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P ( x )=
N!
( P X )(q nx )
X ! (NX )!
SOLUCIN:
(a)
1/2
6!
P ( 0 )=
(1 /2)0
0 ! ( 60 )
P ( 0 )=
720
(1/ 1)[(1/ 2)]
1( 6 )
P ( 0 )=
720
(1/1)[(1 /64 )]
1 ( 720 )
P ( 0 )=
720
(1/1)[(1/64)]
720
P ( 0 )=(1)(1/1)[(1/64)]
P ( 0 )=1/ 64
(b)
1/2
6!
1
P (1 ) =
(1/2)
1 ! ( 61 )
P (1 ) =
720
5
(1 /2)[(1/ 2) ]
1 (5)
P (1 ) =
720
(1/ 2)(1/32)
1 ( 120 )
P (1 ) =
720
(1/2)(1/32)
120
P (1 ) =(6)(1/2)(1/32)
P (1 ) =6/64
P (1 ) =3/32
(c)
1/2
6!
2
P (2 )=
(1/2)
2 ! ( 62 )
P ( 2 )=
720
(1 / 4)[(1/2)4 ]
2 (4 )
P (2 )=
720
(1/ 4)(1/ 16)
2 ( 24 )
P (2 )=
720
(1/ 4)(1/16)
48
P (2 )=(15)(1/4 )(1/16)
P (2 )=15/64
(d)
1/2
6!
3
P (3 )=
(1/2)
3! (63 )
P (3 )=
720
3
(1/ 8)[(1/2) ]
6 (4 )
P (3 )=
720
(1/8)( 1/8)
6 (6)
P (3 )=
720
(1 /8)(1/8)
36
P (3 )=(20)(1 /8)(1/8)
P (3 )=20/ 64
P (3 )=5/16
(e)
1/2
6!
P ( 4 )=
(1 /2)4
(
)
4 ! 64
P ( 4 )=
720
2
(1/16)[(1/ 2) ]
24 ( 2 )
P ( 4 )=
720
(1/ 16)(1/ 4 )
24 ( 2 )
P ( 4 )=
720
(1/16)(1/4 )
48
P ( 4 )=(15)(1/16)(1/4 )
P ( 4 )=15/64
(f)
1/2
6!
P (5 )=
(1/2)5
5! ( 65 )
P (5 )=
720
1
(1/ 32)[(1 /2) ]
120 ( 1 )
P ( 5 )=
720
(1/32)(1 /2)
120 ( 1 )
P (5 )=
720
(1 /32)(1/ 2)
120
P (5 )=6 /64
P (5 )=3/32
(g)
1 /2
6!
P (6 )=
(1 /2)6
6 ! ( 66 )
P (6 )=
720
0
(1/64)[(1/2) ]
720 ( 0 )
P (6 )=
720
(1/ 64)(1/ 1)
720 (1 )
P ( 6 )=
720
( 1/64)(1/1)
720
P (6 )=(1)(1/64)(1 /1)
P (6 )=1/64
Resultado:
Caras
X
P(x)
1/64
6/64
15/6
4
20/6
4
15/6
4
6/64
1/6
4
nORr = nr
nORr = 210
nORr = 1024
R= X = nmero de caras
R= Sx = { 6,7,8,9,10 } Contestar 6 respuestas por lo menos
R= Modelo binomial porque tiene dos resultados ya sea verdadero y falso.
P = xito (1/2)
q = fracaso (1/2)
N = Cuantas monedas 10
FORMULA:
P ( x )=
N!
( P X )(q nx )
X ! (NX )!
(a)
1/2
10!
P (6 )=
(1/2)6
6 ! ( 106 )
P (6 )=
3628800
4
( 1/64 )[(1/ 2) ]
720 ( 4 )
P (6 )=
3628800
( 1/64 )(1/16)
720 ( 24 )
P (6 )=
3628800
( 1/64 )(1/16)
17280
P (6 )=(210)( 1/64)(1/16)
P (6 )=210 /1024
P (6 )=105 /512
(b)
1/2
10 !
7
P (7 )=
(1/2)
(
)
7 ! 107
P ( 7 )=
3628800
(1/128)[(1/2)3 ]
5040 ( 3 )
P (7 )=
3628800
(1 /128)(1/ 8)
5040 ( 6 )
P (7 )=
3628800
(1 /128)(1/8)
30240
P (7 )=(120)(1 /128)(1/8)
P (7 )=120/1024
P (7 )=15/ 128
(c)
1/2
10 !
P ( 8 )=
(1/2)8
8 ! ( 108 )
P ( 8 )=
3628800
2
(1 /256)[(1 /2) ]
40320 ( 2 )
P ( 8 )=
3628800
(1/256)(1 / 4)
40320 ( 2 )
P ( 8 )=
3628800
(1 /256)(1 /4)
80640
P ( 8 )=(45)(1/256)(1/4)
P ( 8 )=45/1024
(c)
1/2
10!
P ( 9 )=
(1/2)9
9 ! ( 109 )
P ( 9 )=
3628800
(1/256)[(1/2)1 ]
362880 (2 )
P ( 9 )=
3628800
(1/ 256)(1/ 2)
362880 (2 )
P ( 9 )=
3628800
(1/256)(1 /2)
725760
P ( 9 )=5 /512
(d)
1/2
10!
