IMPORTACIONES POR USO O DESTINO ECONOMICO (1957-2006) (1)

MILES DE DLARES CIF

Y
X2
X3
AOS
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996

TOTAL
TOTAL IMPORTACIONES IMPORTACIONES
MATERIA PRIMA
91880
87243
92164
102202
100784
97776
110531
138159
165465
174129
214210
255465
241838
273849
340104
318599
397282
958488
943244
993123
1508357
1630202
1985599
2249519
2246162
1988374
1464954
1715777
1766725
1810224
2158137
1713525
1854781
1865127
2399041
2430977
2562223
3622018
4152636
3931720

44132.33333
41072.5
42616.5
47681.8
47882.14286
48131
52601
66412.33333
70133
81885
91755
130631
114321
137070
158592
135042
173829
435295
375260
445805
602796
609697
831319
942978
922676
917310
843393
960700
890411
851239
917928
820929
981746
979466
1169940
1024918
946261
1317667
1709161
1758673

TOTAL DE
IMPORTACIONES DE
BIENES DE CAPITAL
28661.66667
28095.5
30209.66667
31777.4
31261.14286
29128
32863
43712.33333
51877
52724
68027
77930
75925
82047
114349
125687
147856
388570
448295
438294
724435
826933
955343
1016705
1085516
815733
402782
588331
525524
672127
732019
665772
608546
609325
887602
917007
984269
1390088
1378174
1153048

1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

4954832
5575735
3017255
3721200.93
5362856.07
5953427
6702742
8226264
10286885
12113561
13893461
18685546
15093165

1996345
2205047
1335476
1657763.75
1983211.13
2112599
2221492
2839523
3241816
3804390
4514037
6397490
5021131

1480539
1873512
815058
941847.49
1660999.69
1919788
1795161
2055476
2713119
3002127
3511785
4767665
4120144

PRUEBA DE RACHAS

Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin0.994380842
mltiple
Coeficiente de determinacin
0.988793258
R^2
R^2 ajustado
0.988344988
Error tpico
444725.4198
Observaciones
53
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados
Regresin
2
8.72529E+14
4.36265E+14
Residuos
50
9.88903E+12
1.97781E+11
Total
52
8.82418E+14

Intercepcin
Variable X 1
Variable X 2

Coeficientes
-457812.1319
2.191216754
1.061527402

Error tpico
82088.39896
0.297831479
0.380176306

Anlisis de los residuales

Observacin
1
2
3

Pronstico para Y
-330683.4791
-337989.2386
-332361.7541

Residuos
422563.4791
425232.2386
424525.7541

F
2205.8

Estadstico t
Probabilidad
-5.577062504 9.8648E-07
7.357236931 1.6592E-09
2.792197687 0.00739703

4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50

-319598.392
-319707.4185
-321426.5081
-307666.9644
-265886.4748
-249066.6703
-222416.3773
-184544.5141
-88846.46569
-126713.5734
-70366.9127
11081.91241
-28485.64446
80038.08073
908491.2674
840341.2937
984304.3441
1632052.166
1755978.188
2377910.761
2687717.277
2716275.957
2418135.841
1817808.87
2271819.281
2051129.495
2120918.254
2330625.308
2047756.468
2339394.405
2335225.361
3047993.842
2761433.419
2660479.339
3905098.377
4750299.552
4619813.658
5488245.196
6362708.123
3333711.655
4174504.49
5651030.008
6209257.758
6315570.949
7946142.336
9525759.563
11065271.05

421800.392
420491.4185
419202.5081
418197.9644
404045.4748
414531.6703
396545.3773
398754.5141
344311.4657
368551.5734
344215.9127
329022.0876
347084.6445
317243.9193
49996.73255
102902.7063
8818.655948
-123695.1657
-125776.1881
-392311.7612
-438198.2771
-470113.9566
-429761.8405
-352854.8696
-556042.2812
-284404.4953
-310694.2543
-172488.3075
-334231.4679
-484613.4055
-470098.3611
-648952.8418
-330456.419
-98256.33892
-283080.3772
-597663.5515
-688093.6576
-533413.1962
-786973.1228
-316456.6545
-453303.5598
-288173.9376
-255830.7584
387171.0512
280121.6641
761125.4375
1048289.952

