
(Ballesteros et al., 2011). Estos trabajos previos estuvieron focalizados en el uso de heridas y
descortezados en los árboles para la datación y reconstrucción de avenidas. Los trabajos
realizados para obtener las cronologías de eventos en el río Pelayo y en el río Arenal han
estado limitados por la propia naturaleza de la vegetación (la mayoría de evidencias
dendrogeomorfológicas utilizadas fueron anomalías de crecimiento, y apenas se
encontraron heridas), y en el caso del río Arenal por las labores de tala realizadas por la
Confederación Hidrográfica del Tajo (no se pudieron observar las alturas de los
descortezados). Por estas particularidades, la estimación de la magnitud (caudales) tuvo que
ser realizada empleando métodos de transformación lluvia-escorrentía. Otra limitación se
relaciona con las especies utilizadas para estos análisis (Pinus pinaster, Alnus glutinosa y
Fraxinus angustifolia). Los individuos encontrados no eran muy longevos y por tanto la
datación de eventos pasados no pudo retroceder más de 60 años. Esta limitación es común
a la mayoría de trabajos en dendrogeomorfología (Stoffel, 2010) y particularmente cuando
se analizan especies de ribera.
Las evidencias dendrogeomorfológicas encontradas en uno y otro río son producto,

por un lado, del tipo de vegetación (coníferas en uno, frondosas en otro) y por otro, del
tipo de tramo de río y la dinámica fluvial. En el caso del río Pelayo se trata de un tramo
caracterizado por un lecho con material muy grueso (cantos y bloques decimétricos a
métricos) asimilable a un tramo en cascada según la clasificación de Montgomery y
Buffington (1997), por lo que cabe suponer que este material es sólo movilizable durante
eventos de muy baja frecuencia (Grant, 1990), aunque sí se observa una movilidad más
frecuente del material más fino (gravas). Asimismo, no se observan restos de vegetación en
el cauce. Se puede suponer entonces que predomina el transporte de fondo, y este tipo de
transporte, junto con las particularidades de la vegetación, será el responsable de que la

mayoría de los ejemplares arbóreos estén inclinados y presenten raíces expuestas, y apenas
un porcentaje muy pequeño muestre heridas. Por otro lado, el tramo estudiado del río
Arenal se caracteriza por presentar un lecho con material más fino (cantos y gravas), y
podría definirse como una alternancia de tramos salto-poza y lecho plano (con zonas de
incisión sobre el lecho rocoso). En este caso aumenta la capacidad de transporte y el umbral
de movimiento de material esta cerca del caudal de bankfull (Dietrich, 1989; Buffington,
1995); además se observan abundantes restos de vegetación en el cauce y las márgenes. Este
aumento en la capacidad de transporte y el abundante material leñoso observado, que
generalmente será transportado por flotación, son los causantes de las numerosas heridas
encontradas en la vegetación a lo largo del río. Sin embargo, como ya se ha discutido en el
apartado 4.2, las heridas producidas en este caso no siempre están relacionadas con eventos
extraordinarios de avenidas, sino que están marcadas por el umbral de movimiento
mencionado y estarían condicionadas por la cantidad y el tipo de material disponible para
ser movilizado.
Por consiguiente, los datos extraídos de estos análisis deben ser examinados
cuidadosamente y si es posible, complementados con otras fuentes de información, como
las fuentes documentales.
La recopilación de eventos de avenidas utilizando fuentes documentales ha estado

limitada por la disponibilidad de información. Los principales centros documentales no
están próximos a las poblaciones de las zonas montañosas estudiadas, y el acceso a los
archivos municipales ha estado muy limitado debido a la organización interna de los
ayuntamientos. Por estos motivos, la fuente más consultada fue la prensa escrita. Este tipo
de fuente documental tiene numerosos inconvenientes. En principio la prensa escrita no
cumpliría las cuatro condiciones que según Le Roy Ladurie (1967) deben presentar las
fuentes documentales para la reconstrucción de eventos de este tipo. Según este autor, la
documentación ha de contener datos continuos, anuales, homogéneos y cuantitativos. Sin
embargo, los datos recopilados en la prensa escrita pueden estar sujetos a diversas fuentes de
subjetividad en relación con la magnitud del evento, como la percepción de los daños
ocasionados, o la alarma social en caso de víctimas. Por esta razón, Barriendos y Coeur
(2004) proponen una clasificación de la intensidad del evento en función de los daños a
diferentes tipos de infraestructuras y no basado en los fallecidos. Aunque esta clasificación
está también condicionada a posibles cambios en la calidad de las construcciones que
dificulten la interpretación de la magnitud del evento (Bullón, 2011). Esto se observó en las
descripciones de los daños ocasionados en los eventos de finales del siglo XIX, cuando la
mayor parte de los puentes eran de madera, mientras que a partir de 1950 estas
infraestructuras son en su mayoría de hormigón. También se pudo apreciar en la
documentación que en la época en la que ocurre un evento extremo con cuantiosas
víctimas y pérdidas económicas (como, por ejemplo, la rotura de la presa de Tous en 1982);

eventos de menor envergadura, aunque puedan ser de magnitud considerable no se recogen

en la prensa, o su descripción se limita a unas pocas líneas. Aunque por orto lado, puede
ocurrir lo contrario; después de la catástrofe de Biescas, los eventos ocurridos en Gredos en
1997 y 1999 se describían en prensa como eventos de similares características, aún sin
haber tenido las mismas consecuencias (en términos de víctimas y pérdidas económicas).
A pesar de estas limitaciones, la combinación de los datos dendrogeomorfológicos y

los obtenidos en las fuentes documentales permitió recopilar una cronología de eventos
desde 1849. Sin embargo, la estimación de la magnitud de estos eventos sólo pudo
realizarse mediante la conversión lluvia-escorrentía empleando los datos de precipitación
disponibles desde 1936 (en el mejor de los casos) y el método racional modificado.
La elección del método racional modificado fue derivada de la limitada

disponibilidad de datos de precipitación (sólo se disponía de series diarias de lluvia).
Muchos estudios proponen su utilización restringida a cuencas con unas determinadas
dimensiones o bajo condiciones específicas de duración de la precipitación (Témez, 1991;
1996). Además en algunos trabajos se ha demostrado que este método tiende a sobrestimar
los caudales de avenidas calculados (Thomas, 1987; Díez-Herrero, 2001; Potenciano,
2004). A pesar de estas limitaciones, su uso para estimar caudales ha sido muy utilizado en
el pasado (por ejemplo en Rico et al., 2005; Ortega, 2007); y se ha empleado, por ejemplo,
para la elaboración del Mapa de caudales máximos de avenidas para la red fluvial de la
España peninsular (DGA y CEDEX), donde se incluye este método para el cálculo de
caudales en cuencas inferiores a 50 km2. Como ya se ha expuesto en el apartado 4.2, el
parámetro más importante en este método empírico, y en general en hidrología, es el
coeficiente de escorrentía (Marchi et al., 2010); ya que este coeficiente aglutina los
`procesos de pérdidas´ y por tanto condiciona los caudales resultantes. Este parámetro fue
tratado de forma estocástica y permitió de este modo cuantificar la incertidumbre en las
estimaciones.
Debido a éstas y otras incertidumbres asociadas a las estimaciones indirectas de

caudales, Gaume y Borga (2008) y Lumbroso y Gaume (2012) proponen que se realice una
validación de las estimaciones, mediante la comparación, entre otras cosas, de curvas o
envolventes de eventos extremos existentes. Esta validación se realizó tanto para las
estimaciones recogidas en el apartado 4.2 como para las del 4.3, observando que todos los
eventos reconstruidos se ubican en las gráficas bajo el área de estas curvas, a excepción del
evento de 1936, que coincide con la línea de avenidas máximas observadas para España.
Este evento, uno de los que más información se recopiló, fue de todos los estimados el de
mayor magnitud, representando de esta forma el evento más importante del siglo XX para
las zonas estudiadas. Aunque parece que este evento afectó a una gran extensión de la
cuenca del Tajo, la búsqueda de información estuvo centrada sólo en las cuatro subcuencas

analizadas; sería pues necesario recopilar más información para analizarlo con mayor
profundidad y poder interpretarlo en un contexto regional y reconstruirlo con más detalle.
La inclusión en los análisis de frecuencia de eventos pasados no registrados

instrumentalmente reduce los intervalos de error en las estimaciones de los cuantiles
(Benito et al., 2004; Payrastre et al., 2005). Esto es así cuando se dispone de una serie
representativa de datos instrumentales y un amplio intervalo temporal cubierto por datos
históricos (Gaume et al., 2010). Estas dos circunstancias no se cumplían para los datos
tratados en los apartados 4.2 y 4.3 (a excepción tal vez del caso de Candeleda en el apartado
4.2); pero sí se observó una reducción significativa de los intervalos de confianza, así como
de una alta variabilidad en las estimaciones de los cuantiles. La principal limitación en el
análisis de frecuencia en este tipo de cuencas es la falta de registro instrumental, ya que no
suele haber estaciones de aforos, y como se ha observado, la información documental puede
ser limitada. Por estos motivos se hace necesaria la inclusión de otras fuentes de datos, y la
reconstrucción de eventos pasados mediante la utilización conjunta de diversos métodos.
Esta reconstrucción de eventos pasados, en el caso del evento de 1997 en la cuenca del
arroyo Cabrera (apartado 4.3), se realizó combinando diversos métodos: empíricos, como
el de la competencia del flujo, el llamado slope-conveyance, la simulación hidráulica y la
simulación hidrológica. La integración de estas metodologías, permitió estimar el caudal,
reproducir el proceso de obstrucción del puente principal y reconstruir el patrón de
precipitación para un evento que puede considerarse como un evento tipo de avenida
súbita para la zona de la Sierra de Gredos. La simulación hidrológica realizada empleó
como datos de entrada los resultantes de la simulación estocástica de la precipitación. De
nuevo, y al igual que ocurría con la aplicación del método racional modificado, fue
condicionante la falta de datos con suficiente resolución espacial y temporal. Los métodos
tradicionales de interpolación espacial pueden resultar limitados cuando se aplican a datos
de lluvia en regiones montañosas (Basist, et al., 1994; Daly et al., 1994; Prudhomme y
Reed, 1999; Marquínez et al., 2003); por esta razón se utilizó la simulación geoestadistica.
De esta forma se tuvo en cuenta también la topografía, al incorporar como variable
secundaria el modelo digital de elevaciones. Esta limitación en la resolución de los datos
puede ser superada en la actualidad con el desarrollo de la tecnología del radar
meteorológico; aunque no puede utilizarse para la reconstrucción de eventos históricos
(como se ha tratado en este trabajo de investigación), puesto que no se dispone de datos
históricos. Como se ha demostrado en diversos estudios, el uso de estos datos proporciona
una potente herramienta y abre nuevas perspectivas en el análisis de avenidas actuales
(Gaume y Borga, 2008; Marchi et al., 2009). No obstante, es importante también ser
consciente de los errores que pueden acompañar a los datos derivados del radar
meteorológico, especialmente en las zonas de montaña (Hossain et al., 2004).

