ECONOMETRIA I

PROYECTO PRIMER
PARCIAL
ANLISIS DE REGRESIN MLTIPLE

2014

MICHELLE CASQUETE
DANIEL CHOCA
MA. ALEJANDRA RUANO
DENISSE TUCUNANGO

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CONTENIDO
1.

INTRODUCCIN ................................................................................................ 3

2.

DATOS .............................................................................................................. 6

2.1.

METODOLOGA ................................................................................................. 6

2.2.

VARIABLES ........................................................................................................ 7

3.

RESULTADOS .................................................................................................... 8

4.

ANLISIS DE COEFICIENTES Y SIGNIFICANCIA ................................................... 11

4.1

COEFICIENTES ................................................................................................. 11

4.2

SIGNIFICANCIA ................................................................................................ 12

4.2.1

Prueba de Hiptesis ........................................................................................ 12

4.2.2

Valor P............................................................................................................ 14

4.2.3

Intervalo de confianza ..................................................................................... 15

4.2.4

Bondad de ajuste ............................................................................................ 15

5.

CONCLUSIONES ............................................................................................... 16

6.

RECOMENDACIONES ....................................................................................... 16

7.

REFERENCIAS Y BIBLIOGRAFA ......................................................................... 17

8.

ANEXOS .......................................................................................................... 18

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1. INTRODUCCION
Para la elaboracin del proyecto que se trata de un estudio de como depende la nota de
ciencias naturales con respecto a las siguientes variables:

Notas en lectura

Notas en escritura

Motivacin

El auto concepto

El locus de control

Daremos a conocer el significado de cada variable y el cmo afecta a nuestra variable

dependiente.
La lectura es considerada como la herramienta ms importante del aprendizaje porque
orienta y estructura el pensamiento. Leer es comprender, interpretar y relacionar un texto
y es ms eficaz si se lo relaciona con otros conocimientos y experiencias; El trmino "leer"
se refiere al proceso de comprender el material que se encuentra escrito, teniendo como
objetivo encontrar su significado.
Por medio de este significado podemos apreciar que la lectura afecta directamente en las
notas de ciencias naturales ya que si el alumno no sabe leer o tiene dificultades en su
lectura afectar en su nota ya que no podr comprender la materia.
La escritura hoy es entendida como un proceso comunicativo regido por variables
cognitivas y sociales determinadas y constituye un instrumento ptimo para el desarrollo
de la funcin representativa del lenguaje, donde el escritor construye una representacin
mental de la tarea; as entonces los escritores expertos pueden operar con
representaciones mentales de diferentes niveles, por ejemplo, las estructuras textuales y
la intencin pragmtica del texto.

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Mediante las observaciones realizadas a los estudiantes se presentan deficiencias en el

