15 1 5 Simulacion Montecarlo

Simulacin de Montecarlo con Excel
PLANTEAMIENTO DEL PROBLEMA FASES PARA DESARROLLAR EL
El gerente de PRODUCTOS PRECEDEROS SL vende todos 1) DEFINIR LAS VARIABLES NO CONTROBLES (

los das un producto perecedero en el mercado, de tal manera UNIDADES VENDIDAS
que las existencias que no se venden en el da constituyen
PRECIO DE VENTA
una perdida neta igual al coste de su adquisicin ms
1/unidad en concepto de transporte. PRECIO DE COMPRA
2) DEFINIR VARIABLE NO CONTROLADAS DETE
COSTE DE TRANSPORTE 1 POR UNID
3) DEFINIR VARIABLES CONTROLADAS
A primera hora de la maana adquiere las unidades de CANTIDAD A COMPRAR ( 18, 19, 20, 21, 2
producto que prev que va a vender. A continuacin se va a su 4) CALCULO DE LA FUNCION DE DISTRIBUCION
puesto en el mercado, donde permanece hasta las 14 horas.
DE LAS VARIABLE NO CONTROLABLES
Despus de esa hora las unidades sobrantes van al
contenedor de basura. 5) INTEGRACION DE LOS ELEMENTOS EN EL M
COMBINAR LOS N ALEATORIOS OBTEN
CON LA FUNCION DE DISTRIBUCION VA
Y SIMULAR LOS BENEFICIOS EN FUNCIO
TODAS LAS VARIABLES DEL MODELO
Por esta razn, el gerente desea ser muy cuidadoso con las 6) FUNCION DE DISTRIBUCION DE LOS BENEFI
provisiones de ese producto y con tal motivo ha decidido COMO HERRAMIENTA DE DECISIN
realizar un modelo de simulacin que le informe de cuantas 7) COMPARACION DE LOS BENEFICIOS ESPER
unidades de ese producto debe adquirir cada da. OPTENCION DE MEDIAS E INTERVALOS
PARA CADA CANTIDAD COMPRADA
COMO HERRAMIENTA DE DECISIN
Si vende todo (COMPRAS <= DEMANDA) sus ingresos

sern: (VENTAS x PRECIO DE VENTA) - (COMPRAS x
PRECIO DE COMPRA) - (COMPRAS x 1 de transporte)
Si no vende todo, (COMPRAS > DEMANDA) sus ingresos

sern: (DEMANDA x PRECIO DE VENTA) - (COMPRAS x www.economia-excel.com
PRECIO DE COMPRA) - (COMPRAS x 1 de tansporte)
Hay un coste de exceso si la DEMANDA < COMPRAS. La

cantidad no vendida por el precio de compra ms los gastos
de transporte.
Los datos histricos que puede facilitar son los siguientes:

Unidades vendidas N de das
20 10
21 20
22 30
23 30
24 20
25 10
Los precios de venta han variado cada da y los datos que
nos puede proporcionar son :
Precio de venta N de das
10 20
12 30
14 40
16 30
18 10
Asimismo nos puede facilitar el precio de compra unitario

de la mercanca
Precio de compra N de das

5 15
7 25
9 35
11 25
17 10
rlo con Excel
PARA DESARROLLAR EL MODELO:
ABLES NO CONTROBLES (ALEATORIAS)
NO CONTROLADAS DETERMINISTAS
ANSPORTE 1 POR UNIDAD
S CONTROLADAS
OMPRAR ( 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23 . ) a optimizar.
UNCION DE DISTRIBUCION
BLE NO CONTROLABLES (ALEATORIAS)
LOS ELEMENTOS EN EL MODELO
S N ALEATORIOS OBTENIDOS CON EXCEL
ON DE DISTRIBUCION VAR. ALEATORIAS
S BENEFICIOS EN FUNCION DE LAS
ARIABLES DEL MODELO
RIBUCION DE LOS BENEFICIOS SIMULADOS
MIENTA DE DECISIN
LOS BENEFICIOS ESPERADOS
E MEDIAS E INTERVALOS (nivel confianza 95 %)
ANTIDAD COMPRADA
MIENTA DE DECISIN
www.economia-excel.com
Empresa: PRODUCTOS PERECEDEROS SL
Objetivo: decidir el n de unidades de mximo beneficio que debe adquirir la empresa

PRODUCTOS PERECEDEROS SL
Mtodo: simulacin de Montecarlo con Excel = mtodo cuantitativo que a partir de una
muestra estadstica y una serie de nmeros aleatorios que analiza el comportamiento de
sistemas reales no dinmicos.
Modelo: Max Beneficio / Beneficio=si adquisicin <= demanda , ((adquisicin x precio de

venta) - (adquisicin x precio de compra) - (adquisicin x transporte)), (demanda x precio
de venta) - (demanda x precio de compra) - (demanda x transporte) - coste de exceso)
(utilizando notacin Excel)
1 - Variables no controlables aleatorias:

VENTAS PRECIO DE VENTA PRECIO DE COMPRA
uds vendidas n de das precios n de das precios n de das
20 10 10 20 5 15
21 20 12 30 7 25
22 30 14 40 9 35
23 30 16 30 11 25
24 20 18 10 17 10
25 10
2 - Variables no controlables deterministas:

Coste exceso = Precio adquisicin + 1
3 - Variables controlables:
Cantidad de productos a adquirir: 18, 19, 20. 30
4 - Distribucin de probabilidad de las variables no controlables:

Demanda Precio venta Precio compra
Pr. Acumulada Demanda n de das Pr. Suceso Pr. Acumulada P. Venta n de das Pr. Suceso Pr. Acumulada P. Compra n de das Pr. Suceso
0.00 19 0.00 9 0.00 4
0.08 20 10 0.08 0.15 10 20 0.15 0.14 5 15 0.14
0.25 21 20 0.17 0.38 12 30 0.23 0.36 7 25 0.23
0.50 22 30 0.25 0.69 14 40 0.31 0.68 9 35 0.32
0.75 23 30 0.25 0.92 16 30 0.23 0.91 11 25 0.23
0.92 24 20 0.17 1.00 18 10 0.08 1.00 17 10 0.09
1.00 25 10 0.08 130 1.00 110 1.00
120 1.00
A continuacin se representa grficamente el rea de probabilidad de cada suceso:
Demanda Precio de Venta Precio de Compra