Para reconstruir la respuesta hidrológica de las cuencas de estudio y obtener

hidrogramas completos (apartado 4.3), se llevó a cabo simulación hidrológica mediante
modelos hidrológicos semidistribuidos basados en el hidrograma unitario y el número de
curva. Estos métodos asumen ciertas hipótesis que pueden no satisfacer las condiciones
naturales, y por tanto llevan asociados una serie de limitaciones. Así, el método del
hidrograma unitario considera la interacción entre lluvia y escorrentía en una subcuenca,
suponiendo ésta como un sistema agregado y lineal. Igualmente, asume que el hidrograma
es único para la subcuenca dada e invariante en el tiempo (Chow et al., 1988). El método
del número de curva (McCuen, 1982) tiene en cuenta los usos y tipos de suelo, y las
condiciones de humedad antecedente, para definir un valor empírico entre 0 y 100 que se
asigna a cada una de las subcuencas y se mantiene constante durante la simulación. Cabe
señalar que al ser valores empíricos, significa que estos valores no pueden ser determinados
a partir de mediciones específicas, sino que deben obtenerse mediante el oportuno proceso
de calibración o ajuste, o bien ser estimados a partir de las características de la cuenca. Para
llevar a cabo la optimización de parámetros se utilizaron varios eventos registrados en la red
instrumental de pluviógrafos y limnimetro instalada en la cuenca. La limitada serie de
registros (desde 2004) condicionó que los eventos utilizados en esta calibración fueran de
menor magnitud (aunque fueron los más intensos registrados), que el evento que se
pretendía reconstruir. Alguno de estos eventos, y el propio evento analizado ocurrido en
1997 tuvieron lugar en invierno. En esta época del año la nieve está presente en la parte alta
de la cuenca estudiada. Sin embargo, el proceso de fusión de nieve no se ha tenido en cuenta
en la modelización, debido a la falta de datos.
Por otro lado, la elección de los métodos hidráulicos empleados en los apartados 4.3,
4.6 y 4.7 estuvo, una vez más, limitada por los datos de partida, pero en este caso también
estuvo condicionada por el tipo de tramo de río estudiado. Así, en el caso del tramo del
arroyo Cabrera, se utilizaron métodos empíricos, combinados con simulación hidráulica
unidimensional. Las características del tramo y del flujo permitían asumir las
simplificaciones de estos métodos (ver apartado 2.6). Las limitaciones más destacables del
uso de modelos 1D y de Hec-Ras en particular son: (i) La ecuación de la energía supone
siempre distribuciones hidrostáticas de presiones y la ecuación de fricción permanente de
Manning, además no tiene en cuenta la turbulencia. Por tanto, la solución no se ajustará a
la realidad en casos donde las presiones y las tensiones turbulentas se alejan del modelo
lineal; (ii) En principio sólo se deberían utilizar para modelizar ríos con pendientes
menores de 10º ya que no se tiene en cuenta la componente vertical del peso de la columna
de agua en las ecuaciones; (iii) Los saltos u obstáculos al flujo no son reproducidos
correctamente (ya que Hec-Ras no realiza balance de fuerzas).
Mientras que en los trabajos realizados en el río Arenal se optó por utilizar un modelo
bidimensional, puesto que el flujo desborda e inunda la zona urbana. El uso de modelos

2D, y de Iber en particular, permite resolver algunas de las limitaciones descritas para los
modelos 1D. Iber posibilita incluir la turbulencia en los cálculos, y utiliza el método de los
volúmenes finitos con un esquema de segundo orden de Roe. Este método es adecuado para
la simulación de flujos en ríos de montaña, ya que es capaz de modelizar cambios bruscos de
sección o discontinuidades a lo largo del tramo, así como singularidades (frentes de onda,
resaltos hidráulicos…), o tránsito de hidrogramas (régimen variable). Además se trata de un
método conservativo, incluso con variaciones en los frentes seco-mojado (permite eliminar
del cálculo los volúmenes finitos secos, e incorporarlos si se mojan, y se conserva
exactamente el volumen de agua incluso en presencia de fuertes irregularidades
geométricas). Sin embargo, también se asumen en estos modelos bidimensionales algunas
simplificaciones: (i) La profundidad de la lámina de agua debe ser pequeña con relación a
las otras dimensiones del problema (ecuaciones de aguas someras); (ii).También suponen
una distribución hidrostática de presiones en la vertical; (iii) De nuevo, deben ser utilizados
para modelizar tramos con pendiente reducida. El cumplimiento de estas hipótesis implica
que las componentes de la velocidad y aceleración en el eje z son despreciables frente a las
componentes en los otros ejes, y también que éstas últimas tienen una marcada
uniformidad vertical.
En ambos casos, uno de los parámetros más relevantes es el coeficiente de rugosidad

de Manning. Este coeficiente se ha estimado mediante observaciones de campo, valores
extraídos de la bibliografía (Chow et al., 1959; Arcement y Schneider, 1989) y otros
trabajos realizados en las zonas de estudio (Ballesteros et al., 2011). Además, los modelos
han sido calibrados allí donde se disponía de datos para hacerlo, como en el caso de los
trabajos 4.3 y 4.6, o bien se ha empleado una aproximación probabilista (apartado 4.7).
Algunos estudios han demostrado que el uso de un modelo hidráulico más sofisticado no
siempre ofrece mejores resultados (Horrit y Bates, 2002), siendo determinante la
obtención de la topografía (Horrit et al., 2006). El desarrollo de la tecnología LIDAR en
los últimos años ha facilitado la obtención de topografías con el detalle necesario para
emplear modelos bidimensionales (Marks y Bates, 2000). En este trabajo no se ha contado
con este tipo de información, por no estar disponible para los tramos seleccionados. Las
topografías de los tramos estudiados se obtuvieron mediante GPS, estación total y los
modelos digitales del terreno disponibles.
Una limitación añadida a la aplicación de los modelos hidráulicos empleados es

considerar el fondo fijo y no tener en cuenta el transporte de sedimentos sobre el
movimiento del agua. Ya que el objeto principal de estudio en este trabajo ha sido la carga
leñosa, el análisis de sedimentos no ha sido tratado en profundidad. Sin embargo es un
factor fundamental para entender la dinámica de los ríos de montaña (Richards y Lane,
1997; Gomi y Sidle, 2003; Cohen et al., 2010) como se ha explicado en la Introducción de
esta Memoria (apartado 1.1.1). El único indicador acerca de la dinámica del sedimento

utilizado en este trabajo (ver apartados 4.6 y 4.7) ha sido la capacidad de transporte o
diámetro crítico que el flujo es capaz de transportar, basado en los criterios de Shields
(1936). Sería pues conveniente obtener datos para incorporar este tipo de material en los
análisis.
Como se decía anteriormente, el objeto principal de estudio fue la carga leñosa. El

desarrollo de un modelo numérico implementado en el modelo hidrodinámico
bidimensional Iber ha permitido simular el transporte de detritos leñosos en ríos. Hasta el
momento los trabajos que incluían este tipo de material en el análisis de avenidas
empleaban la simulación hidráulica (1D o 2D) para obtener los parámetros físicos de la
inundación y después analizaban el transporte de la carga leñosa (Mazzorana et al., 2011;
Merten et al., 2010). El modelo desarrollado en este trabajo de investigación permite
realizar los cálculos simultáneamente de modo que la carga leñosa influye en la
hidrodinámica y viceversa. Además de las simplificaciones asumidas en el modelo, como
por ejemplo la forma de los detritos (cilindros), la mayor limitación en su aplicación directa
en ríos es la disponibilidad de datos observados que permitan validar o calibrar los
resultados. Para obtener este tipo de datos se han propuesto diferentes metodologías de
monitorización y seguimiento de material en el río. Por ejemplo, los trabajos llevados a
cabo por Percorari, Comiti, Mao y otros (2007, 2008) muestran el monitoreo de material
leñoso mediante la instalación de trasmisores para el seguimiento de este material en el río.
También los trabajos publicados por MacVicar y Piegay (2012) se centran en la
monitorización de detritos durante avenidas mediante la instalación de una videocámara
en una de las márgenes del río.
Si no se dispone de este tipo de observaciones es posible utilizar como datos de

entrada al modelo aquéllos que deriven de la construcción de escenarios. Si el objetivo es
analizar las consecuencias de un transporte repentino durante una avenida, estos escenarios
se pueden construir para estimar el volumen potencial de material leñoso que podría
llegar al río (como el caso mostrado en el apartado 4.4). La metodología propuesta en este
trabajo para estimar estos volúmenes se ha desarrollado en función de los datos disponibles
y las particularidades de la zona de estudio. Su aplicación en el caso de la cuenca del arroyo
Cabrera (apartado 4.6) ha puesto de manifiesto que puede proporcionar resultados útiles,
por ejemplo, para el diseño de infraestructuras como puentes o de diques de contención o
corrección forestal (Bradley et al., 2005). En cualquier caso, la generación de escenarios es
una potente herramienta de decisión empleada en diversos estudios (Cooke, 1991; Scholz y
Tietje, 2002). Esta perspectiva de análisis ha sido utilizada a lo largo de este trabajo de
investigación (apartados 4.4, 4.6 y 4.7), de forma similar a otros autores que también
proponían esta aproximación para el análisis de riesgos en zonas de montaña (Mazzorana et
al., 2009, 2010, 2011; Comiti, 2010). Los escenarios generados en este trabajo se definieron
siguiendo las propuestas de Godet (1986) de identificar el menor número de posibilidades

