Santiago David Cueva Andrade

Forecasting
GUA PARA TRABAJO AUTNOMO PROCESUAL #2
OBJETIVO ESPECFICO

Discutir como los pronsticos puede ser usados en la planificacin para direccionar
problemas especficos dentro de una organizacin.
Evaluar diferentes modelos de pronsticos para determinar el modelo ms apropiado al
momento de pronosticar la demanda.
Preguntas.
1. Para influir la demanda, qu estrategias son utilizadas por supermercados, aerolneas,
hospitales, bancos y los fabricantes de cerveza? Cite ejemplos locales.
De manera general para influir en la demanda de manera positiva, las empresas dedicadas
a los servicios, deben brindar de una atencin al cliente de manera excepcional, ya que
esto provoca un enamoramiento del cliente y lo vuelve fiel a la firma y no busque otras
opciones en el mercado, as estas tengan una mejor oferta econmica.
Otra forma de influir en la demanda es mediante promociones temporales, como lo hacen
supermercados, los cuales ofrecen sorteos de carros, viajes, los mismos productos pero a
un costo inferior.
Las aerolneas tambin ofrecen promociones como compra hoy en enero y vuela en abril a
precios atractivos para el cliente, esto por lo general se lo hace para obtener dinero de una
manera rpida.
Tambin la innovacin suele ser pieza vital para influir en la demanda, un ejemplo clave en
el mercado de las cervezas, es la nueva etiqueta que utiliza cierta marca, la cual le indica al
consumidor cuando la cerveza ha alcanzado su temperatura ptima para ser consumida.
2. Todos los mtodos de pronstico que usan suavizacin exponencial, y suavizacin
exponencial con tendencia requieren valores iniciales para que funcionen las ecuaciones.
Cmo escogera el valor inicial para, por ejemplo, Ft 1?
Escogera 3 valores de las demandas reales pasadas, el ms alto, el medio y el ms bajo, y
los promediara para obtener mi Ft 1.
3. De la eleccin de un promedio mvil simple, promedio mvil ponderado, suavizacin
exponencial y anlisis de regresin lineal, qu tcnicas de pronstico le parecera ms
precisa? Por qu?

Santiago David Cueva Andrade

2

Para desarrollar un modelo de pronostico efectivo aqu interviene el arte de usar

pronsticos, uno tiene que saber visualizar que tcnica es la apropiada para cada caso o
situacin, para ello el primer paso es realizar las grficas de los datos, segn esto uno con la
prctica y destrezas selecciona la tcnica correcta, lo cual implica que ser la ms precisa
para el caso dado ya que es la mejor opcin que se seleccion.
Un claro ejemplo es cuando se ve que el problema tiene una tendencia y no existen picos
estacionales considerables, se utiliza regresin lineal, ya que se adapta mejor a este caso y
por ende ser ms precisa que utilizar otro tipo de tcnica para pronosticar.
4. D ejemplos que tengan una relacin multiplicadora de la tendencia estacional.

En Ecuador en los meses de invierno se ve un incremento en la compra de repelentes de

insectos debido a que en esta estacin invernal, los mosquitos proliferan por las lluvias.
En la temporada de playa se incrementa la venta de bloqueadores solares y bronceadores,
tambin accesorios para carros que evitan el calentamiento del mismo por rayos solares.
Generalmente para la poca de avistamiento de ballenas los binoculares alcanzan su pico
mximo de ventas si no ocurren otros eventos inesperados, como erupciones repentinas de
volcanes.

5. Qu implicaciones tienen los errores de pronstico en la bsqueda de modelos de

pronstico estadstico muy complejos?
Con el fin obtener pronsticos que ms se acerquen a la realidad para tener una mejor
estimacin de los mismos los errores nos permiten saber la exactitud del pronstico
estadstico por muy complejo que este sea, estos errores demuestran que tan cercanos son
los pronsticos con la realidad de la demanda en la vida cotidiana, esto es bueno debido a
que el pronstico es la nica estimacin de la demanda hasta que se conoce la demanda
real.
6. Las relaciones causales son potencialmente ms tiles para qu componente de una serie
temporal?
Las relaciones causales son tiles en casos que presenten tendencia y estacionalidad como
en la tcnica Winter, el cual consiste en encontrar los factores estacionales para cada
intervalo de tiempo para luego con regresin lineal encontrar la lnea de tendencia y poder
pronosticar, cada pronstico se debe ajustar con el factor estacional hallado previamente
para cada intervalo de tiempo.

