Semana Demanda St St[2] Pronóstico Error Error ABS.

1 23 a1(0) 19.45647059
2 28 b2(0) 0.591040724
3 16 b1(0) 49.59954751
4 22 alpha 0.038453485
5 30 So 34.82031104
6 31 So[2] 20.04107457
7 25
8 9
9 20
10 22
11 35
12 32
13 23
14 13
15 15
16 29
17 24
18 38
19 15
20 15 Chart Title
21 24 90
22 44 80
23 22
70
24 40
25 60 60
26 18 50
27 39
28 53 40
29 56 30
30 19
20
31 51
32 41 10
33 30 0
34 52 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69
35 44
36 51
37 59
38 45
39 53
40 37
41 56
42 29
43 54
44 38
45 29
46 51
47 33
48 27
49 65
50 43
51 48 34.82031104 20.04107457
52 44 35.17330207 20.62296146 50.19058824 -6.190588235 6.190588235
53 47 35.62807983 21.19996055 49.70709904 -2.707099044 2.707099044
54 47 36.06536979 21.77158734 50.02706149 -3.027061487 3.027061487
55 36 36.06285609 22.32113643 50.90879798 -14.90879798 14.90879798
56 79 37.71393891 22.91304333 50.33299276 28.667007237 28.66700724
57 62 38.6478226 23.51810043 53.08398051 8.9160194902 8.91601949
58 31 38.35373717 24.08858236 54.35933531 -23.35933531 23.35933531
59 75 39.76291369 24.69131503 53.16743688 21.832563115 21.83256312
60 38 39.69512351 25.26826375 55.41406784 -17.41406784 17.41406784
61 40 39.70684707 25.8234776 54.6767463 -14.6767463 14.6767463
62 60 40.48718953 26.38734843 54.12408049 5.8759195131 5.875919513
63 44 40.62226933 26.93473075 55.12921865 -11.12921865 11.12921865
64 37 40.48298045 27.45570816 54.83614148 -17.83614148 17.83614148
65 34 40.23368726 27.94706599 54.01119676 -20.01119676 20.01119676
66 59 40.95531739 28.44727859 52.99277194 6.0072280644 6.007228064
67 47 41.1877565 28.93719437 53.94433386 -6.944333863 6.944333863
68 53 41.64197843 29.42573759 53.90939544 -0.909395436 0.909395436
69 48 41.88646651 29.90489605 54.3279763 -6.327976296 6.327976296
70 44 41.96773924 30.36875441 54.32877012 -10.32877012 10.32877012
71 39 41.85361933 30.81038749 54.01274547 -15.01274547 15.01274547
72 52 42.24378302 31.25004139 53.32150192 -1.321501916 1.321501916
73 70 43.3111063 31.71383137 53.66027234 16.339727664 16.33972766
74 58 43.87594545 32.18150704 55.35433686 2.6456631367 2.645663137
75 66 44.72669245 32.66391314 56.02007577 9.9799242257 9.979924226
76 54 45.08328345 33.14148121 57.25332767 -3.253327667 3.253327667
77 47 45.15698788 33.60351932 57.48428959 -10.48428959 10.48428959
78 71 46.15074176 34.08600375 57.15472757 13.845272434 13.84527243
79 59 46.64484052 34.56893479 58.67941099 0.320589012 0.320589012
80 73 47.65828825 35.07226605 59.1851069 13.814893097 13.8148931
81 46 47.59452128 35.5537904 60.72828686 -14.72828686 14.72828686
82 44 47.45629941 36.01148335 60.09826023 -16.09826023 16.09826023
83 62 48.01555539 36.47308176 59.34120854 2.6587914617 2.658791462
84 69 48.82248041 36.94795917 60.00187735 8.9981226465 8.998122647
85 30 48.09869044 37.37674365 61.15361838 -31.15361838 31.15361838
86 73 49.05623258 37.8258607 59.23293346 13.767066541 13.76706654
87 72 49.9385004 38.29163391 60.71845139 11.281548609 11.28154861
88 59 50.28694664 38.75289549 62.03322948 -3.033229485 3.033229485
89 59 50.6219939 39.20930369 62.26452224 -3.264522243 3.264522243
11.03
MAD
 Error CUAD. APE APE'

0.0385392

r 0.68771132

Chart Title

