PROBLEMA 5

Ray Anderson, el propietario de Anderson Ski Lodge, firma que opera en el norte de Nueva York, tiene
interés en proyectar el número de visitantes del próximo año. Dispone de los siguientes datos, por
trimestre, desde 2010.
a) Elabore el índice estacional de cada trimestre.
b) ¿Cuántos visitantes esperaría en cada trimestre de 2018, si Ray proyecta que en 2019 el
número total de visitantes aumentará 10%?
c) Determine la ecuación de tendencia, proyecte el número de visitantes de 2018 y ajuste
estacionalmente la proyección.
d) ¿Qué proyección elegiría?

AÑO TRIMESTRE VISITANTE

I 86
II 62
2010
III 28
IV 94
I 106
II 82
2011
III 48
IV 114
I 140
II 120
2012
III 82
IV 154
I 162
II 140
2013
III 100
IV 174
I 188
II 172
2014
III 128
IV 198
I 208
II 202
2015
III 154
IV 220
I 248
II 240
2016
III 190
IV 252
I 280
II 190
2017
III 140
IV 300
 Promedio Promedio
Total Móvil de 4 centrado de 4 % del valor real
AÑO TRIMESTRE VISITANTE trimestres
móvil de 4
de PM
trimestres trimestres
I 86
II 62
2010
III 28 70 40
IV 94 270 67.5 75 125.333333
I 106 290 72.5 80 132.5
II 82 310 77.5 85 96.4705882
2011
III 48 330 82.5 91.75 52.3160763
IV 114 350 87.5 100.75 113.151365
I 140 384 96 109.75 127.562642
II 120 422 105.5 119 100.840336
2012
III 82 456 114 126.75 64.6942801
IV 154 496 124 132 116.666667
I 162 518 129.5 136.75 118.464351
II 140 538 134.5 141.5 98.9399293
2013
III 100 556 139 147.25 67.9117148
IV 174 576 144 154.5 112.621359
I 188 602 150.5 162 116.049383
II 172 634 158.5 168.5 102.077151
2014
III 128 662 165.5 174 73.5632184
IV 198 686 171.5 180.25 109.847434
I 208 706 176.5 187.25 111.081442
II 202 736 184 193.25 104.527814
2015
III 154 762 190.5 201 76.6169154
IV 220 784 196 210.75 104.389087
I 248 824 206 220 112.727273
II 240 862 215.5 228.5 105.032823
2016
III 190 898 224.5 236.5 80.3382664
IV 252 930 232.5 234.25 107.577375
I 280 962 240.5 221.75 126.26832
II 190 912 228 221.5 85.778781
2017
III 140 862 215.5
IV 300 910 227.5

INDICE Ventas Valor central Semi

AÑO TRIMESTRE VISITANTE desestacional X
ESTACIONAL izadas X promedio Y

I 86 6.01071969 14.3077709 1
II 62 5.0285581875 12.3295779 2
2010
III 28 3.3510220496 8.35565973 3
IV 94 4.5228682477 20.7832718 4
I 106 6.01071969 17.6351594 5

