Universidad Metropolitana

Estadística Inferencial
Parcial 3 de Estadística
Nombre: Javier Alejandro Navarro Serrano
Fecha: 17 de Diciembre del 2020

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Enero 5.49 5.65 5.75 5.83 5.89
Febrero 5.45 5.62 5.71 5.76 5.83
Marzo 5.59 5.76 5.87 5.89 6.01
Abril 5.59 5.75 5.85 5.85 5.98
Mayo 5.6 5.76 5.87 5.89 6.04
Junio 5.75 5.92 6.05 6.08 6.16
Julio 5.9 6.02 6.14 6.2 6.31
Agosto 5.85 6 6.15 6.22 6.33
Septiembre 5.74 5.87 6 6 6.14
Octubre 5.61 5.72 5.85 5.88 6.01
Noviembre 5.47 5.6 5.72 5.74 5.89
Diciembre 5.63 5.72 5.82 5.82 6
67.67 69.39 70.78 71.16 72.59
a) Convierta los datos en anuales y determine el componente tendencial y el cíclico.
Componente tendencial

t y ∑ty 𝑡^2 n=
1 67.67 67.67 1
2 69.39 138.78 4
3 70.78 212.34 9
4 71.16 284.64 16
5 72.59 362.95 25
6 73.85 443.1 36
21 425.44 1509.48 91

)(∑▒ 〖𝑦 ) 〗〗〗 )/(𝑛(∑▒𝑡^2)(∑▒ b=(6(1509,48)−(21)

𝑦 )−(∑▒ 〖𝑡b= 〖𝑡 ) 〗 ^2 ) 9056.88 -
(425,44))/(6(91) 240786
( 〖 21) 〗 ^2 ) =
(∑▒𝑦)/𝑛−𝑏
a= (∑▒𝑡)/𝑛= 70.9066667 - (0,00051) 3,5 = 70.90

y=a+bx = 70.90 + 0,00051X

Ciclo relativo

Ciclo relativo: yReal X 100

Yestimada

t y Real y Estimada Ciclo Relativo

1 67.67 70.905394 95.44
2 69.39 70.905904 97.86
 3 70.78 70.906414 99.82
4 71.16 70.906924 100.36
5 72.59 70.907434 102.37
6 73.85 70.907944 104.15

b) Proyecte el año 1996 dada la función de tendencia.