0.14
0.23
0.32
0.23
0.09
0.08
0.17
0.25
0.25
0.17
0.08
0.15
0.23
0.31
0.23
0.08
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00
prob. Demanda 25 uds prob. Demanda 24 uds
prob. precio compra 17 prob. precio compra 11 prob. precio compra 9
prob. Demanda 23 uds prob. Demanda 22 uds prob. precio vta. 18 prob. precio vta.16 prob. precio vta. 14
prob. precio compra 7 prob. precio compra 5
prob. Demanda 21 uds prob. Demanda 20 uds prob. precio vta. 12 prob. precio vta. 10
5 - Integracin de los elementos en el modelo
Se trata de generar una serie de nmeros pseudo-aleatorios mediante Excel, dentro de una distribucin uniforme
entre 0 y 1, y buscar el intervalo de nmeros aleatorios asociados a cada suceso a partir de la columna de
probabilidad acumulada. Se realizan 1000 ensayos
Con los datos simulados se calcula el beneficio para las distintas cantidades a adquirir (variables controlables) y
conforme a la frmula del modelo.
SIMULACIN DE BENEFICIOS PARA LAS SIGUIENTES CANTIDADES A COMPRAR
ASIGNACIN DE SUCESOS A LOS NUM. ALEATORIOS EXCEL
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
n sucesos demanda precio venta precio compra coste compra coste exceso beneficios coste exceso beneficios coste exceso beneficios coste exceso beneficios coste exceso beneficios coste exceso beneficios coste exceso beneficios coste exceso beneficios coste exceso beneficios
1 22 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 6 104 12 98 18 92 24 86
2 22 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 11 77 22 66 33 55 44 44
3 23 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 7 85 14 78 21 71
4 23 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 9 83 18 74 27 65
5 20 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 11 29 22 18 33 7 44 -4 55 -15 66 -26
6 21 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 11 31 22 20 33 9 44 -2 55 -13
7 22 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 6 104 12 98 18 92 24 86
8 24 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 9 87 18 78
9 24 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 7 137 14 130
10 21 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 9 75 18 66 27 57 36 48 45 39
11 24 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 11 37 22 26
12 22 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 9 123 18 114 27 105 36 96
13 21 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 9 75 18 66 27 57 36 48 45 39
14 22 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26 39 -39 52 -52
15 24 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 0 66 0 69 0 72 7 65 14 58
16 22 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 9 13 18 4 27 -5 36 -14
17 22 17 12 13 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 13 75 26 62 39 49 52 36
18 23 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 0 66 0 69 7 62 14 55 21 48
19 21 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 11 31 22 20 33 9 44 -2 55 -13
20 25 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 0 50 11 39
21 21 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 7 161 14 154 21 147 28 140 35 133
22 23 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 9 37 18 28 27 19
23 23 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33
24 22 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 9 13 18 4 27 -5 36 -14
25 23 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 9 129 18 120 27 111
26 22 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44
27 23 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33
28 22 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 9 13 18 4 27 -5 36 -14
29 22 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44
30 20 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 6 174 12 168 18 162 24 156 30 150 36 144
31 22 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 7 125 14 118 21 111 28 104
32 22 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 9 123 18 114 27 105 36 96
33 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
34 22 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 6 104 12 98 18 92 24 86
35 23 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 0 -23 11 -34 22 -45 33 -56
36 21 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 9 33 18 24 27 15 36 6 45 -3
37 21 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44 55 -55
38 22 11 12 13 0 -36 0 -38 0 -40 0 -42 0 -44 13 -57 26 -70 39 -83 52 -96
39 23 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 0 66 0 69 7 62 14 55 21 48
40 22 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 9 35 18 26 27 17 36 8
41 20 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 11 69 22 58 33 47 44 36 55 25 66 14
42 24 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 9 39 18 30
43 23 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 7 131 14 124 21 117
44 24 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 0 198 0 207 0 216 6 210 12 204
45 22 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 11 77 22 66 33 55 44 44
46 23 11 12 13 0 -36 0 -38 0 -40 0 -42 0 -44 0 -46 13 -59 26 -72 39 -85
47 24 10 5 6 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 6 90 12 84
48 23 15 12 13 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 13 33 26 20 39 7
49 23 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26 39 -39
50 24 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 7 137 14 130
51 20 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 9 71 18 62 27 53 36 44 45 35 54 26
52 21 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 7 56 14 49 21 42 28 35 35 28
53 22 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 7 169 14 162 21 155 28 148
54 23 10 12 13 0 -54 0 -57 0 -60 0 -63 0 -66 0 -69 13 -82 26 -95 39 -108
55 21 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 11 73 22 62 33 51 44 40 55 29
56 23 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 9 14 18 5 27 -4
57 25 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 0 50 9 41
58 21 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 9 12 18 3 27 -6 36 -15 45 -24
59 23 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 7 85 14 78 21 71
60 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
61 21 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 7 56 14 49 21 42 28 35 35 28
62 20 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 9 151 18 142 27 133 36 124 45 115 54 106
63 23 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 9 37 18 28 27 19
64 21 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 9 117 18 108 27 99 36 90 45 81
65 23 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 9 129 18 120 27 111
66 23 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 0 -23 11 -34 22 -45 33 -56
67 21 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 7 161 14 154 21 147 28 140 35 133
68 21 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 11 73 22 62 33 51 44 40 55 29
69 24 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 0 24 9 15 18 6
70 24 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 0 -23 0 -24 11 -35 22 -46
71 22 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 9 35 18 26 27 17 36 8
72 24 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 11 37 22 26
73 23 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 0 161 6 155 12 149 18 143
74 23 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 9 37 18 28 27 19
75 22 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 7 125 14 118 21 111 28 104
76 24 15 12 13 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 13 35 26 22
77 25 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 0 100 7 93
78 24 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 0 -23 0 -24 11 -35 22 -46
79 23 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 0 161 6 155 12 149 18 143
80 23 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 0 161 6 155 12 149 18 143
81 21 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 9 75 18 66 27 57 36 48 45 39
82 23 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 9 37 18 28 27 19
83 22 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 0 66 7 59 14 52 21 45 28 38
84 22 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 7 125 14 118 21 111 28 104
85 23 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 9 83 18 74 27 65
86 25 10 12 13 0 -54 0 -57 0 -60 0 -63 0 -66 0 -69 0 -72 0 -75 13 -88
87 22 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 9 123 18 114 27 105 36 96
88 23 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 0 115 6 109 12 103 18 97
89 23 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 11 81 22 70 33 59
90 25 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 0 24 0 25 9 16
91 22 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 7 125 14 118 21 111 28 104
92 22 10 5 6 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 6 82 12 76 18 70 24 64
93 22 17 6 7 0 180 0 190 0 200 0 210 0 220 7 213 14 206 21 199 28 192
94 22 10 5 6 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 6 82 12 76 18 70 24 64
95 21 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 9 75 18 66 27 57 36 48 45 39
96 23 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26 39 -39
97 23 17 12 13 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 13 79 26 66 39 53
98 23 17 12 13 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 13 79 26 66 39 53
99 23 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 0 161 6 155 12 149 18 143
100 22 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 0 198 6 192 12 186 18 180 24 174
101 23 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 7 85 14 78 21 71
102 24 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 9 87 18 78
103 22 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 11 -33 22 -44 33 -55 44 -66
104 22 11 12 13 0 -36 0 -38 0 -40 0 -42 0 -44 13 -57 26 -70 39 -83 52 -96
105 23 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 9 37 18 28 27 19
106 22 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 11 77 22 66 33 55 44 44
107 23 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 7 177 14 170 21 163
108 23 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 7 131 14 124 21 117
109 22 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 9 123 18 114 27 105 36 96
110 22 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 0 66 7 59 14 52 21 45 28 38
111 21 11 12 13 0 -36 0 -38 0 -40 0 -42 13 -55 26 -68 39 -81 52 -94 65 -107
112 23 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 11 35 22 24 33 13
113 21 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 6 141 12 135 18 129 24 123 30 117
114 23 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 7 85 14 78 21 71
115 23 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 9 14 18 5 27 -4
116 21 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 7 119 14 112 21 105 28 98 35 91
117 23 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 0 -23 11 -34 22 -45 33 -56