33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89

38.3233827 14% 12%

7.328385234 6% 5%
9.163101245 6% 6%
222.2722573 41% 29%
821.7973039 36% 57%
79.49540355 14% 17%
545.6585462 75% 43%
476.6608122 29% 41%
303.2497586 46% 31%
215.406882 37% 27%
34.52643012 10% 11%
123.8595078 25% 20%
318.1279428 48% 33%
400.4479958 59% 37%
36.08678902 10% 11%
48.2237728 15% 13%
0.827000059 2% 2%
40.04328401 13% 12%
106.6834923 23% 19%
225.3825265 38% 28%
1.746367314 3% 2%
266.9867001 23% 30%
6.999533433 5% 5%
99.59888755 15% 18%
10.58414091 6% 6%
109.9203283 22% 18%
191.6915688 20% 24%
0.102777315 1% 1%
190.8512713 19% 23%
216.9224339 32% 24%
259.1539825 37% 27%
7.069172037 4% 4%
80.96621116 13% 15%
970.5479381 104% 51%
189.5321212 19% 23%
127.273339 16% 19%
9.200481108 5% 5%
10.65710547 6% 5%
179.04 24% 19.87%
ECM MAPE MAPE'
Semana Demanda Pronóstico Error Error ABS. Error CUAD. APE APE'
1 23
2 28
3 16
4 22
5 30
6 31
7 25
8 9
9 20
10 22
11 35
12 32
13 23
14 13
15 15
16 29
17 24
18 38
19 15
20 15
21 24
22 44
23 22
24 40
25 60
26 18
27 39
28 53
29 56
30 19
31 51
32 41
33 30
34 52
35 44
36 51
37 59
38 45
39 53
40 37
41 56
42 29
43 54
44 38
45 29
46 51
47 33
48 27
49 65
50 43
51 48
52 44 34.8235294 9.17647059 9.17647059 84.2076125 20.86% 26.35%
53 47 35.2352941 11.7647059 11.7647059 138.408304 25.03% 33.39%
54 47 35.6078431 11.3921569 11.3921569 129.781238 24.24% 31.99%
55 36 36.2156863 -0.21568627 0.21568627 0.04652057 0.60% 0.60%
56 79 36.4901961 42.5098039 42.5098039 1807.08343 53.81% 116.50%
57 62 37.4509804 24.5490196 24.5490196 602.654364 39.60% 65.55%
58 31 38.0588235 -7.05882353 7.05882353 49.8269896 22.77% 18.55%
59 75 38.1764706 36.8235294 36.8235294 1355.97232 49.10% 96.46%
60 38 39.4705882 -1.47058824 1.47058824 2.16262976 3.87% 3.73%
61 40 39.8235294 0.17647059 0.17647059 0.03114187 0.44% 0.44%
62 60 40.1764706 19.8235294 19.8235294 392.972318 33.04% 49.34%
63 44 40.6666667 3.33333333 3.33333333 11.1111111 7.58% 8.20%
64 37 40.9019608 -3.90196078 3.90196078 15.225298 10.55% 9.54%
65 34 41.1764706 -7.17647059 7.17647059 51.5017301 21.11% 17.43%
66 59 41.5882353 17.4117647 17.4117647 303.16955 29.51% 41.87%
67 47 42.4509804 4.54901961 4.54901961 20.6935794 9.68% 10.72%
68 53 42.8039216 10.1960784 10.1960784 103.960015 19.24% 23.82%
69 48 43.372549 4.62745098 4.62745098 21.4133026 9.64% 10.67%
70 44 43.5686275 0.43137255 0.43137255 0.18608228 0.98% 0.99%
71 39 44.1372549 -5.1372549 5.1372549 26.3913879 13.17% 11.64%
72 52 44.6078431 7.39215686 7.39215686 54.6439831 14.22% 16.57%
73 70 45.1568627 24.8431373 24.8431373 617.181469 35.49% 55.02%
74 58 45.6666667 12.3333333 12.3333333 152.111111 21.26% 27.01%
75 66 46.372549 19.627451 19.627451 385.236832 29.74% 42.33%
76 54 46.8823529 7.11764706 7.11764706 50.6608997 13.18% 15.18%
77 47 46.7647059 0.23529412 0.23529412 0.05536332 0.50% 0.50%
78 71 47.3333333 23.6666667 23.6666667 560.111111 33.33% 50.00%
79 59 47.9607843 11.0392157 11.0392157 121.864283 18.71% 23.02%
80 73 48.0784314 24.9215686 24.9215686 621.084583 34.14% 51.84%
81 46 48.4117647 -2.41176471 2.41176471 5.816609 5.24% 4.98%
82 44 48.9411765 -4.94117647 4.94117647 24.4152249 11.23% 10.10%
