Está en la página 1de 116




5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQRI3DWLHQW&DUH
3URFHVVHVLQ+HDOWKFDUH



6HSLGHK%DKUDQL


7KHVLVVXEPLWWHGWRWKH
)DFXOW\RI*UDGXDWHDQG3RVWGRFWRUDO6WXGLHV
LQSDUWLDOIXOILOOPHQWRIWKHUHTXLUHPHQWVIRUWKHGHJUHHRI


0DVWHURI6FLHQFHLQ6\VWHPV6FLHQFH




8QLYHUVLW\RI2WWDZD
2WWDZD2QWDULR&DQDGD
-XO\
6HSLGHK%DKUDQL2WWDZD&DQDGD





$EVWUDFW

7KH LQFUHDVLQJ ZDLWLQJ WLPHV WR DFFHVV KHDOWKFDUH VHUYLFHV DUH D PDMRU FRQFHUQ IRU SD
WLHQWVLQKRVSLWDOV'XHWRWKHXQSUHGLFWDELOLW\RIKHDOWKLVVXHVKRVSLWDOVDQGFOLQLFDOVHU
YLFHV DUH SURYLGHG WR SDWLHQWV HYHQ ZLWKRXW SUHVFKHGXOHG PHGLFDO DSSRLQWPHQWV 8QH[
SHFWHGDQGUDQGRPSDWLHQWDUULYDOVFDQUHVXOWLQKLJKZDLWLQJWLPHV:DLWLQJRFFXUVPRVW
O\ EHFDXVH RI LQVXIILFLHQW UHVRXUFHV DYDLODEOH FRPSDUHG WR GHPDQGLQJ VHUYLFH GHOLYHU\
UHTXLUHPHQWVDWDJLYHQWLPH7KXVDSSURSULDWHPDQDJHPHQWRIUHVRXUFHVFKHGXOLQJRYHU
WLPHFDQKHOSUHGXFHSDWLHQWZDLWWLPHV
6RIDUVLPXODWLRQKDVPRVWO\EHHQXVHGDVDVXSSRUWIRUVWUDWHJLFGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ
LQKHDOWKFDUHHQYLURQPHQWV:HDUHSURSRVLQJDFRPSOHPHQWDU\DSSURDFKQDPHO\UHDO
WLPH VLPXODWLRQ WR VXSSRUW RSHUDWLRQDO GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ UDWKHU WKDQ ORQJWHUP VWUDWHJLF
GHFLVLRQPDNLQJ 5HDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQ LV D WHFKQLTXH XVHGWR JHW DWLPHO\ SUHGLFWLRQ RI
WKHV\VWHPVWDWXVLQDQHDUIXWXUH HJDIHZKRXUV +RVSLWDOVFDQEHQHILWIURPWKHFDSD
ELOLWLHVRIUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQVE\SUHGLFWLQJXSFRPLQJERWWOHQHFNRFFXUUHQFHVLQSDWLHQW
FDUHSURFHVVHVDQGPDNHHIIHFWLYHGHFLVLRQVLQWKHSUHVHQWWLPHWRDYRLGXQGHVLUDEOHRXW
FRPHVLQWKHQHDUIXWXUH
7KLVUHVHDUFKSUHVHQWVUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQFDSDELOLWLHVIRUVKRUWWHUPRSHUDWLRQDO
GHFLVLRQPDNLQJRISDWLHQWFDUHSURFHVVHVLQKRVSLWDOVDQGWKHSRVVLEOHZD\VWRUXQDOWHU
QDWLYH VFHQDULRV DQG HYDOXDWH WKHLU UHVXOWV WR FRPH XS ZLWK WKH PRVW HIIHFWLYH VROXWLRQ
FRQVLGHULQJ YDULRXV IDFWRUV 7KLV WKHVLV DOVR SURYLGHV WRRO VXSSRUW EDVHG RQ D OHDGLQJ
VLPXODWLRQ HQYLURQPHQW QDPHO\ $UHQD 7KH WRROVXSSRUWHG PHWKRGRORJ\ LV HYDOXDWHG
WKURXJKDUHDOLVWLFFDUGLDFFDUHSURFHVVLQDQ2QWDULRFRPPXQLW\KRVSLWDOZLWKHQFRXUDJ
LQJUHVXOWV

$EVWUDFW  L


$FNQRZOHGJPHQW

)LUVWDQGIRUHPRVW,ZRXOGOLNHWRH[SUHVVP\VLQFHUHJUDWLWXGHWRP\VXSHUYLVRU3URIHV
VRU'DQLHO$P\RW IRUKLV FRQWLQXRXVVXSSRUW GXULQJP\PDVWHUV VWXGLHV ,DP VRKRQ
RUHGWRKDYHH[SHULHQFHGWKHVXSHUYLVLRQRIVRPHRQH,WUXO\DGPLUHDVDQH[SHUWWKLQNHU
DQGKXPDQEHLQJ7KLV GLVVHUWDWLRQGHILQLWHO\ ZRXOGKDYHQRWEHHQSRVVLEOHZLWKRXWKLV
HIIHFWLYH JXLGDQFH SDWLHQFH PRWLYDWLRQ HQWKXVLDVP DQG HQFRXUDJHPHQW , ZLOO DOZD\V
UHPDLQJUDWHIXOWRKLPIRUWKHUHVWRIP\OLIH
,ZRXOGOLNHWRWKDQNWKH2VOHUSURMHFWWHDPDQGHVSHFLDOO\$ODLQ0RXWWKDPIRU
JLYLQJPHWKHRSSRUWXQLW\WRZRUNLQKLVWHDPDQGIRUSURYLGLQJPHZLWKWKHHVVHQWLDOV
UHTXLUHG IRU FRQGXFWLQJ WKLV UHVHDUFK +LV FRQVWDQW HIIRUW DQG LQFUHGLEOH PRWLYDWLRQ IRU
JXLGLQJWKHWHDPLQDFKLHYLQJRXUJRDOVZHUHWUXO\LQVSLULQJ
,ZRXOGOLNHWRH[SUHVVP\GHHSHVWDSSUHFLDWLRQWR5HQDXG%RXJXHQJ7FKHPHXEH
IRUWKHEULOOLDQFHRIKLVPLQGDQGLGHDVIRUKLVJHQHURVLW\LQVKDULQJKLVZLGHNQRZOHGJH
RQHYHU\OLIHUHODWHGFRPSRQHQWDQGIRUOLJKWJXLGLQJP\ZD\WKURXJKWKH GDUN ZKLFK
KDSSHQHGDORW ,DPVRWKDQNIXOIRUDOOKLVNLQGQHVV
$ VSHFLDO WKDQNV WR $OH[DQGUH 2XHOOHW 'LUHFWRU RI PRGHOLQJ VROXWLRQV DW 7UHO
OLV\VIRUKLVFRQWULEXWLRQVLQVWLPXODWLQJFRQVWUXFWLYHVXJJHVWLRQVDQGIRUEHLQJVXSSRUW
LYHRIWKHZKROHUHVHDUFK+LVYDOXDEOHDQGSUHFLRXVNQRZOHGJHKDVGHILQLWHO\IDFLOLWDWHG
ERWKWKHOHDUQLQJDQGH[SHULPHQWDWLRQSURFHVVEHKLQGWKLVUHVHDUFK
, RZH P\ GHHSHVW JUDWLWXGH WR P\ EHORYHG IDPLO\ ZLWKRXW ZKRP QRQH RI WKLV
FRXOGKDYHEHHQSRVVLEOH7RP\SDUHQWVZKRKDYHEHHQLQFUHGLEO\VXSSRUWLYHDQGKDYH
EHHQP\PDLQPRWLYDWLRQP\PRWKHU)DUDQJLVZKRP,KDYHDOZD\VORRNHGXSWRDQG
ZKRKDVVKRZQPHKRZWRVWD\VWURQJDQGPDNHWKHLPSRVVLEOHEHFRPHSRVVLEOHP\ID
WKHU0DQVRXUZKRLQVSLUHGPHWRUHDFKP\GUHDPVDQGZKRKDVDOZD\VFDXJKWPHZKHQ
,ZDVIDOOLQJDQGWRP\ORYHO\VLVWHU6HWDUHKZKREURXJKWPHLQILQLWHMR\DQGHQGOHVV
FDUH

$FNQRZOHGJPHQW  LL


/DVW EXW QRW OHDVW , ZRXOG OLNH WR WKDQN 16(5& DQG WKH %XVLQHVV ,QWHOOLJHQFH
1HWZRUNIRUIXQGLQJWKLVZRUNDQGWKH8QLYHUVLW\RI2WWDZDIRUSURYLGLQJWKHUHTXLUHG
IDFLOLWLHVDQGDJUHDWHQYLURQPHQWLQZKLFKWKHVWXGHQWVDUHHQDEOHGWRZRUNSURGXFWLYHO\
WRZDUGVUDLVLQJWKHLUDFDGHPLFH[SHULHQFH


$FNQRZOHGJPHQW  LLL


7DEOHRI&RQWHQWV

$EVWUDFWL

$FNQRZOHGJPHQWLL

7DEOHRI&RQWHQWVLY

/LVWRI)LJXUHVYLL

/LVWRI7DEOHVYLLL

/LVWRI$FURQ\PVL[

&KDSWHU ,QWURGXFWLRQ
 &RQWH[WDQG0RWLYDWLRQ
 5HVHDUFK4XHVWLRQ
 6LPXODWLRQV
 5HVHDUFK0HWKRGRORJ\
 7KHVLV&RQWULEXWLRQV
 7KHVLV2XWOLQH

&KDSWHU %DFNJURXQG
 7\SHVRI6LPXODWLRQ
 7LPH6WDWLFYV'\QDPLF
 6WDWH'LVFUHWHYV&RQWLQXRXV
 5DQGRPQHVV'HWHUPLQLVWLFYV6WRFKDVWLF
 'LIIHUHQW7\SHVRI6\VWHP%HKDYLRXU
 :KDWLVD:DUP8S3HULRG"
 :KDWLVD5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ"
 5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ6RIWZDUH$SSOLFDWLRQV
 $UHQD
 ,%0%XVLQHVV3URFHVV0DQDJHU
 $Q\/RJLF
 6LPXODWLRQ2XWSXW3UHFLVLRQDQG&RQILGHQFH
 6DPSOLQJ3URFHVV
 &HQWUDO/LPLW7KHRUHP
 6DPSOLQJ(UURU0HDVXUHPHQWV

7DEOHRI&RQWHQWV  LY


 6WRFKDVWLF6LPXODWLRQD6DPSOLQJ3URFHVV
 6XPPDU\

&KDSWHU /LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ
 6HOHFWLRQ0HWKRGRORJ\
 )LOWHULQJ0HWKRGRORJ\
 2YHUYLHZ
 &RPSDULVRQDQG$QDO\VLV
 5HDOWLPH6LPXODWLRQVLQ+HDOWKFDUH
 6LPXODWLRQ0RGHOLQJLQ+HDOWKFDUH
 &KDOOHQJHV/LPLWDWLRQVDQG5HVWULFWLRQVRI6LPXODWLRQVIRU+HDOWKFDUH
 &RPSOHPHQWDU\3DSHUV
 6XPPDU\

&KDSWHU 5HDOWLPH6LPXODWLRQVLQ+HDOWKFDUH
 5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ6WHSV2YHUYLHZ
 6WHSVRI3KDVH0RGHO&UHDWLRQ
 'HILQLQJWKH3UREOHP
 &UHDWLQJD&RQFHSWXDO0RGHO
 &UHDWLQJD6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO
 'DWD&ROOHFWLRQ
 'DWD,QSXW
 6LPXODWLRQ6HWXS
 0RGHO9DOLGDWLRQDQG9HULILFDWLRQ
 6WHSVRI3KDVH0RGHO([HFXWLRQ
 5XQQLQJWKH%DVHFDVHDQG:KDWLI6FHQDULRV
 2XWSXW$QDO\VLV
 0DNLQJ'HFLVLRQV
 7DNLQJ$FWLRQV
 6XPPDU\

&KDSWHU &UHDWLRQRID5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO
 6HOHFWHG&DUH3URFHVV
 'HILQHWKH3UREOHP
 &RQVWUXFWLQJD&RQFHSWXDO0RGHO
 ,QWHUPHGLDWH0RGHO
 6LPSOLILFDWLRQ*XLGHOLQHV
 &UHDWLQJD6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO
 &RQYHUVLRQ*XLGHOLQHV
 $GGLWLRQDO0RGXOHV
 2EVHUYDWLRQVDERXW0DSSLQJV
 'DWD&ROOHFWLRQDQG'DWD,QSXW

7DEOHRI&RQWHQWV  Y


 +LVWRULFDO'DWD
 ,QLWLDO6WDWH'DWD
 6LPXODWLRQ6HWXS
 5XQ/HQJWK
 1XPEHURI5HSOLFDWLRQV
 0RGHO9DOLGDWLRQDQG9HULILFDWLRQ
 6XPPDU\

&KDSWHU ([HFXWLRQRI6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO
 5XQQLQJWKH%DVH&DVHDQG:KDWLI6FHQDULRV
 'HILQLQJ&ULWHULD
 %DVH&DVH6LPXODWLRQ5XQDQG5HVXOWV
 :KDW,I6FHQDULR5XQVDQG5HVXOWV
 2XWSXW$QDO\VLV0DNLQJ'HFLVLRQVDQG7DNLQJ$FWLRQV
 6XPPDU\

&KDSWHU &RPSDULVRQ
 2EMHFWLYHVDQG6FRSHV
 :DUP8SLQ5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQV
 5XQ6HWXSDQG:KDW,I6FHQDULRV
 9DOLGDWLRQRIWKH0RGHO
 'LVFXVVLRQ
 /LPLWDWLRQVDQG7KUHDWVWR9DOLGLW\
 &RQVWUXFW9DOLGLW\
 ,QWHUQDO9DOLGLW\
 ([WHUQDOYDOLGLW\
 6XPPDU\

&KDSWHU &RQFOXVLRQV
 &RQWULEXWLRQV
 )XWXUH:RUN

5HIHUHQFHV

$SSHQGL[$$UHQD6LPXODWLRQ0RGHORI3DWLHQW)ORZ

7DEOHRI&RQWHQWV  YL


/LVWRI)LJXUHV

)LJXUH 'HVLJQ6FLHQFHLQLQIRUPDWLRQV\VWHPVUHVHDUFK +HYQHU>@ 


)LJXUH 5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ&\FOH
)LJXUH $UHQD,QWHUIDFH
)LJXUH 5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ6WHSV
)LJXUH 5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ&\FOH
)LJXUH :DUPXS3HULRGDQG6WHDG\6WDWH>@
)LJXUH /HQJWKRI6WD\LQ2VOHU+RVSLWDO>@
)LJXUH &DUGLDF3DWLHQW)ORZLQ2VOHU+RVSLWDO
)LJXUH 8VHRI6LPXODWLRQLQWKH/DUJHU2VOHU3URMHFW
)LJXUH 2YHUYLHZRI%3010RGHORI&DUGLDF&DUH3URFHVV
)LJXUH *XLGHOLQHVIRU0DSSLQJD%XVLQHVV3URFHVV0RGHOWRD6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO
)LJXUH &UHDWLQJDQ,QWHUPHGLDWH &RQFHSWXDO 0RGHOIURPD%3013URFHVV
0RGHO
)LJXUH &RQYHUVLRQRI/DQHWR5HVRXUFH
)LJXUH 6WDUW1RGHWR&UHDWH0RGXOH(QG1RGHWR'LVFDUG0RGXOH
)LJXUH 0DSSLQJWKH,QWHUPHGLDWH0RGHOWRDQ$UHQD6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO
)LJXUH 5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ,QLWLDOL]DWLRQIRU4XHXHVDQG3URFHVV'XUDWLRQ
)LJXUH 5HDOWLPH6LPXODWLRQ,QLWLDOL]DWLRQRI5HVRXUFH6FKHGXOLQJ
)LJXUH $UHQD3URFHVVIRU0RQLWRULQJWKH5HTXLUHG1XPEHURI5HSOLFDWLRQV
)LJXUH $QLPDWLRQRIWKH6LPXODWLRQ0RGHOIRU9HULILFDWLRQLQ$UHQD
)LJXUH %LUGV(\H9LHZRIWKH6LPXODWLRQ0RGHOLQ$UHQD


/LVWRI)LJXUHV  YLL


/LVWRI7DEOHV

7DEOH 7LPH6SHQWLQ(PHUJHQF\5RRPLQ2QWDULR&DQDGD>@
7DEOH 3DSHU6HOHFWLRQ
7DEOH 6XPPDU\RI5HODWHG:RUN
7DEOH /HQJWKRI6WD\LQWKH(PHUJHQF\'HSDUWPHQWRI2VOHUV%UDPSWRQ&LYLF
6LWH 0DUFK >@
7DEOH &RQFHSW&RQYHUVLRQ$FWLYLW\
7DEOH &RQFHSW&RQYHUVLRQ/DQHYV5HVRXUFHV
7DEOH &RQFHSW&RQYHUVLRQ&RQQHFWRUV
7DEOH &RQFHSW&RQYHUVLRQ*DWHZD\YV'HFLVLRQ0RGXOH
7DEOH &RQFHSW&RQYHUVLRQ(QGLQJWKH)ORZ
7DEOH )LQDO$YHUDJH9DOXHVRIWKH2XWSXWV
7DEOH $YHUDJH:DLWLQJ7LPHRI3DWLHQWVSHU(DFK$FWLYLW\
7DEOH 1XPEHURI3DWLHQWV'LVFKDUJHGIURP('DQG&:
7DEOH 7RWDO5HVRXUFH&RVWV
7DEOH :KDWLI6FHQDULR5XQ5HVXOWV
7DEOH 2SW4XHVW2SWLPL]LQJ2XWSXW5HVXOWV
7DEOH &RPSDULVRQZLWK5HODWHG:RUN
7DEOH 7KHVLV$SSURDFK


/LVWRI7DEOHV  YLLL


/LVWRI$FURQ\PV

 $FURQ\P 'HILQLWLRQ
 $+3 $QDO\WLF+LHUDUFK\3URFHVV
 %3 %XVLQHVV3URFHVV
 %30 %XVLQHVV3URFHVV0DQDJHU
 %301 %XVLQHVV3URFHVV0RGHODQG1RWDWLRQ
 &&/ &DUGLDF&DWKHWHUL]DWLRQ/DE
 &7$6 &DQDGLDQ7ULDJHDQG$FXLW\6FDOH
 &9 &RHIILFLHQWRI9DULDWLRQ
 &: &DUGLRORJ\:DUG
 '(6 'LVFUHWH(YHQW6LPXODWLRQ
 '66 'HFLVLRQ6XSSRUW6\VWHP
 (' (PHUJHQF\'HSDUWPHQW
 (5 (PHUJHQF\5RRP
 ,&8 ,QWHQVLYH&DUH8QLW
 /:%6 /HDYH:LWKRXW%HLQJ6HHQ
 02( 0DUJLQRI(UURU
 1('2&6 1DWLRQDO(PHUJHQF\'HSDUWPHQW2YHUFURZGLQJ6FDOH
 2' 2XWSDWLHQW'HSDUWPHQW
 25 2SHUDWLRQ5RRP
 3$1 3URFHVV$QDO\]HU
 3&, 3HUFXWDQHRXV&RURQDU\,QWHUYHQWLRQ
 7/ 7HVW/DERUDWRULHV
 7236,6 7HFKQLTXH2UGHUHG3UHIHUHQFHE\6LPLODULW\WRWKH,GHDO6ROXWLRQ
 9%$ 9LVXDO%$6,&IRU$SSOLFDWLRQV


/LVWRI$FURQ\PV  L[


&KDSWHU ,QWURGXFWLRQ

7KLV WKHVLV SUHVHQWV D QRYHO DQG WRROVXSSRUWHG UHDOWLPH VLPXODWLRQ DSSURDFK IRU
KHDOWKFDUHSURFHVVHVLQRUGHUWRVXSSRUWVKRUWWHUPRSHUDWLRQDOGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ

 &RQWH[WDQG0RWLYDWLRQ
5HFHQWO\LPSURYHPHQWLQSDWLHQWFDUHKDVEHHQKLJKO\YDOXHGDQGKDVGUDZQDORWRIDW
WHQWLRQ ZLWKLQ WKH KHDOWKFDUH GRPDLQ ,PSURYHPHQW LQ KRVSLWDO SURFHVV SHUIRUPDQFH LQ
FUHDVHVWKHHIILFLHQF\DQGSURGXFWLYLW\RIWKHRYHUDOOKRVSLWDODVZHOODVWKHSDWLHQWVDWLV
IDFWLRQOHYHO2QHRIWKHSRVVLEOHZD\VRIPHDVXULQJWKHTXDOLW\RISHUIRUPDQFHLQRSHUD
WLRQDQGPDQDJHPHQWSURFHVVHV RUDWOHDVWLWVRXWFRPH LVWKURXJKWKHSDWLHQWVDWLVIDFWLRQ
OHYHO>@+RZHYHUSUHFLVHDQDO\VLVRISURFHVVRXWFRPHVFDQKHOSHOXFLGDWHGHILFLHQFLHV
DW WKH V\VWHP OHYHO 0DQDJHUV ZLOO WKHQ EH DEOH WR ILQG DSSURDFKHV DQG PDNH GHFLVLRQV
WKDWZLOOKHOSPLQLPL]LQJWKHVHGHILFLHQFLHV3DWLHQWZDLWLQJWLPHLVRQHRIWKHPRVWLP
SRUWDQWIDFWRUVLQWKHSDWLHQWVDWLVIDFWLRQOHYHO>@$Q\UDLVHRIWKLVIDFWRUZLOODOVRKDYH
D VLJQLILFDQW LPSDFW RQ FRVW 7KLV FRVW GRHV QRW RQO\ LQYROYH PRQHWDU\ ORVV LW DOVR FDQ
UHVXOW LQ OLIHWKUHDWHQLQJ FRQVHTXHQFHV >@ 7DEOH  VKRZV WKH DYHUDJH SDWLHQW ZDLWLQJ
WLPHIRUHDFK&DQDGLDQ7ULDJHDQG$FXLW\6FDOH &7$6 OHYHOLQKRVSLWDOVDFURVV2QWDU
LR &DQDGD 7KLV WDEOH KLJKOLJKWV WKDW WKH SDWLHQW ZDLWLQJ WLPH IRU DGPLWWHG SDWLHQWV LV
TXLWHKLJKHUWKDQQDWLRQDOWDUJHWV

&KDSWHU,QWURGXFWLRQ&RQWH[WDQG0RWLYDWLRQ 


7DEOH 7LPH6SHQWLQ(PHUJHQF\5RRPLQ2QWDULR&DQDGD>@


0XFKFRQVLGHUDWLRQKDVEHHQGHYRWHGWR(PHUJHQF\'HSDUWPHQW (' FRQJHVWLRQLVVXHV
IRUILQGLQJHIIHFWLYHDSSURDFKHVWRUHGXFHSDWLHQWZDLWLQJWLPHV7KLVLVSDUWLFXODUO\UHOH
YDQWJLYHQWKDW('LVZKHUHDOOW\SHVRISDWLHQWVZLWKFULWLFDOKHDOWKFRQGLWLRQVQHHGWREH
SULRULWL]HGIRULPPHGLDWHFOLQLFDOVXSSRUW+RZHYHUWUDQVIHUULQJWKHSRSXODWLRQLQDKRV
SLWDOIURPRQHGHSDUWPHQWWRDQRWKHUZLWKWKHLQWHQWLRQRIORFDOO\RSWLPL]LQJWKHSDWLHQW
IORZ LQ RQH JLYHQ GHSDUWPHQW LV QRW QHFHVVDULO\ DQ HIILFLHQW RSHUDWLRQDO PDQDJHPHQW
VWUDWHJ\EHFDXVHWKHWKURXJKSXWWLPHDVZHOODVWKHWRWDOZDLWLQJWLPHIRUDSDWLHQW PD\
VWLOOUHPDLQWKHVDPH RUJHW ZRUVH  GXULQJWKHSDWLHQWVMRXUQH\ DFURVVVHYHUDO XQLWVRI
WKHKRVSLWDO*OREDORSWLPL]DWLRQVDWWKHSDWLHQWIORZOHYHOUDWKHUWKDQORFDORSWLPL]DWLRQV
DWWKHGHSDUWPHQWRUXQLWOHYHOLVZKDWVKRXOGEHWDUJHWHG:LWKUHJDUGWRWKHODWWHUREVHU
YDWLRQSDWLHQWZDLWLQJWLPHLVDYDOLGFULWHULRQIRUPHDVXULQJWKHFDUHSURFHVVHIILFLHQF\
DVREVHUYHGE\:LOOLDPVHWDO>@DQG.RL]XPLHWDO>@
,Q JHQHUDO WKURXJK D SURFHVV ZKHUH HYHQW RFFXUUHQFHV DUH SUHRUJDQL]HG DQG
VFKHGXOHG HJLQVFKHGXOHGVXUJHULHV SHUIRUPDQFHRXWFRPHSUHGLFWLRQVDUHPXFKFORV
HUWR WKHUHDO RXWFRPHV FRPSDUHGWR WKH VLWXDWLRQZKHUH HYHQWRFFXUUHQFHVDUHUDQGRP
HJ LQ HPHUJHQFLHV RU FDUGLRORJ\  'XH WR WKH UDQGRP QDWXUH RI SDWLHQW DUULYDOV LQ
HPHUJHQF\ GHSDUWPHQWV RI KRVSLWDOV PDQDJLQJ QRW RQO\ WKH (' EXW DOVR WKH RWKHU GH
SDUWPHQWVFRQQHFWHGWR('>@>@LVDFKDOOHQJLQJWDVN7KHSDWLHQWSRSXODWLRQHQWHULQJ
IURP('ZLOOVSUHDGWRDOORIWKHRWKHUGHSDUWPHQWVWRFRQWLQXHZLWKWKHUHVWRIWKHLUFDUH
SURFHVVHV
$PRQJ GLIIHUHQW W\SHV RI FOLQLFDO VHUYLFHV FDUGLRORJ\ GHSDUWPHQWV KDYH DOZD\V
EHHQRIVLJQLILFDQWLPSRUWDQFHGXHWRWKHPDJQLWXGHRIWKHFDUGLDFGLVHDVHV8UJHQWFDUH

&KDSWHU,QWURGXFWLRQ&RQWH[WDQG0RWLYDWLRQ 


SURFHVVHVDUHUHTXLUHGWRWDNHSODFHLQWLPHIRUWKHFDUGLDFSDWLHQWVDQGWKXVWLPHSOD\V
DQLPSRUWDQWUROHLQWKLVUHJDUG0RVWFDUGLDFSUREOHPVRFFXUXQH[SHFWHGO\DQGWKHUHIRUH
DORWRISDWLHQWVUHIHUUHGWRWKHFDUGLDFGHSDUWPHQWVEHJLQWKHLUMRXUQH\IURP('+RZHY
HUIRUSDWLHQWVZLWKPRUHVHYHUHKHDOWKLVVXHV LHORZHU&7$6OHYHOV WKHFDUHSURFHVV
LVQRWRYHUDIWHUWKH('7KHVHSDWLHQWVZLOOEHUHIHUUHGW\SLFDOO\WRWKHFDUGLRORJ\ZDUG
&: DQGLIQHFHVVDU\WRWKHFDUGLDFFDWKHWHUL]DWLRQODE &&/ IRUVXUJHU\
)RUVROYLQJWKHLVVXHVUHODWHGWRSDWLHQWZDLWLQJWLPHVHIIHFWLYHGHFLVLRQVVKRXOG
EHPDGHDQGDFWLRQVVKRXOGWDNHSODFHDFFRUGLQJO\0DQDJHULDOGHFLVLRQVFDQKHOSUHGXFH
WKHSDWLHQWZDLWLQJWLPHLIWKHFDQGLGDWHDFWLRQVDQGWKHLULPSDFWDUHFOHDUWRWKHGHFLVLRQ
PDNHUV 7KXV WKH VWDWHPHQW PDNLQJ WKH ULJKW GHFLVLRQV DW WKH ULJKW WLPH FDQ EHFRPH
WUXHLIWKHPHDQVIRUVXSSRUWLQJVKRUWWHUPRSHUDWLRQDOGHFLVLRQVDUHDYDLODEOH
7KH UHVHDUFK FRQGXFWHG LQ WKLV WKHVLV HPSKDVL]HV WKH HIIHFWLYHQHVV RI UHDOWLPH
VLPXODWLRQ FDSDELOLWLHV IRU VXSSRUWLQJ VKRUWWHUP RSHUDWLRQDO GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ LQ KRVSL
WDOV,QRWKHUZRUGVWKHWKHVLVIRFXVHVRQKRZSUHGLFWLQJWKHXSFRPLQJVKRUWWHUPEHKDY
LRXURIDKRVSLWDOLQDWLPHO\PDQQHUFDQKHOSVXSSRUWWKHSURFHVVRIVKRUWWHUPGHFLVLRQ
PDNLQJ$JHQHULFPRGHORIDFDUGLRORJ\GHSDUWPHQWKDVEHHQFUHDWHG$SSUR[LPDWHEXW
UHDOLVWLFLQSXWGDWDLVIHGWRWKHVLPXODWLRQPRGHODQGWKHPRGHOVWDUWVUXQQLQJXVLQJWKH
FXUUHQWVWDWHRIWKHKRVSLWDOVSURFHVVLQVWDQFHVDV LQLWLDOVWDWH7KHUHVXOWVIURP ZKDWLI
VFHQDULRV DUH REVHUYHG 7KHVH VFHQDULRV DUH DFWLRQV W\SLFDOO\ XVHG WR PLWLJDWH SRWHQWLDO
ERWWOHQHFNV DQG RYHUFRPH WKH FRQJHVWLRQ WKURXJK DQ HQWLUH FOLQLFDO SDWKZD\ +RZHYHU
WKLVZKROHSURFHGXUHLVQRWIRUDRQHWLPH VWUDWHJLF GHFLVLRQPDNLQJ)RUDPRUHHIIHF
WLYH VKRUWWHUPRURSHUDWLRQDO GHFLVLRQPDNLQJSURFHVVIUHTXHQWHYDOXDWLRQVRIWKHV\V
WHPSHUIRUPDQFHDUHUHTXLUHG+HQFHWKHV\VWHPFDQH[KLELWDPRUHWLPHO\DQGFRQWLQX
RXV DGDSWDWLRQ WR D UDQJH RI XQH[SHFWHG HYHQW RFFXUUHQFHV 8VLQJ UHDOWLPH VLPXODWLRQ
WHFKQLTXHV WKDW VXSSRUW FRQWLQXRXV VKRUWWHUP GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ UHODWHG WR SDWLHQW FDUH
SURFHVVHVDFFRUGLQJWRWKHHYHQWRFFXUUHQFHVLVWKHDLPRIWKLVUHVHDUFK
,Q WKLV UHVHDUFK D KHDOWKFDUH SURFHVV WKH :LOOLDP 2VOHU +HDOWK &HQWHU KRVSLWDO
VLPSO\ UHIHUUHG WR DV 2VOHU  ORFDWHG LQ %UDPSWRQ &DQDGD KDV EHHQ WDNHQ DV D FDVH
VWXG\2VOHULVDODUJHFRPPXQLW\KRVSLWDODQGZDVFKRVHQWREHDUHSUHVHQWDWLYHRIDW\S
LFDO KRVSLWDO DQG RI LWV LVVXHV 2QH RI WKHLU PRVW FRPPRQ HQGWRHQG FOLQLFDO SDWKZD\V
LQYROYLQJFDUGLDFSDWLHQWVLVEHLQJXVHGLQWKLVWKHVLV7KHSDWLHQWHQWUDQFHSRLQWLVIURP

&KDSWHU,QWURGXFWLRQ&RQWH[WDQG0RWLYDWLRQ 


WKHFDUGLDFHPHUJHQF\GHSDUWPHQW (' DQGDIWHUUHTXLUHGLQYHVWLJDWLRQRQSK\VLFDOVWD


WXVLVGRQHWKHSDWLHQWLVWUDQVIHUUHGWRWKHFDUGLRORJ\ZDUG &: ZKHUHKHVKHZRXOGEH
DVVLJQHGDEHG7KHSDWLHQWLVWKHQWDNHQWRWKHFDUGLDFFDWKHWHUL]DWLRQODE &&/ IRUDQ
DQJLRJUDP DQGRU D 3HUFXWDQHRXV &RURQDU\ ,QWHUYHQWLRQ 3&,  EHIRUH UHWXUQLQJ WR WKH
FDUGLRORJ\ZDUGIRUUHFRYHU\EHIRUHEHLQJGLVFKDUJHG7KLVSDWKZD\LVPRGHOHGXVLQJD
OHDGLQJFRPPHUFLDOVLPXODWLRQWRROQDPHO\$UHQDY

 5HVHDUFK4XHVWLRQ
7KHUHVHDUFKTXHVWLRQDGGUHVVHGLQWKLVWKHVLVLVDVIROORZV,VWKHUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQRI
FOLQLFDOSURFHVVHVIHDVLEOHLQWKHFRQWH[WRIDSDWLHQWFDUHSURFHVVZLWKZDLWWLPHSUHGLF
WLRQVUHSUHVHQWHGLQDZD\WKDWVXSSRUWVVKRUWWHUPRSHUDWLRQDOGHFLVLRQPDNLQJUHODWHG
WRUHVRXUFHDOORFDWLRQ"
7KHHPSKDVLVLQRXUUHVHDUFKTXHVWLRQLVRQDVVHVVLQJWKHIHDVLELOLW\RIUHDOWLPH
VLPXODWLRQFDSDELOLWLHV7KHUHTXLUHPHQWVIRUEXLOGLQJDUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQPRGHOZLOO
EHLQYHVWLJDWHGDQGLIWKHIHDVLELOLW\RIWKHDSSURDFKLVFRQILUPHGPRUHLQYHVWLJDWLRQZLOO
EHGHYRWHGWRWKHEHQHILWVRIXVLQJWKLVDSSURDFKLQIDFLOLWDWLQJRSHUDWLRQDOGHFLVLRQPDN
LQJ

 6LPXODWLRQV
7KHSDWLHQWZDLWLQJWLPHSUREOHPRIWHQRFFXUVDVDUHVXOWRIDOORFDWLQJDOLPLWHGQXPEHU
RI UHVRXUFHV WR XQOLPLWHG RU XQSUHGLFWDEOH QXPEHUV RI SDWLHQWV $Q HIIHFWLYH DSSURDFK
OHDGLQJWRIDFLOLWDWLQJRSHUDWLRQDOGHFLVLRQPDNLQJLVHVVHQWLDOLQWKLVFRQWH[W6LPXODWLRQ
LVRQHRIWKHPRVWHIIHFWLYHWHFKQLTXHVIRUGHFLVLRQPDNLQJDQGLVLQFUHDVLQJO\EHLQJXVHG
LQWKHKHDOWKFDUHGRPDLQ6LPXODWLRQHQDEOHVXVWRGHVLJQDQGDQDO\]HWKHSURFHVVHVLQ
YROYHGLQDFHUWDLQFRQWH[WZLWKRXWQHFHVVDULO\LPSOHPHQWLQJWKHDFWXDOGHVLJQV,WDOVR
JLYHVXVDQRSSRUWXQLW\WRUXQZKDWLIVFHQDULRVDQGREVHUYHWKHFRQVHTXHQFHVRISR
WHQWLDODOWHUQDWLYHDFWLRQV7KLVFDQWDNHDZD\WKHULVNDQGWKHFRVWRIDFWXDOLPSOHPHQWD
WLRQDQG\HWVWLOOJLYHXVDKROLVWLFYLHZRIWKHV\VWHPXQGHUREVHUYDWLRQ&RPSDULQJGLI
IHUHQWVFHQDULRRXWFRPHVKHOSXQGHUVWDQGWKHLPSDFWRIDOWHUQDWLYHVPDNHGHFLVLRQVDQG

&KDSWHU,QWURGXFWLRQ5HVHDUFK4XHVWLRQ 


WDNHDFWLRQVDFFRUGLQJO\$SSURSULDWHGHFLVLRQPDNLQJFDQLPSURYHWKHRYHUDOORUJDQL]D
WLRQDOFRQWUROLQKHDOWKFDUHDQGHOVHZKHUH
6LPXODWLRQ LV DERXW NQRZLQJ KLVWRULFDO LQIRUPDWLRQ SUHGLFWLQJ IXWXUH RXWFRPHV
DQG JLYLQJ VXJJHVWLRQV IRU V\VWHP SHUIRUPDQFH LPSURYHPHQW 5HDOWLPH VLPXODWLRQ LV
DERXW FRQVHFXWLYH VLPXODWLRQ UXQV LQ VKRUWHU SHULRGV DQG DERXW WKH SUHGLFWLRQ RI QHDU
IXWXUHRXWFRPHVE\XVLQJWKHKLVWRULFDOLQIRUPDWLRQUHODWHGWRWKHEHKDYLRXURIWKHFRP
SRQHQWVRIWKHV\VWHPDQGWKHFXUUHQW SUHVHQW VWDWHRIWKHV\VWHP:KDWLIVFHQDULRV
FDQ H[HFXWH DJDLQVW WKH VLPXODWLRQ PRGHO DQG SURYLGH LPSDFW DQDO\VLV 7KH TXLFNHU WKH
VLPXODWLRQ UXQV DUH WKH PRUH IUHTXHQW WKH GHFLVLRQPDNLQJ SURFHVV FDQ EH SHUIRUPHG
DQGWKHPRUHWLPHO\DFWLRQVDUHOLNHO\WREHWDNHQIRUV\VWHPLPSURYHPHQW
7KHUH DUH KRZHYHU VSHFLILF FKDOOHQJHV GXH WR WKH LQYROYHPHQW RI PDQ\ KXPDQ
IDFWRUVDQGH[FHSWLRQVLQKHDOWKFDUHSURFHVVHV7KXVVLPXODWLQJFDUHSURFHVVHVPLJKWEH
PRUH FRPSOH[ WKDQ VLPXODWLRQV LQ RWKHU LQGXVWULHV HJ WUDQVSRUWDWLRQ ILQDQFHV DQG
PDQXIDFWXULQJ 0RUHRYHUWKHRXWFRPHUHVXOWVVKRXOGEHUHOLDEOHHQRXJKWREHDQDO\]HG
IRUSRVVLEOHDOWHUQDWLYHVDQGGHFLVLRQPDNLQJLQDFRQWH[WZKHUHKXPDQOLYHVDUHHDVLO\DW
VWDNH 7KHUHIRUHWKHLQSXW GDWDVKRXOGDOVR EH VXIILFLHQWO\ DFFXUDWH LQWHUPVRITXDOLW\
DQGWLPHOLQHVV LQRUGHUWRKDYHDUHOLDEOHRXWFRPHUHVXOWV
1RWHWKDWWKLVWKHVLVIRFXVHVRQVLPXODWLRQVLQVXSSRUWWRGD\WRGD\RSHUDWLRQDO
GHFLVLRQPDNLQJ HJE\EULQJLQJLQPRUHVWDIIRURSHQLQJFORVLQJEHGV ZLWKRXWWU\LQJ
WR RSWLPL]H SURFHVV GHILQLWLRQV 7KLV LV GLIIHUHQW IURP PRVW RI WKH OLWHUDWXUH RQ VLPXOD
WLRQV LQ KHDOWKFDUHZKLFKIRFXVHVRQVWUDWHJLF GHFLVLRQPDNLQJ HJWKURXJKLPSURYH
PHQWVWRSURFHVVHVVFKHGXOLQJVXUJHULHVRUUHVWUXFWXULQJRIXQLWV &DUWHUDQG%ODNHKDYH
VWXGLHG WKH XVH RI VLPXODWLRQV IRU VWUDWHJLF GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ DV ZHOO DV VLPXODWLRQ FKDO
OHQJHVLQWKDWDUHD>@7KH\KDYHDOVRSLRQHHUHGWKHXVHRIVLPXODWLRQVIRUSDWLHQWIORZV
LQ WKH HPHUJHQF\ GHSDUWPHQW RI WKH &KLOGUHQ +RVSLWDO IRU (DVWHUQ 2QWDULR LQ >@
EXWWRRXUNQRZOHGJHWKH\KDYHQRWVWXGLHGWKHXVHRIUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQVLQDQRSHUD
WLRQDOFRQWH[W

 5HVHDUFK0HWKRGRORJ\
)RU FRQGXFWLQJ WKLV UHVHDUFK ZH XVH D PHWKRGRORJ\ EDVHG RQ WKH 'HVLJQ 6FLHQFH DS
SURDFKSURSRVHGE\+HYQHUDQGLOOXVWUDWHGLQ)LJXUH1RWHLQSDUWLFXODUWKHUHOHYDQFH

&KDSWHU,QWURGXFWLRQ5HVHDUFK0HWKRGRORJ\ 


DQG ULJRU F\FOHV LQ WKLV DSSURDFK )URP WKH 'HVLJQ 6FLHQFH PHWKRGRORJ\ ZH FKRVH WKH
IROORZLQJVWHSVWRIROORZIRUFRQGXFWLQJWKLVUHVHDUFK
 6HOHFWDSUREOHP EXVLQHVVQHHGVIURPWKHKHDOWKFDUHHQYLURQPHQW 
 5HYLHZWKHOLWHUDWXUHRQWKHSUREOHP IRXQGDWLRQVDQGPHWKRGRORJLHV 
 3URSRVHDVROXWLRQWRWKHSUREOHPDQGGHILQHLWVVSHFLILFUHTXLUHPHQWV
 'HVLJQDQGGHYHORSPHQWRIWKHSURSRVHGVROXWLRQ GHYHORSEXLOG 
 $QDO\]HDQGHYDOXDWHWKHUHVXOWV MXVWLI\HYDOXDWH 



)LJXUH 'HVLJQ6FLHQFHLQLQIRUPDWLRQV\VWHPVUHVHDUFK +HYQHU>@ 

7KLVWKHVLVUHVHDUFKEHJLQVZLWKDJHQHULFLQWURGXFWLRQWRRQHRIWKHPRVWFRPPRQLVVXH
UHFHQWO\IDFHGE\PDQ\KRVSLWDOVZKLFKLVWKHUHGXFWLRQRISDWLHQWZDLWLQJWLPH(DUOLHU
LQWKLVFKDSWHUWKHPRWLYDWLRQVIRUVHOHFWLQJWKHZDLWLQJWLPHSUREOHPZHUHGLVFXVVHG  
DQG WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI RSHUDWLRQDO GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ ZDV KLJKOLJKWHG IRU SDWLHQW ZDLWLQJ
WLPHPDQDJHPHQW
$V\VWHPDWLFOLWHUDWXUHUHYLHZZDVFRQGXFWHGWRJHWLQVLJKWLQWRWKHUHOHYDQWZRUN
GRQHVRIDUUHJDUGLQJWKHPRVWFRPPRQKHDOWKFDUHLVVXHV HJSDWLHQWZDLWLQJWLPH DQG

&KDSWHU,QWURGXFWLRQ5HVHDUFK0HWKRGRORJ\ 


GLIIHUHQWDSSURDFKHVWDNHQWRVROYHWKHSUREOHPV  7KHXVHRIVLPXODWLRQVLQWKLVFRQ
WH[WZDVDOVRVWXGLHG5HDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQVDUHVXJJHVWHGDVDQHIIHFWLYHVROXWLRQIRURS
HUDWLRQDOGHFLVLRQPDNLQJLQRUGHUWRKHOSPDQDJHWKHZDLWLQJWLPHSUREOHPDQGVSHFLILF
UHTXLUHPHQWVIRUGHVLJQLQJDUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQPRGHODUHLGHQWLILHG  7KHVXJJHVWHG
PRGHO KDV EHHQ GHVLJQHG DQG GHYHORSHG IRU D UHDOOLIH HQWLUH FOLQLFDO SDWKZD\   7KH
UHVXOWVIURPWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRIWKHVXJJHVWHGDSSURDFKDUHDQDO\]HG)LQDOO\DFRQFOXVLRQ
LVPDGHEDVHGRQWKHH[SHULPHQWUHVXOWVDQGWKHOLPLWDWLRQVRQWKHZD\RIFRQGXFWLQJWKH
UHVHDUFKDUHVKDUHGDORQJZLWKVXJJHVWHGIXWXUHZRUN  

 7KHVLV&RQWULEXWLRQV
7KHPDLQFRQWULEXWLRQRIWKLVWKHVLVLVDGHPRQVWUDWLRQWKDWUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQVKDYHWKH
SRWHQWLDO WR VXSSRUW WLPHO\ VKRUWWHUP RSHUDWLRQDO GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ IRU SDWLHQW FDUH SUR
FHVVHVLQKRVSLWDOV6FKHGXOLQJRIWKHUHVRXUFHVLVSDUWRI WKHRSHUDWLRQDOGHFLVLRQPDN
LQJZKLFKKDVDGLUHFWLPSDFWRQWKHSDWLHQWZDLWLQJWLPH7KHUHIRUHZHDUHDSSO\LQJRXU
UHDOWLPH VLPXODWLRQ DSSURDFK IRU PDNLQJ VKRUWWHUP GHFLVLRQV WKDW KHOS UHGXFH WKH SD
WLHQWZDLWLQJWLPHE\DGMXVWLQJWKHUHVRXUFHVFKHGXOLQJ
7KHUHDUHDOVRVHFRQGDU\FRQWULEXWLRQVRIWKLVWKHVLVKLJKOLJKWHGEHORZ
x 0HWKRGRORJ\IRUGHYHORSLQJUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQPRGHOV
x *XLGHOLQHV IRU PDSSLQJ VLPSOLI\LQJ D FOLQLFDO SURFHVV H[SUHVVHG ZLWK WKH
%XVLQHVV3URFHVV0RGHODQG1RWDWLRQ %301 LQWRDFRQFHSWXDOPRGHOZLWK
DGGLWLRQDOPDSSLQJVWRDVLPXODWLRQPRGHOLQ$UHQD
x 5HDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQ PRGHO RIDQHQWLUHFOLQLFDO SDWKZD\WDNHQIURPDUHDO
OLIHSDWLHQWIORZ
x 5HDOWLPH VLPXODWLRQ FDSDELOLWLHV EDVHG RQ D FRPPHUFLDO VLPXODWLRQ WRRO
$UHQD WKDWLQLWLDOO\GLGQRWVXSSRUWUHDOWLPHIHDWXUHV
x ([WHUQDO DFFHVV WR WKHLQSXWGDWDRIWKHVLPXODWLRQ PRGHO ZKLFKHQDEOHV WKH
SRVVLELOLW\RILQWHJUDWLQJWKHPRGHOZLWKDGDWDEDVHWKDWFROOHFWVWKHUHDOWLPH
LQIRUPDWLRQRQSDWLHQWIORZLQVWDQFHV
x $XWRPDWHGDSSURDFKIRUFKRRVLQJWKHQXPEHURIUHSOLFDWLRQVIRUDVLPXODWLRQ
PRGHOEDVHGRQWKHUHTXLUHPHQWVRQGHVLUDEOHSUHFLVLRQRIWKHRXWSXWGDWD

&KDSWHU,QWURGXFWLRQ7KHVLV&RQWULEXWLRQV 


x ,QWURGXFWLRQVHWXSDQGHYDOXDWLRQRISRVVLEOHDOWHUQDWLYHVFHQDULRVWKDWFRUUH
VSRQGWR FDQGLGDWHVKRUWWHUPGHFLVLRQV WKDWKDYHWKHSRWHQWLDOWRLPSDFW WKH
IXWXUHVWDWHRIWKHSURFHVV