que puedan representar diversos estados incluyendo el denominado peor caso posible
(worstcase scenario). En el caso del trabajo presentado en el apartado 4.4, los escenarios
generados pueden clasificarse como de tipo formativo combinado con lógica difusa (fuzzy-
formative), que resulta en una composición cuantitativa/cualitativa basada en matrices de
impacto (Tietje, 2005). Mientras que, por otro lado, los escenarios creados en los apartados
4.6 y 4.7 pueden definirse como modelos (model scenario; Ruth y Hannon, 1997), basados
en caracterizar alguna variable desconocida dentro del sistema, en este caso el volumen y el
régimen de transporte del material leñoso. El objetivo final es obtener diferentes
posibilidades para evaluar situaciones probables o posibles (Meadows et al., 1974); en este
trabajo, relativas a la influencia del material leñoso en la peligrosidad y el riesgo por
avenidas.
La estimación del riesgo llevada a cabo en Arenas de San Pedro (apartado 4.7)
estuvo enfocada en la estimación probabilista de pérdidas potenciales asociadas a la avenida
de periodo de retorno 500 años, para analizar, por un lado las incertidumbres asociadas, y
por otro, cuantificar la influencia suponiendo además transporte de material leñoso.
Generalmente las evaluaciones de riesgo se realizan para diferentes caudales asociados a
distintos periodos de retorno de manera que al final se pueda hacer una estimación de las
denominadas pérdidas medias anuales (anual average damages; Meyer, 2007). También es
frecuente realizar estudios coste-beneficio cuando se quiere evaluar la eficacia de una
determinada medida de corrección o prevención frente a las avenidas (Tung, 2002; Zhu y
Lund, 2009). En cualquier caso, los análisis de riesgo siempre están sujetos a numerosas
fuentes de incertidumbre (Apel et al., 2004; Merz et al., 2010). Para tener en cuenta estas
incertidumbres Mazzorana y Fusch (2010) proponen una red de escenarios (derivada de los
trabajos de Scholz y Tietje, 2002) compuesta por diversas evaluaciones de los procesos
naturales (avenidas y flujos de derrubios), diferentes situaciones para los elementos
expuestos, y la vulnerabilidad de estos elementos, con el fin de obtener como resultado una
serie de evaluaciones de riesgo. En el caso de la generación de escenarios de procesos de
avenidas, estos autores contemplan la carga leñosa y generan las distintas situaciones
basadas en los trabajos de Mazzorana et al. (2009 y 2011) en los que resaltan las diversas
incertidumbres asociadas a este proceso.
Los resultados obtenidos en este trabajo permiten reducir y/o evaluar estas
incertidumbres relativas a la estimación del material que puede llegar a los ríos, al estudio
de su transporte en los ríos, su interferencia con estructuras como puentes y analizar su
influencia en la peligrosidad y riesgo por avenidas.

5.3. Futuras líneas de investigación
Siendo consciente de las limitaciones expuestas anteriormente con respecto a los

métodos y resultados obtenidos en este trabajo de investigación, éstas pueden abrir a su vez
nuevas líneas de investigación futuras que permitirían seguir avanzando en el conocimiento
de la dinámica de avenidas en zonas de montaña.
Por ejemplo, para completar el registro de avenidas puede ser posible emplear las
fuentes de datos geológicas, tal y como se explicaba en la introducción de esta Memoria,
aunque en este tipo de ambientes montañosos puede resultar difícil encontrar sedimentos
útiles en los estudios de paleoinundaciones, debido a la elevada capacidad de transporte, al
tamaño del sedimento, etc. Sin embargo, estudios realizados en ambientes de montaña
(Rico et al., 2001; Thordyncraft y Ruiz-Villanueva, 2010) demuestran que sí es posible
encontrarlos y emplearlos en la reconstrucción de avenidas. Si se diera el caso, entonces se
podrían combinar estas fuentes de datos con las utilizadas en este trabajo de investigación
(fuentes históricas y dendrogeomorfológicas).
También en el análisis de la generación de evidencias dendrogeomorfológicas es

necesario seguir profundizando, con el objetivo de entender mejor cuáles son los
mecanismos generadores y así utilizarlos de forma más efectiva en la reconstrucción de
avenidas. Aunque en este trabajo de investigación no han podido emplearse heridas o
descortezados para estimar la magnitud de avenidas, durante el desarrollo del mismo, en
diversas visitas de campo a diferentes ríos, sí se han observado. Así, se pudo apreciar la
estrecha relación que existe entre el material leñoso transportado durante la avenida y los
daños a la vegetación. En un caso concreto, no estudiado en detalle en el transcurso de este
trabajo, las acumulaciones de material en las bases de los árboles de ribera habrían
producido una sobrelevación del flujo en esa zona, y se podían observar diversas heridas en
estos árboles (figura 5.3A). Si estas heridas fueran utilizadas para la estimación de caudales
y no se tuviera en cuenta la presencia de este material y la sobrelevación que produjo, se
podría cometer una sobrestimación de la magnitud de la avenida que los generó. Sería pues
interesante analizar esta relación en la generación de descortezados para reducir las
incertidumbres en las estimaciones De forma similar Yanosky y Jarret (2002) asociaron la
pendiente del río con la relación altura del descortezado y altura de la lámina de agua
(figura 5.3B). Sin embargo, la presencia de material leñoso podría modificar esa relación.

CAPÍTULO /CHAPTER
C 5
FFigure 5.3: (A)

( Woodyy jam and sccarred trees during the 2008 floodd in Collegee Burn
Riverr (England).). (B) Scarreed tree in M
Merced Riverr (Josemite,, USA), thee injury heigght is
below the
t flood water
w level (Y
Yanosky and
nd Jarret, 20002; Jarret, 22007).
FFigura 5.3: (A)

( Acumuulaciones dee material leeñoso en la base
b de árbo boles de riberra que
presenttan heridas producidas
p s durante unna avenida ocurrida
o en
n 2008 en ell río Collegee Burn
(Inglate
terra). (B) La
L altura de las heridas oobservadas en los árbooles situadoss en el río Merced
M
(Josem
mite, Estadoos Unidos), se encuentrran por debbajo del niveel que alcanz
nzó la inunddación
(Ya
Yanosky y Jar
arret, 2002; Jarret,
J 20077).
En n relación al
a modelo desarrolladoo para simullar el transp porte de mmaterial leño oso en
ríos, see abren divversas líneass de investtigación. Prrincipalmen nte estaríann enfocadass en la
mejora de las capaccidades del modelo. Laa aplicación n en más ríos, de diversaa tipología (como
ríos braaided de grravas u otro os), y emplleando datoos observad dos de cam mpo, haría posible
p
corregirr y mejorar su funcion namiento. A Además es posible
p impplementar nnuevos algoritmos
que permitan sim mular piezaas de madeera con raaíces o ram mas. Siguieendo los trrabajos
desarrolllados por Braudrick
B y Grant (20000) presenttan una aprroximación consideran ndo los
detritoss con raíces como piezas cilíndric as unidas a un disco. ElE efecto dee las raíces supone
s
e extremo sobre el leccho del río, el área sum
que la ppieza está eleevada por ese mergida del tronco
t
disminuuye, lo que haría
h variar el balance dde fuerzas tal
t y como se representaa en la figurra 5.4.
A 382 TESIS DOCTO
Figu
gure 5.4: Schhematic andd body-force
ce diagrams of some off the
t componnents of the
he force
balance acting
a on a log
l with a rroot-wad (fr
from Braudr
drick and Grrant, 2000).
).
Figura 5.4:: Diagramass esquemátiicos del balaance de fuerrzas sobre uuna pieza dee madera
supooniendo éstaa como un cilindro
c y uun disco (ext
xtraído y trad
aducido de B Braudrick y Grant,
2000).
VIRGINIA
CAPÍTULO /CHAPTER
C 5
O
Otra capaciddad del mod delo que noo ha podidoo ser explorada en proffundidad durante
este trabbajo de inveestigación, ha
h sido la s imulación conjunta de
d hidrodinnámica, maaterial
leñoso y sedimentos. Las lim mitaciones ttemporales no permitiieron recabaar la inform
mación
indispen nsable paraa obtener los datos necesarios para la siimulación y validació ón del
transpoorte de seddimentos. Sin embarrgo, esta posibilidad
p abre una línea nueeva de
investiggación, no sólo
s en el esstudio de laas avenidas,, sino comppletando asíí el rompeccabezas
que form man los prinncipales commponentes modelizados de la dinámica fluviial (figura 5.5).
Figure 5.5:: Main com

mponents off the fluviall dynamics could
c be moodeled afterr this
esearch workk.
res
Figura 5.5:
5 Compoonentes prin incipales de la dinámicaa fluvial quee podrían seer
moodelizados tras
t los resul
ultados de esste trabajo de
d investigac
ación en fututuros trabajoos.
Esste modelo podría enttonces apliccarse en esttudios de diinámica fluuvial, restau

uración
fluvial y ecología.
A
Además, la metodología
m a utilizada ppodría replicarse para adaptar
a el m
modelo a otrro tipo
mo el caso dee hielo, por ejemplo (K
de mateeriales, com Kolerski, 20 011). En la eescasa biblio
ografía
que exisste sobre este tema se afirma
a que eel transportte de hielo durante inuundaciones puede
produciir el mismoo efecto qu ue la carga leñosa, obbstruyendo puentes y amplifican ndo los
efectos de la inunddación.
A 384 TESIS DOCTO
5.4. Conclusiones
La conclusión general derivada de este trabajo de investigación es que en cuencas

forestadas de montaña la limitada disponibilidad de datos hace necesaria la combinación de
fuentes de datos de diversa naturaleza, y la reconstrucción de eventos pasados requiere la
utilización conjunta de múltiples métodos. Además, la influencia de la carga leñosa en el
comportamiento hidrodinámico de los ríos no puede ser obviada y debe ser incorporada en
los análisis de peligrosidad y riesgo por avenidas.
Asimismo, se derivan de los diversos trabajos realizados y los resultados obtenidos

varias conclusiones específicas:
 La aplicación de técnicas dendrogeomorfológicas ha resultado una potente

herramienta en la datación y la obtención de cronologías de avenidas pasadas. Las
diversas anomalías de crecimiento, junto a otros parámetros como el porcentaje de
árboles afectados o la distribución de los mismos a lo largo del cauce, pueden ser
cuantificadas y asignarles unos pesos. De esta manera se pueden caracterizar los
eventos de una forma objetiva mediante la aplicación de técnicas estadísticas.
 La relación encontrada entre las evidencias externas que muestran los árboles y la
posición geomorfológica que ocupan éstos en el cauce puede ser de utilidad para
optimizar los muestreos, focalizándolos en aquellos árboles que aporten mayor
información.
 Estas fuentes de datos botánicas también proporcionan información acerca de la

dinámica del río, y pueden resultar de utilidad en la interpretación de los mecanismos
de transporte de material sólido (detritos leñosos o sedimentos).
 La información recopilada en la documentación consultada ha permitido observar

una estacionalidad en la ocurrencia de avenidas en la zona de estudio. Esta
estacionalidad está condicionada a los mecanismos meteorológicos generadores de las
avenidas. Así es posible afirmar que la mayoría de eventos ocurridos en la zona de
estudio han tenido lugar en otoño-invierno y se pueden relacionar con
perturbaciones frontales de origen atlántico. Sin embargo, son los eventos ocurridos
en verano (asociados a núcleos convectivos) los que han tenido relacionados el mayor
número de víctimas mortales.

