Simulacion Montecarlo en Excel

simulacin de montecarlo con Excel
PLANTEAMIENTO DEL PROBLEMA FASES PARA DESARROLLAR EL
El gerente de PRODUCTOS PRECEDEROS SL vende todos 1) DEFINIR LAS VARIABLES NO CONTROBLES (

los das un producto perecedero en el mercado, de tal manera UNIDADES VENDIDAS
que las existencias que no se venden en el da constituyen
PRECIO DE VENTA
una perdida neta igual al coste de su adquisicin ms
1/unidad en concepto de transporte. PRECIO DE COMPRA
2) DEFINIR VARIABLE NO CONTROLADAS DETE
COSTE DE TRANSPORTE 1 POR UNID
3) DEFINIR VARIABLES CONTROLADAS
A primera hora de la maana adquiere las unidades de CANTIDAD A COMPRAR ( 18, 19, 20, 21, 2
producto que prev que va a vender. A continuacin se va a su 4) CALCULO DE LA FUNCION DE DISTRIBUCION
puesto en el mercado, donde permanece hasta las 14 horas.
DE LAS VARIABLE NO CONTROLABLES
Despus de esa hora las unidades sobrantes van al
contenedor de basura. 5) INTEGRACION DE LOS ELEMENTOS EN EL M
COMBINAR LOS N ALEATORIOS OBTEN
CON LA FUNCION DE DISTRIBUCION VA
Y SIMULAR LOS BENEFICIOS EN FUNCIO
TODAS LAS VARIABLES DEL MODELO
Por esta razn, el gerente desea ser muy cuidadoso con las 6) FUNCION DE DISTRIBUCION DE LOS BENEFI
provisiones de ese producto y con tal motivo ha decidido COMO HERRAMIENTA DE DECISIN
realizar un modelo de simulacin que le informe de cuantas 7) COMPARACION DE LOS BENEFICIOS ESPER
unidades de ese producto debe adquirir cada da. OPTENCION DE MEDIAS E INTERVALOS
PARA CADA CANTIDAD COMPRADA
COMO HERRAMIENTA DE DECISIN
Si vende todo (COMPRAS <= DEMANDA) sus ingresos

sern: (VENTAS x PRECIO DE VENTA) - (COMPRAS x
PRECIO DE COMPRA) - (COMPRAS x 1 de transporte)
Si no vende todo, (COMPRAS > DEMANDA) sus ingresos

sern: (DEMANDA x PRECIO DE VENTA) - (COMPRAS x www.economia-excel.com
PRECIO DE COMPRA) - (COMPRAS x 1 de tansporte)
Hay un coste de exceso si la DEMANDA < COMPRAS. La

cantidad no vendida por el precio de compra ms los gastos
de transporte.
Los datos histricos que puede facilitar son los siguientes:

Unidades vendidas N de das
20 10
21 20
22 30
23 30
24 20
25 10
Los precios de venta han variado cada da y los datos que
nos puede proporcionar son :
Precio de venta N de das
10 20
12 30
14 40
16 30
18 10
Asimismo nos puede facilitar el precio de compra unitario

de la mercanca
Precio de compra N de das

5 15
7 25
9 35
11 25
17 10
rlo con Excel
PARA DESARROLLAR EL MODELO:
ABLES NO CONTROBLES (ALEATORIAS)
NO CONTROLADAS DETERMINISTAS
ANSPORTE 1 POR UNIDAD
S CONTROLADAS
OMPRAR ( 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23 . ) a optimizar.
UNCION DE DISTRIBUCION
BLE NO CONTROLABLES (ALEATORIAS)
LOS ELEMENTOS EN EL MODELO
S N ALEATORIOS OBTENIDOS CON EXCEL
ON DE DISTRIBUCION VAR. ALEATORIAS
S BENEFICIOS EN FUNCION DE LAS
ARIABLES DEL MODELO
RIBUCION DE LOS BENEFICIOS SIMULADOS
MIENTA DE DECISIN
LOS BENEFICIOS ESPERADOS
E MEDIAS E INTERVALOS (nivel confianza 95 %)
ANTIDAD COMPRADA
MIENTA DE DECISIN
www.economia-excel.com
Empresa: PRODUCTOS PERECEDEROS SL
Objetivo: decidir el n de unidades de mximo beneficio que debe adquirir la empresa

PRODUCTOS PERECEDEROS SL
Mtodo: simulacin de Montecarlo con Excel = mtodo cuantitativo que a partir de una
muestra estadstica y una serie de nmeros aleatorios analiza el comportamiento de
sistemas reales no dinmicos.
Modelo: Max Beneficio / Beneficio=si adquisicin <= demanda , ((adquisicin x precio de

venta) - (adquisicin x precio de compra) - (adquisicin x transporte)), (demanda x precio
de venta) - (demanda x precio de compra) - (demanda x transporte) - coste de exceso)
(utilizando notacin Excel)
1 - Variables no controlables aleatorias:

VENTAS PRECIO DE VENTA PRECIO DE COMPRA
uds vendidas n de das precios n de das precios n de das
20 10 10 20 5 15
21 20 12 30 7 25
22 30 14 40 9 35
23 30 16 30 11 25
24 20 18 10 17 10
25 10
2 - Variables no controlables deterministas:

coste exceso = Precio adquisicin + 1
3 - Variables controlables:
cantidad de productos a adquirir: 18, 19, 20. 30
4 - Distribucin de probabilidad de las variables no controlables:

Demanda Precio venta Precio compra
Pr. Acumulada Demanda n de das Pr. Suceso Pr. Acumulada P. Venta n de das Pr. Suceso Pr. Acumulada P. Compra n de das Pr. Suceso
0.00 19 0.00 9 0.00 4
0.08 20 10 0.08 0.15 10 20 0.15 0.14 5 15 0.14
0.25 21 20 0.17 0.38 12 30 0.23 0.36 7 25 0.23
0.50 22 30 0.25 0.69 14 40 0.31 0.68 9 35 0.32
0.75 23 30 0.25 0.92 16 30 0.23 0.91 11 25 0.23
0.92 24 20 0.17 1.00 18 10 0.08 1.00 17 10 0.09
1.00 25 10 0.08 130 1.00 110 1.00
120 1.00
A continuacin se representa grficamente el rea de probabilidad de cada suceso:
demanda precio de venta precio de compra