Santiago David Cueva Andrade

3

Casos.
1. Forecasting at State University
During the past few years the legislature has severely reduced funding for State University. In
reaction, the administration at State has significantly raised tuition each year for the past five years. A
bargain five years ago, State is now considered an expensive state-supported university. Some
parents and students now question the value of a State education, and applications for admission
have declined. Since a portion of state educational funding is based on a formula tied to enrollments,
State has its enrollment levels by going deeper into its applicant pool and accepting less qualified
students.
On top of these problems, an increase in the college age population is expected in this decade. Key
members of the state legislature have told the university administration that State will be expected to
absorb additional students during this decade. However, because of the economic outlook and the
budget situation, State should not expect any funding increases for additional facilities, classrooms,
dormitory rooms, or faculty. The university already has a classroom deficit in excess of 25%, and
class sizes are above the average of their peer institutions.
The president of the university, Tanisha Lindsey, established several task forces consisting of faculty
and administrators to address these problems. These groups made a number of recommendations,
including the implementation of total quality management (TQM) practices and more in-depth,
focused planning.
Discuss in general terms how forecasting might be used for planning to address these specific
problems and the role of forecasting in initiating a TQM approach. Include in your discussion the
types of forecasting methods that might be used.
Un buen pronstico de la demanda de estudiantes para el siguiente periodo lectivo nos ayudara
muchsimo para hacer una correcta planificacin de estudio para el cierto nmero de estudiantes que
decidir estudiar alguna carrera, como los recursos son limitados, tanto dormitorios como aulas de
clases y aplicando administracin total de calidad, desarrollada por expertos, la universidad tiene
como objetivo comn brindar una educacin de calidad y que el estudiante se sienta en un ambiente
digno de aprendizaje y bienestar.

Santiago David Cueva Andrade

4

2. The University Bookstore Student Computer Purchase Program

The University Bookstore is owned and operated by State University through an independent
corporation with its own board of directors. The bookstore has three locations on or near the State
University campus. It stocks a range of items, including textbooks, trade books, logo apparel, drawing
and educational supplies, and computers and related products such as printers, modems, and
software.
The bookstore has a program to sell personal computers to incoming freshmen and other students at
a substantial educational discount partly passed on from computer manufacturers. This means that
the bookstore just covers computer costs with a very small profit margin remaining.
Each summer all incoming freshmen and their parents come to the State campus for a three-day
orientation program. The students come in groups of 100 throughout the summer. During their visit
the students and their parents are given details about the bookstores computer purchase program.
Some students place their computer orders for the fall semester at this time, while others wait until
later in the summer. The bookstore also receives orders from returning students throughout the
summer. This program presents a challenging supply chain management problem for the bookstore.
Orders come in throughout the summer, many only a few weeks before school starts in the fall, and
the computer suppliers require at least six weeks for delivery.
Thus, the bookstore must forecast computer demand to build up inventory to meet student demand in
the fall. The student computer program and the forecast of computer demand have repercussions all
along the bookstore supply chain. The bookstore has a warehouse near campus where it must store
all computers since it has no storage space at its retail locations. Ordering too many computers not
only ties up the bookstores cash reserves, but also takes up limited storage space and limits
inventories for other bookstore products during the bookstores busiest sales period. Since the
bookstore has such a low profit margin on computers, its bottom line depends on these other
products. As competition for good students has increased, the university has become very qualityconscious and insists that all university facilities provide exemplary student service, which for the
bookstore means meeting all student demands for computers when the fall semester starts. The
number of computers ordered also affects the number of temporary warehouse and bookstore
workers that must be hired for handling and assisting with
PC installations. The number of truck trips from the warehouse to the bookstore each day of fall
registration is also affected by computer sales.
The bookstore student computer purchase program has been in place for 14 years. Although the
student population has remained stable during this period, computer historical sales data for
computers during the first month of fall registration:

Santiago David Cueva Andrade

5

Year
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

Computers Sold
518
651
708
921
775
810
856

Year
8
9
10
11
12
13
14

Computers Sold
792
877
693
841
1009
902
1103

Develop an appropriate forecast model for bookstore management to use to forecast computer
demand for the next fall semester and indicate how accurate it appears to be. What other forecasts
might be useful to the bookstore in managing its supply chain?
Utilizaremos varios modelos de pronsticos con el fin de saber cul es el ms apropiado para
la demanda futura mediante la comparacin de errores, el que tenga menor error es modelo
de pronostico que ms se acerca a la realidad.
Datos

Regresin Lineal

Year

Computa
doras
vendidas

Pron. Computadoras
vendidas

518

643.40

651

670.30

708

697.21

921

724.11

775

751.02

810

777.92

856

804.83

792

831.73

877

858.64

10

693

885.54

11
12

841
1009

912.45
939.35

Error
125.
40
19.3
0
10.8
0
196.
89
23.9
9
32.0
8
51.1
8
39.7
3
18.3
7
192.
54
71.4
5
69.6

Santiago David Cueva Andrade

6

13

902

966.26

14
15

1103

993.16
1020.07

5
64.2
6
109.
84
102
5.45
73.2
5

SUMA
MAD

Computadoras Vendidas
1200
1000

f(x) = 26.91x + 616.49

R = 0.57

800
600
400
200
0

Datos
Year
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13

10

12

14

16

Exponential Smoothing
Comput
ers Sold
518
651
708
921
775
810
856
792
877
693
841
1009
902

Erro
r

Pron. Computer Sold

878.4
804.2
803
846.8
804.8
860
729.8
811.4
975.4
923.4

42.6
29.2
7
9.2
12.8
17
36.8
29.6
33.6
21.4

Santiago David Cueva Andrade

7
14
15

1103

1062.8
993.1

40.2
279.
4
25.4

SUMA
MAD

Pronstico Exponential Smoothing

1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400

Computers Sold

10

12

14

16

Pron. Computer Sold

El modelo ms apropiado puede ser el Mtodo de Suavizacin Exponencial, ya que vemos que los
datos se mantienen creciendo y lo ms recomendable es predecir la cantidad en la que aumentara, y
esta nos facilita la mayora de datos, y es el ms exacto de los dems modelos con un error menor
que los dems.
Y el otro pronstico quizs menos efectivo puesto que tiene mayor error, y no esta tan cerca a la
realidad de mi demanda seria el Mtodo de Regresin Lineal