rea de escritura, son un gran obstculo que no les permite a los mismos el
desenvolvimiento pleno de sus destrezas al momento de adquirir los nuevos
conocimientos.
En este sentido vemos nios con capacidad limitada para detallar, relacionar y determinar
propiedades de los objetos. Adems de deficiencia para recordar conocimientos y para
comparar conceptos. En algunas actividades se enfatizaron sus limitaciones para describir
caractersticas fundamentales de los objetos.
La motivacin es lo que mueve a la persona en una direccin y con una finalidad
determinada; es la disposicin al esfuerzo mantenido por conseguir una meta. Constituye,
por tanto, un factor que condiciona la capacidad para aprender.
Se define el autoconcepto acadmico como la percepcin del alumno acerca de su propia
capacidad para llevar a cabo determinadas actividades y tareas escolares, o como la visin
que tiene cada persona de s misma como estudiante.
Para la formacin del autoconcepto acadmico, el alumno/a utiliza varios procesos:
- Comparacin personal, interpretando los resultados obtenidos a partir de rendimientos
previos en esa materia o en materias similares. Adems el alumno/a analiza estos
resultados en base a las materias suscitadas (objetivos, aspiraciones...) y al esfuerzo
realizado.
- Comparacin social. Los alumnos/as formulan su autoconcepto acadmico teniendo en
consideracin la capacidad media del grupo al que pertenecen. Ya que tanto profesores
como compaeros desempean una funcin importante en la formacin del
autoconcepto.
- Percepciones de padres, profesores y compaeros. Las percepciones de padres,
profesores y compaeros son tambin un elemento que influye en la percepcin del
autoconcepto. Las expectativas y percepciones positivas que muestran los padres hacia las
capacidades de sus hijos/as se relacionan con conductas que favorecen el aprendizaje.
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El lugar de control o locus de control Es una variable que representa la atribucin que una
persona lleva a cabo sobre si el esfuerzo que realiza es o no contingente a su conducta. No
se refiere a la correlacin real entre conducta y acontecimiento: la atribucin puede o no
corresponderse con la realidad, pero lo que cuenta de cara a las expectativas que
despierta en la persona sobre sus posibilidades para influir en el curso de los
acontecimientos, es precisamente esa percepcin subjetiva.
Se trata de un factor incluido dentro de los estilos atribucionales, y es una variable
dicotmica: la persona puede percibir determinados xitos o fracasos como resultado de
factores internos, como son el esfuerzo personal, la vala, las propias habilidades o la
inteligencia, etc., o externos, como la elevada dificultad de la tarea, el azar, la accin de
otras personas, etc. Esto est relacionado con el grado de control que percibe sobre los
acontecimientos, si puede cambiarlos o no, y por supuesto, incide sobre la autoimagen en
trminos de auto competencia, y por tanto, influye en la autoestima.

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2. DATOS
Un investigador ha recogido datos sobre tres variables psicolgicas, cuatro variables acadmicas
(montones estandarizados de prueba), y el tipo de programa educativo en el que estn registrados
los 600 estudiantes de un instituto. El inters de nuestro proyecto es saber cmo el juego de
variables psicolgicas es relacionado con las variables acadmicas y el tipo de programa en el que
est el estudiante.
La base de datos fue obtenida de las notas de 600 estudiantes de un instituto de Estados Unidos,
en un punto del tiempo, por lo que podramos decir que la estructura de datos es de corte
transversal .

2.1. METODOLOGIA
La metodologa que usaremos para analizar nuestro estudio de como depende la nota de ciencias
naturales con respecto a 2 variables cuntitativas: las notas en lectura (Read) y Escritura (Write) y
3 variables cualitativas: Motivacin (Motivation), Auto-concepto (Auto concept)

y Locus de

control (Locus of control), se lo har por medio del anlisis de regresin lineal mltiple usandolo a
travs del software estadstico Stata, siendo un programa que permite la gestin de datos, anlisis
estadsticos y simulaciones.
TABLA 1. RESUMEN DE LAS VARIABLES DE NUESTRO MODELO USANDO EL SOFTWARE STATA

El cuadro anterior nos sirve para proporcionarnos informacin bsica de las variables que estamos
analizando, nos resume las caractersticas de las mismas, como por ejemplo el nmero de
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observaciones (Obs) que en este caso son 600 observaciones para cada variable; la media (Mean)
que nos muestra el valor promedio que suele tener cada variable; la desviacin tpica (Std. Dev.) es
un parmetro de dispersin que nos indica si los datos obtenidos tienden a estar mas
concentrados o mas dispersos con respecto a su media, y por ltimo mnimo y mximo (Min y
Max) nos indica el rango de valores obtenidos del muestro.