0.14
0.23
0.32
0.23
0.09
0.08
0.17
0.25
0.25
0.17
0.08
0.15
0.23
0.31
0.23
0.08
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00
prob. Demanda 25 uds prob. Demanda 24 uds
prob. precio compra 17 prob. precio compra 11 prob. precio compra 9
prob. Demanda 23 uds prob. Demanda 22 uds prob. precio vta. 18 prob. precio vta.16 prob. precio vta. 14
prob. precio compra 7 prob. precio compra 5
prob. Demanda 21 uds prob. Demanda 20 uds prob. precio vta. 12 prob. precio vta. 10
5 - Integracin de los elementos en el modelo
Se trata de generar una serie de nmeros pseudo-aleatorios mediante Excel, dentro de una distribucin uniforme
entre 0 y 1, y buscar el intervalo de nmeros aleatorios asociados a cada suceso a partir de la columna de
probabilidad acumulada. Se realizan 1000 ensayos
Con los datos simulados se calcula el beneficio para las distintas cantidades a adquirir (variables controlables) y
conforme a la frmula del modelo.
SIMULACIN DE BENEFICIOS PARA LAS SIGUIENTES CANTIDADES A COMPRAR
ASIGNACIN DE SUCESOS A LOS NUM. ALEATORIOS EXCEL
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
n sucesos demanda precio venta precio compra coste compra coste exceso beneficios coste exceso beneficios coste exceso beneficios coste exceso beneficios coste exceso beneficios coste exceso beneficios coste exceso beneficios coste exceso beneficios coste exceso beneficios
1 20 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 9 111 18 102 27 93 36 84 45 75 54 66
2 22 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 11 33 22 22 33 11 44 0
3 21 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 9 12 18 3 27 -6 36 -15 45 -24
4 21 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 9 117 18 108 27 99 36 90 45 81
5 22 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 11 77 22 66 33 55 44 44
6 21 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 7 77 14 70 21 63 28 56 35 49
7 23 15 12 13 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 13 33 26 20 39 7
8 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
9 20 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 9 11 18 2 27 -7 36 -16 45 -25 54 -34
10 25 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 0 50 9 41
11 25 17 10 11 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 0 150 11 139
12 22 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44
13 21 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 11 73 22 62 33 51 44 40 55 29
14 22 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 7 81 14 74 21 67 28 60
15 21 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 9 117 18 108 27 99 36 90 45 81
16 20 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26 39 -39 52 -52 65 -65 78 -78
17 22 15 12 13 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 13 31 26 18 39 5 52 -8
18 25 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 0 66 0 69 0 72 0 75 7 68
19 24 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 11 85 22 74
20 25 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 0 100 9 91
21 21 10 12 13 0 -54 0 -57 0 -60 0 -63 13 -76 26 -89 39 -102 52 -115 65 -128
22 23 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33
23 23 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 9 129 18 120 27 111
24 25 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 0 50 9 41
25 20 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44 55 -55 66 -66
26 23 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 9 37 18 28 27 19
27 23 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 9 175 18 166 27 157
28 24 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 11 37 22 26
29 22 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 7 81 14 74 21 67 28 60
30 22 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 6 104 12 98 18 92 24 86
31 22 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 9 35 18 26 27 17 36 8
32 24 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26
33 20 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 9 71 18 62 27 53 36 44 45 35 54 26
34 23 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 0 -23 11 -34 22 -45 33 -56
35 25 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 0 150 7 143
36 20 15 12 13 0 36 0 38 0 40 13 27 26 14 39 1 52 -12 65 -25 78 -38
37 21 17 6 7 0 180 0 190 0 200 0 210 7 203 14 196 21 189 28 182 35 175
38 23 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 7 131 14 124 21 117
39 24 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 0 161 0 168 6 162 12 156
40 20 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 11 69 22 58 33 47 44 36 55 25 66 14
41 23 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 7 85 14 78 21 71
42 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
43 24 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 0 24 9 15 18 6
44 24 10 5 6 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 6 90 12 84
45 24 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22
46 23 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 0 115 6 109 12 103 18 97
47 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
48 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
49 21 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 7 119 14 112 21 105 28 98 35 91
50 23 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 7 131 14 124 21 117
51 22 17 10 11 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 11 121 22 110 33 99 44 88
52 22 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 9 123 18 114 27 105 36 96
53 23 17 10 11 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 11 127 22 116 33 105
54 21 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44 55 -55
55 22 17 10 11 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 11 121 22 110 33 99 44 88
56 22 15 12 13 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 13 31 26 18 39 5 52 -8
57 24 10 5 6 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 6 90 12 84
58 24 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 9 87 18 78
59 21 10 5 6 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 6 78 12 72 18 66 24 60 30 54
60 25 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 0 198 0 207 0 216 0 225 6 219
61 21 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 9 117 18 108 27 99 36 90 45 81
62 25 17 6 7 0 180 0 190 0 200 0 210 0 220 0 230 0 240 0 250 7 243
63 24 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 11 85 22 74
64 21 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 11 -32 22 -43 33 -54 44 -65 55 -76
65 22 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 9 123 18 114 27 105 36 96
66 21 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 9 12 18 3 27 -6 36 -15 45 -24
67 24 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 9 87 18 78
68 21 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 9 75 18 66 27 57 36 48 45 39
69 21 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 9 117 18 108 27 99 36 90 45 81
70 23 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 0 66 0 69 7 62 14 55 21 48
71 23 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 11 35 22 24 33 13
72 24 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 9 87 18 78
73 25 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 0 198 0 207 0 216 0 225 6 219
74 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
75 22 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 9 123 18 114 27 105 36 96
76 22 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 9 13 18 4 27 -5 36 -14
77 22 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 7 169 14 162 21 155 28 148
78 21 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 7 161 14 154 21 147 28 140 35 133
79 21 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 7 161 14 154 21 147 28 140 35 133
80 22 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44
81 20 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 9 151 18 142 27 133 36 124 45 115 54 106
82 22 17 5 6 0 198 0 209 0 220 0 231 0 242 6 236 12 230 18 224 24 218
83 24 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 9 87 18 78
84 23 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 0 115 6 109 12 103 18 97
85 23 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 11 81 22 70 33 59
86 23 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 9 129 18 120 27 111
87 22 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 7 125 14 118 21 111 28 104
88 22 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 7 125 14 118 21 111 28 104
89 23 17 10 11 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 11 127 22 116 33 105
90 25 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 0 150 9 141
91 20 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 9 111 18 102 27 93 36 84 45 75 54 66
92 23 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 9 37 18 28 27 19
93 21 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 11 31 22 20 33 9 44 -2 55 -13
94 23 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 11 35 22 24 33 13
95 22 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 11 -33 22 -44 33 -55 44 -66
96 24 17 6 7 0 180 0 190 0 200 0 210 0 220 0 230 0 240 7 233 14 226
97 24 10 5 6 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 6 90 12 84
98 20 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 11 69 22 58 33 47 44 36 55 25 66 14
99 21 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 6 141 12 135 18 129 24 123 30 117
100 20 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 7 73 14 66 21 59 28 52 35 45 42 38
101 25 17 5 6 0 198 0 209 0 220 0 231 0 242 0 253 0 264 0 275 6 269
102 25 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 0 192 0 200 9 191
103 23 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 0 66 0 69 7 62 14 55 21 48
104 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
105 23 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 7 177 14 170 21 163
106 24 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 11 85 22 74
107 23 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 7 131 14 124 21 117
108 23 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 9 83 18 74 27 65
109 24 17 10 11 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 11 133 22 122
110 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
111 24 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 9 87 18 78
112 22 15 12 13 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 13 31 26 18 39 5 52 -8
113 23 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 7 85 14 78 21 71
114 23 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33
115 23 17 10 11 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 11 127 22 116 33 105
116 23 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 9 129 18 120 27 111
117 24 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 0 198 0 207 0 216 6 210 12 204