3. Cascades Swim Club

The Cascades Swim Club has 300 stockholders, each holding one share of stock in the club. A share
of club stock allows the shareholders family to use the clubs heated outdoor pool during the summer
upon payment of annual membership dues of $175. The club has not issued any stock in years, and
only a few of the existing shares come up for sale each year. The board of directors administers the
sale of all stock. When a shareholder wants to sell, he or she turns the stock into the board, which
sells it to the person at the top of the waiting list.
For the past few years, the length of the waiting list has remained relatively steady at approximately
20 names. However, during the past winter two events occurred that have suddenly increased the
demand for shares in the club. The winter was especially severe, and subzero weather and heavy ice

Santiago David Cueva Andrade

8

storms caused both the town and the county pools to buckle and crack. The problems were not
discovered until maintenance crews began to prepare the pools for the summer, and repairs cannot
be completed until the fall. Also during the winter, the manager of the local country club had an
argument with her board of directors and one night burned down the clubhouse. Although the pool
itself was not damaged, the dressing room facilities, showers, and snack bar were destroyed.
As a result of these two events, the Cascades Swim Club was inundated with applications to
purchase shares. The waiting list suddenly grew to 250 people as the summer approached.
The board of directors of the swim club had refrained from issuing new shares in the past because
there never was a very great demand, and the demand that did exist was usually absorbed within a
year by stock turnover. In addition, the board has a real concern about overcrowding.
It seemed like the present membership was about right, and there were very few complaints about
overcrowding, except on holidays such as Memorial Day and the Fourth of July. However, at a recent
board meeting a number of new applicants had attended and asked the board to issue new shares.
In addition, a number of current shareholders suggested that this might be an opportunity for the club
to raise some capital for needed repairs and to improve some of the existing facilities. This was
tempting to the board. Although it had set the share price at $500 in the past, the board could set it at
a much higher level now. In addition, an increase in attendance could create a need for more
lifeguards.
Before the board of directors could make a decision on whether to sell more shares and, if so, how
many, the board members felt they needed more information.
Specifically, they would like a forecast of the average number of people (family members, guests,
etc.) who might attend the pool each day during the summer with the current number of shares.
The board of directors has the following daily attendance records for June through August from the
previous summer; it thinks the figures would provide accurate estimates for the upcoming summer.
M-198
W-356
F-284
Su-399
T-239
Th-259
T-310
Th-322
Sa-417
M-275
W-274
F-232
W-347
F-419
Su-474
T-241
Th-205
Sa-317
Th-393
Sa-516
M-194
W-190
F-361
Su-369
F-421
Su-478
T-207
Th-243
Sa-411
M-361
Sa-595
M-303
W-215
F-277
Su-419
Th-259
Su-497
T-223
Th-304
Sa-241
M-258
F-232
M-198
W-356
F-284
Su-399
T-239
Sa-317
T-310
Th-322
Sa-417
M-275
W-274
Su-369
W-347
F-419
Su-474
T-241
Th-205
M-361
Th-393
Sa-516
M-194
W-190
F-361
F-421
Su-478
T-207
Th-243
Sa-411
Sa-595
M-303
W-215
F-277
Su-419
Su-497
T-223
Th-304
Sa-241
M-258
M-341
W-315
F-331
Su-384
T-130
T-291
Th-258
Sa-407
M-246
W-195
Develop a forecasting model to forecast daily demand during the summer.

Santiago David Cueva Andrade

9

Utilizaremos varios modelos de pronsticos con el fin de saber cul es el ms apropiado para
la demanda futura mediante la comparacin de errores, el que tenga menor error es modelo
de pronostico que ms se acerca a la realidad.
Para pronosticar la demanda diaria durante el verano se utilizara suavizacin exponencial.

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13

Lunes
198
198
341
303
303
194
194
275
275
246
258
258
361

14

361

Marte Miercol
Vierne Sabad
s
es
Jueves s
o
Domingo
310
347
393
421
595
497
310
347
393
421
595
497
291
356
322
419
516
478
223
356
322
419
516
478
223
315
258
284
417
474
207
215
304
284
407
474
207
215
304
331
241
399
241
190
243
277
241
399
241
190
243
277
411
384
239
274
205
361
411
419
130
274
205
361
317
419
259
195
259
232
317
369
194.5
234.5
232 296.5
317
369
226.7
264.2
5 214.75 245.5
5
317
369

Santiago David Cueva Andrade

10

Suma
MAD

586.4
48.866
67

587.325
48.9437
5

527.32
5
43.943
75

486.95
40.57916
667

704.075
58.6729
17

748.2
62.35

512.2
42.68
33

Suavizacin exponencial
370
350
330
310
290
270
250
230
210
190
170

11

13

15

El modelo de pronstico seleccionado para este ejercicio es suavizacin exponencial con alpha 0,2
debido a que presenta menor error que utilizando el alpha recomendado por el programa.