118 25 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 0 100 7 93
119 24 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 9 39 18 30
120 24 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 11 37 22 26
121 22 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 0 66 7 59 14 52 21 45 28 38
122 25 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 0 66 0 69 0 72 0 75 7 68
123 25 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 0 150 9 141
124 22 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 7 125 14 118 21 111 28 104
125 21 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 9 12 18 3 27 -6 36 -15 45 -24
126 23 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 9 14 18 5 27 -4
127 22 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 9 167 18 158 27 149 36 140
128 23 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 7 131 14 124 21 117
129 22 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44
130 21 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 9 75 18 66 27 57 36 48 45 39
131 22 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 7 125 14 118 21 111 28 104
132 20 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 7 73 14 66 21 59 28 52 35 45 42 38
133 23 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 0 115 6 109 12 103 18 97
134 23 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 9 83 18 74 27 65
135 22 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 11 -33 22 -44 33 -55 44 -66
136 25 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 0 100 11 89
137 24 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26
138 21 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 6 183 12 177 18 171 24 165 30 159
139 24 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 9 39 18 30
140 23 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 9 83 18 74 27 65
141 23 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 0 -23 11 -34 22 -45 33 -56
142 23 10 12 13 0 -54 0 -57 0 -60 0 -63 0 -66 0 -69 13 -82 26 -95 39 -108
143 24 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 9 39 18 30
144 24 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 9 39 18 30
145 23 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 9 37 18 28 27 19
146 22 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 7 125 14 118 21 111 28 104
147 23 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 7 131 14 124 21 117
148 22 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 11 33 22 22 33 11 44 0
149 23 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 0 66 0 69 7 62 14 55 21 48
150 23 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 0 115 6 109 12 103 18 97
151 25 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11
152 23 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33
153 21 10 12 13 0 -54 0 -57 0 -60 0 -63 13 -76 26 -89 39 -102 52 -115 65 -128
154 24 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 9 135 18 126
155 25 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 0 100 9 91
156 22 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 0 198 6 192 12 186 18 180 24 174
157 23 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 9 14 18 5 27 -4
158 22 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 9 123 18 114 27 105 36 96
159 22 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 11 33 22 22 33 11 44 0
160 23 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 9 83 18 74 27 65
161 21 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 7 119 14 112 21 105 28 98 35 91
162 22 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 9 13 18 4 27 -5 36 -14
163 23 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 7 131 14 124 21 117
164 24 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 0 192 9 183 18 174
165 24 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 0 -23 0 -24 11 -35 22 -46
166 23 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 0 115 6 109 12 103 18 97
167 21 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 7 161 14 154 21 147 28 140 35 133
168 21 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 7 56 14 49 21 42 28 35 35 28
169 23 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 0 161 6 155 12 149 18 143
170 25 17 10 11 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 0 150 11 139
171 21 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44 55 -55
172 23 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 9 14 18 5 27 -4
173 22 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 7 169 14 162 21 155 28 148
174 24 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 0 115 0 120 6 114 12 108
175 23 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 0 161 6 155 12 149 18 143
176 21 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 9 33 18 24 27 15 36 6 45 -3
177 22 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 11 33 22 22 33 11 44 0
178 25 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 0 198 0 207 0 216 0 225 6 219
179 24 15 12 13 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 13 35 26 22
180 25 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11
181 22 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 0 66 7 59 14 52 21 45 28 38
182 25 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 0 150 9 141
183 20 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 7 73 14 66 21 59 28 52 35 45 42 38
184 25 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 0 50 11 39
185 22 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 6 104 12 98 18 92 24 86
186 25 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 0 115 0 120 0 125 6 119
187 23 17 10 11 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 11 127 22 116 33 105
188 24 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 0 -23 0 -24 11 -35 22 -46
189 23 17 5 6 0 198 0 209 0 220 0 231 0 242 0 253 6 247 12 241 18 235
190 25 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 0 161 0 168 0 175 6 169
191 24 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 11 85 22 74
192 23 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 0 -23 11 -34 22 -45 33 -56
193 21 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 11 73 22 62 33 51 44 40 55 29
194 25 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 0 150 9 141
195 22 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 9 13 18 4 27 -5 36 -14
196 22 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 0 66 7 59 14 52 21 45 28 38
197 22 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44
198 24 17 6 7 0 180 0 190 0 200 0 210 0 220 0 230 0 240 7 233 14 226
199 24 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 0 161 0 168 6 162 12 156
200 24 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 9 87 18 78
201 23 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 9 83 18 74 27 65
202 23 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 0 161 6 155 12 149 18 143
203 24 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22
204 23 10 12 13 0 -54 0 -57 0 -60 0 -63 0 -66 0 -69 13 -82 26 -95 39 -108
205 24 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 9 135 18 126
206 23 17 6 7 0 180 0 190 0 200 0 210 0 220 0 230 7 223 14 216 21 209
207 23 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 11 81 22 70 33 59
208 22 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 11 -33 22 -44 33 -55 44 -66
209 20 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 9 151 18 142 27 133 36 124 45 115 54 106
210 22 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 11 33 22 22 33 11 44 0
211 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
212 21 17 12 13 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 13 71 26 58 39 45 52 32 65 19
213 20 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 11 29 22 18 33 7 44 -4 55 -15 66 -26
214 23 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 11 35 22 24 33 13
215 22 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26 39 -39 52 -52
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835 25 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 0 150 9 141
836 23 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 0 161 6 155 12 149 18 143
837 23 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 0 198 0 207 6 201 12 195 18 189
838 25 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 0 150 9 141
839 21 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 9 12 18 3 27 -6 36 -15 45 -24
840 20 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 7 113 14 106 21 99 28 92 35 85 42 78
841 22 17 5 6 0 198 0 209 0 220 0 231 0 242 6 236 12 230 18 224 24 218
842 25 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 0 100 11 89
843 20 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 7 113 14 106 21 99 28 92 35 85 42 78
844 24 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 9 39 18 30
845 22 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 11 77 22 66 33 55 44 44
846 23 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 9 83 18 74 27 65
847 20 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 7 113 14 106 21 99 28 92 35 85 42 78
848 21 17 10 11 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 11 115 22 104 33 93 44 82 55 71
849 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
850 21 17 10 11 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 11 115 22 104 33 93 44 82 55 71
851 22 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 9 35 18 26 27 17 36 8
852 23 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 9 83 18 74 27 65
853 22 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 9 13 18 4 27 -5 36 -14
854 21 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 9 117 18 108 27 99 36 90 45 81
855 22 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 9 167 18 158 27 149 36 140
856 23 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 9 37 18 28 27 19
857 24 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 9 135 18 126
858 25 15 12 13 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 0 50 13 37
859 25 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 0 161 0 168 0 175 6 169
860 23 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 0 161 6 155 12 149 18 143
861 20 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 9 71 18 62 27 53 36 44 45 35 54 26
862 25 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 0 100 9 91
863 25 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 0 198 0 207 0 216 0 225 6 219
864 23 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 0 115 6 109 12 103 18 97
865 24 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22
866 23 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 9 83 18 74 27 65
867 22 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 7 125 14 118 21 111 28 104
868 23 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 0 -23 11 -34 22 -45 33 -56
869 22 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 9 13 18 4 27 -5 36 -14
870 20 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 9 31 18 22 27 13 36 4 45 -5 54 -14