 La incorporación en el análisis de frecuencia de los eventos reconstruidos mediante

métodos indirectos junto con los datos instrumentales, ha demostrado que reduce los
intervalos de confianza en las estimaciones de los cuantiles. Esto significa una
reducción en la incertidumbre. Aunque también se ha demostrado que según sean
incorporados estos datos en el análisis, los cuantiles resultantes pueden variar. Esta
variabilidad deberá ser tenida en cuenta cuando estos datos sean utilizados en
posteriores análisis de riesgo.
 La reconstrucción del evento de 1997 ha demostrado que las estimaciones indirectas

de eventos de este tipo deben abordarse desde distintas perspectivas (ecuaciones
empíricas, simulación hidráulica e hidrológica, etc.) para poder estimar y reducir las
incertidumbres. Además, ha puesto de manifiesto la importancia que puede tener la
carga leñosa en las consecuencias de la inundación.
 La metodología empleada para establecer las curvas calado/obstrucción para el caso

del puente situado en la colonia de Venero Claro, es perfectamente extrapolable a
cualquier otra infraestructura. Además los comportamientos hidráulicos
interpretados en las tres regiones definidas por estas curvas serán similares en otros
puentes de semejantes características.
 Debido a los efectos que produce la carga leñosa, se observó que las consecuencias de
una avenida pueden modificarse. Esto nos ha llevado a definir el nuevo concepto de
periodo de retorno equivalente, en este caso aplicado a los procesos de obstrucción
producidos por el transporte y deposito de material leñoso, pero que podría ser de
aplicación para otros procesos que modifiquen la intensidad de la avenida.
 La metodología basada en sistemas de información geográfica para estudiar los

procesos de incorporación del material leñoso y delimitar las áreas contribuyentes,
permitiría incorporar otros procesos al análisis. Esta metodología es además
fácilmente aplicable a otras regiones, y, como se ha comprobado, permite obtener
unos órdenes de magnitud de material leñoso potencialmente disponible. Los
indicadores de campo establecidos para estudiar la dinámica de la carga leñosa
permiten extraer información valiosa sobre su incorporación y transporte en el río.
 El desarrollo del modelo para simular el transporte de material leñoso en ríos es una
aportación importante ya que no existía hasta el momento ninguna herramienta
similar. La aplicación de este modelo a los casos de estudio ha puesto de manifiesto su
viabilidad y su potencial, aunque se hace necesaria la obtención de datos de campo
para su adecuada validación. Sin disponer de estos datos empíricos, se presenta como

alternativa la generación de escenarios, herramienta que ha demostrado ser de gran

utilidad en todos los análisis realizados.
 El análisis de riesgos basado en una perspectiva probabilista permite incorporar en el

estudio las diferentes fuentes de incertidumbres, a la vez que debido a la carencia de
datos de calibración posibilita obtener unos resultados fiables.
 Las metodología propuestas, tanto de combinación de fuentes de datos, como para

incorporar la carga leñosa en los estudios de riesgos de avenidas suponen una mejora
en los análisis de este tipo de procesos, particularmente en cuencas forestadas de
montaña.

Conclusions
The general conclusion drawn from this research is that the limited availability of
data in forested mountain river basins means that different types of source data need to be
integrated, and various methods must be combined to reconstruct past events. The
influence of the woody load on the hydrodynamic behaviour of rivers cannot be ignored
and must also be included in flash flood hazard and risk analysis.
Various specific conclusions can also be made from the research carried out and the
results obtained:
 Dendrogeomorphological techniques have shown to be a powerful tool for dating

and obtaining the chronology of past flash flood events. Various growth disturbances
and other parameters, including percentage of trees affected and their distribution
along the stream bed, may be quantified and assigned weighting factors. This allows
to characterize events objectively by applying statistical techniques.
 The relationship found between the external evidence obtained from the trees and
their geomorphological position within the stream bed can be used to optimize
sampling procedures, by focusing on the trees which provide the most information.
 These botanical data sources also provide information on river dynamics and can be
used to interpret transport mechanisms for solid material (wood or sediment).
 The information compiled from the documentation consulted shows the seasonal
nature of the flash floods occurring in the study area. This seasonal distribution is
conditioned by the meteorological mechanisms which generate the flash floods. We
are thus able to confirm that most events occur in the study area in autumn/winter
and are related to Atlantic frontal disturbances. However, the events occurring in
summer (associated with convective storms) are related to the highest death tolls.
 Including events reconstructed by indirect methods as well as instrument data in the

frequency analysis has been shown to reduce confidence intervals in quantile
estimates. This means reduced uncertainty. However, it has also been shown that
when these data are included in the analysis, the resulting quantiles may vary. This
variability should be taken into consideration when these data are used in subsequent
risk analyses.
 Reconstruction of the 1997 event shows that indirect estimates of this type of events
should be approached from different viewpoints (empirical equations, hydraulic and

hydrological simulations, etc.) to estimate and reduce uncertainty. It also highlights

the impact of the woody load on the consequences of the flooding.
 The methodology applied for obtaining the clogging curves for the bridge in the
Venero Claro area can easily be extrapolated to any other infrastructure. The
hydraulic behaviour interpreted in the three regions defined by these curves will also
be similar in other bridges with the same characteristics.
 Due to the effects of the woody load, it was observed that the impact of a flash flood
may be modified. This has led us to define a new concept of the equivalent return
period, in this case applied to the obstruction processes resulting from the transport
and deposition of woody material, but which could also be applied to other processes
which alter the flash flood intensity.
 The GIS based methodology applied for the study of the wood entrainment
processes would allow other processes to be included in the analysis. This
methodology is easy to apply in other areas and, as is shown, can obtain the orders of
magnitude of the potentially available woody material. The field indicators used to
study the woody load dynamics also allow valuable information to be extracted on its
entrainment and in-river transport.
 The development of the model simulating the transport of woody material in rivers
is an important contribution, as no similar tool is available to date. Applying this
model to the case studies highlights its viability and potential, although field data
must be obtained to validate it appropriately. Even if this empirical data is not
available it is still an alternative tool for generating scenarios, which has proved to be
very useful in all the analyses carried out.
 Risk analysis from a probabilistic viewpoint allowed the inclusion of different sources
of uncertainty in this research, and obtained reliable results even though calibration
data was not available.
 The proposed methodologies, both for combining data sources and for including the
woody load in flash flood risk assessment, improve the analysis of this type of process,
particularly in forested mountain basins.



6. REFERENCIAS BIBLIOGRÁFICAS,
LISTA DE FIGURAS Y TABLAS




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LISTA DE FIGURAS Y TABLAS / LIST OF FIGURES AND

TABLES
CAPÍTULO/CHAPTER 1:
Figure 1.1: Global Topography and Bathymetry. Mountain areas colored in brown.
(Wavemetrics, 2012).Topografía y batimetría mundial. En colores marrones las zona
de montaña. Longitud y latitud en grados (Wavemetrics, 2012).
Figure 1.2: Stylized and simplified sketch of the three primary zones of a mountain
drainage basin based on hydrogeomorphic processes. Esquema idealizado y
simplificado de las diferentes zonas en que puede dividirse una cuenca hidrológica de
montaña en función de los procesos hidrogeomorfológicos.
Figure 1.3: Differences in disturbance processes among colluvial. confined alluvial, and
unconfined alluvial channels in mountain drainage basins (based on Montgomery
and Buffington, 1997). Procesos y morfologías asociadas a los diferentes canales de
una cuenca de montaña: canales coluviales, confinados aluviales y aluviales no
confinados (Tomado y traducido de Montgomery y Buffington, 1997).
Figure 1.4: Idealized long profile from hillslopes and unchanneled hollows downslope
through the channel network showing the general distribution of alluvial channel
types and controls on channel processes in mountain drainage basins (modified from
Montgomery and Buffington, 1997). Red box shows the type of channels studied in
this work. Clasificación de diferentes morfologías de ríos en función del sustrato y
distribución espacial en la cuenca (modificado y traducido de Montgomery y
Buffington, 1997). El cuadro rojo indica los tipos estudiado en este trabajo.
Figure 1.5: Hypothesized relative influence of wood on the world’s rivers throughout
geologic time (from Montgomery et al., 2003). Influencia relativa (hipotética) de la
presencia de material leñoso en los ríos a lo largo del tiempo geológico (Tomado y
traducido de Montgomery et al., 2003).
Figure 1.6. (A) Upstream view of Santa María stream crossing Canturral area in La Adrada
(Ávila, Gredos mountain range, Spain, January 2012). The boulder size is decimetre.
Vista hacia aguas arriba de la Garganta Santa María en La Adrada a su paso por la
urbanización Canturral (Ávila, Sierra de Gredos, enero 2012). El tamaño de los
bloques es decimétrico.