Santiago David Cueva Andrade

11

4. Forecasting Passenger Arrivals at the Gotham International Airport

Since the terrorist attacks of 9/11 and the ensuing measures by the federal Transportation Security
Administration (TSA) to increase airline security, airports have faced the problem of long waiting lines
and waiting times at security gates. One of the key components of any effort by the
TSA to operationally improve airport security procedures while reducing passenger waiting times and
inconvenience is forecasting passenger arrivals at security checkpoints in order to determine how
many security checkpoints and staff are needed. At the Gotham International Airport, TSA operations
analysts would like to forecast passenger arrivals for next July, the airport's busiest travel month of
the year, for the purpose of determining how many security checkpoints they should staff during the
month in order that waiting lines and times will not be excessively long.
Demand for airline travel has generally been increasing during the past three years. There are two
main concourses at Gotham International, East and West, each serving different airlines. The
following table shows passenger arrivals at the West concourse for 10 days (selected randomly) in
two-hour segments from 4:00 A.M. to 10:00 P.M. for the month of July for the past three years.

Da
y

Yea
r1

Yea
r2

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14

4-6 A.M.

2400
1900
2300
2200
2400
2600
1900
2000
2400
2600
3100
280
2700
2400

6-8 A.M.

2700
2500
3100
3200
3300
2800
2800
2700
3200
3300
3900
3400
3800
3500

8-10 A.M.

3200
3100
2500
3100
3400
3500
3100
2500
3600
3100
4100
3900
4300
4100

10-noon

1400
1600
1500
2200
1700
1500
1200
1500
1600
200
2200
1900
2100
2400

noon-2 P.M.

1700
1800
1500
1900
2200
1700
1500
2000
2100
2500
2600
2100
2400
3000

2-4 P.M.

1800
2000
1800
2400
2100
1900
2000
2300
2500
2600
2300
2500
2400
3200

4-6 P.M.

1600
1800
1900
2100
2000
1500
1400
1900
1800
2400
2500
2000
2400
2600

6-8 P.M.

800
900
1100
1200
1000
1100
900
1000
1400
1100
1100
1200
1200
1200

8-10 P.M.

200
300
200
400
600
300
400
200
200
400
300
300
400
700

Santiago David Cueva Andrade

12

Yea
r3

15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30

3300
3500
2900
3400
3600
3700
4400
4200
4500
4600
4500
4200
4500
4300
4900
4700

3700
4000
4100
3800
3600
3700
4400
4500
4500
4600
4300
4300
4500
4200
4100
4500

4000
3800
3900
4200
4000
4000
4500
4300
4700
4600
4400
4500
5100
4300
4200
4100

2600
2300
2400
2000
2300
2200
2600
2500
2700
2500
2900
3000
3300
2800
3100
3000

2600
2700
3000
2500
2600
2600
3300
3400
3400
3200
3300
4000
4000
3500
3600
4000

2700
3100
3200
3000
2800
2700
3400
3600
3500
3500
3400
3400
3700
4000
3900
3700

2900
3000
2500
2200
2600
2400
3000
2100
2900
2800
3300
3000
3100
3300
3400
3400

1000
900
1100
1000
1200
1200
1200
1400
1200
1300
1500
1500
1200
1100
1400
1200

Develop a forecast for daily passenger arrivals at the West concourse at Gotham for each time period
for July of year 4. Discuss the various forecast model variations that might be used to develop this
forecast.

4-6 A.M.

Suma
Prome
dio
Prom
de
Prom.
C. de
Est.

96380
3212.66
667

1.29

6-8
A.M.

8-10
A.M.

1110
00

1161
00

3700

3870

1.48

10-noon

Registro
de
Vuelos
H.

807
00
269
0

2-4 P.M.

4-6
P.M.

6-8 P.M.

8-10 P.M.

85400
2846.66
667

738
00
246
0

34600
1153.33
333

10600
353.3333
33

2495.481481
1.0
0.87
8
1.14

0.9
9

0.46

0.14

65200
2173.33
333

1.55

noon
-2
P.M.

Registrro
de Vuelos
H. S/E

y = 6.1111x +
1654.3

Pro. Reg. De Vuelo

300
200
500
300
200
200
400
300
300
300
400
600
300
400
500
500

Santiago David Cueva Andrade

13
1
2
3
4
5

4-6 A.M.
6-8 A.M.
8-10 A.M.

6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14

4-6 P.M.
6-8 P.M.
8-10 P.M.
4-6 A.M.
6-8 A.M.
8-10 A.M.

15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23

33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41

10-noon
noon-2
P.M.
2-4 P.M.
4-6 P.M.
6-8 P.M.
8-10 P.M.
4-6 A.M.
6-8 A.M.
8-10 A.M.

24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32

10-noon
noon-2
P.M.
2-4 P.M.

10-noon
noon-2
P.M.
2-4 P.M.
4-6 P.M.
6-8 P.M.
8-10 P.M.
4-6 A.M.
6-8 A.M.
8-10 A.M.

10-noon
noon-2
P.M.
2-4 P.M.
4-6 P.M.
6-8 P.M.
8-10 P.M.