51
52
53
n1 =
n2 =
n=
n2 =

732183.624
64063.82225
174945.0069

27
26
53
2809

E ( R) =

13161277.38
18621482.18
14918219.99

2n1 n2
1
n

2 n1 n 2 ( 2 n1 n 2 n )
n 2 ( n 1)

s=

27.49056604

1896804
146068

12.98576006

Ls
Li

34.55344523
20.42768684

3.60357601

E (R) Z /2 *s
Z=

1404
53

1.959963985

DECISIN.-

Se concluye que existe autocorrelacin porque el nmero de rachas, que es 3, cay en la cola izq

PRUEBA DE DURBIN-WATSON
Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin0.994380842
mltiple
Coeficiente de determinacin
0.988793258
R^2
R^2 ajustado
0.988344988
Error tpico
444725.4198
Observaciones
53
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados
Regresin
2
8.72529E+14
4.36265E+14
Residuos
50
9.88903E+12
1.97781E+11
Total
52
8.82418E+14

Intercepcin

Coeficientes
-457812.1319

Error tpico
82088.39896

F
2205.8

Estadstico t
Probabilidad
-5.577062504 9.8648E-07

Variable X 1
Variable X 2

2.191216754
1.061527402

0.297831479
0.380176306

Pronstico para Y
-330683.4791
-337989.2386
-332361.7541
-319598.392
-319707.4185
-321426.5081
-307666.9644
-265886.4748
-249066.6703
-222416.3773
-184544.5141
-88846.46569
-126713.5734
-70366.9127
11081.91241
-28485.64446
80038.08073
908491.2674
840341.2937
984304.3441
1632052.166
1755978.188
2377910.761
2687717.277
2716275.957
2418135.841
1817808.87
2271819.281
2051129.495
2120918.254
2330625.308
2047756.468
2339394.405
2335225.361
3047993.842
2761433.419
2660479.339
3905098.377

Residuos
422563.4791
425232.2386
424525.7541
421800.392
420491.4185
419202.5081
418197.9644
404045.4748
414531.6703
396545.3773
398754.5141
344311.4657
368551.5734
344215.9127
329022.0876
347084.6445
317243.9193
49996.73255
102902.7063
8818.655948
-123695.1657
-125776.1881
-392311.7612
-438198.2771
-470113.9566
-429761.8405
-352854.8696
-556042.2812
-284404.4953
-310694.2543
-172488.3075
-334231.4679
-484613.4055
-470098.3611
-648952.8418
-330456.419
-98256.33892
-283080.3772

7.357236931
2.792197687

1.6592E-09
0.00739703

Anlisis de los residuales

Observacin
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38

mt2

mt-1

1.7856E+11
1.80822E+11
1.80222E+11
1.77916E+11
1.76813E+11
1.75731E+11
1.7489E+11
1.63253E+11
1.71837E+11
1.57248E+11
1.59005E+11
1.1855E+11
1.3583E+11
1.18485E+11
1.08256E+11
1.20468E+11
1.00644E+11
2499673266
10588966963
77768692.73
15300494017
15819649502
1.53909E+11
1.92018E+11
2.21007E+11
1.84695E+11
1.24507E+11
3.09183E+11
80885916955
96530919663
29752216241
1.11711E+11
2.3485E+11
2.20992E+11
4.2114E+11
1.09201E+11
9654308138
80134499955

422563.479
425232.239
424525.754
421800.392
420491.418
419202.508
418197.964
404045.475
414531.67
396545.377
398754.514
344311.466
368551.573
344215.913
329022.088
347084.644
317243.919
49996.7326
102902.706
8818.65595
-123695.166
-125776.188
-392311.761
-438198.277
-470113.957
-429761.841
-352854.87
-556042.281
-284404.495
-310694.254
-172488.308
-334231.468
-484613.405
-470098.361
-648952.842
-330456.419
-98256.3389