83 62 48.8039216 13.1960784 13.1960784 174.136486 21.28% 27.04%
84 69 49.2156863 19.7843137 19.7843137 391.41907 28.67% 40.20%
85 30 49.9803922 -19.9803922 19.9803922 399.216071 66.60% 39.98%
86 73 49.5490196 23.4509804 23.4509804 549.948481 32.12% 47.33%
87 72 50.1176471 21.8823529 21.8823529 478.83737 30.39% 43.66%
88 59 50.5294118 8.47058824 8.47058824 71.7508651 14.36% 16.76%
89 59 50.5294118 8.47058824 8.47058824 71.7508651 14.36% 16.76%
12.5128999 259.132621 21.57% 29.11%
MAD ECM MAPE MAPE'

ECM
N = 51 259.132621
N = 40 223.308447
N = 30 196.62131
N = 20 184.220074
N = 10 189.642236
Semana Demanda Pronóstico Error Error ABS. Error CUAD. APE
1 23
2 28
3 16
4 22
5 30
6 31
7 25
8 9
9 20
10 22
11 35
12 32
13 23
14 13
15 15
16 29
17 24
18 38
19 15
20 15
21 24
22 44
23 22
24 40
25 60
26 18
27 39
28 53
29 56
30 19
31 51
32 41
33 30
34 52
35 44
36 51
37 59
38 45
39 53
40 37
41 56
42 29
43 54
44 38
45 29
46 51
47 33
48 27
49 65
50 43
51 48
52 44 37.804878 6.19512195 6.19512195 38.379536 14.08%
53 47 38.0243902 8.97560976 8.97560976 80.5615705 19.10%
54 47 38.3902439 8.6097561 8.6097561 74.1279001 18.32%
55 36 38.9756098 -2.97560976 2.97560976 8.85425342 8.27%
56 79 39.5365854 39.4634146 39.4634146 1557.36109 49.95%
57 62 41.097561 20.902439 20.902439 436.911957 33.71%
58 31 41.902439 -10.902439 10.902439 118.863177 35.17%
59 75 42.0731707 32.9268293 32.9268293 1084.17609 43.90%
60 38 42.9756098 -4.97560976 4.97560976 24.7566924 13.09%
61 40 43.5365854 -3.53658537 3.53658537 12.507436 8.84%
62 60 44.1463415 15.8536585 15.8536585 251.338489 26.42%
63 44 45.0243902 -1.02439024 1.02439024 1.04937537 2.33%
64 37 45.0243902 -8.02439024 8.02439024 64.3908388 21.69%
65 34 45.3902439 -11.3902439 11.3902439 129.737656 33.50%
66 59 45.2439024 13.7560976 13.7560976 189.23022 23.32%
67 47 45.2195122 1.7804878 1.7804878 3.17013682 3.79%
68 53 45.9268293 7.07317073 7.07317073 50.0297442 13.35%
69 48 46.2682927 1.73170732 1.73170732 2.99881023 3.61%
70 44 46.1463415 -2.14634146 2.14634146 4.60678168 4.88%
71 39 45.8536585 -6.85365854 6.85365854 46.9726353 17.57%
72 52 46.3414634 5.65853659 5.65853659 32.0190363 10.88%
73 70 46.3658537 23.6341463 23.6341463 558.572873 33.76%
74 58 47.0731707 10.9268293 10.9268293 119.395598 18.84%
75 66 47.7560976 18.2439024 18.2439024 332.839976 27.64%
76 54 48.097561 5.90243902 5.90243902 34.8387864 10.93%
77 47 48.3414634 -1.34146341 1.34146341 1.79952409 2.85%
78 71 48.2439024 22.7560976 22.7560976 517.839976 32.05%
79 59 48.5365854 10.4634146 10.4634146 109.483046 17.73%
80 73 48.8780488 24.1219512 24.1219512 581.868531 33.04%
81 46 49.3658537 -3.36585366 3.36585366 11.3289709 7.32%
82 44 49.5853659 -5.58536585 5.58536585 31.1963117 12.69%
83 62 49.2926829 12.7073171 12.7073171 161.475907 20.50%
84 69 50.097561 18.902439 18.902439 357.302201 27.39%
85 30 50.4634146 -20.4634146 20.4634146 418.751338 68.21%
86 73 50.2682927 22.7317073 22.7317073 516.730518 31.14%
87 72 51.3414634 20.6585366 20.6585366 426.775134 28.69%
88 59 51.8536585 7.14634146 7.14634146 51.0701963 12.11%
89 59 52.4878049 6.51219512 6.51219512 42.4086853 11.04%
11.8478819 223.308447 21.10%
MAD ECM MAPE
APE' Semana Demanda Pronóstico Error Error ABS. Error CUAD.