7KH FRUH LGHDV RI WKLV WKHVLV DUH SXEOLVKHG LQ D SDSHU SUHVHQWHG DW WKH  6XPPHU
&RPSXWHU 6LPXODWLRQ &RQIHUHQFH DQG :RUN LQ 3URJUHVV 6&6&  DQG :,3  
5HDOWLPH6LPXODWLRQVWR6XSSRUW2SHUDWLRQDO'HFLVLRQ0DNLQJLQ+HDOWKFDUHLQRUGHUWR
VKDUHWKHNQRZOHGJHJDLQHGWKURXJKWKLVUHVHDUFK>@$SRVWHUEDVHGRQWKLVZRUNZDV
DOVRSUHVHQWHGE\WKHWKHVLVDXWKRUDWWKH*UDGXDWHSRVWHUFRPSHWLWLRQRIWKH)DFXOW\RI
(QJLQHHULQJRIWKH8QLYHUVLW\RI2WWDZDLQ0DUFK5HDOWLPH6LPXODWLRQVRI3DWLHQW
&DUH3URFHVVHV6XSSRUWIRU'HFLVLRQ0DNLQJ,WUHFHLYHGWKHVHFRQGEHVWSRVWHUDZDUG
LQWKH&RPSXWHU6FLHQFHFDWHJRU\

 7KHVLV2XWOLQH
,Q &KDSWHU  EDVLF FRQFHSWV LQ VLPXODWLRQ DQG VRPH VWDWLVWLFDO WKHRULHV DUH GLVFXVVHG
ZKLOHLQ&KDSWHUDOLWHUDWXUHUHYLHZLVFRQGXFWHGIRUWKHZRUNUHODWHGWRWKLVUHVHDUFK
&KDSWHUIRFXVHVRQWKHWZRPDLQSKDVHV DQGWKHLUUHODWHGVWHSV RIDPHWKRGRORJ\IRU
GHILQLQJDSURSHUDQGDFFXUDWHUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQPRGHO ,Q&KDSWHU DQG&KDSWHU
WKHWZRUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQSKDVHVDUHGLVFXVVHGWKURXJKDQH[SHULPHQWGRQHIRUDUHDO
FOLQLFDOSDWKZD\'LIIHUHQWZKDWLIVFHQDULRVDUHH[SORUHGDQGWKHLUUHVXOWVDUHDQDO\]HG
DQGGLVFXVVHG,Q&KDSWHUDGHWDLOHGFRPSDULVRQEHWZHHQWKHFORVHO\UHODWHGZRUNDQG
RXU UHVHDUFK LV GRQH DQG WKUHDWV WR YDOLGLW\ DQG OLPLWDWLRQV IDFHG ZKLOH FRQGXFWLQJ WKH
UHVHDUFKDUHVKDUHG&KDSWHUFRQFOXGHVWKHWKHVLVDQGKLJKOLJKWVRSSRUWXQLWLHVIRUIXWXUH
ZRUN

&KDSWHU,QWURGXFWLRQ7KHVLV2XWOLQH 


&KDSWHU %DFNJURXQG

,Q WKLV FKDSWHU EDVLF VLPXODWLRQ DQG VWDWLVWLFDO FRQFHSWV UHTXLUHG IRU WKLV VWXG\ DUH GLV
FXVVHG

 7\SHVRI6LPXODWLRQ
7KHUHDUHGLIIHUHQWZD\VRIFDWHJRUL]LQJVLPXODWLRQW\SHVGHSHQGLQJRQWKHSXUSRVHDQG
DSSOLFDWLRQ RI D VLPXODWLRQ .HOWRQ HW DO >@ FODVVLI\ VLPXODWLRQ W\SHV ZLWK UHJDUG WR
WKUHHGLIIHUHQWGLPHQVLRQVWLPHVWDWHDQGUDQGRPQHVV

 7LPH6WDWLFYV'\QDPLF

,QVWDWLFPRGHOVWKHQRWLRQRIWLPHGRHVQRWH[LVWDQGWKHV\VWHPLVDQDO\]HGDVDVQDS
VKRWZKHUHDVLQG\QDPLFPRGHOVWLPHSOD\VDQLPSRUWDQWUROHDQGWKHV\VWHPVEHKDYLRXU
LVREVHUYHGRYHUWLPH8VXDOO\VLPXODWLRQPRGHOVXQGHUREVHUYDWLRQDUHG\QDPLF

 6WDWH'LVFUHWHYV&RQWLQXRXV

'LVFUHWHHYHQWVLPXODWLRQ '(6 LQYROYHVVWDWLQJWKHV\VWHPVWDWXVLQVSHFLILF GLVFUHWH 


WLPHVWHSVE\VKRZLQJDSK\VLFDOPRGHOWKURXJKPDWKHPDWLFDOWHUPV,Q'(6WKHV\VWHP
LVGHVFULEHGDVDVHTXHQWLDOHYHQWEDVHGPRGHOZKHUHWKHV\VWHPFKDQJHVWRDQHZVWDWH
DIWHUDVSHFLILFWLPHVWHSGXHWR DQ HYHQW RFFXUUHQFH 'XUDWLRQVRIVWHSV FRUUHODWHZLWK
HYHQWRFFXUUHQFHIUHTXHQFLHV,WLVDVVXPHGWKDWWKHUHLVQRHYHQWRFFXUUHQFHEHWZHHQWZR
FRQVHFXWLYHWLPHVWHSV'(6LVXVHGPDLQO\ZKHQSUHFLVHDQDO\VLVRQGHWDLOHGVWDWLVWLFDO
YDOXHVLVUHTXLUHG7KLVW\SHRIVLPXODWLRQKDVPDQ\DSSOLFDWLRQVLQIRUH[DPSOHTXHX
LQJV\VWHPVDQGSURGXFWLRQSODQQLQJ
:KHQWKHG\QDPLFEHKDYLRXURIWKHZKROHV\VWHPLVWKHPDLQIRFXVRIREVHUYD
WLRQ D FRQWLQXRXV VLPXODWLRQ LV XVHG ,Q D FRQWLQXRXV VLPXODWLRQ WKH YDULDEOHV FKDQJH
FRQWLQXRXVO\RYHUWLPHDQGWKHFRQWLQXRXVFKDQJHRIVWDWHVLVZKDWQHHGVWREHREVHUYHG
UDWKHUWKDQDWZKDWWLPHVSHFLILFVWDWHVRFFXU

&KDSWHU%DFNJURXQG7\SHVRI6LPXODWLRQ 


 5DQGRPQHVV'HWHUPLQLVWLFYV6WRFKDVWLF

'HWHUPLQLVWLFPRGHOVFRQVLVWRIVSHFLILFLQSXWVDQGRXWSXWVIRUZKLFKWKHGDWDLVQRWUDQ
GRP ,QWKHVHPRGHOVWKHUHODWLRQVKLSDPRQJGLIIHUHQWSDUDPHWHUVZLOOEHSUHFLVHO\GH
WHFWHG DQG VKRZQ WKURXJK PDWKHPDWLFDO WHUPV WKXV DOORZLQJ QR UDQGRPO\ JHQHUDWHG
QXPEHUV7KHVDPHVSHFLILFRXWSXWLVH[SHFWHGIURPJLYHQNQRZQLQSXWV HJFKHPLFDO
UHDFWLRQVRINQRZQHOHPHQWV 
6WRFKDVWLF PRGHOV RQ WKH RWKHU KDQG FRQWDLQ DW OHDVW RQH UDQGRP LQSXW 7KHVH
PRGHOVPDNHXVHRIUDQGRPQXPEHUJHQHUDWLRQ7KHFRPSRQHQWVRIWKHV\VWHPVDUHRE
VHUYHG LQGLYLGXDOO\ DQG WKHLU EHKDYLRXU LV H[SUHVVHG WKURXJK VWDWLVWLFDO GLVWULEXWLRQV
7KHVHGLVWULEXWLRQVZLOOEHJHQHUDWLQJUDQGRPQXPEHUVEXWZLWKLQDFHUWDLQUDQJHZKLFK
FRUUHVSRQGVWRWKHUDQJHRISRVVLEOHEHKDYLRXUVRIWKHV\VWHPFRPSRQHQWV
7KH SUREOHP GHILQHG IRU WKLV UHVHDUFK LV WKH LVVXH RI SDWLHQW ZDLWLQJ WLPH 7KH
V\VWHPXQGHUREVHUYDWLRQLVDFOLQLFDOFHQWHUWKDWSURYLGHVFOLQLFDOVHUYLFHVWRUDQGRPO\
DUULYLQJSDWLHQWV VWRFKDVWLFPRGHO :HZDQWWRREVHUYHWKHEHKDYLRXURIWKDWHQWHURYHU
WLPH G\QDPLFPRGHO ZKLOHDQDO\]LQJWKHV\VWHPDVDTXHXLQJV\VWHP GLVFUHWHHYHQW
PRGHO 

 'LIIHUHQW7\SHVRI6\VWHP%HKDYLRXU
'HSHQGLQJRQWKHQDWXUHRIWKHLUEHKDYLRXUWKHUHDUHJHQHUDOO\WZRW\SHVRIV\VWHPV
x 7HUPLQDWLQJV\VWHPV
x 1RQWHUPLQDWLQJV\VWHPV

$WHUPLQDWLQJV\VWHPVWDUWVLQDQHPSW\DQGLGOHVWDWHDQGLWVEHKDYLRXUZLOOFRQWLQXH
HYROYLQJXQWLOWKHV\VWHPVKXWVGRZQ$QHPSW\DQGLGOHVWDWHUHIHUVWRDVSHFLILFVWDWH
RIWKHV\VWHPLQZKLFKWKHUHDUHQRHQWLWLHVDYDLODEOHDQGDOORIWKHUHVRXUFHVDUHLGOHDQG
QRWZRUNLQJ7KHV\VWHPZRUNVGXULQJWKHZRUNLQJKRXUVGHILQHGIRULWDQGDIWHUDVSHFLI
LFSHULRGRIWLPHLWWHUPLQDWHVDQGVKXWVGRZQ$QH[DPSOHRIWKLVW\SHRIV\VWHPVLVFXV
WRPHUVHUYLFHVRIIHUHGLQEDQNVZKLFKQRUPDOO\VWDUWIURPDPILQLVKDWSPDQGUHVWDUW
IURPDQHPSW\DQGLGOHVWDWHWKHQH[WGD\

&KDSWHU%DFNJURXQG'LIIHUHQW7\SHVRI6\VWHP%HKDYLRXU 


2QWKHRWKHUKDQGWKHUHDUHQRQWHUPLQDWLQJV\VWHPVWKDWGRQRWVKXWGRZQDIWHUD
VSHFLILFSHULRGRIWLPHDQGDUHDOZD\VLQDZRUNLQJPRGH7KHUHIRUHWKHVHV\VWHPVDUH
DOPRVWQHYHUHPSW\DQGLGOHDQGWKHHQWLWLHVFDQJHWVHUYHGDWDQ\WLPH([DPSOHVRI
WKLV W\SH RI V\VWHPV LQFOXGH KRVSLWDO HPHUJHQF\ GHSDUWPHQWV DV LQ WKLV WKHVLV  DQG JDV
VWDWLRQV

 :KDWLVD:DUP8S3HULRG"
$ ZDUPXS SHULRG LV D FRPPRQO\ XVHG FRQFHSW LQ VLPXODWLRQ VWXGLHV ,Q D VLPXODWLRQ
PRGHO QRUPDOO\ ZKHQ WKH VLPXODWLRQ UXQV WKH V\VWHP VWDUWV IURP DQ HPSW\ DQG LGOH
VWDWHZKLFKLVWKHFDVHLIWKHW\SHRIV\VWHPXQGHUREVHUYDWLRQLVWHUPLQDWLQJ
+RZHYHU LI WKH V\VWHP XQGHU REVHUYDWLRQ LV D QRQWHUPLQDWLQJ V\VWHP WKH FRQ
FHSWRIZDUPXSSHULRGVDULVHV $ZDUPXSSHULRGLVWKHWUDQVLHQWVWDWHWKDWKDSSHQVDW
WKHEHJLQQLQJRIWKHVLPXODWLRQUXQ)URPWKHWLPHZKHQWKHV\VWHPVWDUWVZLWKDQHPSW\
DQG LGOH VWDWH XQWLO WKH WLPH WKH V\VWHP LV DFWXDOO\ LQ D ZRUNLQJ PRGH WKH VLPXODWLRQ
GRHV QRW UHIOHFW WKH DFWXDO V\VWHP EHKDYLRXU 6LQFH QRQWHUPLQDWLQJ V\VWHPV QHYHU VWDUW
IURPDQHPSW\DQGLGOHVWDWHWKHLQIRUPDWLRQFROOHFWHGLQDVLPXODWLRQPRGHOGXULQJWKH
ZDUPXS SHULRG LV QRW UHOLDEOH 7\SLFDOO\ IRU VWXG\LQJ WKHVH W\SHV RI V\VWHPV ZH ZLOO
ZDLWXQWLOWKHZDUPXSSHULRGLVWHUPLQDWHGDQGZHVWDUWREVHUYLQJWKHEHKDYLRXURIWKH
V\VWHPZKHQLWUHDFKHVDVWHDG\VWDWH$VWHDG\VWDWHLVEHOLHYHGWREHDJRRGUHIOHFWRURI
WKH UHDOOLIH V\VWHP DVVXPLQJ WKDW WKH YDULDWLRQ RI WKH SDUDPHWHUV WKDW DUH DIIHFWLQJ WKH
V\VWHPLVJRLQJWRUHPDLQWKHVDPH7KHUHDUHVHYHUDOPHWKRGVWRILJXUHRXWWKHGXUDWLRQ
RIWKHZDUPXSSHULRGDQGDYRLGFROOHFWLQJGDWDGXULQJWKDWSHULRGDOORIZKLFKVWDUWWKH
GDWDFROOHFWLRQIURPDQXQNQRZQDUELWUDU\LQLWLDOVWDWHDIWHUWKHZDUPXSSHULRGLVRYHU

 :KDWLVD5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ"
8VLQJ UHDO FXUUHQW GDWD DV DQ LQSXW IRU D VLPXODWLRQ PRGHO ZKLFK HQDEOHV QHDUIXWXUH
SUHGLFWLRQV RI WKH V\VWHP EHKDYLRXU LQ D WLPHO\ IDVKLRQ LV FDOOHG UHDOWLPH VLPXODWLRQ
%DVLFDOO\WKHFRUHLGHDLVWRXVHH[LVWLQJLQIRUPDWLRQDQGRQJRLQJHYHQWVDVDQLQSXWWR
WKHV\VWHPWRILJXUHRXWWKHFRQVHTXHQFHVRIFHUWDLQDFWLRQVLQWKHQHDUIXWXUHDQGLWHUD
WLYHO\IHHGLQJWKHSUHVHQWGDWDWRILQGRXWDERXWXSFRPLQJLPSDFWV$OWHUQDWLYHVFHQDULRV

&KDSWHU%DFNJURXQG:KDWLVD:DUP8S3HULRG" 
WDUJHWLQJGLIIHUHQWW\SHVRIUHVRXUFHDOORFDWLRQFRPELQDWLRQVFDQDOVREHUXQ6XEVHTXHQW
O\WKURXJKDQRSWLPL]DWLRQSURFHVVWKHEHVWDOWHUQDWLYHZLOOEHFKRVHQZLWKUHVSHFWWRWKH
UHVXOWVDQGGHFLVLRQVZLOOEHPDGH7KHHYHQWXDOLQWHQWLRQLVWRGHILQHDOWHUQDWLYHDFWLRQV
PDLQO\DERXW DGGLQJPRYLQJRUGHDOORFDWLQJUHVRXUFHV LIQHFHVVDU\WKDWFRXOGVXS
SRUW XV LQ PDNLQJ HIIHFWLYH VKRUWWHUP RSHUDWLRQDO GHFLVLRQV 5HDOWLPH VLPXODWLRQV FDQ
EHVKRZQDVF\FOHVLQZKLFKUHSHWLWLYHGDWDIHHGLQJGDWDSURFHVVLQJDQGRXWSXWDQDO\VLV
WDNHSODFH)LJXUHVKRZVWKHF\FOHRIDUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQIRUDV\VWHP

Initial/Current state Reports on near-future system


Historical Data performance
Process flow Reports on results of scenario runs

Real-Time
Input Data Output Data
Simulation

Feedback

)LJXUH 5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ&\FOH

 5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ6RIWZDUH$SSOLFDWLRQV
7KHUHDUHVHYHUDOVRIWZDUHDSSOLFDWLRQVWKDWH[KLELWLQWHUHVWLQJIHDWXUHVIRUWKHVXSSRUWRI
UHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQV7KUHHOHDGLQJFRPPHUFLDOVROXWLRQVDUHGLVFXVVHGKHUH

 $UHQD

$UHQDLVDFRPPHUFLDOVLPXODWLRQWRROVXSSRUWLQJGLVFUHWHHYHQWVLPXODWLRQ,WZDVLQL
WLDOO\GHYHORSHGE\6\VWHPV0RGHOOLQJZKLFKZDVDFTXLUHGE\5RFNZHOO$XWRPDWLRQLQ
,QUHFHQW \HDUVLWKDVEHFRPHYHU\SRSXODUIRULWVEURDGDSSOLFDELOLW\LQGLIIHUHQW
GRPDLQV LQFOXGLQJ PDQXIDFWXULQJ SDFNDJLQJ VXSSO\ FKDLQV KHDOWKFDUH DQG PLOLWDU\
DSSOLFDWLRQV$UHQDUHOLHVRQWKH6,0$1ODQJXDJHIRUPRGHOLQJ$UHQDLVQRWRQO\DVLP
XODWLRQVRIWZDUHSDFNDJHLWVXSSRUWVRSWLPL]DWLRQDVSHFWVDVZHOO,Q$UHQDPRGHOVDUH
GHILQHGDQGFRQVWUXFWHGXVLQJGLIIHUHQWEORFNV7KHQWKURXJKRSWLPL]DWLRQVWUDWHJLHVDUH


KWWSZZZDUHQDVLPXODWLRQFRP

&KDSWHU%DFNJURXQG5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ6RIWZDUH$SSOLFDWLRQV 


VHWDQGWKHHIIHFWLYHQHVVRIHDFKVWUDWHJ\LVREVHUYHGSULRUWRVHOHFWLQJRQHIRULPSOHPHQ
WDWLRQ
0RGXOHVDUHXVHGIRUEXLOGLQJPRGHOVLQ $UHQD7KH\DUHEDVLFDOO\VRPHSUHGH
ILQHGVKDSHVWKDWUHSUHVHQWVSHFLILFWDVNVRUVWDWHV0RGXOHVDUHEHLQJOLQHGXSDQGFRQ
QHFWHG WR HDFK RWKHU E\ FRQQHFWRUV ZKLFK LQGLFDWH WKH SRVVLEOH IORZV RI WKH HQWLWLHV
WKURXJKWKHPRGHO)LJXUHVKRZVWKH$UHQDLQWHUIDFHLQFOXGLQJDSDWLHQWFDUHSURFHVV
PRGHO QRWPHDQWWREHUHDGKHUHEXWZKRVHGHWDLOVFDQEHIRXQGLQ$SSHQGL[$ 
)RU LPSRUWLQJ DQG H[SRUWLQJ ILOH IRUPDWV $UHQD LV TXLWH IOH[LEOH ,W FDQ H[SRUW
ILOHVLQVHYHUDOIRUPDWVOLNH3'):RUG([FHODQG+70/$XWR&$'ILOHVDQG0LFURVRIW
9LVLRILOHVFDQDOVREHLPSRUWHGLQ$UHQDIRUD'YLVXDOLQWHUIDFHIRUVLPXODWLRQPRGHOV
,QSXW GDWD LQ $UHQD FDQ EH LQMHFWHG LQ WZR GLIIHUHQW ZD\V 7KHUH LV DQ H[WHUQDO
VRIWZDUH LQ $UHQD FDOOHG ,QSXW $QDO\VHU WKURXJK ZKLFK LPSRUWLQJ SXUH GDWD LH UDZ
GDWD DQGILWWLQJLWLQWRGLIIHUHQWGLVWULEXWLRQVLVIHDVLEOH$YDULHW\RIVWDWLVWLFDOGLVWULEX
WLRQV VXFK DV XQLIRUP H[SRQHQWLDO WULDQJXODU QRUPDO (UODQJ EHWD DQG RWKHUV H[LVW LQ
WKH,QSXW$QDO\VHU*LYHQWKHVWDWLVWLFDOLQIRUPDWLRQUHODWHGWRHDFKGLVWULEXWLRQWKHXVHU
GHFLGHVZKLFKRQHILWVWKHGDWDWKHEHVW7KHVHFRQGDSSURDFKLVWRGLUHFWO\IHHGWKHSXUH
GDWDLQWRWKHSURFHVVHV ZLWKLPSRUWDEOHILOHVZLWKRXWILWWLQJWKHPWRDVSHFLILFGLVWULEX
WLRQ %RWK RI WKH DSSURDFKHV KDYH WKHLU RZQ SURV DQG FRQV 8VLQJ DFWXDO GDWD ZLOO LP
SURYHWKHDFFXUDF\RIUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQVVLQFHLWZLOOEHWKHH[DFWGDWDWKDWZHZLOOEH
GHDOLQJZLWK+RZHYHUXVLQJVSHFLILFGLVWULEXWLRQVIRUVLPXODWLRQUXQVRIWKHPRGHOZLOO
EHOHVVWLPHFRQVXPLQJ WKDQZKHQHYHU\VLQJOH GDWDHOHPHQW QHHGVWR EHUHDGDQGSUR
FHVVHGIURPWKHLPSRUWHGILOHLQHDFKUHSOLFDWLRQ
$IWHUHDFKVLPXODWLRQUXQ$UHQDFUHDWHVDILOHWKDWFDQVSHFLILFDOO\EHXVHGLQWKH
3URFHVV$QDO\]HU 3$1 IRUREVHUYLQJKRZDVSHFLILFFKDQJHLQPRGHOYDOXHVLVJRLQJWR
DIIHFW WKH RXWFRPH UHVXOWV 7KH XVHU GHILQHV D UDQJH RI GLIIHUHQW ZKDWLI VFHQDULRV E\
FKDQJLQJGLIIHUHQWSDUDPHWHUV ZLWKRXWGLUHFWO\PDNLQJFKDQJHVLQWKHDFWXDOPRGHO DQG
UXQVHDFKVFHQDULRWRDQDO\]HSRVVLEOHRXWFRPHV

&KDSWHU%DFNJURXQG5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ6RIWZDUH$SSOLFDWLRQV 


)LJXUH $UHQD,QWHUIDFH

&KDSWHU%DFNJURXQG5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ6RIWZDUH$SSOLFDWLRQV 


$UHQDSURYLGHVWKHXVHUZLWKRSWLPL]DWLRQFDSDELOLWLHVDVZHOODVVLPXODWLRQ7KHUHLVDQ
H[WHUQDOSDFNDJH2SW4XHVWWKURXJKZKLFKDVHWRIFRQWUROVDQGUHVSRQVHVDUHFKRVHQIRU
RSWLPL]DWLRQ&RQWUROVDUHWKHSDUDPHWHUVIRUZKLFKWKHYDOXHVFDQFKDQJHZLWKLQDUDQJH
SUHYHQWLQJWKHRSWLPL]HUWRXVHYDOXHVWKDWDUHRXWRIWKHUDQJH DQGKHQFHUHGXFLQJWKH
VWDWHVSDFHWREHH[SORUHG &RQWUROOHUVDUHXVHGIRUGHILQLQJOLQHDUDQGRUQRQOLQHDUFRQ
VWUDLQWV 5HVSRQVHV DUH WKH GLIIHUHQW W\SHV RI RXWSXWV WKDW WKH XVHU LV LQWHUHVWHG LQ PLQL
PL]LQJ RU PD[LPL]LQJ GXULQJ D QXPEHU RI VLPXODWLRQ UXQV 7KH REMHFWLYH IXQFWLRQ LV
PDGHXSRIRQHRUVHYHUDOUHVSRQVHV2SW4XHVWXVHVPHWDKHXULVWLFPHWKRGVIRURSWLPL]D
WLRQV ,W DXWRPDWLFDOO\UXQV DQXPEHURISRVVLEOH VFHQDULRVWRVDWLVI\DOOWKHFRQVWUDLQWV
HYDOXDWHVWKHREMHFWLYHIXQFWLRQYDOXHZLWKHDFKLWHUDWLRQDQGFRPSDUHVLWZLWKWKHSUHYL
RXVUHVXOWVWRGHWHUPLQHDQHZVHWRIFRPELQDWLRQVIRUWKHQH[WLWHUDWLRQ,IDQ\FRQVWUDLQW
UHPDLQV XQVDWLVILHG WKHQ WKH SURYLGHG VROXWLRQV DUH VKRZQ DV LQIHDVLEOH $ WHUPLQDWLQJ
FRQGLWLRQ VKRXOG EH VHW LQ WKH RSWLPL]HU IRU DYRLGLQJ XQQHFHVVDU\ DQG WLPHFRQVXPLQJ
VLPXODWLRQUXQV)LQDOO\WKHDOWHUQDWLYHVDUHVKRZQWRWKHXVHUUDQNHGIURPWKHEHVWFDVH
VFHQDULRWRWKHZRUVWFDVHVFHQDULR
$UHQDDOVRVXSSRUWV9LVXDO%$6,&IRU$SSOLFDWLRQV 9%$ VFULSWLQJIRUIXOILOOLQJ
VSHFLILFQHHGVRUUHTXLUHPHQWV

 ,%0%XVLQHVV3URFHVV0DQDJHU

,%0%XVLQHVV3URFHVV0DQDJHU %30 IRUPHUO\NQRZQDV/RPEDUGLLVDEXVLQHVVSUR


FHVV PDQDJHPHQW VRIWZDUH WKDW VXSSRUWV UHDOWLPH VLPXODWLRQ RI SURFHVVHV IROORZLQJ D
GLVFUHWHHYHQW VLPXODWLRQ DSSURDFK 7KH EXVLQHVV SURFHVV FDQ EH GHILQHG ZLWK %301
DQGWKHKLVWRULFDOGDWDFDQEHVHWLQWKHPRGHOXVLQJDOLPLWHGQXPEHURIVWDWLVWLFDOGLVWUL
EXWLRQV RQO\WZR )RURSWLPL]DWLRQDQGPXOWLSOHVFHQDULRUXQVWKLVWRROVXSSRUWVSURILOH
PDQDJHPHQWZKLFKJLYHVWKHXVHUWKHRSSRUWXQLW\WRPDNHFKDQJHVLQWKHPRGHOZLWKRXW
FRQILJXULQJ WKH DFWXDO EDVH PRGHO DQG FKHFN IRU WKH SRVVLEOH RXWFRPHV ZKLOH DSSO\LQJ
VRPHFRQILJXUDWLRQV$QXPEHURISUHGHILQHGYLVXDOUHSRUWVDUHJHQHUDWHGDIWHUHDFKVLP
XODWLRQUXQWKDWFDQEHDQDO\]HG
$OWKRXJKKDYLQJVLPXODWLRQVHQDEOHGDWWKH%301OHYHOLVYHU\DWWUDFWLYH,%0
%30LVUDWKHUOLPLWHGFRPSDUHGWR$UHQDLQRXUFRQWH[W


KWWSZZZLEPFRPVRIWZDUHSURGXFWVXVHQEXVLQHVVSURFHVVPDQDJHUIDPLO\

&KDSWHU%DFNJURXQG5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ6RIWZDUH$SSOLFDWLRQV 


x 0RGHOYDOLGDWLRQDQGHUURUPDQDJHPHQWDUHUDWKHUSRRU
x 7KH SDFH RI VLPXODWLRQ UXQV LV QRW REVHUYDEOH QR FORFN  QRU DGMXVWDEOH WKH
XVHUFDQQRWVORZGRZQRUIDVWIRUZDUGUXQV 
x 5HSRUWJHQHUDWLRQLVIDLUO\EDVLFDQGRQO\RQHIRUPDW ([FHO LVDYDLODEOHIRU
H[SRUWLQJGDWDZKLFKOLPLWVXVZKHQIHHGLQJUHVXOWVWRDGHFLVLRQVXSSRUWV\V
WHP
x $QLPDWLRQLVOLPLWHGDQGLQVXIILFLHQWIRUREVHUYLQJZKHWKHUVWDWHVDUHLQLWLDO
L]HGSURSHUO\

 $Q\/RJLF

$Q\ORJLFLVGHYHORSHGE\;-7HFKQRORJLHV7KUHHFRUHVLPXODWLRQPHWKRGRORJLHV GLV
FUHWHHYHQW VLPXODWLRQV V\VWHP G\QDPLFV DQG DJHQWEDVHG PRGHOLQJ  DUH VXSSRUWHG
&RPSOLFDWHGPRGHOVFDQEHEXLOWLQWKLVWRROXVLQJDQ\RIWKHWKUHHPHWKRGRORJLHVRUD
FRPELQDWLRQRIWZRRUPRUHZKLFKHYHUVHHPVPRUHDSSURSULDWHWRWKHFRQWH[W7KHKLV
WRULFDO GDWD FDQ EH VHW XVLQJ D ZLGH YDULHW\ RI VWDWLVWLFDO GLVWULEXWLRQV 7KH VLPXODWLRQ
PRGHOFDQEHH[WHQGHGWKURXJK-DYDFRGLQJ7KHWRROVXSSRUWVYLVXDODQLPDWLRQDQGUHDO
WLPHVLPXODWLRQIHDWXUHV
$Q\/RJLF LV DOPRVW HTXDOO\ JRRG DV $UHQD DQG LV HYHQ EHWWHU IRU VRPH VSHFLILF
IHDWXUHV+RZHYHULWGRHVQRWKDYHDQDXWRPDWLFYHULILFDWLRQRIDFRQILGHQFHLQWHU
YDO IRU UHVXOWV VRPHWKLQJ XVHIXO IRU UHDOWLPH VLPXODWLRQV WKDW QHHG WR PLQLPL]H WKHLU
QXPEHURIUXQV $OVRDVWKHDFDGHPLFYHUVLRQRI$UHQDZDVPRUHHDVLO\DFFHVVLEOHIRU
HYDOXDWLRQ EHIRUHEX\LQJWKHWRRO DQGVLQFHWKHSDUWQHUKRVSLWDODOVRKDGSODQVIRUHYDO
XDWLQJWKLVWRROZHGHFLGHGWRLQYHVWLJDWH$UHQDLQWKHFDVHVWXG\RIWKLVWKHVLV

 6LPXODWLRQ2XWSXW3UHFLVLRQDQG&RQILGHQFH
6WRFKDVWLFPRGHOVGHSHQGRQUDQGRPQXPEHUJHQHUDWLRQ(YHQWKRXJKWKHJHQHUDWLRQRI
QXPEHUV PLJKW IROORZ D VSHFLILF VWDWLVWLFDO GLVWULEXWLRQ WKHVH QXPEHUV DUH VWLOO UDQGRP
DQGDVDUXOHUDQGRPQXPEHUVLQZLOOFDXVHUDQGRPQXPEHUVRXW7KHUHIRUHWKHVWDWLVWL
FDOEHKDYLRXURIWKHRXWSXWQXPEHUVVKRXOGEHREVHUYHGDQGLQWHUSUHWHGSURSHUO\LQRUGHU



KWWSZZZDQ\ORJLFFRP

&KDSWHU%DFNJURXQG6LPXODWLRQ2XWSXW3UHFLVLRQDQG&RQILGHQFH 


WRKDYHDFRUUHFWXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKHSUHGLFWHGUHVXOWV,QWKLVVHFWLRQVHYHUDOVWDWLVWLFDO
FRQFHSWV DQG WKHRULHV DUH GLVFXVVHG DV WKH\ KDYH EHHQ WDNHQ LQWR FRQVLGHUDWLRQ IRU RXU
VLPXODWLRQRXWSXWFDOFXODWLRQV

 6DPSOLQJ3URFHVV

6DPSOLQJLV WKHHVWLPDWLRQ RIWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFV RIDODUJHFRPPXQLW\ E\ VHOHFWLQJDQG


REVHUYLQJWKHEHKDYLRXURIDVXEVHWRIWKDWFRPPXQLW\7KHODUJHUWKHVDPSOLQJSRSXOD
WLRQ LV WKH PRUH SUHFLVH WKH HVWLPDWLRQV ZRXOG EH EXW WKH PRUH FRVWO\ WKH H[SHULPHQW
ZRXOGEHFRPH$IWHUWKHSURFHVVRIVDPSOLQJLVFRPSOHWHGWKHUHVXOWVDUHDQDO\]HGDQG
WKH HVWLPDWHG SRLQWV JHQHUDWHG 7KH VDPSOH PHDQ LV FDOFXODWHG WKURXJK WKH IROORZLQJ
IRUPXOD


WK
ZKHUH;LLVWKHYDOXHREVHUYHGLQWKHL WULDODQGQWKHQXPEHURIH[SHULPHQWV

 &HQWUDO/LPLW7KHRUHP

7KH FHQWUDO OLPLW WKHRUHP LV RQH RI WKH IXQGDPHQWDO WKHRULHV LV VWDWLVWLFV $FFRUGLQJ WR
WKLVWKHRUHPLIZHDYHUDJHDSDUWLFXODUPHDVXUDEOHTXDQWLW\WKURXJKDVDPSOLQJSURFHVV
IRUDQXPEHURIWLPHVWKHQWKHEHKDYLRXURIWKHDYHUDJHVZHFDOFXODWHLVJRLQJWR WHQG
WRZDUGDQRUPDOGLVWULEXWLRQDVWKHVDPSOHVL]HDQGVDPSOLQJWULDOVLQFUHDVH7KLVWKHRU\
DSSOLHVWRDOOWKHUDQGRPPHDQVRUVXPVRYHULQGHSHQGHQWDQGLGHQWLFDOO\GLVWULEXWHGYDU
LDEOHV UHJDUGOHVV RI WKHLU RULJLQDO GLVWULEXWLRQ 7KHUHIRUH LQ WKH FDOFXODWLRQ RI WKH HVWL
PDWHGSRLQWDQGWKHFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOWKHWGLVWULEXWLRQLVXVHG DVZHW\SLFDOO\XVHIHZ
VLPXODWLRQUXQV DQGDSSHDUVDVDFRQVWDQWQXPEHUWKDWUHOLHVRQWKHQXPEHURIVDPSOLQJ
WULDOVDQGWKHFRQILGHQFHOHYHO7KHYDOXHVRIWKHWGLVWULEXWLRQZLOOEHFORVHWRWKHYDOXHV
RIDQRUPDOGLVWULEXWLRQIURPWULDOVRQZDUGV,IWKHVDPSOLQJSURFHVVLVWDNLQJOHVVWKDQ
WULDOVWKHQWKHWGLVWULEXWLRQVKRXOGEHXVHGIRUFDOFXODWLQJWKHUHODWHGVWDWLVWLFV



KWWSHQZLNLSHGLDRUJZLNL6DPSOHBPHDQBDQGBVDPSOHBFRYDULDQFH

KWWSHQZLNLSHGLDRUJZLNL&HQWUDOBOLPLWBWKHRUHP

&KDSWHU%DFNJURXQG6LPXODWLRQ2XWSXW3UHFLVLRQDQG&RQILGHQFH 


 6DPSOLQJ(UURU0HDVXUHPHQWV

)RU HYDOXDWLQJ WKH SUHFLVLRQ RI WKH VDPSOLQJ GDWD JHQHUDWHG ZLWKLQ D VDPSOLQJ SURFHVV
WKHUHDUHVHYHUDOVWDWLVWLFDOVDPSOLQJHUURUPHDVXUHPHQWVWKDWDUHRIWHQXVHG

6WDQGDUG'HYLDWLRQ
7KH VWDQGDUG GHYLDWLRQ FRUUHVSRQGV WR WKH YDULDWLRQ WKDW H[LVWV DURXQG WKH DYHUDJH ,Q
RWKHUZRUGVWKLVLQGLFDWHVKRZPXFKWKHFDOFXODWHGGDWDLVVSUHDG7KHORZHUWKHVWDQG
DUGGHYLDWLRQWKHPRUHSUHFLVHWKHUHVXOWVZRXOGEHFRQVLGHULQJWKDWWKHGDWDIURPZKLFK
WKHPHDQLVFDOFXODWHGLVFORVHUWRWKHDFWXDOSRSXODWLRQPHDQ7KHIRUPXODIRUFDOFXODW
LQJWKHVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQLV


WK
ZKHUH;LLVWKHYDOXHREVHUYHGLQWKHL WULDOQLVWKHQXPEHURIH[SHULPHQWVDQG LVWKH
VDPSOHPHDQ

&RQILGHQFH,QWHUYDO
&RQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVVKRZERWKWKHSUHFLVLRQDVZHOODVWKHORFDWLRQRIPHDVXUHGSDUDPH
WHUVDQGFRQVLVWRIDQXSSHUERXQGDQGDORZHUERXQG7KLVLQWHUYDOLVDUDQJHWKURXJK
ZKLFKWKHHVWLPDWLRQSRLQWIDOOVE\WKHSUREDELOLW\HTXDOWRWKHFRQILGHQFHOHYHOLQIXUWKHU
UHSHDWHG WULDOV 7KH FRPPRQ FRQILGHQFH OHYHOV FKRVHQ IRU VWDWLVWLFDO DQDO\VLV DUH 
DQG,IIRULQVWDQFHWKHFRQILGHQFHOHYHOLVFKRVHQDVWKLVPHDQVWKDWLQ
RIWKHGLIIHUHQWH[SHULPHQWDWLRQVIRUVDPSOLQJWKHDFWXDOSDUDPHWHURILQWHUHVWZLOO
H[LVWZLWKLQWKDWFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOUHSRUWHG7KHIRUPXODIRUFDOFXODWLQJWKHFRQILGHQFH
LQWHUYDOIRUXSSHUDQGORZHUERXQGVLV


ZKHUH

x LVWKHVDPSOHPHDQ
x LVWKHVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQRIWKHVDPSOH


KWWSHQZLNLSHGLDRUJZLNL6WDQGDUGBGHYLDWLRQ

KWWSZZZDOOLDQWKDZNRUJYLFWLRQDU\VKRZGHISKS"ZRUG 

&KDSWHU%DFNJURXQG6LPXODWLRQ2XWSXW3UHFLVLRQDQG&RQILGHQFH 


x LVWKHVL]HRIWKHVDPSOH
x LVDYDOXHGHULYHGIURPWKHWWDEOHWKDWUHOLHVRQWKHVDPSOHVL]HDVZHOO
DVWKHSDUDPHWHURIVLJQLILFDQFH D ,IWKHFRQILGHQFHOHYHOLVWKHQWKH
YDOXHRIDZRXOGEHHTXDOWR 


&RQILGHQFH LQWHUYDOV FDQ EH FDOFXODWHG IRU D VPDOO QXPEHU RI VDPSOLQJ WULDOV HYHQ IRU
Q  +RZHYHUWKHVPDOOHUWKHQXPEHURIWKHVDPSOLQJWULDOVWKHZLGHUDQGWKHOHVVSUH
FLVHWKHFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOZLOOEH
7KHUHIRUHRQO\HQVXULQJWKDWWKHFDOFXODWHGGDWDLVZLWKLQWKHFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDO
UDQJHZLWKDFHUWDLQSUREDELOLW\LVQRWVXIILFLHQWIRUFRQFOXGLQJWKDWWKHSUHFLVLRQRIWKH
ILQDOUHVXOWVLVJXDUDQWHHG%RWKWKHLQWHUYDODQGWKHYDULDWLRQIURPWKHPHDQDUHJRLQJWR
VSHFLI\WKHSUHFLVLRQRIWKHVDPSOLQJRXWSXWGDWD

0DUJLQRI(UURU
7KHPDUJLQRIHUURU 02( RUKDOIZLGWKLVDVWDWLVWLFDOH[SUHVVLRQWKDWDFWVDVDQLQGLFD
WRURIVDPSOLQJHUURU7KLVYDOXHLVNQRZQDVWKHUDGLXVRIWKHFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDO,QD
VDPSOLQJSURFHVVDVGLVFXVVHGSUHYLRXVO\DFHUWDLQQXPEHURI LQGLYLGXDOVIURPDODUJH
FRPPXQLW\DUHFKRVHQIRUWKHLUEHKDYLRXUWREHREVHUYHGDQGWKHQWKHUHVXOWVDUHJHQHUDO
L]HGWRDOOWKHSRSXODWLRQZLWKDFHUWDLQFRQILGHQFHDQGSUHFLVLRQ:KHQDVDPSOLQJSUR
FHVVLVRFFXUULQJWKHUHDUHVRPHLQGLYLGXDOVOHIWWKDWUHPDLQXQREVHUYHG7KHORZHUWKHLU
QXPEHUWKHWLJKWHUWKHFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOZLOOEHFRPHDVVXPLQJWKDWWKHVDPSOLQJWULDOV
UHPDLQWKHVDPH6LQFHLQDVDPSOLQJSURFHVVZHDUHXVXDOO\XQDEOHWRDYRLGDQRQQXOO
PDUJLQRIHUURUWKHREMHFWLYHLVWRPLQLPL]HWKLVHUURULQRUGHUWRJHWDGHVLUDEOHSUHFLVLRQ
LQWKHRXWSXWGDWD7KHIRUPXODFDOFXODWLQJWKHPDUJLQRIHUURULV


ZKHUH
x LVWKHVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQRIWKHVDPSOH
x LVWKHVL]HRIWKHVDPSOH



KWWSZZZDOOLDQWKDZNRUJYLFWLRQDU\VKRZGHISKS"ZRUG 

&KDSWHU%DFNJURXQG6LPXODWLRQ2XWSXW3UHFLVLRQDQG&RQILGHQFH 


x LVDYDOXHGHULYHGIURPWWDEOHWKDWUHOLHVRQWKHVDPSOHVL]HDVZHOODV
WKHSDUDPHWHURIVLJQLILFDQFH 

7KH02(LVVRPHWLPHVFDOFXODWHGDVDQDEVROXWHQXPEHUPRVWO\LIWKHVDPSOLQJSURFHVV
LV GRQH RQO\ RQH WLPH +RZHYHU VRPHWLPHV WKLV YDOXH LV EHLQJ GHVFULEHG DV D UHODWLYH
TXDQWLW\LQWKHFRQWH[WRIWKHVDPSOHPHDQ6XFKUHODWLYH02(LV


:KHUH LVWKHVDPSOHPHDQDQG02(LVWKHPDUJLQRIHUURU

&RHIILFLHQWRI9DULDWLRQ
7KHFRHIILFLHQWRIYDULDWLRQLVWKHUDWLRRIWKHVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQRIDVDPSOLQJRXWSXWDQG
WKHPHDQRIWKDWVDPHVDPSOLQJRXWSXW7KLVYDOXHLVPRVWO\EHLQJSUHVHQWHGDVDSHU
FHQWDJHZKLFK LQ JHQHUDO ZRXOG GHVFULEHWKHYDULDELOLW\RIWKHREVHUYHGVDPSOLQJLQGL
YLGXDOVLQUHODWLRQWRWKHPHDQRIWKHVDPSOH7KHIRUPXODLV


:KHUH LVWKHVDPSOHPHDQDQGLVWKHVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQRIWKHVDPSOH

 6WRFKDVWLF6LPXODWLRQD6DPSOLQJ3URFHVV

6WRFKDVWLFVLPXODWLRQLQYROYHVDSURFHVVRIVDPSOLQJZLWKLQHYHU\VHWXS7KURXJKWKHSH
ULRGRIWKHUXQOHQJWKLQHDFKUHSOLFDWLRQWKHVDPSOHVDUHFROOHFWHG6LPXODWLRQUHSOLFD
WLRQLVWKHVDPSOLQJWULDOVWKDWRFFXULQDVDPSOLQJSURFHVV)RUHDFKWULDOWKHDYHUDJHZLOO
EHNHSWDQGWKHDYHUDJHRIDOORIWKHVDPSOHWULDOVLVFDOFXODWHGDWWKHHQGRIWKHVLPXOD
WLRQUHSOLFDWLRQV7KHKLJKHUWKHQXPEHURIUHSOLFDWLRQVWKHPRUHSUHFLVHWKHUHVXOWVZLOO
EH+RZHYHUWKLVSUHFLVLRQFRPHVDWWKHFRVWRIVSHQGLQJPRUHWLPHWRUXQWKHVLPXODWLRQ
PRGHO



KWWSHQZLNLSHGLDRUJZLNL&RHIILFLHQWBRIBYDULDWLRQ

&KDSWHU%DFNJURXQG6LPXODWLRQ2XWSXW3UHFLVLRQDQG&RQILGHQFH 


 6XPPDU\
,QWKLVFKDSWHUZHKDYHH[SODLQHGGLIIHUHQWVLPXODWLRQFRQFHSWVWKDWZLOOEHXVHGLQWKLV
UHVHDUFK $OVR D EULHI LQWURGXFWLRQ WR VRPH OHDGLQJ DSSOLFDWLRQV WKDW VXSSRUW UHDOWLPH
VLPXODWLRQZDVJLYHQ,QRXUVWXG\EHFDXVHRIWKHUDQGRPQDWXUHRIWKHHYHQWVWKDWRFFXU
LQ KRVSLWDOV ZH KDYH GHFLGHG WR XVH D VWRFKDVWLF PRGHO IRU VLPXODWLRQ SXUSRVHV $OVR
VLQFHWKHEHKDYLRXURIWKHKRVSLWDORYHUWLPHLVRIFRQFHUQWKHVLPXODWLRQPRGHOZLOOEH
G\QDPLF$VZHDUHREVHUYLQJWKHFDUHSURFHVVHVLQDKRVSLWDODVDTXHXLQJV\VWHPZH
FKRVHGLVFUHWHHYHQWVLPXODWLRQIRUDQDO\VLV(YHQWXDOO\ZHFKRVH$UHQDDVDWRROIRUFUH
DWLQJRXUUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQPRGHO
6WRFKDVWLFPRGHOVDUHGHHSO\LQWHJUDWHGZLWKVWDWLVWLFDOQRWLRQV7KHUHDVRQLVEH
FDXVHWKHVHPRGHOVVKRXOGEHDEOHWRSUHGLFWDQGHYDOXDWHWKHIXWXUHVWDWHRIWKHV\VWHP
WKURXJKPHDVXUDEOHFULWHULD7KHGDWDJHQHUDWHGWKURXJKVLPXODWLRQUXQVLVFROOHFWHGLQD
VDPSOLQJSURFHVV 7KLV GDWD VKRXOGEHDFFXUDWHDQGSUHFLVHHQRXJKWR EHUHOLHGRQ:H
KDYHLQWURGXFHGWKHVWDWLVWLFDOWHUPVDQGWKHRULHVWKDWZHZLOOQHHGODWHUIRUPDNLQJGHFL
VLRQVRQWKHSUHFLVLRQRIWKHGDWDWKDWWKHVLPXODWLRQPRGHOJHQHUDWHV
7KHQH[WFKDSWHUZLOOGLVFXVVWKHUHOHYDQWOLWHUDWXUHLQWKLVDUHD:HZLOOH[SODLQ
KRZ VLPXODWLRQ DQGRU UHDOWLPH VLPXODWLRQ DSSOLFDWLRQV KDYH EHHQ XVHG VR IDU DV WHFK
QLTXHVIRUSUREOHPVROYLQJLQKHDOWKFDUH

&KDSWHU%DFNJURXQG6XPPDU\ 


&KDSWHU /LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ

,QRUGHUWRXQGHUVWDQGH[LVWLQJZRUNRQVLPXODWLRQVRISDWLHQWFDUHSURFHVVHVDOLWHUDWXUH
UHYLHZKDVEHHQFRQGXFWHG,QWKLVFKDSWHUFRQIHUHQFHSDSHUVDQGMRXUQDOVUHODWHGWRWKLV
VXEMHFWKDYHEHHQIRXQGWKURXJKDV\VWHPDWLFDSSURDFK LQVSLUHGIURP.LWFKHQKDPVDS
SURDFK IRU V\VWHPDWLF OLWHUDWXUH UHYLHZV>@  DQG ZHUH DQDO\]HG WR H[WUDFW WKH UHTXLUHG
GDWDDQGLGHQWLI\VWUHQJWKVOLPLWDWLRQVDQGUHPDLQLQJFKDOOHQJHV