118 23 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 0 161 6 155 12 149 18 143
119 24 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 9 135 18 126
120 21 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 7 56 14 49 21 42 28 35 35 28
121 21 17 10 11 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 11 115 22 104 33 93 44 82 55 71
122 23 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 0 115 6 109 12 103 18 97
123 21 15 12 13 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 13 29 26 16 39 3 52 -10 65 -23
124 24 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 0 24 9 15 18 6
125 22 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 11 33 22 22 33 11 44 0
126 24 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 0 192 7 185 14 178
127 21 15 12 13 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 13 29 26 16 39 3 52 -10 65 -23
128 23 17 6 7 0 180 0 190 0 200 0 210 0 220 0 230 7 223 14 216 21 209
129 23 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33
130 22 15 12 13 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 13 31 26 18 39 5 52 -8
131 25 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11
132 22 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 9 123 18 114 27 105 36 96
133 22 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44
134 22 17 6 7 0 180 0 190 0 200 0 210 0 220 7 213 14 206 21 199 28 192
135 24 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 9 87 18 78
136 22 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 11 33 22 22 33 11 44 0
137 22 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 6 104 12 98 18 92 24 86
138 25 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 0 150 7 143
139 22 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 7 125 14 118 21 111 28 104
140 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
141 22 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 11 33 22 22 33 11 44 0
142 23 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 7 131 14 124 21 117
143 24 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 0 -23 0 -24 11 -35 22 -46
144 21 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 11 31 22 20 33 9 44 -2 55 -13
145 20 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44 55 -55 66 -66
146 21 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 9 159 18 150 27 141 36 132 45 123
147 25 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 0 50 11 39
148 22 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 6 148 12 142 18 136 24 130
149 24 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 9 135 18 126
150 21 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 9 75 18 66 27 57 36 48 45 39
151 24 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22
152 22 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 0 198 6 192 12 186 18 180 24 174
153 23 10 5 6 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 6 86 12 80 18 74
154 23 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 9 129 18 120 27 111
155 23 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 9 37 18 28 27 19
156 22 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 7 169 14 162 21 155 28 148
157 25 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 0 150 9 141
158 24 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 9 87 18 78
159 21 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 11 31 22 20 33 9 44 -2 55 -13
160 24 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26
161 24 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 9 87 18 78
162 20 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 7 153 14 146 21 139 28 132 35 125 42 118
163 24 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 9 87 18 78
164 23 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 9 175 18 166 27 157
165 23 17 5 6 0 198 0 209 0 220 0 231 0 242 0 253 6 247 12 241 18 235
166 20 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 7 153 14 146 21 139 28 132 35 125 42 118
167 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
168 22 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 9 123 18 114 27 105 36 96
169 25 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 0 -23 0 -24 0 -25 11 -36
170 24 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 0 115 0 120 6 114 12 108
171 20 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 9 31 18 22 27 13 36 4 45 -5 54 -14
172 23 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 9 14 18 5 27 -4
173 23 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 9 129 18 120 27 111
174 25 10 5 6 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 0 100 6 94
175 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
176 20 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 7 113 14 106 21 99 28 92 35 85 42 78
177 23 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 9 83 18 74 27 65
178 25 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 0 150 9 141
179 21 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 9 12 18 3 27 -6 36 -15 45 -24
180 20 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 6 134 12 128 18 122 24 116 30 110 36 104
181 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
182 24 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 0 115 0 120 6 114 12 108
183 23 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 7 177 14 170 21 163
184 23 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 0 115 6 109 12 103 18 97
185 24 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 7 89 14 82
186 22 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 11 -33 22 -44 33 -55 44 -66
187 21 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 7 77 14 70 21 63 28 56 35 49
188 22 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 6 104 12 98 18 92 24 86
189 20 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 6 174 12 168 18 162 24 156 30 150 36 144
190 22 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 7 81 14 74 21 67 28 60
191 24 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 0 -23 0 -24 11 -35 22 -46
192 25 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 0 -23 0 -24 0 -25 11 -36
193 22 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 7 169 14 162 21 155 28 148
194 23 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 11 35 22 24 33 13
195 21 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 9 12 18 3 27 -6 36 -15 45 -24
196 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
197 24 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22
198 23 11 12 13 0 -36 0 -38 0 -40 0 -42 0 -44 0 -46 13 -59 26 -72 39 -85
199 22 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 6 148 12 142 18 136 24 130
200 24 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22
201 24 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 0 192 9 183 18 174
202 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
203 23 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 7 131 14 124 21 117
204 22 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 7 169 14 162 21 155 28 148
205 25 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 0 100 11 89
206 24 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 0 66 0 69 0 72 7 65 14 58
207 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
208 20 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 7 113 14 106 21 99 28 92 35 85 42 78
209 21 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 7 56 14 49 21 42 28 35 35 28
210 25 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 0 50 11 39
211 21 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 7 161 14 154 21 147 28 140 35 133
212 22 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 0 198 6 192 12 186 18 180 24 174
213 23 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 9 175 18 166 27 157
214 24 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 9 135 18 126
215 21 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44 55 -55
216 21 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 11 -32 22 -43 33 -54 44 -65 55 -76
217 23 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 9 175 18 166 27 157
218 23 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 7 131 14 124 21 117
219 23 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 11 35 22 24 33 13
220 22 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 6 104 12 98 18 92 24 86
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837 23 17 6 7 0 180 0 190 0 200 0 210 0 220 0 230 7 223 14 216 21 209
838 22 17 5 6 0 198 0 209 0 220 0 231 0 242 6 236 12 230 18 224 24 218
839 24 17 6 7 0 180 0 190 0 200 0 210 0 220 0 230 0 240 7 233 14 226
840 25 15 12 13 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 0 50 13 37
841 22 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 7 81 14 74 21 67 28 60
842 23 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33
843 20 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 9 71 18 62 27 53 36 44 45 35 54 26
844 22 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 9 35 18 26 27 17 36 8
845 22 15 12 13 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 13 31 26 18 39 5 52 -8
846 22 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 11 77 22 66 33 55 44 44
847 22 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 9 123 18 114 27 105 36 96
848 24 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 11 85 22 74
849 25 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 0 100 11 89
850 24 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 7 89 14 82
851 24 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 0 192 7 185 14 178
852 24 15 12 13 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 13 35 26 22
853 21 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 11 -32 22 -43 33 -54 44 -65 55 -76
854 23 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33
855 25 11 12 13 0 -36 0 -38 0 -40 0 -42 0 -44 0 -46 0 -48 0 -50 13 -63
856 23 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 7 131 14 124 21 117
857 22 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 6 104 12 98 18 92 24 86
858 25 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 0 100 7 93
859 24 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 9 39 18 30
860 22 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 7 81 14 74 21 67 28 60
861 23 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 11 81 22 70 33 59
862 22 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 11 33 22 22 33 11 44 0
863 24 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 11 37 22 26
864 23 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 9 14 18 5 27 -4
865 25 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 0 150 7 143
866 22 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 7 169 14 162 21 155 28 148
867 21 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 11 31 22 20 33 9 44 -2 55 -13
