Ejercicio 1 - Suavizamiento exponencial

t Yt At At' at bt Yt'
Enero 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 0.0
Febrero 35.0 31.5 30.4 32.5 0.4 30
Marzo 28.0 30.4 30.4 30.5 0.0 33
Abril 20.0 27.4 29.5 25.2 -0.9 30
Mayo 25.0 26.7 28.7 24.7 -0.8 24
Junio 30.0 27.7 28.4 26.9 -0.3 24
Julio 35.0 29.8 28.8 30.8 0.4 27
Agosto 40.0 32.8 30.0 35.6 1.2 31
Septiembre 50.0 37.8 32.3 43.4 2.3 37
Octubre 55.0 42.8 35.4 50.3 3.1 46
Noviembre 35.0 40.5 36.9 44.2 1.5 53
Diciembre 40.0 40.4 37.9 42.9 1.0 46
Enero Pronóstico p=1 44
Febrero Pronóstico p=2 45
Marzo Pronóstico p=3 46
DAM

Ejercicio 2 - Suavizamiento exponencial

t Yt At At' at bt Yt'
1 10 10 10 10 0
2 18 10.0 10 10 0 10
3 29 10.0 10.0 10.00 0.00 10
4 15 10.0 10.0 10.00 0.00 10
5 30 10.0 10.0 10.00 0.00 10
6 12 10.0 10.0 10.00 0.00 10
7 16 10.0 10.0 10.00 0.00 10
8 8 10.0 10.0 10.00 0.00 10
9 22 10.0 10.0 10.00 0.00 10
10 14 10.0 10.0 10.00 0.00 10
11 15 10.0 10.0 10.00 0.00 10
12 27 10.0 10.0 10.00 0.00 10
13 30 10.0 10.0 10.00 0.00 10
14 23 10.0 10.0 10.00 0.00 10
15 15 10.0 10.0 10.00 0.00 10
16 Pronóstico 10.0
DAM
vizamiento exponencial Doble

[et] EMC DEE DAM PEMA

5 25 0.546 5.00 14%

5 24 0.665 4.92 18%
10 110 22.404 10.47 52%
1 0 25.953 0.64 3%
6 38 0.174 6.16 21%
8 70 7.029 8.39 24%
9 77 9.321 8.79 22%
13 175 56.291 13.24 26%
9 87 12.955 9.34 17%
18 339 160.679 18.41 53%
6 33 0 5.74 14%
89 2.76 8.28 24%

8.28

vizamiento exponencial Doble

[et] EMC DEE DAM PEMA

10.0 100.00 0.0 10 55.56%

10.0 100.00 0.0 10.00 34.48%
10.0 100.00 0.0 10.00 66.67%
10.0 100.00 0.0 10.00 33.33%
10.0 100.00 0.0 10.00 83.33%
10.0 100.00 0.0 10.00 62.50%
10.0 100.00 0.0 10.00 125.00%
10.0 100.00 0.0 10.00 45.45%
10.0 100.00 0.0 10.00 71.43%
10.0 100.00 0.0 10.00 66.67%
10.0 100.00 0.0 10.00 37.04%
10.0 100.00 0.0 10.00 33.33%
10.0 100.00 0.0 10.00 43.48%
10.0 100.00 0.0 10.00 66.67%
100.00 0.0 10.00 59%
10.00
p α
1 0.29234577
2
3

p α
1 0