 6HOHFWLRQ0HWKRGRORJ\
)RU WKH FUHGLELOLW\ RI WKH SDSHUV XVHG LQ WKH UHYLHZ WKUHH WUXVWHG VHDUFK HQJLQHV ZHUH
XVHG
 6SULQJHU/LQN
 ,(((;SORUH
 $&0'LJLWDO/LEUDU\ '/ 

)RUDOOWKUHHVHDUFKHQJLQHVWKH$GYDQFHG6HDUFKVHFWLRQZDVXVHGWRFODULI\DQGVSHFLI\
WKHH[DFWFRPELQDWLRQVRINH\ZRUGVWKDWZHUHRIFRQFHUQ
6LQFHWKHFRQFHSWRIUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQKDVDEURDGVFRSHLQPDQ\GRPDLQVWKH
FRQFHQWUDWLRQ LV RQ WKH UHODWHG ZRUN ZKHUH KHDOWKFDUH LV WKH DFWXDO FRQWH[W )XUWKHU
PRUH LQ WKH KHDOWKFDUH GRPDLQ WKHUH LV D EURDG UDQJH RI UHDOWLPH VLPXODWLRQ DSSOLFD
WLRQV IRU VHYHUDO PHGLFDO REMHFWLYHV )RU LQVWDQFH LQ WKH SURFHVV RI WUDFNLQJ SDWLHQW
KHDOWK VWDWXVHV VRPH FOLQLFDO GHYLFHV DUH XVHG WKDW VLPXODWH WKHVH VWDWXVHV LQ UHDO WLPH
0RUHRYHUUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQVDUHDOVRDSSOLHGIRUWUDLQLQJSXUSRVH
7KH IRFXV RI WKLV ZRUN LV RQ WKH UHDOWLPH VLPXODWLRQ RI WKH SURFHVV IORZV LQ
YROYHGLQKHDOWKFDUHZKLFKZRXOGOHDGWRHIIHFWLYHGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ&RQVHTXHQWO\WKH



KWWSOLQNVSULQJHUFRP

KWWSLHHH[SORUHLHHHRUJ;SORUH

KWWSGODFPRUJGOFIP

&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ6HOHFWLRQ0HWKRGRORJ\ 


IROORZLQJ NH\ZRUGVZHUHFKRVHQDIWHUVHYHUDO WULDOV SUHYLRXVDWWHPSWV OHGWR WRR PDQ\


LUUHOHYDQWSDSHUVRUWRWRRIHZSDSHUV 
x ,Q 6SULQJHU/LQN UHDO WLPH VLPXODWLRQ $1' PRGHOLQJ $1' GHFLVLRQ
$1'ZDLWWLPH$1'KHDOWKFDUH
x ,Q,(((;SORUHUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQ$1'EXVLQHVVSURFHVV$1'ZDLW
WLPH$1'KHDOWKFDUH$1'3DWLHQWZRUNIORZ
x ,Q $&0V '/ UHDO WLPH VLPXODWLRQ $1' UHVRXUFH 25 VWDII  $1'
KHDOWKFDUH$1'PRGHO$1'SURFHVV$1'SDWLHQWIORZ

1RWH WKDW VRPH VHDUFK HQJLQHV OLNH 6SULQJHU/LQN WROHUDWH YDULDWLRQV LQ WKH UHVXOWV HJ
ZDLWWLPHVDQGZDLWLQJWLPHVUHDOWLPHDQGUHDOWLPHPRGHOLQJDQGPRGHOLQJKHDOWKFDUH
DQGKHDOWKFDUHHWF ZKLOHRWKHUUHTXLUHGYDULDWLRQVDQGV\QRQ\PVWREHFKHFNHGLQH[
WUDTXHULHV

 )LOWHULQJ0HWKRGRORJ\
$IWHUFROOHFWLQJWKHSRRORIFDQGLGDWHSDSHUVWZRILOWHULQJSURFHVVHVZHUHDSSOLHGLQRU
GHUWREHPRUHVSHFLILFRQVHOHFWLQJWKHPRVWUHOHYDQWSDSHUV7KHILUVWDSSURDFKWDNHQIRU
ILOWHULQJ WKH UHVXOWV ZDV WR XVH WKH H[LVWLQJ ILOWHULQJ RSWLRQV LQ 6SULQJHU/LQN DQG ,(((
;SORUH ,Q $&0 '/ WKLV FDSDELOLW\ GRHV QRW H[LVW 7KH ILOWHULQJ FULWHULD ZHUH VHW WR
FKRRVHSDSHUVRQO\LIWKH\ZHUHIURPMRXUQDOVRUFRQIHUHQFHSDSHUVWKDWZHUHLQ(QJOLVK
7KHSDSHUVGXSOLFDWHGLQVHDUFKUHVXOWVRIWZRRUPRUHVHDUFKHQJLQHVZHUHNHSWRQO\LQ
WKHUHVXOWVRIWKHILUVWHQJLQHXVHG$OVRWKHUHVXOWVRUWLQJZDVVHWWREHDFFRUGLQJWRUHOH
YDQFHRIWKHSDSHUWRWKHVHDUFKLQJNH\ZRUGV$IWHUWKHILUVWILOWHULQJWKHVHFRQGILOWHULQJ
ZDVGRQHPDQXDOO\7KHWLWOHVRIWKHDUWLFOHVZHUHLQVSHFWHGDQGWKHDEVWUDFWDQGFRQFOX
VLRQRIWKHVHOHFWHGRQHVZHUHVNLPPHGWKURXJK)RUVRPHSDSHUVWKHFRQWHQWRIWKHSD
SHUDOVRZDVVNLPPHGIRUPDNLQJGHFLVLRQVRQWKHILQDOVHOHFWLRQRIWKHSDSHUV
7KHFRQWHQWRIWKHDEVWUDFWDQGRIWKHFRQFOXVLRQVKRXOGKDYHEHHQDVIROORZVIRU
DSDSHUWREHVHOHFWHG
x ,WVKRXOGEHVWDWLQJDQLVVXHUHODWHGWRSDWLHQWFDUHSURFHVVHVLQYROYHGLQDQ\
KHDOWKFDUHLQVWLWXWLRQWKDWRIIHUVFOLQLFDOVXSSRUW

&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ)LOWHULQJ0HWKRGRORJ\ 


x 7KHVWDWHGLVVXHVKRXOGIL[HGXVLQJVLPXODWLRQVRUUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQV
x ,WVKRXOGQRWEHUHODWHGWRVLPXODWLRQVRUUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQIRUGLUHFWPHGL
FDO SXUSRVHVVXFKDV IRU PHGLFDO GHYLFHVWKDWVLPXODWHWKH KHDOWKFRQGLWLRQV
RIWKHSDWLHQWVRUWKHRQHVXVHGIRUWUDLQLQJSXUSRVH

)LQDOO\DQ\RWKHUDUWLFOHWKDWZDVIRXQG WKURXJKRWKHUPHDQV WREHUHODWHGWRUHDOWLPH
VLPXODWLRQ ZLWKRXW QHFHVVDULO\ EHLQJ DSSOLHG LQ KHDOWKFDUH GRPDLQ ZDV FDWHJRUL]HG DV
RWKHU7DEOHVKRZVWKHILQDOQXPEHUVRIVHOHFWHGSDSHUV

7DEOH 3DSHU6HOHFWLRQ
 6SULQJHU/LQN ,(((;SORUH $&0'/ 2WKHU 7RWDO
RISDSHUVIRXQG     
RISDSHUVDIWHUILUVW     
ILOWHULQJ
RISDSHUVILQDOO\VHOHFWHG     

 2YHUYLHZ
7DEOHVXPPDUL]HVWKHFRQWHQWRIWKHSDSHUVDFFRUGLQJWRGLIIHUHQWILHOGV6RPHDW\SLFDO
YDOXHVDUHKLJKOLJKWHGDORQJWKHZD\ JUHHQIRUJRRG\HOORZIRUSDUWLDOUHGIRUEDG 
x 6RXUFHVSHFLILHVWKHVHDUFKHQJLQHXVHGWRILQGWKHDUWLFOH
x &RXQWU\ LQGLFDWHVWKHFRXQWU\ LQ ZKLFKWKHKRVSLWDO XQGHUREVHUYDWLRQLV OR
FDWHG
x 6FRSHVKRZVWKHVFRSHRIWKHVWXG\LQFOXGLQJKHDOWKFDUHLQJHQHUDODKRVSL
WDORUDVSHFLILFXQLWVXFKDV('DQ2SHUDWLRQ5RRP 25 RUWKH,QWHQVLYH
&DUH8QLW ,&8 
x 6LPXODWLRQW\SHLQGLFDWHVWKHW\SHRIWKHVLPXODWLRQ HJGLVFUHWHHYHQWVLPX
ODWLRQRUEDVHGRQTXHXLQJQHWZRUNVWKHRU\ 
x 5HDOWLPHLPSOHPHQWDWLRQVKRZVZKHWKHURUQRW WKHDUWLFOHLQGLFDWHVWKDWDQ
DFWXDOUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQKDVEHHQLPSOHPHQWHG
x (IIHFWLYHLQGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ '0 LQGLFDWHVZKHWKHUWKHDUWLFOHDJUHHVRQWKH
HIIHFWLYHQHVVRIVLPXODWLRQVRUUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQVLQGHFLVLRQPDNLQJSUR
FHVVHV

&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ2YHUYLHZ 


x :DLWWLPHLVVXHLQGLFDWHVZKHWKHUWKHDUWLFOHLVVSHFLI\LQJDZDLWWLPHLVVXH
ZLWKLQWKHVFRSHRIWKHUHVHDUFK
x $FWXDOKRVSLWDOIODJVZKHWKHUWKHUHZDVDUHDODFWXDOKRVSLWDOSURFHVVXVHGLQ
WKHUHVHDUFK
x 6LPXODWLRQWRROVKRZVWKHQDPHRIWKHWRROXVHGIRUGRLQJVLPXODWLRQPRGHO
LQJDQGDQDO\VLV
x 'DWDFROOHFWLRQIRXUW\SHVRILQSXWGDWDFROOHFWLRQLQPRGHOLQJDUHLQGLFDWHG
 LVFKRVHQZKHQWKHLQSXWGDWDLVWRWDOO\K\SRWKHWLFDO
 LVFKRVHQZKHQWKHLQSXWGDWDKDVEHHQFROOHFWHGHLWKHUPDQXDOO\RU
E\GRLQJREVHUYDWLRQVDQGLQWHUYLHZV
 LV FKRVHQ ZKHQ WKH LQSXW GDWD ZDV FROOHFWHG ERWK PDQXDOO\
WKURXJKREVHUYDWLRQRULQWHUYLHZVHWF DQGDOVRIURPDQHOHFWURQLF
GDWDEDVH
 LVFKRVHQZKHQWKHLQSXWGDWDFROOHFWLRQZDVIURPHOHFWURQLFGDWD
EDVHV
1RQH LVFKRVHQZKHQWKHUHVHDUFKGLGQRWQHHGWRKDYHDQ\GDWDFROOHF
WLRQ
1$ LVFKRVHQLIWKHPHWKRGRIGDWDFROOHFWLRQZDVQRWPHQWLRQHG
1%,QWKLVWDEOHWKHDUWLFOHVWKDWPHQWLRQHGWKH\XVHGKLVWRULFDOGDWDZHUH
DOVRFDWHJRUL]HGDV
x 0RGHO 9  9 LOOXVWUDWHV LI WKH VLPXODWLRQ PRGHO KDV EHHQ YDOLGDWHG DQGRU
YHULILHGRUQRW2QHRIYDOXHVDUHSRVVLEOH
<HV HLWKHUYHULILHGRUYDOLGDWHG
1R QRWYHULILHGQHLWKHUYDOLGDWHG
3DUWLDOO\ WKHDUWLFOHLQGLFDWHVWKDWWKHPRGHOLVYDOLGDWHGKRZHYHULWKDV
VRPHPDMRULQDFFXUDFLHVWKDWDIIHFWWKHRXWFRPHUHVXOWV


 

&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ2YHUYLHZ 


7DEOH 6XPPDU\RI5HODWHG:RUN
Real-time
Type of Effec- Patient Actual Simula-
Arti- imple- Data Model
Source Country Scope simu- tive wait time hospi- tion
cle menta- collection V&V
lation in DM issue tal tool
tion
Partial-
[4] IEEE Germany OR N/A No Yes Yes Yes Arena 1
ly
[5] IEEE Portugal OR DES No No Yes Yes Arena 1 No
[1] IEEE - ER DES No Yes Yes No Arena None N/A
[17] IEEE UK ED DES No No Yes Yes DGHPSim 3 N/A
[46] IEEE Japan OD DES No Yes Yes Yes Arena 2 Yes
Partial-
[28] IEEE US ED N/A No No Yes Yes Arena 1
ly
[24] IEEE US ED DES No Yes Yes Yes Arena 1 Yes
[16] IEEE US ED DES No Yes Yes Yes Arena 3 Yes
[27] IEEE UK Theatre DES No Yes Yes Yes Arena 2 Yes
ED and
[15] IEEE Sweden N/A No Yes Yes Yes N/A 2 N/A
RD
[42] IEEE UK OD DES No Yes Yes Yes Arena 0 N/A
[42] IEEE Taiwan ED DES No No Yes Yes simul8 N/A Yes
Surgery
[36] IEEE Brazil N/A No Yes No Yes ProModel 3 Yes
Room
Agent
[37] IEEE - ED No Yes Yes No Jsim None No
based
Hong
[47] IEEE AED DES No Yes Yes Yes Arena 3 Yes
Kong
[12] IEEE Iran ED N/A No Yes Yes Yes Arena 1 Yes
Hospi-
[14] IEEE Belgium DES No Yes Yes Yes Arena 1 N/A
tal
[45] IEEE Japan OD DES No Yes Yes Yes Arena 2 Yes
[29] IEEE Israel ED N/A Yes Yes Yes Yes Arena 3 Yes
Spring Process-
[26] USA ICU DES No Yes Yes Yes 3 Yes
erLink Model
Spring Hospi-
[44] Ireland N/A No Yes Yes Yes simul8 3 N/A
erLink tal
Spring Hospi-
[23] UK N/A No Yes Yes Yes Arena 3 N/A
erLink tal
Spring
[38] Canada OD DES No Yes Yes Yes Arena 1 Yes
erLink
Spring
[34] Sweden OR DES No Yes Yes Yes N/A 1 Yes
erLink
Spring Hospi-
[11] USA N/A No Yes Yes Yes Arena 3 Yes
erLink tal
Spring Hospi-
[13] Australia N/A No Yes Yes Yes Extend 0 N/A
erLink tal
Phar-
[41] ACM USA N/A No Yes No No AutoMod 1 No
macy
[25] ACM N/A ED-IU DES No Yes Yes Yes N/A N/A N/A
Micro
Hospi-
[18] ACM UK DES No No Yes Yes Saint 3 Yes
tal
sharp
[20] ACM Norway ED DES No Yes Yes Yes Flexsim 1 Yes
Health-
[3] ACM N/A N/A No Yes Yes No N/A None N/A
care
[35] ACM USA ED DES No No Yes No N/A None N/A
Health- All
[48] ACM N/A No No No No No None No
care types
Hospi-
[40] ACM USA N/A No Yes No Yes Arena 1 Yes
tal
[10] ACM N/A ER DES No Yes Yes No Arena None N/A

&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ2YHUYLHZ 


$VFDQEHVHHQIURP7DEOHUHVHDUFKLQWKLVGRPDLQLVFRQGXFWHGLQPDQ\KRVSLWDOORFD
WLRQV DURXQG WKH ZRUOG /RRNLQJ DW WKH SXEOLFDWLRQ GDWHV VLPXODWLRQ LQ KHDOWKFDUH KDV
EHHQDWWUDFWLQJDWWHQWLRQPRVWO\GXULQJUHFHQW\HDUV1HDUO\WZRWKLUGVRIWKHVWXGLHVDUH
XVLQJGLVFUHWHHYHQWVLPXODWLRQVIRUWKHLURZQVLPXODWLRQVFRSHVVLQFHWKH\EHOLHYHGWKLV
DSSURDFK UHIOHFWV WKH UHDO VLWXDWLRQ LQ KHDOWKFDUH GRPDLQ EHWWHU  RI WKH DUWLFOHV EH
OLHYHGWKDWVLPXODWLRQVFDQKDYHHIIHFWLYHLPSDFWVRQGHFLVLRQPDNLQJRIWKHDUWL
FOHVZHUHFRQFHUQHGZLWKORQJZDLWLQJWLPHVIRUSDWLHQWVRIWKHDUWLFOHVXVHG$UHQD
DVWKHLUVLPXODWLRQWRROZKHUHDVXVHG6LPXO WKHVHFRQGPRVWSRSXODUWRROZHOO
EHKLQG $UHQD  $PRQJ DOO RI WKH VLPXODWLRQ VWXGLHV WKDW XVHG REVHUYDWLRQV LQWHUYLHZV
DQG PDQXDO PHWKRGV IRU FROOHFWLQJ GDWD  ZHUH QRW DEOH WR YHULI\ RU YDOLGDWH WKHLU
PRGHODFFXUDWHO\$OORIWKHVLPXODWLRQPRGHOVWKDWXVHGHOHFWURQLFGDWDEDVHVRUHOHFWURQ
LFUHFRUGVRISDWLHQWVIRULQSXWGDWDDQGWKDWKDYHPHQWLRQHGWKHLUYHULILFDWLRQDQGYDOLGD
WLRQDSSURDFKKDGWKHLUPRGHOVDFFXUDWHO\YDOLGDWHGDQGRUYHULILHG

 &RPSDULVRQDQG$QDO\VLV
8VLQJVLPXODWLRQVJLYHVXVWKHRSSRUWXQLW\WRLGHQWLI\SUREOHPVDQGVXJJHVWDSSURDFKHV
WKDW FDQ SURYLGH DQ HIIHFWLYH VROXWLRQ ZLWKRXW DFWXDOO\ LPSOHPHQWLQJ DOWHUQDWLYHV LQ WKH
UHDOZRUOG,QWKHKHDOWKFDUHGRPDLQWKHUHPD\ EHVHYHUDOUHDVRQV ZK\ VLPXODWLRQVDUH
DSSOLFDEOH,WPD\EHWKHORQJZDLWLQJWLPHIRUSDWLHQWVWKDWQHHGVWREHPLQLPL]HGVWUD
WHJLF GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ UHJDUGLQJ GLIIHUHQW RSHUDWLRQDO PRGHOV HJ DGGLQJ RU UHPRYLQJ
XQLWVIURPWKHKRVSLWDORUOD\RXWGHVLJQFKDQJHV RUEHWWHUVFKHGXOLQJIRUDGMXVWLQJUH
VRXUFHXWLOL]DWLRQ
'LIIHUHQWDSSOLFDWLRQVRIVLPXODWLRQRUUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQDUHEHLQJGLVFXVVHGLQ
WKHIROORZLQJVXEVHFWLRQV)RUDPRUHRUJDQL]HGDQDO\VLVRQWKHSDSHUVFRQWHQWVHYHUDO
FDWHJRULHVDUHGHILQHGDFFRUGLQJWRWKHFRQWHQWUHOHYDQFH
x 5HDOWLPH VLPXODWLRQV LQ KHDOWKFDUH DUWLFOHV LQ ZKLFK UHDOWLPH VLPXODWLRQV
KDYHEHHQLQWURGXFHGDVDVROXWLRQWRWKHLGHQWLILHGSUREOHPLQKHDOWKFDUH
x 6LPXODWLRQ PRGHOLQJ LQ KHDOWKFDUH DUWLFOHV LQ ZKLFK D VLPXODWLRQ PRGHO IRU
KHDOWKFDUHSURFHVVHVKDVEHHQFRQVWUXFWHGDQGDQDO\]HG$OPRVWDOORIWKHDS



KWWSZZZVLPXOFRP

&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ&RPSDULVRQDQG$QDO\VLV 


SURDFKHV IROORZHG WKH VDPH SURFHGXUH IRU UHDOL]LQJ VLPXODWLRQ FDSDELOLWLHV


DQGWKHVHVWHSVDUHXVHGDVVXEVHFWLRQV
 &RQFHSWXDODQGVLPXODWLRQPRGHOLQJ
 'DWDFROOHFWLRQDQGGDWDLQSXW
 6LPXODWLRQVHWXSDQGUXQ
 0RGHOYDOLGDWLRQDQGYHULILFDWLRQ
 5HSRUWVDQGRXWFRPHDQDO\VLV
x &KDOOHQJHV OLPLWDWLRQV DQG UHVWULFWLRQV LQ VLPXODWLRQV IRU KHDOWKFDUH 3DSHUV
WKDW VSHFLI\ WKH FKDOOHQJHV DQG OLPLWDWLRQV LQ XVLQJ VLPXODWLRQV ZLWKLQ WKH
KHDOWKFDUHGRPDLQ
x &RPSOHPHQWDU\SDSHUVDUWLFOHVWKDWDUHYHU\UHOHYDQWWRUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQV
EXWQRWQHFHVVDULO\DSSOLHGLQKHDOWKFDUH

 5HDOWLPH6LPXODWLRQVLQ+HDOWKFDUH

0DUPRUHWDO>@PHQWLRQWKDW('FRQJHVWLRQLVRQHRIWKHLPSRUWDQWLVVXHVWKDWPRVWRI
WKHKRVSLWDOVDUHIDFLQJQRZDGD\VZKLFKFDXVHVDJUHDWLQFUHDVHLQSDWLHQWZDLWLQJWLPH
SRRU VHUYLFH TXDOLW\ SDWLHQWV LQ FULWLFDO SDLQ VWDWXV DPEXODQFH GLYHUVLRQ DQG SDWLHQWV
OHDYLQJWKHKRVSLWDOZLWKRXWVHHLQJDGRFWRU7KHWZRPDLQLQWHQWLRQVIRUFRQGXFWLQJWKLV
UHVHDUFKZHUHWRFROOHFWUHDOSDWLHQWDUULYDOGDWDDQGWREHDEOHWRSUHGLFWWKHKRVSLWDOSHU
IRUPDQFHLQWKHQHDUIXWXUH7KHDXWKRUVLQMHFWHGWKHDUULYDOGDWDIRUDORQJHQRXJKSHULRG
RIWLPHLQWKHVLPXODWLRQPRGHOVRWKDWWKH\FRXOGHQVXUHWKHPRGHOSDVVHGWKHZDUPXS
SHULRG7KHSURFHVVRIFDUHZDVPRGHOHGLQDQ('ZLWKVL[W\SHVRILQFRPLQJSDWLHQWV
$UHQD DQG $Q\ORJLF ZHUH XVHG IRU WKH SXUSRVH RI UHDOWLPH VLPXODWLRQ 3DWLHQW DUULYDO
WLPHVZHUHGHILQHGDVDVWRFKDVWLFSURFHVVKRZHYHUWKHGDWDUHODWHGWRSDWLHQWGLVFKDUJH
WLPHGLGQRWVHHPWREHDFFXUDWHHQRXJK7KHPDLQUHDVRQZDVEHFDXVHVRPHRIWKHSD
WLHQWVZKRZHUHGLVFKDUJHGIURPWKH('KDGWRFRQWLQXHWKHLUFDUHSURFHVVLQWKHLQWHUUH
ODWHGGHSDUWPHQWVRIWKHKRVSLWDODQGWKXVWKH\HQGHGXSZDLWLQJLQWKH('WRILQDOO\JHW
DGPLWWHG WR WKH ZDUGV 7KLV FDXVHG D KXJH FRQJHVWLRQ LQ WKH (' ZKLFK WKH VLPXODWLRQ
PRGHOFRXOGQRWUHIOHFW VLQFHDVVRRQDVWKHGLVFKDUJHSURFHVVLQWKHVLPXODWLRQPRGHO
ZDVGRQHWKHSDWLHQWVZHUHDVVXPHGWRKDYHOHIWWKH('

&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ&RPSDULVRQDQG$QDO\VLV 


)RUDSURSHUUHVRXUFHVFKHGXOLQJLQDVKRUWWHUPRQOLQHVLPXODWLRQVXJJHVWHGE\
0DUPRUHWDO>@WZRPDWKHPDWLFDODSSURDFKHVZHUHFRQVLGHUHG5RXJK&XW&DSDFLW\
3ODQQLQJ DQG 2IIHUHG/RDG 7KHVH WZR DOORFDWLRQ DSSURDFKHV KDYH EHHQ FRPSDUHG LQ
WHUPVRIWKHLULPSDFWRQUHVRXUFHZRUNORDGVDQGSDWLHQWVDWLVIDFWLRQOHYHOV,Q('YDQFHLV
DGHFLVLRQVXSSRUWV\VWHPWKDWVLPXODWHVDQGSUHGLFWVWKHQHDUIXWXUHHYHQWVRIWKH('DQG
KHOSVWKHPDQDJHULQPDNLQJGHFLVLRQVE\SUHVHQWLQJWKHUHODWHGGDWDZLWKDJUDSKLFDOLQ
WHUIDFH7KHPRGHOZDVFKHFNHGIRUYDOLGLW\EXWLWLVPHQWLRQHGWKDWWKHUHDOWLPHVLPXOD
WLRQ ODWHU VKRXOG EH LPSOHPHQWHG LQ WKH KRVSLWDO IRU SURRI RI HIIHFWLYHQHVV RI WKH DS
SURDFK

 6LPXODWLRQ0RGHOLQJLQ+HDOWKFDUH

:LMHZLFNUDPDDQG7DNDNXZDPRWLYDWHGWKHLUUHVHDUFKE\SRLQWLQJRXWWKHJUHDWSRSXOD
WLRQRIHOGHUO\SHRSOHLQ-DSDQ>@$JLQJLVVXHVKDYHFUHDWHGQHZSUREOHPVLQWHUPVRI
RYHUFURZGLQJ LQ WKH KHDOWKFDUH GRPDLQ ZKLFK LV D FDXVH RI ORQJ ZDLWLQJ WLPHV IRU SD
WLHQWV7KHUHLVDFWXDOO\DIDPRXVVD\LQJLQ-DSDQHVHWKDWVWDWHVZDLWLQJIRUWKUHHKRXUV
WREHVHHQIRUWKUHHPLQXWHV>@
.ROEHWDO>@GHVFULEHRYHUFURZGLQJDVDFDXVHRIXQEDODQFHGVXSSOLHVDQG
GHPDQGV 7KLV FDQ HLWKHU EH FDXVHG E\ D ODUJH ORDG RI SDWLHQW DUULYDOV RU E\ D OLPLWHG
QXPEHURIHPSOR\HHVLQDKRVSLWDORUFOLQLFIRUVHUYLFHGHOLYHU\
:KLWH >@ PHQWLRQV WKDW FRQJHVWLRQ FDQ UHVXOW LQ ORQJ ZDLWLQJ WLPHV DV ZHOO DV
DPEXODQFH GLYHUVLRQ $Q DPEXODQFH GLYHUVLRQ RFFXUV ZKHQ D SDWLHQW ZLWK D FULWLFDO
KHDOWKVWDWXVLVEURXJKWE\DPEXODQFHWRDKRVSLWDOZKRVH('LVDOUHDG\IXOO7KHSDWLHQW
KHQFHFDQQRWEHDGPLWWHGDQGWKHDPEXODQFHVKRXOGWDNHWKHSDWLHQWWRDQRWKHUKRVSLWDO
.ROE HW DO >@ HPSKDVL]H WKDW WKH LVVXH EHFRPHV PRUH VHYHUH ZKHQ WKH DPEXODQFH LV
GLYHUWHGPXOWLSOHWLPHVIURPGLIIHUHQW('V
*RSDQNXPDU HW DO >@ LQWURGXFHG VLPXODWLRQ DV D WRRO IRU VXSSRUWLQJ VWUDWHJLF
GHFLVLRQPDNLQJDQGEHOLHYHGVLPXODWLRQLVRQHRIWKHEHVWZD\VWRREVHUYHUHDOV\VWHP
EHKDYLRXUZKHQUHDOOLIHH[SHULPHQWDWLRQVDUHLQIHDVLEOHRUWRRFRVWO\ 'HFLVLRQPDNLQJ
LQ KRVSLWDOV PD\ QRW EH DV HDV\ DV LQ RWKHU RUJDQL]DWLRQV 7KH XQSUHGLFWDEOH DUULYDOV RI
SDWLHQWVDQGOLPLWHGFDSDFLW\RIWKHUHVRXUFHVDYDLODEOHPDNHWKHGHFLVLRQPDNLQJSURFHVV
FRPSOLFDWHG$OVRWKHIDFWWKDWPDNLQJLQDSSURSULDWHGHFLVLRQVLQKRVSLWDOVPD\UHVXOWLQ

&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ&RPSDULVRQDQG$QDO\VLV 


OLIHWKUHDWHQLQJGLVDVWHUVPDNHVWKHSURFHVVHYHQPRUHFRPSOH[%DXPJDUWHWDO>@VWLS
XODWHWKDWIDVWDGDSWDWLRQWRFKDQJHVWKDWRFFXULQDKRVSLWDOLVYLWDO7KHUHIRUHWKHUHLVD
QHHG WR JHW SURSHU LQVLJKW LQWR DQ RYHUDOO V\VWHP SHUIRUPDQFH *RSDNXPDU HW DO >@
PHQWLRQ WKDW PRGHOLQJ DQG VLPXODWLRQ LV RQH VROXWLRQ 7KH LQWHQW RI D VLPXODWLRQ LV
DOLJQHG ZLWK WKH UHTXLUHG LPSURYHPHQWV LQ FKDQJH PDQDJHPHQW RI WKH SURFHVVHV $V
PHQWLRQHGLQ WKHLQWURGXFWLRQ%ODNHHW DO KDYH DOVR XVHGVLPXODWLRQ IRUVWUDWHJLFGHFL
VLRQPDNLQJLQWKHFRQWH[WRI('SDWLHQWIORZV>@

&RQFHSWXDODQG6LPXODWLRQ0RGHOLQJ
7KHUHDUHVHYHUDODSSURDFKHVDYDLODEOHIRUEXLOGLQJVLPXODWLRQPRGHOV0RVWRIWKHPH[
SORLWGLVFUHWHHYHQWVLPXODWLRQVWRFDSWXUHWKHVFRSHRIWKHSUREOHPDVLQWKHVWXG\FRQ
GXFWHGE\:RQJHWDO>@5DXQDNHWDO>@XVHG/LWWOH-,/DVDVLPXODWLRQWRRO8QOLNH
$UHQD ZKLFK VXSSRUWVDQDO\VLV EDVHGRQTXHXLQJWKHRU\ /LWWOH-,/LV EDVHGRQSURFHVV
DQGUHVRXUFHGHILQLWLRQV3URFHVVHVDUHGHILQHGLQDKLHUDUFK\RIVWHSVZKHUHDOOW\SHVRI
UHVRXUFHV DUH GHILQHG 7KHUH LV RQH UHVRXUFH W\SH WKDW GLIIHUV IURP WKH FXUUHQW UHVRXUFH
W\SHVLQSURFHVVHVDQGFDQEHFRQVLGHUHGDVDQH[WHUQDOUHVRXUFHQDPHO\DQ$JHQW5H
VRXUFHLQVWDQFHFKDUDFWHUL]DWLRQLVDUHVSRQVLELOLW\RIWKH$JHQW-6LPLVDVLPXODWLRQWRRO
WKDWXVHVD7LPH/LQHIRUSURGXFLQJHYHQWV7KHLQLWLDOVWDWHLVVHWWR]HURLQWKH7LPH/LQH
7KHQWKHVWHSWKDWVKRXOGEHH[HFXWHGDWWKHVWDUWZLOOEHLQLWLDOL]HGLQ/LWWOH-,/:KHQ
WKHVLPXODWLRQ UXQVHDFKVWHSVHQGV HYHQW V LQ WKH7LPH/LQH 7KH 7LPH/LQH SUHVHUYHV
WKHVHTXHQFHRIWKHHYHQWVWKXVWKHUHLVDFRQWLQXRXVHYHQWRFFXUUHQFHGXULQJHDFKVLPX
ODWLRQUXQ
3URWLOHWDO>@DQG5RKOGHUHWDO>@VWDWHWKDWIRUEXLOGLQJVLPXODWLRQPRGHOV
RISDWLHQWIORZVVHYHUDOPHHWLQJVZHUHKHOGDQGWKHSURFHVVHVZHUHPRQLWRUHG+RZHYHU
0DFGRQDOGHWDO>@)U\NHWDO>@DQG6SU\HWDO>@XVHGFDUHIXOREVHUYDWLRQDVWKH
RQO\PHWKRGXVHGIRUGHILQLQJSDWLHQWVSURFHVVIORZV
6WHSV WKDW VKRXOG EH IROORZHG IRU EXLOGLQJ D VLPXODWLRQ PRGHO FDQ DOVR EH H[
SUHVVHGE\PHDQVRIDFRQFHSWXDOPRGHO.ROEHWDO>@DQG:RQJHWDO>@SURSRVHGD
FRQFHSWXDOPRGHOZKLFKVSHFLILHVWKHSURFHVVVWHSV.ROEHWDO>@SURSRVHGDJHQHULF
VROXWLRQIRUDOO('FRQJHVWLRQSUREOHPVDQGWKHLUWDUJHWKRVSLWDOZDVREVHUYHGIRUDSHUL
RGRIWLPHLQRUGHUHQDEOHWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQRIDFRQFHSWXDOPRGHO:LOOLDPVDQG/HL>@

&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ&RPSDULVRQDQG$QDO\VLV 


DQG .RL]XPL HW DO >@ XVHG D PDWKHPDWLFDO FRQFHSWXDO PRGHO IRU UHVRXUFH XWLOL]DWLRQ
HYDOXDWLRQ
%D\QJDUWHWDO>@VWDUWHGZLWKFUHDWLQJDKLJKOHYHOPRGHOWKDWRQO\UHIOHFWHGWKH
PDMRUDFWLYLWLHVLQYROYHGLQ WKH WDUJHW SURFHVVHV$IWHUDWKRURXJKDQDO\VLVRIWKHWDVNV
WKHPRGHOZDVEXLOWFRYHULQJPRUHGHWDLOVRIWKHZKROHSURFHVVHV)RUEHLQJPRUHVSHFLI
LFRQPRGHOLQJKRVSLWDOSHUIRUPDQFHV.RPDVKLHHWDO>@GLYLGHGWKHKRVSLWDOLQWRVHF
WLRQVUHODWHGWRWKHVSHFLDOLW\RIWKHWKHDWUHV XQLWV DQGHDFKVHFWLRQKDVEHHQFRQVLG
HUHGLQGLYLGXDOO\LQWHUPVRILWVSHUIRUPDQFH$OVRLQWKHVWXGLHVFRQGXFWHGE\.RPDVKLH
HWDO>@:RQJHWDO>@DQG:LOOLDPDQG/HL>@SDWLHQWVDUHPRGHOHGDFFRUGLQJWR
WKHLUKHDOWKVLWXDWLRQDQGSULRULW\+RZHYHULQVRPHRIWKHVWXGLHVOLNHWKHRQHGRQHE\
%HUQDUGRHW DO >@ DQXPEHURIDFWLYLWLHVRUHQWLWLHVZHUHH[FOXGHGIRUVLPSOLI\LQJWKH
PRGHO>@)RULQVWDQFH)HLHWDO>@GLGQRWLQFOXGHWKHHPHUJHQF\SDWLHQWVZKRFDPH
WRWKHKRVSLWDOIRUKDYLQJXUJHQWVXUJHULHVLQWKHPRGHOVLQFHWKHPRGHOZDVGHILQHGRQO\
IRUVFKHGXOHGDQGSODQQHGSDWLHQWVHQWUDQFH
5DXQDNHWDO>@RIIHUDQDJHQWEDVHGVLPXODWLRQPRGHODWDQDUFKLWHFWXUDOOHYHO
0RGHOLQJZDVGRQHXVLQJ/LWWOH-,/DQGE\GRLQJVRPHFRQILJXUDWLRQVZLWK-6LP
7KHUH DUH GLIIHUHQW SXUSRVHV IRU XVLQJ PRGHOLQJ DQG VLPXODWLRQ 6SU\ DQG /DZ
OH\>@ KDYH REVHUYHG D SKDUPDF\ SHUIRUPDQFH IRU WKHLU VWXG\ 7KH QRUPDO SURFHVVHV
LQYROYHGDUHWDNLQJRUGHUVRIPHGLFDWLRQFKHFNLQJIRUFRQIOLFWVZLWKRWKHUPHGLFDWLRQV
WKDWWKHSDWLHQWLVXVLQJDQGGHOLYHULQJWKHPHGLFDWLRQ$SDUWIURPWKLVURXWLQHDWVRPH
VSHFLILFWLPHVRIDGD\ WKHVWDIIZLOOEHEXV\DQVZHULQJSKRQHFDOOVUHJDUGLQJUHTXHVWV
IRUPHGLFDWLRQ7KHDXWKRUVDUHXVLQJVLPXODWLRQIRUVFKHGXOLQJWKHUHVRXUFHV6HSXOYHGD
DQG&DKRRQ>@SURSRVHGDPRGHOWKDWHYDOXDWHVWKHLPSDFWRIGLIIHUHQWNLQGVRIKRVSLWDO
OD\RXWRQWKHRYHUDOOSHUIRUPDQFH

'DWD&ROOHFWLRQDQG'DWD,QSXW
7KHLQSXWGDWDVKRXOGEHVXIILFLHQWLQTXDQWLW\DQGDFFXUDF\IRUFUHDWLQJDFRQFUHWHVLPX
ODWLRQPRGHOWKDWSURYLGHVVXIILFLHQWO\SUHFLVHRXWSXW7KHPRUHWKHLQSXWGDWDLVDFFXUDWH
WKHPRUHUHOLDEOHWKHILQDOUHVXOWVZLOOEH
,QWKHVWXG\GRQHE\(VNDQGDULHWDO>@GDWDFROOHFWLRQZDVGRQHPDQXDOO\IRU
ZHHNVKRXUVDGD\GD\VDZHHN7KHGDWDZDVUHODWHGWRSDWLHQWVRI
WKH GDWD ZDV XVHG IRU VLPXODWLRQ SXUSRVHV DQG  ZDV NHSW IRU YDOLGDWLQJ WKH PRGHO

&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ&RPSDULVRQDQG$QDO\VLV 


5RKOGHUHWDO>@LQLWLDOO\XVHGVHOIZULWLQJPHWKRGVIRUFROOHFWLQJSDWLHQWLQIRUPDWLRQ
,QWKLVPHWKRGWKHSDWLHQWVZHUHDVNHGWRZULWHGRZQWKHLUWLPLQJLQIRUPDWLRQRQDSLHFH
RISDSHURQWKHLURZQDVWKH\JRWLQYROYHGLQHDFKRIWKHDFWLYLWLHV7KLVUHVXOWHGLQLP
SUHFLVH GDWD FROOHFWLRQ $IWHUZDUGV DQ REVHUYDWLRQ PHWKRG ZDV FKRVHQ IRU SDWLHQW GD
WD>@$OVR)HLHWDO>@FROOHFWHGUHFRUGVRISDWLHQWVLQDSHULRGRIRQH\HDUE\
XVLQJ DQ REVHUYDWLRQ PHWKRG ,Q WKH GDWD FROOHFWLRQ LQIRUPDWLRQ VKDUHG E\ .ROE HW
DO>@LW ZDVPHQWLRQHGWKDWWKHGDWD ZDV UHODWHGWR SDWLHQWV RIWKHKRVSLWDO DQG
ZDV FROOHFWHG LQ WKUHH FRQVHFXWLYH PRQWKV +RZHYHU %DXPJDUW HW DO >@>@ KDYH DQ
QRXQFHGWKDWDOWKRXJKWKHUHZDVDVKRUWFRPLQJLQWKHLUGDWDFROOHFWLRQ RQO\UHFRUGV
PDQXDOO\ FROOHFWHG DQG DSSUR[LPDWHG IRU VRPHDFWLYLWLHV  WKH\ ZHUH VWLOO DEOH WR ILJXUH
RXWVRPHYDOXDEOHLQIRUPDWLRQWKURXJKVLPXODWLRQ<XHWDO>@GLGWKHGDWDVHOHFWLRQLQ
DQDUELWUDU\ZD\
,Q WKH VWXGLHV GRQH E\ .RPDVKLH HW DO >@ DQG :LMHZLFNUDPD DQG 7DNDNXZD
>@>@GDWDFROOHFWLRQZDVWKURXJKREVHUYLQJDQGLQWHUYLHZLQJWKHDGPLQLVWUDWRUVDQG
FOLQLFDOSHRSOHDVZHOODVWKURXJKHOHFWURQLFDOO\ UHFRUGVRISDWLHQWV7KHLQSXWGDWDZDV
SDUWLDOO\WDNHQIURPDQH[LVWLQJGDWDEDVHWKDWVWRUHGSDWLHQWVWUDFNLQJUHFRUGV7KHUHVWRI
WKHGDWDZDVFROOHFWHGPDQXDOO\0DFGRQDOGHWDO>@>@KDGWKHLUGDWDFROOHFWLRQGRQH
PDQXDOO\IRUDOOWKHVWXG\
)U\NDQG6WHLQV>@GLVFXVVHGWKHEHQHILWVRIXVLQJLQIRUPDWLRQV\VWHPVIRUVWRU
LQJ SDWLHQW LQIRUPDWLRQ>@ 7KH PDLQ LQWHQWLRQ ZDV WR XVH WKH H[LVWLQJ GDWD LQ LQIRU
PDWLRQV\VWHPVDVLQSXWGDWDIRUVLPXODWLRQ+RZHYHUWKHGDWDFROOHFWLRQZDVQRWDFFX
UDWHHQRXJKVLQFHWKHKRVSLWDOZDVXVLQJWZRVHSDUDWHLQIRUPDWLRQV\VWHPVIRUUHFRUGLQJ
SDWLHQWV LQIRUPDWLRQ DQG DOVR VLQFH WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ V\VWHPV ZHUH GHVLJQHG PRVWO\ IRU
ELOOLQJSXUSRVHVUDWKHUWKDQSURFHVVIORZGDWD 0DUPRUHW DO>@FROOHFWHGPRVWRIWKH
GDWDXVLQJLQIRUPDWLRQV\VWHPV)RULQVWDQFHIRUFROOHFWLQJWKHDUULYDOGDWDWKH\XVHGD
VLQJOHKRXURIRQHVSHFLILFZRUNLQJGD\RIWKHZHHN 7XHVGD\ IRUWKHSDVW7XHVGD\V
DWWKHVDPHKRXU7KH\XVHGD0RYLQJ$YHUDJHPHWKRGRORJ\RQWKHGDWDFROOHFWHGLQ
HDFKKRXURIWKHGD\
%HUQDUGRHWDO>@DQG0DFGRQDOGHWDO>@JRWWKHLULQSXWGDWDIURPWKHKLVWRUL
FDO GDWD WKDW WKH KRVSLWDO KDG UHFRUGHG :KHUH LQFRPSOHWH GDWD ZDV IDFHG LQWHUYLHZV
ZHUHGRQHZLWKWKH('VWDIIWRFROOHFWVXSSRUWLYHGDWD

&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ&RPSDULVRQDQG$QDO\VLV 


*XQDODQG3LGG>@XVHGWZRVHWVRIGDWDIURPWZRGLIIHUHQWLQIRUPDWLRQV\VWHPV
WKDWZHUHFROOHFWHGDQGLQWHJUDWHGLQRQHILOHLQRUGHUWREHIHGWRWKH'*+36LPVLPXOD
WLRQWRRO XVHGLQVRPHRIWKHJHQHUDOKRVSLWDOVLQWKH8.IRUEXLOGLQJDQGREVHUYLQJSRV
VLEOH LPSURYHPHQW DOWHUQDWLYHV  7KH ILUVW VHW RI GDWD FDPH IURP WKH KRVSLWDOV 3DWLHQW
$GPLQLVWUDWLRQ6\VWHPDQGWKHVHFRQGVHWIURP +HDOWK(SLVRGH6WDWLVWLFVGHYHORSHG E\
WKH8.'HSDUWPHQW RI +HDOWK$WRROZDVGHYHORSHGWKDWFRXOG WUDQVIRUPWKHGDWDWR D
IRUPDWWKDWWKHVLPXODWLRQWRRO'*+36LPFRXOGXVH
%DXPJDUWHWDO>@>@%HUQDUGRHWDO>@DQG:LMHZLFNUDPDDQG7DNDNXZD>@
XWLOL]HGDQH[WHUQDODSSOLFDWLRQLQWKH$UHQDSDFNDJHFDOOHG,QSXW$QDO\]HUDQGWKHLQSXW
GDWDZDVILWWRVWDWLVWLFDOGLVWULEXWLRQV7KHGLVWULEXWLRQVUHSUHVHQWHGWKHEHKDYLRXURIHQWL
WLHVDQGZHUHXVHGLQVWHDGRIDFWXDOSXUHGDWD&HQWHQRDQG,VPDLO>@FRQVLGHUHGSDWLHQW
W\SHVGLIIHUHQWLDWLRQDQGVHSDUDWHGLVWULEXWLRQVZHUHGHILQHGIRUHDFKW\SHRISDWLHQWVE\
FROOHFWLQJUHODWHGGDWD0RUHRYHUWKURXJKWKHVWXGLHVFRQGXFWHGE\.RPDVKLHHWDO>@
DQG5RKOGHUHWDO>@GDWDZDVJDWKHUHGIURP LQIRUPDWLRQV\VWHPGDWDEDVHVDQG([
SHUWILWZDVXVHGIRUILWWLQJWKHGDWDWRVWDWLVWLFDOGLVWULEXWLRQV&RFKUDQDQG%KDUWL>@
XVHG%HVW)LWWRILWWKHGDWDLQWRNQRZQGLVWULEXWLRQV
$OYDUH]DQG&HQHWHQR>@XVHG9%$LQ$UHQDDQGGHYHORSHGDQLQWHUIDFHZKHUH
LQSXWGDWDZDVDVNHGIURPWKHXVHUDQGZKHUHWKH9%$FRGHILWVWKHJLYHQGDWDWRDVWDWLV
WLFDO GLVWULEXWLRQ IRU SURFHVV WLPLQJV RU DUULYDOV 7KLV LV FRQILJXUDEOH WKURXJK GDWDEDVH
WUDQVIRUPDWLRQOLEUDULHVDQGVHWWDEOHGXUDWLRQVDQGQXPEHUVRIUHSOLFDWLRQV
:RQJ HW DO>@ :LOOLDPV HW DO>@ .RL]XPL HW DO>@ DQG +ROP DQG
'DKO>@GLVFXVVHGWKHZDUPXSSHULRGDQGH[FOXGHGWKHGDWDFROOHFWHGGXULQJWKDWSHUL
RG 7KH\ PDGH VXUH WKDW WKH RXWSXWV ZHUH VXIILFLHQWO\ DFFXUDWH DQG UHOLDEOH +ROP DQG
'DKO>@PHQWLRQWKDWWKHDSSURDFKWDNHQIRUILJXULQJRXWWKHGXUDWLRQRIZDUPXSSHUL
RGZDVWRSORWWKHRXWFRPHUHVXOWVIRUDVSHFLILFGXUDWLRQRIUXQWLPHDQGGHFLGHYLVXDOO\
RQWKHSHULRG