868 21 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 7 56 14 49 21 42 28 35 35 28
869 22 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 6 148 12 142 18 136 24 130
870 24 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 0 -23 0 -24 11 -35 22 -46
871 23 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 7 85 14 78 21 71
872 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
873 20 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 11 29 22 18 33 7 44 -4 55 -15 66 -26
874 24 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 0 192 7 185 14 178
875 24 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 7 89 14 82
876 22 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 7 125 14 118 21 111 28 104
877 21 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 9 33 18 24 27 15 36 6 45 -3
878 23 17 10 11 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 11 127 22 116 33 105
879 23 17 6 7 0 180 0 190 0 200 0 210 0 220 0 230 7 223 14 216 21 209
880 24 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26
881 23 17 6 7 0 180 0 190 0 200 0 210 0 220 0 230 7 223 14 216 21 209
882 21 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 9 33 18 24 27 15 36 6 45 -3
883 22 17 5 6 0 198 0 209 0 220 0 231 0 242 6 236 12 230 18 224 24 218
884 21 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 6 99 12 93 18 87 24 81 30 75
885 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
886 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
887 22 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 9 35 18 26 27 17 36 8
888 23 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 9 83 18 74 27 65
889 20 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 7 113 14 106 21 99 28 92 35 85 42 78
890 21 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 7 56 14 49 21 42 28 35 35 28
891 23 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 11 35 22 24 33 13
892 25 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 0 24 0 25 9 16
893 22 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 9 13 18 4 27 -5 36 -14
894 21 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 7 161 14 154 21 147 28 140 35 133
895 25 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 0 50 11 39
896 24 17 10 11 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 11 133 22 122
897 24 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 9 135 18 126
898 20 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26 39 -39 52 -52 65 -65 78 -78
899 24 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22
900 23 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 11 35 22 24 33 13
901 22 17 5 6 0 198 0 209 0 220 0 231 0 242 6 236 12 230 18 224 24 218
902 25 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 0 50 11 39
903 21 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 9 33 18 24 27 15 36 6 45 -3
904 23 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 9 37 18 28 27 19
905 22 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 9 13 18 4 27 -5 36 -14
906 24 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 9 39 18 30
907 22 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 7 125 14 118 21 111 28 104
908 23 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 11 81 22 70 33 59
909 23 17 6 7 0 180 0 190 0 200 0 210 0 220 0 230 7 223 14 216 21 209
910 25 17 10 11 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 0 150 11 139
911 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
912 21 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 9 33 18 24 27 15 36 6 45 -3
913 23 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 0 161 6 155 12 149 18 143
914 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
915 20 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 7 153 14 146 21 139 28 132 35 125 42 118
916 24 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 11 37 22 26
917 25 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 0 100 7 93
918 24 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 0 66 0 69 0 72 7 65 14 58
919 23 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 11 81 22 70 33 59
920 21 17 10 11 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 11 115 22 104 33 93 44 82 55 71
921 24 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 0 115 0 120 6 114 12 108
922 24 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 0 -23 0 -24 11 -35 22 -46
923 23 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 0 161 6 155 12 149 18 143
924 23 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 7 131 14 124 21 117
925 21 10 12 13 0 -54 0 -57 0 -60 0 -63 13 -76 26 -89 39 -102 52 -115 65 -128
926 25 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 0 50 9 41
927 22 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 7 169 14 162 21 155 28 148
928 25 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11
929 24 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 9 135 18 126
930 20 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 9 31 18 22 27 13 36 4 45 -5 54 -14
931 21 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 9 75 18 66 27 57 36 48 45 39
932 21 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 7 161 14 154 21 147 28 140 35 133
933 23 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33
934 22 11 12 13 0 -36 0 -38 0 -40 0 -42 0 -44 13 -57 26 -70 39 -83 52 -96
935 23 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 7 131 14 124 21 117
936 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
937 24 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 9 135 18 126
938 23 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33
939 24 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 11 85 22 74
940 21 11 12 13 0 -36 0 -38 0 -40 0 -42 13 -55 26 -68 39 -81 52 -94 65 -107
941 24 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22
942 24 17 5 6 0 198 0 209 0 220 0 231 0 242 0 253 0 264 6 258 12 252
943 24 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22
944 22 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 11 33 22 22 33 11 44 0
945 23 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 7 131 14 124 21 117
946 23 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 0 66 0 69 7 62 14 55 21 48
947 23 10 12 13 0 -54 0 -57 0 -60 0 -63 0 -66 0 -69 13 -82 26 -95 39 -108
948 23 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33
949 22 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 0 66 7 59 14 52 21 45 28 38
950 22 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26 39 -39 52 -52
951 21 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 11 31 22 20 33 9 44 -2 55 -13
952 20 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 7 53 14 46 21 39 28 32 35 25 42 18
953 23 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 9 175 18 166 27 157
954 24 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 9 39 18 30
955 22 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 9 123 18 114 27 105 36 96
956 23 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 11 35 22 24 33 13
957 21 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 11 -32 22 -43 33 -54 44 -65 55 -76
958 23 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 9 14 18 5 27 -4
959 23 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 7 131 14 124 21 117
960 22 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 11 77 22 66 33 55 44 44
961 23 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 9 83 18 74 27 65
962 25 10 5 6 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 0 100 6 94
963 23 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 7 177 14 170 21 163
964 24 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 7 137 14 130
965 23 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33
966 22 17 10 11 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 11 121 22 110 33 99 44 88
967 21 17 6 7 0 180 0 190 0 200 0 210 7 203 14 196 21 189 28 182 35 175
968 24 10 5 6 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 6 90 12 84
969 23 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 9 37 18 28 27 19
970 24 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 0 115 0 120 6 114 12 108
971 23 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 11 35 22 24 33 13
972 25 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 0 198 0 207 0 216 0 225 6 219
973 25 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 0 161 0 168 0 175 6 169
974 25 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 0 150 9 141
975 21 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 7 161 14 154 21 147 28 140 35 133
976 22 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 9 167 18 158 27 149 36 140
977 22 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 7 125 14 118 21 111 28 104
978 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
979 25 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 0 150 7 143
980 23 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 11 35 22 24 33 13
981 22 17 12 13 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 13 75 26 62 39 49 52 36
982 23 17 6 7 0 180 0 190 0 200 0 210 0 220 0 230 7 223 14 216 21 209
983 20 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 9 31 18 22 27 13 36 4 45 -5 54 -14
984 25 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 0 100 7 93
985 23 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 7 177 14 170 21 163
986 20 17 5 6 0 198 0 209 0 220 6 214 12 208 18 202 24 196 30 190 36 184
987 22 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 9 167 18 158 27 149 36 140
988 21 17 12 13 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 13 71 26 58 39 45 52 32 65 19
989 21 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26 39 -39 52 -52 65 -65
990 21 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 7 77 14 70 21 63 28 56 35 49
991 24 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 11 37 22 26
992 22 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 6 104 12 98 18 92 24 86
993 22 17 5 6 0 198 0 209 0 220 0 231 0 242 6 236 12 230 18 224 24 218
994 25 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13
995 25 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 0 150 9 141
996 25 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11
997 23 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 0 -23 11 -34 22 -45 33 -56
998 25 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 0 150 7 143
999 22 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 9 167 18 158 27 149 36 140
1000 21 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 11 31 22 20 33 9 44 -2 55 -13
6 - Funcin de distribucin de beneficios simulados:
Para comparar, de las 9 simulaciones realizadas, se eligen 3 ( 20, 22 y 24 unidades), se calcula la distribucin de beneficios y se representa
grficamente la probabilidad acumulada.
20 unid. 22 unid. 24 unid.

