Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA
DEPARTAMENTO DE INGENIERÍA DE
SISTEMAS
TRABAJO DE HABILITACIÓN
PARA EL CONCURSO DE PROMOCIÓN DOCENTE
TRUJILLO – PERÚ
2022
DEDICATORIA
Juan Pedro
ii
AGRADECIMIENTOS
El autor
iii
PRESENTACIÓN
iv
INDICE GENERAL
Tabla de contenido
DEDICATORIA ..................................................................................................................................ii
AGRADECIMIENTOS........................................................................................................................ iii
PRESENTACIÓN............................................................................................................................... iv
INDICE GENERAL.............................................................................................................................. v
ÍNDICE DE FIGURAS ....................................................................................................................... vii
ÍNDICE DE TABLAS ........................................................................................................................ viii
RESUMEN ....................................................................................................................................... ix
ABSTRACT ........................................................................................................................................ x
I. INTRODUCCION ...................................................................................................................... 1
1.1 Realidad problemática ................................................................................................... 1
1.2 Antecedentes ................................................................................................................. 1
1.3 Marco teórico ................................................................................................................. 2
1.4 Formulación del problema ............................................................................................. 5
1.5 Hipótesis ......................................................................................................................... 6
1.5.1 Hipótesis general ........................................................................................................ 6
1.5.2 Hipótesis específicas .................................................................................................. 6
1.6 Objetivos ........................................................................................................................ 7
1.6.1 Objetivo general ......................................................................................................... 7
1.6.2 Objetivos específicos .................................................................................................. 7
1.7 Justificación y relevancia ................................................................................................ 7
1.8 Limitaciones.................................................................................................................... 7
1.8.1 Limitación espacial ..................................................................................................... 7
1.8.2 Limitación temporal ................................................................................................... 8
II. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS .......................................................................................................... 9
2.1 Material .......................................................................................................................... 9
2.1.1 Población .................................................................................................................... 9
2.1.2 Muestra ...................................................................................................................... 9
2.1.3 Muestreo ........................................................................................................................... 9
2.2 Métodos ......................................................................................................................... 9
2.2.1 Tipo de Estudio ........................................................................................................... 9
2.2.2 Diseño de Investigación............................................................................................ 10
v
2.2.3 Variables y su operativización .................................................................................. 10
2.2.4 Técnicas e instrumentos para la recolección de datos ............................................ 11
III. RESULTADOS Y DISCUSIÓN............................................................................................... 13
3.1 Resultados .................................................................................................................... 13
3.1.1 Modelo aritmético.................................................................................................... 15
3.1.2 Modelo geométrico .................................................................................................. 17
3.1.3 Modelo exponencial ................................................................................................. 20
3.2 Contrastación de la hipótesis ....................................................................................... 33
3.2.1 Contrastación del modelo aritmético...................................................................... 34
3.2.2 Contrastación del modelo geométrico .................................................................... 35
3.2.3 Contrastación del modelo exponencial ................................................................... 36
3.3 Discusión ...................................................................................................................... 38
IV. CONCLUSIONES Y RECOMENDACIONES ........................................................................... 40
VI. REFERENCIAS BIBLIOGRÁFICAS ........................................................................................ 42
ANEXOS ........................................................................................................................................ 44
Anexo A: Matriz consistencia ....................................................................................................... 44
Anexo B: Matriz metodológica ..................................................................................................... 45
Anexo C: Modelos de proyección de la población del Perú en Excel........................................... 46
Anexo D: Código del programa en C++ de proyección de la población del Perú ......................... 48
Anexo E: Corrida del programa en C++ de proyección de la población del Perú......................... 55
Anexo F: Generación de reporte en pdf del aplicativo web en PHP para la proyección de la
población del Perú ....................................................................................................................... 57
Anexo G: GUIA DE APRENDIZAJE........................................................................................... 62
vi
ÍNDICE DE FIGURAS
vii
ÍNDICE DE TABLAS
viii
RESUMEN
ix
ABSTRACT
The objective of this research work was to determine the most accurate
mathematical model based on census data for the population estimate of Peru
through a computational application.
The population was constituted by the census data of the Peruvian population,
resulting from the national censuses during the period 181 years, from 1836 to 2017,
from the databases of the National Institute of Statistics and Informatics of Peru
(INEI). The population data obtained from the national censuses between the years
1940 and 2017 were taken as a sample due to the reliability of the data. Non-
probabilistic convenience sampling was used. Likewise, the direct deductive method
was used, obtaining an immediate conclusion from the premises. The research
design was non-experimental, longitudinal trend. Direct observation was used as a
technique and a summary sheet as an instrument.
For the processing of the data, the Excel electronic sheet was used, the
computational application was developed in the C++ language that estimates the
population projection for a selected period of time, automatically selecting the best
model that presents the lowest mean square error (MSE), implementing later in a
web application developed in the PHP language with the NodeJs framework.
Likewise, the statistical software R was used under the integrated development
environment RStudio for the statistical processing of the data.
To test the hypotheses, Chi-Square goodness-of-fit statistical tests were used with
a 5% margin of error, verifying that the data estimated by the three models fit the
observed census data, concluding with the acceptance of the validity of the studied
models.