6LPXODWLRQ6HWXSDQG5XQ
%DXPJDUWHWDO>@DQG%HUQDUGRHWDO>@XVHG$UHQDIRUPRGHOLQJMXVWOLNHPDQ\RWKHUV
VHH 7DEOH   +RZHYHU 6SU\ DQG /DZOH\ >@GLG QRW XVH D VLPXODWLRQ PRGHOLQJ WRRO
,QVWHDGWKH\GHYHORSHGZULWWHQFRGHWKDWQRWRQO\H[HFXWHGWKHVLPXODWLRQUXQVEXWDOVR


KWWSZZZSDOLVDGHFRPULVN

&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ&RPSDULVRQDQG$QDO\VLV 


KHOSHG PDNH GHFLVLRQV DFFRUGLQJ WR PXOWLSOH VFHQDULR UHVXOWV 6LQFH WKHLU VRIWZDUH KDV
EHHQGHYHORSHGVSHFLILFDOO\IRUDFHUWDLQSKDUPDF\JHQHUDOL]LQJDQGSRUWLQJWKHVRIWZDUH
IRUXVHLQRWKHUSKDUPDFLHVLVDGLIILFXOWWDVN
5DXQDNHWDO>@VWDWHGWKDWDGMXVWLQJWKHUHVRXUFHDOORFDWLRQLVRQHRIWKHSRVVL
EOHDSSURDFKHVWDNHQIRUVLPXODWLRQVFHQDULRUXQV$GGLQJRURPLWWLQJUHVRXUFHVVKRXOG
EHGHFLGHGFDUHIXOO\NQRZLQJWKDWRPLWWLQJ PD\FDXVHRYHUXWLOL]DWLRQRIWKHUHPDLQLQJ
UHVRXUFHVDQGDGGLQJPD\OHDGWRXQGHUXWLOL]DWLRQRIUHVRXUFHVDWVRPHSRLQWV
.ROEHWDO>@SURSRVHGILYHZD\VRIXVLQJEXIIHUVIRU('VHDFKRIZKLFKZLWKD
QXPEHURIGLIIHUHQWVFHQDULRVWRUXQ:LMHZLFNUDPDDQG7DNDNXZD>@SURSRVHGGLIIHU
HQWDSSRLQWPHQWVFKHGXOHVDVGLIIHUHQWDOWHUQDWLYHVWRUXQ
+RZHYHU *RSDNXPDU HW DO >@ 5RKOGHU HW DO >@ DQG 3URWLO HW DO >@ SUR
SRVHGDOLPLWHGDQGSUHSODQQHGQXPEHURIVFHQDULRVWKDWQHHGHGWREHFKHFNHGIRUWKHLU
RXWFRPHV*RSDNXPDUHWDO>@ZHUHRQO\LQWHUHVWHGLQUXQQLQJWZRVSHFLILFVFHQDULRV
IRUFKRRVLQJRQHDVDVWUDWHJLFGHFLVLRQ3URWLOHWDO>@FKHFNHGWKUHHVSHFLILFVFHQDULRV
WR VHH ZKLFK RQH ZRXOG EH WKH PRVW EHQHILFLDO DQG ZRXOG SUHYHQW WKH ORQJ GXUDWLRQ RI
VXUJLFDOFHQWHUVLGOHQHVVLQWKHORQJUXQ

0RGHO9DOLGDWLRQDQG9HULILFDWLRQ
,Q VRPH RI WKH DSSURDFKHV OLNH WKH UHVHDUFK FRQGXFWHG E\ .RPDVKLH HW DO >@ RU E\
5RKOGHUHWDO>@YHULILFDWLRQKDVQRWEHHQGRQHIRUWKHPRGHODQGRQO\YDOLGDWLRQ
RIWKHSURFHVVLVFRYHUHG)RUYHULI\LQJWKHLUPRGHOV*RSDNXPDUHWDO>@(VNDQGDULHW
DO>@DQG6HSXOYHGDHWDO>@XVHGWKHDQLPDWLRQIHDWXUHVRIWKHVLPXODWLRQVRIWZDUH
ZKLFKSURYLGHGWKHUHVHDUFKHUVZLWKLQVLJKWDERXWWKHORJLFRIWKHV\VWHPDQGWKHV\VWHP
ZDVGHHPHGWREHZRUNLQJDVH[SHFWHG6HSXOYHGDHWDO>@YHULILHGWKHPRGHOE\XVLQJ
DIHDWXUHLQWKHVLPXODWLRQVRIWZDUH$UHQD7KH7UDFHRSWLRQJDYHWKHXVHUWKLVRSSRU
WXQLW\WRYHULI\WKHPRGHODFFRUGLQJWRVLPXODWLRQUXOHV0DUPRUHWDO>@YDOLGDWHGWKHLU
PRGHOE\UXQQLQJVLPXODWLRQVZLWKUHSOLFDWLRQVDQGFRPSDULQJWKHUHVXOWVZLWKH[LVW
LQJGDWDLQDGDWDEDVH$IWHUZDUGVWKH\XVHGWKHLQSXWGDWDDVWKHGDWDRIDVSHFLILFGD\
XQWLODFHUWDLQKRXURIWKDWGD\7KHQUDQWKHVLPXODWLRQPRGHOWRFKHFNZKHWKHUWKHRXW
FRPHUHVXOWVZHUHFORVHHQRXJKWRWKHDFWXDOGDWDWKH\FROOHFWHG
$EDVLFLQVSHFWLRQDSSURDFKKDVEHHQWDNHQIRUYDOLGDWLQJWKHPRGHOLQWKHVWXG\
FRQGXFWHGE\%DXPJDUWHWDO>@DQG.RPDVKLHHWDO>@7KH\YDOLGDWHGWKHLUPRGHOE\

&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ&RPSDULVRQDQG$QDO\VLV 


UXQQLQJWKHV\VWHPZLWKFXUUHQWGDWDDQGFRPSDULQJWKHPRGHOUHVXOWVZLWKWKHDFWXDOGD
WD$OWKRXJKWKH\ZHUHIDFLQJDFRQVLGHUDEOHGLIIHUHQFHLQERWKSDWLHQWWKURXJKSXWWLPHDV
ZHOODV RSHUDWLRQURRP UXQQLQJWLPH WKH\ DQQRXQFHG WKDWWKHLUPRGHOPHWWKHRYHUDOO
FUHGLELOLW\FULWHULRQ7KH\YHULILHGWKHPRGHOE\VKRZLQJWKHIORZWRFOLQLFDOSHRSOHDQG
REWDLQLQJ WKHLU FRQILUPDWLRQ ,Q DQRWKHU VWXG\ FRQGXFWHG E\ 0DFGRQDOG HW DO >@ LQ
VSLWHRILQDFFXUDFLHVLQIRXUDUHDVRIWKHUHVHDUFKVFRSHWKHPRGHOZDVVDLGWREHYDOLGDW
HG DQG YHULILHG DQG DOO WKH LQDFFXUDFLHV ZHUH FRQVLGHUHG DV VLPXODWLRQ OLPLWDWLRQV 7KH
ILUVW LVVXHZDV WKHWRWDO WKURXJKSXW WLPHRIWKHSDWLHQWV ZKLFKKDG DURXQGPLQXWHV
GLIIHUHQFHIURPWKHDFWXDOYDOXH7KHVHFRQGLVVXHZDVWKHZDLWLQJWLPHVRISDWLHQWVIRU
VRPHVSHFLILFSURFHVVHVWKDWGLIIHUHGE\DERXWPLQXWHVIURPWKHDFWXDOGDWD7KHWKLUG
LVVXHZDVWKHDVVLJQPHQWRIWKHSDWLHQWWRDVSHFLILFGRFWRUXQWLOWKHHQGRIWKHFDUHSUR
FHVVZKLFKZDVQRWPRGHOHGSURSHUO\$IRXUWKLVVXHZDVWKDWDWWKHEHJLQQLQJRIHDFK
GD\WKHQXPEHURISDWLHQWVLQWKH('ZDVVHWWR]HURRPLWWLQJDOOWKHH[LVWLQJSDWLHQWV
IURPWKHV\VWHP
:LMHZLFNUDPD DQG 7DNDNXZD >@ REVHUYHG WKDW WKH PRGHO YDOLGDWLRQ ZDV WKH
PRVWWLPHFRQVXPLQJVWHSRIPDNLQJ WKHLUVLPXODWLRQPRGHO(VNDQGDULHWDO>@YDOL
GDWHGWKHLUPRGHOE\FDOFXODWLQJWKHSDWLHQWWKURXJKSXWWLPHGXULQJVLPXODWLRQUXQVDQG
FRPSDULQJLWWRWKHRIWKHLQSXWGDWDWKDWZDVNHSWXQXVHGIRUYDOLGDWLQJWKHV\VWHP
(YHQWXDOO\WKHPRGHOZDVVDLGWREHYDOLGDQGYHULILHG
,QDGLIIHUHQWSDSHU:LMHZLFNUDPDDQG7DNDNXZD>@DOVRYDOLGDWHGWKHLUPRGHO
E\XVLQJDGDWDJHQHUDWRUFRGHGLQ9%$WKURXJKZKLFKWKHXVHULVDOORZHGWRPRGLI\
WKHLQSXWGDWD ZLWKRXWPDNLQJDQ\FKDQJHWRWKHPRGHOLWVHOI DQGREVHUYHWKHRXWFRPH
7KHDXWKRUVYHULILHGWKHPRGHOE\VHWWLQJGLIIHUHQWSDWLHQWDUULYDOUDWHVDQGLQFUHDVLQJWKH
UDWHSHUFHQWDJHLQHDFKUXQWRILJXUHRXWWKHHIIHFWLYHQHVVLQWKHDYHUDJHZDLWLQJWLPHRI
WKHSDWLHQWV $OVRWKHQXPEHURISDWLHQWV REVHUYHGZDV UDLVHGE\ LQFUHDVLQJWKH DUULYDO
UDWH

5HSRUWVDQG2XWFRPH$QDO\VLV
0DFGRQDOGHWDO>@.ROEHWDO>@*RSDNXPDUHWDO>@.RPDVKLHHWDO>@DQG
.RONHU>@LOOXVWUDWHGWKHRXWSXWUHVXOWVRIVLPXODWLRQUXQVXVLQJGLIIHUHQWFKDUWVDQGWD
EOHVIRUDTXLFNHUUHYLVLRQDQGHYDOXDWLRQ

&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ&RPSDULVRQDQG$QDO\VLV 


%DXPJDUWHWDO>@GHILQHGDVSHFLILFDQGOLPLWHGQXPEHURIUHVRXUFHVFKHGXOLQJ
FRQILJXUDWLRQV WR UXQ 7KH UHVRXUFH XWLOL]DWLRQ LV XQGHU REVHUYDWLRQ IRU LWV TXDQWLW\ DQG
SHUFHQWDJH RI ZRUNORDG %\ LQFUHDVLQJ WKH QXPEHU RI UHVRXUFHV WKH XWLOL]DWLRQ RI UH
VRXUFHV GHFUHDVHV +RZHYHU DW D FHUWDLQ SRLQW WKLV DSSURDFK VHHPV WR KDYH D QHJDWLYH
LPSDFWRQSHUIRUPDQFH
:LMHZLFNUDPD DQG 7DNDNXZD >@ XVHG DQRWKHU DSSURDFK IRU ILQGLQJ WKH RSWL
PL]HGDOWHUQDWLYH$UHQDV2SW4XHVWLVXVHGDVDQRSWLPL]DWLRQDSSOLFDWLRQ WRDXWRPDWL
FDOO\ VHDUFK IRU WKH EHVW VROXWLRQ JLYHQ DQ REMHFWLYH IXQFWLRQ DQG FRQVWUDLQWV &DOFXOD
WLRQVZHUHGRQHIRUZDLWLQJWLPHVRIHDFKSDWLHQWFDWHJRU\DVZHOODVIRUDQRYHUDOOSDWLHQW
ZDLWLQJWLPH7KHRXWFRPHUHVXOWVZHUHVKRZLQJWKDWRIWKHWRWDOZDLWLQJWLPHVZHUH
UHODWHGWRWZRVSHFLILFFDWHJRULHVRISDWLHQWVDPRQJWHQ7KHLQWHQWLRQZDVWRILJXUHRXWD
SURSHUVFKHGXOLQJIRUUHGXFLQJWKHSDWLHQWWLPHVZLWKRXWDGGLQJDQ\UHVRXUFHVZKLFKLQ
WKHHQGZDVDFFRPSOLVKHG:HQJHWDO>@XVHGWKH1DWLRQDO(PHUJHQF\'HSDUWPHQW
2YHUFURZGLQJ6FDOH 1('2&6 LQDGGLWLRQWRWKH2SW4XHVW UHVXOWVDQGFDPHXSZLWK
DQRSWLPL]HGVFHQDULR1('2&6LVFDOFXODWHGZLWKDVSHFLILFIRUPXODDQGLIWKHYDOXH
LVKLJKHUWKDQWKHQWKLVLQGLFDWHVWKDWWKH('LVRYHUFURZGHG
(VNDQGDULHWDO>@VKRZHGWKDWE\DSSO\LQJQHZVWUDWHJLHVDQGZLWKDUHDOO\ORZ
FRVWWKHSDWLHQWZDLWLQJWLPHZDVUHGXFHGE\RYHU,QWKLVVWXG\IRXUWHHQVFHQDULRV
ZHUHVSHFLILHGE\H[SHUWV)RUFKRRVLQJWKHEHVWVFHQDULRSHUIRUPDQFHVWKH$QDO\WLF+L
HUDUFK\3URFHVV $+3 ZDVXVHGIROORZHGE\DWHFKQLTXHFDOOHG7HFKQLTXH2UGHUHG3UHI
HUHQFHE\6LPLODULW\WRWKH,GHDO6ROXWLRQ 7236,6 $IWHUFULWHULDZHUHVHWIRUFKRRVLQJ
WKH EHVW VFHQDULR $+3 ZDV XVHG IRU TXDQWLI\LQJ WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI HDFK RI WKH
VXE FULWHULDDQGWREHDEOHWRSULRULWL]HWKHPRVWLPSRUWDQWRQHV$IWHUHDFKFULWHULRQJRW
ZHLJKWHGHDFKVFHQDULRKDGDFHUWDLQZHLJKW7KHVWUDWHJ\EHKLQG7236,6IRUFKRRVLQJ
WKHEHVWVFHQDULRLVWKDWWKHHYHQWXDODOWHUQDWLYHVKRXOGKDYHWKHVKRUWHVWGLVWDQFHIURPWKH
3RVLWLYH,GHDO6ROXWLRQDQGVKRXOGKDYHWKHIXUWKHVWGLVWDQFHIURPWKH1HJDWLYH,GHDO6R
OXWLRQ,QWKLVVWXG\WKHDOWHUQDWLYHZLWKWKHPD[LPXPVFRUHIRUWKH7236,6PHDVXUHLQ
GLFDWRUZDVFKRVHQDVWKHEHVWVFHQDULR&HQWHQRDQG,VPDLO>@LQWHJUDWHG$UHQDZLWKD



KWWSZZZQHGRFVRUJ

&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ&RPSDULVRQDQG$QDO\VLV 


OLQHDU SURJUDPPLQJ VRIWZDUH /,1*2  XVLQJ 9%$ FRGLQJ 7KH GHFLVLRQV PDGH ZHUH
RSWLPL]HGDQGWKHEHVWVROXWLRQZDVFRQVLGHUHG

 &KDOOHQJHV/LPLWDWLRQVDQG5HVWULFWLRQVRI6LPXODWLRQVIRU
+HDOWKFDUH

6HYHUDOLVVXHVZHUHUHSRUWHGLQWKHVWXG\FRQGXFWHGE\0DUPRUHWDO>@7KHILUVWRQH
ZDVWKHDSSURDFKWDNHQWRPDNHVXUHWKHVLPXODWLRQPRGHOZDVUHIOHFWLQJWKHUHDO('V\V
WHP$QRWKHULVVXHDGGUHVVHGZDVLQSXWGDWDDFFXUDF\2QHRIWKHUHDVRQVIRUWKHVHLQDF
FXUDFLHV LV WKDW WKH SDWLHQWV ZKR ZHUH GRQH XVLQJ (' VHUYLFHV VRPHWLPHV QHHGHG WR EH
WUDQVIHUUHGWRRWKHUXQLWVRIWKHKRVSLWDO+RZHYHULIWKHGHVWLQDWLRQXQLWZDVDOUHDG\IXOO
WKHSDWLHQWVKRXOGKDYHWRFRQWLQXHZDLWLQJLQ('IRUDIUHHVSRWLQWKHQH[WXQLW
%DXPJDUWHW DO>@DQQRXQFHGWKDWWKHLUVLPXODWLRQ PRGHOGLGQRW UHIOHFW SURSHU
UHVRXUFHVKDULQJLQSDUDOOHOSURFHVVHV$QRWKHUOLPLWDWLRQLQWKHLUPRGHOZDVWKDWLQUHDOL
W\ WZR W\SHV RI UHVRXUFHV FRXOG LQWHUFKDQJHDEO\ GR WKH VDPH WDVN D VLWXDWLRQ WKDW WKH
PRGHOFRXOGQRWKDQGOH7KHWKLUGSUREOHPPHQWLRQHGZDVWKHPLVVLQJIDFWRUTXDOLW\RI
SHUIRUPDQFHZKLFKFRXOGQRWEHHYDOXDWHGWKURXJKDVLPXODWLRQPRGHO
2QHRIWKHFKDOOHQJHVUHSRUWHGLQWKHVWXG\GRQHE\5DXQDNHWDO>@LVWKDWWKHLU
VLPXODWLRQWRROGLGQRWVXSSRUWVWDIITXDQWLW\FKDQJHVGXULQJZRUNLQJKRXUVRIDGD\
:HQJHWDO>@PDGHVHYHUDODVVXPSWLRQVIRUFUHDWLQJWKHLUPRGHOZKLFKDUHED
VLFDOO\WKHOLPLWDWLRQVIDFHG
x 7KHVWDIISURGXFWLYLW\TXDOLW\RIZRUNZDVDVVXPHGWREHXQLIRUP
x 'HSDUWPHQWVZHUHRSHUDWLQJLQGLYLGXDOO\
x 3DWLHQWV /:%6 /HDYH :LWKRXW %HLQJ 6HHQ  ZDV QRW FRQVLGHUHG LQ FUHDWLQJ
WKHVLPXODWLRQPRGHO
x ('ZDVLQDQRUPDOVLWXDWLRQDQGQRH[WHUQDOHYHQWVZHUHLQWHUIHULQJZLWKWKH
FXUUHQWVWDWH
x 7UDLQHHVZHUHH[FOXGHGIURPWKHPRGHO

:LWKDOOWKHVHFKDOOHQJHVLQYROYHGWKLVVWXG\FRQFOXGHGWKDWDGGLQJRQHUHVRXUFHZRXOG
VLJQLILFDQWO\LPSDFWWKHRXWFRPHUHVXOWV


KWWSZZZOLQGRFRPSURGXFWVOLQJR

&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ&RPSDULVRQDQG$QDO\VLV 


%DUMLV>@FRQVLGHUHGWKHGDWDFROOHFWLQJSURFHGXUHWREHRQHRIWKHPRVWFKDOOHQJ
LQJSDUWVRIPRGHOLQJDQGVLPXODWLRQIRUKHDOWKFDUH7KHUHTXLUHGLQIRUPDWLRQLVRIWHQQRW
LQFOXGHGLQ WKHKLVWRULFDO GDWDDQGWKHUHIRUHVKRXOG EHFROOHFWHGWKURXJK DQREVHUYDWLRQ
DSSURDFKRUWKURXJKGLVFXVVLRQVZLWKFOLQLFDOSHRSOH8VLQJWKHODWWHUPHWKRGVWKHGDWD
FROOHFWLRQHUURUZLOOLQFUHDVHDQGPD\HYHQUHVXOWLQLQFRUUHFWRXWSXWUHVXOWV'DLO\GHFL
VLRQPDNLQJVHHPVWREHDYHU\HIIHFWLYHZD\RILPSURYLQJV\VWHPSHUIRUPDQFHRQO\LI
WKHVLPXODWLRQPRGHOLVIOH[LEOHHQRXJKWRUHIOHFWDFFXUDWHO\WKHUHDOV\VWHP,IWKLVFRQ
VWUDLQWLVQRWPHWWKHVLPXODWLRQZLOOEHXVHIXO RQO\IRUDFDSWXUHGVFHQHRIWKHFXUUHQW
V\VWHP DQG QRW IRU FRQVWDQW LPSURYHPHQW )XUWKHUPRUH %DUMLV >@ 3UHVWRQ :KLWH >@
DQG<RXQJHWDO>@PHQWLRQHGWKDWKHDOWKFDUHLVDPRQJWKHGRPDLQVZKHUHKXPDQIDF
WRUVLQWHUIHUHWKHPRVW7KHKXPDQLQWHUDFWLRQVWKDWDUHQRWV\VWHPDWLFDQGFDQEHVXEMHF
WLYHRQFHUWDLQRFFDVLRQVZLOODPSOLI\WKHFRPSOH[LW\RIPRGHOLQJSDWLHQWFDUHSURFHVVHV
7KHPRGHOVVKRXOGUHIOHFWWKHV\VWHPZLWKDOOLWVFRPSOH[LWLHVZKLFKLVEDVLFDOO\DFKDO
OHQJHLQVLPXODWLRQIRUKHDOWKFDUH$OVR %DUMLV>@DGGHGWKDWUHJDUGLQJOLPLWDWLRQVQRW
PXFKDWWHQWLRQKDVEHHQJLYHQWRFRQFHSWXDOPRGHOLQJZKLFKLVWKHILUVWVWHSRIDVLPXOD
WLRQDQGPRGHOLQJSURFHVV
7KHVHPDQ\FKDOOHQJHVDUHHFKRHGE\&DUWHUDQG%ODNHZKRVKDUHGWKHLUYLHZV
RQGLIIHUHQWLVVXHVUHODWHGWRWKHXVHRIVLPXODWLRQLQKHDOWKFDUHEDVHGRQPDQ\\HDUVRI
H[SHULHQFHDQGH[SHULPHQWV>@

 &RPSOHPHQWDU\3DSHUV

5R]LQDW HW DO>@ EHOLHYH WKDW UHDOWLPH VLPXODWLRQV FDQ EH XVHG IRU VKRUWWHUP RSHUD
WLRQDO GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ LQ RUJDQL]DWLRQV 7KH\ DOVR PHQWLRQ WKDW XQWLO QRZ PRVW RI WKH
VLPXODWLRQVWXGLHVKDYHIRFXVHGRIDSSURDFKHVIRUVWUDWHJLFDQGORQJWHUPGHFLVLRQPDN
LQJ7KH\XVHGUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQVIRUPRGHOLQJDFUHGLWFDUGSURFHVVWRGHILQHWKHXVD
ELOLW\RIWKHUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQDSSURDFKIRUGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ7KH\KDYHGHILQHGWKHLU
RZQODQJXDJHDQGKDYHXVHGDFRORXUHG3HWULQHWIRUVLPXODWLRQPRGHOLQJ7KH\KDYHLQ
WHJUDWHGDZRUNIORZPDQDJHUZLWKDVLPXODWLRQPRGHOWKH\ORDGHGWKHVLPXODWLRQPRGHO
ZLWKWKHLQLWLDOVWDWHGDWDUHODWHGWRWKHFUHGLWFDUGDSSOLFDWLRQVLQSURFHVVDQGWKH\SUH
GLFWHGWKHVWDWHRIWKHV\VWHPIRUQHDUIXWXUHHYHQWV7KLVLVYHU\FORVHWRZKDWZHSUR

&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ&RPSDULVRQDQG$QDO\VLV 


SRVHLQWKLVWKHVLVEXWWKH\GRLWIRUDGRPDLQZKHUHDFFXUDWHDQGWLPHO\GDWDLVHDVLHUWR
JHW:HZLOOUHYLVLWWKHLUDSSURDFKLQ&KDSWHULQDPRUHGHWDLOHGPDQQHU

 6XPPDU\
$FFRUGLQJWRSDSHUVUHYLHZHGLQWKLVFKDSWHUVLPXODWLRQLVDWHFKQLTXHWKDWHQDEOHVRE
WDLQLQJVLJQLILFDQWO\YDOXDEOHLQIRUPDWLRQDERXWDFXUUHQWV\VWHPDVZHOODVIXWXUHV\VWHP
SHUIRUPDQFHHYHQLQDKHDOWKFDUHFRQWH[W6LPXODWLRQFDQEHXVHGWRIRUHFDVWXSFRPLQJ
HYHQWVDQGUHODWHGFRQVHTXHQFHV$FFHVVLQJWKLVLQIRUPDWLRQFDQKHOSPDNHDSSURSULDWH
GHFLVLRQV SULRU WR SUHGLFWDEOH HYHQW RFFXUUHQFHV :H KDYH DOVR OHDUQHG WKDW $UHQD LV D
SRSXODUVLPXODWLRQWRROLQKHDOWKFDUHDQGWKDWQRWPXFKFRQVLGHUDWLRQKDVEHHQGHYRWHGLQ
FUHDWLQJDFRQFHSWXDOPRGHOSULRUWREXLOGLQJDVLPXODWLRQPRGHOLQKHDOWKFDUH
0RVWRIWKHVWXGLHVIRFXVRQVLPXODWLRQFDSDELOLWLHVIRUIDFLOLWDWLQJVWUDWHJLFGHFL
VLRQPDNLQJ,QWKHVHVWXGLHVWKHVFRSHZDVDVVXPHGWREHLQDQRUPDOVLWXDWLRQZLWKRXW
DQ\LQWHUIHULQJH[WHUQDOHYHQWVRFFXUUHQFHVGXULQJWKHSUHGLFWLRQKRUL]RQ/HVVFRQVLGHU
DWLRQKDVEHHQJLYHQWRXVLQJVLPXODWLRQIRURSHUDWLRQDOGHFLVLRQPDNLQJLQKHDOWKFDUH
7KHEHQHILWVRIXVLQJFRQFXUUHQF\RIVLPXODWLRQUXQVKDYHEHHQGLVFXVVHGLQVRPH
RIWKHVWXGLHV+RZHYHUPRVWSDSHUVGLGQRWPHQWLRQDQ\DFWXDOWULDOVIRUH[SHULPHQWLQJ
RQKRZHIIHFWLYHD UHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQ ZRXOG EHLQ WHUPV RISHUIRUPDQFHDQDO\VLVDQG
GHFLVLRQPDNLQJ,QIDFWWKHUHZDVRQO\RQHSDSHUUHDOO\GLVFXVVLQJUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQV
LQKHDOWKFDUH>@DQGYHU\IHZDUHDFWXDOO\SXEOLVKHGLQRWKHUGRPDLQVH[FHSWIRUWKH
UHVHDUFKFRQGXFWHGE\5R]LQDWHWDO>@
,QPDQ\DSSURDFKHVWKHVFRSHRIWKHVLPXODWLRQPRGHOLQJZDVOLPLWHGWRRQHVSH
FLILFGHSDUWPHQWRIDKRVSLWDO)RUH[DPSOH('LVRQHRIWKHPRVWSRSXODUGHSDUWPHQWV
IRUVLPXODWLRQUHVHDUFK$OWKRXJKHDFKRIWKHGHSDUWPHQWVRIDKRVSLWDOLVDVVXPHGWREH
ZRUNLQJVHSDUDWHO\IURPRQHDQRWKHUWKHUHLVVWLOODQLQWHUDFWLRQDPRQJWKHPDVWKHSD
WLHQWV DUH EHLQJ IUHTXHQWO\ WUDQVIHUUHG IURP RQH GHSDUWPHQW WR DQRWKHU (YHU\ GHFLVLRQ
HDFKGHSDUWPHQW RUVHFWLRQPDNHVVRPHKRZDIIHFWV WKHUHVW RIWKHGHSDUWPHQWV)RULQ
VWDQFHWKH('PDQDJHUFDQPDNHDGHFLVLRQWKDWZRXOGUHVXOWLQOHVVFRQJHVWLRQLQ('
EXW ZRXOG DOVR OHDG WR DQ RYHUFURZGLQJ VLWXDWLRQ LQ VRPH RWKHU GHSDUWPHQW VRPHWLPH
UHVXOWLQJLQDZRUVHSDWLHQWIORZSHUIRUPDQFH 7KHUHIRUHWKHODUJHUWKHVFRSHWKHPRUH
FRPSOH[WKHPRGHOEHFRPHVVRWKHPRVWDSSURSULDWHPRGHOLQJZD\VKRXOGFRQVLGHUWKH

&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ6XPPDU\ 


UHODWHGFRQVHTXHQFHV RI GHFLVLRQPDNLQJ IRUVHYHUDO GHSDUWPHQWVRUVHFWLRQVVLPXOWDQH


RXVO\
%DVHGRQWKLVNQRZOHGJHDQGRQWKHXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKHGRPDLQEXLOWIURPWKLV
V\VWHPDWLFOLWHUDWXUHUHYLHZWKHQH[WFKDSWHUZLOOSUHVHQWWKHJHQHUDOSKDVHVDQGVWHSVRXU
PHWKRGRORJ\IRUUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQRIKHDOWKFDUHSURFHVVHVZKLFKZLOOWKHQEHLQVWDQ
WLDWHGIRURXUFDVHVWXG\LQ&KDSWHUDQG&KDSWHU RQHIRUHDFKRIWKHWZRSKDVHV 

&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ6XPPDU\ 
&KDSWHU 5HDOWLPH6LPXODWLRQVLQ+HDOWKFDUH

7KLVFKDSWHUSUHVHQWVDQHZPHWKRGRORJ\WKDWHQDEOHVUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQVLQKHDOWKFDUH
,WFRQWDLQVWZRSKDVHVWKDWVKRXOGEHFRPSOHWHGIRUUHDOL]LQJUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQFDSD
ELOLWLHVXVLQJDVLPXODWLRQWRROPRGHOFUHDWLRQDQGPRGHOH[HFXWLRQ(DFKRIWKHVHSKDVHV
LVGLYLGHGLQWRGHWDLOHGVWHSVWKDWVKRXOGEHIROORZHGLQRUGHUWRHQVXUHDUHDOWLPHVLPX
ODWLRQPRGHOLVEXLOWWKDWUHIOHFWVWKHDFWXDOIORZXQGHUREVHUYDWLRQ7KHVHVWHSVDUHGLV
FXVVHGLQWKHIROORZLQJVHFWLRQV

 5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ6WHSV2YHUYLHZ

Define
Problem

Constructing a
Ph

Conceptual
as

Model
e

Creating a
1:

Simulation
Cr

Model
ea

Data
tio

Collection
n

Data Input

Simulation
Setup
Ph

Model
as

Validation &
Verification
e
2

Running Base
:E

Case & What-


xe

if Scenarios
cu

Output
tio

Analysis
n

Making
Decisions

Taking Actions


)LJXUH 5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ6WHSV

&KDSWHU5HDOWLPH6LPXODWLRQVLQ+HDOWKFDUH5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ6WHSV2YHUYLHZ 
&HUWDLQ VWHSVVKRXOGEH IROORZHGIRUSURWRW\SLQJDUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQRISURFHVVHV ,I
WKHUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQPRGHOLVEHLQJFUHDWHGIRUWKHILUVWWLPHWKHVWHSVLOOXVWUDWHGLQ
)LJXUHVKRXOGEHIROORZHG$IWHUWKHPRGHOLVFUHDWHGDQGKDVUXQRQFHWKHUHLVQRQHHG
WRUHSHDWDOORIWKHVWHSVDJDLQDQGRQO\VRPHRIWKHVWHSVPHQWLRQHGLQ)LJXUHVKRXOG
EHIROORZHG)LJXUHVKRZVWKHVHVWHSVDVDQLWHUDWLYHF\FOH

Data
Input

Data Running Base


Collection Case & What-
if Scenarios

Taking Actions Output


Analysis

Making
Decisions


)LJXUH 5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ&\FOH

1RWH WKDW WKH VWHSV LQ WKLV FKDSWHU IRFXV RQ UHDOWLPH VLPXODWLRQV LQ KHDOWKFDUH EXW DUH
GHILQHGLQGHSHQGHQWO\IURPSURFHVVPRGHOLQJDQGVLPXODWLRQWHFKQRORJLHV HJ%301
DQG$UHQD 

 6WHSVRI3KDVH0RGHO&UHDWLRQ
7KHILUVWSKDVHLVFRPSRVHGRIVHYHQJHQHUDOVWHSV

 'HILQLQJWKH3UREOHP

6LPXODWLRQLVDWHFKQLTXHXVHGIRUVROYLQJSUREOHPVE\HPXODWLQJUHDOZRUOGH[SHULHQFHV
DQG SURSRVLQJ VXEVHTXHQW DFWLRQV DIWHU SUHGLFWLRQ RI SUREDEOH IXWXUH RXWFRPHV 7KHUH

&KDSWHU5HDOWLPH6LPXODWLRQVLQ+HDOWKFDUH6WHSVRI3KDVH0RGHO&UHDWLRQ 


IRUH DW WKH LQLWLDO VWDJH WKH REMHFWLYHV VKRXOG EH VSHFLILHG DQG WKH SUREOHP VKRXOG EH
FODULILHG DORQJZLWK LWV VFRSH 7KLV VWHSVKRXOGEHGRQH FDUHIXOO\LQ RUGHUWR EH DEOHWR
IRUPXODWHWKHVWDWHPHQWRIWKHSUREOHPSURSHUO\1RWDOOW\SHVRISUREOHPVFDQEHVROYHG
WKURXJKDVLPXODWLRQDSSURDFK
4XHXLQJ PDQDJHPHQW LV RQH ILHOG RI NQRZOHGJH IRU ZKLFK WKH VLPXODWLRQ DS
SURDFKVHHPWREHXVDEOHDQGFRQYHQLHQW4XHXHVDUHGHILQHGDVDOLQHXSRIHQWLWLHVZDLW
LQJLQRUGHUWRJHWDFHUWDLQVHUYLFH4XHXLQJV\VWHPVDUHWKHW\SHRIV\VWHPVWKDWIROORZ
TXHXLQJ GLVFLSOLQHV &RQFHSWV OLNH HQWLW\ DUULYDOV VHUYLFH WLPH DQG VHUYHU FDSDFLW\ DUH
GHILQDEOHLQWKHVHV\VWHPV7KHFRPPRQSUREOHPIDFHGLQTXHXLQJV\VWHPVDVWKHQDPH
LQGLFDWHVLVWKHH[LVWHQFHRIWKHTXHXHV ZKLFKLVDFRQVLGHUDEOHIDFWRUIURPDEXVLQHVV
SRLQWRIYLHZ4XHXHVH[LVWEHFDXVHRIWKHJURZWKLQWKHGHPDQGWKDWVKRXOGEHUHVSRQG
HG ZLWK D OLPLWHG DYDLODEOH VXSSO\ 7KH OHQJWK RI TXHXHV DQG WKH WLPH WKDW WKH HQWLWLHV
VSHQGLQWKHTXHXHVDUHFRXQWHGDVEXVLQHVVSHUIRUPDQFHFULWHULD'LVFUHWHHYHQWVLPXOD
WLRQ LV RQH VLPXODWLRQ PHWKRGRORJ\ WR PRGHO TXHXLQJ V\VWHPV WKDW FDQ KHOS UHDVRQLQJ
DERXW WKH FDXVH RI ZDLWLQJ WLPHV DQG ILQG DOWHUQDWLYH DFWLRQV WKDW FDQ KHOS UHGXFH VXFK
YDOXHV

 &UHDWLQJD&RQFHSWXDO0RGHO

2IWHQV\VWHPVDQGWKHLUEHKDYLRXUDUHYHU\FRPSOH[DQGDQDSSURSULDWHOHYHORIDEVWUDF
WLRQVKRXOGEHXVHGIRUDVXIILFLHQWO\GHWDLOHGPRGHOUHSUHVHQWDWLRQWKDWFDQDGGUHVVWKH
LGHQWLILHGSUREOHPV$PDMRUUHTXLUHPHQWIRUGHYHORSLQJDQDFFXUDWHVLPXODWLRQPRGHOLV
WREHDEOHWRORRNDWWKHDFWXDOV\VWHPIURPWKHULJKWSHUVSHFWLYH$JRRGXQGHUVWDQGLQJ
RIWKHV\VWHPXQGHUREVHUYDWLRQFDQKHOSUHGXFHDPELJXLW\,IDV\VWHPLVDERXWWREHRE
VHUYHG IRU IXUWKHU DQDO\VLV WKH EHKDYLRXU RI WKH V\VWHP VKRXOG EH PRQLWRUHG DQG FDS
WXUHG $ FRQFHSWXDO PRGHO LV XVHG DV D SULRU VWHS EHIRUH FUHDWLQJ VLPXODWLRQ PRGHOV ,W
VSHFLILHV WKH SUHFLVH GHVFULSWLRQV RI WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ UHTXLUHG IRU EXLOGLQJ WKH PRGHO DV
ZHOODVDQH[SODQDWLRQRIWKHVWUXFWXUHDQGEHKDYLRXURIWKHV\VWHPXQGHUREVHUYDWLRQ
$FRQFHSWXDOPRGHOFDQEHFDSWXUHGZLWKDJUDSKSVHXGRFRGHDVWDWHPDFKLQH
RU HYHQ D PDWKHPDWLFDO IRUPXODWLRQ 'HSHQGLQJ RQ WKH GHSWK RI SUHFLVLRQ UHTXLUHG IRU
GHILQLQJ WKH V\VWHP GLIIHUHQW W\SHV RI FRQFHSWXDO PRGHOV FDQ EH XVHG &ODULI\LQJ WKH

&KDSWHU5HDOWLPH6LPXODWLRQVLQ+HDOWKFDUH6WHSVRI3KDVH0RGHO&UHDWLRQ 


VFRSH RI WKH ZRUN DQG GHILQLQJ WKH GHWDLOHG GHVFULSWLRQ RI WKH VWHSV WKDW VKRXOG EH IRO
ORZHGDUHHVVHQWLDOLQRUGHUWRFUHDWHDYDOLGVLPXODWLRQPRGHO

 &UHDWLQJD6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO

)RUGHYHORSLQJDVLPXODWLRQPRGHODOORIWKHV\VWHPFRPSRQHQWVZLWKLQWKHVFRSHRIWKH
GHILQHG SUREOHP FDSWXUHG E\ WKH FRQFHSWXDO PRGHO VKRXOG EH PRGHOHG 7KH FRQFHSWXDO
PRGHOVKRXOGEHWUDQVODWHGWRWKHVLPXODWLRQPRGHO7KHVWDWLVWLFDOLQSXWGDWDUHTXLUHGE\
WKHVLPXODWLRQPRGHOEXWWKDWLVQRWSUHVHQWLQWKHFRQFHSWXDOPRGHOKDVWREHLGHQWLILHG
VRWKDWLWFDQEHDFTXLUHGLQWKHGDWDFROOHFWLRQVWHS7KHVHTXHQFHRIWKHDFWLYLWLHVDQG
HYHQWV LQYROYHG ZLWKLQ WKH VFRSH RI WKH GHILQHG SUREOHP VKRXOG EH PRGHOHG ZLWK D UH
TXLUHG OHYHO RI DEVWUDFWLRQ ,I D VLPXODWLRQ WRRO LV EHLQJ XVHG IRU WKLV SXUSRVH WKH UHDO
WLPHLPSOHPHQWDWLRQ WKHLQLWLDOL]DWLRQRIWKHV\VWHPIURPDSUHGHILQHGVWDWH EHFRPHVD
QHFHVVLW\6RPHLQIRUPDWLRQQHHGHGIRUFRQVWUXFWLQJWKHVLPXODWLRQPRGHOPLJKWQRW EH
FDSWXUHGWKURXJKDFRQFHSWXDOPRGHOEXWFDQEHKDQGOHGWKURXJKGDWDFROOHFWLRQ

 'DWD&ROOHFWLRQ

$UHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQUHTXLUHVUHDOGDWDWREHFROOHFWHGIURPDGDWDEDVH7KLVGDWDEDVH
RUPXOWLSOHGDWDEDVHV VKRXOGLQFOXGHWKHKLVWRULFDOGDWDDVZHOODVWKHLQLWLDOVWDWHGDWD
x +LVWRULFDOGDWD 7KLVLVWKHDFFXPXODWHGGDWDUHODWHGWR WKHSUHYLRXVSHUIRU
PDQFH RI WKH KRVSLWDO  HYHQWV DQG DFWLYLWLHV 3DVW DFWLYLW\ WUHQGV FDQ EH H[
WHQGHG WR IXWXUH SHUIRUPDQFH RI WKH DFWLYLWLHV DQG KHQFH WKLV LQIRUPDWLRQ LV
RQHRIWKHVXEVWDQWLDOLQJUHGLHQWVRIDVLPXODWLRQPRGHO7KHVHUYLFHWLPHIRU
HQWLWLHVDWHDFKORFDWLRQWKHDUULYDORIWKHHQWLWLHVWRWKHV\VWHPDQGWKHGDWD
UHODWHG WR WKH DYDLODELOLW\ DQG FDSDFLW\ RI WKH UHVRXUFHV LQYROYHG LQ WKH IORZ
DUHSDUWRIWKHKLVWRULFDOGDWD
x ,QLWLDOVWDWHGDWD7KLVGDWDVKRXOGDOVREHIHGWRWKHVLPXODWLRQPRGHO$UH
DOWLPH VLPXODWLRQ VWDUWV IURP WKH UHDO VWDWH RI WKH RUJDQL]DWLRQKRVSLWDO DQG
QRWIURPDQHPSW\DQGLGOHVWDWH7KHUHIRUHWKHLQLWLDOVWDWHGDWDVKRXOGEH
ORDGHGLQWKHVLPXODWLRQPRGHOSULRUWRWKHVWDUWRIHYHU\UXQ7KLVUHTXLUHVWKH
LQLWLDOL]DWLRQ RI WKH VWDWH DQG FDSDFLW\ RI HDFK UHVRXUFH IRU D VLPXODWLRQ UXQ
DQGWKHSUHVHQWQXPEHURIHQWLWLHVZDLWLQJLQWKHTXHXHVIRUJHWWLQJVHUYHG

&KDSWHU5HDOWLPH6LPXODWLRQVLQ+HDOWKFDUH6WHSVRI3KDVH0RGHO&UHDWLRQ 



7KHLQMHFWLRQRIWKHKLVWRULFDOGDWDLVFRPPRQO\GRQHLQGLVFUHWHHYHQWVLPXODWLRQVWXGLHV
2QH GLVWLQFWLYH IHDWXUH RI UHDOWLPH VLPXODWLRQ LV WKH FROOHFWLRQ DQG LQMHFWLRQ RI LQLWLDO
VWDWHGDWDLQRUGHUWRE\SDVVWKHZDUPXSSHULRG

 'DWD,QSXW

7KHFROOHFWHGKLVWRULFDOGDWDVKRXOGEHSURFHVVHGDQGILWLQWRWKHPDWKHPDWLFDOGLVWULEX
WLRQWKDWEHVWGHVFULEHVWKHEHKDYLRXURIWKHDFWLYLWLHVDQGHYHQWVLQYROYHGLQWKHSURFHVV
7KHVHVWDWLVWLFDOGLVWULEXWLRQVZLOOEHJHQHUDWLQJUDQGRPGDWDGXULQJDWUXQWLPHKRZHYHU
WKLV GDWD ZLOO EH IROORZLQJ WKH GLVWULEXWLRQV FKDUDFWHULVWLFV 7KLV LQSXW GDWD VKRXOG EH
SURYLGHG WKURXJK DQ LQWHUIDFH RU DQ H[WHUQDO ILOH IHHGLQJ WKH VLPXODWLRQ PRGHO SULRU WR
HYHU\VLPXODWLRQUXQ
7KH GDWD LQSXW VKRXOG EH GRQH LQ D WLPHO\ EDVLV HJ HYHU\  KRXUV HYHU\ 
KRXUVRUHYHU\GD\GHSHQGLQJRQWKHQHHGVRIWKHRUJDQL]DWLRQ IRUHQDEOLQJWKHVKRUW
WHUPGHFLVLRQPDNLQJSURFHVVWREHFRQWLQXRXVDQGHIILFLHQW
7KHSUHFLVLRQRIWKHLQLWLDOVWDWHLQIRUPDWLRQLVRIVLJQLILFDQWLPSRUWDQFHVLQFHWKH
ZDUPXSSHULRGLVWREHDYRLGHGE\ORDGLQJWKHLQLWLDOVWDWHRIWKHVLPXODWLRQDWHDFKUXQ
7KH KLVWRULFDO GDWD UHODWHG WR WKH GXUDWLRQ RI WKH DFWLYLWLHV LV OHVV OLNHO\ WR FKDQJH LQ D
VKRUWSHULRGRIWLPH+RZHYHUWKHGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKHDUULYDOUDWHVKRXOGEHFDOFXODWHGDQG
IHGWRWKHPRGHODVRIWHQDVWKHLQLWLDOVWDWHRIWKHKRVSLWDO7KLVLVEHFDXVHRIWKHXQSUH
GLFWDEOHDQGUDQGRPQDWXUHRIWKHSDWLHQWDUULYDOVLQ('GXULQJGLIIHUHQWGD\VRIWKHZHHN
DQGKRXUVRIWKHGD\

 6LPXODWLRQ6HWXS

7KHVHWXSIRUWKHVLPXODWLRQUXQVQHHGVWREHGRQHFDUHIXOO\VLQFHUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQV
WDUJHW QHDUIXWXUH SUHGLFWLRQV UDWKHU WKDQ ORQJWHUP SUHGLFWLRQV :H ILUVW H[SODLQ VRPH
GLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQ DVLPXODWLRQVHWXS IRUORQJWHUP SUHGLFWLRQDQGIRU VKRUWWHUP SUH
GLFWLRQ

:DUP8S3HULRGLQ/RQJ7HUP6LPXODWLRQV
$VGLVFXVVHGLQ6HFWLRQWKHZDUPXSSHULRGLVDWUDQVLHQWSHULRGDIWHUZKLFKWKHV\V
WHPUHDFKHVDVWHDG\VWDWHDQGWKHRXWSXWYDOXHVEHFRPHVWDWLRQDU\,IDVLPXODWLRQUXQV

&KDSWHU5HDOWLPH6LPXODWLRQVLQ+HDOWKFDUH6WHSVRI3KDVH0RGHO&UHDWLRQ 


IURPDQHPSW\DQGLGOHVWDWHDQGIRUDORQJHQRXJKSHULRGRIWLPHWKHQWKHVWHDG\VWDWH
VWDUWVIURPDQDXWRQRPRXVVWDWHRIWKHV\VWHP)LJXUHVKRZVWKHIRUPDWLRQRIWKHWUDQ
VLHQWVWDWHDQGWKHVWHDG\VWDWHRIDVLPXODWLRQUXQIRUDQRXWSXWYDULDEOH


)LJXUH :DUPXS3HULRGDQG6WHDG\6WDWH>@

7KHVWHDG\VWDWHRFFXUV EHFDXVHWKHV\VWHPZLOOUHDFK DQHTXLOLEULXP VWDWH DQGZLOOJHW


VWDELOL]HGDIWHUDZKLOHZKHQUHIOHFWLQJWKHIXWXUHVWDWHRIWKHV\VWHPEDVHGRQWKHKLVWRU
LFDOGDWD
,QPRVWRIWKHVWXGLHVIURPWKHOLWHUDWXUHUHYLHZWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRIVLPXODWLRQKDV
EHHQREVHUYHGIRUVWUDWHJLFGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ7KHXVHVRIVLPXODWLRQIRUORQJWHUPRUVWUD
WHJLFGHFLVLRQPDNLQJJHQHUDOO\UHTXLUHVWKDWQRQWHUPLQDWLQJV\VWHPVDOZD\VUHDFKWKHLU
VWHDG\VWDWHIRUREVHUYDWLRQVWREHFRPHUHOLDEOH,WLVWKHQDVVXPHGWKDWLQWKHORQJUXQ
WKHV\VWHPLVRQO\DIIHFWHGE\WKHVDPHQXPEHURIHOHPHQWVDVLVEHLQJDIIHFWHGFXUUHQWO\

