Taller # 7

Caculo del MTBF

Datos de falla del siguiente Equipo son: 30, 31, 14, 2, 26, 25, 22, 7 en dias.
Calcular
Calcular el MTBF y la rata de falla

Cual es la probabilidad que falle antes de las 200 horas.

Cual es la confiabilidad en 300 horas.

Si el costo de la falla es de Col$ 26670.000 y el costos del mantto preventiv

de $ 1590.000, cual es el tiempo ptimo para hacer el mantenimiento?.

Confiabilidad Distribucion exponencial

MTBF =

1
Rata de falla

Tiempo

1
2
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7
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53
54
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57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68

1.0000
Exponencial
#NAME?
0.14
0.05
0.02
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

69
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96
97
98
99
100

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

Simulacin por Monte Carlo de Confiabilidad Exponencial

A : distribucion exponencial con MTTF=137 dias
landa = 1/137 = 0.0073
Landa=
s
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
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27
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29
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31
32
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34
35
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52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72

Aleatorio

0.951
0.800
0.879
0.301
0.242
0.349
0.351
0.266
0.990
0.962
0.189
0.618
0.008
0.964
0.273
0.780
0.494
0.844
0.880
0.422
0.726
0.783
0.725
0.360
0.458
0.756
0.049
0.636
0.230
0.775
0.187
0.521
0.071
0.504
0.228
0.487
0.186
0.808
0.823
0.339
0.339
0.946
0.899
0.334
0.951
0.649
0.745
0.257
0.650
0.817
0.098
0.033
0.433
0.501
0.231
0.458
0.323
0.444
0.557
0.973
0.086
0.356
0.908
0.302
0.791
0.734
0.246
0.014
0.517
0.735
0.602
0.617

0.0037
Exponencial
13.56
60.29
34.84
324.18
383.11
284.82
282.95
358.41
2.74
10.38
450.22
130.17
1309.37
10.00
351.33
67.17
190.46
45.71
34.42
233.33
86.40
66.09
86.76
276.03
211.05
75.56
814.41
122.44
396.84
68.81
453.14
176.38
716.77
185.16
399.29
194.66
454.51
57.67
52.68
292.29
292.12
15.03
28.87
296.49
13.46
116.81
79.65
366.85
116.51
54.73
628.89
921.57
226.16
187.05
396.00
210.98
305.65
219.24
158.00
7.44
664.06
279.21
26.07
323.59
63.32
83.49
379.12
1157.42
178.27
83.16
137.37
130.61

Aleatorios

X= (-1/landa)*{ln (aleatorio)}
Exponencial

1.000
0.900
0.800
0.700
0.600
0.500
0.400
0.300
0.200
0.100
0.000

0.00

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

600.00

700.00

800.00

900.00

1000.00

s
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Proba

Aleatorio

0.669
0.005
0.454
0.595
0.252
0.370
0.051
0.152
0.189
0.121
0.269
0.736
0.761
0.171
0.060
0.742
0.091
0.340
0.258
0.496
0.841
0.238
0.475
0.430
0.748
0.753
0.149
0.228
0.0980634715
0.792598777
0.6809206114

Exponencial
108.78
1412.09
213.70
140.14
372.19
268.84
804.90
508.54
450.06
571.74
355.34
83.00
73.68
477.20
758.48
80.74
647.09
291.53
366.20
189.32
46.96
387.46
201.31
228.04
78.30
76.49
513.67
399.48

Exponencial

1.000
0.900
0.800
0.700
0.600
0.500
0.400
0.300
0.200
0.100
0.000

0.00

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

600.00

700.00

800.00

900.00

1000.00

al
Aleatorios

nencial

00

Exponencial

700.00

800.00

900.00

1000.00

1100.00

1200.00

1300.00

1400.00

1500.00

nencial

00

Exponencial

700.00

800.00

900.00

1000.00

1100.00

1200.00

1300.00

1400.00

1500.00

Figure 6: Weibull Reliability Calculator

Calculo de la Confiabilidad Distribucion exponencial
CALCULO DE CONFIABILIDAD

TIEMPO

MTBF (dias)=

365.00

Rata de falla =

0.002740

Tiempo
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1,000
Reliability
0.01
0.1
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.99

Probabilidad falla
1.0000
.9864
.9730
.9597
.9467
.9338
.9211
.9086
.8962
.0646
Dias
1,681
840
253
186
130
81
38
4

0.999

Reliability
.0000
.0136
.0270
.0403
.0533
.0662
.0789
.0914
.1038
.9354
FFI
722.70
657.00
365.00
292.00
219.00
146.00
73.00
7.30

CALCULOS DE CONFIABILIDAD - METODO DE DISTRIBUCION EXPONENCIAL

R=1 - EXP^(-t/MTBF)

0.73

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280
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360
400
440
480
520
560
600
640
680
720
760
800
840
880
920
960
1,000
1,040

Figure 6: Weibull Reliability Calculator

CALCULOS DE MANTENIBILIDAD, FAILURE-FINDING TASK
FFI=2*(1-R)*MTBF

1,080
1,120
1,160
1,200
1,240
1,280

CONFIABILIDAD DESEADA

98%

TIEMPO PARA ENCONTRAR FALLA RONDA OPERATIVA

14.6

TIEMPO PARA MANTENIMIENTO PREDICTIVO R=80%

81

TIEMPO PARA MANTENIMIENTO PREVENTIVO R=50%

253

Figure 6: Weibull Reliability Calculator

ponencial
RELIABILITY

PROBABILIDA DE FALLA
Confiabilidad

1.0000

.0000

.8962
.8032
.7198
.6451
.5781
.5181
.4643
.4161
.3730
.3342
.2995
.2685
.2406
.2156
.1932
.1732
.1552
.1391
.1247
.1117
.1001

.1038
.1968
.2802
.3549
.4219
.4819
.5357
.5839
.6270
.6658
.7005
.7315
.7594
.7844
.8068
.8268
.8448
.8609
.8753
.8883
.8999

.0897
.0804

.9103
.9196

.0721
.0646
.0579

.9279
.9354
.9421

1.0000
.9000

Reliability

.8000
.7000
.6000
.5000
.4000
.3000
.2000
.1000
.0000
0

40

80

120 160 200 240 280 320 360 400 440 480 520 560 600 640 680 720 760 800
Horas

.1000
.0000

Figure 6: Weibull Reliability Calculator

0

.0519
.0465
.0417
.0373
.0335
.0300

.9481
.9535
.9583
.9627
.9665
.9700

40

80

120 160 200 240 280 320 360 400 440 480 520 560 600 640 680 720 760 800
Horas

Figure 6: Weibull Reliability Calculator

Confiabilidad

20 560 600 640 680 720 760 800 840 880 920 960 1,00 1,04 1,08 1,12 1,16 1,20 1,24 1,28
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Horas

Figure 6: Weibull Reliability Calculator

20 560 600 640 680 720 760 800 840 880 920 960 1,00 1,04 1,08 1,12 1,16 1,20 1,24 1,28
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Horas