Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
Censo
(ao)
1,972
1,981
1,993
2,007
179,664
310,426
380,384
579,561
13559
19132
22437
24452
Censo 1
1,972
1,972
1,972
1,981
1,981
1,993
Censo 2
1,981
1,993
2,007
1,993
2,007
2,007
Tasa (%/ao)
8.09
5.32
6.36
1.88
3.33
3.74
Censo 1
1,972
1,972
1,972
1,981
Censo 2
1,981
1,981
1,993
1,993
Censo 3
1,993
2,007
2,007
2,007
Tasa (%/ao)
4.54
4.56
4.69
2.88
Censo 1
1,972
Censo 2
1,981
Censo 3
1,993
Censo 4
2,007
Tasa (%/ao)
4.22
Censo 1
1,972
Censo 2
1,981
Censo 3
1,993
Censo 4
2,007
Tasa (%/ao)
1.96
Curva
Censo
Pf1
Pf2
Pf3
Pf4
Pf5
Pf6
Pf7
Pf8
Pf9
Pf10
Pf11
Pf12
Curva seleccionada
Poblacin de ao base
Tasa de crecimiento
Pf =
Po =
r =
Diferencias
0
2,646,894
1,444,230
1,896,053
51,892
581,226
757,524
1,104,729
1,112,398
1,169,548
383,947
965,847
17,623
Pf12
579,561 habitantes
1.96 %/ao
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1971
-100
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
-200
-300
Aos
Censo
Pf12
Pf4
Pf10
Pf5
Pf6
Censo
(ao)
Poblacin
(habitantes)
1,972
1,981
1,993
2,007
179,664
310,426
380,384
579,561
Censo 1
1,972
1,972
1,972
1,981
1,981
1,993
Censo 2
1,981
1,993
2,007
1,993
2,007
2,007
Tasa (%)
6.26
3.64
3.40
1.71
2.43
3.05
Censo 1
1,972
1,972
1,972
1,981
Censo 2
1,981
1,981
1,993
1,993
Censo 3
1,993
2,007
2,007
2,007
Tasa (%)
2.98
3.10
3.39
2.34
Censo 3
1,993
Censo 4
2,007
Censo 1
1,972
Censo 2
1,981
Tasa (%)
3.01
Censo 1
1,972
Censo 2
1,981
Censo 3
1,993
Censo 4
2,007
Tasa (%)
3.06
Curva
Censo
Pf1
Pf2
Pf3
Pf4
Pf5
Pf6
Pf7
Pf8
Pf9
Pf10
Pf11
Pf12
Curva seleccionada
Poblacin de ao base
Tasa de crecimiento
Pf =
Po =
r =
Diferencias
0
434,425
123,984
85,227
280,253
104,140
22,694
9,022
31,415
83,190
125,382
14,482
23,117
Pf7
579,561 habitantes
2.98 %
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Aos
Censo
Pf7
Pf11
Pf6
Pf12
Pf8
:
:
:
:
:
Censo
(ao)
Poblacin
(habitantes)
1,972
1,981
1,993
2,007
179,664
310,426
380,384
579,561
1972
Ao
1972
1981
1993
t
-35
-26
-14
A +
A +
A +
1981
t2
1225
676
196
(-35) x B +
(-26) x B +
(-14) x B +
1993
Pf
179664
310426
380384
1225 C
676 C
196 C
A =
B =
C =
311214.19
-10740.22
-414.25
A =
B =
C =
579561.00
7247.86
-119.36
1972
Ao
1972
1981
2007
t
-35
-26
0
A +
A +
A +
(-35) x B +
(-26) x B +
(0) x B +
1981
t2
1225
676
0
2007
Pf
179664
310426
579561
1225 C
676 C
0C
1972
Ao
1972
1993
2007
t
-35
-14
0
A +
A +
A +
1993
t2
1225
196
0
(-35) x B +
(-14) x B +
(0) x B +
2007
Pf
179664
380384
579561
1225 C
196 C
0C
A =
B =
C =
579561.00
16094.46
133.40
A =
B =
C =
579561.00
18748.44
322.97
1981
Ao
1981
1993
2007
1993
t
-26
-14
0
A +
A +
A +
(-26) x B +
(-14) x B +
(0) x B +
t2
676
196
0
2007
Pf
310426
380384
579561
676 C
196 C
0C
Censo 1
1,972
Censo 2
1,981
Censo 3
1,993
Censo 4
2,007
t
-35
-26
-14
0
-75
t2
1225
676
196
0
2097
t3
-42875
-17576
-2744
0
-63195
t4
1500625
456976
38416
0
1996017
Constante
A =
B =
C =
Valor
579,561.0
13,268.18
63.945
Pf
179664
310426
380384
579561
0
Pf.t
-6288240
-8071076
-5325376
0
-19684692
Pf.t2
220088400
209847976
74555264
0
504491640
Curva
Censo
Pf1
Pf2
Pf3
Pf4
Pf5
Curva seleccionada
Constante de poblacin (A)
Constante de poblacin (B)
Constante de poblacin (C)
Pf
A
B
C
=
=
=
=
Diferencias
0
805,041
74,311
-59,146
139,334
7,188
Pf5
579,561.0 habitantes
13,268.18 habitantes/ao
2
63.945 habitantes/ao
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
Aos
Censo
Pf1
Pf2
Pf3
Pf4
Pf5
Pf = Po ( 1 + r t )
Po =
r =
t = 0, en
579,561 habitantes
1.96 %/ao
2,007
Po =
r =
t = 0, en
579,561 habitantes
2.98 %
2,007
A =
B =
C =
t = 0, en
579,561.0 hab.
13,268.18 hab./ao
2
63.945 hab./ao
2,007
Po =
t = 0, en
r =
579,561 habitantes
2,007
3.05 %
Aritmtica
Geomtrica
Parablica
579,561
636,267
692,972
749,678
806,384
863,090
919,795
976,501
579,561
671,255
777,457
900,461
1,042,926
1,207,931
1,399,043
1,620,390
579,561
647,500
718,637
792,971
870,502
951,231
1,035,156
1,122,279
Tasa
Referencial
579,561
673,502
782,671
909,534
1,056,961
1,228,285
1,427,378
1,658,743
400
200
0
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Aos
Aritmtico
Geomtrico
Parablico
Tasa Referencial
NOTA:
* La curva seleccionada para el presente Proyecto es la Geometrica.
* Para el presente proyecto se ha tomado en cuenta la tasa de crecimiento de r 2.98%
= 2.98 %
para los sectores N 251, 252 y parte del Sector N 254.