2.2. VARIABLES
Variables:

PSICOLGICAS:
o Locus de Control (LC)
o Autoconcepto (A)
o Motivacin (M)
ACADMICAS (CALIFICACIONES):
o Lectura (L)
o Escritura (E)
o Ciencia (C)
VARIABLE CATEGRICA
o Tipo de programa en el que el estudiante se encuentra (general, acadmico,
vocacional)

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3. RESULTADOS
Tabla 2: Correlacin

De acuerdo a lo visto en clases, se hizo una suposicin de que los elementos de fuera (covarianzas)
de la diagonal principal de la matriz son iguales a cero, entonces se puede afirmar que los
trminos de error estn incorrelacionados entre s. Sin embargo en la realidad no ocurre aquello
porque s existen correlaciones entre las variables explicativas, es decir, no son linealmente
independientes.
En el tringulo inferior de la Tabla 2 muestra correlaciones bajas y elevadas entre las variables
explicativas. Las variables que tienen mayor grado de correlacin entre s son: write y science, read
y science, read y write. Las variables con correlaciones que tienen un bajo grado de dependencia
son: motivation y science, self_concept y science, self_concept y write, self_concept y read,
locus_of_control y self_concept. Incluyendo las dems variables con grado medio de correlacin,
se concluye que todas violan el segundo inciso del cuarto supuesto clsico de No correlacin serial.
Tabla 3: Regresin mltiple con 5 variables independientes

(1.81)

(0.46)

(0.41)

(0.36)

(0.03)

(0.37)
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Con objeto de estimar un modelo de regresin lineal mltiple sobre cmo depende la nota en la
materia de Ciencias Naturales con respecto a 2 variables cuntitativas que son las notas en
Lectura, en Escritura y 3 variables cualitativas: Motivacin, Auto-concepto y Locus de control. Se
llev a cabo el respectivo anlisis de regresin mltiple usando el software Stata, datos que se
muestran en la Tabla 3. Se puede observar que el p value es menor que el nivel de significancia
(=0.05) por lo tanto se rechaza la hiptesis nula H_0: _k=0, es decir,que las variables s tienen
significancia en el modelo.

Tabla 4: Regresin mltiple con 3 variables independientes

(1.70)

(0.35)

(0.35)

(0.03)

Utilizando el mismo modelo que tena 5 variables independientes se procede a omitir 2 variables
explicativas del anlisis de regresin de acuerdo al criterio de los Intervalos de Confianza. En la
sexta columna de la Tabla 3 se puede observar que al 95% de confianza las variables
locus_of_control y self_concept tienen rangos de valores que incluyen al cero. Esto quiere decir
que sus coeficientes no son significativos. Como se muestra en la Tabla 4, el modelo estimado
tiene 3 variables independientes que son: Motivacin, Lectura y Escritura.

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Tabla 5: Regresin mltiple con 2 variables independientes

(1.65)

(0.35)

(0.36)

Tomando en cuenta la Prueba de hiptesis de significancia de la cuarta columna de la Tabla 4 de la

variable Motivacin, se observa que tiene un estadstico t de -2.06 que es menor que -1.96 para
un nivel de significancia de 5%. Entonces se rechaza la hiptesis nula de que el coeficiente de esta
variable es cero y por lo tanto esta variable es estadsticamente significativa. Pero porque razn
se la omite del modelo?, la razn principal es por la precisin que deseamos que tenga el modelo
disminuyendo k variables que luego se traduce en una minimizacin de la varianza del trmino de
error _u^2, evitando el trade off con un modelo ms sencillo con 2 variables independientes:
Lectura y Escritura que en este caso son cuantitativas.

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4. ANALISIS DE COEFICIENTES Y
SIGNIFICANCIA
En base a la tabla 5 que es el modelo economtrico con el que vamos a trabajar, vamos a proceder
a analizar los coeficientes y lo que significa cada uno, as mismo, realizaremos un anlisis sobre la
significancia de este modelo.
Tabla 6: Regresin mltiple (Significancia)

El modelo ajustado de Regresin Lineal Mltiple es:

(1.65)

(0.35)

(0.36)

4.1 COEFICIENTES
Trmino Constante Bo: Vale 12.65, se puede interpretar como la calificacin que obtendra en
Ciencias para un estudiante que obtuviera un puntaje de cero en Lectura y Escritura, ceteris
paribus.
Trmino para la variable Lectura B1: Vale 0.52, lo que nos indica que por cada punto adicional en
Lectura la variable dependiente Ciencia aumentara en 0.52, ceteris paribus.
Trmino para la variable Escritura B2: Vale 0.22, lo que nos indica que por cada punto adicional
en Escritura la variable dependiente Ciencia aumentara en 0.22, ceteris paribus.