:DUPXS3HULRGLQ6KRUW7HUP6LPXODWLRQV
7KH ZDUPXS SHULRG LV E\SDVVHG LQ D VKRUWWHUP VLPXODWLRQ SURFHVV LQ RUGHU WR SURYLGH
UHVXOWV TXLFNO\ 6LQFH WKH FXUUHQW LQIRUPDWLRQ RI WKH V\VWHP LV ORDGHG LQ WKH VLPXODWLRQ
PRGHOWKHVLPXODWLRQGRHVQRWVWDUWIURPDQHPSW\DQGLGOHVWDWHDQ\PRUHDQGWKHUHIRUH
WKHGDWDFROOHFWLRQWKDWRFFXUVHYHQDWWKHYHU\EHJLQQLQJRIWKHVLPXODWLRQUXQVLVUHOLD
EOH7KXVLQUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQIRUVKRUWWHUPSUHGLFWLRQVWKHUHLVOHVVFRPSOLFDWLRQVLQ
WHUPVRIGHILQLQJWKHZDUPXSSHULRGDQGDYRLGLQJLWZKLOHFROOHFWLQJWKHRXWSXWGDWD

&KDSWHU5HDOWLPH6LPXODWLRQVLQ+HDOWKFDUH6WHSVRI3KDVH0RGHO&UHDWLRQ 


5XQ/HQJWK6HWXS
7KHUXQOHQJWKDQGQXPEHURIUHSOLFDWLRQVLQDVLPXODWLRQPRGHOVKRXOGEHVHWLQDFFRUG
DQFHZLWKWKHREMHFWLYHRIWKHVWXG\,QWKLVVWXG\WKHREMHFWLYHLVWRHQDEOHUHOLDEOHVKRUW
WHUP GHFLVLRQPDNLQJSURFHVV XVLQJ UHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQ 7KH UXQOHQJWKLV WKHKRUL]RQ
IRUZKLFKZHZRXOGOLNHWREDVHRXUGHFLVLRQPDNLQJSURFHVV7KLVYDOXHLVHTXDOWRWKH
SHULRGRIWLPHLQDQHDUIXWXUHWKDWZHZRXOGOLNHWRSUHGLFWIRUUHSHDWHGO\)RUDUHDO
WLPHVLPXODWLRQWREHHIIHFWLYHWKLVOHQJWKVKRXOGQHLWKHUEHYHU\VPDOO WRJHWVXIILFLHQW
DFFXUDF\DQGFRQILGHQFHLQWKHUHVXOWV QRUYHU\ODUJH DVZHZDQWUHDOWLPHVKRUWWHUP
SUHGLFWLRQV )RULQVWDQFHLILQ DSURFHVV DOO RIWKHDFWLYLWLHVWDNHDW OHDVW KRXUVWRDF
FRPSOLVKUXQQLQJWKHVLPXODWLRQIRUKRXUDKHDGRIWLPHZLOOQRWSURYLGHXVZLWKXVHIXO
UHVXOWV$OVRDVTXLFNDVWKHSURFHVVRIVHWWLQJXSDQGUXQQLQJWKHDOWHUQDWLYHVFHQDULRV
PLJKWEHLWVWLOOWDNHVVRPHWLPHDQGWKLVWLPHVKRXOGDOZD\VEHDYHU\VPDOOSURSRUWLRQ
RIWKHWLPHKRUL]RQIRUZKLFKZHDUHGRLQJWKHVKRUWWHUPSUHGLFWLRQV
7KHWHUPLQRORJ\WKDWKDVEHHQXVHGDERYHDVQRWWRRODUJHDQGQRWWRRVPDOO
FDQQRW EH TXDQWLILHG WR VSHFLILF YDOXHV WKDW DUH FRQWH[W LQGHSHQGHQW 7KH UHDVRQ LV EH
FDXVHWKHFKRVHQOHQJWK RIUXQLV WRWDOO\GHSHQGHQW XSRQWKHQDWXUHRIWKHDFWLYLWLHVLQ
YROYHGLQWKHV\VWHPDQGWKLVYDOXHGLIIHUVIURPV\VWHPWRV\VWHP,IWKHEHKDYLRXURIWKH
V\VWHPLVREVHUYHGWKHDSSURSULDWHYDOXHIRUUXQOHQJWKFDQHDVLO\EHFKRVHQIRUWKHVLP
XODWLRQUXQV

5HSOLFDWLRQ6HWXS
$IWHUWKHUXQOHQJWKLVVHWWKHUHSOLFDWLRQQXPEHUVKRXOGDOVREHGHFLGHG1RUPDOO\ERWK
WKHUXQOHQJWKDQGWKHQXPEHURIUHSOLFDWLRQVDUHWKHWZRGHWHUPLQHUVRIWKHSUHFLVLRQDQG
UHOLDELOLW\ RI WKH RXWSXW GDWD +RZHYHU VLQFH LQ UHDOWLPH VLPXODWLRQV WKH UXQ OHQJWK
VKRXOGEHFKRVHQDVDQRQFKDQJLQJTXDQWLW\LQDJLYHQFRQWH[WWKHQWKHRQO\IDFWRUWKDW
GHWHUPLQHVWKHSUHFLVLRQRIWKHRXWSXWGDWDLVWKHQXPEHURIUHSOLFDWLRQV7KHUHLVQRVSH
FLILF SUHFLVLRQ WKDW LV FRPPRQ RU W\SLFDO DORQJ WKH VDPSOLQJ SURFHVV 'HWHUPLQLQJ WKH
SUHFLVLRQ UHTXLUHG IRU WKH RXWSXW UHVXOWV RI VLPXODWLRQ LV PRUH RU OHVV WKH FKRLFH RI WKH
GHFLVLRQPDNHUZKLOHFRQVLGHULQJWKHWLPHFRQVWUDLQWIRUUXQQLQJWKHVLPXODWLRQ PRGHO
7KXVHYHQWKRXJKDKLJKHUQXPEHURIUHSOLFDWLRQVZRXOGUHVXOWLQDPXFKEHWWHUHVWLPD
WLRQRIWKHDFWXDORXWSXWUHVXOWVWKHWLPHUHTXLUHGIRUUXQQLQJWKHVLPXODWLRQVVKRXOGQRW
EH LJQRUHG DQG LQ IDFW VKRXOG EH DQDO\]HG 7KH GHFLVLRQ PDNHU VKRXOG FRPH XS ZLWK D

&KDSWHU5HDOWLPH6LPXODWLRQVLQ+HDOWKFDUH6WHSVRI3KDVH0RGHO&UHDWLRQ 


FHUWDLQ SUHFLVLRQ WKDW LV ERWK DIIRUGDEOH DQG XVHDEOH IRU SURYLGLQJ VROXWLRQV IRU WKH GH
ILQHGSUREOHPSUHVHQWHGE\DVLPXODWLRQPRGHO7KHSUHFLVLRQRIWKHRXWSXWGDWDFDQEH
PDQDJHGWKURXJKWKHVWDWLVWLFDOWHVWVPHQWLRQHGLQ6HFWLRQ

 0RGHO9DOLGDWLRQDQG9HULILFDWLRQ

0RGHOYHULILFDWLRQLVPHDQWWRHQVXUHWKDWWKHPRGHOLVEHKDYLQJDVLQWHQGHG)RUYHULIL
FDWLRQ RQHFDQFKDQJHWKHSDUDPHWHUVLQVLGHWKHPRGHODQGFKHFNLIWKHRXWSXWV DUHDV
H[SHFWHGRUQRW9HULILFDWLRQDVLPSRUWDQWDVLWLVLVQRWVXIILFLHQWIRUH[SHFWLQJDFFXUDWH
RXWSXWUHVXOWV7KHPRGHOVKRXOGDOVREHYDOLGDWHGEHIRUHDQ\DFWXDOLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRF
FXUV9DOLGDWLRQLVWKHSURFHVVRIHQVXULQJWKDWWKHPRGHOVXIILFLHQWO\UHIOHFWVWKHUHDOV\V
WHPDQGWKDWWKHUHLVQRWDQ\FRQVLGHUDEOHGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQWKHPRGHODQGWKHUHDOLW\
7KLV SURFHVV FDQ EH GRQH WKURXJK FRQILUPDWLRQV ZLWK WKH H[SHUWV ZKR DUH GLUHFWO\ LQ
YROYHGZLWKWKHDFWLYLWLHVLQWKHUHDOOLIHSURFHVV

 6WHSVRI3KDVH0RGHO([HFXWLRQ
%\ IROORZLQJ WKH VWHSV RI 3KDVH  WKH FUHDWLRQ RI WKH PRGHO LV FRPSOHWHG 7KH VHFRQG
SKDVH RI WKH PHWKRGRORJ\ LV FRPSRVHG RI IRXU DGGLWLRQDO VWHSV WDUJHWLQJ H[HFXWLRQ DQG
DQDO\VLVRIWKHPRGHO

 5XQQLQJWKH%DVHFDVHDQG:KDWLI6FHQDULRV

7KHQH[WVWHSLVWRH[HFXWHVLPXODWLRQUXQVDQGDQDO\]HWKHUHVXOWV6LQFHWKHILQDOREMHF
WLYHRIWKHUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQLVWRSURSRVHDQHIIHFWLYHVROXWLRQWKDWFRXOGVROYHWKHGH
ILQHG SUREOHP WKHUH VKRXOG H[LVW VRPH SHUIRUPDQFH FULWHULD DJDLQVW ZKLFK ZH ZLOO EH
HYDOXDWLQJ WKH IXWXUH VWDWH RI WKH V\VWHP WKURXJK HDFK ZKDWLI VFHQDULR UXQ 7KHUHIRUH
ILUVWO\ WKH SHUIRUPDQFH PHWULFV VKRXOG EH GHILQHG 3HUIRUPDQFH PHWULFV DOORZ XV WR
PHDVXUHWKH HIIHFWLYHQHVV RIWKHVXJJHVWHGVROXWLRQVYLDTXDQWLILDEOHYDOXHV ,QPRVWRI
WKHV\VWHPVWKHUHLVPRUHWKDQRQHPHWULFVWKDWVKRXOGEHFRQVLGHUHG$WOHDVWRQHRIWKH
SHUIRUPDQFHPHWULFVVKRXOGGLUHFWO\EHLQUHODWLRQZLWKWKHSUREOHPGHILQLWLRQ
7KHILUVWVFHQDULRLVNQRZQDVWKHEDVHFDVHVFHQDULRZKLFKJLYHVDYLHZRIWKH
VWDWHRIWKHV\VWHPLQDQHDUIXWXUHLILWNHHSVSHUIRUPLQJWKHVDPHZD\DVLWZDVQRUPDOO\

&KDSWHU5HDOWLPH6LPXODWLRQVLQ+HDOWKFDUH6WHSVRI3KDVH0RGHO([HFXWLRQ 


SODQQHG WR 7KH ZKDWLI VFHQDULRV DV WKH QDPH LQGLFDWHV DUH DOWHUQDWLYH VFHQDULRV WKDW
VKRZWKHSUHGLFWHGVWDWHRIWKHV\VWHPLIDWWKHSUHVHQWWLPHVRPHHIIHFWLQJSDUDPHWHUVDUH
FKDQJHG 7KHVH VFHQDULRV VKRZ WKH GLIIHUHQW FRQILJXUDWLRQV WKURXJK WKH IORZ WKDW PD\
DIIHFWWKHYDOXHVRIWKHPHDVXUDEOHFULWHULD

 2XWSXW$QDO\VLV

$ VLPXODWLRQ PRGHO FROOHFWV WKH WUDFNLQJ LQIRUPDWLRQ RI DOO RI WKH HYHQWV DQG DFWLYLWLHV
WKDWWDNHSODFHZKLOHDVLPXODWLRQLVUXQQLQJ$Q\W\SHRIVWDWLVWLFVUHODWHGWRWKHSHUIRU
PDQFHRIWKHV\VWHPFDQEHJHQHUDWHGIRUDSUHFLVHDQDO\VLV+RZHYHUWKHPDMRUSDUDPH
WHUVWRIRFXVRQDUHWKHSHUIRUPDQFHPHWULFVVHWSUHYLRXVO\8VXDOO\WKHRXWSXWUHVSRQVHV
WR D VSHFLILF FKDQJH LQ WKH SDUDPHWHUV ZRXOG QRW EH LQ WKH VDPH GLUHFWLRQ EHWWHU RU
ZRUVH IRUDOOWKHRXWSXWV:LWKLQDFKDQJHWKHYDOXHRIDSHUIRUPDQFHPHWULFPLJKWEH
FRPHPXFKPRUHGHVLUDEOHZKLOHDWWKHVDPHWLPHFDXVLQJWKHYDOXHRIDQRWKHUPHWULFWR
EHFRPHYHU\XQGHVLUDEOH7KHWUDGHRIIVEHWZHHQDOOWKHPHWULFVVKRXOGEHDQDO\]HGDVDQ
LQLWLDOVWHSIRUGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ

 0DNLQJ'HFLVLRQV

$IWHU DQDO\]LQJ WKH RXWSXWV JHQHUDWHG IURP HDFK VFHQDULR ZH VKRXOG ORRN IRU WKH EHVW
VFHQDULRLQWHUPVRIWKHPHDVXUDEOHFULWHULDVHWIRUWKHFRPSDULVRQDPRQJGLIIHUHQWDOWHU
QDWLYHVFHQDULRV'HFLVLRQPDNHUVVKRXOGIROORZDQDSSURDFKIRUGHFLGLQJRQWKHEHVWLP
SOHPHQWDWLRQVFHQDULR
2QHDOJRULWKPWKDWLVXVHGWRILQGWKHEHVWDOWHUQDWLYHDPRQJDVHWRIDOWHUQDWLYHV
LVWRXVHSDLUZLVHFRPSDULVRQV,QWKLVDSSURDFKDQDOWHUQDWLYHZLOOEHFRPSDUHGWRDQ
RWKHUDOWHUQDWLYHE\WKHPHDVXUDEOHFULWHULDVHWSUHYLRXVO\DQGWKHEHWWHUDOWHUQDWLYHZLOO
EHNHSW7KLV SURFHVV VKRXOG FRQWLQXHXQWLOWKHUH LVRQO\RQHVFHQDULROHIWZKLFKLVEH
OLHYHGWREHWKHEHVWDOWHUQDWLYHDPRQJDOOWKHDOWHUQDWLYHVFRQVLGHUHG0RVWRIWKHWLPHV
LQDPXOWLFULWHULDGHFLVLRQPDNLQJDSSURDFKLWLVQRWSRVVLEOHWRKDYHDOOWKHIHDVLEOHDO
WHUQDWLYHVHYDOXDWHGWRILQGWKHEHVWVROXWLRQDPRQJWKRVH7KHUHIRUHWKHGHFLVLRQPDNHU
ZLOOEHVXUURXQGHGZLWKDFRXQWDEOH DQGOLNHO\VPDOO QXPEHURIRSWLRQVWRFKRRVHIURP
,QWKLVDSSURDFKHYHQWKRXJKWKHFULWHULDDUHVHWSUHYLRXVO\DQGWKHPRVWGHVLUDEOH
YDOXHVZRXOGEHH[WUHPHPLQLPXPVRUPD[LPXPVWKHUHZLOOPRVWO\EHWUDGHRIIVDPRQJ

&KDSWHU5HDOWLPH6LPXODWLRQVLQ+HDOWKFDUH6WHSVRI3KDVH0RGHO([HFXWLRQ 


WKHFULWHULD7KHGHFLVLRQPDNHUVKRXOGFRQVLGHUWKHYDULDELOLW\DPRQJWKHGLIIHUHQWFULWH
ULDDQGSLFNWKHRQHWKDWZRXOGUHVXOWLQWKHPRVWUHDVRQDEOHDQGSRVVLEOHRXWFRPHV

 7DNLQJ$FWLRQV

$V WKH UHDOWLPH VLPXODWLRQ UXQV RFFXU LQ D WLPHO\ ZD\ WKH RXWSXW RI HYHU\ VFHQDULR LV
DQDO\]HGDQGWKHEHVWGHFLVLRQLVPDGH6RPHWLPHVWKHEHVWGHFLVLRQ PD\EHWRWDNHQR
DFWLRQDQGVWD\ZLWKWKHEDVHFDVHVFHQDULR VWDWXVTXR UDWKHUWKDQIROORZLQJRQHRIWKH
ZKDWLIVFHQDULRV2WKHUZLVHDSSURSULDWHDFWLRQVVKRXOGEHWDNHQDFFRUGLQJWRWKHSUHYL
RXVVWHSUHVXOWV

 6XPPDU\
7KHPHWKRGRORJ\LVPHDQWWREHXVHGLQDFORVHGORRSIDVKLRQPHDQLQJWKDWWKHVLPXOD
WLRQGDWDZLOOEHXSGDWHGZLWKUHDOWLPHGDWDRIWKHKRVSLWDOVRWKHGHFLVLRQPDNHUFDQUXQ
VLPXODWLRQVWRSUHGLFWWKHRXWFRPHVWDWHRIWKHSURFHVVLQDQHDUIXWXUH HJRUKRXUV
DKHDG  $OWKRXJK FHUWDLQ VWHSV DUH VXJJHVWHG WR EH IROORZHG IRU XVLQJ VLPXODWLRQV DQG
VROYLQJDSUREOHPLWLVSRVVLEOHWKDWVRPHQHZSUHYLRXVO\KLGGHQDVSHFWVRIWKHV\VWHP
XQGHUREVHUYDWLRQPLJKWEHFRPHYLVLEOH,QWKLVFDVHWKHEDFNZDUGDUURZVVKRZQLQ)LJ
XUHZLOOEHXVHGDQGFKDQJHVVKRXOGEHDSSOLHGWRWKHSUHYLRXVVWHSVWREHDEOHWRPRYH
IRUZDUGWRWKHQH[WVWHSVDJDLQ+HDOWKFDUHSURFHVVHVDUHPXFKPRUHFRPSOH[WKDQSUR
FHVVHV ZKHUH WKH DFWLYLWLHV DUH DXWRPDWHG DQG SUHGLFWDEOH &RPSOHWLQJ WKH DERYH VWHSV
FDQKHOSHQVXUHDUHSUHVHQWDWLRQRIDFRQVLVWHQWDQGDFFXUDWHPRGHO WKDW VXIILFLHQWO\UH
IOHFWV WKH DFWXDO V\VWHP ZKLOH HQDEOLQJ UHDOWLPH VLPXODWLRQ FDSDELOLWLHV 7KH ILUVW WKUHH
VWHSVVKRXOGEHGRQHFDUHIXOO\DQGSUHFLVHO\VLQFHWKHVHVWHSVZLOOEHGRQHRQFHLQDORQJ
SHULRGRIWLPHDIWHUZDUGVRQO\WKHLQMHFWLRQRIWKHGDWDDQGDQDO\VLVZLOOEHUHSHWLWLYHO\
RFFXUULQJ
7KHQH[WWZRFKDSWHUVIRFXVRQWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRIHDFKRIWKHWZRSKDVHVRIWKH
PHWKRGRORJ\WRDYDOLGDWLRQH[SHULPHQWRQDUHDOKRVSLWDOSURFHVV

&KDSWHU5HDOWLPH6LPXODWLRQVLQ+HDOWKFDUH6XPPDU\ 


&KDSWHU &UHDWLRQRID5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ
0RGHO

7KLV FKDSWHU LQVWDQWLDWHV DQG YDOLGDWHV WKH ILUVW SKDVH RI RXU PHWKRGRORJ\ RQ D FDUGLDF
SDWLHQWIORZDWDFRPPXQLW\KRVSLWDOLQ2QWDULR$UHQDLVXVHGIRUWKHVLPXODWLRQ

 6HOHFWHG&DUH3URFHVV
:LOOLDP 2VOHU +HDOWK&HQWHU RU2VOHU KRVSLWDO IRUVKRUW  ORFDWHGLQ 2QWDULR LV RQHRI
WKHODUJHVWKLJKYROXPHFRPPXQLW\KRVSLWDOVDFURVV&DQDGD7KHKRVSLWDOFXUUHQWO\SUR
YLGHVEHGVZLWKHPSOR\HHV7KHDYHUDJHDQQXDOQXPEHURISHRSOHYLVLWLQJWKH
KRVSLWDOIRUFDUHVHUYLFHVLVDERXW$OPRVWRIWKHSHRSOHZKRJHWDGPLWWHG
WRWKHKRVSLWDOZDUGVHQWHUIURPWKH('RIWKHKRVSLWDO2VOHUKRVSLWDOFXUUHQWO\KDVWZR
FDPSXVHV(WRELFRNH*HQHUDO+RVSLWDO (*+ DQG%UDPSWRQ&LYLF+RVSLWDO %&+ )LJ
XUHVKRZVWKHDQQXDO2VOHUUHSRUWRISDWLHQWOHQJWKRIVWD\LQ('DFFRUGLQJWRSDWLHQWV
VHYHULW\RIKHDOWKFRQGLWLRQLQ$VVHHQLQ)LJXUHIRUVRPHRIWKHPRQWKV
WKH SDWLHQW OHQJWK RI VWD\ LV KLJKHU WKDQ WKH SURYLQFLDO WDUJHW 3URYLQFLDO WDUJHWV DUH 
KRXUVIRUSDWLHQWVZLWKFRPSOH[KHDOWK FRQGLWLRQVDQGKRXUVIRUSDWLHQWVZLWKOHVVVH
YHUHKHDOWKFRQGLWLRQV 

&KDSWHU&UHDWLRQRID5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO6HOHFWHG&DUH3URFHVV 



)LJXUH /HQJWKRI6WD\LQ2VOHU+RVSLWDO>@

7DEOHVKRZVDPRUHUHFHQWUHSRUWRQSDWLHQWVOHQJWKRIVWD\LQHPHUJHQF\GHSDUWPHQW
RI2VOHUKRVSLWDO

7DEOH /HQJWKRI6WD\LQWKH(PHUJHQF\'HSDUWPHQWRI2VOHUV%UDPSWRQ&LYLF6LWH
0DUFK >@


7KLV FDVH VWXG\ FRYHUV WKH LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI D VLPXODWLRQEDVHG VKRUWWHUP GHFLVLRQ
PDNLQJSURFHVVIRUWKHFDUGLDFSDWLHQWIORZRI2VOHUKRVSLWDO7KHHQWLUHFOLQLFDOSURFHVV
IRUFDUGLDFSDWLHQWVRIWKHKRVSLWDOZDVFKRVHQIRUWKLVVWXG\7KHKHDOWKFDUHSURFHVVVH
OHFWHG LQYROYHV VHYHUDO XQLWV LQFOXGLQJ WKH HPHUJHQF\ GHSDUWPHQW ('  WKH FDUGLRORJ\
ZDUG &: WKHFDUGLDF FDWKHWHUL]DWLRQODERUDWRU\ &&/ DQG WKHWHVWODERUDWRULHV 7/ 
7KHUHDUHW\SHVRIFDUGLDFSDWLHQWVZLWKGLIIHUHQW&7$6OHYHOVWKDWDUHGHDOWZLWKLQWKH

&KDSWHU&UHDWLRQRID5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO6HOHFWHG&DUH3URFHVV 
FDUGLDF SDWLHQW IORZ 7KHUHIRUH WKH SDWLHQWV ZLOO UHFHLYH FOLQLFDO VHUYLFHV EDVHG RQ WKH
VHYHULW\RIWKHLUKHDOWKFRQGLWLRQ
)LJXUHKLJKOLJKWVWKHFDUGLDFSDWLHQWIORZRIWKLVFDVHVWXG\7KHSK\VLFDORSHUD
WLRQRIWKHSDWLHQWSDWKZD\VWDUWVZLWKSDWLHQWDUULYDOWRWKH('DQGFRQWLQXHVZLWKWULDJH
WKHQDSK\VLFLDQFRQVXOWVZLWKWKHSDWLHQWDQGRUGHUVWHVWVIURP7/7/SURYLGHVWHVWUH
VXOWVDQGWKHQWKHSK\VLFLDQGRHVDVHFRQGFRQVXOWDWLRQ,IWKHSDWLHQWLVRIDKLJKDFXWH
OHYHO DQG PXVWEHKRVSLWDOL]HGIRUIXUWKHUFDUHSURFHVVHVKHVKH ZLOO EH PRYHGWR &:
WKHQXQGHUJRHVVXUJHU\LQ&&/DQGILQDOO\UHWXUQVWR&:XQWLOKHVKHLVGLVFKDUJHG9DU
LRXVGHOD\VFDQRFFXUDQGKHQFHLQIOXHQFHGLIIHUHQWZDLWWLPHV6HYHUDODOWHUQDWLYHVDQG
SRWHQWLDOFRQFXUUHQF\DUHDOVRFRQVLGHUHGDORQJWKHZD\:HDUHWDNLQJWKLVVSHFLILFSD
WLHQWSDWKZD\IRURXUVWXG\7KHUHH[LVWVRPHRWKHUVWHSVWKDWPLJKWEHIROORZHGIRUVRPH
VSHFLDOFDUGLDFSDWLHQWVKRZHYHUZHGRQRWIRFXVRQWKHPLQWKLVUHVHDUFK


Test Labratories Consultation


Cardiac
Catheterization Lab

Cardialogy Ward

Triage

Admission

Discharge
ED

)LJXUH &DUGLDF3DWLHQW)ORZLQ2VOHU+RVSLWDO

1RWHWKDWWKLVVLPXODWLRQLV SDUWRIDODUJHUSURMHFW WKDWUHOLHVRQEXVLQHVVSURFHVV PDQ


DJHPHQW DQG UHDOWLPH ORFDWLRQ RI VWDII DQG HTXLSPHQW WR HQDEOH UHDOWLPH SDWLHQW IORZ
PRQLWRULQJDQGDQDO\WLFV )LJXUH 

&KDSWHU&UHDWLRQRID5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO6HOHFWHG&DUH3URFHVV 
Web Portal /
Decision Support System

Historical Performance Patient Flow Monitoring (PFM)


Simulator RTLS Map
Reporting Real-Time Analytics
(Arena) (Ekahau)
(IBM Cognos BI) (Internal)

Business Process Management Messaging + HL7 support Complex Event Processing


(IBM Websphere BPM / Lombardi) (IBM Message Broker) (IBM Business Events)

Real-Time Location System


Hospital Information Systems
(Ekahau)
Meditech, PulseCheck,
MegaCare, Lab IS, Carillon IS

Tags/Badges

)LJXUH 8VHRI6LPXODWLRQLQWKH/DUJHU2VOHU3URMHFW

7KH$UHQDEDVHGVLPXODWLRQ KLJKOLJKWHGLQWKHILJXUH WDNHVDGYDQWDJHRIWKLVLQIUDVWUXF


WXUH WR H[WUDFW WKH LQLWLDO VWDWH RI WKH VLPXODWLRQ ZLWK KLJK DFFXUDF\ 7KH UHVXOWV RI WKH
VLPXODWLRQDUHHYHQWXDOO\H[SHFWHGWREHXVHGLQDODUJHUGHFLVLRQVXSSRUWV\VWHPFXUUHQW
O\EHLQJGHVLJQHGE\D3K'VWXGHQWLQKLVWKHVLV
7KHUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQPHWKRGRORJ\VWHSVGLVFXVVHGLQ&KDSWHUDUHIROORZHG
LQWKLVFDVHVWXG\7KHFUHDWLRQSKDVHLVGLVFXVVHGLQWKLVFKDSWHUDQGWKHH[HFXWLRQSKDVH
LVFRYHUHGLQ&KDSWHU

 'HILQHWKH3UREOHP
7KH FDUGLDF SDWLHQWV RI 2VOHU KRVSLWDO DUH FXUUHQWO\ H[SHULHQFLQJ KLJK ZDLWLQJ WLPHV
:DLWLQJWLPHFDQEHFDXVHGE\VHYHUDOUHDVRQVDQGWKHUHPLJKWQRWEHDFRPSOHWHVROXWLRQ
DYDLODEOHWRHOLPLQDWHLW+RZHYHULWLVEHOLHYHGWKDWDUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQFDQKHOSUH
GXFHWKHSDWLHQWZDLWLQJWLPHE\SURYLGLQJWKHGHFLVLRQPDNHUVZLWKIHHGEDFNRQWKHHI
IHFWLYHQHVVRIVKRUWWHUPGHFLVLRQDOWHUQDWLYHVEDVHGRQDGMXVWPHQWVLQUHVRXUFHVFKHGXO
LQJ 7KXV D VLPXODWLRQ PRGHO LV FUHDWHG IRU DQDO\]LQJ WKH PHQWLRQHG SUREOHP ZLWK WKH
VFRSHRIWKHPRVWFRPPRQFDUGLDFSDWLHQWSDWKZD\DWWKHKRVSLWDO&RQVHTXHQWO\DWWKH

&KDSWHU&UHDWLRQRID5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO'HILQHWKH3UREOHP 


LQLWLDOVWHSLWLVH[SHFWHGIURPWKHVLPXODWLRQPRGHOWREHDEOHWRSURYLGHWKHIROORZLQJ
LQIRUPDWLRQUHJDUGLQJWKHGHILQHGSUREOHP
x 7KHWRWDOZDLWLQJWLPHRISDWLHQWVIRUDOODFWLYLWLHVLQWKHQHDUIXWXUH
x &RQVHTXHQFHV RI SRVVLEOH UHVRXUFH VFKHGXOLQJ DGMXVWPHQWV RQ SDWLHQW WRWDO
ZDLWLQJWLPHLQWKHQHDUIXWXUH

 &RQVWUXFWLQJD&RQFHSWXDO0RGHO
$ FRQFHSWXDO PRGHO KDV EHHQ SDUWLDOO\ GHILQHG SULRU WR WKH FUHDWLRQ RI WKH VLPXODWLRQ
PRGHO,QWKLVUHVHDUFKSURMHFWWKHFDUGLDFSDWLHQWFDUHSURFHVVRI2VOHUKRVSLWDOKDVEHHQ
SUHYLRXVO\PRGHOHGLQ%301 VHHDQH[WUDFWLQ)LJXUH XVLQJDFRPPHUFLDOEXVLQHVV
SURFHVVPRGHOLQJWRROQDPHO\,%0%XVLQHVV3URFHVV0DQDJHU %30 >@7KLVPRGHOLV
LWVHOIEDVHGRQDFDUHIORZPRGHOHGPRUHLQIRUPDOO\E\VHQLRUQXUVHVDWWKHKRVSLWDO7KLV
IORZZDVGHILQHGWRFDSWXUHWKHHQJDJHPHQWRIWKHSK\VLFDOFOLQLFDOSURFHVVHVZLWKDUHDO
WLPH SDWLHQW IORZ PRQLWRULQJ V\VWHP>@ 7KXV WKLV H[HFXWDEOH EXVLQHVV SURFHVV PRGHO
UHIOHFWV WKH LQWHUDFWLRQV DPRQJ GLIIHUHQW DFWRUV ZLWK D SUHFLVH FRQVLGHUDWLRQ IRU WKH VH
TXHQFHRIDFWLYLWLHVWKDWWDNHSODFHLQWKHIORZSURFHVVIURPWKHSDWLHQWVSHUVSHFWLYH

)LJXUH 2YHUYLHZRI%3010RGHORI&DUGLDF&DUH3URFHVV

&KDSWHU&UHDWLRQRID5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO&RQVWUXFWLQJD&RQFHSWXDO0RGHO 
:LWKWKHEXVLQHVVSURFHVVPRGHODQGWKHVLPXODWLRQPRGHOIROORZLQJVHSDUDWHREMHFWLYHV
IRUUHIOHFWLQJWKHUHDOLW\DOORIWKHLQIRUPDWLRQFDSWXUHGLQRQHLVGHILQLWHO\QRWUHIOHFWHG
LQWKHRWKHU7KHUHLVVSHFLILFLQIRUPDWLRQRILQWHUHVWIRUFUHDWLQJDVLPXODWLRQPRGHOWKDW
LV FDSWXUHG LQ D EXVLQHVV SURFHVV %3  PRGHO +RZHYHU WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ UHSUHVHQWHG LQ
WKHEXVLQHVVSURFHVVPLJKWQRWEHVXIILFLHQWIRUFUHDWLQJDFRPSOHWHVLPXODWLRQPRGHO


Business Process
Model

Simplification
1- Remove Data
Structure,
implementation Elements
2- Remove System Pool
3- Remove messages
4- Flatten

Intermediate Model
Conversion

1- Statistical Data
2- Resource Information Mapping Guidelines
3- Probabilities
4-Additional Modules

Simulation Model


)LJXUH *XLGHOLQHVIRU0DSSLQJD%XVLQHVV3URFHVV0RGHOWRD6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO

$PDSSLQJDSSURDFKIRUFUHDWLQJDQLQWHUPHGLDWHPRGHOLVXVHGIRUWKLVFDVHVWXG\:H
KDYHUHPRYHGWKHXQQHFHVVDU\LQIRUPDWLRQWKDWD%3PRGHOSUHVHQWVGXHWRLWVRZQVSH

&KDSWHU&UHDWLRQRID5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO&RQVWUXFWLQJD&RQFHSWXDO0RGHO 


FLILFREMHFWLYHVWRFUHDWHDQLQWHUPHGLDWHPRGHOWKDWHVVHQWLDOO\FDSWXUHVWKHFRQFHSWXDO
PRGHO$IWHUZDUGVZHKDYHDGGHGWKHLQIRUPDWLRQQRWLQLWLDOO\FDSWXUHGLQWKH%3PRGHO
WKDWVKRXOGEHUHIOHFWHGLQ DVLPXODWLRQ PRGHO )LJXUH VKRZVWKH FRPSOHWHDSSURDFK
WKDWZDVWDNHQWR FUHDWH DVLPXODWLRQ PRGHOIURP D%3PRGHOSDUWLDOO\UHSUHVHQWLQJWKH
FRQFHSWXDO PRGHO 7KH PDSSLQJ DSSURDFK LV VXSSRUWHG E\ VLPSOLILFDWLRQ JXLGHOLQHV WR
SURGXFHWKHLQWHUPHGLDWHFRQFHSWXDOPRGHO DQGE\PDSSLQJJXLGHOLQHV

 ,QWHUPHGLDWH0RGHO

$QLQWHUPHGLDWHPRGHOKDVEHHQFUHDWHGWKDWLVDVLPSOLILHGYHUVLRQRIWKHEXVLQHVVSUR
FHVVPRGHO7KLVLQWHUPHGLDWHPRGHOLVPDGHXSRIEXVLQHVVSURFHVVPRGHOLQJHOHPHQWV
WKDW GR QRW QHFHVVDULO\ IROORZ WKH %301 ODQJXDJH UXOHV 2QH DVVXPSWLRQ ZDV PDGH
ZKLOHEXLOGLQJWKHLQWHUPHGLDWHPRGHOWKHEXVLQHVVSURFHVVPRGHOWKDWZDVGHILQHGKDG
QRW FRQVLGHUHG WKH UROH RI WKH DGPLVVLRQ DQG GLVFKDUJH FOHUNV DQG KDG DVVLJQHG WKHLU
WDVNVWRWKHUHVWRIWKHUHVRXUFHV:KLOHFUHDWLQJRXULQWHUPHGLDWHPRGHOZHFUHDWHGWKHVH
UROHV DQG DVVLJQHG WKHVH WDVNV WR WKHP 7KHUH ZHUH VHYHUDO SRLQWV WKDW ZHUH FRQVLGHUHG
ZKLOHEXLOGLQJWKHLQWHUPHGLDWHPRGHOUHSUHVHQWHGQH[WDVVLPSOLILFDWLRQJXLGHOLQHV

 6LPSOLILFDWLRQ*XLGHOLQHV

)RXULPSRUWDQWJXLGHOLQHVKHOSHGVLPSOLI\WKHVRXUFHH[HFXWDEOH%301PRGHODQGFRQ
YHUWLWWRDFRQFHSWXDOOHYHO%301PRGHOWREHWUDQVIRUPHGODWHUWRDVLPXODWLRQPRGHO
$VLPSOHH[DPSOHRIKRZZHFUHDWHGWKHLQWHUPHGLDWHPRGHOLVLOOXVWUDWHGLQ)LJXUH

&KDSWHU&UHDWLRQRID5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO&RQVWUXFWLQJD&RQFHSWXDO0RGHO 
Business Process Model
Remove
Flatten Implementati
on Elements

Remove
System Pool

Intermediate Model

Keep the Rest


of the pools


)LJXUH &UHDWLQJDQ,QWHUPHGLDWH &RQFHSWXDO 0RGHOIURPD%3013URFHVV0RGHO

 5HPRYH'DWD6WUXFWXUHVDQG:RUNIORZ,PSOHPHQWDWLRQ(OHPHQWV

7KH RULJLQDO %301 PRGHO LV DQ H[HFXWDEOH EXVLQHVV SURFHVV PRGHO IRU PRQLWRULQJ WKH
SDWLHQW IORZ 7KXV WKHUH DUH VHYHUDO HOHPHQWV WKDW H[LVW LQ WKLV PRGHO IRU UHDOL]LQJ DQG
H[DFWLQJWKHH[HFXWLRQRIWKHIORZ)RULQVWDQFHDWLPHWUDFNHUQRGHLVVHWLQDEXVLQHVV
SURFHVVPRGHOWRWUDFNWKHWLPLQJVRIWKHDFWLYLWLHVDQGHYHQWVLQUHDOWLPH$OOWKHGDWD
VWUXFWXUHVDQG XVHULQWHUIDFH LPSOHPHQWDWLRQHOHPHQWVZHUHVLPSO\UHPRYHGZKHQFUH

&KDSWHU&UHDWLRQRID5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO&RQVWUXFWLQJD&RQFHSWXDO0RGHO 


DWLQJ WKH LQWHUPHGLDWH PRGHO 7KHLU H[LVWHQFH LV VXEMHFW WR WKH VSHFLILF LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ
REMHFWLYHVDQGLVQRWUHTXLUHGIRUVLPXODWLRQV

 5HPRYH6\VWHP3RROV
6LQFHWKHEXVLQHVV SURFHVV FDSWXUHVWKHFDUH IORZIURP DV\VWHPVSRLQWRIYLHZLQIRU
PDWLRQFDSWXUHGLQD%301PRGHOUHIOHFWVWZRW\SHVRILQWHUDFWLRQV
x ,QWHUDFWLRQVEHWZHHQWKHV\VWHPDQGWKHSDUWLFLSDQWV
x ,QWHUDFWLRQVZLWKLQWKHV\VWHPLWVHOI

6LQFH$UHQDLVDQHQWLW\GULYHQVLPXODWLRQWRRORQO\WKHHOHPHQWVWKDWGLUHFWO\LPSDFWWKH
HQWLWLHVDUHPRGHOHG7KHUHIRUHWKHILUVWW\SHRILQWHUDFWLRQVZLOOEHPRGHOHGLQGLUHFWO\LQ
WKH VLPXODWLRQ PRGHO ZKHUHDV WKH VHFRQG W\SH RI LQWHUDFWLRQV ZLOO QRW EH UHIOHFWHG DW
DOO>@6\VWHPLVRQHRIWKHPDLQDFWRUVLQWKHEXVLQHVVSURFHVVPRGHOWKDWVHQGVUHFHLYHV
DQGUHFRUGVUHTXLUHGLQIRUPDWLRQ VHHWKHERWWRPRI )LJXUH 7KHLQWHUDFWLRQVZLWKLQ
WKHV\VWHPDUHUHIOHFWHG LQ WKHV\VWHPSRRO ZKHUHD%301SRROLV DKRUL]RQWDOUHJLRQ
FRQWDLQLQJDFWLYLWLHV 7KLVDFWRUDVLPSRUWDQWDVLWVUROHLVLQWKHEXVLQHVVSURFHVVPRGHO
LVQRWFRYHUHGLQWKHVLPXODWLRQPRGHO7KLVPHDQVWKDWDOORIWKHHOHPHQWVH[LVWLQJLQWKH
V\VWHPSRRORIDEXVLQHVVSURFHVVPRGHOVKRXOGQRWEHLQFOXGHGLQWKHLQWHUPHGLDWHPRG
HODQGWKHUHIRUHWKHV\VWHPSRROVKRXOGEHUHPRYHG7KHRWKHUSRROVZHUHNHSWDVLV

 5HPRYH0HVVDJHV
7KHUHDUHVHYHUDOW\SHVRIHYHQWQRGHVXVHGLQ%3017KHHYHQWQRGHVPRGHOWKHRFFXU
UHQFHRIHYHQWVWKDWPLJKWKDSSHQDWWKHEHJLQQLQJDWWKHHQGRUGXULQJDSURFHVVIORZ
7KHPDSSLQJJXLGHOLQHVUHODWHGWRWKHHYHQWQRGHVWKDWDUHEHLQJXVHGDWWKHEHJLQQLQJRU
WKHHQGRIWKHSURFHVV IORZVZLOOEHGLVFXVVHGLQWKHQH[WVHFWLRQ2QHRIWKHFRPPRQ
W\SHVRIHYHQWQRGHVXVHGLQRXUEXVLQHVVSURFHVVPRGHOLVWKHPHVVDJHQRGH7KHPHV
VDJHQRGHVWKDWH[LVWLQWKHPLGGOHRIWKHSURFHVVIORZVDUHRIWHQXVHGWRLQGLFDWHWKHLQL
WLDWLRQRUFRPSOHWLRQRIDQHYHQWRUWRVHQGDQGUHFHLYHPHVVDJHVLQRUGHUWRFRPPXQL
FDWHWKHUHVXOWRIDWDVN RUDSURFHVV 7KLV LQIRUPDWLRQ WUDQVIHULV QRW D YLVLEOHSK\VLFDO
WDVN IURP WKH SDWLHQWV SRLQW RI YLHZ DQG WKHUHIRUH VKDOO EH LJQRUHG LQ WKH SURFHVV RI
EXLOGLQJWKHLQWHUPHGLDWHPRGHO

&KDSWHU&UHDWLRQRID5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO&RQVWUXFWLQJD&RQFHSWXDO0RGHO 


 )ODWWHQWKH%XVLQHVV3URFHVV0RGHO
%301 VXSSRUWV KLHUDUFKLFDO GHFRPSRVLWLRQ 'XH WR WKH FRPSOH[LW\ RI WKH FDUGLDF FDUH
SURFHVVPRGHOWKLVSURFHVVKDVEHHQPRGHOHGXVLQJVXESURFHVVHV+RZHYHUIRUVLPSOLF
LW\WKHLQWHUPHGLDWHPRGHOLVIODWWHQHGDQGVKRZVRQHSURFHVVIORZDWRQHOHYHOWKDWUH
TXLUHVDOORIWKHVWDUWDQGHQGQRGHVWREHUHPRYHGDQGRQO\WKHILUVWVWDUWQRGHLQWKHILUVW
EXVLQHVVSURFHVVDQGWKHODVWHQGQRGHLQWKHODVWSURFHVVDUHWREHNHSW

 &UHDWLQJD6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO
7KH $UHQD VLPXODWLRQ PRGHO ZDV FUHDWHG XVLQJ WKH IROORZLQJ JXLGHOLQHV IRU FRQYHUWLQJ
WKH LQWHUPHGLDWH PRGHO WR WKH VLPXODWLRQ PRGHO DQG ILQDOO\ IRU DGGLQJ UHTXLUHG LQIRU
PDWLRQVSHFLILFWRWKHVLPXODWLRQPRGHO
%HIRUH GLVFXVVLQJ WKH FRQYHUVLRQ JXLGHOLQHV VRPH RI WKH PRVW W\SLFDOO\ XVHG
PRGXOHVLQWKH$UHQDVLPXODWLRQWRRODUHEULHIO\GHILQHG
x &UHDWH0RGXOH7KLVPRGXOHLVXVHGWRLQLWLDWHWKHGLVFUHWHDUULYDORIWKHHQWL
WLHVWRWKHVLPXODWHGSURFHVV
x 3URFHVV0RGXOH7KLVPRGXOHFRUUHVSRQGVWRDQDFWLYLW\RUDWDVNLQYROYHGLQ
DSURFHVVLQHQWLWLHVSRLQWRIYLHZ
x 'HFLGH0RGXOH7KLV PRGXOHLV XVHGZKHQHYHUDQHQWLW\GHFLGHVDPRQJGLI
IHUHQWSRVVLEOHEUDQFKHVWKURXJKDSURFHVVORJLFDFFRUGLQJWRDVSHFLILFFRQGL
WLRQRUE\DFHUWDLQSUREDELOLW\
x 'LVSRVH0RGXOH7KLVPRGXOHLVXVHGWRUHPRYHWKHHQWLWLHVIURPWKHSURFHVV
DIWHUWKHSURFHVVLVFRPSOHWHG
x $VVLJQ0RGXOH7KLVPRGXOHLVXVHGWRDVVLJQDQDWWULEXWHWRHQWLW\WRDVVLJQD
YDOXHWRDYDULDEOHHWF
x 5HFRUG0RGXOH7KLVPRGXOHLVXVHGWRFROOHFWDQGUHFRUGWKHUHTXLUHGVWDWLV
WLFDOYDOXHVRILQWHUHVW
x 'HOD\0RGXOH7KLVPRGXOHGHOD\VWKHHQWLW\E\DFHUWDLQDPRXQWRIWLPH

&KDSWHU&UHDWLRQRID5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO&UHDWLQJD6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO 


 &RQYHUVLRQ*XLGHOLQHV

$V PHQWLRQHG LQ )LJXUH  DOO WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ FDSWXUHG E\ WKH LQWHUPHGLDWH PRGHO LV
PDSSHGWRWKHVLPXODWLRQPRGHOIROORZLQJFHUWDLQJXLGHOLQHV

$FWLYLW\WR3URFHVV
,QWKHLQWHUPHGLDWHEXVLQHVVSURFHVVPRGHOWKHFRQFHSWNQRZQDVDFWLYLW\LVXVHGWRSUH
VHQWDGXW\DVVLJQHGWRDQLQGLYLGXDO$V7DEOHLQGLFDWHVWKHDFWLYLWLHVWKDWH[LVWLQWKH
LQWHUPHGLDWHPRGHOFDQEHFDWHJRUL]HGLQWRWKUHHJURXSV7KHILUVWW\SHLVWKHVWDUWLQJDF
WLYLWLHVFRUUHVSRQGLQJWRWKHDUULYDORIHQWLWLHVLQWKHV\VWHP LQWKLVFDVHVWXG\SDWLHQWV
ZKR DUULYH DW WKH HPHUJHQF\ GHSDUWPHQW  7KH HQWUDQFH RI SDWLHQWV LQ WKH KRVSLWDO LV
VKRZQDVDWDVNLQWKHLQWHUPHGLDWHPRGHO,QWKHVLPXODWLRQPRGHOWKHHQWLWLHVQHHGWREH
FUHDWHGDWWKHEHJLQQLQJRIWKHSURFHVVOHWWLQJWKHPRGHOJHWSRSXODWHGZLWKWKHHQWLWLHV
7KH HTXLYDOHQW RI WKHVH W\SHV RI DFWLYLWLHV LV D FUHDWH PRGXOH LQ WKH $UHQD VLPXODWLRQ
PRGHO7KHDGGLWLRQDOLQIRUPDWLRQWKDWVKRXOGEHDGGHGIRUWKLVPRGXOHLVWKHUDWHRIDUUL
YDOVDQGWKHQXPEHURIHQWLWLHVHQWHULQJDWHDFKWLPHVWHS

