Ventas Pronóstico error

n=3
Xt Xt e 1 = X t - Xt |e1 = Xt - Xt| e1 = (Xt - Xt)2 (Xt-Xt)/Xt
1 1,250
2 1,150 1,400
3 970
1,200
4 1,100 1,123 -23 23 544 0.02
5 1,170 1,073 97 97 9,344 0.08 1,000
6 1,080 1,080 0 0 0 0.00
800
7 1,120 1,117 3 3 11 0.00
8 1,230 1,123 107 107 11,378 0.09 600
9 1,210 1,143 67 67 4,444 0.06
400
10 1,050 1,187 -137 137 18,678 0.13
11 1,030 1,163 -133 133 17,778 0.13 200
12 990 1,097 -107 107 11,378 0.11
0
13 1,160 1,023 137 137 18,678 0.12 0 2 4 6
14 1,200 1,060 140 140 19,600 0.12
15 1,180 1,117 63 63 4,011 0.05
16 1,260 1,180 80 80 6,400 0.06
17 1,230 1,213 17 17 278 0.01
18 1,190 1,223 -33 33 1,111 0.03
19 1,227 76 8,242 6.73%
DAM EMC MAPE

DAM (MAD) Desviación Absoluta Media n=3

EMC Error Medio Cuadrado n=2
MAPE % Error de los Medios Absolutos

Ventas Pronóstico error

n=2
Xt Xt e 1 = X t - Xt |e1 = Xt - Xt| e1 = (Xt - Xt)2 (Xt-Xt)/Xt
1 1,250 1,400
2 1,150
3 970 1,200 -230 230 52,900 0.24 1,200
4 1,100 1,060 40 40 1,600 0.04
1,000
5 1,170 1,035 135 135 18,225 0.12
6 1,080 1,135 -55 55 3,025 0.05 800
7 1,120 1,125 -5 5 25 0.00
600
8 1,230 1,100 130 130 16,900 0.11
9 1,210 1,175 35 35 1,225 0.03 400
10 1,050 1,220 -170 170 28,900 0.16
200
11 1,030 1,130 -100 100 10,000 0.10
12 990 1,040 -50 50 2,500 0.05 0
0 2
13 1,160 1,010 150 150 22,500 0.13
14 1,200 1,075 125 125 15,625 0.10
15 1,180 1,180 0 0 0 0.00
16 1,260 1,190 70 70 4,900 0.06
17 1,230 1,220 10 10 100 0.01
18 1,190 1,245 -55 55 3,025 0.05
19 1,210 85 11,341 7.70%
DAM EMC MAPE
 Chart Title

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Pronóstico DAM EMC MAPE

1,227 76 8,242 6.73%
1,210 85 11,341 7.70%

Chart Title
1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
 Ventas Pronóstico error
n=3
Xt Xt e 1 = Xt - X t |e1 = Xt - Xt| e1 = (Xt - Xt)2 (Xt-Xt)/Xt
1 1,250
2 1,150
3 970
4 1,100 1,123 23 544 0.02
5 1,170 1,073 97 9,344 0.08
6 1,080 1,080 0 0 0.00
7 1,120 1,117 3 11 0.00
8 1,230 1,123 107 11,378 0.09
9 1,210 1,143 67 4,444 0.06
10 1,050 1,187 137 18,678 0.13
11 1,030 1,163 133 17,778 0.13
12 990 1,097 107 11,378 0.11
13 1,160 1,023 137 18,678 0.12
14 1,200 1,060 140 19,600 0.12
15 1,180 1,117 63 4,011 0.05
16 1,260 1,180 80 6,400 0.06
17 1,230 1,213 17 278 0.01
18 1,190 1,223 33 1,111 0.03
19 1,227 76 8,242 6.73%
DAM EMC MAPE
 Ventas Pronóstico error
n=2
Xt Xt e 1 = Xt - X t |e1 = Xt - Xt| e1 = (Xt - Xt)2 (Xt-Xt)/Xt
1 1,250
2 1,150
3 970 1,200 230 52,900 0.24
4 1,100 1,060 40 1,600 0.04 Chart Title
5 1,170 1,035 135 18,225
1,400 0.12
6 1,080 1,135 55 3,025 0.05
1,200
7 1,120 1,125 5 25 0.00
8 1,230 1,100 130 1,000
16,900 0.11
9 1,210 1,175 35 1,225
800 0.03
10 1,050 1,220 170 28,900 0.16
600
11 1,030 1,130 100 10,000 0.10
990 1,040 50 400
2,500 0.05
12
13 1,160 1,010 150 22,500
200 0.13
14 1,200 1,075 125 15,625 0.10
0
15 1,180 1,180 0 01 2 3 0.00
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
16 1,260 1,190 70 4,900 0.06 Column K Column L
17 1,230 1,220 10 100 0.01
18 1,190 1,245 55 3,025 0.05
19 1,210 85 11,341 7.70%
DAM EMC MAPE
 Ventas Pronóstico error
n=3
Xt Xt e 1 = Xt - X t |e1 = Xt - Xt| e1 = (Xt - Xt)2 (Xt-Xt)/Xt
1 1,250
2 1,150
3 970
Chart Title 4 1,100 1,123 23 544 0.02
5 1,170 1,073 97 9,344 0.08
6 1,080 1,080 0 0 0.00
7 1,120 1,117 3 11 0.00
8 1,230 1,123 107 11,378 0.09
9 1,210 1,143 67 4,444 0.06
10 1,050 1,187 137 18,678 0.13
11 1,030 1,163 133 17,778 0.13
12 990 1,097 107 11,378 0.11
13 1,160 1,023 137 18,678 0.12
14 1,200 1,060 140 19,600 0.12
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 17 18 19
1,180 1,117 63 4,011 0.05
Column K Column L 16
1,260 1,180 80 6,400 0.06
17 1,230 1,213 17 278 0.01
18 1,190 1,223 33 1,111 0.03
19 1,227 76 8,242 6.73%
 Ventas Pronóstico
n=3
Xt Xt e 1 = Xt - X t |e1 = Xt - Xt| e1 = (Xt - Xt)2
1 1,250
2 1,150
3 970
1,400
4 1,100 1,123 -23 23 544
5 1,170 1,073 97 97 9,344
1,080 1,080 0 0 0 1,200
6
7 1,120 1,117 3 3 11
8 1,230 1,123 107 107 11,378 1,000