871 23 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 11 81 22 70 33 59
872 24 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 0 24 9 15 18 6
873 22 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 9 35 18 26 27 17 36 8
874 23 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 0 198 0 207 6 201 12 195 18 189
875 23 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 9 37 18 28 27 19
876 22 11 12 13 0 -36 0 -38 0 -40 0 -42 0 -44 13 -57 26 -70 39 -83 52 -96
877 23 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 9 129 18 120 27 111
878 25 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 0 100 11 89
879 22 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 9 13 18 4 27 -5 36 -14
880 20 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 6 174 12 168 18 162 24 156 30 150 36 144
881 23 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 9 37 18 28 27 19
882 23 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 11 81 22 70 33 59
883 22 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 0 66 7 59 14 52 21 45 28 38
884 21 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44 55 -55
885 25 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 0 150 9 141
886 20 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 11 -31 22 -42 33 -53 44 -64 55 -75 66 -86
887 20 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 9 71 18 62 27 53 36 44 45 35 54 26
888 23 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 7 131 14 124 21 117
889 24 17 10 11 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 11 133 22 122
890 25 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 0 50 9 41
891 21 11 12 13 0 -36 0 -38 0 -40 0 -42 13 -55 26 -68 39 -81 52 -94 65 -107
892 24 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 9 39 18 30
893 22 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 9 13 18 4 27 -5 36 -14
894 23 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 9 129 18 120 27 111
895 22 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 9 13 18 4 27 -5 36 -14
896 24 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 0 24 9 15 18 6
897 23 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 11 35 22 24 33 13
898 25 11 12 13 0 -36 0 -38 0 -40 0 -42 0 -44 0 -46 0 -48 0 -50 13 -63
899 22 17 10 11 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 11 121 22 110 33 99 44 88
900 20 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 9 31 18 22 27 13 36 4 45 -5 54 -14
901 22 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44
902 23 17 10 11 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 11 127 22 116 33 105
903 21 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 11 31 22 20 33 9 44 -2 55 -13
904 22 10 12 13 0 -54 0 -57 0 -60 0 -63 0 -66 13 -79 26 -92 39 -105 52 -118
905 24 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 11 37 22 26
906 24 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 11 85 22 74
907 25 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 0 24 0 25 9 16
908 22 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 7 81 14 74 21 67 28 60
909 22 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 7 81 14 74 21 67 28 60
910 22 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 9 35 18 26 27 17 36 8
911 23 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 11 81 22 70 33 59
912 20 10 12 13 0 -54 0 -57 0 -60 13 -73 26 -86 39 -99 52 -112 65 -125 78 -138
913 24 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 9 87 18 78
914 23 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 9 37 18 28 27 19
915 24 11 12 13 0 -36 0 -38 0 -40 0 -42 0 -44 0 -46 0 -48 13 -61 26 -74
916 22 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 7 125 14 118 21 111 28 104
917 22 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 7 81 14 74 21 67 28 60
918 23 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 9 37 18 28 27 19
919 21 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 9 117 18 108 27 99 36 90 45 81
920 24 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 7 137 14 130
921 25 17 10 11 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 0 150 11 139
922 23 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 9 129 18 120 27 111
923 21 10 5 6 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 6 78 12 72 18 66 24 60 30 54
924 24 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 0 161 0 168 6 162 12 156
925 22 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 11 33 22 22 33 11 44 0
926 21 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 7 77 14 70 21 63 28 56 35 49
927 20 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 6 134 12 128 18 122 24 116 30 110 36 104
928 24 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 0 -23 0 -24 11 -35 22 -46
929 23 10 5 6 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 6 86 12 80 18 74
930 24 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 9 39 18 30
931 23 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 7 85 14 78 21 71
932 22 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 7 81 14 74 21 67 28 60
933 23 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 9 83 18 74 27 65
934 23 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 11 35 22 24 33 13
935 20 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44 55 -55 66 -66
936 22 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 7 169 14 162 21 155 28 148
937 25 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 0 192 0 200 7 193
938 21 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 9 33 18 24 27 15 36 6 45 -3
939 25 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 0 150 7 143
940 24 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 11 37 22 26
941 24 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 9 135 18 126
942 23 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 0 161 6 155 12 149 18 143
943 22 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 11 33 22 22 33 11 44 0
944 22 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 0 66 7 59 14 52 21 45 28 38
945 22 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 11 -33 22 -44 33 -55 44 -66
946 23 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 9 129 18 120 27 111
947 24 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 0 192 9 183 18 174
948 21 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 6 183 12 177 18 171 24 165 30 159
949 23 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 9 14 18 5 27 -4
950 22 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 6 104 12 98 18 92 24 86
951 23 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 11 81 22 70 33 59
952 25 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 0 100 9 91
953 23 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 0 198 0 207 6 201 12 195 18 189
954 23 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 11 35 22 24 33 13
955 23 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 0 66 0 69 7 62 14 55 21 48
956 24 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 9 135 18 126
957 21 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 7 77 14 70 21 63 28 56 35 49
958 20 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26 39 -39 52 -52 65 -65 78 -78
959 23 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 7 131 14 124 21 117
960 21 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26 39 -39 52 -52 65 -65
961 21 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 9 33 18 24 27 15 36 6 45 -3
962 21 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 11 73 22 62 33 51 44 40 55 29
963 23 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 9 83 18 74 27 65
964 21 17 6 7 0 180 0 190 0 200 0 210 7 203 14 196 21 189 28 182 35 175
965 22 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 9 13 18 4 27 -5 36 -14
966 22 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 7 81 14 74 21 67 28 60
967 22 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 11 33 22 22 33 11 44 0
968 22 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 7 81 14 74 21 67 28 60
969 22 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 9 13 18 4 27 -5 36 -14
970 22 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 9 35 18 26 27 17 36 8
971 22 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26 39 -39 52 -52
972 23 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 9 83 18 74 27 65
973 21 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 7 56 14 49 21 42 28 35 35 28
974 20 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 11 -31 22 -42 33 -53 44 -64 55 -75 66 -86
975 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
976 21 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 7 161 14 154 21 147 28 140 35 133
977 21 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 9 117 18 108 27 99 36 90 45 81
978 21 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 9 117 18 108 27 99 36 90 45 81
979 23 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 11 81 22 70 33 59
980 21 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 11 -32 22 -43 33 -54 44 -65 55 -76
981 21 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44 55 -55
982 22 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 7 125 14 118 21 111 28 104
983 25 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 0 198 0 207 0 216 0 225 6 219
984 24 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 9 87 18 78
985 24 11 12 13 0 -36 0 -38 0 -40 0 -42 0 -44 0 -46 0 -48 13 -61 26 -74
986 21 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 9 117 18 108 27 99 36 90 45 81
987 23 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 9 129 18 120 27 111
988 24 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 9 39 18 30
989 25 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 0 161 0 168 0 175 6 169
990 22 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44
991 23 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 9 14 18 5 27 -4
992 22 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 6 148 12 142 18 136 24 130
993 24 11 12 13 0 -36 0 -38 0 -40 0 -42 0 -44 0 -46 0 -48 13 -61 26 -74
994 24 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22
995 21 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 9 75 18 66 27 57 36 48 45 39
996 24 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 0 24 9 15 18 6
997 23 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 7 177 14 170 21 163
998 23 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 7 131 14 124 21 117
999 21 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 9 33 18 24 27 15 36 6 45 -3
1000 24 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 11 37 22 26
6 - Funcin de distribucin de beneficios simulados:
Para comparar, de las 9 simulaciones realizadas, se eligen 3 ( 20, 22 y 24 unidades), se calcula la distribucin de beneficios y se representa
grficamente la probabilidad acumulada.
20 unid. 22 unid. 24 unid.