4-6 A.M.
6-8 A.M.
8-10 A.M.
10-noon
noon-2

2400
2700
3200
1400

1864.23
1821.03
2063.45
1607.52

1660.41
1666.52
1672.63
1678.74

2137.60
2470.92
2593.92
1462.03

1700

1577.07
1577.94
1623.08
1730.97
1412.54
1475.85
1686.14
1998.96
1837.16

1684.86
1690.97
1697.08
1703.19
1709.30
1715.41
1721.52
1727.63
1733.74

1816.19
1928.93
1672.95
787.16
242.02
2208.41
2552.47
2679.22
1509.93

1669.84
1753.27
1825.96
1947.34
2118.81
1786.56
2090.81
1612.07
1722.34

1739.86
1745.97
1752.08
1758.19
1764.30
1770.41
1776.52
1782.63
1788.74

1875.47
1991.67
1727.17
812.58
249.81
2279.22
2634.01
2764.51
1557.83

1391.53
1577.94
1927.40
2380.08
1412.54
1708.88
2158.25
1998.96
2526.10

1794.86
1800.97
1807.08
1813.19
1819.30
1825.41
1831.52
1837.63
1843.74

1934.76
2054.41
1781.38
838.00
257.59
2350.02
2715.56
2849.81
1605.73

1762.61
2103.92
2130.29
2596.45
2825.07
1864.23
2225.70
2192.41
1951.99
2040.91

1849.86
1855.97
1862.08
1868.19
1874.30
1880.41
1886.52
1892.63
1898.74
1904.86

1994.05
2117.15
1835.60
863.42
265.38
2420.83
2797.11
2935.10
1653.63
2053.34

1800
1600
800
200
1900
2500
3100
1600
1800
2000
1800
900
300
2300
3100
2500
1500
1500
1800
1900
1100
200
2200
3200
3100
2200
1900
2400
2100
1200
400
2400
3300
3400
1700
2200

Santiago David Cueva Andrade

14
P.M.

42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50

2-4 P.M.
4-6 P.M.
6-8 P.M.
8-10 P.M.
4-6 A.M.
6-8 A.M.
8-10 A.M.

51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59

4-6 P.M.
6-8 P.M.
8-10 P.M.
4-6 A.M.
6-8 A.M.
8-10 A.M.

60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68

78
79
80
81
82

10-noon
noon-2
P.M.
2-4 P.M.
4-6 P.M.
6-8 P.M.
8-10 P.M.
4-6 A.M.
6-8 A.M.
8-10 A.M.

69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77

10-noon
noon-2
P.M.
2-4 P.M.

10-noon
noon-2
P.M.
2-4 P.M.
4-6 P.M.
6-8 P.M.
8-10 P.M.
4-6 A.M.
6-8 A.M.
8-10 A.M.

10-noon
noon-2
P.M.
2-4 P.M.
4-6 P.M.
6-8 P.M.

8-10 P.M.
4-6 A.M.

2100
2000
1000
600
2600
2800
3500
1500

1840.93
2028.85
2163.71
4237.61
2019.58
1888.47
2256.90
1722.34

1910.97
1917.08
1923.19
1929.30
1935.41
1941.52
1947.63
1953.74

2179.89
1889.82
888.84
273.17
2491.64
2878.66
3020.39
1701.53

1700

1577.07
1665.60
1521.64
2380.08
2118.81
1475.85
1888.47
1998.96
1377.87

1959.86
1965.97
1972.08
1978.19
1984.30
1990.41
1996.52
2002.63
2008.74

2112.62
2242.63
1944.04
914.26
280.96
2562.44
2960.20
3105.69
1749.43

1391.53
1753.27
1420.19
1947.34
2825.07
1553.53
1821.03
1612.07
1722.34

2014.85
2020.97
2027.08
2033.19
2039.30
2045.41
2051.52
2057.63
2063.74

2171.91
2305.37
1998.26
939.68
288.74
2633.25
3041.75
3190.98
1797.33

1855.38
2016.26
1927.40
2163.71
1412.54
1864.23
2158.25
2321.38
1837.16

2069.85
2075.97
2082.08
2088.19
2094.30
2100.41
2106.52
2112.63
2118.74

2231.20
2368.11
2052.47
965.10
296.53
2704.05
3123.30
3276.28
1845.23

1948.15
2191.58
1825.96
3029.20
1412.54
2019.58

2124.85
2130.97
2137.08
2143.19
2149.30
2155.41

2290.48
2430.85
2106.69
990.51
304.32
2774.86

1900
1500
1100
300
1900
2800
3100
1200
1500
2000
1400
900
400
2000
2700
2500
1500
2000
2300
1900
1000
200
2400
3200
3600
1600
2100
2500
1800
1400
200
2600

Santiago David Cueva Andrade

15
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
10
0
10
1
10
2
10
3
10
4
10
5
10
6
10
7
10
8
10
9
11
0
11
1
11
2
11
3

6-8 A.M.
8-10 A.M.

10-noon
noon-2
P.M.
2-4 P.M.
4-6 P.M.
6-8 P.M.
8-10 P.M.
4-6 A.M.
6-8 A.M.
8-10 A.M.

1
1

10-noon
noon-2
P.M.
2-4 P.M.
4-6 P.M.
6-8 P.M.
8-10 P.M.