Suma de 12 Dividir entre Promedio

Años Periodos y Periodos 12 centrado
1 5.49
2 5.45 67.67 5.64
3 5.59 67.83 5.65 5.64583333
4 5.59 68 5.67 5.65958333
5 5.6 68.17 5.68 5.67375
1990 6 5.75 68.33 5.69 5.6875
7 5.9 68.49 5.71 5.70083333
8 5.85 68.66 5.72 5.71458333
9 5.74 68.78 5.73 5.72666667
10 5.61 68.93 5.74 5.73791667
11 5.47 69.06 5.76 5.74958333
12 5.63 69.17 5.76 5.75958333
1 5.65 69.3 5.78 5.76958333
2 5.62 69.39 5.78 5.77875
3 5.76 69.49 5.79 5.78666667
4 5.75 69.58 5.80 5.79458333
5 5.76 69.69 5.81 5.80291667
1991 6 5.92 69.79 5.82 5.81166667
7 6.02 69.9 5.83 5.82041667
8 6 70.03 5.84 5.83041667
9 5.87 70.15 5.85 5.84083333
10 5.72 70.3 5.86 5.85208333
11 5.6 70.43 5.87 5.86375
12 5.72 70.56 5.88 5.87458333
1 5.75 70.68 5.89 5.885
2 5.71 70.78 5.90 5.89416667
3 5.87 70.86 5.91 5.90166667
4 5.85 70.91 5.91 5.90708333
5 5.87 70.93 5.91 5.91
1992 6 6.05 70.93 5.91 5.91083333
7 6.14 70.95 5.91 5.91166667
8 6.15 70.98 5.92 5.91375
9 6 71.04 5.92 5.9175
10 5.85 71.11 5.93 5.92291667
11 5.72 71.11 5.93 5.92583333
12 5.82 71.14 5.93 5.92708333
1 5.83 71.16 5.93 5.92916667
2 5.76 71.16 5.93 5.93
3 5.89 71.22 5.94 5.9325
 4 5.85 71.29 5.94 5.93791667
5 5.89 71.41 5.95 5.94583333
1993 6 6.08 71.54 5.96 5.95625
7 6.2 71.69 5.97 5.96791667
8 6.22 71.77 5.98 5.9775
9 6 71.88 5.99 5.98541667
10 5.88 71.99 6.00 5.99458333
11 5.74 72.13 6.01 6.005
12 5.82 72.26 6.02 6.01625
1 5.89 72.41 6.03 6.02791667
2 5.83 72.59 6.05 6.04166667
3 6.01 72.73 6.06 6.055
4 5.98 72.87 6.07 6.06666667
5 6.04 72.9 6.08 6.07375
1994 6 6.16 73.05 6.09 6.08125
7 6.31 73.17 6.10 6.0925
8 6.33 73.29 6.11 6.1025
9 6.14 73.41 6.12 6.1125
10 6.01 73.49 6.12 6.12083333
11 5.89 73.58 6.13 6.12791667
12 6 73.7 6.14 6.13666667
1 6.03 73.78 6.15 6.145
2 5.97 73.85 6.15 6.15125
3 6.04
4 6.13
5 6.16
1995 6 6.28
7 6.43
8 6.41
9 6.23
10 6.13
11 5.97
12 6.07

c) Convierta los datos en datos trimestrales y determine el componente estacional.

Trimestres 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

1 0.97927 0.97706 0.98327 0.97712
2 0.97253 0.96875 0.97133 0.96497
3 0.99011 0.99539 0.99463 0.99284 0.99257
4 0.98771 0.99231 0.99034 0.98519 0.98571
5 0.98700 0.99260 0.99323 0.99061 0.99444
6 1.01099 1.01864 1.02354 1.02078 1.01295
7 1.03494 1.03429 1.03862 1.03889 1.03570
8 1.02370 1.02909 1.03995 1.04057 1.03728
9 1.00233 1.00499 1.01394 1.00244 1.00450
10 0.97771 0.97743 0.98769 0.98089 0.98189
 11 0.95137 0.95502 0.96527 0.95587 0.96117
12 0.97750 0.97369 0.98193 0.96738 0.97773