7DEOH &RQFHSW&RQYHUVLRQ$FWLYLW\
%XVLQHVV $UHQD6LPXOD
$GGLWLRQDO,QIRU
3URFHVV0RGHO &RQGLWLRQ WLRQ0RGHOLQJ
PDWLRQUHTXLUHG"
&RQFHSWV &RQFHSWV
$UULYDORIHQWLWLHVWRWKH
&UHDWHPRGXOH <HV
V\VWHP
6HQGLQJRUUHFHLYLQJQRWL ,QFOXGHGLQD
<HV
$FWLYLW\ ILFDWLRQVRUUHTXHVWV SURFHVVPRGXOH
7DVNVDVVLJQHGWRSDUWLFL
SDQWVH[FOXGLQJV\VWHP 3URFHVVPRGXOH <HV
UHODWHGWDVNV

7KH VHFRQG JURXS RI DFWLYLWLHV WKDW H[LVW LQ WKH LQWHUPHGLDWH PRGHO DUH WKH RQHV FRUUH
VSRQGLQJWRWKHDFWLYLWLHVWKURXJKZKLFKDSDUWLFLSDQWLVXVLQJWKHV\VWHPIRUFRPPXQL
FDWLQJZLWKWKHRWKHUXVHUV7KHVHDFWLYLWLHVDUHWKHRQHVWKDWZHLQGLUHFWO\PRGHOHG SUH
YLRXVO\ GLVFXVVHG LQ WKH   5HPRYH 6\VWHP 3RRO VHFWLRQ 7KHVH DFWLYLWLHV DUH DOZD\V
SDUWRIDSK\VLFDODFWLYLW\ )RUH[DPSOHDIWHUWKH('QXUVHGRHVWKHWULDJHDQGUHTXHVWV
IRULQLWLDOFRQVXOWDWLRQWREHGRQHE\WKH('SK\VLFLDQLQWKHSDWLHQWVSRLQWRIYLHZWKH
DFWLYLW\RIUHTXHVWLQJIRULQLWLDOFRQVXOWDWLRQLVSDUWRIWKHWULDJHDFWLYLW\7KHUHIRUHWKH

&KDSWHU&UHDWLRQRID5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO&UHDWLQJD6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO 


GHWDLOHG EUHDNGRZQ RI WKH DFWLYLW\ FRPSRQHQWV LV QRW QHFHVVDU\ WR EH UHIOHFWHG LQ WKH
VLPXODWLRQ PRGHO DQG WKHVH DFWLYLWLHV FDQ EH PHUJHG ZLWK WKH UHODWHG SK\VLFDO DFWLYLW\
7KHVH WDVNV DUH EHLQJ PRGHOHG LQ D VLPXODWLRQ WKURXJK RQH SURFHVV PRGXOH WKDW FDS
WXUHVERWKWKHSK\VLFDODFWLYLW\DQGWKHSDUWLFLSDQWVUHODWHGFRPPXQLFDWLRQVYLDWKHV\V
WHP
7KH WKLUG W\SH RI WDVNV LQ DQ LQWHUPHGLDWH PRGHO FRQWDLQV WKH SK\VLFDO DFWLYLWLHV
LQYROYHG LQ WKH IORZ WKDW ZLOO EH GLUHFWO\ PRGHOHG DV DFWLYLWLHV LQ WKH VLPXODWLRQ PRGHO
XVLQJDSURFHVVPRGXOH
7KH VXSSOHPHQWDU\ LQIRUPDWLRQ WKDW VKRXOG EH DGGHG WR WKH VHFRQG DQG WKLUG
JURXSVRIWDVNVLQFOXGHVWKHGXUDWLRQRIWKHDFWLYLWLHVDVZHOODVWKHUHVRXUFHVDVVLJQHGWR
HDFKDFWLYLW\

3RRODQG/DQHWR5HVRXUFH
$QLQWHUPHGLDWHPRGHOFRQWDLQVSRROVDQGODQHVZKLFK VKRZGLIIHUHQW SDUWLFLSDQWV LQ D
SURFHVVIORZUHJDUGOHVVRIWKHLUFDSDFLW\DQGDYDLODELOLW\

7DEOH &RQFHSW&RQYHUVLRQ/DQHYV5HVRXUFHV
%XVLQHVV &RQGLWLRQ $UHQD6LPXOD $GGLWLRQDO,QIRU
3URFHVV0RGHO WLRQ0RGHOLQJ PDWLRQUHTXLUHG"
&RQFHSWV &RQFHSWV
3RRO   

/DQH  5HVRXUFH <HV


,Q WKH LQWHUPHGLDWH PRGHO D SRRO VKRZV WKH RUJDQL]DWLRQ IRU ZKLFK WKH IORZ LV EHLQJ
PRGHOHGDQGWKHODQHVVKRZGLIIHUHQWRUJDQL]DWLRQDOUROHV7KHVHUROHVDUHVKRZQPDLQO\
WR VSHFLI\ WDVN DXWKRUL]DWLRQ ,Q $UHQD WDVNV UHTXLUH WR EH DXWKRUL]HG DQG DVVLJQHG DV
ZHOO7KHDXWKRUL]DWLRQRIHDFKWDVNZLOOEHGRQHLQVLGHHDFKLPSOHPHQWHGUHODWHGPRG
XOH)LJXUHVKRZVWKHFRQYHUVLRQRIDODQHWRWKHUHVRXUFH+RZHYHUWKLVLQIRUPDWLRQ
LVQRWVXIILFLHQWIRUDVLPXODWLRQPRGHO7KHUHIRUHDGGLWLRQDOGHWDLOHGLQIRUPDWLRQUHODWHG
WR WKHFDSDFLW\DQGWKHDYDLODELOLW\RIWKHUHVRXUFHV IRU DPRUHSUHFLVH DQDO\VLVRIHDFK
UHVRXUFHEHKDYLRXUDQGLWVVSHFLILFZRUNORDGLVUHTXLUHG

&KDSWHU&UHDWLRQRID5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO&UHDWLQJD6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO 
Lane to Resource

)LJXUH &RQYHUVLRQRI/DQHWR5HVRXUFH

6HTXHQFH)ORZWR&RQQHFWRU
,QWKHLQWHUPHGLDWHPRGHOWKHRUGHURIWKHDFWLYLWLHVDQGHYHQWVLVVKRZQE\PHDQVRIVH
TXHQFHIORZV,Q$UHQDWKHVHTXHQFHRIWKHDFWLYLWLHVLVGHFODUHGE\WKHXVHRIFRQQHFW
RUV

7DEOH &RQFHSW&RQYHUVLRQ&RQQHFWRUV
%XVLQHVV3URFHVV0RGHO &RQGLWLRQ $UHQD6LPXOD $GGLWLRQDO,QIRU
&RQFHSWV WLRQ0RGHOLQJ PDWLRQUHTXLUHG"
&RQFHSWV
6HTXHQFHIORZ  &RQQHFWRU 

&KDSWHU&UHDWLRQRID5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO&UHDWLQJD6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO 



*DWHZD\WR'HFLGH0RGXOH
7DEOH  VKRZV WKH WZR GLIIHUHQW W\SHV RI JDWHZD\V WKDW ZHUH XVHG LQ WKH LQWHUPHGLDWH
PRGHO

7DEOH &RQFHSW&RQYHUVLRQ*DWHZD\YV'HFLVLRQ0RGXOH
%XVLQHVV3URFHVV &RQGLWLRQ $UHQD6LPXOD $GGLWLRQDO,QIRU
0RGHO&RQFHSWV WLRQ0RGHOLQJ PDWLRQUHTXLUHG"
&RQFHSWV
*DWHZD\ ([FOXVLYH*DWHZD\ 'HFLGH0RGXOH <HV

,QFOXVLYH*DWHZD\ 'HFLGH0RGXOH <HV


,QWKHLQWHUPHGLDWHPRGHOVRPHWLPHVWKHSDWLHQWSDWKKDVWREUDQFKWKURXJKDQH[FOXVLYH
RULQFOXVLYHJDWHZD\7KHLQFOXVLYHJDWHZD\LVXVHGZKHQWKHHQWLW\LVDOORZHGWRFKRRVH
RQHRUDOORIWKHEUDQFKHV$QH[FOXVLYHJDWHZD\LVXVHGZKHQDQHQWLW\FDQRQO\FKRRVH
RQHEUDQFKDPRQJDOORIWKHSRVVLEOHEUDQFKHV)RUERWKW\SHVRIJDWHZD\VWKHHTXLYDOHQW
FRQFHSWLQ$UHQDLVWKHGHFLGHPRGXOH+RZHYHUH[FOXVLYHJDWHZD\VDUHVKRZQE\RQH
GHFLGHPRGXOHZKHUHDVVHYHUDOGHFLGHPRGXOHVDUHXVHGIRUPDSSLQJWKHLQFOXVLYHJDWH
ZD\VSURSHUO\7KHQXPEHURIGHFLGHPRGXOHVZHXVHIRUWKHODWWHULVHTXDOWRWKHQXPEHU
RI EUDQFKHV RI WKH LQFOXVLYH JDWHZD\ LQ WKH LQWHUPHGLDWH PRGHO $ VHW RI FRQGLWLRQV RU
SUREDELOLWLHV DUH XVHG DV DGGLWLRQDO LQIRUPDWLRQ WR VKRZ WKH SRVVLELOLW\ RI WDNLQJ HDFK
EUDQFK

6WDUW1RGHWR&UHDWH0RGXOH
$VWDUWQRGHLVXVHGWRWULJJHUDSURFHVVLQWKHLQWHUPHGLDWHPRGHO7KLVQRGHUHIHUVWRWKH
DUULYDORISDWLHQWVWRWKHKRVSLWDO$VORQJDVWKHUHLVDQDFWLYLW\UHIHUULQJWRWKHSDWLHQW
DUULYDOV WR WKH (' IRU ZKLFK DQ HTXLYDOHQW FRQFHSW RI FUHDWH PRGXOH LV XVHG WKH VWDUW
QRGHFRXOGEHLJQRUHGDQGQRWEHLQFOXGHGLQWKHVLPXODWLRQPRGHO,QRXULQWHUPHGLDWH
PRGHOWKHVSHFLILFDFWLYLW\UHODWHGWRWKHDUULYDORIWKHSDWLHQWVWRWKHKRVSLWDODOUHDG\H[
LVWHGWKHUHIRUHZHVLPSO\LJQRUHWKHVWDUWQRGH$QH[DPSOHRIWKLVFRQYHUVLRQLVVKRZQ
LQ)LJXUH

&KDSWHU&UHDWLRQRID5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO&UHDWLQJD6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO 
(QG1RGHWR'LVSRVH0RGXOH
%\WKHHQGRIDSURFHVVIORZWKHHQGQRGHLVXVHGLQWKHLQWHUPHGLDWHPRGHOWRVKRZWKH
WHUPLQDWLRQRIWKHIORZ7KLVQRGHLVHTXLYDOHQWWRWKHGLVSRVHPRGXOHLQ$UHQD 7DEOH 
ZKLFKGLVFDUGVWKHHQWLWLHVIURPWKHPRGHODIWHUWKH\DUHILQLVKHGZLWKWKHIORZ$QH[
DPSOHRIWKLVW\SHRIFRQYHUVLRQLVDOVRVKRZQLQ)LJXUH

7DEOH &RQFHSW&RQYHUVLRQ(QGLQJWKH)ORZ
%XVLQHVV3URFHVV0RGHO &RQGLWLRQ $UHQD 6LPXOD $GGLWLRQDO,QIRU
&RQFHSWV WLRQ 0RGHOLQJ PDWLRQUHTXLUHG"
&RQFHSWV
(QG1RGH  'LVSRVH 1R

Start Node to Create Module End Node to. Discard Module

)LJXUH 6WDUW1RGHWR&UHDWH0RGXOH(QG1RGHWR'LVFDUG0RGXOH

 $GGLWLRQDO0RGXOHV

(YHQWXDOO\ZHDGGHGVRPHPRGXOHVWRRXUPRGHOGXHWRWKHVLPXODWLRQREMHFWLYHV
x 6LQFH WKH SDWLHQWV ZHUH RI GLIIHUHQW &7$6 OHYHOV DQG EHFDXVH ZH PRGHOHG
VXFKOHYHOVDVDQDWWULEXWHIRUWKHHQWLW\WKLVKDVUHTXLUHGXVWRXVHVRPHSURE

&KDSWHU&UHDWLRQRID5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO&UHDWLQJD6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO 


DELOLWLHVUHODWHGWRWKHSHUFHQWDJHRIHDFKSULRULW\E\XVLQJDGHFLGHPRGXOHRU
DQ DVVLJQ PRGXOH $OVR ZH VHWXS WKH TXHXHV WR IROORZ D VSHFLILF GLVFLSOLQH
WKURXJKZKLFKWKHSDWLHQWVDUHVHUYHGDFFRUGLQJWRWKHLUKHDOWKFRQGLWLRQSUL
RULW\7KHSDWLHQWVZLWKPRUHVHYHUHFRQGLWLRQVDUHSODFHGLQIURQWRIWKHDFWLY
LW\TXHXHVWRJHWVHUYHGVRRQHU
x :HXVHGDUHFRUGPRGXOHWRUHFRUGWKHVWDWLVWLFVZHQHHGWRKDYHDWWKHHQGRI
WKHVLPXODWLRQUXQV
x :HDOVR KDYHXVHGVHL]HDQGUHOHDVH PRGXOHVRQO\ IRUVSHFLILFFDVHVIRU DQ
HQWLW\WRVHL]HDQGUHOHDVHDUHVRXUFH:HKDYHVHWRQHVSHFLILFUHVRXUFHIURP
DUHVRXUFHJURXSWREHDVVLJQHGWRDSDWLHQWXQWLOWKHHQGRIWKHSDWLHQW
VMRXU
QH\ LQ KRVSLWDO )RU H[DPSOH LI WKH SDWLHQW LV EHLQJ WULDJHG E\ ('QXUVH
DPRQJDJURXSRI('QXUVHVWKHQKHVKHZLOOKDYHKLVKHUEORRGWHVWRU(&*
GRQHE\('QXUVH7KLVLVUHIOHFWLQJWKHSURFHGXUHIROORZHGDW2VOHUKRVSLWDO
x $IWHU LQWHUYLHZLQJ DQ H[SHUW ZKR ZDV GLUHFWO\ LQYROYHG ZLWK WKH FDUGLDF SD
WLHQWIORZRI2VOHUKRVSLWDOZHKDGWRDGGVRPHRWKHUPRGXOHVWRWKHIORZDV
ZHOO:HUHDOL]HGWKHUHZHUHVRPHDFWLYLWLHVWKDWLPSDFWHGWKHSDWLHQWGXUDWLRQ
RI VWD\ LQ WKH KRVSLWDO OLNH D GHOD\ LQ SDWLHQW IORZ EHIRUH UHFHLYLQJ PHGLFDO
WHVWUHVXOWV:HVKRZHGWKHVHDFWLYLWLHVWKURXJKGHOD\PRGXOHV$OVRWKHDF
WLYLW\SRVWSURFHGXUHURXQGZDVEURNHQGRZQLQWRDVHWRIVPDOOHUDFWLYLWLHV
IRULQFUHDVHGSUHFLVLRQZKHQDVVLJQLQJWKHWDVNVLQYROYHG
x 7KHDFWLYLWLHVLQYROYHGLQSDWLHQWFOLQLFDOSDWKZD\VDUHPRVWO\KXPDQUHODWHG
DQGWKHLVVXHRIFDSWXULQJKXPDQUHODWHGEHKDYLRUKDVEHHQDFRQFHUQLQSULRU
VWXGLHV+RZHYHULQWKLVZRUNZHWULHGWRPLWLJDWHLWVLPSDFWE\LQWURGXFLQJ
VPDOOUDQGRPL]HGYDULDWLRQVWRWKHVLPXODWLRQPRGHOEHKDYLRXUZKHQHYHUDS
SURSULDWH)RUH[DPSOHZKLOHFKRRVLQJWKHDSSURSULDWHGLVWULEXWLRQIRUDQDF
WLYLW\VXFKDVSHUIRUPLQJWKH(&*ZHKDYHFRQVLGHUHGDVPDOOSURSRUWLRQRI
WLPHDGGHGWRHDFKRIWKHSXUHGDWDYDOXHVWKDWZDVUHWULHYHG7KLVGHOD\ZDV
WDNHQLQWRFRQVLGHUDWLRQWRUHIOHFWWKHVLWXDWLRQVZKHQQR(&*GHYLFHLVLGOHWR
EHXVHGDQGWKH('QXUVHXQZLOOLQJO\ZDLWVIRURQHGHYLFHWREHFRPHLGOH)RU
UHDOL]LQJ DQ LPSRUWDQW UHDOWLPH VLPXODWLRQ IHDWXUH WKH LQLWLDOL]DWLRQ IURP D
SUHGHILQHG VWDWH  QRW VXSSRUWHG RXWRIWKHER[ E\ $UHQD D QXPEHU RI PRG

&KDSWHU&UHDWLRQRID5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO&UHDWLQJD6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO 
XOHVZHUH DGGHGWR WKH VLPXODWLRQPRGHO HJVHHWKH$FWLYDWLQJ5HDO7LPH
6LPXODWLRQSDUWLQ)LJXUH WKDWFDXVHGWKHVL]HRIWKHPRGHOWRDOPRVWGRX
EOH


Intermediate Model

Arena Model
Activating Real-
Time Simulation

Activity to Create
Module

Gateway to
Decide
Add Attributes
Module
and Measure
Statistics Activity to
Process Module

)LJXUH 0DSSLQJWKH,QWHUPHGLDWH0RGHOWRDQ$UHQD6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO

&KDSWHU&UHDWLRQRID5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO&UHDWLQJD6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO 


x :HHYHQWXDOO\DGGHGDIXOO\VHSDUDWHSURFHVVWRRXUVLPXODWLRQPRGHOIRUDX
WRPDWLQJWKHQXPEHURIUHSOLFDWLRQVIRUHDFKVFHQDULRUXQ:HZLOOGLVFXVVWKH
UHDVRQIRUDGGLQJWKLVSURFHVVODWHU

)LJXUHVKRZVDVDPSOHH[DPSOHRIKRZZHXVHGWKHFRQYHUVLRQJXLGHOLQHV


 2EVHUYDWLRQVDERXW0DSSLQJV
%XVLQHVVSURFHVVPRGHOVDUHEXLOWIRUGLIIHUHQWSXUSRVHVVXFKDV
x 3URFHVVGRFXPHQWDWLRQ
x 3URFHVVUHRUJDQL]DWLRQ
x 3URFHVVPRQLWRULQJDQGFRQWUROOLQJ
x 3URFHVVSHUIRUPDQFHLPSURYHPHQW
x :RUNIORZPDQDJHPHQW

%DVHGRQGLIIHUHQWREMHFWLYHVH[SHFWHGIURPWKHPRGHOWKHPRGHOLQJVW\OHVDQGPHWKRG
RORJLHVRIWHQGLIIHU+RZHYHUWKHUHLVRQHFRPPRQSRLQWDPRQJDOOGLIIHUHQWSXUSRVHV
WKHIORZZLOOEHORRNHGDWIURPDEXVLQHVVSRLQWRIYLHZDQGWKHDFWLYLWLHVDQGHYHQWVUH
ODWHGWRDEXVLQHVVSURFHVVPRGHOZLOOEHFDSWXUHG7KHUHLVPXFKSUDFWLFDOLQIRUPDWLRQ
UHJDUGLQJWKHVHTXHQFHRIWKHDFWLYLWLHVDQGHYHQWVWKDWLVFDSWXUHGLQDEXVLQHVVSURFHVV
PRGHODQGWKDWFRXOGEHUHXVHGIRUEXLOGLQJDFRUUHVSRQGLQJVLPXODWLRQPRGHO8VLQJWKH
LQIRUPDWLRQ DOUHDG\ FDSWXUHG DYRLGV VWDUWLQJ WR PRGHO IURP VFUDWFK 7KLV DSSURDFK KDV
KRZHYHU RQH PDLQ GUDZEDFN 7KDW LV HYHQ LI EXVLQHVV SURFHVV PRGHOHUV XVH WKH VDPH
PHWKRGRORJ\IRUEXLOGLQJPRGHOV HJ%301 WKH\PD\KDYHGLIIHUHQWZD\VRIPRGHO
LQJWKHVDPHSURFHVVDQGWKHVW\OHVPLJKWYDU\DFFRUGLQJWRWKHSRLQWVRIYLHZ7KLVFDQ
OLPLWWKHJHQHUDOLW\RIWKHJXLGHOLQHVH[SUHVVHGLQWKHSUHYLRXVVHFWLRQEXWWKLVFDQQRWGH
Q\ WKH YDOXDEOH LQIRUPDWLRQ WKDW FDQ EH H[WUDFWHG IURP WKH EXVLQHVV SURFHVV PRGHO IRU
FUHDWLQJDVLPXODWLRQPRGHO

&KDSWHU&UHDWLRQRID5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO2EVHUYDWLRQVDERXW0DSSLQJV 


 'DWD&ROOHFWLRQDQG'DWD,QSXW
$VGLVFXVVHGLQWKHSUHYLRXVVHFWLRQDOWKRXJKWKHVHTXHQFHRIDFWLYLWLHVLQWKHVLPXODWLRQ
PRGHOFRXOGEHFDSWXUHGWKURXJKPDSSLQJIURPWKHEXVLQHVVSURFHVVPRGHOWKHUHLVVWLOO
VRPHDGGLWLRQDOLQIRUPDWLRQWKDWLVUHTXLUHGWREHLQMHFWHGWRWKHPRGHOWRIRUPDFRP
SOHWHVLPXODWLRQPRGHO7KLVGDWDLVDQHFHVVDU\FRPSRQHQWIRUIRUPLQJTXDQWLILDEOHSD
UDPHWHUVWKDWFDQEHPHDVXUHGDQGFRPSDUHG HJSUREDELOLWLHVVWDWLVWLFDOGLVWULEXWLRQV
DQG UHVRXUFH VFKHGXOHV  ,Q WKLV VWXG\ H[WHUQDO DFFHVV WR VRPH RI WKH LQSXW GDWD RI WKH
VLPXODWLRQPRGHOZDVSURYLGHG$Q([FHOILOHLVSRSXODWHGZLWKWKHUHTXLUHGGDWDDQGLV
LPSRUWHGLQWKHVLPXODWLRQPRGHO7KLVHQDEOHVWKHXVHUWRKDYHDFFHVVWRWKHLQSXWGDWD
ZLWKRXW FKDQJLQJ WKH LPSOHPHQWHG PRGHO DQG WR PDNH FKDQJHV H[WHUQDOO\ LI UHTXLUHG
(YHQWXDOO\ WKH LQSXW GDWD IURP WKH UHDOWLPH EXVLQHVV SURFHVV PRQLWRULQJ V\VWHP VHH
)LJXUH   ZLOO EH DXWRPDWLFDOO\ LQMHFWHG LQWR WKH H[WHUQDO ILOH KHQFH DFWLQJ DV DQ LQWHU
IDFH LQDWLPHO\PDQQHUVRWKHVLPXODWLRQPRGHOFDQUXQZLWKWKHUHDOFXUUHQWGDWDRIWKH
V\VWHP,QWKLVVWXG\WKHIRFXVZDVRQWU\LQJWRDFFHVVDQGFRQILJXUHWKHGDWDH[WHUQDOO\
ZLWKRXW PDNLQJ DQ\ GLUHFW FKDQJH LQ WKH VLPXODWLRQ PRGHO DQG OHVV HQJLQHHULQJ HIIRUW
ZDVLQYHVWHGLQLQWHJUDWLQJWKHUHDOWLPHPRQLWRULQJV\VWHPDQGWKHVLPXODWLRQPRGHO
7KHUHDUHWZRW\SHVRIGDWDUHTXLUHGWREHLQMHFWHGLQWRWKHVLPXODWLRQPRGHO
x +LVWRULFDOGDWD
x ,QLWLDOVWDWHGDWD SUHVHQWVWDWHRIWKHKRVSLWDO 

 +LVWRULFDO'DWD

7KHKLVWRULFDOGDWDZDVSDUWLDOO\WDNHQIURPWKHKRVSLWDOFXUUHQWGDWDEDVHDQGWKHUHVWZDV
DFTXLUHG E\ LQWHUYLHZLQJ KRVSLWDO HPSOR\HHV 7KH GDWD UHFHLYHG IURP WKH GDWDEDVH ZDV
WKHUHDOGDWDUHODWHGWRRQHPRQWKSHUIRUPDQFHRIWKHKRVSLWDO -DQXDU\ 7KHGDWD
FROOHFWHGWKURXJKWKHLQWHUYLHZVUHSUHVHQWHGVXIILFLHQWDSSUR[LPDWLRQRIWKHUHDOGDWDDF
FRUGLQJWRWKHREVHUYHGEHKDYLRXURIWKHFDUGLDFSDWKZD\DW2VOHUKRVSLWDOFRQILUPHGE\
WKHHPSOR\HHV'XHWRWKHFRQILGHQWLDOLW\RIWKHSDWLHQWGDWDQRWDOORIWKHGDWDFRXOGEH
DFTXLUHG IURP WKH GDWDEDVH $OVR VRPHWLPHV WKH GDWD ZDV QRW HQWHUHG SURSHUO\ E\ WKH
FOLQLFDOVWDIIDQGZDVXQDYDLODEOHIRUXVH

&KDSWHU&UHDWLRQRID5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO'DWD&ROOHFWLRQDQG'DWD,QSXW 


 ,QLWLDO6WDWH'DWD

7KHLQLWLDOVWDWHRIWKHKRVSLWDOVKRXOGFRQVLVWLQDOORIWKHLQIRUPDWLRQEHORZLQRUGHUWR
LQMHFWDQDFFXUDWHFXUUHQWVWDWHRIWKHV\VWHP
x 1XPEHURISDWLHQWVLQHDFKTXHXHUHODWHGWRHDFKWDVN
x 1XPEHURISDWLHQWVLQYROYHGZLWKDFHUWDLQWDVNZKLOHWKHVLPXODWLRQVWDUWV
x 6WDUWLQJVWDWHRIHDFKUHVRXUFHW\SH QXUVHVSK\VLFLDQVEHGVHWF 

6HYHUDODVVXPSWLRQVZHUHPDGHIRUIHHGLQJVXFKGDWDWRWKHPRGHO
x %HIRUHWKHLQLWLDOL]DWLRQUHVRXUFHVDUHDVVXPHGWREHLGOH:RUNLQSURJUHVVLV
QRW LQLWLDOL]HG H[SOLFLWO\ 2QO\ WKH TXHXHV QHHG WR EH LQLWLDOL]HG DV WKH ILUVW
WKLQJWKHVLPXODWLRQZLOOGRZKHQLWVVWDUWVLVWRDOORFDWHSDWLHQWVWRUHVRXUFHV
x ,IDSDWLHQWLVLQYROYHGZLWKDVSHFLILFWDVNZKHQWKHVLPXODWLRQJHWVVWDUWHG
WKHSDWLHQW LV DVVXPHGWR EHVWDUWLQJIURP WKH EHJLQQLQJRIWKDWWDVNDQG QRW
IURPLQWKHPLGGOHRIJHWWLQJVHUYHG
x $OOSDWLHQWVZKRHQWHUZDLWXQWLOWKH\UHFHLYHWKHLUFRPSOHWHVHUYLFHDQGWKHUH
LVQRSDWLHQW/HDYH:LWKRXW%HLQJ6HHQ /:%6 

7KHUHIRUHRQO\WKHQXPEHURISDWLHQWVLQHDFKTXHXHZDVVHWWRDVSHFLILFQXPEHULQWKH
([FHOILOHZKRVHVWUXFWXUHDQGVDPSOHGDWDDUHLOOXVWUDWHGLQ )LJXUH )RULQVWDQFHLI
WKHUH LV WDVN IRU ZKLFK UHVRXUFH KDV EHHQ DVVLJQHG $UHQD UHDGV WKH QXPEHU LQ WKH
TXHXH UHODWHG WR WDVN FKHFNV IRU WKH DYDLODELOLW\ RI UHVRXUFH DW WKH EHJLQQLQJ RI WKH
VLPXODWLRQUXQDQGLIUHVRXUFHLVDYDLODEOHWDNHVRQHRIWKHHQWLWLHVLQWKHTXHXHLQVLGH
WKHSURFHVVPRGXOHDQGPDNHVWKHUHVWRIWKHHQWLWLHVVWD\LQWKHTXHXH,IUHVRXUFHLVQRW
DYDLODEOHRULVQRWEHLQJVFKHGXOHGWRWDVNDWWKHEHJLQQLQJRIWKHVLPXODWLRQUXQDOORI
WKHHQWLWLHVZLOOVWD\LQWKHTXHXHDQGZDLWIRUUHVRXUFHWREHFRPHDYDLODEOH7KXVVHW
WLQJWKHQXPEHURISDWLHQWVLQWKHTXHXHLVLQGLUHFWO\VHWWLQJWKHVWDWHRIWKHUHVRXUFHVDV
ZHOODVWKHQXPEHURISDWLHQWVDOUHDG\EHLQJSURFHVVHG
5HVRXUFH VFKHGXOHV HJ IRU QXUVHV DQG SK\VLFLDQV  LQ WHUPV RI WKHLU FDSDFLW\
ZHUHDOVRVHWWREHUHDGIURPDQH[WHUQDOILOHLQZKLFKWKHFDSDFLW\RIWKHUHVRXUFHVFDQ
FKDQJHSHUVKLIW KRXUV IRUDKRXUSHULRG)LJXUHVKRZVWKHVWUXFWXUHRIWKLVVH
FRQG([FHOILOHILOOHGZLWKVDPSOHGDWD

&KDSWHU&UHDWLRQRID5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO'DWD&ROOHFWLRQDQG'DWD,QSXW 


)LJXUH 5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ,QLWLDOL]DWLRQIRU4XHXHVDQG3URFHVV'XUDWLRQ

&KDSWHU&UHDWLRQRID5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO'DWD&ROOHFWLRQDQG'DWD,QSXW 


)LJXUH 5HDOWLPH6LPXODWLRQ,QLWLDOL]DWLRQRI5HVRXUFH6FKHGXOLQJ

&KDSWHU&UHDWLRQRID5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO'DWD&ROOHFWLRQDQG'DWD,QSXW 


5HDOWLPH VLPXODWLRQV DV GLVFXVVHG EHIRUH WDUJHW WKH SUHGLFWLRQ RI WKH V\VWHP SHUIRU
PDQFHIRUWKHQHDUIXWXUHLQDWLPHO\PDQQHU&KDQJLQJUHVRXUFHVFKHGXOHVFDQEHGRQH
IRUDKRXUSHULRGLQVHSDUDWHKRXUVKLIWV DOLJQHGZLWKWKHKRVSLWDOVSUDFWLFH VRWKDW
WKH XVHU KDV WKH RSWLRQ WR VHW WKH FXUUHQW VFKHGXOH RI WKH UHVRXUFHV H[WHUQDOO\ ZLWKRXW
FKDQJLQJWKHPRGHO DQGFKHFNIRUWKHVLPXODWHGQHDUIXWXUHSHUIRUPDQFHRIWKHKRVSLWDO
+DYLQJWKHVHWZRILOHVPDNHVWKH$UHQDVLPXODWLRQPXFKPRUHIOH[LEOH WKURXJK
SDUDPHWHUL]DWLRQRIWKHFXUUHQWVWDWHRITXHXHVDQGRIUHVRXUFHVFKHGXOLQJ DQGDPHQDEOH
WRKDQGOLQJUHDOWLPHFRQWH[WV7KHVHILOHVWRJHWKHUZLWKWKHDGGLWLRQDOPRGXOHVIRUVWDWH
ORDGLQJDQGWKHDGGLWLRQDOSURFHVVIRUWKHDXWRPDWLFGHWHUPLQDWLRQRIWKHQXPEHURIUHS
OLFDWLRQVQHHGHGWRDFKLHYHVXLWDEOHSUHFLVLRQ 6HFWLRQ  UHSUHVHQWRULJLQDODQGHV
VHQWLDOLPSURYHPHQWVRYHUW\SLFDOXVDJHVRI$UHQD

 6LPXODWLRQ6HWXS
$VGLVFXVVHGLQ6HFWLRQWKHZDUPXSSHULRGLVE\SDVVHGE\ORDGLQJWKHLQLWLDOVWDWH
RIWKHVLPXODWLRQIURP([FHOILOHV$OORIWKHLQLWLDOL]DWLRQSURFHVVWDNHVSODFHDWWLPH]HUR
RIWKHVLPXODWLRQUXQSUHSDULQJWKHPRGHOWRVWDUWIURPDVWDWHWKDWUHSUHVHQWVWKHDFWXDO
SUHVHQW VWDWH RI WKH KRVSLWDO $OVR WKH UXQ OHQJWK DQG WKH UHSOLFDWLRQ QXPEHU VKRXOG EH
GHFLGHGDFFRUGLQJWRWKHQDWXUHRIWKHV\VWHPXQGHUREVHUYDWLRQDQGWKHGHVLUHGSUHFLVLRQ
OHYHO

 5XQ/HQJWK

7KHOHQJWKRIUXQFKRVHQIRUWKLVFDVHVWXG\ZDVKRXUVLHWZRKRXUVKLIWV$UHQD
UHSRUWVFDOFXODWHWKHZDLWLQJWLPHVSHUDFWLYLW\DIWHUDQHQWLW\LVGRQHSHUIRUPLQJWKHDF
WLYLW\DQGOHDYHVWKHUHODWHGPRGXOH7KHUHSRUWVPLJKWVKRZD]HURYDOXHIRUWKHZDLWLQJ
WLPHRIDQDFWLYLW\IRUWZRUHDVRQV
x (LWKHUWKHUHVRXUFHVZHUHSHUIHFWO\VFKHGXOHGIRUWKHWDVNUHVXOWLQJLQQRZDLW
WLPHRU
x 6RPHSDWLHQWVKDYHVWDUWHGJHWWLQJVHUYHGEXWKDYHQRWILQLVKHGEHLQJVHUYHG
ZLWKLQWKHVLPXODWLRQUXQOHQJWKVRWKHUHLVQRUHFRUGRIZDLWLQJ


&KDSWHU&UHDWLRQRID5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO6LPXODWLRQ6HWXS 


7KHUHIRUHE\FKRRVLQJDUXQOHQJWKORQJHUWKDQWKHPD[LPXPWRWDOGXUDWLRQRIWKHSK\VL
FDODFWLYLW\ ZDLWLQJWLPHSOXVWKHYDOXHDGGHGWLPHRIWKDWDFWLYLW\GXHWRWKHH[SHULHQFH
RIWKH SDWLHQWV ZHFDQ HQVXUH WKDW LIDQ\ SDWLHQW LV UHFHLYLQJ DVSHFLILFVHUYLFHKHVKH
ZLOOEHGRQHE\WKHWLPHWKDWWKHVLPXODWLRQUXQOHQJWKWHUPLQDWHVDQGWKHUHODWHGVWDWLVWLFV
ZLOOEHUHFRUGHG7KHUXQOHQJWKVKRXOGH[FHHGWKHPD[LPXPWRWDOGXUDWLRQRIWKHDFWLYL
W\WKDWLQYROYHVVHL]LQJDUHVRXUFHLQWKHSDWLHQWIORZSURFHVV
,QWKLVFDVHVWXG\WKHPD[LPXPDFWLYLW\GXUDWLRQZDVKRXUV7KHUHIRUHDQ\
UXQ OHQJWK WR EH FKRVHQ VKRXOG H[FHHG WKLV QXPEHU $W WKH VDPH WLPH WKH REMHFWLYH RI
VKRUWWHUP GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ OLPLWV XV IURP SLFNLQJ ORQJ UXQ OHQJWKV HJ  GD\V RU 
ZHHN KRXUVZDVFRQILUPHGWR EHDQDSSURSULDWHWLPHIRUVHWWLQJD UXQ OHQJWK LQ WKLV
FDUGLDFSDWLHQWIORZ

 1XPEHURI5HSOLFDWLRQV

7KHQXPEHURIUHSOLFDWLRQVLVWKHPDLQIDFWRUWKDWGHWHUPLQHVWKHSUHFLVLRQRIWKHRXWSXW
GDWDLQDUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQ 6HFWLRQ ,QDGGLWLRQWKHSUHFLVLRQRIWKHRXWSXWGDWD
LVWKHGHFLVLRQPDNHUVFKRLFH7KHKLJKHUWKHUHSOLFDWLRQQXPEHULVWKHPRUHSUHFLVHWKH
GDWDZLOOEHEXWWKHORQJHUWKHH[HFXWLRQWLPHEHFRPHV7ZRVWDWLVWLFDOWHVWVKDYHEHHQ
LPSOHPHQWHGLQVLGHWKHVLPXODWLRQPRGHOWRGHFLGHRQWKHSUHFLVLRQRIWKHGDWD2QHWHVW
LVWKHFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDORI7KHRXWSXWWKDW$UHQDJHQHUDWHVLVE\GHIDXOWZLWKLQD
FRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDORI>@PHDQLQJWKDWLQRIWKHUHSHDWHGWULDOVWKHPHDQRID
VSHFLILFUHSOLFDWLRQZRXOGEHUHSRUWHGZLWKLQWKHLQWHUYDORIWKHPHDQRIDOOUHSOLFDWLRQV
WKHKDOIZLGWK,IWKHOHQJWKRIUXQLVWRRVKRUWDQGWKHQXPEHURIUHSOLFDWLRQVLVLQVXIIL
FLHQWRULIWKHFROOHFWHGGDWDLVVLJQLILFDQWO\GHSHQGHQWXSRQWKHRWKHURXWSXWPHDQVWKHQ
WKHUHSRUWVZRXOGEHPLVVLQJVRPHGDWDVLQFHWKHGDWDFROOHFWLRQZRXOGQRWEHDGHTXDWHO\
VXIILFLHQW $IWHUWKUHHUHSOLFDWLRQV WKLV LV RXUPLQLPXP WKLVLQWHUYDO FDQEHFRPSXWHG
IRUWKHRXWSXWV
7KH VHFRQG LPSOHPHQWHG VWDWLVWLFDO WHVW LV WKH UHODWLYH PDUJLQ RI HUURU WHVW 7KLV
YDOXHLV FDOFXODWHGWKURXJKWKHDYHUDJH UHODWLYH 02(RIWKHRXWSXWV7KLV YDOXHVKRXOG
QRWH[FHHGRIWKHDYHUDJH02(HUURU$VSHFLILFFRQGLWLRQKDVEHHQVHWLQWKHVLPXOD
WLRQPRGHOWKDWFKHFNVIRUWKHDYHUDJHUHODWLYH02(DIWHUHDFKUHSOLFDWLRQDQGLIWKHFDO
FXODWHG VWDWLVWLFV DUH VXIILFLHQWO\ SUHFLVH ZLWK OHVV WKDQ  HUURU  WKHQ WKH UHSOLFDWLRQV

&KDSWHU&UHDWLRQRID5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO6LPXODWLRQ6HWXS 


ZLOOWHUPLQDWH%DVLFDOO\WKHQXPEHURIWKHUHSOLFDWLRQVGRHVQRWQHHGWREHVHWWRDVSH
FLILFYDOXH,QVWHDGWKLVQXPEHUZLOOEHDGMXVWHGDXWRPDWLFDOO\DFFRUGLQJWRWKHSUHFLVLRQ
UHTXLUHG IRU WKH RXWSXW GDWD 7KLV LV DFKLHYHG LQ $UHQD E\ KDYLQJ DQ REVHUYHU SURFHVV
)LJXUH WKDWPRQLWRUVWKH02(G\QDPLFDOO\DQGGHFLGHVZKHWKHUWRGRDQRWKHUUHSOL
FDWLRQRUVWRSWKHVLPXODWLRQ


)LJXUH $UHQD3URFHVVIRU0RQLWRULQJWKH5HTXLUHG1XPEHURI5HSOLFDWLRQV

$ PD[LPXP QXPEHU RI UHSOLFDWLRQV KDV KRZHYHU EHHQ LPSOHPHQWHG WR FRQVWUDLQ ORQJ
GXUDWLRQVDVZHOODVVLWXDWLRQVZKHUHWKHHUURUOHYHOFDQQRWEHOHVVWKDQ DQGVHWWR
,IDQ\GHILQHGVFHQDULRUHDFKHVWKLVQXPEHURIUHSOLFDWLRQVWKHQWKHUHLVDSRVVLELOLW\RI
OHVVSUHFLVHRXWSXWGDWDIRUWKDWVFHQDULR8VLQJWKLVPHWKRGZHFDQHQVXUHWKDWWKHGH
VLUHG SUHFLVLRQ RI WKH GDWD LV UHDOL]HG WKURXJK WKH PLQLPXP QXPEHU RI UHSOLFDWLRQV VHW
ZLWKWKHORZHVWUXQWLPHIRUVFHQDULRV

 0RGHO9DOLGDWLRQDQG9HULILFDWLRQ
6HYHUDOPHWKRGVZHUHXVHGWRYHULI\WKHVLPXODWLRQPRGHO:HILUVWDXJPHQWHGWKHQXP
EHURIDUULYLQJSDWLHQWV DQG DVH[SHFWHGWKHZDLWLQJWLPHLQFUHDVHG ZKHQ WKHVDPHUH
VRXUFHV ZHUH VFKHGXOHG :H DOVR PDGH FKDQJHV LQ WKH VLPXODWLRQ LQLWLDOL]DWLRQ ILOH LQ
WHUPVRIWKHQXPEHURISDWLHQWVLQWKHTXHXHVDQGWKHGXUDWLRQRIWKHDFWLYLWLHVDQGWKH
H[SHFWHGEHKDYLRXUZDVREVHUYHGZKHQUXQQLQJWKHVLPXODWLRQ$QLPDWLRQRIWKHVLPXOD
WLRQ PRGHO ZKHUH RQH FDQ VHH WKH SDWLHQWV ZDLWLQJ DW SDUWLFXODU WDVNV )LJXUH   DOVR
SURYHGWREHXVHIXOIRUYHULILFDWLRQ
7KHGDWDIHGWRWKLVPRGHOLVQRWGLUHFWO\IURPWKHUHDOGDWD DVWKHUHDOWLPHSD
WLHQWIORZPDQDJHPHQWV\VWHPGHVFULEHGLQ)LJXUHLVQRW\HWLQSODFH DQGDSSUR[LPDWH
EXWUHDOLVWLFGDWDLVXVHG7KLVUHVHDUFKGRHVQRW FRYHUWKHDFWXDOLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRIWKH
UHDOWLPH VLPXODWLRQ IRU WKH PHQWLRQHG KRVSLWDO 7KH PRGHO ZDV RQO\ YDOLGDWHG E\ RQH

&KDSWHU&UHDWLRQRID5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO0RGHO9DOLGDWLRQDQG9HULILFDWLRQ 


PHPEHURIWKHFOLQLFDOVWDIIRIWKH2VOHUKRVSLWDODQGLWZDVHYDOXDWHGWREHUHIOHFWLQJWKH
UHDOFDUGLDFSDWKZD\7KHREMHFWLYHZDVWRXVHDJHQHULFPRGHOIURPDUHDOKRVSLWDODQG
VKRZKRZUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQVFDQEHHIIHFWLYHIRUPDNLQJGHFLVLRQVLQDQHQYLURQPHQW
GHDOLQJZLWKZDLWLQJWLPHLVVXHV)RUWUXO\YDOLGDWLQJWKHPRGHOWKHUHDOWLPHPRQLWRULQJ
V\VWHPVKRXOGZRUNLQSDUDOOHOZLWKWKHUHDOWLPHSDWLHQWIORZPDQDJHPHQWV\VWHP>@


)LJXUH $QLPDWLRQRIWKH6LPXODWLRQ0RGHOIRU9HULILFDWLRQLQ$UHQD

 6XPPDU\
,Q WKLV FKDSWHU WKH FUHDWLRQ RI WKH VLPXODWLRQ PRGHO DQG WKH GHWDLOHG VWHSV RI WKLV ILUVW
SKDVHKDYHEHHQGLVFXVVHGDQGLOOXVWUDWHG$SUREOHPZDVGHILQHGDQGDVLPXODWLRQPRG
HOZDVGHYHORSHGWKURXJKWKHXVHRIDFRQFHSWXDOPRGHO7KHFRQFHSWXDOPRGHOKDVEHHQ
FUHDWHGE\VLPSOLI\LQJDQH[HFXWDEOHEXVLQHVVSURFHVVPRGHORIWKHSDWLHQWIORZ7KHWZR
W\SHVRILQSXWGDWD KLVWRULFDODQGLQLWLDOVWDWH KDYHEHHQFROOHFWHGDQGVHWLQWRH[WHUQDO
ILOHVWKDWIHHGWKHVLPXODWLRQPRGHO$SSURSULDWHUXQOHQJWKDQGUHSOLFDWLRQVZHUHGHFLGHG
IRUWKHVLPXODWLRQPRGHODQGILQDOO\WKHPRGHOKDVEHHQYHULILHGDQGWRVRPHH[WHQWYDO
LGDWHG
%H\RQGWKHPHWKRGRORJ\VWHSVWKHPVHOYHVWKHUHDUHLPSRUWDQWDQGQRYHOIHDWXUHV
GHPRQVWUDWHGKHUH

&KDSWHU&UHDWLRQRID5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO6XPPDU\ 


x 6LPSOLILFDWLRQJXLGHOLQHVWRJRIURPDQH[HFXWDEOH%301SDWLHQWIORZPRGHO
WRDQLQWHUPHGLDWHFRQFHSWXDOPRGHOLQ%301
x &RQVWUXFWLRQJXLGHOLQHVWRJRIURPDFRQFHSWXDOPRGHOWRDQ$UHQDPRGHOWKDW
FDQVXSSRUWUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQ HJZLWKDGGLWLRQDOPRGXOHVIRUVWDWHORDG
LQJ 
x 'HVLJQRIDVLPXODWLRQLQIUDVWUXFWXUHDQGRIWHPSODWHV ([FHOILOHV IRUORDGLQJ
DFXUUHQWVWDWH LQFOXGLQJTXHXHVDQGUHVRXUFHVFKHGXOLQJ LQWRWKHVLPXODWLRQ
PRGHO
x '\QDPLFFRPSXWDWLRQRIWKHUHTXLUHGQXPEHURIUHSOLFDWLRQVWRREWDLQDSDU
WLFXODUFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDODQGPDUJLQRIHUURUZKLFKPLQLPL]HVWKHVLPXOD
WLRQGXUDWLRQ VRPHWKLQJLPSRUWDQWWRHQDEOHUHDOWLPHGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ 

7KHQH[WFKDSWHUFRYHUVWKHVWHSVRIWKHVHFRQGSKDVHRIWKHPHWKRGRORJ\ZKLFKIRFXVHV
RQWKHH[HFXWLRQDQGDQDO\VLVRIWKHVLPXODWLRQPRGHO

&KDSWHU&UHDWLRQRID5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO6XPPDU\ 


&KDSWHU ([HFXWLRQRI6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO

:LWKWKHILUVWSKDVHFRPSOHWHGWKHVHFRQGSKDVHLQYROYHVWKHH[HFXWLRQRIWKHVLPXODWLRQ
PRGHO:KDWLIVFHQDULRVZLOOEHGHILQHGDQGWKHUHVXOWVIURPWKHVFHQDULRVZLOOEHDQD
O\]HGLQRUGHUIRUWKHEHVWDOWHUQDWLYHWREHFKRVHQDVDSRWHQWLDOGHFLVLRQOHDGLQJWRDF
WLRQVIURPWKHGHFLVLRQPDNHU