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4.2 SIGNIFICANCIA
Para mostrar la significancia de nuestro modelo emplearemos tres mtodos que son: la prueba de
hiptesis, el criterio del valor T, P y el intervalo de confianza, adicionalmente tambin
analizaremos la Bondad de Ajuste.

4.2.1 Prueba de Hiptesis

Para los siguientes tres casos analizaremos la Prueba de Hiptesis para las betas de nuestro
modelo lo cual nos ayudar a tener una idea previa de que valores pueden tomar las mismas.
Para esto utilizaremos el anlisis de la Z y la T.

Podemos usar la Z puesto que tenemos datos mayores a 30 y varianza poblacional desconocida,
as mismo usamos Z crtico = 1.96
CASO 1: INTERCEPTO
Supongamos que deseamos probar que el intercepto es igual a 10.
Definimos hiptesis:

Ho

Ho

Como podemos observar el valor de 1.6 cae en la zona de no rechazo, por lo tanto se acepta Ho,
es decir se acepta que
.

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CASO 2: VARIABLE INDEPENDIENTE LECTURA

Supongamos que deseamos probar que la variable independiente Lectura es igual a 2.
Definimos hiptesis:

Ho

Como podemos observar el valor de -4.22 cae en la zona de rechazo, por lo tanto se rechaza Ho, es
decir se no se acepta que
, lo cual tiene relacin con el intervalo de confianza que ser
mostrados posteriormente.
CASO 3: VARIABLE INDEPENDIENTE ESCRITURA
Supongamos que deseamos probar que la variable independiente Escritura es igual a 0.2.
Definimos hiptesis:

Ho

Como podemos observar el valor de 0.055 cae en la zona de no rechazo, por lo tanto se acepta Ho,
es decir se acepta que

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Tambin podemos usar el anlisis de la T calculada vs. la T crtica puesto que tenemos varianza
poblacional desconocida, as mismo usamos

Tabla 7

Para cada una de las variables el valor de T es mayor a 1.96 lo que nos quiere decir que cada
variable es significativa para el modelo por lo que rechazo la Hiptesis nula.

4.2.2 Valr P
Tabla 8

Para el anlisis del valor P debo demostrar que P> t es menor a 0.05 puesto que nuestro anlisis lo
realizamos con un nivel de significancia del 0.05. Como podemos observar en la tabla precedente
en cada una de las variables incluyendo el intercepto, el valor de P>t es cero, esto nos quiere decir
que se rechaza la Ho, es decir que beta es diferente de cero:

Y se confirma que cada una de las variables escogidas para nuestro modelo son significativas para
el mismo.
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4.2.3 Interval de cnfianza

Tabla 9

Para la variable Lectura su beta es de 0.52 con un intervalo de confianza al 95% que va desde 0.45
a 0.59, este es el margen de error del intervalo, dado que el mismo no pasa por cero ni su
desviacin es grande podemos asegurar que es una variable muy significativa para el modelo.
En el caso de la variable Escritura su beta es de 0.22 con un intervalo de confianza al 95% que va
desde 0.15 a 0.29, igualmente este no pasa por cero, por lo que concluimos que tambin es una
variable significativa.
Finalmente, la constante tiene un coeficiente de 12.65 con un intervalo de confianza al 95% que va
desde 9.4 a 15.89, sin pasar por cero.

