METODOS PROBABILISTICO

PRETAREA

ESTUDIANTE

JOSE RAFAEL SILGADO

GRUPO

104561_75

TUTOR

ROGER RICARDO NEGRETE

UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL ABIERTA Y A DISTANCIA UNAD

ESCUELA DE CIENCIAS BASICAS TECNOLOGICAS E INGENIERIA

INGENIERIA INDUSTRIAL

FEBRERO DE 2020
 UNAD

NGENIERIA
 EVALUACION INICIAL PRE-TAREA - PRESABERES

EJERCICIO DISTRIBUCIONES DE PROBABILIDAD

RELACION DISTRIBUCIONES DE PROBABILIDAD

Variable aleatoria X
Normal Media normal μ
Varianza normal σ2

Parametro alfa α
Beta
Parametro beta β

Media empírica λ
Exponencial
y Poisson Constante Euler e
Evento x

t Student y Grados de libertad ϑ

Chi
Cuadrado Nivel de significancia α

Nota: Para generar y actualizar los datos oprima f9, fn+f9 o ctrl+alt+f9
RES

AD

AD

43
26
29

18
12

26
2.718281828459
2

5
0.1

f9 o ctrl+alt+f9
 Variable aleatoria X 43
Normal Media normal μ 26
Varianza normal σ2 29
σ 5.38516481
Solucion

𝑍=(𝑋−𝜇)/𝜎

z = 3.1568207490099
VALOR NORMAL =

Distribuccion normal
0.016

0.014

0.012

0.01

0.008

0.006

0.004

0.002

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
 Parametro alfa α
Beta
Parametro beta β

GRAFICA Solucion
X FX 𝜎^2=𝛼𝛽/((𝛼+ 〖𝛽 ) 〗 ^2
𝜇=𝛼/(𝛼+𝛽)
0 0.00920382 (𝛼+𝛽+1))
1 0.00948716
2 0.00976761
3 0.01004439 μ 0.6
4 0.01031674 σ2 0.00774193548
5 0.01058389
6 0.01084505
7 0.01109945 Distribuccion beta
8 0.01134632
5 4.4212568749
9 0.01158489 4.5
701
10 0.01181442 4
11 0.01203419 3.5
2.5663451769
12 0.01224347 3 2.3199290782 5226
2.5 2132
13 0.01244159
2
14 0.0126279
1.5
15 0.01280176 1 0.3881487517 0.2871933094
16 0.01296259 0.5 1.9542593156
7.0115554058 12053
0.0159020955 23259 0.0010385735
3975E-09 04409
4132E-05 24963
17 0.01310985 00
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
0
1
18 0.01324302
19 0.01336165
20 0.01346532
21 0.01355367
22 0.01362639
23 0.01368322
24 0.01372395
25 0.01374845
26 0.01375663
27 0.01374845
28 0.01372395
29 0.01368322
30 0.01362639
31 0.01355367
32 0.01346532
33 0.01336165
34 0.01324302
35 0.01310985
36 0.01296259
37 0.01280176
38 0.0126279
39 0.01244159
40 0.01224347
41 0.01203419
42 0.01181442
43 0.01158489
44 0.01134632
45 0.01109945
46 0.01084505
47 0.01058389
48 0.01031674
49 0.01004439
50 0.00976761
51 0.00948716
52 0.00920382
53 0.00891833
54 0.00863142
55 0.00834382
56 0.00805621
 18
Exponencial
12
y Poisson

GRAFICA
X FX Solucion
0 0 𝜇=1/𝜆 𝜎^2=1/𝜆^2
𝑃(𝑥)= 〖𝜆𝑒〗 ^(
0.1 1.9543E-09 −𝜆𝑥)
0.2 7.0116E-05
0.3 0.0159021
0.4 0.38814875 Expone ncias y poiss on
0.5 2.31992908
30
0.6 4.42125687
a 0.7 2.56634518 25
0.8 0.28719331
8749
0.9 0.00103857 20
1 0
15
5663451769
26 10