 5XQQLQJWKH%DVH&DVHDQG:KDWLI6FHQDULRV
7KHVLPXODWLRQPRGHOLVUXQDQGWKHDOWHUQDWLYHVFHQDULRVDUHGHILQHG7KHFUHDWLRQRIGLI
IHUHQWFDQGLGDWHDOWHUQDWLYHVLVVXEMHFWWRWKHFRQILJXUDWLRQRIUHVRXUFHDOORFDWLRQFRPEL
QDWLRQV $OO RI WKH VFHQDULRV SURSRVHG IRU UHDOL]LQJ VKRUWWHUP GHFLVLRQ VXSSRUW LQYROYH
DGMXVWPHQWVLQUHVRXUFHVFKHGXOLQJ
7KHUHPXVWEHFULWHULDDJDLQVWZKLFKWKHHYDOXDWLRQDQGFRPSDULVRQRIWKHDOWHU
QDWLYHUHVXOWVVKRXOGEHGRQH)RUWKLVVWXG\WKHPDLQREMHFWLYHLVWKHUHGXFWLRQRISDWLHQW
ZDLWWLPHVWKHUHIRUHWKLVSDUDPHWHUKDVEHHQWDNHQLQWRDFFRXQWDVRQHRIWKHFRPSDULVRQ
FULWHULD,QRUGHUWRVXJJHVWPRUHUHDOLVWLFDOWHUQDWLYHDFWLRQV DVDUHGXFWLRQLQZDLWWLPHV
FDQQRWEHDFKLHYHGDWDQ\FRVW RWKHUFULWHULDZHUHDOVRVHOHFWHG7KHVHSHUIRUPDQFHPHW
ULFVDUHUHOHYDQWDVWKH\ZLOOEHLQIOXHQFHGE\WKHSDWLHQWZDLWLQJWLPHV$OWHUQDWLYHVDUH
FRPSDUHG DJDLQVWWKHVH GHILQHGFULWHULD DQG XOWLPDWHO\ WKHEHVW RQH ZLOOEHSURSRVHG DV
WKHPRVWHIIHFWLYHDQGIHDVLEOHRQH

 'HILQLQJ&ULWHULD

7KHFULWHULDVKRXOGEHVHWFRQVLGHULQJDOOWKHLPSRUWDQWIDFWRUVWKDWLPSDFWGHFLVLRQPDN
LQJ7KHVHFULWHULDVKRXOGEHDSSURYHGE\WKHGHFLVLRQPDNHUVWKHPVHOYHV)RUWKLVVWXG\
FULWHULDZHUHFKRVHQIRUPHHWLQJWKHPDLQREMHFWLYHRIUHGXFWLRQRISDWLHQWZDLWWLPHDV
ZHOODVWZRRWKHUPDLQIDFWRUVUHODWHGWREXGJHWLVVXHVIRUVWDIIVFKHGXOLQJ7KHVHPHDV
XUDEOHFULWHULDVKRXOGEHFDOFXODWHGIRUWKHEDVHFDVHVFHQDULRDQGWKHDOWHUQDWLYHVFHQDUL
RVDQGHYHQWXDOO\FRPSDUHG

&KDSWHU([HFXWLRQRI6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO5XQQLQJWKH%DVH&DVHDQG:KDWLI6FHQDULRV 


$YHUDJH3DWLHQW:DLWLQJ7LPH
7KHUHDUHVHYHUDOGHILQLWLRQVWKDWVKRXOGEHFODULILHGLQWKLVVWXG\
x /HQJWKRIVWD\7KHWRWDOWLPHWKDWDSDWLHQWVSHQGVIURPWKHPRPHQWLWHQWHUV
WKHIORZXQWLOWKHPRPHQWLWLVGLVFDUGHGIURPWKHIORZ
x ,GHDOOHQJWKRIVWD\7KHWRWDOWLPHWKDWWKHHQWLW\WUDYHOVDQHQWLUHIORZJRLQJ
WKURXJKDOOWKHDFWLYLWLHVDQGHYHQWVLQWKHIORZDVVXPLQJWKDWWKLVHQWLW\LVWKH
RQO\RQHLQWKHZKROHIORZDQGWKHUHLVQRERWWOHQHFN
x $YHUDJHSDWLHQWZDLWLQJWLPH7KLVYDOXHFRUUHVSRQGVWRWKHZDLWLQJWLPHWKDW
D SDWLHQW ZLOO W\SLFDOO\ H[SHULHQFH GXULQJ WKH HQWLUH SURFHVV RI WKH SDWLHQW
IORZ,WFDQEHFDOFXODWHGLQWZRSRVVLEOHZD\V
o )LQGWKHZDLWLQJWLPHIRUHDFKRIWKHSDWLHQWVIRUHDFKRIWKHDFWLYLWLHV
DQG DYHUDJH WKLV TXDQWLW\ RYHU WKH WRWDO QXPEHU RI SDWLHQWV ZKR ZHQW
WKURXJKDOOWKHSURFHVV
o )LQGWKHDYHUDJHZDLWLQJWLPHSHUSDWLHQWIRUHDFKDFWLYLW\DQGWKHQVXP
WKHVHTXDQWLWLHVWRILQGWKHWRWDOSDWLHQWZDLWWLPH

,QDVKRUWWHUPGHFLVLRQPDNLQJSURFHVVWKHLQWHQWLRQLVWREHDEOHWRUXQVKRUWWHUPVLP
XODWLRQVRUUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQVDQGGHFLGHLQYLHZRIQHDUIXWXUHSUHGLFWLRQV7KHUHIRUH
WKH UXQ OHQJWK VKRXOG EH FKRVHQ IRU D VKRUW SHULRG LQ WKH IXWXUH +RZHYHU LI WKH UXQ
OHQJWKLVOHVVWKDQRUHTXDOWRWKHLGHDOOHQJWKRIVWD\WKHQQRHQWLW\ZLOOWUDYHUVHWKHHQ
WLUH IORZ GXULQJ RQH UXQ OHQJWK 0RUHRYHU WR EH DEOH WR FDOFXODWH WKH DYHUDJH ZDLWLQJ
WLPHIURPWKHILUVWDSSURDFKLQWURGXFHGDERYH RQHPXVWKDYHZDLWLQJWLPHLQIRUPDWLRQ
IRUDOOWKHHQWLWLHVWKDWWUDYHUVHGWKHSURFHVVDQGDYHUDJHWKHVHYDOXHV
,Q WKLV FDVH VWXG\ WKH UXQ OHQJWK KDV EHHQ FKRVHQ WR EH  KRXUV ZKLFK LV DOVR
VPDOOHUWKDQWKHLGHDOOHQJWKRIVWD\RIGD\V7KHUHIRUHQRHQWLW\ZLOOFRPSOHWHO\ILQLVK
WKHHQWLUHFDUGLDFSDWKZD\LQRQHVLPXODWLRQUXQ,QRUGHUWRFDOFXODWHWKHDYHUDJHZDLWLQJ
WLPHWKURXJKWKHILUVWSURSRVHGFDOFXODWLRQPHWKRGWKHHQWLWLHVWKDWDUHLQLWLDOL]HGDWWKH
EHJLQQLQJRIWKHVLPXODWLRQUXQVKRXOGFRQWDLQKLVWRULFDOGDWDUHODWHGWRWKHLUZDLWLQJWLPH
H[SHULHQFH LQ WKH SUHYLRXV DFWLYLWLHV 7KLV ZRXOG DOORZ KDYLQJ WKH ZDLWLQJ WLPH LQIRU
PDWLRQRIWKHSDWLHQWVZKRJHWGLVFKDUJHGLQWKHKRXUSHULRGDQGWREHDEOHWRFDOFXODWH
WKHDYHUDJHYDOXH+RZHYHUWKHUHLVRQHGUDZEDFNWRWKLVDSSURDFK7KHQXPEHURISD

&KDSWHU([HFXWLRQRI6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO5XQQLQJWKH%DVH&DVHDQG:KDWLI6FHQDULRV 


WLHQWV ZKRJRWKURXJKDOO WKHSURFHVV DQG JHW GLVFKDUJHG IURP &: LQ DVKRUWSHULRGRI
WLPH LQRXUFDVHKRXUV LVORZDQGWKHUHIRUHWKHDYHUDJHZDLWLQJWLPHZLOOEHFDOFXODW
HGEDVHGRQDIHZSDWLHQWVZKLFKZLOOUHTXLUHDODUJHUQXPEHURIUHSOLFDWLRQVLQRUGHUWR
EHFRPHUHOLDEOHHQRXJKWREDVHRXUGHFLVLRQVRQ
+HQFHWKHVHFRQGPHWKRGIRUFDOFXODWLQJSDWLHQWZDLWLQJWLPHKDVEHHQXVHG,Q
WKLVPHWKRGWKHDYHUDJHZDLWLQJWLPHIRUHDFKDFWLYLW\LVILUVWFDOFXODWHGDQGWKHQWKHVH
YDOXHVDUHVXPPHGXSWRFDOFXODWHWKHWRWDOZDLWLQJWLPHSHUSDWLHQW,IDOORIWKHHQWLWLHV
JRWKURXJKDQHQWLUHIORZWKHQERWKRIWKHFDOFXODWLRQPHWKRGV SURSRVHGEHIRUHVKRXOG
VKRZWKHVDPHUHVXOW7KLVPHDQVWKDWWKHDYHUDJHRIWKHVXPVLVHTXDOWRWKHVXPRIWKH
DYHUDJHVDQGWKLVFDQEHGHPRQVWUDWHGPDWKHPDWLFDOO\
/HWXVDVVXPHWKDWWKHUHLVDPDWUL[GHILQHGZLWK;QPDVWKHHOHPHQWVLQGLFDWLQJ
WKHZDLWLQJWLPHRISDWLHQWQIRUDFWLYLW\PZLWK3WR3QUHIHUULQJWRWKHGLIIHUHQWSDWLHQWV
IURPWRQ




$VGLVFXVVHGSUHYLRXVO\RQHZD\WRILQGWKHDYHUDJHZDLWLQJWLPHLVWRVXPXSDOORIWKH
HOHPHQWV LQ HDFKURZ ZDLWLQJWLPHRIHDFKSDWLHQW VSHQWGXULQJ DQHQWLUHSDWLHQW IORZ 
DQGWKHQGLYLGHWKHVXPRIWKRVHYDOXHVZLWKQZKLFKLVWKHQXPEHURISDWLHQWV
  

 




$YHUDJHZDLWLQJWLPH  





$QRWKHUPHWKRGLVWRVXPXSHDFKFROXPQYDOXHV WKHZDLWLQJWLPHVSHUDFWLYLW\ DQGGL
YLGHWKHYDOXHIURPHDFKFROXPQE\WKHQXPEHURISDWLHQWV Q DQGILQDOO\DGGDOOWKHYDO
XHV

&KDSWHU([HFXWLRQRI6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO5XQQLQJWKH%DVH&DVHDQG:KDWLI6FHQDULRV 



  


  



  


$YHUDJHZDLWLQJWLPH 
 







0DWKHPDWLFDOO\ WKHVH WZR UHVXOWV VKRZ WKH VDPH YDOXH GXH WR WKH FDOFXODWLRQV DERYH
+RZHYHULIDPRQJWKHHOHPHQWVRIWKLVPDWUL[DQ\RIWKHYDOXHVLVPLVVLQJWKHQWKHTXR
WLHQWVZLOOGLIIHU)RULQVWDQFHLIRQHRIWKHHOHPHQWVLQWKHILUVWFROXPQFDQQRWEHFDOFX
ODWHG WKHQ WKH DYHUDJH RI WKH YDOXHV ZLOO EH RYHU Q SDWLHQWV UDWKHU WKDQ Q SDWLHQWV ,I
WKHUHLV DQ\ZDLWLQJWLPHYDOXH SHUSDWLHQW SHUDFWLYLW\ WKDW FDQQRW EHFDOFXODWHGLQ WKLV
PDWUL[WKHQWKHVXPRIWKHDYHUDJHVPD\QRWEHHTXDOWRWKHDYHUDJHRIWKHVXPV7KHUH
IRUHWKHWZRPHWKRGVRIFDOFXODWLQJWKHZDLWLQJWLPHZRXOGKDYHGLIIHUHQWUHVXOWV
7KHILUVWPHWKRGRIFDOFXODWLRQRIWKHZDLWLQJWLPHVZDVQRWDSSOLFDEOHWRRXUFDVH
GXHWRWKHWLPHUHVWULFWLRQVH[SODLQHGDERYH7KXVWKHVHFRQGPHWKRGRIFDOFXODWLRQZDV
FKRVHQ IRU FDOFXODWLQJ WKH ZDLWLQJ WLPH +RZHYHU WKLV YDOXH GRHV QRW SUHVHQW WKH WRWDO
DYHUDJHSDWLHQW ZDLWLQJWLPHDVLWV GHILQLWLRQUHSUHVHQWV ,QVWHDGLW VXPV XSWKHDYHUDJH
ZDLWLQJWLPHRIDOORIWKHDFWLYLWLHVSHUSDWLHQW

7RWDO&RVW
7KHWRWDOFRVWLVDQLPSRUWDQWIDFWRUIRUPDNLQJGHFLVLRQVIRUVWDIIVFKHGXOLQJLQDKRVSL
WDO7KHSDWLHQWZDLWLQJWLPHPD\EHGHFUHDVHGZLWKDSURSHUUHVRXUFHVFKHGXOLQJDQGDS
SURSULDWH DOORFDWLRQ RI FOLQLFDO VWDII %XW WKHUH LV DOZD\V D OLPLWDWLRQ WR WKH DPRXQW RI
VXSSO\WKDWFDQEHSURYLGHGIRUVHUYLQJWKHSDWLHQWV$OWKRXJKUHGXFWLRQRISDWLHQWZDLW

&KDSWHU([HFXWLRQRI6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO5XQQLQJWKH%DVH&DVHDQG:KDWLI6FHQDULRV 


LQJWLPHLVWKHXOWLPDWHREMHFWLYHRIWKLVFDVHVWXG\H[SHQVHVDQGEXGJHWOLPLWDWLRQVZHUH
DOVRFKRVHQWREHDFULWHULRQLQWKHGHFLVLRQPDNLQJSURFHVV
:H DUH FDWHJRUL]LQJ WKH SD\PHQW UHJXODWLRQV IRU DOO W\SHV RI UHVRXUFHV LQWR WZR
JURXSV)RUVRPHRIWKHUHVRXUFHV EHGVSK\VLFLDQVHWF WKHFRVWZRXOGEHSHUHDFKUH
VRXUFHXVH$VIRUWKHUHVWRIWKHUHVRXUFHV ('QXUVHFOHUNVHWF WKH\DUHDVVXPHGWR
JHWSDLGRQDQKRXUO\EDVLV7KHVDODULHVKDYHEHHQDSSUR[LPDWHGDQGDUHQRW IURPWKH
UHDOKRVSLWDOGDWD

3HUFHQWDJHRI3DWLHQWV'LVFKDUJHG
)LQDOO\IRUWKHEXGJHWLVVXHVWREHFRPHPRUHPHDQLQJIXOWKHODVWFULWHULRQFKRVHQLVWKH
SHUFHQWDJH RI WKH SDWLHQWV ZKR JHW GLVFKDUJHG 7KLV YDOXH FDQ LQGLUHFWO\ UHSUHVHQW WKH
SUHGLFWLRQRIKRVSLWDOUHYHQXHVLQDVKRUWWHUPIXWXUHSHULRG7KHSURILWWKDWWKHKRVSLWDO
PDNHVLVFDOFXODWHGWKURXJKVXEWUDFWLRQRIWKHFRVWVIURPWKHUHYHQXHV7KHPRUHSDWLHQWV
DUH GLVFKDUJHG LQ D JLYHQ SHULRG RI WLPH WKH KLJKHU WKH UHYHQXHV RI WKH KRVSLWDO 7KH
VFKHGXOLQJ RI PRUH VWDII PLJKW KRZHYHU UHVXOW LQ KLJKHU H[SHQVHV $ GHFLVLRQ PDNHU
VKRXOG FRQVLGHU WKH UHYHQXHV WKDW WKH KRVSLWDO JDLQV LQ D VKRUWWHUP SHULRG DQG FKHFN
ZKHWKHUWKHVHUHYHQXHVRXWZHLJKWKHFRVWVVSHQWIRUUHVRXUFHVFKHGXOLQJ7KHFDOFXODWLRQ
IRUWKLVFULWHULRQZDVGRQHWKURXJKWKHIROORZLQJIRUPXOD

3HUFHQWDJHRI'LVFKDUJHG3DWLHQWV 


 

 %DVH&DVH6LPXODWLRQ5XQDQG5HVXOWV

7KH EDVHFDVH VFHQDULR LV WKH LQLWLDO FDVH WKDW VKRXOG EH REVHUYHG 7KH SUHVHQW SHUIRU
PDQFHRIWKHKRVSLWDOZDVVHWLQWRWKHVLPXODWLRQPRGHODQGWKHLPSDFWRIFXUUHQWRSHUD
WLRQRIWKHKRVSLWDODVLWZDVRQWKHKRXUIXWXUHWLPHIUDPHZDVREVHUYHG(YDOXDWLQJ
DOWHUQDWLYH VFHQDULRV VKRXOG EH GRQH ZKHQ WKH EDVHFDVH OHDGV WR XQVDWLVIDFWRU\ SHUIRU
PDQFHUHVXOWV7KHVHZKDWLIVFHQDULRVVKRXOGEHFRPSDUHGZLWKWKHEDVHFDVHVFHQDULR
6RPHSUHGHILQHGDQGFXVWRPL]HGVWDWLVWLFDOUHSRUWVDUHJHQHUDWHGXVLQJWKH$UHQDVLPXOD
WLRQ WRRO $OWKRXJK WKH GHWDLOHG FDOFXODWLRQV RI HDFK RI WKH SHUIRUPDQFH FULWHULD LV QRW
QHFHVVDU\IRUGHILQLQJVFHQDULRVDQGRQO\WKHRXWSXWUHVXOWVDUHRIFRQFHUQZHZLOOEULHI
O\GLVFXVVWKHGHWDLOHGUHVXOWVIURPZKLFKWKHRXWSXWGDWDZDVFDOFXODWHG

&KDSWHU([HFXWLRQRI6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO5XQQLQJWKH%DVH&DVHDQG:KDWLI6FHQDULRV 


7DEOHVKRZVWKHILQDOSHUIRUPDQFHPHWULFVIRUWKHEDVHFDVHVFHQDULR7KHDY
HUDJHZDLWWLPHLVLQKRXUVZKLOHWKHWRWDOUHVRXUFHFRVWVDUHLQGROODUV

7DEOH )LQDO$YHUDJH9DOXHVRIWKH2XWSXWV


7KHDYHUDJHZDLWLQJWLPHRIWKHSDWLHQWVSHUDFWLYLW\ZLOOEHKRXUVLQWKHQH[WWZR
VKLIWV KRXUV 7KHDYHUDJHZDLWLQJWLPHSHUHDFKLQGLYLGXDODFWLYLW\SHUSDWLHQWLVJLYHQ
LQ7DEOHZKHUHWKHDFWLYLWLHVWKDWDUHPDLQO\FDXVLQJWKHZDLWLQJWLPHVDUHL ZDLWLQJ
IRUEHGLL GHOD\VLQUHFHLYLQJWKHODEWHVWUHVXOWVLLL GLDJQRVLVDQGLY (&*


7DEOH $YHUDJH:DLWLQJ7LPHRI3DWLHQWVSHU(DFK$FWLYLW\




&KDSWHU([HFXWLRQRI6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO5XQQLQJWKH%DVH&DVHDQG:KDWLI6FHQDULRV 


7KHSHUFHQWDJHRIWKHSDWLHQWVGLVFKDUJHGIURP('DQG&:LVDSSUR[LPDWHO\ LH
  ,QGLYLGXDOGLVFKDUJHFRXQWHUVZHUHVHWIRU('DQG&:DQG7DEOH
VKRZVWKHLUUHVXOWV

7DEOH 1XPEHURI3DWLHQWV'LVFKDUJHGIURP('DQG&:


7KHUH DUH GLIIHUHQW W\SHV RI FRVWV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK UHVRXUFH XVDJH  VKRZV WKH GHWDLOHG
FRVWVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKGLIIHUHQWUHVRXUFHV
$IWHU WKH EDVHFDVH VFHQDULR LV VHW DQG WKH FULWHULD KDYH EHHQ HYDOXDWHG IRU WKLV
FDVHWKHQH[WVWHSLVWRILJXUHRXWGLIIHUHQWSRVVLEOHDOWHUQDWLYHVFHQDULRVIRUUHVRXUFHDO
ORFDWLRQLQRUGHUWRFRPSDUHWKHFDQGLGDWHDOWHUQDWLYHVDJDLQVWWKHEDVHFDVH

 :KDW,I6FHQDULR5XQVDQG5HVXOWV

:KDWLIVFHQDULRVDUHGLIIHUHQWDOWHUQDWLYHDFWLRQVWKDWFRXOGEHWDNHQIRUUHVRXUFHVFKHG
XOLQJZLWKLQWKHQH[W IHZKRXUVLQ WKHQHDUIXWXUH7KHDOWHUQDWLYHVFHQDULRVDUHUXQWR
SUHGLFWSRVVLEOHRXWFRPHVRIWKHKRVSLWDOSHUIRUPDQFHXQGHUFHUWDLQFLUFXPVWDQFHV7KH
WUDGHRIIVEHWZHHQWKHGLIIHUHQW EXVLQHVV RXWFRPHV ZLOOEHDVVHVVHGDQG WKHEHVW RSWLRQ
ZLOOEHFKRVHQ DPRQJWKHSRVVLEOHDOWHUQDWLYHV LQFOXGLQJVWDWXV TXRUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH
EDVHFDVH $UHQDSURYLGHVWZRH[WHUQDODSSOLFDWLRQVIRUVXSSRUWLQJWKHGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ
SURFHVV3URFHVV$QDO\]HU 3$1 DQG2SW4XHVW

'HILQLQJ:KDWLI6FHQDULRVXVLQJ3$1
7KH3URFHVV$QDO\]HULVDQH[WHUQDODSSOLFDWLRQLQ$UHQDWKDWLVXVHGWRPDQXDOO\VHWDQG
UXQZKDWLIVFHQDULRVWREHFRPSDUHGE\WKHLURXWFRPHUHVXOWV
 

&KDSWHU([HFXWLRQRI6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO5XQQLQJWKH%DVH&DVHDQG:KDWLI6FHQDULRV 


7DEOH 7RWDO5HVRXUFH&RVWV


:H KDYH FKRVHQ GLIIHUHQW UHVRXUFH FDSDFLWLHV IRU GLIIHUHQW W\SHV RI UHVRXUFHV WKDW ZHUH
DYDLODEOH HJ('QXUVHVDQGEHGV DQGZHFKHFNHGWKHLPSDFWRIFKDQJLQJWKHLUFDSDFL
W\RQWKHSHUIRUPDQFHPHWULFVVHWSUHYLRXVO\7KHFDSDFLWLHVDUHFKDQJHDEOHZLWKLQHDFK
VKLIW7KHUHIRUHVLQFHRXUSUHGLFWLRQKRUL]RQKDVEHHQVHWWRKRXUV HTXDOWRWZRVKLIWV 
ZHFDQKDYHWZRFDSDFLW\YDOXHV ILUVWDQGWKHVHFRQGVKLIWV VHWIRUHDFKUHVRXUFHW\SH

&KDSWHU([HFXWLRQRI6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO5XQQLQJWKH%DVH&DVHDQG:KDWLI6FHQDULRV 


7DEOH :KDWLI6FHQDULR5XQ5HVXOWV

&KDSWHU([HFXWLRQRI6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO5XQQLQJWKH%DVH&DVHDQG:KDWLI6FHQDULRV 


,QWHUSUHWDWLRQRI6RPHRIWKH6FHQDULR5HVXOWV
7DEOH VKRZV WKHUHVXOWV RIYDULRXVZKDWLIVFHQDULRVWKDWZHKDYHGHILQHG 'LIIHUHQW
QXPEHUV RI UHSOLFDWLRQV ZHUH DXWRPDWLFDOO\ DVVLJQHG WR WKH VFHQDULRV GHSHQGLQJ RQ WKH
SUHFLVLRQRIWKHRXWSXWGDWDQHHGHGWRPHHWWKHGHVLUDEOHHUURUOHYHORIOHVVWKDQ RQ
DYHUDJH
7KHILUVWVFHQDULRLVWKHEDVHFDVHVFHQDULRZKLFKLVWKHQRDFWLRQVFHQDULR,Q
WKHWKLUGVFHQDULR('SK\VLFLDQVKDYHEHHQDGGHGDQGWKHZDLWLQJWLPHKDVGHFUHDVHG
E\ DSSUR[LPDWHO\  KRXUV  PLQXWHV  +RZHYHU WKLV FRQILJXUDWLRQ KDV FDXVHG WKH
SHUFHQWDJH RI GLVFKDUJHG SDWLHQWV WR EH ORZHU (YHQ WKRXJK WKH (' WDVNV UHODWHG WR WKH
('SK\VLFLDQVZLOOOHDGWRVPDOOHUZDLWLQJWLPHVWKHPHGLFDOWHVWV (&*EORRGWHVWDQG
;UD\ GRQHE\WKH('QXUVHZLOOFDXVHDGHOD\LQWKHGLVFKDUJHRIWKHSDWLHQWVIURP('
6FHQDULRVKRZVWKDWWKHUHPRYDORID&:QXUVHZLOOQRWFDXVHDQ\FKDQJHLQWHUPVRI
WKHZDLWLQJWLPHDQGZLOOGHFUHDVHWKHFRVWRIWKHUHVRXUFHVZKLOHNHHSLQJWKHQXPEHURI
SDWLHQWVGLVFKDUJHGDWWKHVDPHOHYHO FRPSDUHGWRWKHEDVHFDVH 6FHQDULRVKRZVWKDW
E\DGGLQJRQHPRUHSK\VLFLDQVDQGRQH&&/VXUJHRQWKHZDLWLQJWLPHZLOOEHGHFUHDVHG
E\DOPRVWKRXUZKLOHFDXVLQJWKHWRWDOUHVRXUFHFRVWVWRGHFUHDVHDQGWKHSHUFHQWDJHRI
GLVFKDUJHGSDWLHQWVWRULVHE\DOPRVW7KLVFRQILJXUDWLRQKDVFDXVHGWKHLGOHFRVWRI
WKHQXUVHVWRGHFUHDVHVLQFHWKH\ZLOOEHEXVLHU(YHQWXDOO\WKHODVWVFHQDULRVKRZVWKH
SRVVLELOLW\RIDFRQILJXUDWLRQWKDWFDQFDXVHWKHZDLWLQJWLPHWREHKRXUVDWWKHFRVWRI
DOPRVWPRUHWKDQWKHEDVHFDVHVFHQDULR

$GYDQWDJHRI'HILQLQJ6FHQDULRVWKURXJKD+ROLVWLF3RLQWRI9LHZ
7KHPDLQJRDOZKLOHGHILQLQJWKHVFHQDULRVZDVWRUHGXFHWKHSDWLHQWZDLWLQJWLPHE\DG
MXVWLQJ WKH QXPEHU RI UHVRXUFHV 7KH GHILQHG VFHQDULRV FDQ EH UXQ YHU\ TXLFNO\ HYHU\
UHSOLFDWLRQ WDNHV DERXW  VHFRQG  ZKLFK HQDEOHV WKH GHFLVLRQ PDNHU WR HYDOXDWH DQG
FRPSDUHPDQ\DOWHUQDWLYHVFHQDULRVLQDGYDQFH7KHGHFLVLRQVDUHPDGHWKURXJKDPRUH
KROLVWLFYLHZRIWKHGLIIHUHQW KRVSLWDO GHSDUWPHQWV LQYROYHGLQWKHFDUHSURFHVV0DNLQJ
GHFLVLRQVDWDKROLVWLFOHYHOSULRULWL]HVWKHRYHUDOOSHUIRUPDQFHLPSURYHPHQWDQGSUHYHQWV
RQHGLPHQVLRQDOORFDORSWLPL]DWLRQV)RULQVWDQFHLQWKLVFDVHVWXG\WKHZDLWLQJWLPHIRU
EHGVLVDSSUR[LPDWHO\KRXUVZKLFKLQWKHRU\LVWKHWLPHWKDWSDWLHQWVVSHQGLQ('EH
IRUHJHWWLQJDGPLWWHGWR&:2SHQLQJPRUHEHGVPLJKWUHPRYHWKHERWWOHQHFNIURPWKLV
DFWLYLW\EXW FDXVHVWKH ERWWOHQHFNVWR EHSXVKHGWRWKHDFWLYLWLHVLQ &:DQGHYHQWXDOO\

&KDSWHU([HFXWLRQRI6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO5XQQLQJWKH%DVH&DVHDQG:KDWLI6FHQDULRV 


FDXVLQJ OLWWOH FKDQJH LQ WKH RYHUDOO ZDLWLQJ WLPH $OO RI WKH DGGUHVVHG LVVXHV ZLWKLQ WKH
VFRSHRIWKHGHILQHGSUREOHPFRXOGEHPDQDJHGWKURXJKDQDO\VLVRIWKHSUHGLFWHGRXWSXW
RIWKHVFHQDULRV
7KHRXWSXWFULWHULDVKRXOGEHWKHLPSRUWDQWIDFWRUVXSRQZKLFKWKHGHFLVLRQPDNHU
QHHGV WR HYDOXDWH WKH VFHQDULRV DQG GHFLGH 7KHVH FULWHULD FRXOG EH DV QXPHURXV DV WKH
GHFLVLRQ PDNHU UHTXLUHV DQG IHHOV FRPIRUWDEOH ZLWK ZKLOH PDNLQJ GHFLVLRQV +RZHYHU
WKHSURFHVVRIGHFLVLRQPDNLQJPD\WDNHPRUHWLPHLIDODUJHQXPEHURIFULWHULDDUHWDNHQ
LQWRFRQVLGHUDWLRQ ,QWKLVFDVHXVLQJ2SW4XHVW ZRXOGEHPRUHDSSURSULDWHDQGEHQHIL
FLDO

2SWLPL]LQJWKH6LPXODWLRQ5HVXOWVXVLQJ2SW4XHVW
,QFDVHRIODUJHQXPEHURIFULWHULDIRUDVVHVVLQJWKHVFHQDULRUHVXOWVDQDXWRPDWHGVHDUFK
DSSURDFKFDQEHXVHGYLD2SW4XHVWDQH[WHUQDODSSOLFDWLRQLQ$UHQD7KLVRSWLPL]HUXVHV
PHWDKHXULVWLFPHWKRGVWRILQGWKHEHVWVROXWLRQDFFRUGLQJWRDQREMHFWLYHIXQFWLRQDQGD
VHWRIFRQVWUDLQWVGHILQHGSULRUWRRSWLPL]DWLRQUXQV$QREMHFWLYHIXQFWLRQFDQEHIRUH[
DPSOHDPLQLPL]DWLRQRIZDLWLQJWLPHV&RQVWUDLQWVFDQEHWKHOLPLWDWLRQVIDFHGLQWHUPV
RIWKHUHVRXUFHFDSDFLW\DYDLODEOH7KLVRSWLPL]HUVHDUFKHVWKURXJKSRVVLEOHDOWHUQDWLYHV
DQG FRQVLGHUV GLIIHUHQW FRPELQDWLRQV RI UHVRXUFH DOORFDWLRQ DXWRPDWLFDOO\ XQWLO D WHUPL
QDWLQJFRQGLWLRQRFFXUV7KHPRUHUXQVDUHH[HFXWHGWKHPRUHDOWHUQDWLYHVFHQDULRVFDQ
EHHYDOXDWHG+RZHYHUWLPHLVDQLPSRUWDQWIDFWRULQUXQQLQJWKHVFHQDULRVDQGVKDOOQRW
EHLJQRUHGLQWKHSURFHVVRIVKRUWWHUPGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ
7DEOH  VKRZV WKH UHVXOW RI WKH VHDUFK ZLWK 2SW4XHVW 7KH VFHQDULRV DUH OLVWHG
ZLWKWKHEHVWVFHQDULRDWWKHWRSLHWKHRQHZLWKWKHPRVWGHVLUDEOHYDOXHIRUWKHREMHF
WLYHIXQFWLRQWKDWVDWLVILHVDOOWKHFRQVWUDLQWV LHWKDWLVIHDVLEOH 
7KHDGYDQWDJHRIXVLQJWKHRSWLPL]HULVWKDWWKHQXPEHURISRVVLEOHVFHQDULRVWR
EHFKHFNHGLVKLJKHUWKDQZKHQWKHVFHQDULRVDUHPDQXDOO\VHWLQWR3$17KHUHLVDOVRWKH
SRVVLELOLW\ RI FRPLQJ XS ZLWK D VROXWLRQ WKDW LV IHDVLEOH DQG DIIRUGDEOH WKDW QRUPDOO\
PLJKWQRWRFFXUWRPLQG7KHGUDZEDFNLVWKHWLPHLWWDNHVIRUWKHRSWLPL]HUWRUXQDQG
SURYLGHWKHUHVXOWV$OVRXVLQJWKHRSWLPL]HUZRXOGQRWDOORZWKHXVHUWRFKHFNDVSHFLILF
FDQGLGDWHVFHQDULR
 

&KDSWHU([HFXWLRQRI6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO5XQQLQJWKH%DVH&DVHDQG:KDWLI6FHQDULRV 


7DEOH 2SW4XHVW2SWLPL]LQJ2XWSXW5HVXOWV


&KDSWHU([HFXWLRQRI6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO5XQQLQJWKH%DVH&DVHDQG:KDWLI6FHQDULRV 


 2XWSXW$QDO\VLV0DNLQJ'HFLVLRQVDQG7DNLQJ$FWLRQV
)URPWKHOLVWRIIHDVLEOHVFHQDULRVWKHWZRRUWKUHHEHVWRQHVDUHSUHVHQWHGWRWKHGHFLVLRQ
PDNHU7KHGHFLVLRQPDNHUVKRXOGPDNHWKHILQDOGHFLVLRQFRQVLGHULQJWKHWUDGHRIIVEH
WZHHQWKHEHVWVFHQDULRRXWFRPHV7KHFKRVHQVFHQDULRLVWKHVFHQDULRWKDWOHDGVWRDUH
GXFWLRQLQWKHWRWDOSDWLHQWZDLWLQJWLPHZLWKDUHDVRQDEOHUHVRXUFHFRVWWKDWZLOOEHFRP
SHQVDWHGZLWKDODUJHUSHUFHQWDJHRIWKHSDWLHQWVGLVFKDUJHGIURPWKHKRVSLWDO

 6XPPDU\
7KHH[HFXWLRQRIWKHUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQPRGHORIWKHFDUGLDFSDWKZD\DW2VOHUKRVSLWDO
ZDVGLVFXVVHGDQGDOWHUQDWLYHVFHQDULRVZHUHGHILQHGDQGHYDOXDWHG:HKDYHVSHFLILFDO
O\IRFXVHGRQDKROLVWLFRSWLPL]DWLRQDSSURDFKUDWKHUWKDQDORFDORSWLPL]DWLRQE\FRQVLG
HULQJWKHGHILQHGFULWHULDFDOFXODWHGIRUDOORIWKHXQLWVLQYROYHGLQWKHSDWLHQWFDUHSUR
FHVV8VLQJWKLVDSSURDFKWKHDYHUDJHZDLWLQJWLPHRIDFWLYLWLHVSHUSDWLHQWLVPLQLPL]HG
ZLWKRXWSXVKLQJWKHERWWOHQHFNVWRRWKHUXQLWVRIWKHKRVSLWDO
3$1 ZLOO JLYH WKH GHFLVLRQ PDNHU DQ RSSRUWXQLW\ WR GHYHORS VSHFLILF VFHQDULRV
DQGHYDOXDWHWKHLUUHVXOWVFRPSDUHGWRWKHEDVHFDVHVFHQDULR7KLVFDQEHGRQHTXLFNO\
2QHRIWKHGLVDGYDQWDJHVRIXVLQJ3$1LVWKDWWKHQXPEHURIVFHQDULRVWKDWFDQPDQXDOO\
EHVHWLVOLPLWHGWRWKHXVHUVVHOHFWLRQ2SW4XHVWKRZHYHUJLYHVWKHXVHUDZLGHUYDULHW\
RIRSWLRQVE\DXWRPDWLFDOO\VHDUFKLQJWKURXJKWKHSRVVLEOHIHDVLEOHVFHQDULRV+RZHYHU
2SW4XHVWVPDLQGUDZEDFNLVWKHWLPHUHTXLUHGIRUVHWWLQJDQGUXQQLQJDOOWKHVFHQDULRV
XVLQJDQRSWLPL]DWLRQPDWKHPDWLFDOPRGHODQGWKHIDFWWKDWWKHXVHUZLOOQRWEHDEOHWR
HYDOXDWHDVSHFLILFVFHQDULRKHVKHKDVLQPLQG8VLQJHLWKHURIWKHDSSURDFKHVIRUILQGLQJ
WKHEHVWVFHQDULRVWKHHIIHFWVRILPSOHPHQWLQJDQXPEHURIDOWHUQDWLYHVLVHYDOXDWHGDQG
WKHXVHULVDOORZHGWRWKLQNDERXWWKHFRQVHTXHQFHVRIDOWHUQDWLYHDFWLRQVSULRUWRRFFXU
UHQFHRIERWWOHQHFNVDQGPDNHWKHULJKWGHFLVLRQLQDGYDQFH
1RWH DOVR WKDW 3$1 DQG 2SW4XHVW DUH KRZHYHU QRW PXWXDOO\ H[FOXVLYH 6HYHUDO
VSHFLILF VFHQDULRV FRXOG EH LQYHVWLJDWHG ZLWK 3$1 ZKLOH 2SW4XHVW FRXOG EH XVHG LQ D
FRPSOHPHQWDU\ZD\WRVHHZKHWKHUDGGLQJIHDVLEOHVFHQDULRVVKRXOGEHFRQVLGHUHG
7KHQH[WVHFWLRQZLOOGLVFXVVWKHRYHUDOOHYDOXDWLRQRIWKLVUHVHDUFK

&KDSWHU([HFXWLRQRI6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO2XWSXW$QDO\VLV0DNLQJ'HFLVLRQVDQG7DNLQJ$FWLRQV 


&KDSWHU &RPSDULVRQ

&KDSWHU  KLJKOLJKWHG WZR H[LVWLQJ DSSURDFKHV WKDW DLPHG WR VXSSRUW UHDOWLPH VLPXOD
WLRQV WR HQDEOH VKRUWWHUP GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ 0DUPRU HW DO >@ DQG 5R]LQDW HW DO>@
7KH IROORZLQJ VHFWLRQV SUHVHQW D GHWDLOHG GLVFXVVLRQ RI WKHVH UHODWHG DSSURDFKHV DQG
FRPSDUHWKHLUVWUHQJWKVDQGWKHZHDNQHVVHVZLWKWKHRQHGHYHORSHGLQWKLVWKHVLV*HQHUDO
WKUHDWVWRWKHYDOLGLW\RIWKLVUHVHDUFKDUHDOVRGLVFXVVHG

 2EMHFWLYHVDQG6FRSHV
0DUPRUHWDO>@IRFXVRQRQOLQHSUHGLFWLRQRIQHDUIXWXUHVWDWHVZLWKWKHREMHFWLYHRI
DGMXVWLQJUHVRXUFHVFKHGXOLQJLQHPHUJHQF\GHSDUWPHQWVIRUW\SHVRISDWLHQWVLQWKH('
RIDKRVSLWDO7KH\PHQWLRQHGWKDWDIWHUWKHSDWLHQWVDUHGRQHZLWKWKHLU FDUHSURFHVVLQ
('VRPHQHHGWREHWUDQVIHUUHGWRZDUGV+RZHYHUPRVWRIWKHWLPHVWKHZDUGVDUHIXOO
DQGSDWLHQWVHQGXSZDLWLQJLQWKH('DUHD7KLVZDLWLQJWLPHZDVQRWUHFRUGHGDQGLWDOVR
FDXVHGIXUWKHULVVXHVOLNHFRQJHVWLRQLQ('WKDWFRXOGQRWEHFDSWXUHGLQWKHPRGHO7KH
DSSURDFKLVNQRZQDVUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQEHFDXVHWKHVLPXODWLRQPRGHOLVIHGZLWKUHDO
WLPHDUULYDOGDWDRIWKHSDWLHQWVWRWKH('DQGWKLVLQIRUPDWLRQLVWDNHQIURPWKHKRVSLWDO
HOHFWURQLFGDWDEDVHZLWKHYHU\SDWLHQWUHJLVWUDWLRQ
5R]LQDWHWDO>@LQWHJUDWHDZRUNIORZPDQDJHPHQWV\VWHPDQGDVLPXODWLRQV\V
WHPWRHQDEOHRSHUDWLRQDOGHFLVLRQPDNLQJUDWKHUWKDQORQJWHUPVWUDWHJLFGHFLVLRQPDN
LQJ$FUHGLWFDUGDSSOLFDWLRQSURFHVVKDVEHHQPRGHOHGLQWKLVVWXG\7KHFRQVHTXHQFHV
RIPDNLQJFKDQJHVLQWKHUHVRXUFHVFKHGXOLQJKDYHEHHQFKHFNHGDQGWKHWKURXJKSXWWLPH
RIWKHFUHGLWFDUGDSSOLFDWLRQZDVFDOFXODWHG7KHVWXG\GRHVQRWKDYHDVSHFLILFIRFXVRQ
WKHKHDOWKFDUHFRQWH[WZKHUHKXPDQUHODWHGDFWLYLWLHVDUHPXFKPRUHFRPSOH[
,Q RXU VWXG\ WKH UHDOWLPH VLPXODWLRQ PRGHO LV ZLWKLQ WKH FRQWH[W RI KHDOWKFDUH
DQGXQOLNHERWKRIWKHDERYHVWXGLHVWKHVFRSHRIWKHGHILQHGSUREOHPLVRQLQWHUUHODWHG
GHSDUWPHQWVRIDKRVSLWDOIRURQHW\SHRISDWLHQWV FDUGLDFSDWLHQWV ZLWKSULRULW\OHYHOV
LQWHUPVRIKRZVHYHUHWKHLUKHDOWKSUREOHPVDUH$QHQWLUHFOLQLFDOSDWKZD\ZDVFKRVHQ

&KDSWHU&RPSDULVRQ2EMHFWLYHVDQG6FRSHV 


IRUWKLVVWXG\IURPWKHWLPHWKHSDWLHQWHQWHUVWKH('WRWKHPRPHQWKHVKHLVPRYHGWR
WKH&:DQGILQDOO\GLVFKDUJHG7KLVEURDGVFRSHRIWKHVWXG\SUHYHQWVVRPHLQDFFXUDFLHV
IRXQGLQ0DUPRUHWDO0RUHRYHUWKHFUHGLWFDUGSURFHVVWKDWZDVPRGHOHGE\5R]LQDWHW
DOLVQRWDQH[DFWUHDOOLIHSURFHVVZKHUHDVLQWKLVVWXG\ZHKDYHXVHGWKHUHDOOLIHFOLQL
FDOSDWKZD\RIFDUGLDFSDWLHQWVRIDFRPPXQLW\KRVSLWDO

 :DUP8SLQ5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQV
,QWKHVWXG\GRQHE\0DUPRUHWDO>@WKHLQLWLDOVWDWHRIWKHVLPXODWLRQLVWKHVWDWHDIWHU
WKHVLPXODWLRQUXQSDVVHVWKHWUDQVLHQWVWDWH,QRUGHUWRDWWHPSWWRRYHUFRPHWKHZDUPXS
SHULRG WKLV VWXG\ IHHGV WKH VLPXODWLRQ PRGHO ZLWK UHDOWLPH DUULYDO GDWD RI WKH SDWLHQWV
DQGUXQVWKHVLPXODWLRQPRGHOIRUDORQJSHULRGRIWLPH DOPRVWFRQWLQXRXVO\ 
5R]LQDWHWDO>@XVHD3HWULQHWEDVHGVLPXODWLRQPRGHO7KH\LQMHFWWKHFXUUHQW
VWDWHLQIRUPDWLRQUHSRUWHGIURPDZRUNIORZPDQDJHPHQWV\VWHPWRRYHUFRPHWKHZDUP
XSSHULRG7KHHYHQWORJVDQGWKHVLPXODWLRQORJVDUHLQWKHVDPHIRUPDW
0DUPRU HW DO VXJJHVW WKH QRUPDO RYHUFRPLQJ DSSURDFK IRU WKH ZDUPXS SHULRG
IRUWKHLUUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQPRGHO7KHZDUPXSSHULRGGLIIHUVIURPUXQWRUXQGHSHQG
LQJRQWKHVHWWLQJRIWKHPRGHODQGWKHGDWDLQSXW7KLVSHULRGLVUHTXLUHGWREHFDOFXODWHG
EHIRUHHDFKUXQXQOHVVWKHVLPXODWLRQLVUXQQLQJDXWRPDWLFDOO\QRQVWRS$QRWKHUGUDZ
EDFNLVWKDWDOWKRXJKWKHSXUSRVHLVWREHDEOHWRPDNHVKRUWWHUPSUHGLFWLRQVWKHVLPX
ODWLRQPRGHOVKRXOGUXQIRUDVXIILFLHQWO\ORQJSHULRGRIWLPHWREHUHIOHFWLQJWKHFXUUHQW
VWDWHWKHQWKHGDWDFROOHFWHGZLOOEHUHOLDEOH5R]LQDWHWDOE\SDVVWKHZDUPXSSHULRGE\
VWDUWLQJ WKH VLPXODWLRQ IURP D SUHGHILQHG VWDWH WKDW LV EDVLFDOO\ WKH FXUUHQW VWDWH RI WKH
SURFHVVLQUHDOLW\
,QRXUDSSURDFKZLWK WKHREMHFWLYHRIHQDEOLQJVKRUWWHUP GHFLVLRQPDNLQJ ZH
FRXOG QRW DIIRUG WKH H[LVWHQFH RI D ZDUPXS SHULRG IRU HYHU\ VLPXODWLRQ UXQ :H RYHU
FDPHWKHZDUPXSSHULRGE\KDYLQJDVLPXODWLRQPRGHOZKRVHV\VWHPVFXUUHQWVWDWHFDQ
EH ORDGHG G\QDPLFDOO\ )RU LPSOHPHQWLQJ UHDOWLPH VLPXODWLRQ IHDWXUHV 5R]LQDW HW DO
KDYH GHYHORSHG WKHLU RZQ ODQJXDJH DQG ILQDOO\ KDYH XVHG 3HWULQHWV IRU PRGHOLQJ WKHLU
VLPXODWLRQ ZLWK WKH &31 WRRO :H KDYH XVHG GLVFUHWH HYHQW VLPXODWLRQV XVLQJ $UHQD



KWWSFSQWRROVRUJ

&KDSWHU&RPSDULVRQ:DUP8SLQ5HDO7LPH6LPXODWLRQV 


Y ZKLFK GLG QRW VXSSRUW ORDGLQJ WKH LQLWLDO VWDWH FDSDELOLWLHV RXW RI WKH ER[ DQG ZH
FDPHXSZLWKDQRYHODSSURDFKIRUORDGLQJWKHLQLWLDOVWDWHWRRXUPRGHO