Factor de ajuste= 1.3951808105509

Periodos y índice estacional Y destacional t y

1 5.49 136.61979893072 4.0184512369133 1 4.01845124
2 5.45 135.15875744231 4.0322951343543 2 4.03229513
3 5.59 92.452113592617 6.0463733956715 3 6.0463734
4 5.59 91.989866381884 6.0767562992143 4 6.0767563
5 5.6 92.409689135589 6.0599706073931 5 6.05997061
6 5.75 94.481193643228 6.0858672274111 6 6.08586723
7 5.9 96.267003647163 6.1287874105074 7 6.12878741
8 5.85 96.098462558087 6.0875063390988 8 6.08750634
9 5.74 93.453515157802 6.1420910602535 9 6.14209106
10 5.61 91.120288107089 6.1566969514044 10 6.15669695
11 5.47 89.114625848262 6.138161887493 11 6.13816189
12 5.63 90.752585309278 6.2036800172837 12 6.20368002
1 5.65 136.61979893072 4.1355645698652 13 4.13556457
2 5.62 135.15875744231 4.1580731477194 14 4.15807315
3 5.76 92.452113592617 6.2302523719263 15 6.23025237
4 5.75 91.989866381884 6.2506885009808 16 6.2506885
5 5.76 92.409689135589 6.2331126247472 17 6.23311262
6 5.92 94.481193643228 6.2657972150041 18 6.26579722
7 6.02 96.267003647163 6.253440713772 19 6.25344071
8 6 96.098462558087 6.2435962452295 20 6.24359625
9 5.87 93.453515157802 6.2811976522105 21 6.28119765
10 5.72 91.120288107089 6.2774164994711 22 6.2774165
11 5.6 89.114625848262 6.2840414204682 23 6.28404142
12 5.72 90.752585309278 6.3028507458016 24 6.30285075
1 5.75 136.61979893072 4.2087604029602 25 4.2087604
2 5.71 135.15875744231 4.2246615077363 26 4.22466151
3 5.87 92.452113592617 6.3492328859735 27 6.34923289
4 5.85 91.989866381884 6.3593961270848 28 6.35939613
5 5.87 92.409689135589 6.3521477616781 29 6.35214776
6 6.05 94.481193643228 6.4033907349282 30 6.40339073
7 6.14 96.267003647163 6.3780940170365 31 6.37809402
8 6.15 96.098462558087 6.3996861513603 32 6.39968615
9 6 93.453515157802 6.4203042441674 33 6.42030424
10 5.85 91.120288107089 6.4200850562773 34 6.42008506
11 5.72 89.114625848262 6.4186994509068 35 6.41869945
12 5.82 90.752585309278 6.4130404441547 36 6.41304044
1 5.83 136.61979893072 4.2673170694362 37 4.26731707
2 5.76 135.15875744231 4.261655041079 38 4.26165504
3 5.89 92.452113592617 6.3708657067094 39 6.37086571
4 5.85 91.989866381884 6.3593961270848 40 6.35939613
 5 5.89 92.409689135589 6.3737905138474 41 6.37379051
6 6.08 94.481193643228 6.4351430856799 42 6.43514309
7 6.2 96.267003647163 6.4404206686688 43 6.44042067
8 6.22 96.098462558087 6.4725281075546 44 6.47252811
9 6 93.453515157802 6.4203042441674 45 6.42030424
10 5.88 91.120288107089 6.4530085693864 46 6.45300857
11 5.74 89.114625848262 6.4411424559799 47 6.44114246
12 5.82 90.752585309278 6.4130404441547 48 6.41304044
1 5.89 136.61979893072 4.3112345692931 49 4.31123457
2 5.83 135.15875744231 4.3134459877588 50 4.31344599
3 6.01 92.452113592617 6.5006626311245 51 6.50066263
4 5.98 91.989866381884 6.50071604102 52 6.50071604
5 6.04 92.409689135589 6.5361111551168 53 6.53611116
6 6.16 94.481193643228 6.5198160210178 54 6.51981602
7 6.31 96.267003647163 6.5546861966613 55 6.5546862
8 6.33 96.098462558087 6.5869940387172 56 6.58699404
9 6.14 93.453515157802 6.570111343198 57 6.57011134
10 6.01 91.120288107089 6.5956771261926 58 6.59567713
11 5.89 89.114625848262 6.6094649940281 59 6.60946499
12 6 90.752585309278 6.6113819011904 60 6.6113819
1 6.03 136.61979893072 4.4137087356261 61 4.41370874
2 5.97 135.15875744231 4.4170278811183 62 4.41702788
3 6.04 92.452113592617 6.5331118622283 63 6.53311186
4 6.13 91.989866381884 6.663777480176 64 6.66377748
5 6.16 92.409689135589 6.6659676681324 65 6.66596767
6 6.28 94.481193643228 6.6468254240246 66 6.64682542
7 6.43 96.267003647163 6.6793394999259 67 6.6793395
8 6.41 96.098462558087 6.6702419886535 68 6.67024199
9 6.23 93.453515157802 6.6664159068605 69 6.66641591
10 6.13 91.120288107089 6.727371178629 70 6.72737118
11 5.97 89.114625848262 6.6992370143205 71 6.69923701
12 6.07 90.752585309278 6.6885146900377 72 6.68851469
2628 434.830621

