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C) DISTRIBUCION POISSON
Entregado Por:
LINETH YURANY PARRA RAMIREZ
Presentado a:
LUIS JAVIER DEL VALLE
ADMINISTRACION DE EMPRESAS
PROBABILIDAD
GRUPO 100402_344
CEAD TUNJA
2020
ESTUDIO DE CASO ESTUDIANTE N°2
C) DISTRIBUCION POISSON
1. Máximo 6.
2. Menos de 4.
3. Al menos 3.
4. Tan grande que lo sature.
5. Entre 2 y 7.
6. Una o más pero menos de 8.
7. No más de 3 pero más de 1.
8. Más de 2 pero menos de 6.
9. Ninguna.
SOLUCION
1
λ x e− λ
P( x )=
x!
1. Máximo 6.
e=2,71828
x=≤ 6
P ( x ) =[ x ≤ a]
λ x e− λ
P( x )=
x!
Reemplazamos:
P ( x ) =[ x ≤ 6 ] =P ( 0 ) + P ( 1 )+ P ( 2 ) + P ( 3 ) + P ( 4 )+ P ( 5 ) + P ( 6 )
50 e−5
P ( 0 )= =0,003673
0!
51 e−5
P ( 1 )= =0,03368
1!
52 e−5
P ( 2 )= =0,08422
2!
53 e−5
P ( 3 )= =0,14037
3!
54 e−5
P ( 4 )= =0,17546
4!
55 e−5
P ( 5 )= =0,17546
5!
56 e−5
P 6=
( ) =0,14622
6!
P ( x ) =[ x ≤ 6]
P ( ≤6 )=0,7622
2. Menos de 4.
e=2,71828
x=¿ 4
λ x e− λ
P( x )=
x!
Reemplazamos:
P [ x <a ] =P [ x ≤3 ] =P ( 0 )+ P ( 1 ) + P ( 2 )+ P ( 3 )
50 e−5
P ( 0 )= =0,003673
0!
51 e−5
P ( 1 )= =0,03368
1!
52 e−5
P ( 2 )= =0,08422
2!
53 e−5
P 3=
( ) =0,14037
3!
P ( ¿ 4 )=0,2650
3. Al menos 3.
e=2,71828
x=3
λ x e− λ
P( x )=
x!
Reemplazamos:
5 3 e−5
P( x )=
3!
125 (2,71828)−5
P( x )=
6
P( x )=0,14037
4. Tan grande que lo sature.
e=2,71828
x=¿ 8
P [ x >a ] =1−P[ x ≤ a]
λ x e− λ
P( x )=
x!
Reemplazamos:
P [ x >a ] =1−P[ x ≤ 8]
P [ x ≤ 8 ] =P ( 0 ) + P (1 )+ P ( 2 ) + P ( 3 ) + P ( 4 ) + P ( 5 ) + P ( 6 ) + P ( 7 ) + P ( 8 )
50 e−5
P ( 0 )= =0 , 00 673
0!
51 e−5
P 1=
( ) =0,03368
1!
52 e−5
P 2=
( ) =0,08422
2!
53 e−5
P ( 3 )= =0,14037
3!
54 e−5
P ( 4 )= =0,17546
4!
55 e−5
P ( 5 )= =0,17546
5!
56 e−5
P ( 6 )= =0,14622
6!
57 e−5
P ( 7 )= =0 ,10444
7!
58 e−5
P ( 8 )= =0 , 06527
8!
P ( ≤8 )=0 , 93187
P [ x >a ] =1−0,93187 ¿
P ( x ) =¿ 8=0,06813
5. Entre 2 y 7.
e=2,71828
x=2 ≤ X ≤ 7
λ x e− λ
P( x )=
x!
Reemplazamos:
P [ x ≤7 ] =P ( 0 ) + P (1 ) + P ( 2 ) + P ( 3 )+ P ( 4 ) + P ( 5 ) + P ( 6 ) + P (7 )
50 e−5
P ( 0 )= =0 , 00 673
0!
51 e−5
P ( 1 )= =0,03368
1!
52 e−5
P ( 2 )= =0,08422
2!
53 e−5
P 3=
( ) =0,14037
3!
