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WAFXXX10.1177/0043820019884940World AffairsAnthony R. Brunello
The measure of
machiavelli?
Fear, Love, Hatred, and Trump
Anthony R. Brunello
Eckerd College
The rise of populist leaders like Trump certainly raises issues of leadership and ef-
fectiveness. The current populist moment may be one of “Cultural Backlash,” but
there is also merit in resurrecting and assessing the work of Niccolò Machiavelli in
evaluating Trump’s leadership and success. Would Machiavelli, with his emphasis
on a “success ethic” and a studied moral indifference, rate Trump to be a “great
prince?” This article analyzes Machiavelli’s role and contemporary relevance as
well as what he might say about a leader like Donald Trump. Machiavelli offers
one insight into a style of leader that exposes the dangers of ignorance allied with
self-interest in a nationalist pose. Also, we can visualize (with Machiavelli’s help)
a modern reconsideration of the dimensions of love, hate, and fear in 21st century
leadership—especially among national populist leaders. This matters politically to
us all.
La medida de maquiavelo:
Temor, Amor, Odio Y Trump
El ascenso de líderes populistas como Trump ciertamente pone en evidencia asuntos
de liderazgo y efectividad. El actual momento populista podría se una “reacción
cultural,” pero también hay mérito en resucitar y evaluar del trabajo de Nicolás
Maquiavelo para entender el liderazgo y éxito de Trump. ¿Podría Maquiavelo, con
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Anthony R. Br unello
su énfasis en “la ética del éxito” y una estudiosa tasa de la indiferencia moral habil-
itar a Trump para convertirse en “un gran príncipe”? Este artículo analiza tanto
el papel y la relevancia contemporánea de Maquiavelo, así como lo que podría este
haber dicho sobre un líder como Donald Trump. Maquiavelo ofrece una perspectiva
sobre un estilo de liderazgo que expone los peligros de la alianza del autointerés con
una posición nacionalista. También podemos visualizar (con la ayuda de Maquia-
velo) una reconsideración moderna de las dimensiones del amor, odio y temor en el
liderazgo del siglo 21—especialmente entre líderes nacionales populistas. Esto nos
concierne a todos políticamente.
马基雅维利的”衡量”?恐惧、爱、仇恨与特朗普
诸如特朗普总统这样的民粹主义领袖的崛起,一定会引起与领导力和效
果有关的问题 。 当前的民粹主义时刻可能是一次” 文化反弹” , 尽管如
此 , 在评价特朗普总统的领导力和成功之举时, 重新使用尼科洛·马基
雅维利(Niccolò Machiavelli)的著作并予以评估,仍然是有价值的。基
于马基雅维利所强调的”成功道德”、和其研究过的道德冷漠,他会把特
朗普总统归类为一个”强大的君主”吗?本文分析了马基雅维利的影响、
其与当代的相关性 、 以及他对像唐纳德·特朗普总统这样的领袖可能会
作出的评价。马基雅维利提供了一种见解,即领袖将无知的危险暴露出
来,而这种无知又与民族主义式的自身利益相辅相成。我们还在马基雅
维利的启发下,对二十一世纪领导力(尤其源于国家民粹主义领袖)中
的爱、仇恨、恐惧等方面进行了重新衡量。这在政治上对所有人都具有
重要性。
关键词: 特朗普总统,政治理论,马基雅维利,领导力,民粹主义,
总统的成功之举,狮子与狐狸,政治中的畏与爱,《君主论》
,民族主义,
美国,美利坚共和国.
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The measure of machiavelli?
and continues searching even now for that “more perfect Union” Abra-
ham Lincoln alluded to in 1861 in his First Inaugural Address. In the 21st
century, America finds itself governed by a demagogic, populist, and
nationalist leader. In 2016, President Donald J. Trump defied conven-
tional wisdom and the odds to become the 45th U.S. president. A self-
proclaimed billionaire born to privilege, Trump represents a populist
version of the “common people” in America—predominantly white,
working, and middle class, and tonally nationalist, male, and angry. Pick-
ing up the trail originally opened by the Tea Party Movement, Trump’s
angry brand mixes race, religion, prejudice, and nativism in a potent
political brew (Brunello 2014). President Trump (2017) said the follow-
ing in his Inaugural Address in January 2017:
But for too many of our citizens a different reality exists. Mothers and
children trapped in poverty in our inner cities, rusted out factories
scattered like tombstones across the landscape of our nation, an educa-
tion system flush with cash but which leaves our young and beautiful
students deprived of all knowledge. And the crime, and the gangs, and
the drugs that have stolen too many lives and robbed our country of
so much unrealized potential. This American carnage stops right here
and stops right now.