n sucesos prob prob acum n sucesos prob prob acum. n sucesos prob prob acum
-114 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-113 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-112 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-111 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PROB. ACUMULADA
-110 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-109 0 0
DISTRIBUCIN
0 0
DE
0
BENEFICIOS
0 0 0 0
-108
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-107 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.9
-106 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-105 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.8
-104 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-103 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.7
-102 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0.006 0.006
-101 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.006
0.6
-100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.006
-99 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.006
20 unid.
0.5
-98 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.006
-97 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.006 22 unid.
-96
0.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.006 24 unid.
-95 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.006
-94 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.006
0.3
-93 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.006
-92 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.002 0.008
0.2
-91 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.008
-90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.008
0.1
-89 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.008
-88 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.008
-87
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.008
21
39
66
93
-105
-78
-69
-51
-33
-24
-6
12
30
48
57
75
84
-114
-96
-87
-60
-42
-15
102
111
120
129
138
147
156
165
174
183
192
201
210
219
228
237
246
-86 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.008
-85 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.008
-84 0 0 0
BENEFICIO
0
SIMULADO
0 0 0 0 0.008
-83 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.008
-82 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0.004 0.012
-81 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0.004 0.016
-80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.016
-79 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.016
-78 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.016
-77 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.016
-76 0 0 0 3 0.006 0.006 0 0 0.016
-75 0 0 0 0 0 0.006 0 0 0.016
-74 0 0 0 0 0 0.006 0 0 0.016
-73 0 0 0 0 0 0.006 0 0 0.016
-72 0 0 0 0 0 0.006 0 0 0.016
-71 0 0 0 0 0 0.006 0 0 0.016
-70 0 0 0 0 0 0.006 1 0.002 0.018
-69 0 0 0 0 0 0.006 0 0 0.018
-68 0 0 0 0 0 0.006 0 0 0.018
-67 0 0 0 0 0 0.006 0 0 0.018
-66 0 0 0 3 0.006 0.012 0 0 0.018
-65 0 0 0 0 0 0.012 0 0 0.018
-64 0 0 0 0 0 0.012 1 0.002 0.02
-63 0 0 0 0 0 0.012 0 0 0.02
-62 0 0 0 0 0 0.012 0 0 0.02
-61 0 0 0 0 0 0.012 0 0 0.02
-60 6 0.012 0.012 0 0 0.012 0 0 0.02
-59 0 0 0.012 0 0 0.012 3 0.006 0.026
-58 0 0 0.012 0 0 0.012 0 0 0.026
-57 0 0 0.012 0 0 0.012 0 0 0.026
-56 0 0 0.012 0 0 0.012 0 0 0.026
-55 0 0 0.012 2 0.004 0.016 0 0 0.026
-54 0 0 0.012 0 0 0.016 2 0.004 0.03
-53 0 0 0.012 0 0 0.016 0 0 0.03
-52 0 0 0.012 0 0 0.016 3 0.006 0.036
-51 0 0 0.012 0 0 0.016 0 0 0.036
-50 0 0 0.012 0 0 0.016 0 0 0.036
-49 0 0 0.012 0 0 0.016 0 0 0.036
-48 0 0 0.012 0 0 0.016 2 0.004 0.04
-47 0 0 0.012 0 0 0.016 0 0 0.04
-46 0 0 0.012 0 0 0.016 0 0 0.04
-45 0 0 0.012 0 0 0.016 0 0 0.04
-44 0 0 0.012 6 0.012 0.028 9 0.018 0.058
-43 0 0 0.012 0 0 0.028 0 0 0.058
-42 0 0 0.012 1 0.002 0.03 0 0 0.058
-41 0 0 0.012 0 0 0.03 0 0 0.058
-40 8 0.016 0.028 0 0 0.03 0 0 0.058
-39 0 0 0.028 0 0 0.03 1 0.002 0.06
-38 0 0 0.028 0 0 0.03 0 0 0.06
-37 0 0 0.028 0 0 0.03 0 0 0.06
-36 0 0 0.028 0 0 0.03 0 0 0.06
-35 0 0 0.028 0 0 0.03 0 0 0.06
-34 0 0 0.028 0 0 0.03 3 0.006 0.066
-33 0 0 0.028 0 0 0.03 4 0.008 0.074
-32 0 0 0.028 2 0.004 0.034 0 0 0.074
-31 0 0 0.028 0 0 0.034 0 0 0.074
-30 0 0 0.028 0 0 0.034 0 0 0.074
-29 0 0 0.028 0 0 0.034 0 0 0.074
-28 0 0 0.028 0 0 0.034 0 0 0.074
-27 0 0 0.028 0 0 0.034 0 0 0.074
-26 0 0 0.028 3 0.006 0.04 1 0.002 0.076
-25 0 0 0.028 0 0 0.04 0 0 0.076
-24 0 0 0.028 0 0 0.04 7 0.014 0.09
-23 0 0 0.028 0 0 0.04 0 0 0.09
-22 0 0 0.028 19 0.038 0.078 10 0.02 0.11
-21 0 0 0.028 0 0 0.078 0 0 0.11
-20 18 0.036 0.064 0 0 0.078 0 0 0.11
-19 0 0 0.064 0 0 0.078 0 0 0.11
-18 0 0 0.064 0 0 0.078 0 0 0.11
-17 0 0 0.064 0 0 0.078 0 0 0.11
-16 0 0 0.064 0 0 0.078 1 0.002 0.112
-15 0 0 0.064 0 0 0.078 0 0 0.112
-14 0 0 0.064 0 0 0.078 0 0 0.112
-13 0 0 0.064 1 0.002 0.08 4 0.008 0.12
-12 0 0 0.064 0 0 0.08 1 0.002 0.122
-11 0 0 0.064 4 0.008 0.088 6 0.012 0.134
-10 0 0 0.064 0 0 0.088 0 0 0.134
-9 0 0 0.064 0 0 0.088 0 0 0.134
-8 0 0 0.064 0 0 0.088 0 0 0.134
-7 0 0 0.064 0 0 0.088 0 0 0.134
-6 0 0 0.064 0 0 0.088 5 0.01 0.144
-5 0 0 0.064 0 0 0.088 0 0 0.144