1
2

2225.70
1998.96
229.65

2161.52
2167.63
2173.74

3204.84
3361.57
1893.13

2500

2319.22
2279.25
2434.62
2380.08
2825.07
2407.97
2630.37
2643.79
2526.10

2179.85
2185.97
2192.08
2198.19
2204.30
2210.41
2216.52
2222.63
2228.74

2349.77
2493.59
2160.91
1015.93
312.11
2845.67
3286.39
3446.86
1941.03

2411.99
2016.26
2536.06
2380.08
2118.81

2234.85
2240.97
2247.08
2253.19
2259.30

2409.06
2556.33
2215.13
1041.35
319.89

217.49

2265.41

2916.47

2293.15

2271.52

3367.94

2514.83

2277.63

3532.16

2181.63

2283.74

1988.93

1948.15

2289.85

2468.34

2191.58

2295.97

2619.07

2028.85

2302.08

2269.35

2596.45

2308.19

1066.77

2118.81

2314.30

327.68

2097.26

2320.41

2987.28

2562.93

2326.52

3449.49

2772.76

2332.63

3617.45

2411.28
2226.45

2338.74
2344.85

2036.83
2527.63

2600
2400
1100
400
3100
3900
4100
2200
2600
2300
2500
1100
300

4-6 A.M.

280

6-8 A.M.

3400

8-10 A.M.

3900

10-noon

1900

noon-2
P.M.

2100

2-4 P.M.

2500

4-6 P.M.

2000

6-8 P.M.

1200

8-10 P.M.

1
3

3300
3100
200

300

4-6 A.M.

2700

6-8 A.M.

3800

8-10 A.M.

4300

10-noon

2100

noon-2
P.M.

2400

Santiago David Cueva Andrade

16
11
4
11
5
11
6
11
7
11
8
11
9
12
0
12
1
12
2
12
3
12
4
12
5
12
6
12
7
12
8
12
9
13
0
13
1
13
2
13
3
13
4
13
5
13
6
13
7

2-4 P.M.

2400

4-6 P.M.

2400

6-8 P.M.

1200

8-10 P.M.

1
4

4-6 A.M.

2400

6-8 A.M.

3500

8-10 A.M.

4100

10-noon

2400

noon-2
P.M.

3000

2-4 P.M.

3200

4-6 P.M.

2600

6-8 P.M.

1200

8-10 P.M.

1
5

700

4-6 A.M.

3300

6-8 A.M.

3700

8-10 A.M.

4000

10-noon

2600

noon-2
P.M.

2600

2-4 P.M.

2700

4-6 P.M.

2900

6-8 P.M.

1000

8-10 P.M.

1
6

400

300

4-6 A.M.

3500

6-8 A.M.

4000

2103.92

2350.97

2681.81

2434.62

2357.08

2323.56

2596.45

2363.19

1092.19

2825.07

2369.30

335.47

1864.23

2375.41

3058.09

2360.59

2381.52

3531.03

2643.79

2387.63

3702.75

2755.75

2393.74

2084.73

2783.06

2399.85

2586.92

2805.23

2405.97

2744.55

2637.50

2412.08

2377.78

2596.45

2418.19

1117.61

4943.88

2424.30

343.25

2563.32

2430.41

3128.89

2495.48

2436.52

3612.58

2579.31

2442.63

3788.04

2985.39

2448.74

2132.63

2411.99

2454.85

2646.21

2366.91

2460.97

2807.29

2941.83

2467.08

2432.00

2163.71

2473.19

1143.03

2118.81

2479.30

351.04

2718.67
2697.82

2485.41
2491.52

3199.70
3694.13

Santiago David Cueva Andrade

17
13
8
13
9
14
0
14
1
14
2
14
3
14
4
14
5
14
6
14
7
14
8
14
9
15
0
15
1
15
2
15
3
15
4
15
5
15
6
15
7
15
8
15
9
16
0
16
1

1
7

8-10 A.M.

3800

10-noon

2300

noon-2
P.M.

2700

2-4 P.M.

3100

4-6 P.M.

3000

6-8 P.M.

900

8-10 P.M.

200

4-6 A.M.

2900

6-8 A.M.

4100

8-10 A.M.

3900

10-noon

2400

noon-2
P.M.

3000

2-4 P.M.

3200

4-6 P.M.

2500

6-8 P.M.

1100

8-10 P.M.

1
8

500

4-6 A.M.

3400

6-8 A.M.

3800

8-10 A.M.

4200

10-noon

2000

noon-2
P.M.

2500

2-4 P.M.

3000

4-6 P.M.

2200

6-8 P.M.

1000

2450.34

2497.63

3873.33

2640.92

2503.74

2180.53

2504.76

2509.85

2705.49

2717.56

2515.97

2870.03

3043.27

2522.08

2486.22

1947.34

2528.19

1168.45

1412.54

2534.30

358.83

2252.61

2540.41

3270.51

2765.26

2546.52

3775.67

2514.83

2552.63

3958.63

2755.75

2558.74

2228.43

2783.06

2564.85

2764.78

2805.23

2570.97

2932.77

2536.06

2577.08

2540.43

2380.08

2583.19

1193.87

3531.34

2589.30

366.62

2641.00

2595.41

3341.31

2562.93

2601.52

3857.22

2708.27

2607.63

4043.92

2296.46

2613.74

2276.33

2319.22

2619.85

2824.07

2629.90

2625.96

2995.51

2231.73

2632.08

2594.65

2163.71

2638.19

1219.29

Santiago David Cueva Andrade

18
16
2
16
3
16
4
16
5
16
6
16
7
16
8
16
9
17
0
17
1
17
2
17
3
17
4
17
5
17
6
17
7
17
8
17
9
18
0
18
1
18
2
18
3
18
4
18
5

8-10 P.M.

1
9

4-6 A.M.

3600

6-8 A.M.

3600

8-10 A.M.

4000

10-noon

2300

noon-2
P.M.

2600

2-4 P.M.

