Deber 4

a)

baja 50

Median 200
pequeño
Alta 500

Baja 15
grande
Mediana 200

Alta 200

b)

optimista = selecciona la planta pequeña

conservador = selecciona la planta grande

deploracion = selecciona la planta grande

P(s1) = 0.5 P(s2)=0.2 P(S3)=0.2 P(s4)= 0.1

A) U= 1(0.5)+2(0.2)+3(0.2)+ 4(0.1) = 1.8

b)

d1= (0.5)(14) + (0.2)(9)+(0.2)(10)+(0.1)(5) = 11.3

d2= (0.5)(11) + (0.2)(10)+(0.2)(8)+(0.1)(7) = 9.8

d3= (0.5)(9) + (0.2)(10)+(0.2)(10)+(0.1)(11) = 9.6

d4= (0.5)(8) + (0.2)(10)+(0.2)(11)+(0.1)(13) = 8.5

 baja media alta
Pequeño 400 400 400
mediano 100 600 600
grande -300 300 900

valor esperado

pequeño = (0.20)(400)+(0.35)(400)+(0.45)(400)=400

mediano = (0.20)(100)+(0.35)(600)+(0.45)(600)=500

grande = (0.20)(-300)+(0.35)(300)+(0.45)(900)=450

la mejor decisión es el mediano ya que tiene el mayor valor esperado

 S1 S2
d1 80 50
d2 65 85
d3 30 100

VE(d 1) = P(S1)(80) – P(s1)(50)

VE(d 1) = P(80) + (1-p)(50)

VE(d 1) = 80p + (50-50p)

VE(d 1) = 30p + 50

VE(d 2) = P(S2)(65) – P(s2)(85)

VE(d 1) = P(65) + (1-p)(85)

VE(d 1) = 65p + (85-85p)

VE(d 1) = -20p + 85

VE(d 3) = P(S1)(30) – P(s2)(100)

VE(d 1) = P(30) + (1-p)(100)

VE(d 1) = 30p + (100-100p)

VE(d 1) = -70p + 100

VE(d 1) = VE(d 2) VE(d2) = VE (d 3)

30p+50 = -20p+85 -20p+85 =-70p+100

30p+10p=85-50 -20p+70p = 100-85

50p=35 50p =15

P=0.7 p=0.3

Elvalor esperado para

d 1 = p  ≤ 0.7

d 2 = 0.3 ≥ p ≥ 0.7

d 3 = p ≤ 0.3

rechazar 1 año 2 años

p 0.2 0.3 0.5
d1 -100 50 150
D2 100 100 100

VE(d 1) = (-100)(0.2)+(50)(0.3)+(150)(0.5) =70

VE(d 1) = (100)(0.2)+(100)(0.3)+(100)(0.5) =100

VE IP = (100)(0.2)+(100)(0.3)+(150)(0.5) =125

V IP= 125- 100 = 25

Lo maximo que la empresa debe pagar para lograr informacion confidencial es de $25000