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FECHA : NOV- 2020
POBLACION FUTURA - DISTRITO DE CHUQUIBAMBA, PROVINC
DEPARTAMENTO Y REGION AREQUIPA
1. METODO ARITMÉTICO
DATOS DE CENSO
POBLACION
CENSO
TOTAL
1972 3,008
1981 2,589
1993 2,576
2007 2,796
2017 3,290
CENSOS
1972 1981
1972 1993
1972 2007
1972 2017
1981 1993
1981 2007
1981 2017
1993 2007
1993 2017
2007 2017
CENSOS
1972 1981 1993
1972 1981 2007
1972 1981 2017
1972 1993 2007
1972 1993 2017
1972 2007 2017
1981 1993 2007
1981 1993 2017
1981 2007 2017
1993 2007 2017
CENSOS
1972 1981 1993 2007
1972 1981 1993 2017
1972 1981 2007 2017
1981 1993 2007 2017
1972 1993 2007 2017
CENSOS
1972 1981 1993 2007 2017
ARITMETICA
CURVA TASA 1972 1981 1993
CENSOS 3,008 2,589 2,576
1 -0.69% 4,307 4,104 3,833
2 -0.17% 3,541 3,491 3,424
3 0.29% 2,857 2,944 3,059
4 -0.17% 3,536 3,487 3,421
5 0.30% 2,851 2,938 3,056
6 0.24% 2,941 3,010 3,104
7 0.31% 2,832 2,924 3,046
8 0.76% 2,171 2,395 2,693
9 0.71% 2,235 2,446 2,727
10 1.09% 1,673 1,997 2,428
11 -0.17% 3,539 3,489 3,423
12 0.30% 2,853 2,940 3,057
13 0.26% 2,904 2,981 3,084
14 0.71% 2,233 2,444 2,726
15 0.26% 2,900 2,978 3,082
16 0.26% 2,903 2,980 3,083
Curva seleccionada:
GRAFICA DE METODO ARITMETICO
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
POBLACION
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1960 1970 1980 1990
AÑOS
AMBA, PROVINCIA CONDESUYOS,
ON AREQUIPA
TASA (%)
TOTAL
r -1.55%
r -0.68%
r -0.20%
r 0.21%
r -0.04%
r 0.31%
r 0.75%
r 0.61%
r 1.15%
r 1.77%
TASA (%)
TOTAL
r1 -0.69%
r2 -0.17%
r3 0.29%
r4 -0.17%
r5 0.30%
r6 0.24%
r7 0.31%
r8 0.76%
r9 0.71%
r10 1.09%
TASA (%)
TOTAL
r11 -0.17%
r12 0.30%
r13 0.26%
r14 0.71%
r15 0.26%
TASA (%)
TOTAL
r16 0.26%
CA
2007 2017 SUMATORIADIFERENCIA
2,796 3,290 14,259 0
3,833 3,290 19,367 5,108
3,424 3,290 17,170 2,911
3,059 3,290 15,210 951
3,421 3,290 17,156 2,897
3,056 3,290 15,190 931
3,104 3,290 15,448 1,189
3,046 3,290 15,138 879
2,693 3,290 13,242 1,017
2,727 3,290 13,424 835 MENOR DIFERENCIA
2,428 3,290 11,815 2,444
3,423 3,290 17,164 2,905
3,057 3,290 15,197 938
3,084 3,290 15,343 1,084
2,726 3,290 13,419 840
3,082 3,290 15,333 1,074
3,083 3,290 15,339 1,080
Po = 3,290 habitantes
r = 0.71 %
Pf(2020)= 3360
AÑOS
POBLACION FUTURA - DISTRITO DE CHUQUIBAMBA, PROVINCIA
CONDESUYOS, DEPARTAMENTO Y REGION AREQUIPA
2. METODO GEOMETRICO
DATOS DE CENSO
POBLACION
CENSO
TOTAL
1,972 3,008
1,981 2,589
1,993 2,576
2,007 2,796
2,017 3,290
GEOMETRICA
CURVA TASA 1972 1981 1993 2007 2017
CENSOS 3,008 2,589 2,576 2,796 3,290
1 -0.20% 3,604 3,539 3,454 3,357 3,290
2 -0.46% 4,050 3,885 3,676 3,446 3,290
3 -0.80% 4,724 4,394 3,990 3,565 3,290
4 -0.67% 4,457 4,194 3,868 3,520 3,290
5 -0.88% 4,892 4,519 4,065 3,593 3,290
6 -0.33% 3,817 3,706 3,562 3,401 3,290
7 0.17% 3,043 3,091 3,156 3,233 3,290
8 0.35% 2,807 2,898 3,023 3,176 3,290
9 0.48% 2,656 2,772 2,935 3,137 3,290
10 0.90% 2,198 2,382 2,653 3,008 3,290
11 -0.31% 3,783 3,679 3,545 3,394 3,290
12 -0.48% 4,087 3,913 3,693 3,452 3,290
13 -0.61% 4,335 4,102 3,811 3,498 3,290