Trump captured the energy of these fears. With the help of new social
media and the rules of the Constitution, Trump gained a narrow victory
in 2016, winning the Electoral College while losing the national popular
vote (Singer and Brooking 2018). Cultural anxiety, shaped by Trump
into messages of anger and victimization (aimed at Hochschild’s “line
cutters”), spawned the passions behind Trump’s success.
326 WO R L D A F FA I R S
Anthony R. Br unello
How would the Italian philosopher Niccolò Machiavelli view the rise
of Trump and his performance in government? Can the philosopher of
political prowess from the Italian Renaissance objectively measure politi-
cal effectiveness today? Like the Framers of the American Republic,
Machiavelli (1469–1527) also straddled two great historical transitions:
the medieval era and the Renaissance. As a voice of the Renaissance, he
was troubled by the inability of Europeans to escape the Middle Ages
and its worldviews (Berlin 1992). The difference between Machiavelli’s
two great political works, The Discourses and The Prince, centered on the
philosopher’s understanding of republics. In The Prince, Machiavelli
evaluated the options a leader might have in being successful over a pre-
viously “self-governing” political culture. In The Discourses, Machiavelli
studied the character of republics as a form of government. Ultimately,
he was consistent despite the clear differences between the two works.
Republics are resilient and difficult to conquer because the people, in
Machiavelli’s view, identify themselves with the nation and state. When
people are allowed to influence the making of their laws and to choose
their leaders (i.e., self-governance), then citizens generate an identity as
authentic stakeholders. As people see themselves reflected in the nation
and state, they view their fates tied to the life of the republic. Republics
have the virtue of “ruling in the name of the people” and not the mon-
arch or feudal caste:
In republics, the state becomes the face of the people. In our times,
even modern dictatorships claim to rule in the name of the people. In fact,
Machiavelli (1950, 266) argued that the common people are more con-
cerned with the public good over the long term. Princes are consumed
too often by short-term and “individual interests”:
The follies which a people commit at the moment of its greatest license
are not what is most to be feared; it is not the immediate evil that may
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The measure of machiavelli?
result from them that inspires apprehension, but the fact that such
general confusion might afford the opportunity for a tyrant to seize the
government. (Machiavelli 1950, 265)
How would Machiavelli evaluate today the rise, the rule, and the
future of the Trump presidency, and how would he assess the vitality and
resilience of American values? Can Machiavelli measure the singular fea-
tures of the billionaire populist who is the first Twitter President? Trump
has learned to utilize direct contact with the popular masses through
modern social media. Social media beyond Twitter is a critical tool in the
hands of Trump and his allies (both foreign and domestic) making the
Trump brand of populism viral.
The first part of the following analysis begins with Machiavelli’s The
Prince, followed by a reevaluation of his definition of power and leader-
ship. I close by describing the interplay of hatred, fear, and love in the
politics of social media in the 21st century. Will the measure of Machia-
velli be a guide to our assessment of the American Republic in the time
of Trump?
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The measure of machiavelli?
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The measure of machiavelli?
Machiavellian Principles
Several general principles that provide standards for measurement
are bluntly revealed in The Prince (Brunello 1994):
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Anthony R. Br unello
Machiavelli (1992) believed that civic virtues and moral standards derive
from the law and he had faith in the leadership of a political leader who
applies the arts of politics accordingly (chap. 5, 14). If a stable republic
exists, then the rule of law will naturally guide a society toward common
decency and justice with representative government and citizen support.
The state and law hold people together best, and moral obligations are
ultimately derived from the laws. Therein may lie a cautionary tale for
21st century democracy.
Machiavelli (1992) only inferred his higher regard for republics in
The Prince, but his criticism of aristocratic classes was based on his experi-
ence that nobles get between the people and the state, and operate out
of selfish and parochial interests (chaps. 9–11, 27–33). Nobles pursue
lands and titles without regard for the larger polity. A state that relies on
noble classes will be weak. A strong state relies on the common people
as citizens and strives to forge a direct relationship between the people
and government. A similar logic emerges in the arguments in The Prince
against the employ of mercenaries. Chapters 12 and 13 address these
issues specifically, closing with the famous reflection on Cesare Borgia’s
reputation (Machiavelli 1992, chap. 13, 37–40). Machiavelli insisted that
mercenary armies cannot be trusted. Mercenaries fight for money and
rewards and will retreat at the slightest hint of real danger. Mercenaries
are not loyal to anyone but themselves, and Machiavelli (1992) favored a
citizen army of people willing to die for their country (chap. 12, 33–37).