1 23
2 28
3 16
4 22
5 30
6 31
7 25
8 9
9 20
10 22
11 35
12 32
13 23
14 13
15 15
16 29
17 24
18 38
19 15
20 15
21 24
22 44
23 22
24 40
25 60
26 18
27 39
28 53
29 56
30 19
31 51
32 41
33 30
34 52
35 44
36 51
37 59
38 45
39 53
40 37
41 56
42 29
43 54
44 38
45 29
46 51
47 33
48 27
 49 65
50 43
51 48
16.39% 52 44 42.2903226 1.70967742 1.70967742 2.92299688
23.60% 53 47 42.9354839 4.06451613 4.06451613 16.5202914
22.43% 54 47 43.0322581 3.96774194 3.96774194 15.7429761
7.63% 55 36 43.8387097 -7.83870968 7.83870968 61.4453694
99.81% 56 79 43.7096774 35.2903226 35.2903226 1245.40687
50.86% 57 62 44.3225806 17.6774194 17.6774194 312.491155
26.02% 58 31 45.7419355 -14.7419355 14.7419355 217.324662
78.26% 59 75 45.483871 29.516129 29.516129 871.201873
11.58% 60 38 46.1935484 -8.19354839 8.19354839 67.1342352
8.12% 61 40 45.6129032 -5.61290323 5.61290323 31.5046826
35.91% 62 60 46.2903226 13.7096774 13.7096774 187.955255
2.28% 63 44 46.5806452 -2.58064516 2.58064516 6.65972945
17.82% 64 37 46.6774194 -9.67741935 9.67741935 93.6524454
25.09% 65 34 46.9032258 -12.9032258 12.9032258 166.493236
30.40% 66 59 46.3225806 12.6774194 12.6774194 160.716961
3.94% 67 47 46.8064516 0.19354839 0.19354839 0.03746098
15.40% 68 53 46.6774194 6.32258065 6.32258065 39.975026
3.74% 69 48 46.483871 1.51612903 1.51612903 2.29864724
4.65% 70 44 46.5806452 -2.58064516 2.58064516 6.65972945
14.95% 71 39 46.2903226 -7.29032258 7.29032258 53.1488033
12.21% 72 52 46.3548387 5.64516129 5.64516129 31.867846
50.97% 73 70 46.2258065 23.7741935 23.7741935 565.212279
23.21% 74 58 47.5483871 10.4516129 10.4516129 109.236212
38.20% 75 66 47.6774194 18.3225806 18.3225806 335.716961
12.27% 76 54 48.5806452 5.41935484 5.41935484 29.3694069
2.77% 77 47 49.3870968 -2.38709677 2.38709677 5.69823101
47.17% 78 71 49.2580645 21.7419355 21.7419355 472.711759
21.56% 79 59 50.483871 8.51612903 8.51612903 72.5244537
49.35% 80 73 51.516129 21.483871 21.483871 461.556712
6.82% 81 46 51.7741935 -5.77419355 5.77419355 33.3413111
11.26% 82 44 51.8709677 -7.87096774 7.87096774 61.9521332
25.78% 83 62 51.7419355 10.2580645 10.2580645 105.227888
37.73% 84 69 52.3225806 16.6774194 16.6774194 278.136316
40.55% 85 30 53.0322581 -23.0322581 23.0322581 530.484912
45.22% 86 73 52.483871 20.516129 20.516129 420.91155
40.24% 87 72 53.6774194 18.3225806 18.3225806 335.716961
13.78% 88 59 53.4516129 5.5483871 5.5483871 30.7845994
12.41% 89 59 53.3548387 5.64516129 5.64516129 31.867846
26.06% 11.3013582 196.62131
MAPE' MAD ECM
APE APE' Semana Demanda Pronóstico Error Error ABS.
