Gilber Gómez Familia

2019-2854

Resuelve el siguiente problema planteado:

Promedio móvil a 3 años

Años Demanda Formula Promedio

1 4
2 6
3 5
4 4 (4+6+5)/3= 5.00
5 10 (6+5+4)/3= 5.00
6 8 (5+4+10)/3= 6.33
7 7 (4+10+8)/3= 7.33
8 9 (10+8+7)/3= 8.33
9 12 (8+7+9)/3= 8.00
10 14 (7+9+12)/3= 9.33
11 15 (9+12+14)/3= 11.67
?? (12+14+15)/3= 13.67

Promedio móvil ponderado

Años Demanda Formula Promedio

1 4
2 6
3 5
4 4 [(4*3)+(6*2)+5]/6= 5.17
5 10 [(6*3)+(5*2)+4]/6= 4.67
6 8 [(5*3)+(4*2)+10]/6= 7.17
7 7 [(4*3)+(10*2)+8]/6= 8.00
8 9 [(10*3)+(8*2)+7]/6= 7.83
9 12 [(8*3)+(7*2)+9]/6= 8.17
10 14 [(7*3)+(9*2)+12]/6= 10.17
11 15 [(9*3)+(12*2)+14]/6= 12.50
?? [(12*3)+(14*2)+15]/6= 14.17
 Gilber Gómez Familia
2019-2854

Suavizamiento de 0,37

Años Demanda Formula Promedio

1 4 3.00
2 6 3+0.37*(6-3) = 4.11
3 5 4.11+0.37*(5-4.11) = 4.44
4 4 4.44+0.37*(4-4.44) = 4.28
5 10 4.28+0.37*(10-4.28) = 6.39
6 8 6.39+0.37*(8-6.39) = 6.99
7 7 6.99+0.37*(7-6.99) = 6.99
8 9 6.99+0.37*(9-6.99) = 7.74
9 12 7.74+0.37*(12-7.74) = 9.31
10 14 9.31+0.37*(15-9.31) = 11.05
11 15 11.05+0.37*(15-11.05) = 12.51
?? 12.51+0.37*(-12.51) = 7.88