54 e−5
P ( 4 )= =0,17546
4!
55 e−5
P ( 5 )= =0,17546
5!
56 e−5
P ( 6 )= =0,14622
6!
57 e−5
P ( 7 )= =0 ,10444
7!
P ( ≤7 )=0 , 8666
P [ x ≤1 ]=P ( 0 )+ P ( 1 )
50 e−5
P ( 0 )= =0 , 00 673
0!
51 e−5
P ( 1 )= =0,03368
1!
P ( ≤1 )=0,00 673+0,03368
P ( ≤1 )=0,0 404
e=2,71828
x=1 ≤ X ≤ 8
λ x e− λ
P( x )=
x!
Reemplazamos:
P [ a ≤ x ≤b ] =P[ x ≤ 8]−P [x ≤0 ]
P [ x ≤ 8 ] =P ( 0 ) + P (1 )+ P ( 2 ) + P ( 3 ) + P ( 4 ) + P ( 5 ) + P ( 6 ) + P ( 7 ) + P ( 8 )
50 e−5
P ( 0 )= =0 , 00 673
0!
51 e−5
P ( 1 )= =0,03368
1!
52 e−5
P ( 2 )= =0,08422
2!
53 e−5
P ( 3 )= =0,14037
3!
54 e−5
P ( 4 )= =0,17546
4!
55 e−5
P ( 5 )= =0,17546
5!
56 e−5
P ( 6 )= =0,14622
6!
57 e−5
P ( 7 )= =0 ,10444
7!
58 e−5
P 8=
( ) =0 , 06527
8!
P ( ≤8 )=0 , 93187
P [ x ≤ 0 ] =P ( 0 )
50 e−5
P ( 0 )= =0 , 00 673
0!
P [ x ≤ 8 ] −P [ x ≤0 ] =0,93187−0 , 00 673
P ( x ) =1≤ X ≤ 8=0 ,92820
e=2,71828
x=1 ≤ X ≤ 3
λ x e− λ
P( x )=
x!
Reemplazamos:
P [ a ≤ x ≤b ] =P[ x ≤ 3]−P [x ≤1−1]
P [ a ≤ x ≤b ] =P[ x ≤ 3]−P [x ≤0 ]
P [ x ≤3 ] =P ( 0 ) + P ( 1 ) + P ( 2 ) + P ( 3 )
50 e−5
P ( 0 )= =0,00673
0!
51 e−5
P ( 1 )= =0,03368
1!
52 e−5
P ( 2 )= =0,08422
2!
53 e−5
P ( 3 )= =0,14037
3!
P ( ≤3 )=0,00673+0,03368+0,08422+0,14037
P ( ≤3 )=0 , 265
P [ x ≤ 0 ] =P ( 0 )
50 e−5
P ( 0 )= =0 , 00 673
0!
P [ x ≤3 ] −P [ x ≤0 ] =0 , 265−0,00673
e=2,71828
x=2 ≤ X ≤ 6
λ x e− λ
P( x )=
x!
Reemplazamos:
P [ x ≤6 ] =P ( 0 ) + P (1 )+ P ( 2 ) + P ( 3 ) + P ( 4 ) + P ( 5 ) + P ( 6 )
50 e−5
P ( 0 )= =0 , 00 673
0!
51 e−5
P ( 1 )= =0,03368
1!
52 e−5
P 2=
( ) =0,08422
2!
53 e−5
P ( 3 )= =0,14037
3!
54 e−5
P ( 4 )= =0,17546
4!
55 e−5
P ( 5 )= =0,17546
5!
56 e−5
P ( 6 )= =0,14622
6!
P ( ≤6 )=0 , 7622
P [ x ≤1 ]=P ( 0 )+ P ( 1 )
50 e−5
P ( 0 )= =0 , 00 673
0!
51 e−5
P ( 1 )= =0,03368
1!
P ( ≤1 )=0,00673+0,03368
P ( ≤1 )=0 , 0404
e=2,71828
x=0
λ x e− λ
P( x )=
x!
λ x e− λ
P( x )=
x!
Reemplazamos:
5 0 e−5
P( x )=
0!
1(2,71828)−5
P(0)=
1
P( x )=0 , 00673