1 ∑ Y = a ∑ X 2+ b ∑ X + n c X Y

23.00 32.00
2 ∑ X Y = a ∑ X 3+ b ∑ X 2+ C ∑ X 36.00 48.00
48.00 57.00
3 ∑ X 2Y = a ∑ X 4+ b ∑ X 3+ C ∑ X 2 56.00 70.00
70.00 86.00
38.00 46.00
30.00 40.00
26.00 36.00
20.00 32.00
10.00 26.00
357.00 473.00
 X Y
23.00 32.00
36.00 48.00
48.00 57.00
56.00 70.00
70.00 86.00
38.00 46.00
30.00 40.00
26.00 36.00
20.00 32.00
10.00 26.00
357.00 473.00
Y PROMEDIO 47.30

VALORES ENCONTRADOS
a =
b =
c =

COSTOS VRS PRODUCCIÓN

100.0000
90.0000
f(x) = 0.00721736544644972 x² + 0.452643191204791 x + 19.82
(MILES DE MILLONES)

80.0000
R² = 0.993520703678186
70.0000
60.0000
50.0000
40.0000
 100.0000
90.0000
f(x) = 0.00721736544644972 x² + 0.452643191204791 x + 19.82

PRODUCCIÓN (MILES DE MILLONES)

80.0000
R² = 0.993520703678186
70.0000
60.0000
50.0000
40.0000
30.0000
20.0000
10.0000
-
- 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 7
COSTOS (MILES DE MILLONES)
X2 X3 X4 XY X2Y 1 473.00
529.00 12,167.00 279,841.00 736.00 16,928.00
1,296.00 46,656.00 1,679,616.00 1,728.00 62,208.00 2 19,924.00
2,304.00 110,592.00 5,308,416.00 2,736.00 131,328.00
3,136.00 175,616.00 9,834,496.00 3,920.00 219,520.00 3 993,544.00
4,900.00 343,000.00 24,010,000.00 6,020.00 421,400.00
1,444.00 54,872.00 2,085,136.00 1,748.00 66,424.00 ECUACIÓN 1 Y 2 ELIMINAMOS C
900.00 27,000.00 810,000.00 1,200.00 36,000.00 ( 473.00
676.00 17,576.00 456,976.00 936.00 24,336.00
400.00 8,000.00 160,000.00 640.00 12,800.00 1 16,886.10
100.00 1,000.00 10,000.00 260.00 2,600.00 2 - 19,924.00
15,685.00 796,479.00 44,634,481.00 19,924.00 993,544.00 4 - 3,037.90

ECUACIÓN 1 Y 3 ELIMINA
( 473.00

1 741,900.50
3 - 993,544.00
5 - 251,643.50

ECUACIÓN 4 Y 5 SISTEMA DE DOS VARIA

ELIMINAMOS b REPETIMOS LO REALIZAD

4 - 3,037.90
5 - 251,643.50

( - 3,037.90

- 244,392.29
251,643.50
7,251.21

ECUACIÓN 4 Y 5 SISTEMA DE DOS VARIA

VAMOS A DESPEJAR b
4 - 3,037.90
- 3,037.90
b

PARA AYAR C REEMPLAZAMOS a Y b EN

 473.00
473.00
473.00
C

FINALMENTE REEMPLAZAMOS LOS VALO

Y

ENTONCES YA PODEMOS HACER PRONO

HALLAR EL VALOR DE LA PRODUCCIÓN S
PARA ELLO BASTA CON REEMPLAZAR EL
Y
Y
Y
Y

1 2
X2 X3 X4 XY X2Y Y' = ax2 + bx + c (Y' - Y PROMEDIO)2
529.00 12,167.00 279,841.00 736.00 16,928.00 34.0490 175.5895
1,296.00 46,656.00 1,679,616.00 1,728.00 62,208.00 45.4691 3.3523
2,304.00 110,592.00 5,308,416.00 2,736.00 131,328.00 58.1759 118.2848
3,136.00 175,616.00 9,834,496.00 3,920.00 219,520.00 67.8019 420.3270
4,900.00 343,000.00 24,010,000.00 6,020.00 421,400.00 86.8703 1565.8098
1,444.00 54,872.00 2,085,136.00 1,748.00 66,424.00 47.4425 0.0203
900.00 27,000.00 810,000.00 1,200.00 36,000.00 39.8951 54.8322
676.00 17,576.00 456,976.00 936.00 24,336.00 36.4679 117.3352
400.00 8,000.00 160,000.00 640.00 12,800.00 31.7600 241.4913
100.00 1,000.00 10,000.00 260.00 2,600.00 25.0684 494.2454
15,685.00 796,479.00 44,634,481.00 19,924.00 993,544.00 473.0000 3191.2879