14 0.32% 2,844 2,928 3,044 3,185 3,290
15 -0.82% 4,764 4,424 4,008 3,572 3,290
16 -0.45% 4,028 3,868 3,665 3,441 3,290
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1972 1981 1993 2007 201
MBA, PROVINCIA
AREQUIPA
: NOV- 2020
TASA (%)
TOTAL
-1.65%
-0.74%
-0.21%
0.53%
-0.04%
0.30%
0.67%
0.59%
1.02%
1.64%
TASA (%)
TOTAL
-0.20%
-0.46%
-0.80%
-0.67%
-0.88%
-0.33%
0.17%
0.35%
0.48%
0.90%
TASA (%)
TOTAL
-0.31%
-0.48%
-0.61%
0.32%
-0.82%
TASA (%)
TOTAL
-0.45%
SUMATORIA DIFERENCIA
14,259 0
17,245 2,986
18,347 4,088
19,963 5,704
19,328 5,069
20,360 6,101
17,775 3,516
15,813 1,554
15,195 936
14,791 532
13,531 728
17,691 3,432
18,436 4,177
19,037 4,778
15,292 1,033
20,059 5,800
18,293 4,034
Pf (2020) 3338
Row 72 Row 73
Row 78 Row 79
Row 84
2007 2017
POBLACION FUTURA - DISTRITO DE CHUQUIBAMBA, PROVINCIA CO
DEPARTAMENTO Y REGION AREQUIPA
3. METODO PARABOLICO:
PoblaciónTotal
Censo
1,981 2,589
1,993 2,576
2,007 2,796
2,017 3,290
Ecuación : Pf = A + B t + C t^2
Censos Tasa ( % )
1981 1993 2007 === > A1 = 3,290.00
B1 = 37.68
C1 = 0.65
1981 1993 2017 === > A2 = 3,290.00
B2 = 50.31
C2 = 0.86
1981 2007 2017 === > A3 = 3,290.00
B3 = 60.91
C3 = 1.15
1993 2007 2017 === > A4 = 3,290.00
B4 = 63.44
C4 = 1.40
Mínimos cuadrados : Pf = A + B t + C t ^ 2
t Pf t Pf t^2 Pf t ^ 2 t^3
0 3,290 0 0 0 0
-10 2,796 (27,960) 100 279,600 (1,000)
-24 2,576 (61,824) 576 1,483,776 (13,824)
-36 2,589 (93,204) 1,296 3,355,344 (46,656)
Determinacion de Coeficientes
1972 (61,480) 47,312 2.064E+8
-61480 2,021,392 (1,369,160) Det. Coef. = 1.146E+10
Det. B = 2.088E+8
Det. C =
Censos Coeficientes
1981 1993 2007 2017 === > A5 =
B5 =
C5 =
PF (2020) 3466
METODO PARABOLICO
3,400
3,200
3,000
2,800
2,600
2,400
2,200
2,000
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
MBA, PROVINCIA CONDESUYOS,
N AREQUIPA
inacion de Coeficientes
Det. B = 164588
Det. C = 2822
Det. B = 521568
Det. C = 8880
Det. B = 570124
Det. C = 10774
Det. B = 213144
Det. C = 4716
t^4
0
10,000
331,776
1,679,616
2,021,392
cientes
3,290.00
55.53
1.01
Diferencia
---
543 11,794 (543)
76 11,327 (76)
85 11,166 85
236 11,487 (236)
14 11,265 (14)
3
1
2
3
4
5
1972 3008
1981 2589
1993 2576
2007 2796
- 2017 3290 3290 3290 3290
A 2018 3306 3313 3306 3347
B 2019 3322 3329 3322 3362
C 2020 3338 3345 3338 3378
D 2021 3354 3361 3354 3394
E 2022 3370 3377 3370 3410
F 2023 3386 3394 3386 3426
G 2024 3402 3410 3402 3442
H 2025 3418 3426 3418 3459
I 2026 3435 3443 3435 3475
0 2027 3451 3459 3451 3491
1 2028 3468 3476 3468 3508
2 2029 3485 3493 3485 3524
3 2030 3501 3509 3501 3541
4 2031 3518 3526 3518 3558
5 2032 3535 3543 3535 3575
6 2033 3552 3560 3552 3592
7 2034 3569 3577 3569 3609
8 2035 3586 3594 3586 3626
9 2036 3603 3612 3603 3643
10 2037 3621 3629 3621 3660
11 2038 3638 3646 3638 3677
12 2039 3656 3664 3656 3695
13 2040 3673 3681 3673 3712
BA, PROVINCIA CONDESUYOS,
AREQUIPA
CURVA
ELEGIDA
3290
3306
3322
3338
3354
3370
3386
3402
3418
3435
3451
3468
3485
3501
3518
3535
3552
3569
3586
3603
3621
3638
3656
3673