ANALISIS ESTADISTICO DE MAXIMAS AVENIDAS

ESTACION: TEODULO PEÑA

ESTACION
AÑO TEODULO
PEÑA (Qmax)

1,950 1972 104.1

1973 91.2
1974 16.2
1975 29.5
1976 40.6
1977 47.0
1978 22.4
1979 39.7
1980 7.6
1981 53.9
1982 92.4
1983 154.6
1984 42.0
1985 16.6
1986 19.5
1987 33.0
1988 8.8
1989 225.0
1990 13.0
1991 27.0
1992 470.0

21

Tiempo de Retorno (TR) = 200.00

Medicion de Caudales (Año) = 1,994
CAUDAL
Año (PX - PP)2 (PX - PP)3 Ln (PX) ( Ln (PX)-PY)2
MAXIMO (PX)
1 1972 104.10 906 27,258 4.65 0.88
1973 91.20 296 5,084 4.51 0.65
1974 16.20 3,341 -193,148 2.79 0.85
1975 29.50 1,981 -88,149 3.38 0.10
1976 40.60 1,116 -37,276 3.70 0.00
1977 47.00 729 -19,693 3.85 0.02
1978 22.40 2,663 -137,426 3.11 0.36
1979 39.70 1,177 -40,370 3.68 0.00
1980 7.60 4,410 -292,818 2.03 2.82
1981 53.90 404 -8,126 3.99 0.08
1982 92.40 338 6,225 4.53 0.67
1983 154.60 6,496 523,514 5.04 1.78
1984 42.00 1,024 -32,783 3.74 0.00
 1985 16.60 3,295 -189,166 2.81 0.81
1986 19.50 2,971 -161,921 2.97 0.54
1987 33.00 1,681 -68,945 3.50 0.04
1988 8.80 4,252 -277,229 2.17 2.35
1989 225.00 22,800 3,442,625 5.42 2.92
1990 13.00 3,722 -227,034 2.56 1.31
1991 27.00 2,209 -103,855 3.30 0.17
1992 470.00 156,812 62,096,896 6.15 5.98
21 Suma = 1,554.10 222,622 64,223,662 77.873 22.327

PARAMETROS ESTADISTICOS
Media (QX) Desv. Estandar Coef. Asimetria Coef. Variacion
PX SX CS Cv
74.005 105.504 3.022 1.426
PY SY CSY CvY
3.708 1.057 0.552 0.285

DISTRIBUCION LOGNORMAL DE DOS PARAMETROS

Parametros Estadisticos
LOGNORMAL
Campo Normal
N = 21.00 200
f(x) = 161.124215343364 ln(x) − 197.427639850096
PX = 74.00 190
R² = 0.942172358491661
180
SX = 105.50
Caudal (m3/s)

170
CS = 3.02
160
Cv = 1.43 150
Campo Transformado 140
PY = 3.71 130

SY = 1.06 120

CSY = 0.55 110

100
CvY = 0.28
90
K = F´(1-1/TR) 80
K = F´ 1.00 70
K = 2.58 60
PESP = Exp (PY + K SY) 50

PESP = 620.05 40
1 10 100 1000
Iintervalo de Confianza Periodo de Retorno (Años)

281.97 1,363.52

Intervalo de confianza
TR (Años) Probabilidad F´(1-1/TR) K=Z QESP(mm)
(-)
2 0.5000 0.5000 0.0000 40.78 18.55
5 0.2000 0.8000 0.8416 99.23 45.13
10 0.1000 0.9000 1.2816 157.95 71.83
25 0.0400 0.9600 1.7507 259.30 117.91
50 0.0200 0.9800 2.0537 357.16 162.42
75 0.0133 0.9867 2.2164 424.11 192.86
 100 0.0100 0.9900 2.3263 476.38 216.63
150 0.0067 0.9933 2.4747 557.24 253.40
200 0.0050 0.9950 2.5758 620.05 281.97
300 0.0033 0.9967 2.7131 716.80 325.96
400 0.0025 0.9975 2.8070 791.63 359.99
500 0.0020 0.9980 2.8782 853.41 388.09
1000 0.0010 0.9990 3.0902 1,067.76 485.56

COMPARACION DE MAXIMAS CAUDALES

TR (Años) LOG NORMAL GUMBEL LOG-PEARSON-III

qesp(m3/s) Qesp(m3/s) qesp(m3/s)

2 40.78 56.67 37.03

5 99.23 149.91 95.21
10 157.95 211.64 165.28
25 259.30 289.64 311.64
50 357.16 347.50 481.87
75 424.11 381.13 614.11
100 476.38 404.94 726.08
150 557.24 438.43 914.29
200 620.05 462.16 1,072.94
300 716.80 495.59 1,338.44
400 791.63 519.28 1,561.35
500 853.41 537.66 1,756.93
1000 1,067.76 594.72 2,516.31

LOG NORMAL
qesp(m3/s)
GUMBEL ANALISIS DE FRECUENCIAS DE LOS CAUDALES MAXIMOS
Qesp(m3/s)
LOG-PEARSON-III
2,625 qesp(m3/s)
2,425
2,225
2,025
1,825
1,625
1,425
1,225
1,025
825
625
425
225
25
0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325 350 375 400 425