Figure 1.6: (B) Woody jam with tilted trees in the flow direction of the Teverga River in
Tuñón (Asturias, Picos de Europa mountain range, October 2011). Acumulación de
material leñoso entre árboles inclinados en la dirección de la corriente en el río
Teverga en las cercanías de Tuñón (Asturias, Picos de Europa, octubre 2011).
Figure 1.6: (C) Pull up trees in a plane bed reach of the College Burn River in the North of
NewCastle (England, November 2009). Árboles arrancados en la dirección de la
corriente en un tramo de lecho plano del río College Burn al Norte de NewCastle
(Inglaterra, noviembre de 2009).
Figure 1.6: (D) Wood and blocks and boulders in the Kaligandaki River in the Annapurna
region (Nepal, Hymalaya, February 2012). Restos de árboles entre los cantos y
bloques en un tramo del río Kaligandaki en la región de los Annapurna (Nepal,
Himalaya, febrero 2012).
Figure 1.7: Pattern of flood disposition in relation to altitude (from Weingartner et al.,
2003). Influencia de determinados factores en la generación de inundaciones en
función de la altitud (Tomado y traducido de Weingartner et al., 2003).
Figure 1.8: Headwaters of the Tajo River after an important flood, large quantities of wood
were mobilized and deposited in jams (1920-30´). Picture taken from the collection
of Complutense University of Madrid. Río Tajo en cabecera, tras una crecida
importante, que movilizó grandes cantidades de madera y la colocó formando una
represa (años 1920-30).Fotografía de la colección fotográfica histórica del
Departamento de Geodinámica de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid.
Figure 1.9: Sediment and wood deposits after the 1996 flash flood in the Arás stream in
Biescas (Spain), Las Nieves Camp Site. 86 people died (picture taken by Carlos
Sancho and courtesy of Virginia Rubio). Depósito de sedimentos y de madera en el
barranco de Arás en Biescas, Camping Las Nieves, tras la avenida de 1996.
Fallecieron 86 personas (fotografía de Carlos Sancho y cedida por Virginia Rubio).
CAPÍTULO/CHAPTER 2
Figure 2.1: Methodological flowchart. Numbers correspond with sections in this chapter.
Esquema metodológico seguido a lo largo del trabajo de investigación. Los números
se corresponden con los nueve apartados de este capítulo.

Figure 2.2: Physiographic units delineation in one of the study sites. Ejemplo de
delimitación de unidades fisiográficas homogéneas en el análisis geomorfológico en
una de las zonas de estudio.
Figure 2.3: (a) Main types of morphometric indices for the characterization of the shape,
size and height of the catchment basin and which are useful in flood hydrology; (b)
Morphometric parameters of the drainage network which affect flood hydrology.
(Taken from Díez-Herrero , 2009). Índices morfométricos para la caracterización de
la forma, el tamaño o la altura de la cuenca hidrográfica, útiles en hidrología de
avenidas; (b) Parámetros morfométricos de la red de drenaje con incidencia en
hidrología de avenidas. (Extraído de Díez-Herrero , 2008).
Figure 2.4: (a) Unit bars features found in gravel-bed channels; (b) Bar types and different
parts. cb: head bar; lb: tail bar; cp: main channel; cs: secondary channel; cl: lateral
channel. (From Church and Jones, 1982 and Ramos and Friend, 1982). Tipos de
barras en sistemas aluviales de gravas; (b) Esquema de tipos de barras y sus zonas. cb:
cabeza, lb: cola de barra; cp: canal principal o exterior; cs: canal secundario o interior;
cl: canales laterales. (Extraído de Church y Jones, 1982 y Ramos y Friend, 1982).
Figure 2.5: Dendrogeomorphological evidence useful in the study of torrential floods. 1.)
“candelabrum” growths; 2) Tilted with feet tipped over; 3) Decapitated; 4) Impacted
by sediment load; 5) Branches torn off; 6) Grazing by other falling boles; 7) Erosion
on the trunk; 8) Trunk bends and angles; 9) Sudden narrowing of trunk; 10)
Bifurcations; 11) Bends and angles in branches; 12) Regrowth from buried trunks;
13) Exposed roots with stripped bark and eroded surface; 14) Roots aloft without
contact with substratum; 15) New roots from buried trunks. (Díez-Herrero , 2009
and 2012). Tipologías de los principales indicios dendrogeomorfológicos
macroscópicos individuales útiles en el estudio de las avenidas torrenciales. 1)
Crecimientos en candelabro; 2) Inclinados y pies volcados; 3) Decapitados; 4)
Impactos por la carga sólida; 5) Arranques de ramas; 6) Rozamientos por caídas de
otros fustes; 7) Erosiones en el tronco; 8) Codos y ángulos del fuste; 9)
Estrechamientos bruscos del fuste; 10) Bifurcaciones; 11) Codos y ángulos en las
ramas; 12) Rebrotes desde troncos enterrados; 13) Raíces expuestas con
descortezados y con erosiones; 14) Raíces flotantes sin contacto con el substrato; 15)
Nuevas raíces desde troncos enterrados. (Díez-Herrero , 2008 y 2012).
Figure 2.6: Field work: (a) Tree sampling; (b) Using of increment borer; (c) obtained
samples; (d) scarred tree and stumps; (e) obtained cross-sections. Tareas de campo:
(a) muestreo de ejemplares; (b) uso de la barrena; (c) testigos obtenidos en el
muestreo; (d) Descortezados y tocones dejados por las tareas de tala de la
Confederación Hidrográfica del Tajo; (e) secciones completas.

Figure 2.7: Laboratory analysis: (a) samples preparation; (b) tree ring width measurements;
(c) tree-ring width curves; (d) samples analysis; (e) disk showing several external and
internal injuries; (f) sample showing reaction wood. Trabajo de laboratorio: (a)
preparación de muestras; (b) análisis y medida de anchura de anillos de crecimiento;
(c) curvas de crecimiento obtenidas en el análisis; (d) examen visual de secciones; (e)
sección con diversas heridas externas e internas; (f) muestra con madera de reacción.
Figure 2.8: (a) Example of a news item featuring a historical flood in the study site (taken
from ABC newspaper); (b) 1982 flood plaque placed on a memorial statue in Luis
Manuel Lopez camp site in memorian of a fatality. Ejemplo de noticia en la que se
describe un evento de avenida en la zona de estudio (extraído del periódico ABC).
(b) placa ubicada sobre un busto conmemorativo en el camping Luis Manuel López
en recuerdo a una víctima de una avenida en 1982.
Figure 2.9: Variogram and variogram model (modified from Guardiola, 2009). Variograma
y modelo de variograma (modificado y traducido de Guardiola, 2009).
Figure 2.10: Instrumental network installed and applied in the study sites; (a) rain gauges;
(b) stream gauges; (c) measuring flow velocity. Instrumentación instalada y utilizada
en varios puntos de la región de estudio; (a) pluviógrafos de cazoletas; (b)
limnímetros de presión; (c) medida de velocidad del flujo con molinete.
Figure 2.11: Evidence and marks found and analysed in one of the study sites. (picture
taken by Andrés Díez). Marcas y evidencias encontradas y analizadas en una de las
zonas de estudio (fotografía de Andrés Díez).
Figure 2.12: Places where deposits and markings useful for palaeohydrological purposes are
often found in mountain basins (based on Jarret , 2002, and Benito and
Thorndycraft, 2004).HWM means high water mark. Esquema ilustrativo de los
depósitos, marcas y evidencias de utilidad paleohidrológica en zonas de montaña
(adaptado de Jarret , 2002 y Benito y Thorndycraft, 2004).HWM significa marca de
aguas altas.
Figure 2.13: Topographical survey in Arenal River: (a) Total station: (b) GPS.
Levantamiento topográfico en el Río Arenal: (a) estación total (b) GPS.
Figure 2.14: (a) Digital elevation model of the Arenal River crossing Arenas de San Pedro
village; (b) Calculation mesh created for Cabrera stream. Modelo digital d
elevaciones del río Arenal a su paso por Arenas de San Pedro. (b) Malla de cálculo
generada para un tramo del arroyo Cabrera.

Figure 2.15: (a) Illustration of variables used for mass balance of wood; (b) Potential tree
fall area showing total tree height, Ht; effective tree height, He; and total arc
distance, 2π He; (c) Schematic illustrating the probability of woody debris falling
into a stream from a tree located (A) at the edge of the stream, (B) at a distance less
than the effective tree height, and (C) at a distance greater than the effective tree
height. (from Robison and Beschta 1990; Martin and Benda, 2001) Esquema de las
variables que se tienen en cuenta en los procesos de incorporación de madera a los
cauces; (b) área potencial de caída de un individuo; (c) ilustración esquemática de la
probabilidad de que una pieza de madera llegue al cauce en función de su
localización: (A) en el banco de orilla; (B) a una distancia menor que su altura
efectiva; (C) a una distancia mayor. (tomado y traducido de Robison y Beschta 1990;
Martin y Benda, 2001).
balance acting on a log (from Braudrick and Grant, 2000). Diagramas en los que se
muestra de forma esquemática algunas de las fuerzas involucradas en el inicio de
movimiento de una pieza de madera (tomado y traducido de Braudrick y Grant,
2000).
Figure 2.17: Transport regimes based on wood density (ρw), flow density (ρ), water depth
(h) and log diameter (Dw). A, B and D, rolling or sliding; C, floating. Regímenes de
transporte en función de la densidad de la madera (ρw), la densidad del flujo (ρ), el
calado (h) y el diámetro de la pieza de madera (Dw). A, B y D, rodadura o arrastre; C,
flotación.
Figure 2.18:(a) Flume at the FLUMEN Institute (UPC); (b) water depth measurements
with limnimetre; (c) Flow velocity 3D field using a microacoustic Doppler
Velocimeter; (d) Round white beech wooden dowels used. Canal de experimentación
del Instituto FLUMEN (UPC); (b) medida de calados con limnímetro; (c) medida
del campo 3D de velocidad del flujo con un velocímetro microacústico Doppler; (d)
piezas de madera utilizadas.
Figure 2.19: Uncertainty bounds in the frequency analysis (1) and hydraulic modeling (2).
Limites de incertidumbre en el análisis de frecuencia (1) y en la modelización
hidráulica (2).
Figure 2.20: Illustration of the terms flood hazard, vulnerability and risk (from Merz and
Thieken, 2004) Esquema ilustrativo de los términos peligrosidad, vulnerabilidad y
riesgo por inundación (tomado y traducido de Merz y Thieken, 2004).