Republican armies of citizens who make their own laws are more dura-
ble and commodious.
In the conclusion, there is an exhortation to Lorenzo di Medici to
be a great prince and unite all of Italy to be one country (Machiavelli
1992, chap. 26, 69–72). The exhortation is a clarion call to national
patriotism, but the definition of patriotism in Machiavelli is differenti-
ated between “patriotism” and “nationalism.” A nationalism that is tribal
and destructive is exclusive and built on blood and soil notions of prior
rights and ownership. This form of fearful nationalism divides the body
politic, inspiring exploitation, oppression, and scapegoating. Machia-
velli is nearly modern in his knowledge that the best patriot is allied to
the state for higher causes and the ultimate definition lies in the role of
citizens. Citizens can be lawmakers. Citizens are the country. Common
citizens need only be loyal to the laws and the people. When that is so,
a country is made strong. Calling for a prince with the vision to unite
Italy foreshadowed the rise of modern nation states (despite the fact
that Lorenzo de Medici was a fool). Machiavelli would understand the
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Anthony R. Br unello
Burns’s work identified the basic relationships that are the basis of
power and leadership. At its core, power is not an object, and is a rela-
tionship derived of perceptions about motives and resources on the
part of both ruler/leaders and followers (Burns 1978; Knutson 1972).
In Jeanne Knutson’s (1972) path-breaking work in political psychol-
ogy, human needs as exemplified in Maslow’s needs hierarchy reveal a
rich understanding that the obsession to collect power as an object is a
critical misunderstanding, and may in effect also be a signal of mental
disease.
First, power in political and social life is not an object. Power is a force
directed toward accomplishing ends or moving people and objects to
desired consequences. As philosopher Bertrand Russell (1938, 18) said,
power is the “production of intended effects.” Even so, this does not
explain what power is and how it evolves in all people. Power is not a
material possession; it is a need. All human beings must have some sense
of their own personal “power.” This means a kind of confidence, and
a sense of their own capabilities to survive, accomplish goals, and take
risks when necessary. This risk taking may be very personal (e.g., the risk
we take when falling in love), or it can be the kind of risk we take when
running for office, going to college, playing a sport, or taking a political
position (Davies 1977). We are willing to take such risks because of an
evolved internal sense we all have of our own personal ability or power.
Second, personal power is also derived from human perceptions and
relationships. For example, all human beings evolve their personal sense
of power based on material and social circumstances, including their
life experiences, their early childhood upbringing, innate faculties, and
accidents of lived experience. In the social and political sense, power
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Figure 1.
Leadership and Power Relationships.
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The measure of machiavelli?
Figure 2.
Five Legitimations of Power.
the connections between means and ends in political life. When means
and ends are torn apart, then the pathologies of evil—as Hannah
Arendt (1963) discovered in her coverage of the Eichmann Trial in
Jerusalem—will become manifest. To actually “possess” something called
power is impossible; the pursuit of power for its own sake is a fantasy and
a nightmare.
Ultimately, we know that a person is powerful when we see that they
can move people and events, shape their own lives, and call followers and
colleagues together to support common causes and achieve goals. Had
Gandhi begun one of his famous walks and no one followed, he would
not be remembered as a leader. Followers are necessary for leadership
and power to operate. This is true on the grand stages of politics, and in
our homes between family members, at our parent–teacher association
(PTA) and Little League meetings, and in corporate boardrooms. Power
is an instrument that accomplishes goals and it is a human relationship.
Generating power is essential to calling people to follow, to believe, and
to act.
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But in the man and his presidency Dowd had seen the tragic flaw. In
the political back-and-forth, the evasions, the denials, the tweeting, the
obscuring, crying “Fake News,” the indignation, Trump had one over-
riding problem that Dowd knew but could not bring himself to say to
the president: “You’re a fucking liar.”