1 23
2 28
3 16
4 22
5 30
6 31
7 25
8 9
9 20
10 22
11 35
12 32
13 23
14 13
15 15
16 29
17 24
18 38
19 15
20 15
21 24
22 44
23 22
24 40
25 60
26 18
27 39
28 53
29 56
30 19
31 51
32 41
33 30
34 52
35 44
36 51
37 59
38 45
39 53
40 37
41 56
42 29
43 54
44 38
45 29
46 51
47 33
48 27
 49 65
50 43
51 48
3.89% 4.04% 52 44 44.5714286 -0.57142857 0.57142857
8.65% 9.47% 53 47 44.2380952 2.76190476 2.76190476
8.44% 9.22% 54 47 44.5238095 2.47619048 2.47619048
21.77% 17.88% 55 36 45.3333333 -9.33333333 9.33333333
44.67% 80.74% 56 79 44.5714286 34.4285714 34.4285714
28.51% 39.88% 57 62 46.2380952 15.7619048 15.7619048
47.55% 32.23% 58 31 46.7619048 -15.7619048 15.7619048
39.35% 64.89% 59 75 45.4285714 29.5714286 29.5714286
21.56% 17.74% 60 38 46.8571429 -8.85714286 8.85714286
14.03% 12.31% 61 40 46.1428571 -6.14285714 6.14285714
22.85% 29.62% 62 60 46.2857143 13.7142857 13.7142857
5.87% 5.54% 63 44 46.4761905 -2.47619048 2.47619048
26.16% 20.73% 64 37 47.1904762 -10.1904762 10.1904762
37.95% 27.51% 65 34 46.3809524 -12.3809524 12.3809524
21.49% 27.37% 66 59 46.1904762 12.8095238 12.8095238
0.41% 0.41% 67 47 47.6190476 -0.61904762 0.61904762
11.93% 13.55% 68 53 47.4285714 5.57142857 5.57142857
3.16% 3.26% 69 48 48.3809524 -0.38095238 0.38095238
5.87% 5.54% 70 44 49.3809524 -5.38095238 5.38095238
18.69% 15.75% 71 39 48.3809524 -9.38095238 9.38095238
10.86% 12.18% 72 52 48.1904762 3.80952381 3.80952381
33.96% 51.43% 73 70 48.3809524 21.6190476 21.6190476
18.02% 21.98% 74 58 49.6190476 8.38095238 8.38095238
27.76% 38.43% 75 66 50.1428571 15.8571429 15.8571429
10.04% 11.16% 76 54 51.047619 2.95238095 2.95238095
5.08% 4.83% 77 47 51.9047619 -4.9047619 4.9047619
30.62% 44.14% 78 71 50.3809524 20.6190476 20.6190476
14.43% 16.87% 79 59 50.8095238 8.19047619 8.19047619
29.43% 41.70% 80 73 52.1428571 20.8571429 20.8571429
12.55% 11.15% 81 46 52.047619 -6.04761905 6.04761905
17.89% 15.17% 82 44 52.4285714 -8.42857143 8.42857143
16.55% 19.83% 83 62 52.6190476 9.38095238 9.38095238
24.17% 31.87% 84 69 52.7142857 16.2857143 16.2857143
76.77% 43.43% 85 30 53.9047619 -23.9047619 23.9047619
28.10% 39.09% 86 73 53.5714286 19.4285714 19.4285714
25.45% 34.13% 87 72 55.4285714 16.5714286 16.5714286
9.40% 10.38% 88 59 56.047619 2.95238095 2.95238095
9.57% 10.58% 89 59 56.6190476 2.38095238 2.38095238
20.88% 23.58% 10.8195489
MAPE MAPE' MAD
Error CUAD. APE APE' Semana Demanda Pronóstico Error
1 23
2 28
3 16
4 22
5 30
6 31
7 25
8 9
9 20
10 22
11 35
12 32
13 23
14 13
15 15
16 29
17 24
18 38
19 15
20 15
21 24
22 44
23 22
24 40
25 60
26 18
27 39
28 53
29 56
30 19
31 51
32 41
33 30
34 52
35 44
36 51
37 59
38 45
39 53
40 37
41 56
42 29
43 54
44 38
45 29
46 51
47 33
48 27
 49 65
50 43
51 48
0.32653061 1.30% 1.28% 52 44 43 1
7.62811791 5.88% 6.24% 53 47 41.9090909 5.09090909
6.13151927 5.27% 5.56% 54 47 43.5454545 3.45454545
87.1111111 25.93% 20.59% 55 36 42.9090909 -6.90909091
1185.32653 43.58% 77.24% 56 79 42.7272727 36.2727273