-4 0 0 0.064 0 0 0.088 0 0 0.144
-3 0 0 0.064 0 0 0.088 0 0 0.144
-2 0 0 0.064 0 0 0.088 0 0 0.144
-1 0 0 0.064 0 0 0.088 0 0 0.144
0 45 0.09 0.154 33 0.066 0.154 12 0.024 0.168
1 0 0 0.154 0 0 0.154 0 0 0.168
2 0 0 0.154 1 0.002 0.156 0 0 0.168
3 0 0 0.154 0 0 0.156 3 0.006 0.174
4 0 0 0.154 0 0 0.156 5 0.01 0.184
5 0 0 0.154 0 0 0.156 0 0 0.184
6 0 0 0.154 0 0 0.156 0 0 0.184
7 0 0 0.154 0 0 0.156 0 0 0.184
8 0 0 0.154 0 0 0.156 0 0 0.184
9 0 0 0.154 0 0 0.156 9 0.018 0.202
10 0 0 0.154 0 0 0.156 0 0 0.202
11 0 0 0.154 0 0 0.156 0 0 0.202
12 0 0 0.154 5 0.01 0.166 0 0 0.202
13 0 0 0.154 0 0 0.166 0 0 0.202
14 0 0 0.154 1 0.002 0.168 6 0.012 0.214
15 0 0 0.154 0 0 0.168 2 0.004 0.218
16 0 0 0.154 0 0 0.168 0 0 0.218
17 0 0 0.154 0 0 0.168 0 0 0.218
18 0 0 0.154 0 0 0.168 4 0.008 0.226
19 0 0 0.154 0 0 0.168 0 0 0.226
20 21 0.042 0.196 0 0 0.168 0 0 0.226
21 0 0 0.196 0 0 0.168 0 0 0.226
22 0 0 0.196 16 0.032 0.2 7 0.014 0.24
23 0 0 0.196 0 0 0.2 0 0 0.24
24 0 0 0.196 0 0 0.2 5 0.01 0.25
25 0 0 0.196 0 0 0.2 0 0 0.25
26 0 0 0.196 0 0 0.2 8 0.016 0.266
27 0 0 0.196 0 0 0.2 0 0 0.266
28 0 0 0.196 0 0 0.2 0 0 0.266
29 0 0 0.196 3 0.006 0.206 0 0 0.266
30 0 0 0.196 0 0 0.206 0 0 0.266
31 0 0 0.196 9 0.018 0.224 0 0 0.266
32 0 0 0.196 0 0 0.224 0 0 0.266
33 0 0 0.196 2 0.004 0.228 3 0.006 0.272
34 0 0 0.196 0 0 0.228 0 0 0.272
35 0 0 0.196 0 0 0.228 5 0.01 0.282
36 0 0 0.196 0 0 0.228 4 0.008 0.29
37 0 0 0.196 0 0 0.228 8 0.016 0.306
38 0 0 0.196 0 0 0.228 0 0 0.306
39 0 0 0.196 0 0 0.228 0 0 0.306
40 71 0.142 0.338 0 0 0.228 0 0 0.306
41 0 0 0.338 0 0 0.228 0 0 0.306
42 0 0 0.338 0 0 0.228 6 0.012 0.318
43 0 0 0.338 0 0 0.228 0 0 0.318
44 0 0 0.338 55 0.11 0.338 1 0.002 0.32
45 0 0 0.338 0 0 0.338 1 0.002 0.322
46 0 0 0.338 0 0 0.338 0 0 0.322
47 0 0 0.338 0 0 0.338 0 0 0.322
48 0 0 0.338 0 0 0.338 20 0.04 0.362
49 0 0 0.338 0 0 0.338 0 0 0.362
50 0 0 0.338 0 0 0.338 0 0 0.362
51 0 0 0.338 0 0 0.338 2 0.004 0.366
52 0 0 0.338 0 0 0.338 8 0.016 0.382
53 0 0 0.338 0 0 0.338 0 0 0.382
54 0 0 0.338 0 0 0.338 0 0 0.382
55 0 0 0.338 0 0 0.338 0 0 0.382
56 0 0 0.338 6 0.012 0.35 0 0 0.382
57 0 0 0.338 0 0 0.35 8 0.016 0.398
58 0 0 0.338 4 0.008 0.358 0 0 0.398
59 0 0 0.338 0 0 0.358 0 0 0.398
60 20 0.04 0.378 0 0 0.358 0 0 0.398
61 0 0 0.378 0 0 0.358 0 0 0.398
62 0 0 0.378 1 0.002 0.36 5 0.01 0.408
63 0 0 0.378 0 0 0.36 7 0.014 0.422
64 0 0 0.378 0 0 0.36 0 0 0.422
65 0 0 0.378 0 0 0.36 0 0 0.422
66 0 0 0.378 15 0.03 0.39 7 0.014 0.436
67 0 0 0.378 0 0 0.39 0 0 0.436
68 0 0 0.378 0 0 0.39 0 0 0.436
69 0 0 0.378 0 0 0.39 0 0 0.436
70 0 0 0.378 0 0 0.39 26 0.052 0.488
71 0 0 0.378 1 0.002 0.392 0 0 0.488
72 0 0 0.378 0 0 0.392 3 0.006 0.494
73 0 0 0.378 2 0.004 0.396 0 0 0.494
74 0 0 0.378 0 0 0.396 5 0.01 0.504
75 0 0 0.378 8 0.016 0.412 0 0 0.504
76 0 0 0.378 0 0 0.412 2 0.004 0.508
77 0 0 0.378 7 0.014 0.426 0 0 0.508
78 0 0 0.378 2 0.004 0.43 0 0 0.508
79 0 0 0.378 0 0 0.43 1 0.002 0.51
80 122 0.244 0.622 0 0 0.43 0 0 0.51
81 0 0 0.622 0 0 0.43 6 0.012 0.522
82 0 0 0.622 0 0 0.43 0 0 0.522
83 0 0 0.622 0 0 0.43 6 0.012 0.534
84 0 0 0.622 0 0 0.43 2 0.004 0.538
85 0 0 0.622 0 0 0.43 9 0.018 0.556
86 0 0 0.622 0 0 0.43 3 0.006 0.562
87 0 0 0.622 0 0 0.43 1 0.002 0.564
88 0 0 0.622 96 0.192 0.622 0 0 0.564
89 0 0 0.622 0 0 0.622 0 0 0.564
90 0 0 0.622 0 0 0.622 0 0 0.564
91 0 0 0.622 0 0 0.622 0 0 0.564
92 0 0 0.622 0 0 0.622 7 0.014 0.578
93 0 0 0.622 0 0 0.622 2 0.004 0.582
94 0 0 0.622 0 0 0.622 0 0 0.582
95 0 0 0.622 0 0 0.622 0 0 0.582
96 0 0 0.622 0 0 0.622 33 0.066 0.648
97 0 0 0.622 0 0 0.622 0 0 0.648
98 0 0 0.622 1 0.002 0.624 8 0.016 0.664
99 0 0 0.622 1 0.002 0.626 10 0.02 0.684
100 18 0.036 0.658 0 0 0.626 0 0 0.684
101 0 0 0.658 0 0 0.626 0 0 0.684
102 0 0 0.658 2 0.004 0.63 0 0 0.684
103 0 0 0.658 0 0 0.63 0 0 0.684
104 0 0 0.658 0 0 0.63 0 0 0.684
105 0 0 0.658 0 0 0.63 2 0.004 0.688
106 0 0 0.658 7 0.014 0.644 0 0 0.688
107 0 0 0.658 0 0 0.644 0 0 0.688
108 0 0 0.658 0 0 0.644 0 0 0.688
109 0 0 0.658 0 0 0.644 7 0.014 0.702
110 0 0 0.658 17 0.034 0.678 4 0.008 0.71
111 0 0 0.658 0 0 0.678 0 0 0.71
112 0 0 0.658 0 0 0.678 0 0 0.71
113 0 0 0.658 0 0 0.678 0 0 0.71
114 0 0 0.658 0 0 0.678 12 0.024 0.734
115 0 0 0.658 2 0.004 0.682 0 0 0.734
116 0 0 0.658 0 0 0.682 2 0.004 0.738
117 0 0 0.658 10 0.02 0.702 0 0 0.738
118 0 0 0.658 0 0 0.702 6 0.012 0.75
119 0 0 0.658 2 0.004 0.706 0 0 0.75
120 85 0.17 0.828 0 0 0.706 2 0.004 0.754
121 0 0 0.828 0 0 0.706 0 0 0.754
122 0 0 0.828 0 0 0.706 0 0 0.754
123 0 0 0.828 0 0 0.706 0 0 0.754
124 0 0 0.828 0 0 0.706 1 0.002 0.756
125 0 0 0.828 0 0 0.706 0 0 0.756
126 0 0 0.828 0 0 0.706 0 0 0.756
127 0 0 0.828 0 0 0.706 3 0.006 0.762
128 0 0 0.828 2 0.004 0.71 0 0 0.762
129 0 0 0.828 0 0 0.71 12 0.024 0.786
130 0 0 0.828 0 0 0.71 0 0 0.786
131 0 0 0.828 0 0 0.71 8 0.016 0.802
132 0 0 0.828 61 0.122 0.832 4 0.008 0.81
133 0 0 0.828 0 0 0.832 0 0 0.81
134 0 0 0.828 0 0 0.832 0 0 0.81
135 0 0 0.828 0 0 0.832 0 0 0.81
136 0 0 0.828 0 0 0.832 0 0 0.81
137 0 0 0.828 0 0 0.832 0 0 0.81
138 0 0 0.828 0 0 0.832 0 0 0.81