4.2.4 Bndad de ajuste

La bondad de ajuste se mide mediante la observacin del trmino R cuadrado y R cuadrado
ajustado. Para nuestro anlisis el R cuadrado es igual a 0.5072 y su R ajustado es igual a 0.5055;
inicialmente en nuestro modelo de la Tabla 1, el R cuadrado era de 0.51, sin embargo existan dos
variables cuya significancia segn el criterio P estaba en dudas, y a pesar de que el R cuadrado
ajustado disminuy en 0.01 consideramos que el ltimo modelo es mejor pues con menos
variables podemos explicar cmo se desarrolla la variable Ciencia. Por ello podemos concluir que
la calificacin en Ciencias se encuentra explicada en un 50% por las notas en Lectura y Escritura.
Tabla 10

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5. CONCLUSIONES

El R cuadrado y el R cuadrado ajustado nos permiten definir el mejor modelo de regresin,

y nos ayuda a analizar lo que sucede al aumentar una variable adicional, sin embargo
debemos ser cuidadosos con dicho dato, pues existe un trade off, al aumentar una
variable adicional el modelo no ser necesariamente ms significativo que con menos
variables. En nuestro proyecto las variables con mayor significancia fueron Lectura y
Escritura que tanto en el anlisis T, P y en la Bondad de Ajuste mostraron que podan
explicar el modelo.

Mediante el estudio realizado podemos concluir que las notas para la materia de ciencias
naturales va a depender de las notas obtenidas en lectura y escritura. La lectura y la
escritura son dos habilidades indisolublemente ligadas durante el largo y continuo proceso
de aprendizaje del ser humano. Las etapas de consolidacin y desarrollo de las mismas se
prolongan toda la vida.

Mediante estas variables (read, write) podemos explicar cmo se desarrolla la variable
Ciencia, como pudimos observar el aumento en las notas de lectura y escritura va a
ocasionar un aumento en la nota de Ciencias Naturales.

6. RECOMENDACIONES

Es necesario reducir el efecto de los valores perdidos. En el mundo real, no existirn bases
de datos perfectas, pues siempre habrn valores perdidos, y estar el trabajo del
economista, en la evaluacin previa de la base de datos.

Es importante que las personas inicien el aprendizaje de la escritura y desarrollen la

lectura de manera significativa, haciendo uso de ella, lo cual generar la necesidad y
deseo de progresar en su conocimiento, logrando el gusto y el hbito por el uso de las
mismas. De este correcto aprendizaje lograremos un mejor rendimiento en nuestra vida
acadmica.

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7. REFERENCIAS Y BIBLIOGRAFIA

BASE DE DATOS:

Angeles, U. o. (2014). INSTITUTE FOR DIGITAL RESEARCHA AND EDUCATION . Recuperado el 01 de

12 de 2014, de http://www.ats.ucla.edu/stat/stata/dae/mvreg.htm

Afifi, A., Clark, V., & May, S. (2004). Computer-Aided Multivariate Analysis 4th ed. Boca Raton:
Chapman & Hall/CRC.

Rodriguez, M. J., & Mora, R. (2001). Estadstica informtica: casos y ejemplos con el SPSS.
Universitat d' Alacant.

Mayorga, L. L. (29 de Julio de 2012). La Patria. Obtenido de http://www.lapatriaenlinea.com/?t=laimportancia-de-la-lectura-de-ninos-en-edad-escolar&nota=114555

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8. ANEXOS
locus_of_control self_concept motivation
-1.143955
0.5041339
1.628546
0.3680964
-0.2801896
1.066716
-0.0455988
-1.009135
-0.203058
0.6492352
1.225508
-0.7500962
1.004181
0.6139908
0.7058846
-0.6091973
1.14217
-1.233362
1.35117
-0.181009
-0.4613788
0.5345241
0.0954385
0.4908478
0.9949548
1.255287
0.25135
-0.3475738
1.117719
-0.2694051
-0.205331
0.9995198
0.0180642
1.435604
-1.204755
-0.9938917
-0.0412022

0.7226413
0.111364
0.6299338
-0.1385281
-0.4522264
0.6229352
0.2887751
0.4035649
-1.647125
0.6299932
-0.6549536
-0.9947717
0.2489636
-1.751172
-0.5745994
-1.379228
0.6720943
-0.9006096
-0.8156343
-0.6118405
1.346367
-0.5726522
-0.1743966
0.4832311
-0.4327542
0.1109407
0.7308084
-0.6304505
0.0510423
-0.8060372
0.250821
0.4641558
-0.193581
0.7599774
-0.754274
-0.8421358
-0.4244947