ONTRADOS COEFICIENTE DE DETERMINACIÓN PARABO

0.0072 1 Y' = ax2 + bx + c
0.4526
19.8202

2
RODUCCIÓN
34.0490 - 47.30 )
2
(

x² + 0.452643191204791 x + 19.8202003712326 3
x² + 0.452643191204791 x + 19.8202003712326

( 32.00 - 47.30 )2

40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00

MILES DE MILLONES)
 = 15,685.00 * a + 357.00 * b

= 796,479.00 * a + 15,685.00 * b

= 44,634,481.00 * a + 796,479.00 * b

2 ELIMINAMOS C 357.00 / 10
= 15,685.00 * a + 357.00 * b

= 559,954.50 * a + 12,744.90 * b
= - 796,479.00 * a + - 15,685.00 * b
= - 236,524.50 * a + - 2,940.10 * b

ECUACIÓN 1 Y 3 ELIMINAMOS C 15,685.00 / 10.00

= 15,685.00 * a + 357.00 * b

= 24,601,922.50 * a + 559,954.50 * b
= - 44,634,481.00 * a + - 796,479.00 * b
= - 20,032,558.50 * a + - 236,524.50 * b

5 SISTEMA DE DOS VARIABLES

REPETIMOS LO REALIZADO ANTERIORMENTE CON LAS ECUACIONES 4 Y 5

= - 236,524.50 * a + - 2,940.10 * b
= - 20,032,558.50 * a + - 236,524.50 * b

- 236,524.50 / - 2,940.10 = 80.45

= - 236,524.50 * a + - 2,940.10 * b

= - 19,027,869.49 * a + - 236,524.50 * b
= 20,032,558.50 * a + 236,524.50 * b
= 1,004,689.01 * a + -

= 7,251.21 / 1,004,689.01 = 0.0072

5 SISTEMA DE DOS VARIABLES

= - 236,524.50 * 0.0072 + - 2,940.10 * b

= - 1,707.0838 - 2,940.10 * b
= 3,037.90 - 1,707.08
2,940.10
= 1,330.82 / 2,940.10 = 0.4526

EEMPLAZAMOS a Y b EN LA ECUACIÓN 1
 = 15,685.00 * a + 357.00 * b
= 15,685.00 * 0.0072 + 357.00 * 0.4526
= 113.20 + 161.59 + 10.00 * C
= 473.00 - 274.80 = 198.20 / 10.00
10.00

EEMPLAZAMOS LOS VALORES DE a, b Y c EN LA ECUACIÓN PARABÓLICA

= a X 2
+ b X +

ODEMOS HACER PRONOSTICOS

OR DE LA PRODUCCIÓN SI LOS COSTOS SON 20
TA CON REEMPLAZAR EL VALOR DE 20 EN LA ECUACIÓN DE REGRESIÓN PARABÓLICA HALLADA
= 0.0072 X 2
+ 0.4526 X +
= 0.0072 * 20 2
+ 0.4526 * 20
= 0.0072 * 400 + 9.0529
= 2.89 + 9.0529 + 19.82 = 31.7600

2 3
(Y' - Y PROMEDIO)2 (Y - Y PROMEDIO)2
175.5895 234.0900
3.3523 0.4900
118.2848 94.0900
420.3270 515.2900
1565.8098 1,497.6900
0.0203 1.6900
54.8322 53.2900
117.3352 127.6900
241.4913 234.0900
494.2454 453.6900
3191.2879 3,212.1000

ETERMINACIÓN PARABOLICA

34.0490

175.5895
 234.0900

3191.2879 = 0.9935
3,212.1000
+ 10.00 * C

+ 357.00 * C

+ 15,685.00 * C

= 35.70
+ 10.00 * C ) * ( 35.70 )

+ 357.00 * C
+ - 357.00 * C
+ -

= 1,568.50
+ 10.00 * C ) * ( 1,568.50 )

+ 15,685.00 * C
+ - 15,685.00 * C
+ -

) * ( 80.45 )

VALOR DE a

VALOR DE b
 + 10.00 * C ###
+ 10.00 * C

= 19.8202 VALOR DE C

19.8202
+ 19.8202
+ 19.8202
MILLONES DE Q. EN PRODUCCIÓN