According to the Washington Post, August 12, 2019, the president had
uttered 12,019 false or misleading statements since his inauguration. It
was asserted in November of 2018 that the president told 83 lies in one
day (Cillizza 2018). Fact-checking organizations claim they are exhausted
by the sheer volume of falsehoods proffered by Donald Trump (Kessler,
Rizzo, and Kelly 2019). The volume of lies easily surpasses Machiavelli’s
advice about the management of public perceptions. Machiavelli speaks
at length about the avoidance of flatterers, and demands a balance
between keeping faith and, of course, strategic deceptions for the suc-
cessful prince. The only reason for engaging in dishonesty would be on
behalf of the state itself. The many deceptions we might associate with
Lincoln or Franklin Roosevelt would be acceptable to Machiavelli as they
were employed in successful policy and security. Lying because you can-
not stop yourself clearly breaks Machiavelli’s rules, and Burns’s standard
for leadership. The level of mendacity engaged in by Trump undermines
democratic values, the rule of law, and a self-governing political culture,
as well as authentic “leadership.”
According to Machiavelli, we may understand a leader’s effectiveness
on two general dimensions: (1) fear/love/hatred and (2) the lion and
the fox. These are Machiavellian standards, but in the time of 21st century
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The measure of machiavelli?
Half the world’s population is online, and the other half is quickly fol-
lowing. Hundreds of millions of new internet users are projected to
join this vast digital ecosystem each year . . . As a result the internet is
now inescapable.
The online ecosystem of the social media made young people terror-
ists and members of ISIS from all over the world. The new social media
can liberate and oppress—expand knowledge and help lies and hatred
go instantly viral. Open source intelligence (OSINT) and mass moni-
toring are changing the way we gather and interpret data—for both
good and ill. Singer and Brooking (2018) describe a changing arena
of social media driven conflict, and one aspect has had an immediate
effect: Trump and the American elections of 2016 revealed a new infra-
structure of bots, troll farms, and “sock puppets,” that allowed foreign
governments and media platforms filled with hate and falsity, to have an
explosive effect in American politics.
The use of social media, and in the case of Trump particularly, com-
munication through Twitter, alters the calculus for perceptions. Our
times are called a postfact environment because instant opinion, and
politicized falsehoods—termed black propaganda—have become com-
monplace (Jowett and O’Donnell 2015). Black propaganda, as opposed
to gray and white, is noxious (especially in democracies) because it is
false, comes from unknown sources, cannot be verified, and has a pri-
mary purpose to instigate outrage, pain, anger, conflict, mob reaction,
and even violence. In the battlefield of social media, the easy ubiquity of
black propaganda, while having the power to communicate immediately
to masses of followers, is a game changer:
Those who manipulate this swirling tide, to steer its direction and flow,
can accomplish incredible good. They can free people, expose crimes,
save lives, and seed far-reaching reforms. But they can also accomplish
astonishing evil. They can foment violence, stoke hate, sow falsehoods,
incite wars, and even erode the pillars of democracy itself. (Singer and
Brooking 2018, 23)
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The sheer numbers and the speed at which such communications took
place in 2016, in Singer and Brooking’s (2018) research, are astounding.
The new social media redefines Machiavelli’s dimensions and standards.
The technology warps the context, but not the applicability.
Fear/Love/Hatred
Despite the title of Woodward’s (2018) book, the quality of fear in
Trump’s relationships is complicated. According to Johnston (2017),
there are reasons to fear Trump but not necessarily as Machiavelli pre-
scribed. In business, you should fear that Trump will not pay his bills,
honor contracts, and that you may find yourself in litigation. In the
story of how the television show The Apprentice saved Trump’s company
and finances, it is shown how his fortune and image were rescued by
celebrity. Keefe (2019) reveals that Trump’s financial situation and his
public persona were at a very low point. Ultimately, the CEO image pre-
sented in The Apprentice allowed a perception of fear to evolve (“You’re
Fired!”) and yet it was make-believe. Trump has been labeled a bully
(Foer 2019), and bullies do inspire fear, but this is a form of intimidation
Machiavelli would find wasteful and pathetic. Moreover, if this kind of
management misuses the people who work for you, and squanders this
valuable resource while undermining loyalty, as described by Johnston
(2017) and Woodward (2018), then Trump is surely out of Machiavellian
balance.
President Trump is feared due to his capricious nature and uncon-
ventional or unpredictable methods, especially in foreign policy. For
example, the NATO Allies may fear Trump’s moods, attitudes, and
policies that can ruin the alliance. At the same time, it is unlikely that
America’s chief foes (e.g., Russia, North Korea, Iran) actually fear Presi-
dent Trump. Nations may be wary of a man who moves by gut instinct,
but Russia and North Korea likely feel they have Trump under control.