2011

8.5 22.3767452
 II 82 5.0285581875 16.3068611 6
2011
III 48 3.3510220496 14.3239881 7
IV 114 4.5228682477 25.2052445 8
8.5 22.3767452
I 140 6.01071969 23.29172 9
II 120 5.0285581875 23.8636992 10
2012
III 82 3.3510220496 24.4701464 11
IV 154 4.5228682477 34.0491899 12
I 162 6.01071969 26.9518474 13
II 140 5.0285581875 27.8409824 14
2013
III 100 3.3510220496 29.8416419 15
IV 174 4.5228682477 38.4711626 16
I 188 6.01071969 31.2774526 17
II 172 5.0285581875 34.2046355 18
2014
III 128 3.3510220496 38.1973016 19
IV 198 4.5228682477 43.7775299 20
I 208 6.01071969 34.6048411 21
II 202 5.0285581875 40.1705603 22
2015
III 154 3.3510220496 45.9561285 23
IV 220 4.5228682477 48.6416999 24
24.75 44.4192914
I 248 6.01071969 41.2596183 25
II 240 5.0285581875 47.7273984 26
2016
III 190 3.3510220496 56.6991196 27
IV 252 4.5228682477 55.7168563 28
I 280 6.01071969 46.58344 30
II 190 5.0285581875 37.7841904 31
2017
III 140 3.3510220496 41.7782987 32
IV 300 4.5228682477 66.3295908 33
 Año I II III IV
2010 - - 40 125.333333
2011 132.5 96.4705882 52.3160763 113.151365
2012 127.562642 100.840336 64.6942801 116.666667
2013 118.464351 98.9399293 67.9117148 112.621359
2014 116.049383 102.077151 73.5632184 109.847434
2015 111.081442 104.527814 76.6169154 104.389087
2016 112.727273 105.032823 80.3382664 107.577375
2017 126.26832 85.778781 - -

Año I II III IV
2010 - - - -
2011 - 96.4705882 52.3160763 113.151365
2012 127.562642 100.840336 64.6942801 116.666667
2013 118.464351 98.9399293 67.9117148 112.621359
2014 116.049383 102.077151 73.5632184 109.847434
2015 - 104.527814 76.6169154 -
2016 112.727273 - - 107.577375
2017 126.26832 - - -

SUMA MODIFICADA 601.071969 502.855819 335.102205 452.286825

MEDIA MODIFICADA 300.535984 251.427909 167.551102 226.143412
INDICE ESTACIONAL 710.510952 594.412292 396.115272 534.636049

Σ MEDIA MODIFICADA 945.658409 y1=a+bx1 a= 10.846798

FACTOR DE AJUSTE 2.36414602 y2=a+bx2 b= 1.35646438

Ecuacion datos de la
% tendencia residuos
recta recta

12.2032624 10.0744952 142.01973 42.0197297

12.2032624 11.7147952 105.247917 5.24791693
12.2032624 13.3550952 62.5653326 -37.4346674
12.2032624 14.9953952 138.597693 38.5976928
12.2032624 16.6356952 106.00795 6.00794986
12.2032624 18.2759952 89.2255713 -10.7744287
12.2032624 19.9162952 71.920947 -28.079053
12.2032624 21.5565952 116.925907 16.9259072
12.2032624 23.1968952 100.408782 0.40878228
12.2032624 24.8371952 96.0804914 -3.91950859
12.2032624 26.4774952 92.4186603 -7.58133965
12.2032624 28.1177952 121.094807 21.0948074
12.2032624 29.7580952 90.5698004 -9.4301996
12.2032624 31.3983952 88.6700808 -11.3299192
12.2032624 33.0386952 90.3233064 -9.67669359
12.2032624 34.6789952 110.935056 10.9350557
12.2032624 36.3192952 86.1180053 -13.8819947
12.2032624 37.9595952 90.1080092 -9.89199084
12.2032624 39.5998952 96.4580877 -3.54191233
12.2032624 41.2401952 106.152577 6.15257687
12.2032624 42.8804952 80.7006565 -19.2993435
12.2032624 44.5207952 90.2287575 -9.77124254
12.2032624 46.1610952 99.5559753 -0.44402472
12.2032624 47.8013952 101.757908 1.75790832
12.2032624 49.4416952 83.4510591 -16.5489409
12.2032624 51.0819952 93.4329174 -6.56708256
12.2032624 52.7222952 107.542965 7.54296526
12.2032624 54.3625952 102.491163 2.49116336
12.2032624 57.6431952 80.8134244 -19.1865756
12.2032624 59.2834952 63.734755 -36.265245
12.2032624 60.9237952 68.5746817 -31.4253183
12.2032624 62.5640952 106.018621 6.01862068
-16.25 -22.0425462