9
P ( 9 )=
(1/2)
9 ! ( 109 )
P ( 9 )=
3628800
1
(1/256)[(1/ 2) ]
362880 (2 )
P ( 9 )=
3628800
(1/256)(1/2)
362880 (2 )
P ( 9 )=
3628800
(1/256)(1 /2)
725760
P ( 9 )=5 /512
(e)
1 /2
10 !
10
P (10 )=
(1/2)
10 ! ( 109 )
P (10 )=
3628800
0
(1/1024 )[(1/ 1) ]
3628800 ( 1 )
P (10 )=
3628800
(1/1024)(1/ 1)
3628800 ( 1 )
P (10 )=
3628800
(1/1024)(1/1)
3628800
P (10 )=(1)(1/1024)(1/1)
P(x)
6
105/5
12
7
15/12
8
8
45/102
4
9
5/512
10
1/1024
Solucin
=
193/51
2
DISTRIBUCIN NORMAL
X = 1.28 (9) + 72
X = 11.52 + 72
X = 83.52
X=84
2. Hallar (a) la media y (b) la desviacin tpica de un examen en e que as
puntuaciones de 70 y 88 tienen una referencias tipificadas de -0.6 y 1.4
respectivamente.
DATOS:
X1 = 70
Z1 = -0.6
X2 = 88
Z2 = 1.4
Frmulas:
=X Z
Solucin:
= X 1 - Z1
= 70 (-0.6)
= 70 + 0.6
= X 2 Z2
= 88 1.4
= X 1 - Z1
= 70 +0.6 (9)
= 70 + 5.4
=75.4
70 + 0.6 = 88 1.4
0.6 + 1.4 = 88 70
2 = 18
= 18/2
=9
= X2 Z2
= 88 -1.4 (9)
= 88 -12.6
=75.4
T=
X =+ Z
Solucin:
(a)
(b)
9378
T=
10
T=
15
10
T =1.5
T=
6278
10
T=
16
10
T =1.6
(X1)
(X2)
X 1=+Z
X 2=+ Z
X 1=78+(0.6)(10)
X 2=78+(1.2)( 10)
X 1=786
X 2=78+12
X 1=72
X 2=90
DISTRIBUCIN DE POISSON
1. Si 3% de las lmparas elctricas producidas por una compaa son
defectuosas, hallar la probabilidad de que en una muestra de 100 lmparas
elctricas (a) 0, (b) 1, (c) 2, (d) 3, (e) 4, (f) 5 lmparas sean defectuosas.
Resultado:
p (Lmparas defectuosas) 3%
Ejemplo de muestra: n=100
Entonces m=n.p
m=100 x
3
100
m=3
Formula principal:
P ( r )=
em mr
r!
Solucin:
P ( 0 )=
(b) P (1 ) =
(a)
(c)
(d) P (3 )=
(e)
P ( 4 )=
(f)
P (5 )=
e-3= 0.0498
Solucin:
P( X > 5) = 1-P( X5) = 1-(P(0)+P(1)+P(2)+P(3)+P(4)+P(5))
(a) La probabilidad que debemos obtener es la siguiente:
1{
10.0498 [18.4 ]
10.91632
P( X >5)=0.08368
(b) La probabilidad que debemos obtener es la siguiente:
P(entre 1 y 3)= P(1)+P(2)+P(3)= 0.1494 + 0.2241 + 0.2241= 0.5976
P(entre 1 y 3)= 0.5976
(c) La probabilidad que debemos obtener es la siguiente:
P( 2)= P(0)+P(1)+P(2)= 0.0498 + 0.1494 + 0.2241 = 0.4232
P( 2)= 0.4232
c)
d)
e)
f)
Respuesta:
Realizamos una recopilacin de datos del enunciado del problema:
X = N de ahogados en accidentes por ao.
La variable aleatoria X sigue una distribucin Poisson: X ~ P(3)
ahogados/(100000 personas).
Debemos adaptar nuestro parmetro promedio ya que el estudio est basado
en una poblacin de 200000 personas:
3 100000
200000
Por lo tanto, el nmero medio de ahogados en accidentes por cada 200000
personas:
= (3200000)/100000 = 6
(a) La probabilidad que debemos obtener es la siguiente:
6
P ( X=0 )=
e 6 0.0024791 0.00247
=
=
=0.00248
0!
0!
1
P ( X=2 ) =
e 6 0.00247936 0.08924
=
=
=0.04462
2!
2!
2
P ( X=6 )=
e 6 0.00247946656 115.66022
=
=
=0.1607
6!
6!
720
P ( X=8 )=
e 6 0.0024791679616 4163.768064
=
=
=0.1033
8!
8!
40320
P ( X=4 ) =
e 6 0.0024791296 3.212784
=
=
=0.1339
4!
4!
24
P ( X=5 ) =
P ( X=7 )=
Aplicando:
P(4 X 8) = P(X = 4) + P(X = 5) + P(X = 6) + P(X = 7) + P(X = 8), tenemos:
P(4 X 8) = 0.1339 + 0.1607 + 0.1607 + 0.1377 + 0.1033 = 0,6964
Por lo tanto, la probabilidad de que entre 4 y ocho sean los ahogados por ao
es de aproximadamente 0,6964.
(f) La probabilidad que debemos obtener es la siguiente:
P( 2)= P(0)+P(1)+P(2)=
Para ello calculamos la probabilidad en funcin de 1 que es el valor que nos
falta:
P ( X=1 )=
Aplicando:
P( < 3)= P(0)+P(1)+P(2)=
P( < 3)= 0.00248 + 0.0145 + 0.04462 =0.0620