248.437642 25.42% 34.09% 57 62 47.2727273 14.7272727
248.437642 50.84% 33.71% 58 31 48.2727273 -17.2727273
874.469388 39.43% 65.09% 59 75 48.0909091 26.9090909
78.4489796 23.31% 18.90% 60 38 52.4545455 -14.4545455
37.7346939 15.36% 13.31% 61 40 50 -10
188.081633 22.86% 29.63% 62 60 49.7272727 10.2727273
6.13151927 5.63% 5.33% 63 44 50.8181818 -6.81818182
103.845805 27.54% 21.59% 64 37 50.8181818 -13.8181818
153.287982 36.41% 26.69% 65 34 49.9090909 -15.9090909
164.0839 21.71% 27.73% 66 59 48.7272727 10.2727273
0.38321995 1.32% 1.30% 67 47 50.8181818 -3.81818182
31.0408163 10.51% 11.75% 68 53 47.9090909 5.09090909
0.14512472 0.79% 0.79% 69 48 47.0909091 0.90909091
28.9546485 12.23% 10.90% 70 44 48.6363636 -4.63636364
88.0022676 24.05% 19.39% 71 39 45.8181818 -6.81818182
14.5124717 7.33% 7.91% 72 52 45.9090909 6.09090909
467.38322 30.88% 44.69% 73 70 47 23
70.2403628 14.45% 16.89% 74 58 47.9090909 10.0909091
251.44898 24.03% 31.62% 75 66 49.1818182 16.8181818
8.71655329 5.47% 5.78% 76 54 51.8181818 2.18181818
24.0566893 10.44% 9.45% 77 47 53.6363636 -6.63636364
425.145125 29.04% 40.93% 78 71 52.5454545 18.4545455
67.0839002 13.88% 16.12% 79 59 54.7272727 4.27272727
435.020408 28.57% 40.00% 80 73 55.2727273 17.7272727
36.5736961 13.15% 11.62% 81 46 57.5454545 -11.5454545
71.0408163 19.16% 16.08% 82 44 57.7272727 -13.7272727
88.0022676 15.13% 17.83% 83 62 58.1818182 3.81818182
265.22449 23.60% 30.89% 84 69 59.0909091 9.90909091
571.437642 79.68% 44.35% 85 30 59 -29
377.469388 26.61% 36.27% 86 73 56.4545455 16.5454545
274.612245 23.02% 29.90% 87 72 57.0909091 14.9090909
8.71655329 5.00% 5.27% 88 59 58.7272727 0.27272727
5.66893424 4.04% 4.21% 89 59 59.8181818 -0.81818182
184.220074 20.34% 22.13%
ECM MAPE MAPE'
Error ABS. Error CUAD. APE APE'
 1 1 2.27% 2.33%
5.09090909 25.9173554 10.83% 12.15%
3.45454545 11.9338843 7.35% 7.93%
6.90909091 47.7355372 19.19% 16.10%
36.2727273 1315.71074 45.91% 84.89%
14.7272727 216.892562 23.75% 31.15%
17.2727273 298.347107 55.72% 35.78%
26.9090909 724.099174 35.88% 55.95%
14.4545455 208.933884 38.04% 27.56%
10 100 25.00% 20.00%
10.2727273 105.528926 17.12% 20.66%
6.81818182 46.4876033 15.50% 13.42%
13.8181818 190.942149 37.35% 27.19%
15.9090909 253.099174 46.79% 31.88%
10.2727273 105.528926 17.41% 21.08%
3.81818182 14.5785124 8.12% 7.51%
5.09090909 25.9173554 9.61% 10.63%
0.90909091 0.82644628 1.89% 1.93%
4.63636364 21.4958678 10.54% 9.53%
6.81818182 46.4876033 17.48% 14.88%
6.09090909 37.0991736 11.71% 13.27%
23 529 32.86% 48.94%
10.0909091 101.826446 17.40% 21.06%
16.8181818 282.85124 25.48% 34.20%
2.18181818 4.76033058 4.04% 4.21%
6.63636364 44.0413223 14.12% 12.37%
18.4545455 340.570248 25.99% 35.12%
4.27272727 18.2561983 7.24% 7.81%
17.7272727 314.256198 24.28% 32.07%
11.5454545 133.297521 25.10% 20.06%
13.7272727 188.438017 31.20% 23.78%
3.81818182 14.5785124 6.16% 6.56%
9.90909091 98.1900826 14.36% 16.77%
29 841 96.67% 49.15%
16.5454545 273.752066 22.67% 29.31%