n sucesos prob prob acum n sucesos prob prob acum. n sucesos prob prob acum
-114 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-113 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-112 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PROB. ACUMULADA
-111 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-110 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-109 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-108 0 0 DISTRIBUCIN
0 0 DE
0 BENEFICIOS
0 0 0 0
-107 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-106 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.9
-105 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-104 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.8
-103 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-102 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0.004 0.004
0.7
-101 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.004
-100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.004
0.6
-99 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.004
-98 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.004 20 unid.
0.5
-97 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.004
22 unid.
-96 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.004
0.4 24 unid.
-95 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.004
-94 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.004
0.3
-93 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.004
-92 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0.004 0.008
0.2
-91 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.008
-90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.008
0.1
-89 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.008
-88 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.008
-87 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.008
-105
-114
102
120
129
147
165
174
183
192
201
210
228
237
246
-87
-78
-60
-42
-24
138
156
219
-96
-69
-51
-33
-15
111
12
21
30
39
48
57
66
75
84
93
-6
3
-86 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.008
-85 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.008
-84 0 0 0
BENEFICIO
0
SIMULADO
0 0 0 0 0.008
-83 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.008
-82 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0.008 0.016
-81 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0.008 0.024
-80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.024
-79 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.024
-78 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.024
-77 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.024
-76 0 0 0 2 0.004 0.004 0 0 0.024
-75 0 0 0 0 0 0.004 0 0 0.024
-74 0 0 0 0 0 0.004 0 0 0.024
-73 0 0 0 0 0 0.004 0 0 0.024
-72 0 0 0 0 0 0.004 2 0.004 0.028
-71 0 0 0 0 0 0.004 0 0 0.028
-70 0 0 0 0 0 0.004 4 0.008 0.036
-69 0 0 0 0 0 0.004 0 0 0.036
-68 0 0 0 0 0 0.004 0 0 0.036
-67 0 0 0 0 0 0.004 0 0 0.036
-66 0 0 0 8 0.016 0.02 0 0 0.036
-65 0 0 0 0 0 0.02 0 0 0.036
-64 0 0 0 0 0 0.02 0 0 0.036
-63 0 0 0 0 0 0.02 0 0 0.036
-62 0 0 0 0 0 0.02 0 0 0.036
-61 0 0 0 0 0 0.02 0 0 0.036
-60 9 0.018 0.018 0 0 0.02 0 0 0.036
-59 0 0 0.018 0 0 0.02 3 0.006 0.042
-58 0 0 0.018 0 0 0.02 0 0 0.042
-57 0 0 0.018 0 0 0.02 0 0 0.042
-56 0 0 0.018 0 0 0.02 0 0 0.042
-55 0 0 0.018 4 0.008 0.028 0 0 0.042
-54 0 0 0.018 0 0 0.028 1 0.002 0.044
-53 0 0 0.018 0 0 0.028 0 0 0.044
-52 0 0 0.018 0 0 0.028 0 0 0.044
-51 0 0 0.018 0 0 0.028 0 0 0.044
-50 0 0 0.018 0 0 0.028 0 0 0.044
-49 0 0 0.018 0 0 0.028 0 0 0.044
-48 0 0 0.018 0 0 0.028 2 0.004 0.048
-47 0 0 0.018 0 0 0.028 0 0 0.048
-46 0 0 0.018 0 0 0.028 0 0 0.048
-45 0 0 0.018 0 0 0.028 0 0 0.048
-44 0 0 0.018 9 0.018 0.046 5 0.01 0.058
-43 0 0 0.018 0 0 0.046 0 0 0.058
-42 0 0 0.018 0 0 0.046 0 0 0.058
-41 0 0 0.018 0 0 0.046 0 0 0.058
-40 14 0.028 0.046 0 0 0.046 0 0 0.058
-39 0 0 0.046 0 0 0.046 0 0 0.058
-38 0 0 0.046 0 0 0.046 0 0 0.058
-37 0 0 0.046 0 0 0.046 0 0 0.058
-36 0 0 0.046 0 0 0.046 0 0 0.058
-35 0 0 0.046 0 0 0.046 0 0 0.058
-34 0 0 0.046 0 0 0.046 7 0.014 0.072
-33 0 0 0.046 0 0 0.046 2 0.004 0.076
-32 0 0 0.046 1 0.002 0.048 0 0 0.076
-31 0 0 0.046 0 0 0.048 0 0 0.076
-30 0 0 0.046 0 0 0.048 0 0 0.076
-29 0 0 0.046 0 0 0.048 0 0 0.076
-28 0 0 0.046 0 0 0.048 0 0 0.076
-27 0 0 0.046 0 0 0.048 0 0 0.076
-26 0 0 0.046 0 0 0.048 5 0.01 0.086
-25 0 0 0.046 0 0 0.048 0 0 0.086
-24 0 0 0.046 0 0 0.048 6 0.012 0.098
-23 0 0 0.046 0 0 0.048 0 0 0.098
-22 0 0 0.046 18 0.036 0.084 8 0.016 0.114
-21 0 0 0.046 0 0 0.084 0 0 0.114
-20 17 0.034 0.08 0 0 0.084 0 0 0.114
-19 0 0 0.08 0 0 0.084 0 0 0.114
-18 0 0 0.08 0 0 0.084 0 0 0.114
-17 0 0 0.08 0 0 0.084 0 0 0.114
-16 0 0 0.08 0 0 0.084 0 0 0.114
-15 0 0 0.08 0 0 0.084 0 0 0.114
-14 0 0 0.08 0 0 0.084 0 0 0.114
-13 0 0 0.08 0 0 0.084 5 0.01 0.124
-12 0 0 0.08 0 0 0.084 0 0 0.124
-11 0 0 0.08 2 0.004 0.088 7 0.014 0.138
-10 0 0 0.08 0 0 0.088 0 0 0.138
-9 0 0 0.08 0 0 0.088 0 0 0.138
-8 0 0 0.08 0 0 0.088 0 0 0.138
-7 0 0 0.08 0 0 0.088 0 0 0.138
-6 0 0 0.08 0 0 0.088 8 0.016 0.154
-5 0 0 0.08 0 0 0.088 0 0 0.154
-4 0 0 0.08 0 0 0.088 6 0.012 0.166
-3 0 0 0.08 0 0 0.088 0 0 0.166
-2 0 0 0.08 0 0 0.088 0 0 0.166
-1 0 0 0.08 0 0 0.088 0 0 0.166
0 36 0.072 0.152 32 0.064 0.152 7 0.014 0.18
1 0 0 0.152 0 0 0.152 0 0 0.18
2 0 0 0.152 0 0 0.152 0 0 0.18
3 0 0 0.152 0 0 0.152 0 0 0.18
4 0 0 0.152 0 0 0.152 9 0.018 0.198
5 0 0 0.152 0 0 0.152 0 0 0.198
6 0 0 0.152 0 0 0.152 0 0 0.198
7 0 0 0.152 0 0 0.152 0 0 0.198