39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53

4750299.552
4619813.658
5488245.196
6362708.123
3333711.655
4174504.49
5651030.008
6209257.758
6315570.949
7946142.336
9525759.563
11065271.05
13161277.38
18621482.18
14918219.99
SUMA

-597663.5515
-688093.6576
-533413.1962
-786973.1228
-316456.6545
-453303.5598
-288173.9376
-255830.7584
387171.0512
280121.6641
761125.4375
1048289.952
732183.624
64063.82225
174945.0069
8.3819E-09

3.57202E+11
4.73473E+11
2.8453E+11
6.19327E+11
1.00145E+11
2.05484E+11
83044218304
65449376930
1.49901E+11
78468146671
5.79312E+11
1.09891E+12
5.36093E+11
4104173321
30605755438
9.88903E+12

-283080.377
-597663.552
-688093.658
-533413.196
-786973.123
-316456.655
-453303.56
-288173.938
-255830.758
387171.051
280121.664
761125.437
1048289.95
732183.624
64063.8222
-174945.007

Ho: No autocorrelacin
H1: Autocorrelacin

(m m
d=
m
t

t 1

)2
0.2562

0.2562

dl
du

1.490
1.641

1.490

DECISIN.El estadstico d = 0,2562 cay en zona de decisin concluyendo que hay autocorrelacin
PRUEBA BG
Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin0.994380842
mltiple
Coeficiente de determinacin
0.988793258
R^2
R^2 ajustado
0.988344988
Error tpico
444725.4198
Observaciones
53
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados
Regresin
2
8.72529E+14
4.36265E+14
Residuos
50
9.88903E+12
1.97781E+11

F
2205.8

Total

Intercepcin
Variable X 1
Variable X 2

52

8.82418E+14

Coeficientes
-457812.1319
2.191216754
1.061527402

Error tpico
82088.39896
0.297831479
0.380176306

Anlisis de los residuales

Observacin
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34

Pronstico para Y
-330683.4791
-337989.2386
-332361.7541
-319598.392
-319707.4185
-321426.5081
-307666.9644
-265886.4748
-249066.6703
-222416.3773
-184544.5141
-88846.46569
-126713.5734
-70366.9127
11081.91241
-28485.64446
80038.08073
908491.2674
840341.2937
984304.3441
1632052.166
1755978.188
2377910.761
2687717.277
2716275.957
2418135.841
1817808.87
2271819.281
2051129.495
2120918.254
2330625.308
2047756.468
2339394.405
2335225.361

Estadstico t
Probabilidad
-5.577062504 9.8648E-07
7.357236931 1.6592E-09
2.792197687 0.00739703

Y
mt
Residuos
422563.4791
425232.2386
424525.7541
421800.392
420491.4185
419202.5081
418197.9644
404045.4748
414531.6703
396545.3773
398754.5141
344311.4657
368551.5734
344215.9127
329022.0876
347084.6445
317243.9193
49996.73255
102902.7063
8818.655948
-123695.1657
-125776.1881
-392311.7612
-438198.2771
-470113.9566
-429761.8405
-352854.8696
-556042.2812
-284404.4953
-310694.2543
-172488.3075
-334231.4679
-484613.4055
-470098.3611

X2
44132.33333
41072.5
42616.5
47681.8
47882.14286
48131
52601
66412.33333
70133
81885
91755
130631
114321
137070
158592
135042
173829
435295
375260
445805
602796
609697
831319
942978
922676
917310
843393
960700
890411
851239
917928
820929
981746
979466

X3
28661.6667
28095.5
30209.6667
31777.4
31261.1429
29128
32863
43712.3333
51877
52724
68027
77930
75925
82047
114349
125687
147856
388570
448295
438294
724435
826933
955343
1016705
1085516
815733
402782
588331
525524
672127
732019
665772
608546
609325