Figure 2.21: Illustration of the risk analysis process and the configuration of scenarios with
large wood. Esquema ilustrativo del proceso seguido en el análisis de riesgo y la
generación de escenarios con y sin carga leñosa.
Table 2.1: Dendrogeomorphic evidence classification (Díez-Herrero, 2009 and 2012)

Clasificación de evidencias dendrogeomorfológicas externas (tomado de Díez-
Herrero , 2008 y 2012)
CAPÍTULO/CHAPTER 3
Figure 3.1: Sierra de Gredos (Gredos mountain range) location. Localización de la Sierra de
Gredos
Figure 3.2: Geological and structural sketch of the Sierra de Gredos and surroundings
(from Tectonic and geologic map of Spain 1:200000 by IGME). Esquema geológico-
estructural de la Sierra de Gredos y alrededores. (tomado y traducido del Mapa
Tectónico de España 1:200000 del IGME).
Figure 3.3 (a): Uppermost surface in Los Galayos, Guisando, Ávila. Superficie de cumbres
formada por galayares en la zona de Los Galayos, Guisando, Ávila.
Figure 3.3 (b): High and medium steep slopes,;view from road N-502 in the Mombeltrán
area. Laderas escarpadas y débilmente escarpadas; vista de la zona de Mombeltrán
desde la carretera N-502.
Figure 3.3 (c): Granitic forms in the pathway from San Esteban del Valle to Cuevas del
Valle. Morfologías graníticas en el camino de San Esteban del Valle a Cuevas del
Valle.
Figure 3.3 (d): Fluvial system of the Arenal River crossing Arenas de San Pedro village.
Sistema fluvial del río Arenal a su paso por Arenas de San Pedro.
Figure 3.4: Köppen-Geiger Climate Classification for the Iberian Peninsula (AEMET,
2011). Clasificación climática de Köppen-Geiger en la península Ibérica (AEMET,
2011).
Figure 3.5: Average total annual precipitation for the Iberian Peninsula. (AEMET, 2011).
Precipitación media anual de la península Ibérica (AEMET, 2011).
Figure 3.6: 100-years return period of maximum daily precipitation in Spain (Libro Blanco
del Agua, MAGRAMA, 2000). Mapa de lluvias máximas diarias en la España

Peninsular para un periodo de retorno de 100 años (Libro Blanco del Agua,
MAGRAMA, 2000).
Figure 3.7: Pinus pinaster in Los Galayos (Guisando). Pinus pinaster en la zona de Los
Galayos (Guisando).
Figure 3.8: Cytisus scrubs in the high altitude range (Sierra del Valle, Venero Claro,
Navaluenga). Matorrales de Cytisus en la zona de alta montaña (Sierra del Valle,
Venero Claro, Navaluenga).
Figure 3.9: Riparian forest in the Arenal River crossing Arenas de San Pedro. Bosque de
ribera en el río Arenal a su paso por Arenas de San Pedro.
Figure 3.10: Schematic vegetation catena of two cross sections of the Sierra de Gredos (up)
western section; (down) eastern section. (Adapted from Génova , 2009). Catenas
esquemáticas de la vegetación de la Sierra de Gredos en dos cortes correspondientes al
sector oeste (arriba) y este (abajo) de la Sierra de Gredos (adaptado de Génova ,
2009).
Figure 3.11: Main predominant flood types: 1, flash floods; 2, torrential floods; 3, flooding
of big rivers; and 4, flooding of endorheic areas (from Díez-Herrero, 2009).
Principales tipologías de inundaciones: 1, avenidas súbitas; 2, avenidas torrenciales; 3,
crecidas en grandes ríos; y 4, anegamiento de zonas endorreicas (extraído de Díez-
Herrero , 2008).
Figure 3.12: Studied basins and rain gauge and stream gauge networks in the region.
Subcuencas estudiadas y localización de la red de estaciones de aforos y pluviómetros
de la zona.
CAPÍTULO/CHAPTER 4.1
Figure 1. (A) Location of the study area in the Gredos Mountain Range (Spanish Central
System); (B) overview of the Pelayo River catchment and the study site of this
analysis; (C) the Pelayo River at Guisando village during normal conditions and (D)
during the flash flood event in December 2008 (picture of 2008 flash flood event,
courtesy of Gloria Suarez García, used with permission).
Figure 2. Flow diagram illustrating the different analysis methods applied, from the data
sources to the results.

Figure 3. Predominant dendrogeomorphic macro-evidence in trees affected by flash floods

and associated responses in tree-ring width and cell structure: (A/D) root exposure;
(B) sheared off tree and candelabra growth; (C) stem tilting; (B/C) injuries.
Figure 4. External evidence of flash flood activity in trees growing along the Pelayo River:
(A) abrasion scars; (B) bark erosion; (C) stem tilting; (D) stem burial; (E) floating
roots; (F) exposed roots. The blue arrows indicate the flow direction.
Figure 5. Geomorphological mapping of the upper part of the study reach. The legend
shows the classification of units and elements.
Figure 6. Relation between the energy of the external evidence and the geomorphic sides.
Ball size represents the percentage of trees showing a specific disturbance located in a
specific geomorphic side related to the total number of trees showing that
disturbance. The legend may be checked in Table 5.
Figure 7. Age structure of the sampled trees in the torrent. Left: upper sector of the study
reach. Right: lower sector.
Figure 8. Spatial distribution of living and damaged trees of four dated events.
Table 1 Morphometric characteristics of the catchment and the study reach
Table 2: Weights used for the quantification of different growth disturbances with
different intensitiesa
Table 3: Types of gravel bars and area (absolute and relative) in the study reach
Table 5: Trees showing external disturbances and located in different geomorphic settingsa
Table 6: Absolute and relative number of growth disturbances observed in the 98 P.

pinaster trees
Table 7: Calendar year, damaged trees, living trees, percentage of damaged trees, weight
values for the detected growth disturbances, weight for the spatial distribution along
the torrent, and the calculated coefficient of confidence.
Figure 1: Location of the four basins analyzed.
Figure 2: Methodological flowchart of the study.

Figure 3: Regional flood event chronology based on documentary sources and tree ring
data from the Pelayo and Arenal Rivers.
Figure 4: Seasonality of flash flood events and possible triggering conditions.
Figure 5: Fitted GEV distributions: (a) using the instrumental records since 1973; (b) the
instrumental records and the 1936 estimates including uncertainty (h=70, X0=300).
Figure 6: Fitted GEV distributions based on instrumental data and (a) including the four
largest historical events (i.e. the highest magnitude from all estimates) with
uncertainty; instrumental records and (b) all estimates with uncertainty based on
historical records.
Figure 7: Fitted GEV distributions for the Pelayo River at Guisando (A and B) and the
Arenal River at Arenas de San Pedro village (C and D), with discharge estimates
treated as instrumental records (A and C) and as instrumental records with the
exception of the 4 (5) largest events which were considered historical events with
uncertainty (B and D).
Figure 8: (A) Regional gauged data set; (B) regional including the whole set of estimated
event discharges.
Figure 9: Catalogue of maximum observed floods in Spain (AHIS, 2004) and estimates of
the 1936 flood in the study region (four catchments analyzed). The black line
represents the regional envelope curve (REC) of the AHIS database.
Figure 10: (A and C) Discharge for different return periods for all FFA and RFFA tests in
the ungauged basins. μ1 and σ1 are mean and standard deviation for each return
period computing all tests, μ2 and σ2 are mean and standard deviation for at-site tests
and CAUMAX but without RFFA (see B and D).
Table 1: Main morphometric characteristics of the four basins analyzed in this study. Note
the existence of an automatic hydrological information system (AHIS) station for
the Arenal River and of a stream gauge at Candeleda for the Santa Maria River
(located in Figure 1).
Table 2: Discharge estimates (mean and standard deviation) for the four study sites (units
are in m3 s–1). No data was available for cells given in grey.
Table 3: Estimation of discharge quantiles’ maximum likelihood Q(ML) corresponding to

return periods T= 10, 50, 100 and 500 years. CI0.05 (CI0.95) is the 5% (95%)
confidence limit of the estimates Q(ML), ΔCI = CI0.95- CI0.05. Grey highlights the
lowest ΔCI and ΔCI/Qt values.

Table 4: Estimation of the discharge quantiles Q(ML) for Arenal River at AHIS station
corresponding to the return periods T = 10, 50, 100, 500. CI0.05 (CI0.95) is the 5%
(95%) confidence limit of the estimates Q(ML), ΔCI = CI0.95- CI0.05. Grey highlights
the lowest ΔCI and ΔCI/Qt values.
Figure 1: (A) Location of the study site within the Spanish Central System. (B) Drainage
basin to the bridge section. The Arroyo Cabrera watershed has been monitored since
2004, with 6 rain gauges and 1 stream gauge installed (shown on map). (C) Detail of
the study area, with main reaches described in the text. The study site (Reach 5) is
marked in red.
Figure 2: Images taken the day after the 1997 event. Photos correspond to Reach 5 in
Figure1.
Figure 3: (A) Clogging curves: water depth in the bridge section represented on the Y-axis,
and the reduced area in the hydraulic radius in percentage on the X-axis. (B) Three
types of behaviour can be differentiated in the curves: LT, CT and UT (explained in
the text).
Figure 4: Results of the hydraulic simulation (123 m3 s-1 peak discharge). Longitudinal
sections of the bridge reach with obstruction in the bridge (A) and without
obstruction (B). (C) Bridge sketch.
Figure 5: Rating curve for the bridge section with stream gauge installed since 2004.
Figure 6: Water depth for the estimated discharge of the 1997 flash flood, (A) without any
obstruction at the bridge, (B) taking into account the LWD and obstruction at the
bridge, (C) water surface with LWD (in red) and without LWD (blue). Gas deposits
and camping site are shown on the maps.
Figure 7: Flood frequency analysis. Continuous black line shows frequency distribution of
CEDEX data. Dotted grey lines are the different adjustments using other frequency
distributions; continuous grey line is the mean of these and the dashed area shows
the confidence intervals (5 and 95%).
Figure 8: Equivalent return period. Curve representing the effect of wood clogging in
critical sections in flood hazard analysis. The broken red line is the estimated return
period for the 1997 event based on the recorded short data series; the continuous