𝑦 )−(∑▒ 〖𝑡b= (72(162572,202)−(2628)(434,830621))/

)(∑▒ 〖𝑦 ) 〗〗〗 )/(𝑛(∑▒𝑡^2)(∑▒ 〖𝑡 ) 〗 ^2 )= 1170518.55
(72(127020)( 〖 2628) 〗 ^2 )= 72

(∑▒𝑦)/𝑛−𝑏
a= (∑▒𝑡)/𝑛= 6.04 - (0,000056) X 36,5 = 6.04

y=a+bt Y= 6,04+ 0,00056t

 1995
6.03
5.97
6.04
6.13
6.16
6.28
6.43
6.41
6.23
6.13
5.97
6.07
73.85
y el cíclico.

6
𝑎=(∑▒𝑦)/𝑛= 425.44 = 70.91
6

𝑏 (∑▒𝑡)/𝑛= 21 = 3.5
6

8934.24 = 122.64 = 0.00051

240786
 Valor
Estacional

0.99011
0.98771
0.98700
1.01099
1.03494
1.02370
1.00233
0.97771
0.95137
0.97750
0.97927
0.97253
0.99539
0.99231
0.99260
1.01864
1.03429
1.02909
1.00499
0.97743
0.95502
0.97369
0.97706
0.96875
0.99463
0.99034
0.99323
1.02354
1.03862
1.03995
1.01394
0.98769
0.96527
0.98193
0.98327
0.97133
0.99284
 0.98519
0.99061
1.02078
1.03889
1.04057
1.00244
0.98089
0.95587
0.96738
0.97712
0.96497
0.99257
0.98571
0.99444
1.01295
1.03570
1.03728
1.00450
0.98189
0.96117
0.97773
0.98129
0.97053

ponente estacional.

1995 Media modificada Índice

0.98129 0.9792 136.6197989
0.97053 0.9693 135.15875744
0.6627 92.452113593
0.6593 91.989866382
0.6623 92.409689136
0.6772 94.481193643
0.6900 96.267003647
0.6888 96.098462558
0.6698 93.453515158
0.6531 91.120288107
 0.6387 89.114625848
0.6505 90.752585309
8.6010

ty 𝑡^2
4.01845124 1
8.06459027 4
18.1391202 9
24.3070252 16
30.299853 25
36.5152034 36
42.9015119 49
48.7000507 64
55.2788195 81
61.5669695 100
67.5197808 121
74.4441602 144
53.7623394 169
58.2130241 196
93.4537856 225
100.011016 256
105.962915 289
112.78435 324
118.815374 361
124.871925 400
131.905151 441
138.103163 484
144.532953 529
151.268418 576
105.21901 625
109.841199 676
171.429288 729
178.063092 784
184.212285 841
192.101722 900
197.720915 961
204.789957 1024
211.87004 1089
218.282892 1156
224.654481 1225 𝑎=(∑▒𝑦)/𝑛= 434.830621 = 6.04
230.869456 1296 72
157.890732 1369
161.942892 1444
248.463763 1521
254.375845 1600 𝑏 (∑▒𝑡)/𝑛= 2628 = 36.5
 𝑏 (∑▒𝑡)/𝑛=
261.325411 1681 72
270.27601 1764
276.938089 1849
284.791237 1936
288.913691 2025
296.838394 2116
302.733695 2209 n= 72
307.825941 2304
211.250494 2401
215.672299 2500
331.533794 2601
338.037234 2704
346.413891 2809
352.070065 2916
360.507741 3025
368.871666 3136
374.496347 3249
382.549273 3364
389.958435 3481
396.682914 3600
269.236233 3721
273.855729 3844
411.586047 3969
426.481759 4096
433.287898 4225
438.690478 4356
447.515746 4489
453.576455 4624
459.982698 4761
470.915983 4900
475.645828 5041
481.573058 5184
16257.202 127020

- 1142734.87311083 = 27783.6743 = 0.000056

X 6906384 497259648