8 0 0 0.152 0 0 0.152 0 0 0.198
9 0 0 0.152 0 0 0.152 6 0.012 0.21
10 0 0 0.152 0 0 0.152 0 0 0.21
11 0 0 0.152 0 0 0.152 0 0 0.21
12 0 0 0.152 8 0.016 0.168 0 0 0.21
13 0 0 0.152 0 0 0.168 0 0 0.21
14 0 0 0.152 0 0 0.168 6 0.012 0.222
15 0 0 0.152 0 0 0.168 2 0.004 0.226
16 0 0 0.152 0 0 0.168 0 0 0.226
17 0 0 0.152 0 0 0.168 0 0 0.226
18 0 0 0.152 6 0.012 0.18 3 0.006 0.232
19 0 0 0.152 0 0 0.18 0 0 0.232
20 30 0.06 0.212 0 0 0.18 0 0 0.232
21 0 0 0.212 0 0 0.18 0 0 0.232
22 0 0 0.212 23 0.046 0.226 10 0.02 0.252
23 0 0 0.212 0 0 0.226 0 0 0.252
24 0 0 0.212 0 0 0.226 8 0.016 0.268
25 0 0 0.212 0 0 0.226 0 0 0.268
26 0 0 0.212 0 0 0.226 5 0.01 0.278
27 0 0 0.212 0 0 0.226 0 0 0.278
28 0 0 0.212 0 0 0.226 1 0.002 0.28
29 0 0 0.212 0 0 0.226 0 0 0.28
30 0 0 0.212 0 0 0.226 0 0 0.28
31 0 0 0.212 6 0.012 0.238 0 0 0.28
32 0 0 0.212 0 0 0.238 2 0.004 0.284
33 0 0 0.212 2 0.004 0.242 4 0.008 0.292
34 0 0 0.212 0 0 0.242 0 0 0.292
35 0 0 0.212 0 0 0.242 9 0.018 0.31
36 0 0 0.212 0 0 0.242 2 0.004 0.314
37 0 0 0.212 0 0 0.242 11 0.022 0.336
38 0 0 0.212 0 0 0.242 0 0 0.336
39 0 0 0.212 0 0 0.242 0 0 0.336
40 83 0.166 0.378 0 0 0.242 0 0 0.336
41 0 0 0.378 0 0 0.242 0 0 0.336
42 0 0 0.378 0 0 0.242 5 0.01 0.346
43 0 0 0.378 0 0 0.242 0 0 0.346
44 0 0 0.378 68 0.136 0.378 3 0.006 0.352
45 0 0 0.378 0 0 0.378 1 0.002 0.354
46 0 0 0.378 2 0.004 0.382 0 0 0.354
47 0 0 0.378 0 0 0.382 0 0 0.354
48 0 0 0.378 0 0 0.382 26 0.052 0.406
49 0 0 0.378 0 0 0.382 0 0 0.406
50 0 0 0.378 0 0 0.382 0 0 0.406
51 0 0 0.378 0 0 0.382 8 0.016 0.422
52 0 0 0.378 0 0 0.382 12 0.024 0.446
53 0 0 0.378 0 0 0.382 0 0 0.446
54 0 0 0.378 1 0.002 0.384 0 0 0.446
55 0 0 0.378 0 0 0.384 0 0 0.446
56 0 0 0.378 5 0.01 0.394 1 0.002 0.448
57 0 0 0.378 0 0 0.394 7 0.014 0.462
58 0 0 0.378 2 0.004 0.398 0 0 0.462
59 0 0 0.378 0 0 0.398 0 0 0.462
60 26 0.052 0.43 0 0 0.398 0 0 0.462
61 0 0 0.43 0 0 0.398 0 0 0.462
62 0 0 0.43 3 0.006 0.404 7 0.014 0.476
63 0 0 0.43 0 0 0.404 3 0.006 0.482
64 0 0 0.43 0 0 0.404 0 0 0.482
65 0 0 0.43 0 0 0.404 0 0 0.482
66 0 0 0.43 22 0.044 0.448 5 0.01 0.492
67 0 0 0.43 0 0 0.448 0 0 0.492
68 0 0 0.43 1 0.002 0.45 0 0 0.492
69 0 0 0.43 0 0 0.45 0 0 0.492
70 0 0 0.43 0 0 0.45 12 0.024 0.516
71 0 0 0.43 1 0.002 0.452 0 0 0.516
72 0 0 0.43 0 0 0.452 4 0.008 0.524
73 0 0 0.43 8 0.016 0.468 0 0 0.524
74 0 0 0.43 0 0 0.468 6 0.012 0.536
75 0 0 0.43 7 0.014 0.482 0 0 0.536
76 0 0 0.43 0 0 0.482 4 0.008 0.544
77 0 0 0.43 3 0.006 0.488 0 0 0.544
78 0 0 0.43 1 0.002 0.49 0 0 0.544
79 0 0 0.43 0 0 0.49 3 0.006 0.55
80 113 0.226 0.656 0 0 0.49 0 0 0.55
81 0 0 0.656 0 0 0.49 7 0.014 0.564
82 0 0 0.656 0 0 0.49 0 0 0.564
83 0 0 0.656 0 0 0.49 15 0.03 0.594
84 0 0 0.656 0 0 0.49 0 0 0.594
85 0 0 0.656 0 0 0.49 6 0.012 0.606
86 0 0 0.656 0 0 0.49 0 0 0.606
87 0 0 0.656 0 0 0.49 2 0.004 0.61
88 0 0 0.656 84 0.168 0.658 0 0 0.61
89 0 0 0.656 0 0 0.658 0 0 0.61
90 0 0 0.656 0 0 0.658 0 0 0.61
91 0 0 0.656 0 0 0.658 0 0 0.61
92 0 0 0.656 0 0 0.658 3 0.006 0.616
93 0 0 0.656 0 0 0.658 1 0.002 0.618
94 0 0 0.656 0 0 0.658 0 0 0.618
95 0 0 0.656 0 0 0.658 0 0 0.618
96 0 0 0.656 0 0 0.658 27 0.054 0.672
97 0 0 0.656 0 0 0.658 0 0 0.672
98 0 0 0.656 1 0.002 0.66 5 0.01 0.682
99 0 0 0.656 2 0.004 0.664 1 0.002 0.684
100 19 0.038 0.694 0 0 0.664 0 0 0.684
101 0 0 0.694 0 0 0.664 0 0 0.684
102 0 0 0.694 0 0 0.664 0 0 0.684
103 0 0 0.694 0 0 0.664 0 0 0.684
104 0 0 0.694 0 0 0.664 0 0 0.684
105 0 0 0.694 0 0 0.664 7 0.014 0.698
106 0 0 0.694 3 0.006 0.67 0 0 0.698
107 0 0 0.694 0 0 0.67 0 0 0.698
108 0 0 0.694 0 0 0.67 0 0 0.698
109 0 0 0.694 0 0 0.67 5 0.01 0.708
110 0 0 0.694 16 0.032 0.702 1 0.002 0.71
111 0 0 0.694 0 0 0.702 0 0 0.71
112 0 0 0.694 0 0 0.702 0 0 0.71
113 0 0 0.694 0 0 0.702 0 0 0.71
114 0 0 0.694 0 0 0.702 12 0.024 0.734
115 0 0 0.694 1 0.002 0.704 0 0 0.734
116 0 0 0.694 0 0 0.704 0 0 0.734
117 0 0 0.694 1 0.002 0.706 0 0 0.734
118 0 0 0.694 0 0 0.706 10 0.02 0.754
119 0 0 0.694 7 0.014 0.72 0 0 0.754
120 70 0.14 0.834 0 0 0.72 6 0.012 0.766
121 0 0 0.834 0 0 0.72 0 0 0.766
122 0 0 0.834 0 0 0.72 0 0 0.766
123 0 0 0.834 0 0 0.72 0 0 0.766
124 0 0 0.834 0 0 0.72 2 0.004 0.77
125 0 0 0.834 0 0 0.72 0 0 0.77
126 0 0 0.834 0 0 0.72 0 0 0.77
127 0 0 0.834 0 0 0.72 1 0.002 0.772
128 0 0 0.834 0 0 0.72 0 0 0.772
129 0 0 0.834 0 0 0.72 12 0.024 0.796
130 0 0 0.834 0 0 0.72 0 0 0.796
131 0 0 0.834 0 0 0.72 7 0.014 0.81
132 0 0 0.834 57 0.114 0.834 1 0.002 0.812
133 0 0 0.834 0 0 0.834 0 0 0.812
134 0 0 0.834 0 0 0.834 0 0 0.812
135 0 0 0.834 0 0 0.834 0 0 0.812
136 0 0 0.834 0 0 0.834 0 0 0.812
137 0 0 0.834 0 0 0.834 0 0 0.812
138 0 0 0.834 0 0 0.834 0 0 0.812
139 0 0 0.834 0 0 0.834 0 0 0.812
140 24 0.048 0.882 0 0 0.834 0 0 0.812
141 0 0 0.882 4 0.008 0.842 2 0.004 0.816
142 0 0 0.882 2 0.004 0.846 5 0.01 0.826
143 0 0 0.882 0 0 0.846 0 0 0.826
144 0 0 0.882 0 0 0.846 18 0.036 0.862
145 0 0 0.882 0 0 0.846 0 0 0.862
146 0 0 0.882 1 0.002 0.848 0 0 0.862
147 0 0 0.882 0 0 0.848 11 0.022 0.884
148 0 0 0.882 0 0 0.848 0 0 0.884
149 0 0 0.882 0 0 0.848 0 0 0.884
150 0 0 0.882 0 0 0.848 0 0 0.884
151 0 0 0.882 0 0 0.848 0 0 0.884
152 0 0 0.882 0 0 0.848 0 0 0.884
153 0 0 0.882 0 0 0.848 0 0 0.884
154 0 0 0.882 20 0.04 0.888 0 0 0.884
155 0 0 0.882 0 0 0.888 12 0.024 0.908
156 0 0 0.882 0 0 0.888 1 0.002 0.91
157 0 0 0.882 0 0 0.888 0 0 0.91
158 0 0 0.882 0 0 0.888 3 0.006 0.916
159 0 0 0.882 2 0.004 0.892 0 0 0.916
160 33 0.066 0.948 0 0 0.892 0 0 0.916