14.9090909 222.280992 20.71% 26.11%
0.27272727 0.07438017 0.46% 0.46%
0.81818182 0.66942149 1.39% 1.37%
11.0598086 189.642236 21.78% 21.98%
MAD ECM MAPE MAPE'
Semana Demanda Pronóstico Error Error ABS. Error CUAD. APE APE'
1 23
2 28
3 16
4 22
5 30
6 31
7 25
8 9
9 20
10 22
11 35
12 32
13 23
14 13
15 15
16 29
17 24
18 38
19 15
20 15
21 24
22 44
23 22
24 40
25 60
26 18
27 39
28 53
29 56
30 19
31 51
32 41
33 30
34 52
35 44
36 51
37 59
38 45
39 53
40 37
41 56
42 29
43 54
44 38
45 29 ALPHA 0.174808771
46 51
47 33 S_t= α∗X_(t-1)+(1-α)∗S_(t-1)
48 27
49 65
50 43
51 48
52 44 34.8235294 9.17647059 9.176470588 84.2076125 20.86% 26.35%
53 47 36.427657 10.572343 10.57234304 111.774437 22.49% 29.02%
54 47 38.2757953 8.72420475 8.724204749 76.1117485 18.56% 22.79%
55 36 39.8008628 -3.80086276 3.800862762 14.4465577 10.56% 9.55%
56 79 39.1364386 39.8635614 39.86356139 1589.10353 50.46% 101.86%
57 62 46.1049388 15.8950612 15.89506121 252.652971 25.64% 34.48%
58 31 48.8835349 -17.8835349 17.8835349 319.820821 57.69% 36.58%
59 75 45.7573361 29.2426639 29.24266385 855.133389 38.99% 63.91%
60 38 50.8692103 -12.8692103 12.86921028 165.616573 33.87% 25.30%
61 40 48.6195594 -8.61955944 8.619559443 74.296805 21.55% 17.73%
62 60 47.1127849 12.8872151 12.88721515 166.080314 21.48% 27.35%
63 44 49.3655831 -5.36558309 5.365583092 28.7894819 12.19% 10.87%
64 37 48.4276321 -11.4276321 11.42763211 130.590776 30.89% 23.60%
65 34 46.4299818 -12.4299818 12.42998178 154.504447 36.56% 26.77%
66 59 44.2571119 14.7428881 14.74288806 217.352748 24.99% 33.31%
67 47 46.8342981 0.16570191 0.165701915 0.02745712 0.35% 0.35%
68 53 46.8632642 6.13673577 6.136735767 37.6595259 11.58% 13.09%
69 48 47.9360195 0.06398053 0.063980529 0.00409351 0.13% 0.13%
70 44 47.9472038 -3.94720383 3.947203829 15.5804181 8.97% 8.23%
71 39 47.257198 -8.25719798 8.257197978 68.1813185 21.17% 17.47%
72 52 45.8137673 6.18623265 6.186232652 38.2694744 11.90% 13.50%
73 70 46.8951751 23.1048249 23.10482493 533.832935 33.01% 49.27%
74 58 50.9341011 7.06589888 7.065898876 49.9269269 12.18% 13.87%
75 66 52.1692822 13.8307178 13.83071778 191.288754 20.96% 26.51%
76 54 54.587013 -0.587013 0.587013 0.34458426 1.09% 1.08%
77 47 54.484398 -7.48439798 7.484397979 56.0162131 15.92% 13.74%
78 71 53.1760596 17.8239404 17.82394043 317.692853 25.10% 33.52%
79 59 56.2918407 2.70815931 2.708159312 7.33412686 4.59% 4.81%
80 73 56.7652507 16.2347493 16.23474931 263.567085 22.24% 28.60%
81 46 59.6032273 -13.6032273 13.60322726 185.047792 29.57% 22.82%
82 44 57.2252638 -13.2252638 13.22526382 174.907603 30.06% 23.11%
83 62 54.9133717 7.08662829 7.086628291 50.2203005 11.43% 12.91%
84 69 56.1521765 12.8478235 12.84782351 165.066569 18.62% 22.88%
85 30 58.3980887 -28.3980887 28.39808873 806.451443 94.66% 48.63%
86 73 53.4338537 19.5661463 19.56614626 382.83408 26.80% 36.62%
87 72 56.8541877 15.1458123 15.14581228 229.39563 21.04% 26.64%
88 59 59.5018086 -0.50180855 0.501808551 0.25181182 0.85% 0.84%