9 1,210 1,143 67 67 4,444

10 1,050 1,187 -137 137 18,678 800
11 1,030 1,163 -133 133 17,778
12 990 1,097 -107 107 11,378 600
13 1,160 1,023 137 137 18,678
14 1,200 1,060 140 140 19,600 400
15 1,180 1,117 63 63 4,011
16 1,260 1,180 80 80 6,400 200
17 1,230 1,213 17 17 278
18 1,190 1,223 -33 33 1,111 0
1 2 3 4 5 6
19 1,227

Promedio Móvil
DAM = 76.2
EMC = 8,242
1,400

1,200

1,000

800
Ventas
Pronóstico
600

400

200

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
 Ventas
n=3
Xt Pronosticor
1 1,250
2 1,150
3 970
4 1,100 1,123 0.02121212 23.3 544.444444
5 1,170 1,073 0.08262108 96.7 9344.44444
6 1,080 1,080 0 0.0 0
7 1,120 1,117 0.00297619 3.3 11.1111111
8 1,230 1,123 0.08672087 106.7 11377.7778
9 1,210 1,143 0.05509642 66.7 4444.44444
10 1,050 1,187 0.13015873 136.7 18677.7778
11 1,030 1,163 0.12944984 133.3 17777.7778
12 990 1,097 0.10774411 106.7 11377.7778
13 1,160 1,023 0.11781609 136.7 18677.7778
14 1,200 1,060 0.11666667 140.0 19600
15 1,180 1,117 0.05367232 63.3 4011.11111
16 1,260 1,180 0.06349206 80.0 6400
17 1,230 1,213 0.01355014 16.7 277.777778
18 1,190 1,223 0.0280112 33.3 1111.11111
19 1,227
6.7% 76.2 8242.22222
mape dam emc
 Ventas Pronóstico
n=2
Xt Xt e 1 = Xt - X t |e1 = Xt - Xt| e1 = (Xt - Xt)2
1 1,250
2 1,150
3 970 1,200 -230 230 52,900
1,400
4 1,100 1,060 40 40 1,600
5 1,170 1,035 135 135 18,225
1,080 1,135 -55 55 3,025 1,200
6
7 1,120 1,125 -5 5 25
8 1,230 1,100 130 130 16,900 1,000

9 1,210 1,175 35 35 1,225

10 1,050 1,220 -170 170 28,900 800
11 1,030 1,130 -100 100 10,000
12 990 1,040 -50 50 2,500 600
13 1,160 1,010 150 150 22,500
14 1,200 1,075 125 125 15,625 400
15 1,180 1,180 0 0 0
16 1,260 1,190 70 70 4,900 200
17 1,230 1,220 10 10 100
18 1,190 1,245 -55 55 3,025 0
1 2 3 4 5 6
19 1,210

Promedio Móvil
DAM = 85
EMC = 11,341
1,400

1,200

1,000

800
Ventas
Pronóstico
600

400

200

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
 Ventas
n=2
Xt Pronostico
1 1,250
2 1,150
3 970 1,200 230 52900 0.2371134
4 1,100 1,060 40 1600 0.03636364
5 1,170 1,035 135 18225 0.11538462
6 1,080 1,135 55 3025 0.05092593
7 1,120 1,125 5 25 0.00446429
8 1,230 1,100 130 16900 0.10569106
9 1,210 1,175 35 1225 0.02892562
10 1,050 1,220 170 28900 0.16190476
11 1,030 1,130 100 10000 0.09708738
12 990 1,040 50 2500 0.05050505
13 1,160 1,010 150 22500 0.12931034
14 1,200 1,075 125 15625 0.10416667
15 1,180 1,180 0 0 0
16 1,260 1,190 70 4900 0.05555556
17 1,230 1,220 10 100 0.00813008
18 1,190 1,245 55 3025 0.04621849
19 1,210 85 11340.625 7.70%
dam emc mape
 Ventas Pronóstico
n=2
Xt Xt e 1 = Xt - X t |e1 = Xt - Xt| e1 = (Xt - Xt)2
1 1,250
2 1,150
3 970 1,200 230 52,900 0.2371134
4 1,100 1,060 40 1,600 0.03636364
5 1,170 1,035 135 18,225 0.11538462
6 1,080 1,135 55 3,025 0.05092593
7 1,120 1,125 5 25 0.00446429
8 1,230 1,100 130 16,900 0.10569106
9 1,210 1,175 35 1,225 0.02892562
10 1,050 1,220 170 28,900 0.16190476
11 1,030 1,130 100 10,000 0.09708738
12 990 1,040 50 2,500 0.05050505
13 1,160 1,010 150 22,500 0.12931034
14 1,200 1,075 125 15,625 0.10416667
15 1,180 1,180 0 0 0
16 1,260 1,190 70 4,900 0.05555556
17 1,230 1,220 10 100 0.00813008
18 1,190 1,245 55 3,025 0.04621849
19 1,210 85 11,341 7.698%