Cambio Climático

Integrantes:
Evelin Guzmán
Alfonso Pinto
Jesús David Villalba
Sebastián Ballestas
Jairo Giraldo

Resumen
 Impuestos al uso del carbón de $15/tce el cual iniciaría en 2025 y además se
propone reducir en un 10% el uso del carbón a partir del 2030 dejando de construir
nuevas plantas desde 2040 y empezando a eliminarlas a partir en 5%.
 Tasas de impuestos para el petróleo de $10/barril y se reduce su utilización en un
15% desde 2030. Para el gas natural se proponen subsidios de $0,5/Mcf reduciendo
su utilización en un 5% desde 2040 y para la nuclear se subsidia $0,02/kWh.
 Se subsidian las energías renovables y la bioenergía lo más pronto posible hasta el
momento en que alcanza el balance con el precio esperado de la energía.
 Se aumenta el precio del carbón hasta $60/ ton CO2 y se estipula un estándar de
emisiones en 75 ton CO2/TJ.
  Se incrementa la eficiencia energética y electrificación del transporte en un 2,5%
anual y de edificios e industria en un 3% debido a que son dos sectores que
demandan más energía que el anterior.
 Se mantienen las políticas de población y crecimiento económico.
 Se reduce la deforestación en un 3% anual y se dispone de un 30% de tierra para la
forestación asegurando la tierra en 10 años y plantando en 20 años.
 Se reduce moderadamente la emisión de metano y otros gases en un 40% y se
propone eliminar el carbono por medio de tecnologías en un 39%.
 Se planean estudios de nuevas tecnologías para comercializar en 10 años con un
costo inicial relativo de carbón de 1.
Acciones

Coal
Coal (tax/subsidy) = 15 $/tce
Coal tax/subsidy start year = 2025
% Reduction in coal utilization = 10 percent
% Reduction in coal utilization start year = 2030
Stop building new coal infrastructure = Yes
Year to stop building new coal infrastructure = 2040
Coal plant accelerated retirement = 5 %
Coal carbon capture & storage (CCS) (tax/subsidy) = -0.01 $/kWh
Coal CCS R&D breakthrough cost reduction = 5 percent

Oil
Oil (tax/subsidy) = 10 $/boe
Oil tax/subsidy start year = 2050
% Reduction in oil utilization = 15 percent
% Reduction in oil utilization start year = 2030
Stop building new oil infrastructure = Yes
Year to stop building new oil infrastructure = 2035

Natural Gas
Natural Gas (tax/subsidy) = -0.5 $/Mcf
Natural Gas tax/subsidy start year = 2025
% Reduction in gas utilization = 5 percent
% Reduction in gas utilization start year = 2040
Stop building new gas infrastructure = Yes
Year to stop building new gas infrastructure = 2040
Methane leakage rate = 2 %
Gas carbon capture & storage (CCS) (tax/subsidy) = -0.01 $/kWh
Gas CCS R&D breakthrough cost reduction = 1 percent

Bioenergy
Bioenergy (tax/subsidy) = -10 $/boe
Bioenergy tax/subsidy start year = 2025
Bioenergy R&D breakthrough cost reduction = 5 percent

Renewables
Renewables (tax/subsidy) = -0.05 $/kWh
Renewables tax/subsidy stop year = 2070
Renewables R&D breakthrough cost reduction = 2 percent
Renewables breakthrough year = 2025
Storage R&D breakthrough cost reduction = 5 percent
Storage breakthrough year = 2035 year

Nuclear
Nuclear (tax/subsidy) = -0.02 $/kWh
Nuclear tax/subsidy start year = 2030
Nuclear R&D breakthrough cost reduction = 2 percent

New Technology
New Technology breakthrough year = 2025
Initial cost relative to coal = 1.0

Carbon Price
Carbon Price = 20 $/ton
Year carbon price starts to phase in = 2022
Years to achieve initial carbon price = 15 years
Final carbon price (adjust "Year to start..." below) = 60 $/ton CO2
Year to start achieving final carbon price = 2035
Years to achieve final carbon price = 20 years
Emissions performance standard = 75 ton CO2/TJ
Emissions performance standard start year = 2030

Transport Energy Efficiency

Transport energy efficiency = 2.5 percent/year
Start year = 2030

Transport Electrification
Transport electrification = 2.0 percent/year
Year electrification of transport accelerates = 2030

Buildings and Industry Energy Efficiency

Buildings and industry energy efficiency = 3.0 percent/year
Start year = 2025

Buildings and Industry Electrification

Electrification of buildings and industry = 2.5 percent/year
Year electrification of buildings and industry accelerates = 2025

Deforestation
Deforestation (reduce/increase) = -3.0 percent/year

Methane & Other Gases

Agricultural and waste emissions (CH₄ & N₂O) = -30 %
Energy and industry emissions (CH₄, N₂O, & F-gases) = -40 %
Other greenhouse gases start year = 2026

Afforestation
Percent available land for afforestation = 30 %
Afforestation start year = 2030
Afforestation planting time = 20 years

Technological Carbon Removal

Technological carbon removal (% of max potential) = 39 %

Outcomes

Temperature increase in 2100

2.0ºC / 3.7ºF

CO₂ Concentration in 2100

451 ppm

Sea Level Rise in 2100

1.0 m / 3.4 ft

Cumulative avoided CO₂ by 2100

Link de Escenario: https://en-roads.climateinteractive.org/scenario.html?

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