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Correlacion Interpretaciones
Correlacion Interpretaciones
yt = 0 + 1 x3t + t
Dependent Variable: Y
Method: Least Squares
Date: 12/05/01 Time: 15:14
Sample(adjusted): 1957 1976
Included observations: 20 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 197998.0 11469.56 17.26291 0.0000
X3 2.098323 0.069917 30.01154 0.0000
R-squared 0.980407 Mean dependent var 451615.0
Adjusted R-squared 0.979318 S.D. dependent var 241154.3
S.E. of regression 34680.61 Akaike info criterion 23.84039
Sum squared resid 2.16E+10 Schwarz criterion 23.93996
Log likelihood -236.4039 F-statistic 900.6924
Durbin-Watson stat 0.801647 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
8
Series: Residuals
Sample 1957 1976
Observations 20
6
Mean 5.75E-11
Median -5190.772
Maximum 71837.48
4
Minimum -58731.14
Std. Dev. 33755.63
Skewness 0.349618
2 Kurtosis 2.390372
Jarque-Bera 0.717148
Probability 0.698672
0
-75000 -50000 -25000 0 25000 50000 75000
Autocorrelograma
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID
Method: Least Squares
Date: 12/05/01 Time: 15:18
et = 0.606 et-1 + vt
Matriz de covarianzas
C FINANC AR(1)
C 763834462.555 -2701.72868633 1815.12782749
FINANC -2701.72868633 0.0165085680324 -0.00382486585408
AR(1) 1815.12782749 -0.00382486585408 0.0437750893526
yt = 0 + 1 x1t + t
6
Series: Residuals
Sample 1957 1976
5 Observations 20
4 Mean -1.82E-11
Median -5416.766
Maximum 113460.3
3
Minimum -74745.72
Std. Dev. 42938.32
2 Skewness 0.697315
Kurtosis 3.740596
1
Jarque-Bera 2.077896
Probability 0.353827
0
-50000 0 50000 100000
a) Analice los resultados obtenidos, interprete los estadísticos de Durbin-
Watson y de Ljung – Box, Bera- Jarque.
b1) Escriba el modelo para la producción agrícola, con los coeficientes de MCG
32753.62
ˆ1* 32753.62 luego ˆ1 62387.8476
1 0.475
ˆ 2* 124.444 ˆ 2
b2) Obtenga la matriz de varianzas y covarianzas para los coeficientes del modelo
S ˆ *
ˆ2 127511.2
S ˆ ˆ 1
242878.4762
1 2
(1 ) (1 0.475)
1146485261 242878.4762
V ( ˆ )
242878.4762 68.05637
b3) Obtenga una predicción puntual e interválica para 1977 si Empleados = 6860
YˆT h E (YˆT h / T ) X T´ h ˆ ˆ h eT
Predicción puntual
Predicción interválica
L YˆT 1 t 1 / 2 X T´ 1 V ( ˆ ) X T 1 v2
1146485261 242878.4762 1
X T' 1V ( ˆ ) X T 1 1 6860
242878.4762 68.05637 6860
1016898117
Mean 3.97E-11
6 Median 2553.024
Maximum 63108.35
Minimum -52960.45
4 Std. Dev. 26997.13
Skewness 0.124209
Kurtosis 3.156167
2
Jarque-Bera 0.071750
Probability 0.964761
0
-75000 -50000 -25000 0 25000 50000 75000