161 0 0 0.948 11 0.022 0.914 0 0 0.916
162 0 0 0.948 0 0 0.914 3 0.006 0.922
163 0 0 0.948 0 0 0.914 0 0 0.922
164 0 0 0.948 0 0 0.914 0 0 0.922
165 0 0 0.948 0 0 0.914 0 0 0.922
166 0 0 0.948 0 0 0.914 0 0 0.922
167 0 0 0.948 0 0 0.914 0 0 0.922
168 0 0 0.948 1 0.002 0.916 3 0.006 0.928
169 0 0 0.948 0 0 0.916 0 0 0.928
170 0 0 0.948 0 0 0.916 0 0 0.928
171 0 0 0.948 0 0 0.916 2 0.004 0.932
172 0 0 0.948 0 0 0.916 0 0 0.932
173 0 0 0.948 0 0 0.916 0 0 0.932
174 0 0 0.948 0 0 0.916 0 0 0.932
175 0 0 0.948 0 0 0.916 0 0 0.932
176 0 0 0.948 17 0.034 0.95 0 0 0.932
177 0 0 0.948 0 0 0.95 5 0.01 0.942
178 0 0 0.948 0 0 0.95 0 0 0.942
179 0 0 0.948 0 0 0.95 0 0 0.942
180 15 0.03 0.978 0 0 0.95 0 0 0.942
181 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.95 0 0 0.942
182 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.95 0 0 0.942
183 0 0 0.978 2 0.004 0.954 0 0 0.942
184 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.954 0 0 0.942
185 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.954 0 0 0.942
186 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.954 4 0.008 0.95
187 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.954 0 0 0.95
188 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.954 0 0 0.95
189 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.954 0 0 0.95
190 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.954 0 0 0.95
191 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.954 0 0 0.95
192 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.954 6 0.012 0.962
193 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.954 0 0 0.962
194 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.954 0 0 0.962
195 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.954 0 0 0.962
196 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.954 0 0 0.962
197 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.954 0 0 0.962
198 0 0 0.978 12 0.024 0.978 0 0 0.962
199 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.962
200 7 0.014 0.992 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.962
201 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.978 4 0.008 0.97
202 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.97
203 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.97
204 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.97
205 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.97
206 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.978 3 0.006 0.976
207 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.976
208 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.976
209 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.976
210 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.976
211 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.976
212 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.976
213 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.976
214 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.976
215 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.976
216 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.978 4 0.008 0.984
217 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.984
218 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.984
219 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.978 0 0 0.984
220 4 0.008 1 7 0.014 0.992 0 0 0.984
221 0 0 1 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.984
222 0 0 1 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.984
223 0 0 1 0 0 0.992 3 0.006 0.99
224 0 0 1 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.99
225 0 0 1 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.99
226 0 0 1 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.99
227 0 0 1 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.99
228 0 0 1 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.99
229 0 0 1 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.99
230 0 0 1 0 0 0.992 1 0.002 0.992
231 0 0 1 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.992
232 0 0 1 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.992
233 0 0 1 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.992
234 0 0 1 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.992
235 0 0 1 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.992
236 0 0 1 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.992
237 0 0 1 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.992
238 0 0 1 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.992
239 0 0 1 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.992
240 0 0 1 0 0 0.992 1 0.002 0.994
241 0 0 1 0 0 0.992 0 0 0.994
242 0 0 1 4 0.008 1 0 0 0.994
243 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0.994
244 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0.994
245 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0.994
246 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0.994
247 0 0 1 0 0 1 2 0.004 0.998
248 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0.998
249 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0.998
250 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0.998
7 - Beneficios esperados:
A partir de los beneficios simulados para cada cantidad comprada, obtenemos la variable aleatoria de beneficios esperados, calculando la media de las
1000 simulaciones, y adems obtenemos el intervalo de confianza a un nivel del 95%.
BENEFICIO, VARIANZA E INTERVALO GENERADO A PARTIR DE EL N DE UNIDADES COMPRADAS