Machiavelli would look unfavorably on the weakening of alliances that
provide multilateral security, strength, and commercial predictability in
a dangerous world. The fear Trump inspires damages national credibility
while unsettling many Americans in a context where the United States is
perhaps the most powerful nation on earth. The measure of Machiavelli
here is certain: the waste of resources while alienating friends and allies
is unacceptable.
Donald Trump may be loved by more than 40 percent of the Ameri-
can people. Loved is used here as a loose term but, based on analysis by
FiveThirtyEight.com (2019), the president has maintained an “Approval
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The measure of machiavelli?
Lion or Fox?
Trump is a bully, happy to insult and demean those he dislikes, fears,
finds threatening, or skirmishes with, but these are not really the attri-
butes of the lion as Machiavelli envisioned. Machiavelli saw the lion as
someone of force, skilled at the military arts, unafraid to employ excru-
ciating violence swiftly and expertly when necessary, but also a fierce
defender of allies, the people, and the nation. Machiavelli’s lion won
battles, punished foes, but tempered ferocity with intelligence. Wolin
(1992) referred to this as the “economy of violence,” and of course, no
well-designed or secure state can long endure wanton bloodshed. For
these reasons, brutal authoritarian regimes are often short lived. Trump
personally avoided military service (Johnston 2017), and although has
endeavored to ingratiate himself to military veterans, he has had some of
his worst moments of bullying against folks normally considered heroes.
The ugly attacks on the deceased Senator John McCain are examples
of this shortsighted behavior (Haberman, Karnis, and Tackett 2019).
Trump may like the image of the CEO who fires people, but he is less a
lion than he is malicious and petty.
Trump does qualify for a certain fox-like craftiness. The details of his
life and tenacious survival in a challenging financial world (although
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Thus a prince who has a strong city and does not earn his peoples’ hatred
cannot be attacked, or if he were, that attacker would be driven off to his
own disgrace; because the way things keep changing in this world, it is
almost impossible for a prince with his armies to devote an entire year to
a siege while doing nothing else. (Machiavelli 1992, chap. 10, 31)
The idea that a prince might proclaim false emergencies and waste
his forces sending them to the border for short-term political gain would
be unacceptable. To politicize security would be unthinkable to Machia-
velli, when the best course of action is to encourage a strong, secure, and
confident society. Inspiring false fears does not make a nation stronger.
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Conclusion
Trump’s presidency is not an accident. It is a complex puzzle of good
luck, timing, and clever channeling of fear and anxiety in a formerly
dominant, but now declining, cultural order (Norris and Inglehart 2019).
In spite of the way the modern world has warped and remodeled, the
Machiavellian measures and standards remain relevant today. Machiavelli
would understand President Trump. While he may be ignorant of Ameri-
can politics and government, and many other things, Trump has a native
wisdom about popular culture that carried him to the White House. In the
aftermath, the Trump government is an assault on civil rights and liberties,
in particular the role of a free press. Trump’s nationalism divides Ameri-
cans from one another; Trump fosters white nationalism and racism which,
in the end, it is destructive of authentic patriotism that draws a nation
together in a healthy way. Trump’s presidency has made an assault on the
rule of law and indulges in the kind of willful ignorance that may be the
undoing of everything. Trump’s assault on science and facts led naturally
to a rejection of climate science and the Paris Climate Accord. Trump’s
misunderstanding of foreign affairs as a zero-sum game, and his inflated con-
fidence in the force of his own personality leads him to believe that his per-
sonal touch is superior to multilateral alliances and traditional diplomacy.
Machiavelli would assess the examples of Trump walking away from
a nuclear arms treaty with Iran and his ongoing destabilization of Euro-
pean alliances, and conclude that there exist real causes for alarm. He
would view President Trump to be a selfish, fox-like creature of good for-
tune, ill equipped to be a successful president. The corrosion of repub-
lican institutions domestically while disabling international alliances
with other republics for personal gain and the profit of your enemies is
an appalling error. This does not mean Trump will not be reelected as
president. His eventual failure (from a Machiavellian measure) has little
to do with his personal fortunes, and everything to do with the vitality of
the American Republic when he is done. Despite the changed world of
communication, technology, and social media, Machiavelli can yet be a
measure of political leadership in modern times.
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