LOG NORMAL GUMBEL LOG-PEARSON-III

qesp(m3/s) Qesp(m3/s) qesp(m3/s)
( Ln (PX)-PY)3

0.82
0.52
-0.79
-0.03
0.00
0.00
-0.22
0.00
-4.74
0.02
0.55
2.37
0.00
 -0.73
-0.40
-0.01
-3.61
4.98
-1.49
-0.07
14.61
11.786

21.00

S DISTRIBUCION DE GUMBEL O EXTREMA TIPO I

Parametros Estadisticos
Campo Normal METODO DE GUMBEL
220
N = 21.00 f(x) = 85.3305486048015 ln(x) + 9.93006016316758
197.427639850096
QX = 74.00 R² = 0.999115942421719
200
SX = 105.50
Caudal (m3/s)

CS = 3.02 180

Cv = 1.43
160
Campo Transformado
QY = 3.71
140
SY = 1.06
CSY = 0.55 120
CvY = 0.28
K1 = TR/(TR -1) 100

K1 = 1.0050
80
Ln(Ln(K1)) = -5.30
KT = 3.68 60
QESP = QX + KT SX
100 1000
QESP = 462.16 40

Iintervalo de Confianza 1 10
Periodo de Retorno (Años)
100 1000

292.46 631.87

Intervalo de confianza Intervalo de confianza

TR (Años) Probabilidad Ln Ln TR/(TR -1) KT QESP(mm)
(+) (-)
89.68 2 0.5000 -0.3665 -0.1643 56.67 21.91
218.22 5 0.2000 -1.4999 0.7195 149.91 91.37
347.34 10 0.1000 -2.2504 1.3046 211.64 132.58
570.20 25 0.0400 -3.1985 2.0438 289.64 183.04
785.41 50 0.0200 -3.9019 2.5923 347.50 219.94
932.64 75 0.0133 -4.3108 2.9111 381.13 241.28
 1,047.56 100 0.0100 -4.6001 3.1367 404.94 256.34
1,225.39 150 0.0067 -5.0073 3.4541 438.43 277.49
1,363.52 200 0.0050 -5.2958 3.6791 462.16 292.46
1,576.26 300 0.0033 -5.7021 3.9959 495.59 313.51
1,740.81 400 0.0025 -5.9902 4.2205 519.28 328.42
1,876.68 500 0.0020 -6.2136 4.3947 537.66 339.97
2,348.03 1000 0.0010 -6.9073 4.9355 594.72 375.80

DISTRIBUCION A
UTILIZAR

TR (Años) GUMBEL
Qesp(m3/s)

2 56.67
5 149.91
10 211.64
25 289.64
50 347.50
75 381.13
100 404.94
150 438.43
200 462.16
300 495.59
400 519.28
500 537.66
1000 594.72

DALES MAXIMOS

00 325 350 375 400 425 450 475 500

LOG-PEARSON-III
qesp(m3/s)
I DISTRIBUCION LOG - PEARSON III O GAMA DE TRES PARAMETROS

Parametros Estadisticos
Campo Normal LOG-PEARSON III

006016316758 N = 21.00 200

CS = 3.02 f(x) = 359.42319359182 ln(x) − 650.694987046009

R² = 0.834575877343628
Cv = 1.43 180

Campo Transformado
Caudal (m3/s)

QY = 3.71 160

SY = 1.06
CSY = 0.55 140

K = F´(1-1/TR)
K = F´ 0.9950 120

Z = 2.58
100
Z -1= 5.63
2

Z3-6Z= 1.64
CS/6 = 0.09 80

KT = 3.095
QESP = Exp(QY + KT SY) 60

QESP = 1,072.94
40
100 1000 Iintervalo de Confianza
1 10 100 1000
430.82 2,672.12 Pariodo de Retorno (Años)

Factor de Frecuencia
KT = Z + (Z2-1) (CS/ 6) + (1/3) (Z3 - 6Z) (CS/ 6)2 - (Z2-1) (CS/ 6)3 + Z (CS/ 6)4+ (1/3) (CS/ 6)5

Intervalo de confianza Intervalo de confianza

TR (Años) Probabilidad Z KT QESP(mm)
(+) (-)
91.43 2 0.5000 0.0000 -0.0912 37.03 25.32
208.45 5 0.2000 0.8416 0.8025 95.21 61.56
290.70 10 0.1000 1.2816 1.3245 165.28 98.30
396.24 25 0.0400 1.7507 1.9247 311.64 164.25
475.06 50 0.0200 2.0537 2.3372 481.87 231.62
520.99 75 0.0133 2.2164 2.5667 614.11 279.86
553.53 100 0.0100 2.3263 2.7252 726.08 318.72
599.36 150 0.0067 2.4747 2.9434 914.29 380.87
631.87 200 0.0050 2.5758 3.0948 1,072.94 430.82
677.66 300 0.0033 2.7131 3.3041 1,338.44 510.54
710.15 400 0.0025 2.8070 3.4499 1,561.35 574.47
735.35 500 0.0020 2.8782 3.5616 1,756.93 628.72
813.64 1000 0.0010 3.0902 3.9016 2,516.31 826.88
ARAMETROS

) − 650.694987046009

100 1000

4
+ (1/3) (CS/ 6)5

Intervalo de confianza
(+)
54.16
147.26
277.90
591.32
1,002.48
1,347.55
1,654.13
2,194.82
2,672.12
3,508.89
4,243.60
4,909.66
7,657.46