2800

4-6 P.M.

2600

6-8 P.M.

1200

8-10 P.M.

2
0

200

4-6 A.M.

3700

6-8 A.M.

3700

8-10 A.M.

4000

10-noon

2200

noon-2
P.M.

2600

2-4 P.M.

2700

4-6 P.M.

2400

6-8 P.M.

1200

8-10 P.M.

2
1

300

200

4-6 A.M.

4400

6-8 A.M.

4400

8-10 A.M.

4500

10-noon

2600

noon-2
P.M.

3300

2118.81

2644.30

374.40

2796.35

2650.41

3412.12

2428.04

2656.52

3938.77

2579.31

2662.63

4129.22

2640.92

2668.74

2324.23

2411.99

2674.85

2883.35

2454.57

2680.96

3058.25

2637.50

2687.08

2648.87

2596.45

2693.19

1244.71

1412.54

2699.30

382.19

2874.02

2705.41

3482.93

2495.48

2711.52

4020.32

2579.31

2717.63

4214.51

2526.10

2723.74

2372.13

2411.99

2729.85

2942.64

2366.91

2735.96

3120.99

2434.62

2742.08

2703.09

2596.45

2748.19

1270.13

1412.54

2754.30

389.98

3417.76

2760.41

3553.73

2967.60

2766.52

4101.86

2901.72

2772.63

4299.80

2985.39

2778.74

2420.03

3061.37

2784.85

3001.93

Santiago David Cueva Andrade

19
18
6
18
7
18
8
18
9
19
0
19
1
19
2
19
3
19
4
19
5
19
6
19
7
19
8
19
9
20
0
20
1
20
2
20
3
20
4
20
5
20
6
20
7
20
8
20
9

2-4 P.M.

3400

4-6 P.M.

3000

6-8 P.M.

1200

8-10 P.M.

2
2

4-6 A.M.

4200

6-8 A.M.

4500

8-10 A.M.

4300

10-noon

2500

noon-2
P.M.

3400

2-4 P.M.

3600

4-6 P.M.

2100

6-8 P.M.

1400

8-10 P.M.

2
3

300

4-6 A.M.

4500

6-8 A.M.

4500

8-10 A.M.

4700

10-noon

2700

noon-2
P.M.

3400

2-4 P.M.

3500

4-6 P.M.

2900

6-8 P.M.

1200

8-10 P.M.

2
4

400

300

4-6 A.M.

4600

6-8 A.M.

4600

2980.55

2790.96

3183.73

3043.27

2797.08

2757.31

2596.45

2803.19

1295.55

2825.07

2809.30

397.77

3262.41

2815.41

3624.54

3035.05

2821.52

4183.41

2772.76

2827.63

4385.10

2870.57

2833.74

2467.93

3154.14

2839.85

3061.22

3155.88

2845.96

3246.47

2130.29

2852.08

2811.52

3029.20

2858.19

1320.96

2118.81

2864.30

405.55

3495.43

2870.41

3695.35

3035.05

2876.52

4264.96

3030.69

2882.63

4470.39

3100.21

2888.74

2515.83

3154.14

2894.85

3120.50

3068.21

2900.96

3309.21

2941.83

2907.08

2865.74

2596.45

2913.19

1346.38

2118.81

2919.30

413.34

3573.11
3102.49

2925.41
2931.52

3766.15
4346.51

Santiago David Cueva Andrade

20
21
0
21
1
21
2
21
3
21
4
21
5
21
6
21
7
21
8
21
9
22
0
22
1
22
2
22
3
22
4
22
5
22
6
22
7
22
8
22
9
23
0
23
1
23
2
23
3

8-10 A.M.

4600

10-noon

2500

noon-2
P.M.

3200

2-4 P.M.

3500

4-6 P.M.

2800

6-8 P.M.

1300

8-10 P.M.

2
5

4-6 A.M.

4500

6-8 A.M.

4300

8-10 A.M.

4400

10-noon

2900

noon-2
P.M.

3300

2-4 P.M.

3400

4-6 P.M.

3300

6-8 P.M.

1500

8-10 P.M.

2
6

300

400

4-6 A.M.

4200

6-8 A.M.

4300

8-10 A.M.

4500

10-noon

3000

noon-2
P.M.

4000

2-4 P.M.

3400

4-6 P.M.

3000

6-8 P.M.

1500

2966.21

2937.63

4555.69

2870.57

2943.74

2563.73

2968.60

2949.85

3179.79

3068.21

2955.96

3371.95

2840.39

2962.08

2919.96

2812.83

2968.19

1371.80

2118.81

2974.30

421.13

3495.43

2980.41

3836.96

2900.15

2986.52

4428.05

2837.24

2992.63

4640.98

3329.86

2998.74

2611.63

3061.37

3004.85

3239.08

2980.55

3010.96

3434.69

3347.60

3017.08

2974.18

3245.57

3023.19

1397.22

2825.07

3029.30

428.92

3262.41

3035.41

3907.77

2900.15

3041.52

4509.60

2901.72

3047.63

4726.27

3444.68

3053.74

2659.53

3710.75

3059.85

3298.36

2980.55

3065.96

3497.43

3043.27
3245.57

3072.08
3078.19

3028.40
1422.64

Santiago David Cueva Andrade

21
23
4
23
5
23
6
23
7
23
8
23
9
24
0
24
1
24
2
24
3
24
4
24
5
24
6
24
7
24
8
24
9
25
0
25
1
25
2
25
3
25
4
25
5
25
6
25
7

8-10 P.M.