35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
Hiptesis:
Ho: P1 = P2 = = PP = 0
Ho: P1 P2 PP 1

3047993.842
2761433.419
2660479.339
3905098.377
4750299.552
4619813.658
5488245.196
6362708.123
3333711.655
4174504.49
5651030.008
6209257.758
6315570.949
7946142.336
9525759.563
11065271.05
13161277.38
18621482.18
14918219.99

-648952.8418
-330456.419
-98256.33892
-283080.3772
-597663.5515
-688093.6576
-533413.1962
-786973.1228
-316456.6545
-453303.5598
-288173.9376
-255830.7584
387171.0512
280121.6641
761125.4375
1048289.952
732183.624
64063.82225
174945.0069

1169940
1024918
946261
1317667
1709161
1758673
1996345
2205047
1335476
1657763.75
1983211.13
2112599
2221492
2839523
3241816
3804390
4514037
6397490
5021131

887602
917007
984269
1390088
1378174
1153048
1480539
1873512
815058
941847.49
1660999.69
1919788
1795161
2055476
2713119
3002127
3511785
4767665
4120144

AS

Valor crtico de F
1.7258E-49

Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95,0%Superior 95,0%

-622691.534 -292932.73 -622691.534 -292932.73
1.59300462 2.78942888 1.59300462 2.78942888
0.29792082 1.82513399 0.29792082 1.82513399

27.49
Li
20.43

Ls
34.55

e es 3, cay en la cola izquierda.

ATSON

Valor crtico de F
1.7258E-49

Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95,0%Superior 95,0%

-622691.534 -292932.73 -622691.534 -292932.73

1.59300462
0.29792082

(mt - mt-1)2
1.7856E+11
7122277.24
499120.372
7427598.66
1713411.68
1661289.88
1009108.11
200292962
109960295
323506736
4880285.45
2964045517
587582821
592224381
230852321
326255961
890468880
7.1421E+10
2799042058
8851808530
1.756E+10
4330654.4
7.1041E+10
2105572344
1018610598
1628293276
5914682167
4.1285E+10
7.3787E+10
691151428
1.9101E+10
2.6161E+10
2.2615E+10
210686513
3.1989E+10
1.0144E+11
5.3917E+10
3.416E+10

2.78942888 1.59300462
1.82513399 0.29792082

2.78942888
1.82513399

9.8963E+10
8177604084
2.3926E+10
6.4293E+10
2.2139E+11
1.8727E+10
2.7268E+10
1046081242
4.1345E+11
1.146E+10
2.3136E+11
8.2463E+10
9.9923E+10
4.4638E+11
1.2295E+10
2.5336E+12

1.641

autocorrelacin

Valor crtico de F
1.7258E-49

Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95,0%Superior 95,0%

-622691.534 -292932.73 -622691.534 -292932.73
1.59300462 2.78942888 1.59300462 2.78942888
0.29792082 1.82513399 0.29792082 1.82513399

X2

X3

mt-1

mt-2

0
422563.479
425232.239
424525.754
421800.392
420491.418
419202.508
418197.964
404045.475
414531.67
396545.377
398754.514
344311.466
368551.573
344215.913
329022.088
347084.644
317243.919
49996.7326
102902.706
8818.65595
-123695.166
-125776.188
-392311.761
-438198.277
-470113.957
-429761.841
-352854.87
-556042.281
-284404.495
-310694.254
-172488.308
-334231.468
-484613.405

0
0
422563.479
425232.239
424525.754
421800.392
420491.418
419202.508
418197.964
404045.475
414531.67
396545.377
398754.514
344311.466
368551.573
344215.913
329022.088
347084.644
317243.919
49996.7326
102902.706
8818.65595
-123695.166
-125776.188
-392311.761
-438198.277
-470113.957
-429761.841
-352854.87
-556042.281
-284404.495
-310694.254
-172488.308
-334231.468

-470098.361
-648952.842
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