0.3689731
0.5203185
0.4368382
-0.004324
1.256924
1.355576
1.758428
0.2776515
0.0088297
0.2072111
-0.3944585
1.341183
0.3076809
-0.1181109
0.4167483
-0.2619791
0.4291491
-0.6769071
-0.5673103
0.6964706
0.569908
0.1323527
-0.0432441
0.0015749
0.2754097
0.135321
1.299474
-1.976017
0.7446436
0.999934
0.0150267
-0.1884738
-0.2845729
0.749835
0.2233189
-0.0375743
-0.6437758

read

write

science

37.40555
52.76078
59.77192
42.85432
54.75628
56.5918
57.26575
43.00175
58.39013
47.46682
57.28268
57.37653
45.12582
47.86945
49.55196
53.71397
51.12276
45.25164
44.99442
55.23143
48.31693
67.73677
50.31593
47.47101
72.61959
57.28802
54.72924
31.09327
63.35926
55.62704
51.08363
54.73914
37.40923
59.27261
40.37087
55.43525
45.20996

39.03284
51.99504
54.65165
41.12136
49.94721
58.27413
56.80764
53.44386
53.61174
47.27131
63.08307
60.1262
42.85443
50.19226
43.078
56.31578
57.03072
39.83403
57.6189
37.19624
53.52367
66.04089
60.41117
38.15947
69.91948
54.22253
56.95903
44.92495
62.89007
63.06123
53.27155
58.81733
44.70093
61.60959
55.31987
65.52064
43.15091

33.53282
65.22504
64.6045
48.49381
50.38166
61.51582
66.11026
57.37268
43.86207
43.83617
57.82922
48.64468
50.47225
51.65434
52.45048
43.69614
52.678
38.13485
55.65072
51.92538
46.62342
64.32419
50.31065
50.21306
70.34943
61.35866
35.76931
39.77386
61.37509
58.34221
43.82074
50.50621
36.71507
55.31223
51.01115
57.32066
55.48028

prog
academic
academic
academic
vocational
academic
academic
academic
academic
academic
vocational
academic
general
academic
general
vocational
academic
vocational
general
general
vocational
academic
vocational
academic
academic
academic
academic
vocational
general
academic
academic
vocational
vocational
vocational
vocational
general
general
academic
18 | P g i n a

-0.2989389
-0.4872831
-0.2893064
-0.2194642
0.0306826
-0.0532957
-0.4763536
0.5876413
-0.6618054
-0.0155668
-0.4421147
-0.725796
-0.8911374
0.3718974
-0.8030427
0.9068714
0.470866
0.5765129
0.9559743
-0.0753679
-1.135284
-1.023859
0.0987734
0.1937875
-0.124947
0.4597613
0.6113311
0.0442501
0.1148875
0.9059151
0.2472723
0.0162443
1.463169
0.362683
-1.57852
-0.4647296
0.033822
0.8464419
0.8139032
-0.0524817
1.357286
-0.1443187

-0.2279731
0.0186233
-0.3172207
-0.9606062
-0.1438212
-0.5232319
-0.4865719
-0.4933564
1.115443
0.9211819
-0.2108629
0.2991224
0.4122413
0.8649138
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53.20843
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49.11414
58.42581
41.98959
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60.97713
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55.96214
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42.4955
54.94786
58.38434
49.52859
48.37138
56.56857
66.13515
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46.88667
65.75773

64.24606
51.49083
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50.06627
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36.0896
52.11255
60.59366
46.21964
45.41044
57.7317
50.19998
69.57344
42.32067
80.36942

vocational
academic
academic
vocational
general
vocational
academic
general
vocational
academic
general
vocational
academic
vocational
general
general
vocational

32 | P g i n a