2
7

4-6 A.M.

4500

6-8 A.M.

4500

8-10 A.M.

5100

10-noon

3300

noon-2
P.M.

4000

2-4 P.M.

3700

4-6 P.M.

3100

6-8 P.M.

1200

8-10 P.M.

2
8

300

4-6 A.M.

4300

6-8 A.M.

4200

8-10 A.M.

4300

10-noon

2800

noon-2
P.M.

3500

2-4 P.M.

4000

4-6 P.M.

3300

6-8 P.M.

1100

8-10 P.M.

2
9

600

400

4-6 A.M.

4900

6-8 A.M.

4100

8-10 A.M.

4200

10-noon

3100

noon-2
P.M.

3600

4237.61

3084.30

436.70

3495.43

3090.41

3978.57

3035.05

3096.52

4591.15

3288.62

3102.63

4811.57

3789.15

3108.74

2707.43

3710.75

3114.85

3357.65

3243.54

3120.96

3560.17

3144.71

3127.08

3082.61

2596.45

3133.19

1448.06

2118.81

3139.30

444.49

3340.08

3145.41

4049.38

2832.71

3151.52

4672.69

2772.76

3157.63

4896.86

3215.04

3163.74

2755.33

3246.91

3169.85

3416.94

3506.53

3175.96

3622.91

3347.60

3182.08

3136.83

2380.08

3188.19

1473.48

2825.07

3194.30

452.28

3806.14

3200.41

4120.18

2765.26

3206.52

4754.24

2708.27

3212.63

4982.16

3559.51
3339.68

3218.74
3224.85

2803.23
3476.22

Santiago David Cueva Andrade

22
25
8
25
9
26
0
26
1
26
2
26
3
26
4
26
5
26
6
26
7
26
8
26
9
27
0

2-4 P.M.

3900

4-6 P.M.

3400

6-8 P.M.

1400

8-10 P.M.

3
0

500

4-6 A.M.

4700

6-8 A.M.

4500

8-10 A.M.

4100

10-noon

3000

noon-2
P.M.

4000

2-4 P.M.

3700

4-6 P.M.

3400

6-8 P.M.

1200

8-10 P.M.

500

3418.87

3230.96

3685.65

3449.04

3237.07

3191.05

3029.20

3243.19

1498.90

3531.34

3249.30

460.07

3650.79

3255.41

4190.99

3035.05

3261.52

4835.79

2643.79

3267.63

5067.45

3444.68

3273.74

2851.13

3710.75

3279.85

3535.51

3243.54

3285.96

3748.39

3449.04

3292.07

3245.27

2596.45

3298.19

1524.32

3531.34

3304.30

467.85

Santiago David Cueva Andrade

23

Regresin Lineal
6000

5000

4000

f(x) = 6.11x + 1654.35

R = 0.51

3000

2000

1000

50

100

150

200

250

300

Linear ()

Pronstico por Descomposicin

6000.00

6000

5000.00

5000

4000.00

4000

3000.00

3000

2000.00

2000

1000.00

1000

0.00

50

100
Pro. Reg. De Vuelo

150

200

250

Registro de Vuelos H.

0
300

Santiago David Cueva Andrade

24

Da
y
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40

4-6
A.M.

6-8
A.M.

2373.
65
2381.
52
2389.
39
2397.
26
2405.
13
2412.
99
2420.
86
2428.
73
2436.
60
2444.
47

8-10
A.M.

2733.
68
2742.
74
2751.
80
2760.
86
2769.
93
2778.
99
2788.
05
2797.
11
2806.
17
2815.
23

2859.
28
2868.
76
2878.
24
2887.
72
2897.
19
2906.
67
2916.
15
2925.
62
2935.
10
2944.
58

10noon

1605.
73
1611.
05
1616.
37
1621.
70
1627.
02
1632.
34
1637.
66
1642.
99
1648.
31
1653.
63

noon-2
P.M.

1987.
46
1994.
05
2000.
64
2007.
22
2013.
81
2020.
40
2026.
99
2033.
57
2040.
16
2046.
75

2-4 P.M.

2103.21
2110.18
2117.15
2124.12
2131.10
2138.07
2145.04
2152.01
2158.98
2165.95

4-6 P.M.

1817.5
3
1823.5
5
1829.5
8
1835.6
0
1841.6
3
1847.6
5
1853.6
7
1859.7
0
1865.7
2
1871.7
5

6-8 P.M.

8-10 P.M.

852.12

261.05

854.95

261.92

857.77

262.78

860.59

263.65

863.42

264.52

866.24

265.38

869.07

266.25

871.89

267.11

874.72

267.98

877.54

268.84

Debido al anlisis del grfico lo ms factible fue utilizar es un modelo de pronostico por
descomposicin de series de tiempo.

Citas Bibliogrficas

Roberta S. Russell - Bernard W. Taylor.. (2000). Demand Management. En Forecasting. (70 -97). New Jersey:
Prentice Hall.
Jacobs F Robert Berry William Lee Whybark D Clay Vollmann Thomas E. (2011). Forecasting. En
Manufacturing Planning and Control for Supply Chain Management (53-78). U.S.A: McGraw-Hill Digital .