blue line is the return period provided by CEDEX. The dotted black line is the mean
and the grey shading shows the uncertainty area.
Figure 9: Experimental variograms for DEM and precipitation. Black line is the
exponential model applied. Numbers over squares are data pairs for precipitation
data (for DEM variogram more than 1000 pairs were used).
Figure 10: Example of stochastic realization which fulfilled the conditions and so is reliable
for use in hydrological simulation. Daily registered data is placed over the station
(blue squares).
Figure 11: Ratio between a given volume of total precipitation in the catchment of given
duration (12 h) and the discharge range generated. Red dots are storm events from
2004-2011 correlated with observed discharges. Black triangles and grey squares are
design storms and corresponding simulated discharges.
Table 1: Main physical characteristics of the Arroyo Cabrera catchment and reach studied
Table 2: Summary of methods used in the hydrometeorological reconstruction
Figure 1: The three main wood recruitment processes on a catchment scale studied in this
analysis: (Ls) landslides; (Ft) fluvial transport during floods; (Be) stream bank
erosion.
Figure 2: General methodology flowchart
Figure 3: Probability (in percentage) that wood will be recruited from the hillslopes based
on connectivity to the channel.
Figure 4: Probability in percentage of wood recruited within the fluvial corridor based on
flood frequency, flood severity and stream bank erosion capacity.
Figure 5: Direct and indirect wood recruitment and delivery evidence can be used in the
field work to interpret LWD dynamics. HWM: high water marks, PSI: palaeostage
indicators.
Figure 6: Location of the study site
Figure 7: Land use and forested canopy cover of the study region.

Figure 8: Vegetation clasification based on the resistance to be recruited, and pie chart with
areas.
Figure 9: Number of potentially recruitable trees for the selected 14 basins for (A) Scenario
1, (B) Scenario 2, (C) Scenario 3.
Figure 10: Dendograms of hierarchical clustering using Ward's method. Dendograms for
(A) Scenario 1. (B) Scenario 2. (C) Scenario 3.
Figure 11: (A, B, C) Graphs of a correspondence analysis for each scenario. Basin: basin
area; Veg_Area: forested area; Lnd: landslide-prone area: H_Lnd: high severity
landslide-prone area; Ft: flood- and bank erosion-prone area; H_Ft: high severity
flood-prone area; H_Be: high severity bank erosion-prone area.
Figure 12: Model sensitivity analysis. Graph shows landslide-prone area reduction (%) and
recruitable trees reduction (%).
Table 1: Selected basins and main characteristics.
Table 2: Defined forested areas, areas prone to landslides, floods and bank erosion for
selected basins. Percentages indicate the ratios between the total forested area and the
delineated area defined in the previous column.
Table 3: Results of potentially recruitable trees obtained for the selected basins. SC1:
Scenario 1; SC2: Scenario 2; SC3: Scenario 3 and percentage of total.
Table 4: Summary of field observations in the selected basins: YES (with shading)=
observed: NO = not observed. In bold : Group 1 and 2 for Scenarios 1 and 2, and
group 2 for Scenario 3. *See comments.
Figure1: Schematic and body-force diagram of the force balance components acting on a
piece of wood.
Figure2: Cross section of a piece of wood in a stream in different conditions. (A): Log
density greater than water density, and water depth lower than log diameter. (B): Log
density greater than water density, and water depth higher than log diameter (C):
Log density lower than or equal to water density, and water depth higher than or
equal to log diameter. (D): Log density lower than or equal to water density, and

water depth lower than log diameter. Log diameter (Dw), water depth (h), submerged
log area (Asub) and submerged log diameter (y).
Figure 3: Schematic illustrations of log interactions with each other and with the river
banks. (A) In time interval 1, one piece of wood is moving in the flow direction and
meets another piece; they collide in time interval 2 and after the collision they
continue moving with different velocities. (B) Part of the log is out of the river (dry
area). (C) Log hits the bank and slides parallel to it before being reincorporated into
the flow. (D) Log hits the bank and bounces off. Different time steps are represented
as t1, t2 and t3,; α is the incidence angle.
Figure 4: Sketch illustrating the influence of woody debris (deposits or individual logs) on
hydrodynamics.
Figure 5: Flume geometric configurations. Geometry numbers refer to Table 1.
Figure 6: (A) Measurement points over velocity simulation of geometry 1, with flow from
left to right. (B) Velocity recorded with the Vectrino and simulated by the model for
the flume midpoint.(C) Velocity recorded with the Vectrino and simulated by the
model for the flume right side. (D) Velocity recorded with the Vectrino and
simulated by the model for the flume left side.
Figure 7: Numerical model results (geometry 3): three logs placed with different
orientations (on the left) rotated to a more stable hydrodynamic position, parallel to
the flow direction. Log trajectories are shown as black lines. Flow direction left to
right.
Figure 8: (A and B) Log (mass centre) trajectory in geometry 1 observed and simulated
with kinematic and dynamic methods (background is a flume image). (C) Log (mass
centre) location at each time step, observed (recorded and post-processed) and
simulated (calculated by the numerical model; K: kinematic and D: dynamic) with
turbulence (k-e method). (D) Absolute error in log position coordinates (meters);
(E) Squared error in log coordinates.
Figure 9: Flow (V_flow) and woody log (mass centre; V_log) velocity components (x and
y) simulated by the numerical model (A: kinematic and B: dynamic methods) with
turbulence. Without turbulence flow velocity and log velocity are equal.
Figure 10: Numerical model results of geometry 1: water depth, flow velocity (module),
Froude number and turbulence viscosity are shown together with log trajectory
(black lines). Flow direction left to right.

Figure 11: Log (mass centre) trajectory in Geometry 1 observed and simulated with
kinematic method, same case as Figure 8 (A) Log (mass centre) location at each time
step, observed: recorded and post-processed; simulated: calculated by the numerical
model (kinematic method) without turbulence. (B) Absolute error in log position
coordinates (meters) over time (C).
Figure 12: (A and B): Log (mass centre) trajectory in geometry 2 observed and simulated
with and without turbulence. Correlation coefficient. > 0.8. (C) Log position over
time in: observed and simulated. (D) Absolute error in log position coordinates
(meters) over time. (E) Squared error.
Figure 13: Numerical model results (kinematic method) of Geometry 2: water depth, flow
velocity (module), Froude number and turbulence viscosity are shown together with
log trajectory (black lines). Flow direction left to right .
Figure14: Numerical model results: Log interaction: (A) Log is moving and rotating
according to the velocity field; (B) a second log arrives and collides with log 1 and
changes its trajectory. Flow direction left to right.
Figure 15: Flume geometry 4: two central piers. Logs were entering the flume and most of
them were entrapped by the piers.
Figure 16: Geometry 4 simulation results. (a) Logs blocked (coloured lines) and trajectories
(black lines); (b) Water depth with and without LWD ; (c) Velocity module with
and without LWD ; (d) Froude number with and without LWD ; (e) Turbulence
viscosity with and without LWD .
Figure17: Simulation results for geometry 1 varying the drag coefficient. (A) log trajectory;
(B) log position.
Figure 18: LWD model transport simulation in Fluviá River (Catalonia). Water depth is
shown by colours and logs by brown lines.
Table 1: Flume test configurations.
Table 2: Statistics for the test case shown in Figure8. X_obs and Y_obs mean X, Y
coordinates observed in the flume and extracted from the records. Sim_K and sim_D
mean X, Y coordinates resulting from the simulation applying kinematic (K) and
dynamic (D) methods.
Table 3: Statistics for the test case shown in Figure12. X_obs and Y_obs are X, Y
coordinates observed in the flume and extracted from the records. Sim and sim_k-e

are X, Y coordinates resulted from the simulation applying kinematic method

without and with turbulence respectively.
Figure 1: Location of the study area: Arroyo Cabrera stream basin with vegetation density
and species, and location and picture of the bridge affected by wood clogging.
Figure 2: Proposed methodology scheme for the study and simulation of a flood event with
large wood transport. Qi and Qw are the inlet flow discharge and inlet wood budget
respectively.
Figure 4: Scheme of the gate and weir internal contour conditions and wood.
Figure 3: Reconstructed event hydrograph (simulated) and uncertainty intervals and the
established scenarios for the wood budget.
Figure 4: Simulation result for scenario 2 and validation using post-event photographs.
Figure 5: Maximum water depth for the simulated hydrograph without wood, and for the
grey polygon the small white building with the high water mark (see Figure4).
Figure 6: Maximum flow velocity for the simulated hydrograph without wood, and for the
grey polygon the small white building with the high water mark (see Figure4).
Figure 7: Maximum transport capacity for the simulated hydrograph without wood, and
for the three scenarios (SC1, SC2, and SC3). The black line represents the bridge,
and the grey polygon the small white building with the high water mark (see
Figure4).
Table 1: Characteristics of the estimated wood budget
Figure 1: Location of the study site. There are four bridges along the studied reach, and the
Cuevas tributary stream joins the Arenal in mid reach.
Figure 2: (left) Flash flood in 1999; (right) Post-flood in 2009. Note deposited wood.

