2Plata

A
4Cobre
CAJAS
4Plata
B
3Cobre

p 1 2
P ( A )∗P ( ) +
P ( Ap )= P (p)
A
=
2 6 7
19 19
1 2 1 4 19
= =0.37=37 % P ( p )= + + + =
2 6 2 7 42
42

1ROJA

U1 3/10 3BLANCAS

6AZULES

2VERDES

urnas
U2 2/5 2ROJAS

1BLANCA

2AZULES
U3
8ROJAS

1
∗1
3 1 2 1 8
P ( R )= + + + + =13/10
10 3 5 3 10
1
∗1
( U 1 )∗P
R
( )
3
P ( )
U1
R
=P
P (R )
U1
=
10
13
1
= =0.077=7.7 %
13
30
 ACCIDENTE
REVENTON
NO
ACCIDENTE
CARRETERA
ACCIDENTE
NO
REVENTON NO
ACCIDENTE

P ( A )=0.05∗0.4 +0.95∗0.15=0.1625

P(R)∗P ( AR ) ¿= 0.05∗0.4 =0.12=12 %

P ( RA )= P (A ) 0.1625

ALTOS
EJECUIVOS
U.PUBLICA
NO ALTOS
EJECUTIVOS
ECONOMISTA
ALTOS
EJECUTIVOS
U.PRIVADA
NO ALTOS
EJECUTIVOS

P ( Alt )=0.7∗0.1+ 0.3∗0.5=0.22

P ( Priv . )∗P ( Priv

Alt
) = 0.3∗0.5 =0.68=68 %
P ( Priv
alt )
=
P ( Alt ) 0.22
 0.9
malestar

A 0.1 no malestar
0.0375 malestar
1/5
B 0.9625
no malestar
1/5
0.0375
malestar
FRASCOS C
0.9625
1/5

no malestar
0.0375
1/5
D malestar
0.9625

no malestar
0.0375
malestar
E 0.9625

no malestar
 A 1
P ( A )∗P( ) ∗0.9
P( )
A
M
=
P(M )
M
=
5
0.21
=0.857=85.7 %

1 1 1 1 1
P ( M )= ∗0.9+ ∗0.0375+ ∗0.0375+ ∗0.0375+ ∗0.0375=0.21
5 5 5 5 5