0.2871933094
23259 0.0010385735 0
24963 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0
0
0.7 0.8 0.9 1
 Media empírica λ 26
Constante Euler e 2.71828182846
Evento x 2
GRAFICA
Solucion X FX
μ 0.0384615385 0 26
𝑃(𝑥)= 〖𝜆𝑒〗 ^(
−𝜆𝑥) σ2 0.0014792899 0.01 20.0473412
P(x) 6.786726E-22 0.02 15.4575342
0.03 11.9185563
ne ncias y poiss on 0.04 9.18982173
0.05 7.08582662
0.06 5.46353785
0.07 4.21266952
0.08 3.24818552
0.09 2.50451859
0.1 1.93111303
0.11 1.48898777
0.12 1.14808638
0.13 0.88523382
0.14 0.68256094
0.15 0.5262897
0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.16 0.40579651
0.17 0.31289004
0.18 0.24125436
0.19 0.18601956
0.2 0.14343067
 Media empírica λ 26
Exponencial
Constante Euler e 2.718281828459
y Poisson
Evento x 2

Solucion
𝜇=𝜆 𝜎^2=𝜆 𝑃(𝑥)=𝜆^𝑥/𝑥! μ 26
𝑒^(−𝜆) σ2 26
P(x) 1.72687209E-09

Exponencial y poisson.
0.09
0.08
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
 GRAFICA
X FX
0 5.10909E-12
1 1.32836E-10
2 1.72687E-09
3 1.49662E-08
4 9.72805E-08
5 5.05858E-07
6 2.19205E-06
7 8.14191E-06
8 2.64612E-05
9 7.64435E-05
10 0.00019875
11 0.00046978
12 0.00101786
13 0.00203571
14 0.00378061
15 0.00655306
16 0.01064872
17 0.01628628
18 0.02352463
19 0.03219159
20 0.04184907
21 0.05181313
22 0.0612337
23 0.06922071
24 0.0749891
25 0.07798867
26 0.07798867
27 0.0751002
28 0.0697359
29 0.06252184
30 0.05418559
31 0.04544598
32 0.03692486
33 0.02909231
34 0.02224706
35 0.01652639
36 0.01193573
37 0.00838727
38 0.00573866
39 0.00382577
40 0.00248675
41 0.00157696
42 0.00097622
43 0.00059027
44 0.0003488
45 0.00020153
 t Student y Chi Grados de libertad ϑ
Cuadrado Nivel de significancia α

Valor en Tabla t(ϑ,α)

Distribucion T Estudent
GRAIFCA
6
X FX
-5 0.001757438378808 4
-4 0.005123727051918
2
-3 0.017292578800223
-2 0.065090310326217 0
-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
-1 0.219679797350981
0 0.379606689822494 -2

1 0.219679797350981 -4
2 0.065090310326217
3 0.017292578800223 -6
4 0.005123727051918
5 0.001757438378808
 5 t Student y Grados de libertad
0.1 Chi Cuadrado Nivel de significancia

Valor en tabla X2(ϑ,1-α)

ribucion T Estudent
Chi cuadrado
35

30

25

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 20

15

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2

GRAFICA X FX
 ϑ 5 GRAFICA
α 0.1 X FX
0 0
1 0.08065691
2 0.13836917
3 0.15418033
4 0.14397591
cuadrado
5 0.12204152
6 0.09730435
7 0.07437127
8 0.05511196
9 0.03988664
10 0.02833456
11 0.01982705
12 0.01370231
13 0.00937108
14 0.00635213
15 0.00427284
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
16 0.00285504
FICA X FX 17 0.00189653
18 0.00125328
19 0.00082437
20 0.00053999
21 0.00035239
22 0.00022918
23 0.00014859
24 9.60665E-05
25 6.19466E-05
26 3.98493E-05
27 2.55776E-05
28 1.63834E-05
29 1.04741E-05
30 6.68426E-06
 REFERENCIAS BIBLIOGRAFICAS

Hillier, F. y Lieberman, G. (2015). Introducción a la investigación de operaciones (pp. 1050-

1058). México, México: Editorial McGraw-Hill Interamericana. Recuperado
de http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2053/?il=2269 

Monks, J. (1988). Administración de operaciones (pp. 168-170). Naucalpan de Juárez,

México: Editorial McGraw-Hill Interamericana. Recuperado de
https://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2538/lib/unadsp/reader.action?
ppg=61&docID=3196010&tm=1541110436872 

Hillier, F. y Lieberman, G. (2010). Introducción a la investigación de operaciones (pp. 807-

812). México, México: Editorial McGraw-Hill Interamericana. Recuperado
de http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co/login?url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?
direct=true&db=edselb&AN=edselb.3214887&lang=es&site=eds-live 
ciones (pp. 1050-
o

an de Juárez,

ciones (pp. 807-

om/login.aspx?