Figure 3: Scheme of methodological approach for flood risk estimation. Qt is a given

return period discharge; LWD = large woody debris transport
Figure 4: Probabilistic flood map (without wood transport) for 500-year flood.
Figure 5: Water depth (in meters) for the 90% probabilistic flooding map (A) without
wood; (B) scenario 1 of wood transport and deposition; (C) scenario 2; (D) scenario
3. Figure 6: Examples of the damage functions used in this analysis. (A) Structural
vulnerability (B) contents vulnerability (depth-damage functions) for one-storey
residential buildings with basement.
Figure 7: Potential damage to the structure and content of the three main types of
buildings in the area based on simulation without wood.
Figure 8: Total potential damage in the three main types of buildings in the area based on
simulations without wood (light blue bars) and for the three scenarios of wood
transport (woody brown bars).
Figure 9: (A) Flow transport capacity (diameter of sediment in meters) without wood and
(C) scenario 3 of wood transport; (B) Danger zone for people without wood and (D)
scenario 3 of wood transport. Maps are related to the 90% probability 500-year flood.
Figure 10: Potential damage to vehicles in the riverside parking area based on simulations
without wood (light blue bars) and for the three wood transport scenarios (woody
brown bars).
Table 1: Main morphometric characteristics of the Arenal river basin and the study reach.
Table 2: Arenal river at Arenas de San Pedro : estimated discharge quantiles Q(ML)
corresponding to return period T =500. CI0.05 (CI0.95) is the 5% (95%) confidence
limit of estimates Q(ML).
CAPÍTULO/CHAPTER 5
Figure 5.1: Conceptual scheme of the proposed methodology to estimate the flood
frequency. Esquema conceptual de la metodología propuesta para estimar la
frecuencia de avenidas
Figure 5.2: Proposed methodology for incorporating woody material transport in flood
risk analysis Propuesta metodológica para incorporar el transporte de material leñoso
en los análisis de riesgo por avenidas

Figure 5.3: (A) Woody jam and scarred trees during the 2008 flood in College Burn River
(England). (B) Scarred tree in Merced River (Josemite, USA), the injury height is
below the flood water level (Yanosky and Jarret, 2002; Jarret, 2007). Acumulaciones
de material leñoso en la base de árboles de ribera que presentan heridas producidas
durante una avenida ocurrida en 2008 en el río College Burn (Inglaterra). (B) La
altura de las heridas observadas en los árboles situados en el río Merced (Josemite,
Estados Unidos), se encuentran por debajo del nivel que alcanzó la inundación
(Yanosky y Jarret, 2002; Jarret, 2007).
balance acting on a log with a root-wad (from Braudrick and Grant, 2000).
Diagramas esquemáticos del balance de fuerzas sobre una pieza de madera
suponiendo ésta como un cilindro y un disco (extraído y traducido de Braudrick y
Grant, 2000).
Figure 5.5: Main components of the fluvial dynamics could be modeled after this research
work. Componentes principales de la dinámica fluvial que podrían ser modelizados
tras los resultados de este trabajo de investigación en futuros trabajos.


Diseño de la cubierta:
Esaú Sánchez,
Con la colaboración de Mario Dequel y Elena González.
Fotografías: Virginia Ruiz Villanueva

Virginia Ruiz
Villanueva
Nuevas Metodologías en la Evaluación de la Peligrosidad Nuevas Metodologías en la Evaluación de la Peligrosidad
y el Riesgo por Avenidas en Cuencas de Montaña y el Riesgo por Avenidas en Cuencas de Montaña
New Methods in the Flash Flood Hazard and Risk Analysis in Mountain Basins New Methods in the Flash Flood Hazard and Risk Analysis in Mountain Basins
Virginia Ruiz Villanueva

Madrid, 2012 Tesis doctoral
Nuevas Metodologías en la Evaluación de la Peligrosidady el
New Methods in the Flash Flood Hazard and Risk Analysis in Mountain Basins
El objetivo de este trabajo de investigación ha sido desarrollar nuevas metodologías que permitan mejorar
la evaluación del riesgo por avenidas en zonas montañosas. En primer lugar, se han integrado y combinado
diferentes fuentes de datos (instrumentales, históricas o documentales y dendrogeomorfológicas) para
recopilar y caracterizar las avenidas pasadas, e incorporar esta información al análisis de frecuencia.
A continuación, se ha incluido la carga leñosa en los análisis de peligrosidad y riesgo por avenidas.
A pesar de la importancia que tiene su presencia en la dinámica fluvial, este tipo de carga raramente ha
sido tenida en cuenta en los estudios de inundaciones. Para poder incluirla, se ha desarrollado un modelo
Riesgo por Avenidas en Cuencas de Montaña

numérico que permite simular el transporte de material leñoso junto con la hidrodinámica. Y por último,
se han evaluado las incertidumbres asociadas a cada una de las etapas del análisis de riesgo (estimación
de caudales, análisis de frecuencia, simulación hidrodinámica y evaluación de la vulnerabilidad), desde una
perspectiva probabilista. Estas metodologías se han llevado a cabo en varias cuencas y/o tramos de río
situados en la Sierra de Gredos (Sistema Central español).
The main objective of this research paper is therefore to develop new methods to improve flood risk evaluation
in mountain areas. First, the data from different instrumental, historical, documentary and dendrogeomorphologilcal
sources was integrated to compile and characterize past flash-floods and include this combined information in frequency
analysis. The woody load was then included in the flash-flood hazard and risk analyses. In spite of the significant impact
of the presence of this type of load on fluvial dynamics, it is seldom taken into account in flood studies. To allow this
factor to be included, a numerical model was developed to simulate the woody material transport in conjunction with
the hydrodynamics. Finally, the uncertainty at each stage of the risk analysis (flow rate estimate, frequency analysis,
hydrodynamic simulation and vulnerability assessment) was evaluated from a probabilistic viewpoint.This methodology
was implemented in various basins or river reaches in the Sierra de Gredos (Spanish Central System).
Directores:
Dr. José María Bodoque del Pozo Dr. Andrés Díez Herrero
Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha Instituto Geológico y Minero de España

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Virginia Ruiz

Virginia Ruiz Villanueva

Nuevas Metodologías en la Evaluación de la Peligrosidady el

Riesgo por Avenidas en Cuencas de Montaña

PROGRAMA TORADO “HIDROGEO

Licenciadaa en Cienciaas Geológiccas

UNIVVERSIDAD DE CASTILLA-LA MANCHA INSTITUTO

Madridd, Noviembrre de 2012

1. INTRODUCCIÓN, ANTECEDENTES Y OBJETIVOS ............................ 1

2. MATERIALES Y MÉTODOS ............................................................................ 41

3. ZONA DE ESTUDIO: LA SIERRA DE GREDOS ..................................... 89

4. RESULTADOS .................................................................................................................. 113

5. SÍNTESIS, DISCUSIÓN Y CONCLUSIONES ........................................ 357

6. REFERENCIAS BIBLIOGRÁFICAS , FIGURAS Y TABLAS.............. 391

En las últimas semanas, antes de la finalización de esta memoria, pensaba en este

Y seguidamente, quiero hacer especial mención a José Francisco Martín Duque

VIRGINIA RUIZ-VILLANUEVA I TESIS DOCTORAL/ PhD THESIS (2012)

La primera de estas estancias fue en el Laboratorio de Dendrogeomorfología

La segunda estancia la realicé en el Departamento del Territorio y Sistema Agro-

VIRGINIA RUIZ-VILLANUEVA II TESIS DOCTORAL/ PhD THESIS (2012)

La tercera estancia fue en el Instituto FLUMEN, en la Escuela de Caminos de la

Complemento fundamental ha sido también la asistencia a congresos, reuniones

El maravilloso entorno en el que he tenido la fortuna de trabajar, la Sierra de Gredos,

Por último, quiero expresar mi agradecimiento a mi familia y amig@s.

VIRGINIA RUIZ-VILLANUEVA III TESIS DOCTORAL/ PhD THESIS (2012)

apoyo y el inmenso cariño, además de por el asesoramiento en la maquetación y diseño de

A mis padres y mi hermano, imprescindibles, porque siempre me han apoyado y

VIRGINIA RUIZ-VILLANUEVA IV TESIS DOCTORAL/ PhD THESIS (2012)

Las características fisiográficas y climáticas propias de las zonas de montaña

Por lo tanto, el objetivo de este trabajo de investigación ha sido desarrollar nuevas

VIRGINIA RUIZ-VILLANUEVA V TESIS DOCTORAL/ PhD THESIS (2012)

Los resultados obtenidos permiten afirmar que las técnicas dendrogeomorfológicas

VIRGINIA RUIZ-VILLANUEVA VI TESIS DOCTORAL/ PhD THESIS (2012)

Además, el planteamiento de los análisis combinando una perspectiva probabilista

Como conclusión, la combinación de diferentes fuentes de datos, junto con el

VIRGINIA RUIZ-VILLANUEVA VII TESIS DOCTORAL/ PhD THESIS (2012)

VIRGINIA RUIZ-VILLANUEVA VIII TESIS DOCTORAL/ PhD THESIS (2012)

The physiographic and climatic characteristics of mountain areas determine the

The results obtained confirm that dendrogeomorphological techniques are a

VIRGINIA RUIZ-VILLANUEVA IX TESIS DOCTORAL/ PhD THESIS (2012)

To understand the entrainment mechanisms of this woody material in the stream

In addition, this approach, which combines analysis with probabilistic scenario

VIRGINIA RUIZ-VILLANUEVA X TESIS DOCTORAL/ PhD THESIS (2012)

IV. ESTRUCTURA DE LA MEMORIA

Este documento ha sido elaborado según la estructura clásica de un trabajo de

En primer lugar, el Capítulo 1 comienza con una breve Introducción en la que se

El Capítulo 2 describe de forma general los diferentes materiales y métodos

El Capítulo 3 presenta el contexto geográfico, geológico y climático de la zona de

El Capítulo 4 recoge los resultados en siete artículos publicados, o en fase de

Finalmente, el Capítulo 5 hace una síntesis de los resultados, resaltando las

Al final se recogen las referencias y citas bibliográficas utilizadas en los Capítulos 1, 2,

VIRGINIA RUIZ-VILLANUEVA XI TESIS DOCTORAL/ PhD THESIS (2012)

1.3. Planteamiento de la problemática

VIRGINIA RUIZ-VILLANUEVA 1 TESIS DOCTORAL/ PhD THESIS (2012)

VIRGINIA RUIZ-VILLANUEVA 2 TESIS DOCTORAL/ PhD THESIS (2012)

1.1.1. Características de las cuencas y ríos de montaña

En España, la Carta Española de las Montañas, en su último borrador, todavía no

En base a lo anterior, un amplio porcentaje de la superficie terrestre puede

VIRGINIA RUIZ-VILLANUEVA 3 TESIS DOCTORAL/ PhD THESIS (2012)

superficie del Planeta (entre un 60 y un 80% de la red de drenaje de acuerdo a Schumm,

Atendiendo al otro parámetro clave, la pendiente, varios autores han introducido

Siguiendo los criterios anteriores, en este trabajo denominaremos río de montaña a

VIRGINIA RUIZ-VILLANUEVA 4 TESIS DOCTORAL/ PhD THESIS (2012)

Los principales factores que determinan los procesos hidrológicos y geomorfológicos