89 59 59.414088 -0.41408801 0.414088015 0.17146888 0.70% 0.70%
11.52332667 205.646176 22.4% 23.9%
MAD ECM MAPE MAPE'
Semana Demanda Pronóstico Error Error ABS. Error CUAD. APE APE'
1 23
2 28
3 16
4 22
5 30
6 31
7 25
8 9
9 20
10 22
11 35
12 32
13 23
14 13
15 15
16 29
17 24
18 38
19 15
20 15
21 24
22 44
23 22
24 40
25 60
26 18
27 39
28 53
29 56
30 19
31 51
32 41
33 30
34 52
35 44
36 51
37 59
38 45
39 53
40 37
41 56
42 29
43 54
44 38
45 29
46 51
47 33
48 27
49 65
50 43
51 48
52 44 43.1951821 0.80481793 0.80481793 0.6477319 1.83% 1.86%
53 47 43.4576171 3.54238292 3.54238292 12.5484768 7.54% 8.15%
54 47 44.2755554 2.72444458 2.72444458 7.42259827 5.80% 6.15%
55 36 45.3476647 -9.34766469 9.34766469 87.3788352 25.97% 20.61%
56 79 44.6802866 34.3197134 34.3197134 1177.84272 43.44% 76.81%
57 62 48.4756715 13.5243285 13.5243285 182.907461 21.81% 27.90%
58 31 50.0015917 -19.0015917 19.0015917 361.060486 61.30% 38.00%
59 75 48.1177815 26.8822185 26.8822185 722.653672 35.84% 55.87%
60 38 51.046807 -13.046807 13.046807 170.219173 34.33% 25.56%
61 40 49.8130543 -9.8130543 9.8130543 96.2960346 24.53% 19.70%
62 60 49.1741932 10.8258068 10.8258068 117.198093 18.04% 22.02%
63 44 50.3236641 -6.32366407 6.32366407 39.9887273 14.37% 12.57%
64 37 50.1514166 -13.1514166 13.1514166 172.959758 35.54% 26.22%
65 34 48.9407103 -14.9407103 14.9407103 223.224824 43.94% 30.53%
66 59 47.8134534 11.1865466 11.1865466 125.138826 18.96% 23.40%
67 47 49.4658932 -2.46589319 2.46589319 6.08062922 5.25% 4.99%
68 53 49.4004104 3.59958963 3.59958963 12.9570455 6.79% 7.29%
69 48 50.2149827 -2.21498272 2.21498272 4.90614843 4.61% 4.41%
70 44 50.5523088 -6.55230878 6.55230878 42.9327503 14.89% 12.96%
71 39 49.8836319 -10.8836319 10.8836319 118.453444 27.91% 21.82%
72 52 49.1085818 2.89141818 2.89141818 8.3602991 5.56% 5.89%
73 70 49.6454666 20.3545334 20.3545334 414.30703 29.08% 41.00%
74 58 51.9691619 6.03083813 6.03083813 36.3710086 10.40% 11.60%
75 66 52.777405 13.222595 13.222595 174.837017 20.03% 25.05%
76 54 54.2959866 -0.29598657 0.29598657 0.08760805 0.55% 0.55%
77 47 54.6244832 -7.62448316 7.62448316 58.1327434 16.22% 13.96%
78 71 53.5705798 17.4294202 17.4294202 303.784687 24.55% 32.54%
79 59 55.2602585 3.7397415 3.7397415 13.9856665 6.34% 6.77%
80 73 56.0310716 16.9689284 16.9689284 287.944532 23.25% 30.28%
81 46 57.4597111 -11.4597111 11.4597111 131.324978 24.91% 19.94%
82 44 56.5840318 -12.5840318 12.5840318 158.357857 28.60% 22.24%
83 62 55.6245426 6.37545738 6.37545738 40.6464568 10.28% 11.46%
84 69 56.2894465 12.7105535 12.7105535 161.55817 18.42% 22.58%
85 30 57.818823 -27.818823 27.818823 773.886913 92.73% 48.11%
86 73 55.4127386 17.5872614 17.5872614 309.311764 24.09% 31.74%
87 72 57.6670702 14.3329298 14.3329298 205.432877 19.91% 24.85%
88 59 59.194219 -0.19421903 0.19421903 0.03772103 0.33% 0.33%
89 59 59.4325526 -0.43255263 0.43255263 0.18710177 0.73% 0.73%
10.7159226 177.930839 21.28% 20.96%
MAD ECM MAPE MAPE'