139 0 0 0.828 0 0 0.832 0 0 0.81
140 19 0.038 0.866 0 0 0.832 0 0 0.81
141 0 0 0.866 2 0.004 0.836 1 0.002 0.812
142 0 0 0.866 1 0.002 0.838 5 0.01 0.822
143 0 0 0.866 0 0 0.838 0 0 0.822
144 0 0 0.866 0 0 0.838 18 0.036 0.858
145 0 0 0.866 0 0 0.838 0 0 0.858
146 0 0 0.866 4 0.008 0.846 0 0 0.858
147 0 0 0.866 0 0 0.846 6 0.012 0.87
148 0 0 0.866 0 0 0.846 0 0 0.87
149 0 0 0.866 0 0 0.846 0 0 0.87
150 0 0 0.866 0 0 0.846 0 0 0.87
151 0 0 0.866 0 0 0.846 0 0 0.87
152 0 0 0.866 0 0 0.846 0 0 0.87
153 0 0 0.866 0 0 0.846 0 0 0.87
154 0 0 0.866 15 0.03 0.876 0 0 0.87
155 0 0 0.866 0 0 0.876 5 0.01 0.88
156 0 0 0.866 0 0 0.876 1 0.002 0.882
157 0 0 0.866 0 0 0.876 0 0 0.882
158 0 0 0.866 0 0 0.876 0 0 0.882
159 0 0 0.866 1 0.002 0.878 0 0 0.882
160 37 0.074 0.94 0 0 0.878 0 0 0.882
161 0 0 0.94 6 0.012 0.89 0 0 0.882
162 0 0 0.94 0 0 0.89 9 0.018 0.9
163 0 0 0.94 0 0 0.89 0 0 0.9
164 0 0 0.94 0 0 0.89 0 0 0.9
165 0 0 0.94 0 0 0.89 0 0 0.9
166 0 0 0.94 0 0 0.89 0 0 0.9
167 0 0 0.94 0 0 0.89 0 0 0.9
168 0 0 0.94 1 0.002 0.892 5 0.01 0.91
169 0 0 0.94 0 0 0.892 0 0 0.91
170 0 0 0.94 0 0 0.892 0 0 0.91
171 0 0 0.94 0 0 0.892 2 0.004 0.914
172 0 0 0.94 0 0 0.892 1 0.002 0.916
173 0 0 0.94 0 0 0.892 0 0 0.916
174 0 0 0.94 0 0 0.892 0 0 0.916
175 0 0 0.94 0 0 0.892 5 0.01 0.926
176 0 0 0.94 25 0.05 0.942 0 0 0.926
177 0 0 0.94 0 0 0.942 4 0.008 0.934
178 0 0 0.94 0 0 0.942 0 0 0.934
179 0 0 0.94 0 0 0.942 0 0 0.934
180 13 0.026 0.966 0 0 0.942 0 0 0.934
181 0 0 0.966 0 0 0.942 0 0 0.934
182 0 0 0.966 0 0 0.942 0 0 0.934
183 0 0 0.966 2 0.004 0.946 0 0 0.934
184 0 0 0.966 0 0 0.946 0 0 0.934
185 0 0 0.966 0 0 0.946 0 0 0.934
186 0 0 0.966 1 0.002 0.948 3 0.006 0.94
187 0 0 0.966 0 0 0.948 0 0 0.94
188 0 0 0.966 0 0 0.948 0 0 0.94
189 0 0 0.966 0 0 0.948 2 0.004 0.944
190 0 0 0.966 0 0 0.948 0 0 0.944
191 0 0 0.966 0 0 0.948 0 0 0.944
192 0 0 0.966 0 0 0.948 7 0.014 0.958
193 0 0 0.966 0 0 0.948 0 0 0.958
194 0 0 0.966 0 0 0.948 0 0 0.958
195 0 0 0.966 0 0 0.948 0 0 0.958
196 0 0 0.966 0 0 0.948 0 0 0.958
197 0 0 0.966 0 0 0.948 0 0 0.958
198 0 0 0.966 10 0.02 0.968 0 0 0.958
199 0 0 0.966 0 0 0.968 0 0 0.958
200 13 0.026 0.992 0 0 0.968 0 0 0.958
201 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.968 1 0.002 0.96
202 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.968 0 0 0.96
203 0 0 0.992 2 0.004 0.972 0 0 0.96
204 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.96
205 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.96
206 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.972 3 0.006 0.966
207 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.966
208 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.966
209 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.966
210 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.966
211 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.966
212 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.966
213 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.972 1 0.002 0.968
214 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.968
215 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.968
216 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.972 6 0.012 0.98
217 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.98
218 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.98
219 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.972 0 0 0.98
220 4 0.008 1 10 0.02 0.992 0 0 0.98
221 0 0 1 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.98
222 0 0 1 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.98
223 0 0 1 0 0 0.992 3 0.006 0.986
224 0 0 1 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.986
225 0 0 1 1 0.002 0.994 0 0 0.986
226 0 0 1 0 0 0.994 0 0 0.986
227 0 0 1 0 0 0.994 0 0 0.986
228 0 0 1 0 0 0.994 0 0 0.986
229 0 0 1 0 0 0.994 0 0 0.986
230 0 0 1 0 0 0.994 1 0.002 0.988
231 0 0 1 0 0 0.994 0 0 0.988
232 0 0 1 0 0 0.994 0 0 0.988
233 0 0 1 0 0 0.994 0 0 0.988
234 0 0 1 0 0 0.994 0 0 0.988
235 0 0 1 0 0 0.994 0 0 0.988
236 0 0 1 0 0 0.994 0 0 0.988
237 0 0 1 0 0 0.994 0 0 0.988
238 0 0 1 0 0 0.994 0 0 0.988
239 0 0 1 0 0 0.994 0 0 0.988
240 0 0 1 0 0 0.994 4 0.008 0.996
241 0 0 1 0 0 0.994 0 0 0.996
242 0 0 1 3 0.006 1 0 0 0.996
243 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0.996
244 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0.996
245 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0.996
246 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0.996
247 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0.002 0.998
248 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0.998
249 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0.998
250 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0.998
7 - Beneficios esperados:
A partir de los beneficios simulados para cada cantidad comprada obtenemos la variable aleatoria beneficios esperados calculando la media de las
1000 simulaciones, y adems obtenemos el intervalo de confianza a un nivel del 95 %.
BENEFICIO, VARIANZA E INTERVALO GENERADO A PARTIR DE EL N DE UNIDADES COMPRADAS