 5XQ6HWXSDQG:KDW,I6FHQDULRV
%RWKRIWKHVWXGLHVGRQHE\5R]LQDWHWDO>@DQG0DUPRUHWDO>@KLJKOLJKWWKHLP
SRUWDQFH RI VKRUWWHUP GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ ZKLFK UHTXLUH VKRUWWHUP SUHGLFWLRQV RI QHDU
IXWXUHVLWXDWLRQV+RZHYHU0DUPRUHWDOPXVWILUVWUXQWKHVLPXODWLRQIRUDORQJHQRXJK
SHULRGRIWLPHWRRYHUFRPHWKHZDUPXSSHULRGZKLFKLVFRQWUDGLFWLQJWKHREMHFWLYHRI
VKRUWWHUP GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ 7KH\ XVHG  UHSOLFDWLRQV IRU UXQQLQJ WKHLU VLPXODWLRQ
PRGHO7KH\KDYHDOVRQRWPHQWLRQHGDQ\VSHFLILFVWDWLVWLFDOWHVWVIRUFDOFXODWLQJWKHSUH
FLVLRQRIWKHRXWSXWGDWD0DUPRUHWDOXVHWZRPDWKHPDWLFDOUHVRXUFHDOORFDWLRQVWUDWH
JLHVDQGWKHLUUHVXOWVKDYHEHHQVHWDVGLIIHUHQWSRVVLEOH IL[HG VFHQDULRV5R]LQDWHWDO
GHILQHG IRXU VLPXODWLRQ VFHQDULRV DQG UXQ WKHP IRU WZR ZHHNV LQWR WKH IXWXUH ZLWK 
UHSOLFDWLRQVHDFK7KHUHVXOWVZHUHREVHUYHG ZLWKDFRQILGHQFHOHYHORIZKLOHLQL
WLDOO\NHHSLQJWKHVDPHQXPEHURIUHVRXUFHVDQGDIWHUZDUGVDGGLQJPRUHUHVRXUFHV
:HKDYHXVHGWKHWHUPLQRORJ\ VKRUWWHUPLQDGLIIHUHQWPDQQHUDVRSSRVHGWR
WKHRQHVGHVFULEHGLQWKHDERYHVWXGLHV6KRUWWHUPSUHGLFWLRQVVKRXOGRFFXUIRUDVKRUW
SHULRGRIWLPHLQWKHIXWXUHGHSHQGLQJRQWKHW\SHRIV\VWHPVVLPXODWHG)RULQVWDQFHLQ
RXUFDVH FDUGLDFSDWKZD\ WKHVKRUWWHUPSUHGLFWLRQFRXOGVWDUWIURPKRXUVPLQLPXP
DQGGD\PD[LPXPWRHQVXUHWKHSRVVLELOLW\RIDGMXVWLQJUHVRXUFHVFKHGXOLQJLQWKHQHDU
IXWXUH ,Q KHDOWKFDUH HQYLURQPHQWV WKH G\QDPLF QDWXUH RI WKH DFWLYLWLHV DQG HYHQWV LQ
YROYHGZRXOGFRQWLQXRXVO\FKDQJHWKHVWDWHRIWKHKRVSLWDODQGIRUDORQJSHULRGRIWLPH
LQWKHIXWXUHWKHRXWSXWGDWDZRXOGQRWEHXVHIXODQ\PRUH0RUHRYHULQRXUVWXG\WKHUH
LV DQ HPSKDVLV RQ H[HFXWLQJ WKH UHDOWLPH VLPXODWLRQ RQ D F\FOLF EDVLV HJ HYHU\ 
KRXUV IRUPD[LPL]LQJWKHREMHFWLYHRIWKHVWXG\ GHFUHDVHSDWLHQWZDLWLQJWLPH 
5R]LQDWHWDOPHQWLRQHGWKH\KDYHGHILQHGWKHFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOIRUVSHFL
I\LQJWKHYDULDWLRQLQWKHLURXWSXWUHVXOWVEXWZLWKRXWGLVFXVVLQJWKHPDUJLQRIHUURU,Q
RXUVWXG\ZHFRXOGQRWDIIRUGORQJVLPXODWLRQUXQVFDXVHGE\DODUJHQXPEHURIUHSOLFD
WLRQV $W WKH VDPH WLPH WKH SUHFLVLRQ RI WKH RXWSXW GDWD ZDV RI FRQFHUQ DV ZHOO $SDUW
IURPWKHFRQILGHQFHOHYHORIFDOFXODWHGIRUWKHRXWSXWGDWDZHLPSOHPHQWHGDQDX
WRPDWHG RXWSXW SUHFLVLRQ FDOFXODWRU ZKLFK WHUPLQDWHV WKH QXPEHU RI UHSOLFDWLRQV LI WKH

&KDSWHU&RPSDULVRQ5XQ6HWXSDQG:KDW,I6FHQDULRV 


DYHUDJH UHODWLYH 02( RI WKH RXWSXWV LV OHVV WKDQ  :LWK WKLV OHYHO RI SUHFLVLRQ EH
WZHHQDQGUHSOLFDWLRQVZHUHUHTXLUHGIRUGLIIHUHQWVFHQDULRVWKDWZHGHILQHGZLWK
HYHU\UHSOLFDWLRQWDNLQJDURXQGVHFRQGV8VLQJWKLVDSSURDFKZHFDQPDNHVXUHWKDW
ZHKDYHVXIILFLHQWSUHFLVLRQZLWKWKHPLQLPXPQXPEHURIUHSOLFDWLRQVUHTXLUHGWRPDNH
WKHSURFHVVRIUXQQLQJVFHQDULRVDVTXLFNDVSRVVLEOH

 9DOLGDWLRQRIWKH0RGHO
0DUPRU HW DO >@ YDOLGDWHG WKHLU VLPXODWLRQ RXWSXW GDWD DJDLQVW WKH KRVSLWDO GDWDEDVH
FRPSDULQJ WKH UHDO SHUIRUPDQFH RI WKH KRVSLWDO ZLWK WKH SHUIRUPDQFH SUHGLFWHG E\ WKH
VLPXODWLRQ PRGHO LQ D QRDFWLRQ VFHQDULR 5R]LQDW HW DO >@ FRXOG QRW JHW D UHDOOLIH
SURFHVVWRFRPSDUHWKHLUVLPXODWLRQPRGHODJDLQVW
,Q RXU VWXG\ WKH PRGHO ZDV FRQILUPHG E\ DQ H[SHUW IURP WKH KRVSLWDO WR EH UH
IOHFWLQJWKHKRVSLWDOSHUIRUPDQFHEXWDGHWDLOHGYDOLGDWLRQDSSURDFKZDVQRWWDNHQGXHWR
SULYDF\UHODWHGOLPLWDWLRQVLQDFFHVVLQJWKHSDWLHQWLQIRUPDWLRQGDWDEDVH6XFKYDOLGDWLRQ
FRXOGKRZHYHUEHGRQHLQVLGHDKRVSLWDOHQYLURQPHQW

 'LVFXVVLRQ
7DEOH  VSHFLILHV WKH FRPSDULVRQ RI RXU ZRUN ZLWK WKH WZR PRVW UHODWHG ZRUN DV DQ
RYHUYLHZ:HKDYHWDNHQDFOLQLFDOSURFHVVIRULPSOHPHQWLQJUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQPRGHO
0DUPRUHWDO>@DOVRXVHDFOLQLFDOSURFHVVKRZHYHUWKH\GRQRWWDNHDFRPSOHWHHQGWR
HQGFOLQLFDOSURFHVV0RUHRYHUWKHLUSURFHVVLVOLPLWHGWRWKHERXQGDULHVRIDQ(',QRXU
VWXG\DVZHOODVWKHVWXG\GRQHE\5R]LQDWHWDO>@WKHLQLWLDOVWDWHRIWKHV\VWHPLVEH
LQJORDGHGSULRUWRHDFKVLPXODWLRQUXQVRWKDWWKHZDUPXSSHULRGLVE\SDVVHG7KHSHUL
RGRIKRXUVLQIXWXUH KDVEHHQFRQVLGHUHGDV DVKRUWWHUPREMHFWLYH LQWKHVWXG\ FRQ
GXFWHGE\0DUPRUHWDO>@ZKHUHDVDSHULRGRIWZRZHHNVLVNQRZQDVDVKRUWWHUPIRU
WKHFUHGLWFDUGSURFHVVXQGHUREVHUYDWLRQLQWKHUHVHDUFKGRQHE\5R]LQDWHWDO>@(DFK
RIWKHWZRUHODWHGVWXGLHVSHUIRUPDQGUHSOLFDWLRQVIRUHDFKVFHQDULRZKLFKGHIL
QLWHO\WDNHVPXFKPRUHWLPHUDWKHUWKDQZKHQWKHUHSOLFDWLRQVDUHDXWRPDWHGWRVDWLVI\D
VSHFLILFSUHFLVLRQ7KHLPSDFWRIOLPLWHGQXPEHURIVFHQDULRVLVFKHFNHGDVZKDWLIVFH
QDULRVLQERWKRIWKHUHODWHGVWXGLHV:HKDYHSHUIRUPHGVFHQDULRVDQGRXUDSSURDFKLV

&KDSWHU&RPSDULVRQ9DOLGDWLRQRIWKH0RGHO 


PRUHIOH[LEOHWRSHUIRUPDVPDQ\VFHQDULRVDVUHTXLUHG1RQHRIWKHWKUHHVWXGLHVKDVDF
WXDOO\LPSOHPHQWHGWKHZKDWLIVFHQDULRVLQWKHUHDOZRUOGSURFHVV%RWKRXUVLPXODWLRQ
PRGHODQGWKHRQHIURP0DUPRUHWDO>@ZHUHYDOLGDWHGWREHVXIILFLHQWO\UHIOHFWLQJWKH
UHDOZRUOGSURFHVV

7DEOH &RPSDULVRQZLWK5HODWHG:RUN
Load Bypass
Clinical Entire Run Replication Fixed Implement Validate
Initial Warm-
Process Process length Number Scenarios scenarios Model
State up
Marmor
1 Yes No No No 8 Hrs 100 Yes/2 No Yes
et al. [29]
Rozinat
2 No Yes Yes Yes 2 Wks 50 No/4 No No
et al. [39]
This
3 Yes Yes Yes Yes 8 Hrs Automated No/13 No Yes
thesis

 /LPLWDWLRQVDQG7KUHDWVWR9DOLGLW\
7KHUH ZHUH VHYHUDO OLPLWDWLRQV DQG WKUHDWV WR YDOLGLW\ LQ FRQGXFWLQJ RXU UHVHDUFK 7KH
WKUHDWVFDQEHUHYLHZHGLQWKUHHGLIIHUHQWFDWHJRULHVDVVXJJHVWHGE\3HUU\HWDO>@
x &RQVWUXFW YDOLGLW\ 6SHFLILHV KRZ ZHOO WKH FDVH VWXG\ DQVZHUHG WKH UHVHDUFK
TXHVWLRQ
x ,QWHUQDOYDOLGLW\([DPLQHVDQ\ELDVDQGFRQIRXQGLQJIDFWRUV
x ([WHUQDOYDOLGLW\6SHFLILHVKRZPXFKRIWKHUHVXOWVFDQEHJHQHUDOL]HG

 &RQVWUXFW9DOLGLW\

:HKDYHQRW XVHGWKHH[DFW UHDO GDWDIRUIHHGLQJRXUVLPXODWLRQ PRGHODQG LQVWHDGZH


KDYHXVHGDSSUR[LPDWH EXWUHDOLVWLF GDWD7KHPDLQUHDVRQLVEHFDXVHRIWKHFRQILGHQWL
DOLW\RIWKHKRVSLWDOVSDWLHQWLQIRUPDWLRQ7KHGDWDFROOHFWHGZDVSDUWLDOO\WDNHQIURPWKH
KRVSLWDOGDWDEDVHDQGWKHUHVWZDVREWDLQHGE\LQGLUHFWO\LQWHUYLHZLQJDGRPDLQH[SHUWRI
WKHKRVSLWDOZKRKDVEHHQLQYROYHGLQWKHFDUHSURFHVVZHZHUHLQWHUHVWHGLQ
7KH DFWXDO LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI WKH FUHDWHG VLPXODWLRQ PRGHO ZDV QRW GRQH LQ WKH
PHQWLRQHGKRVSLWDO7KHUHIRUHHYHQLIWKHUHDOWLPHGDWDZDVDYDLODEOHIRULQMHFWLRQLQWKH
VLPXODWLRQPRGHOZHVWLOOQHHGWRLPSOHPHQWWKHPRGHODQGDFWXDOO\UXQLWLQWKHKRVSLWDO
DQGYDOLGDWHWKHUHVXOWV

&KDSWHU&RPSDULVRQ/LPLWDWLRQVDQG7KUHDWVWR9DOLGLW\ 


+RZHYHUQRWHWKDWWKHIRFXVRIWKHWKHVLVZDVPRUHDERXWWKHSURFHVVRIFUHDWLQJ
DQGH[SORLWLQJUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQVLQKHDOWKFDUHDQGDERXWGHPRQVWUDWLQJWKHLUSRWHQWLDO
WKDQLQXVLQJWKHPWRVROYHDVSHFLILFSUREOHPLQDUHDOHQYLURQPHQW
$OVRWKHSURFHVVHVLQYROYHGLQFOLQLFDOHQYLURQPHQWVDUHXVXDOO\RIDFRPSOH[QD
WXUHEHFDXVHDPDMRULW\RIWKHLUWDVNVDUHKXPDQUHODWHG,QPRVWVLPXODWLRQVWXGLHVLWLV
DVVXPHGWKDWWKHUHVRXUFHVDUHIXOO\GHGLFDWHGWRWKHSDWLHQWIORZSURFHVVDQGLIWKH\DUH
VFKHGXOHGDQGDUHLGOHWKH\ZLOOVWDUWWKHLUWDVNULJKWDZD\,QUHDOOLIHKRZHYHUWKLVLV
QRW WKH FDVH DQG KHQFH WKH H[DFW EHKDYLRXU RI WKH UHVRXUFHV LV FRPSOH[ WR FDSWXUH LQ D
VLPXODWLRQ PRGHO,QRXUFDVHVWXG\ZHFRXOG QRW DGGUHVV WKLVSUREOHPEXW ZHWULHGWR
DGMXVWWKHPRGHOWRWKHUHDOLW\E\VHWWLQJGHOD\VWKDWXVXDOO\RFFXULQRXUSDWLHQWIORZSUR
FHVV

 ,QWHUQDO9DOLGLW\

7KHFRQFHSWXDOPRGHOZDVEXLOWIURPDEXVLQHVVSURFHVVPRGHODQGZDVWKHQPDSSHGWRD
VLPXODWLRQPRGHO$GGLWLRQDOGDWDZDVLQMHFWHGWRWKHVLPXODWLRQPRGHODIWHUZDUGV6LQFH
WKHVLPXODWLRQPRGHOKDVEHHQFUHDWHGEDVHGRQD%30PRGHOZHKDYHDVVXPHGWKDWWKH
%30PRGHOLVLWVHOIDYDOLGDQGUHOLDEOHPRGHO1RWHWKDWWKHVRXUFH%30PRGHOZDVQRW
FUHDWHGE\WKHWKHVLVDXWKRUEXWE\IHOORZVWXGHQWVEDVHGRQDQHDUOLHUYHUVLRQGHYHORSHG
E\2VOHUQXUVHV6RPHELDVZDVKHQFHPLWLJDWHGDWWKDWOHYHO

 ([WHUQDOYDOLGLW\

:HKDYHVHOHFWHGRQO\RQHSDWLHQWIORZLQRXUFDVHVWXG\WRH[SORUHWKHIHDVLELOLW\RIRXU
UHVHDUFK TXHVWLRQ :H FDQQRW \HW JHQHUDOL]H RXU ZRUN LQFOXGLQJ WKH VLPSOLILFDWLRQ DQG
FRQYHUVLRQ JXLGHOLQHV  WR DOO WKH V\VWHPV WKDW SURYLGH FOLQLFDO VHUYLFHV DQG DUH GHDOLQJ
ZLWKUDQGRPDUULYDORIWKHSDWLHQWV+RZHYHUWKLVSURFHVVLVEHOLHYHGWREHUHSUHVHQWDWLYH
RIPDQ\RWKHUW\SHVRIKHDOWKFDUHSURFHVVHVDQGWKHVHOHFWHGKRVSLWDO 2VOHU LVDOVRUHS
UHVHQWDWLYHRIPDQ\&DQDGLDQKHDOWKFDUHLQVWLWXWLRQV<HWWKLVZRUNVKRXOGEHUHSOLFDWHG
ZLWKPRUHSURFHVVHVLQGLIIHUHQWKRVSLWDOVWRDXJPHQWWKHOHYHORIFRQILGHQFHLQLWVFRQ
FOXVLRQV

&KDSWHU&RPSDULVRQ/LPLWDWLRQVDQG7KUHDWVWR9DOLGLW\ 


 6XPPDU\
:HKDYHFRPSDUHGRXUZRUNZLWKWZRFORVHO\UHODWHGDSSURDFKHV DQGZHDUHQRWDZDUH
RIRWKHUVXFKDSSURDFKHV DQGWKHLUZHDNQHVVHVDQGVWUHQJWKVKDYHEHHQGLVFXVVHG7KH
FRQWULEXWLRQV RI WKLV UHVHDUFK DUH XQLTXH LQ WKHLU GHSWK DQG HIILFLHQF\ IRU WKH SURSRVHG
VFRSH UHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQVIRUKHDOWKFDUHSURFHVVHV <HWVHYHUDOWKUHDWVWRWKHYDOLGLW\
RIRXUUHVHDUFKH[LVWDQGKDYHEHHQGLVFXVVHG
7KHQH[WDQGILQDOFKDSWHUZLOOFRQFOXGHWKHWKHVLVDQGLGHQWLI\IXWXUHZRUNLWHPV

&KDSWHU&RPSDULVRQ6XPPDU\ 


&KDSWHU &RQFOXVLRQV

7KLVFKDSWHUJRHVEDFNWRWKHLQLWLDOUHVHDUFKTXHVWLRQDQGUHFDOOVWKHPDLQFRQWULEXWLRQV
RIWKLVWKHVLV6XJJHVWLRQVIRUIXWXUHZRUNDUHDOVRGLVFXVVHG

 &RQWULEXWLRQV
7KHUHVHDUFKTXHVWLRQDGGUHVVHGLQWKLVWKHVLV 6HFWLRQ ZDV,VWKHUHDOWLPHVLPXOD
WLRQRIFOLQLFDOSURFHVVHVIHDVLEOHLQWKHFRQWH[WRIDSDWLHQWFDUHSURFHVVZLWKZDLWWLPH
SUHGLFWLRQV UHSUHVHQWHG LQ D ZD\ WKDW VXSSRUWV VKRUWWHUP RSHUDWLRQDO GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ
UHODWHGWRUHVRXUFHDOORFDWLRQ"
:HEHOLHYHWKDWWKHZRUNGRQHLQWKHWKHVLVDQGWKHFRQWULEXWLRQVPDGHDORQJWKH
ZD\UHVXOWLQDSRVLWLYHDQVZHUWRWKLVTXHVWLRQ
,QWKLVWKHVLVWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRIUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQVLQKHDOWKFDUHIRUVKRUWWHUP
GHFLVLRQPDNLQJKDVEHHQLQYHVWLJDWHG$QHQWLUHFOLQLFDOSDWKZD\IRUFDUGLDFSDWLHQWVRI
DFRPPXQLW\KRVSLWDOKDVEHHQPRGHOHG$FRQFHSWXDOPRGHOKDVEHHQFUHDWHGIRUIDFLOL
WDWLQJ WKH SURFHVV RI VLPXODWLRQ PRGHOLQJ 6RPH KHOSIXO JXLGHOLQHV ZHUH XVHG WR WUDQV
IRUPD%301RSHUDWLRQDOPRGHORIWKHSDWLHQWIORZWRDVLPXODWLRQPRGHO$OVRRWKHU
LQIRUPDWLRQZDVDGGHGWRWKHVLPXODWLRQPRGHOWRHQDEOHORDGLQJRIWKHFXUUHQWVWDWHRI
WKHKRVSLWDOLQWRWKHPRGHO$QH[WHUQDOILOHSRSXODWHVWKHVLPXODWLRQPRGHOZLWKKLVWRUL
FDOGDWDDQGWKHLQLWLDOVWDWHGDWD7KHPRGHOVWDUWVH[HFXWLQJIURPWKHLQLWLDOVWDWHORDGHG
WR WKH VLPXODWLRQ PRGHO DW WKH EHJLQQLQJ RI HYHU\ UHSOLFDWLRQ 7KH PRGHO LV VHW XS WR
PDNHSUHGLFWLRQVRYHUDVKRUWSHULRGRIWLPHLQWKHIXWXUHDQGFROOHFWVVWDWLVWLFDOGDWDRI
LQWHUHVW UHJDUGLQJ WKH QHDUIXWXUH VWDWH RI WKH KRVSLWDO $IWHUZDUGV VRPH SHUIRUPDQFH
PHWULFV DUH GHILQHG IRU D TXDQWLWDWLYH FRPSDULVRQ DPRQJ GLIIHUHQW SRVVLEOH DOWHUQDWLYH
DFWLRQV WKDW FRXOG EH WDNHQ 7KH DOWHUQDWLYH VFHQDULRV DOVR NQRZQ DV ZKDWLI VFHQDULRV
DUHUXQDQGZLOOVKRZWKHSUHGLFWHGLPSDFWRIDQ\GHFLVLRQPDGHLQWKHSUHVHQWWLPHRQ
WKHIXWXUHVWDWHRIWKHKRVSLWDO7KHWUDGHRIIVUHODWHGWRWKHYDULHW\RISHUIRUPDQFHPHW
ULFVVKRXOGEHPRQLWRUHGDQGDQDO\]HG7KHGHFLVLRQPDNHU SRVVLEO\DVHQLRUQXUVH LV

&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQV&RQWULEXWLRQV 


WKHQDEOHWRPDNHTXLFNIHDVLEOHDQGWLPHO\GHFLVLRQVIRUWKHQHDUIXWXUHEDVHGRQWKH
LQIRUPDWLRQ SURYLGHG WKURXJK UXQQLQJ ZKDWLI VFHQDULRV 7KH FRPSOHPHQWDU\ XVH RI DQ
RSWLPL]HUZDVDOVRH[SORUHGDORQJWKHZD\
2XU DSSURDFK SHUIRUPV ZHOO FRPSDUHG WR FORVHO\UHODWHG DSSURDFKHV DQG DOVR
DJDLQVW PRVW KHDOWKFDUH VLPXODWLRQ DSSURDFKHV LQ JHQHUDO 7DEOH  SURYLGHV RQH DGGL
WLRQDOURZIRU7DEOH WKHVXPPDU\RIUHODWHGZRUN WKDWFDSWXUHVWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRI
WKHZRUNGRQHLQWKLVWKHVLV

7DEOH 7KHVLV$SSURDFK
Real-
Type
time Effec- Patient Actual Simula- Data
Article / of Model
Country Scope imple- tive wait time hospi- tion collec-
Source simu- V&V
menta- in DM issue tal tool tion
lation
tion
ED & Partial-
This thesis Canada DES Yes Yes Yes Yes Arena 2
CW ly

7KH PDLQ FRQWULEXWLRQ RI WKLV WKHVLV LV WKH DSSOLFDWLRQ RI UHDOWLPH VLPXODWLRQV IRU VXS
SRUWLQJ VKRUWWHUP GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ UHODWHG WR SDWLHQW FDUH SURFHVVHV LQ D WLPHO\ ZD\
7KHUHDUHDOVRVHYHUDOPLQRUFRQWULEXWLRQVWKDWZHUHSURYLGHGWKURXJKWKLVUHVHDUFKZRUN
x :HKDYHGHILQHGDPHWKRGRORJ\WKDWFDQKHOSUHDOL]HUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQFD
SDELOLWLHVIRUVXSSRUWLQJGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ
x :HKDYHDOVR XVHGWKHUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQ PHWKRGRORJ\LQ DFDVHVWXG\ IRU
DVVHVVLQJLWVYDOLGLW\7KURXJKWKLVSUDFWLFDOZRUNZHDGGHGUHDOWLPHVLPXOD
WLRQ FDSDELOLWLHV HJ LQLWLDO VWDWH RI TXHXHV DQG UHVRXUFH VFKHGXOLQJ  WR D
OHDGLQJVLPXODWLRQWRROWKDWGLGQRWVXSSRUWWKHUHTXLUHGUHDOWLPHIHDWXUHVLQ
WKHILUVWSODFH
x :H KDYH GHYHORSHG DQG WHVWHG JXLGHOLQHV WKDW H[SODLQ KRZ ZH FDQ UHXVH D
%30PRGHOWRFRQVWUXFWDFRQFHSWXDOPRGHODQG PDSWKDWFRQFHSWXDOPRGHO
WRDVLPXODWLRQPRGHO
x 'XH WR VKRUWWHUP GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ UHTXLUHPHQWV ZH KDYH VXJJHVWHG DQ DS
SURDFKWKURXJKZKLFKWKHQXPEHURIVLPXODWLRQUHSOLFDWLRQVLVDGMXVWHGDXWR
PDWLFDOO\IRUHDFKVHWRIVLPXODWLRQUXQVEDVHGRQWKHGHVLUDEOHSUHFLVLRQRI
WKHRXWSXWGDWD

&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQV&RQWULEXWLRQV 


x 8VLQJUHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQVZHVKRZHGWKDWZHFDQKDYHDPRUHIUHTXHQWSHU
IRUPDQFHHYDOXDWLRQRIWKHV\VWHPXQGHUREVHUYDWLRQ LQRXUFDVHDKRVSLWDO 
E\UXQQLQJWKHVLPXODWLRQ LQ DWLPHO\PDQQHU:HKDYHDOVR GHILQHGZKDWLI
VFHQDULRV ZLWK GLIIHUHQW UHVRXUFH VFKHGXOLQJ FRPELQDWLRQV DQG ZH KDYH RE
VHUYHGWKHLPSDFWRIHDFKVFHQDULRRQWKHIXWXUHVWDWHRIWKHFDUHSURFHVVVR
VXSSRUWGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ

7KLV WKHVLV KDVKHQFHDGYDQFHGNQRZOHGJHRQWKHDSSOLFDELOLW\RI UHDOWLPHVLPXODWLRQV
IRU KHDOWKFDUH E\ SURYLGLQJ DQ DSSURDFK VXSSRUWHG E\ JXLGHOLQHV DQG WRROV IRU PRGHO
FRQVWUXFWLRQ DQG DQDO\VLV ZLWK D VDPSOH FDVH VWXG\ LOOXVWUDWLQJ ERWK WKH XVDJH RI WKHVH
JXLGHOLQHVDQGWKHRYHUDOOIHDVLELOLW\RIWKHDSSURDFK

 )XWXUH:RUN
)XWXUH ZRUN LWHPV LQFOXGH DQ LQWHJUDWLRQ RI %30SRZHUHG PRQLWRULQJ V\VWHP ZLWK WKH
VLPXODWLRQ WRRO WR DXWRPDWLFDOO\ IHHG WKH KLVWRULFDO DQG LQLWLDO VWDWH GDWD 7KH KLVWRULFDO
GDWD VKRXOG EH FROOHFWHG IURP WKH GDWDEDVH WKDW FROOHFWV UHDOWLPH SURFHVV LQIRUPDWLRQ
DERXWSDWLHQWVDQGVKRXOGEHWUDQVIRUPHGWRVWDWLVWLFDOGLVWULEXWLRQVSULRUWRORDGLQJ7KH
FROOHFWLRQDQGLQMHFWLRQRIWKHUHDOGDWDWRWKHVLPXODWLRQPRGHOVKRXOGEHWULJJHUHGSHUL
RGLFDOO\IROORZHGE\DQDXWRPDWHGDFWLYDWLRQRIVFHQDULRUXQV,QDGGLWLRQXVDELOLW\VWXG
LHVVKRXOGEHFRQGXFWHGWREHWWHUHYDOXDWHWKHZRUN
$QDXWRPDWHGGHFLVLRQVXSSRUWV\VWHPWKDWFDQGHILQHDQGHYDOXDWHGLIIHUHQWVFH
QDULRV DQG SUHVHQW WKH EHVW DOWHUQDWLYHV ZRXOG PDNH WKH SURFHVV RI GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ
TXLFNHUDQGHDVLHU0DQXDOO\VHWWLQJWKHVFHQDULRVGRHVQRWQHFHVVDULO\UHVXOWLQWKHEHVW
IHDVLEOHLPSOHPHQWDWLRQDOWHUQDWLYHVWKXVXVLQJDQRSWLPL]HUFDQEURDGHQWKHYDULHW\RI
VFHQDULR HYDOXDWLRQ $OVR WKH WLPH UHTXLUHG IRU VHWWLQJ XS DQG UXQQLQJ DQ RSWLPL]DWLRQ
VKRXOGEHFRQVLGHUHGEHFDXVHRIWKHFRQVWUDLQWVLPSRVHGE\VKRUWWHUPGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ
,Q WKH H[SHULPHQW ZH KDYH RQO\ FRQVLGHUHG WKH ZDONLQ FDUGLDF SDWLHQWV RI WKH
KRVSLWDO7KHVFKHGXOHGSDWLHQWVVKRXOGDOVREHFRQVLGHUHGZKLOHPRGHOLQJWRUHIOHFWWKH
UHDOLW\RIWKHFDUHSURFHVVHVEHWWHUDQGWRLQFUHDVHWKHUHOLDELOLW\RIWKHRXWSXWUHVXOWVRI
VLPXODWLRQV

&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQV)XWXUH:RUN 


)LQDOO\DOWKRXJKDUHDOFDUGLDFFOLQLFDOSDWKZD\KDVEHHQXVHGZLWKUHDOLVWLFGDWD
DQGDPRGHOYDOLGDWHGE\DGRPDLQH[SHUWDGGLWLRQDOYDOLGDWLRQQHHGVWREHGRQHEHIRUH
JHQHUDOL]LQJWKHUHVXOWVDQGGHSOR\LQJWKLVDSSURDFKLQKRVSLWDOV

&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQV)XWXUH:RUN 


5HIHUHQFHV

>@ $OYDUH]$DQG&HQWHQR0(QKDQFLQJ6LPXODWLRQ0RGHOVIRU(PHUJHQF\
5RRPV8VLQJ9%$VW:LQWHU6LPXODWLRQ&RQIHUHQFH :6& YRO$&0
SS
>@ %DKUDQL6%RXJXHQJ570RXWWKDP$DQG$P\RW'5HDOWLPH6LPXODWLRQV
WR6XSSRUW2SHUDWLRQDO'HFLVLRQ0DNLQJLQ+HDOWKFDUH6XPPHU&RPSXWHU6LPX
ODWLRQ&RQIHUHQFHDQG:RUNLQ3URJUHVV 6&6&DQG:,3 6LPXODWLRQ
6HULHV9RO&XUUDQ$VVRFLDWHV,QF-XO\SS
>@ %DUMLV-3RWHQWLDOVDQG&KDOOHQJHVRI+HDOWKFDUH0RGHOLQJDQG6LPXODWLRQ
6&6&3URFHHGLQJVRIWKH6XPPHU&RPSXWHU6LPXODWLRQ&RQIHUHQFH
6RFLHW\IRU0RGHOLQJ 6LPXODWLRQ,QWHUQDWLRQDOSS
>@ %DXPJDUW$=RHOOHU$'HQ]&%HQGHU++HLQ]O$DQG%DGUHGGLQ(
8VLQJ&RPSXWHU6LPXODWLRQLQ2SHUDWLQJURRPPDQDJHPHQW,PSDFWVRQSURFHVV
HQJLQHHULQJDQG3HUIRUPDQFHWK$QQXDO+DZDLL,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RQIHUHQFHRQ
6\VWHP6FLHQFHV+,&66,(((&6S
>@ %HUQDUGR$%RUJHV-%ULWR$0RUWHR$6SHUDQGLR)DQG*RPHV&
6LPXODWLQJD3RUWXJXHVH+RVSLWDO0DVWHU6XUJHU\6FKHGXOHVW,QW&RQIRQ6H
ULRXV*DPHVDQG$SSOLFDWLRQVIRU+HDOWK 6H*$+ ,(((&6SS
>@ %LUWD/DQG$UEH]*0RGHOOLQJDQG6LPXODWLRQ6SULQJHU
>@ %ODNH-7&DUWHU0:DQG5LFKDUGVRQ6$QHYDOXDWLRQRIHPHUJHQF\URRP
ZDLWWLPHLVVXHVYLDFRPSXWHUVLPXODWLRQ,1)259ROSS
>@ %RXJXHQJ7FKHPHXEH5/RFDWLRQ$ZDUH%XVLQHVV3URFHVV0DQDJHPHQWIRU
5HDOWLPH0RQLWRULQJRI3DWLHQW&DUH3URFHVVHV0DVWHURI&RPSXWHU6FLHQFH
WKHVLV8QLYHUVLW\RI2WWDZD&DQDGD-XO\
>@ &DUWHU0:DQG%ODNH-78VLQJ6LPXODWLRQLQDQ$FXWH&DUH+RVSLWDO(DVL
HU6DLG7KDQ'RQH+DQGERRNRI2SHUDWLRQV5HVHDUFKLQ+HDOWKFDUH1HZ
<RUN.OXZHU
>@ &HQWHQR0$DQG,VPDLO$0$6LPXODWLRQ,/3%DVHG7RROIRU6FKHGXOLQJ(5
6WDII3URFRIWKH:LQWHU6LPXODWLRQ&RQIHUHQFHYRO,(((&6
SS
>@ &RFKUDQ-.DQG%KDUWL$6WRFKDVWLF%HG%DODQFLQJRIDQ2EVWHWULFV+RVSLWDO
+HDOWK&DUH0DQDJHPHQW6FLHQFH-RXUQDO.OXZHU$FDGHPLF3XEOLVKHUV
9ROXPH,VVXHSS
>@ (VNDQGDUL+.KRVUDYL6DQG*HLJHU&',PSURYLQJWKH(PHUJHQF\'HSDUW
PHQW3HUIRUPDQFH8VLQJ6LPXODWLRQDQG0&'00HWKRGVUG:LQWHU6LPXOD
WLRQ&RQIHUHQFH :6& ,(((&6SS

5HIHUHQFHV 


>@ (YHUHWW-($GHFLVLRQ6XSSRUW6LPXODWLRQ0RGHOIRUWKH0DQDJHPHQWRIDQ
(OHFWLYH6XUJHU\:DLWLQJ6\VWHP+HDOWK&DUH0DQDJHPHQW6FLHQFH-RXUQDO
.OXZHU$FDGHPLF3XEOLVKHUV9ROXPH,VVXHSS
>@ )HL+0HVNHQV1DQG'DU]L((YDOXDWLQJ$OWHUQDWLYH6XUJHU\3ODQV:LWK
'LVFUHWH(YHQW6LPXODWLRQ0RGHO+HDOWK&DUH0DQDJHPHQW :+&0 
,(((:RUNVKRS,(((&6SS
>@ )U\N3DQG6WHLQV.$0RGHUQ3URFHVV3HUVSHFWLYH3URFHVV0DSSLQJDQG
6LPXODWLRQLQ+HDOWK&DUH2SSRUWXQLWLHVDQG,7,QIUDVWUXFWXUDO1HHGV+HDOWK
&DUH0DQDJHPHQW :+&0 ,(((:RUNVKRSRQ,(((&6SS
>@ *RSDNXPDU%:DQJ6K.KDVDZQHK06ULKDUL.*DQGKL7DQG6DXQGUHV
1$6\VWHPV$SSURDFKIRU+RVSLWDO,QSDWLHQW%HG&DSDFLW\3ODQQLQJ,(((,QW
&RQIRQ,QGXVWULDO(QJLQHHULQJDQG(QJLQHHULQJ0DQDJHPHQW,(((&6
SS
>@ *XQDO0DQG3LGG06*+36,06XSSRUWLQJ6PDUW7KLQNLQJWR,PSURYH+RV
SLWDO3HUIRUPDQFHWK:LQWHU6LPXODWLRQ&RQIHUHQFH :6& ,(((&6
SS
>@ *XQDO0DQG3LGG0,QWHUFRQQHFWHG'(60RGHOVRI(PHUJHQF\2XWSDWLHQW
DQG,QSDWLHQW'HSDUWPHQWVRID+RVSLWDOWK:LQWHU6LPXODWLRQ&RQIHUHQFH
:6& ,(((&6SS
>@ +HYQHU$50DUFK$73DUN-DQG5DP6'HVLJQVFLHQFHLQLQIRUPDWLRQ
V\VWHPVUHVHDUFK0,64XDUWHUO\9RO1RSS
>@ +ROP/%DQG'DKO)$6LPXODWLQJWKH(IIHFWRI3K\VLFLDQ7ULDJHLQWKH
(PHUJHQF\'HSDUWPHQWRI$NHUVKXV8QLYHUVLW\+RVSLWDOVW:LQWHU6LPXODWLRQ
&RQIHUHQFH :6& ,(((&6SS
>@ .HOWRQ:'6DGRZVNL5DQG6ZHWV16LPXODWLRQZLWK$UHQDWKHGL
WLRQ0DFJUDZ+LOO1HZ<RUN86$
>@ .LWFKHQKDP%3URFHGXUHVIRUSHUIRUPLQJV\VWHPDWLFUHYLHZV7HFKQLFDO5HSRUW
.HHOH8QLYHUVLW\DQG1,&7$6WDIIRUGVKLUH8.
>@ .RL]XPL1.XQR(DQG6PLWK7(0RGHOLQJ3DWLHQW)ORZV8VLQJD4XHX
LQJ1HWZRUNZLWK%ORFNLQJ+HDOWK&DUH0DQDJHPHQW6FLHQFH-RXUQDO6SULQJHU
869ROXPH,VVXHSS
>@ .ROE(0:3HFN-6FKRHQLQJ6DQG/HH75HGXFLQJ(PHUJHQF\'H
SDUWPHQW2YHUFURZGLQJ)LYH3DWLHQW%XIIHU&RQFHSWVWK:LQWHU6LPXODWLRQ
&RQIHUHQFH :6& ,(((&6SS
>@ .ROE(0:/HH7DQG3HFN-(IIHFWRI&RXSOLQJEHWZHHQ(PHUJHQF\'H
SDUWPHQWDQG,QSDWLHQW8QLWRQWKH2YHUFURZGLQJLQ(PHUJHQF\'HSDUWPHQWWK
:LQWHU6LPXODWLRQ&RQIHUHQFH :6& ,(((&6SS
>@ .RONHU$3URFHVV0RGHOLQJRI,&83DWLHQWIORZ(IIHFWRI'DLO\/RDG/HYHOLQJ
RI(OHFWLYH6XUJHULHVRQ,&8'LYHUVLRQ-RXUQDORI0HGLFDO6\VWHPV -0HG6\VW 
6SULQJHU869ROXPH,VVXHSS

5HIHUHQFHV 


>@ .RPDVKLH$0RXVDYL$DQG*RUH-8VLQJ'LVFUHWH(YHQW6LPXODWLRQ '(6 


WR0DQDJH7KHDWUH2SHUDWLRQVLQ+HDOWKFDUH$Q$XGLWEDVHG&DVH6WXG\7HQWK
,QW&RQIRQ&RPSXWHU0RGHOLQJDQG6LPXODWLRQ 8.6,0 ,(((&6
SS
>@ 0DFGRQDOG6.DUNDP,$O6KLUUDZL1&KRZGKDU\5(VFDODQWH(DQG
$IDQGL$(PHUJHQF\'HSDUWPHQW3URFHVV,PSURYHPHQW6\VWHPVDQG,QIRU
PDWLRQ(QJLQHHULQJ'HVLJQ6\PSRVLXP,(((&6SS
>@ 0DUPRU<1:DVVHUNUXJ6DQG6KWXE$7RZDUGV6LPXODWLRQ%DVHG5HDO
7LPH'HFLVLRQ6XSSRUW6\VWHPVIRU(PHUJHQF\'HSDUWPHQWVVW:LQWHU6LPXOD
WLRQ&RQIHUHQFH :6& ,(((&6SS
>@ 1DQFH5($+LVWRU\RI'LVFUHWH(YHQW6LPXODWLRQ3URJUDPPLQJ/DQJXDJH75
'HSDUWPHQWRI&RPSXWHU6FLHQFH9LUJLQLD3RO\WHFKQLF,QVWLWXWHDQG6WDWH
8QLYHUVLW\86$
>@ 20*%XVLQHVV3URFHVV0RGHODQG1RWDWLRQ %301 YHUVLRQ-DQXDU\
KWWSZZZRPJRUJVSHF%301
>@ 2QWDULR0LQLVWU\RI+HDOWKDQG/RQJ7HUP&DUHKWWSHGUVZDLWWLPHVQHW(Q
>@ 3HUU\'(3RUWHU$$DQG9RWWD/*(PSLULFDOVWXGLHVRIVRIWZDUHHQJLQHHU
LQJDURDGPDS&RQIRQWKH)XWXUHRI6RIWZDUH(QJLQHHULQJ,&6($&0
SS
>@ 3HUVVRQ0-DQG3HUVVRQ-$$QDO\VLQJ0DQDJHPHQW3ROLFLHVIRU2SHUDWLQJ
URRP3ODQQLQJ8VLQJ6LPXODWLRQ+HDOWK&DUH0DQDJHPHQW6FLHQFHMRXUQDO
6SULQJHU869ROXPH,VVXHSS
>@ 3UHVWRQ:KLWH-U.$6XUYH\RI'DWD5HVRXUFHVIRU6LPXODWLQJ3DWLHQW)ORZV
LQ+HDOWKFDUH'HOLYHU\6\VWHPVWK:LQWHU6LPXODWLRQ&RQIHUHQFH :6& 
,(((&6SS
>@ 3URWLO506WURSDUR-5DQG%LFKLQKR*/$SSO\LQJ&RPSXWHU6LPXODWLRQ
WR,QFUHDVHWKH6XUJLFDO&HQWHU2FFXSDWLRQ5DWHDWD8QLYHUVLW\+RVSLWDOLQ&XUL
WLED%UD]LOWK:LQWHU6LPXODWLRQ&RQIHUHQFH :6& ,(((&6
SS
>@ 5DXQDN02VWHUZHLO/:LVH$&ODUNH/DQG+HQQHPDQ36LPXODWLQJ
3DWLHQW)ORZWKURXJKDQ(PHUJHQF\'HSDUWPHQW8VLQJ3URFHVV'ULYHQ'LVFUHWH
(YHQW6LPXODWLRQ,&6(:RUNVKRSRQ6RIWZDUH(QJLQHHULQJLQ+HDOWK&DUH
6(+& ,(((&6SS
>@ 5RKOGHU75/HZNRQLD3%LVFKDN'3'XII\3DQG+HQGLMDQL58VLQJ
6LPXODWLRQ0RGHOLQJWR,PSURYH3DWLHQW)ORZDWDQ2XWSDWLHQW2UWKRSHGLF&OLQLF
+HDOWK&DUH0DQDJHPHQW6FLHQFH-RXUQDO6SULQJHU86SS
>@ 5R]LQDW$:\QQ079DQGHU$DOVW:037HU+RIVWHGH$+0DQG)LGJH
&-:RUNIORZVLPXODWLRQIRURSHUDWLRQDOGHFLVLRQVXSSRUW'DWD .QRZOHGJH
(QJLQHHULQJ(OVHYLHU6FLHQFH3XEOLVKHUV9RO,VVXHSS

5HIHUHQFHV 


>@ 6HSXOYHGD-DQG&DKRRQ/(7KH8VHRI6LPXODWLRQIRU3URFHVV,PSURYHPHQW
LQD&DQFHU7UHDWPHQW&HQWHUVW:LQWHU6LPXODWLRQ&RQIHUHQFH :6& 
$&0YROSS
>@ 6SU\&:DQG/DZOH\0$(YDOXDWLQJ+RVSLWDO3KDUPDF\6WDIILQJDQG:RUN
6FKHGXOLQJ8VLQJ6LPXODWLRQWK:LQWHU6LPXODWLRQ&RQIHUHQFH :6& 
,(((&6SS
>@ :HQJ6-&KHQJ%&.ZRQJ67:DQJ.0DQG&KDQJ&<6LPXODWLRQ
2SWLPL]DWLRQIRU(PHUJHQF\'HSDUWPHQW5HVRXUFHV$OORFDWLRQUG:LQWHU6LPX
ODWLRQ&RQIHUHQFH :6& ,(((&6SS
>@ :LOOLDP2VOHU+HDOWK&HQWHU:LOOLDP2VOHU+HDOWK&HQWUHVHPHUJHQF\GHSDUW
PHQWZDLWWLPHLQIRUPDWLRQQRZDYDLODEOHRQOLQH
KWWSZZZZLOOLDPRVOHUKFRQFDZRUNILOHV0HGLD5HOHDVH(':DLW7LPHVSGI
>@ :LOOLDPV37DL*DQG/HL<6LPXODWLRQ%DVHG$QDO\VLVRI3DWLHQW$UULYDOWR
+HDOWKFDUH6\VWHPVDQG(YDOXDWLRQRIDQ2SHUDWLRQV,PSURYHPHQW6FKHPH$Q
QDOVRI2SHUDWLRQV5HVHDUFK6SULQJHU869ROXPH,VVXHSS

>@ :LMHZLFNUDPD$DQG7DNDNXZD66LPXODWLRQ$QDO\VLVRI$SSRLQWPHQW
6FKHGXOLQJLQDQ2XWSDWLHQW'HSDUWPHQWRI,QWHUQDO0HGLFLQHWK:LQWHU6LPXOD
WLRQ&RQIHUHQFH :6& ,(((&6SS
>@ :LMHZLFNUDPD$DQG7DNDNXZD66LPXODWLRQ$QDO\VLVRIDQ2XW3DWLHQW'H
SDUWPHQWRI,QWHUQDO0HGLFLQHLQD8QLYHUVLW\+RVSLWDOWK:LQWHU6LPXODWLRQ
&RQIHUHQFH :6& ,(((&6SS
>@ :RQJ6<7VXL./&KLQ.6DQG;X0$6LPXODWLRQ6WXG\WR$FKLHYH
+HDOWKFDUH6HUYLFH4XDOLW\,PSURYHPHQWLQ$FFLGHQW (PHUJHQF\'HSDUWPHQW
$(' 4XDOLW\DQG5HOLDELOLW\ ,&45 ,(((,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RQIHUHQFHRQ
,(((&6SS
>@ <RXQJ7-DKDQJLULDQ0DQG/LOIRUG57KUHH&ULWLFDO&KDOOHQJHVIRU0RGHO
LQJDQG6LPXODWLRQLQ+HDOWKFDUHVW:LQWHU6LPXODWLRQ&RQIHUHQFH :6& 
,(((&6SS
>@ <X</LIHQJ:+XDQJ+DQG3HUHUD70RGHOLQJ 6LPXODWLRQRIDQ2XW
SDWLHQW6HUYLFH6\VWHP&RPSXWHU$SSOLFDWLRQDQG6\VWHP0RGHOLQJ ,&&$60 
,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RQIHUHQFHRQYROSS

5HIHUHQFHV 


$SSHQGL[$$UHQD6LPXODWLRQ0RGHORI3DWLHQW
)ORZ

7KH$UHQDVLPXODWLRQPRGHOEXLOWLQWKLVWKHVLVLVDYDLODEOHRQOLQHLQWZRFRPSOHPHQWDU\
IRUPDWV
x $GLDJUDP LQ3') WKDWVKRZVWKHVLPXODWLRQPRGXOHVDQGWKHLUOLQNV
KWWSZZZHHFVXRWWDZDFDaGDP\RWSXE%DKUDQLPRGHOSGI
x $UHSRUWWKDWGHVFULEHVWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIDOOWKH$UHQDPRGXOHVLQWKLV
PRGHOLQFOXGLQJGHIDXOWYDOXHVDQGFRQGLWLRQV
KWWSZZZHHFVXRWWDZDFDaGDP\RWSXE%DKUDQLPRGHOKWPO

,QRUGHUWRJLYHDQLGHDRILWVVL]HDQGFRPSOH[LW\)LJXUHJLYHVDELUGVH\HYLHZ QRW
PHDQWWREHUHDG RIWKLVVLPXODWLRQ1RWHWKHSUHVHQFHRIWKH02(PRQLWRULQJSURFHVV
H[SDQGHGLQ)LJXUH RQWKHWRSOHIWFRUQHU



)LJXUH %LUGV(\H9LHZRIWKH6LPXODWLRQ0RGHOLQ$UHQD

$SSHQGL[$$UHQD6LPXODWLRQ0RGHORI3DWLHQW)ORZ 

También podría gustarte