CANTIDADES 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
BENEFICIO MEDIO 66.60 70.30 74.00 76.90 77.75 75.34 69.38 61.51 52.53
DESVIACIN TPICA 53.37 56.33 59.30 62.23 65.00 67.68 70.06 72.27 73.90
INTERVALO CONFIANZA 4.68 4.94 5.20 5.45 5.70 5.93 6.14 6.33 6.48
MXIMO 71.28 75.24 79.20 82.35 83.44 81.27 75.52 67.85 59.01
B E N E F IC IO M E D IO E N 1 0 0 0 E N S AY.
MNIMO 61.92 65.36 68.80 71.44 72.05 69.41 63.24 55.18 46.05
BENEFICIO ESPERADO
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
50.00 BENEFICIO MEDIO
40.00 MXIMO
MNIMO
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
CANTIDADES COMPRADAS SIMULADAS
PULSAR F9 PARA RECLCULO ALEATORIO
Decisin:
Los resultados de la simulacin indican que la decisin que maximiza el

beneficio es realizar un pedido de 22 unidades.
Los resultados de la simulacin indican que la decisin que maximiza el
beneficio es realizar un pedido de 22 unidades.

15 1 5 Simulacion Montecarlo

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15 1 5 Simulacion Montecarlo

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Simulacin de Montecarlo con Excel

PLANTEAMIENTO DEL PROBLEMA FASES PARA DESARROLLAR EL

El gerente de PRODUCTOS PRECEDEROS SL vende todos 1) DEFINIR LAS VARIABLES NO CONTROBLES (

Si vende todo (COMPRAS <= DEMANDA) sus ingresos

Si no vende todo, (COMPRAS > DEMANDA) sus ingresos

Hay un coste de exceso si la DEMANDA < COMPRAS. La

Los datos histricos que puede facilitar son los siguientes:

Asimismo nos puede facilitar el precio de compra unitario

Precio de compra N de das

PARA DESARROLLAR EL MODELO:

ABLES NO CONTROBLES (ALEATORIAS)

Objetivo: decidir el n de unidades de mximo beneficio que debe adquirir la empresa

Modelo: Max Beneficio / Beneficio=si adquisicin <= demanda , ((adquisicin x precio de

1 - Variables no controlables aleatorias:

2 - Variables no controlables deterministas:

4 - Distribucin de probabilidad de las variables no controlables:

A continuacin se representa grficamente el rea de probabilidad de cada suceso:

Demanda Precio de Venta Precio de Compra

5 - Integracin de los elementos en el modelo

20 unid. 22 unid. 24 unid.

BENEFICIO, VARIANZA E INTERVALO GENERADO A PARTIR DE EL N DE UNIDADES COMPRADAS

PULSAR F9 PARA RECLCULO ALEATORIO

Los resultados de la simulacin indican que la decisin que maximiza el

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