CANTIDADES 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
BENEFICIO MEDIO 71.24 75.20 79.16 82.15 82.92 80.16 74.43 66.52 57.57
DESVIACIN TPICA 53.12 56.07 59.02 61.80 64.75 67.57 70.12 72.28 73.78
INTERVALO CONFIANZA 4.66 4.91 5.17 5.42 5.68 5.92 6.15 6.34 6.47
MXIMO 75.90 80.12 84.33 87.56 88.60 86.09 80.58 72.85 64.03
B E N E F IC IO M E D IO E N 1 0 0 0 E N S AY.
MNIMO 66.59 70.29 73.99 76.73 77.24 74.24 68.29 60.18 51.10
BENEFICIO ESPERADO
100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
BENEFICIO MEDIO
50.00 MXIMO
40.00 MNIMO
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
18 19 20 CANTIDADES
21 COMPRADAS
22 23
SIMULADAS24 25 26
PULSAR F9 PARA RECALCULO ALEATORIO
Decisin:
Los resultados de la simulacin indican que la decisin que maximiza el

beneficio es realizar un pedido de 22 unidades.
Los resultados de la simulacin indican que la decisin que maximiza el
beneficio es realizar un pedido de 22 unidades.

Simulacion Montecarlo en Excel

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Simulacion Montecarlo en Excel

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simulacin de montecarlo con Excel

PLANTEAMIENTO DEL PROBLEMA FASES PARA DESARROLLAR EL

El gerente de PRODUCTOS PRECEDEROS SL vende todos 1) DEFINIR LAS VARIABLES NO CONTROBLES (

Si vende todo (COMPRAS <= DEMANDA) sus ingresos

Si no vende todo, (COMPRAS > DEMANDA) sus ingresos

Hay un coste de exceso si la DEMANDA < COMPRAS. La

Los datos histricos que puede facilitar son los siguientes:

Asimismo nos puede facilitar el precio de compra unitario

Precio de compra N de das

PARA DESARROLLAR EL MODELO:

ABLES NO CONTROBLES (ALEATORIAS)

Objetivo: decidir el n de unidades de mximo beneficio que debe adquirir la empresa

Modelo: Max Beneficio / Beneficio=si adquisicin <= demanda , ((adquisicin x precio de

1 - Variables no controlables aleatorias:

2 - Variables no controlables deterministas:

4 - Distribucin de probabilidad de las variables no controlables:

A continuacin se representa grficamente el rea de probabilidad de cada suceso:

demanda precio de venta precio de compra

5 - Integracin de los elementos en el modelo

20 unid. 22 unid. 24 unid.

BENEFICIO, VARIANZA E INTERVALO GENERADO A PARTIR DE EL N DE UNIDADES COMPRADAS

PULSAR F9 PARA RECALCULO ALEATORIO

Los resultados de la simulacin indican que la decisin que maximiza el

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