15 30 60 90 120 180

120
135
150
165
0.9
180
195
210
225
240
255
270
285
1.8
300
315
330
345
360
375
390
405
2.6
420
435
450
465
480
495
510
525
3.4
540
555
570
585
600
615
630
645
4.3
660
675
690
705
 720
735
750
765
5.3
780
795
810
825
840
855
870
885
900
915
930
945
960
975
990
1005
1020
1035
1050
1065
1080
1095
1110
1125
1140
1155
1170
1185
1200
1215
1230
1245
1260
1275
1290
1305
1320
1335
1350
1365
1380
1395
1410
1425
1440
1455
1470
1485
1500
1515
1530
1545
1560
1575
1590
1605
1620
1635
1650
1665
1680
1695
1710
1725
1740
1755
1770
1785
1800
1815
1830
1845
1860
1875
1890
1905
1920
1935
1950
1965
1980
1995
2010
2025
2040
2055
2070
2085
2100
2115
2130
2145
2160
2175
2190
2205
2220
2235
2250
2265
2280
2295
2310
2325
2340
2355
2370
2385
2400
2415
2430
2445
2460
2475
2490
2505
2520
2535
2550
2565
2580
2595
2610
2625
2640
2655
2670
2685
2700
2715
2730
2745
2760
2775
2790
2805
2820
2835
2850
2865
2880
2895
2910
2925
2940
2955
2970
2985
3000
3015
3030
3045
3060
3075
3090
3105
3120
3135
3150
3165
3180
3195
3210
3225
3240
3255
3270
3285
3300
3315
3330
3345
3360
3375
3390
3405
3420
3435
3450
3465
3480
3495
3510
3525
3540
3555
3570
3585
3600
3615
3630
3645
3660
3675
3690
3705
3720
3735
3750
3765
3780
3795
3810
3825
3840
3855
3870
3885
3900
3915
3930
3945
3960
15
 ESTIMACION DATOS FALTANTES

Promedio Proporcion
Aritmetica Normal
Estacion P Month Storm P Normal Year % Diferencia X 1/n*Nx/Ni*Pi
A 107 1200 22.69938650307 29.068333333
B 89 935 4.39672801636 31.031016043
C 112 1120 14.51942740286 32.6
X 978

X= 92.699349376

METODO DE INTEPOLACION

Mes P Month Xi Matriz de Ecuacione

Enero 167 X1 X4 X10
Frebrero 209 X2 0.0046437973 -0.00070952
Marzo 131 X3 -0.0007095218 0.00539921
Abril X4
Mayo 92 X5
Junio 61 X6 X4 221.04108
Julio 76 X7 X10 193.706771
Agosto 7 X8 Xn
Septiembre 77 X9
Octubre X10
Noviembre 258 X11
Diciembre 175 X12
Suma P Month 1253

P Year 1409.4
P Media Month
Abril 186.8
Octubre 163.7
NTES

Promedio
Aritmetica

Proporcion
Normal

Matriz de Ecuaciones Matriz Inversa

Xn Xn Termino Ind
0.88903079 219.753291 28.8782321
0.88903079 28.8782321 189.007102
 PROMEDIO POLIGONOS THIESSEN
ARITMETICO

Estacion Precipitacion (mm) Area Ai*Pi

Albán 14.6 Precip Media 265.16 3871.34
Betania 13 21.86 70.15 911.95
Colegurre 34 102.26 3476.84
El Pedral 10 302.02 3020.20
El Recreo 16 16.65 266.40
El Refugio 45 22.59 1016.55
La Capilla 35 39.24 1373.40
Naranjal 15 166.47 2497.05
Patios 25 221.17 5529.25
Patumac 11 105.83 1164.13
0
0
0
0
1311.54
POLIGONOS THIESSEN LINEAS ISOYETAS

isoyeta Iso. Precip Media

Precip Media 40 40 40
17.63 40 35 37.5
35 30 32.5
30 30 30
30 25 27.5
25 20 22.5
20 15 17.5
15 10 12.5
10 10 10
OYETAS

Area Pi*Ai
15.46 618.4
36.86 1382.25 Precip Media
42.81 1391.325 17.45
14.27 428.1
95.12 2615.8
170.04 3825.9
245.13 4289.775
738.41 9230.125
10.7 107
 Serie de maximas Estacion (PRECIPITACION MAXIMA (MM))
Año 20` 30` 40` 60` 90`
1991 20 27 34 34 50.5
1992 32 37 50 54 35.4
1993 18 30.5 39 35 38.7
1994 22 37 40 40 53
1995 25 30 41 47 51.8
1996 20.5 30 36 41.5 70.5
1997 20 43 34.5 40.5 44.4
1998 33 24 54 50.7 40
1999 37 27 22 51 56.4
2000 15.5 20 30 66.5 63.1

MODELO GUMBELL
Parametros Gumbell 20` 30` 40`
n= 10 15.5 20 22
Yn= 0.4952 18 24 30
Sn= 0.9497 20 27 34
20 27 34.5
a 20.5 30 36
22 30 39
25 30.5 40
Xf 32 37 41
33 37 50
37 43 54

Yi Promedio 24.3 30.55 38.05

Desviacion 7.23110565 6.81685004 9.22692317
a 0.13133538 0.13931655 0.10292705
Xf 20.5295004 26.9955047 33.2388256

Xi Xi en PRECIPITA
Yi Tr 20` 30` 40`
0.36651292 2 23.32 29.63 36.80
1.49993999 5 31.95 37.76 47.81
 2.25036733 10 37.66 43.15 55.10
2.97019525 20 43.14 48.32 62.10
3.19853426 25 44.88 49.95 64.31
3.90193866 50 50.24 55.00 71.15
4.60014923 100 55.56 60.01 77.93

Xi en INTENSI
𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐝=(𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐜𝐢𝐨𝐧 Tr 20 30 40
𝐄𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐝𝐚)/𝐏𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐨𝐝𝐨(𝟔𝟎) 2 69.96 59.25 55.20
5 95.85 75.52 71.72
10 112.99 86.30 82.65
20 129.43 96.63 93.14
25 134.65 99.91 96.47
50 150.72 110.01 106.72
100 166.67 120.03 116.90

Parametro asumido
b= 75 Linealizacion Variables Lo
TR t Intensidad I Log (Inten)
2 20 69.96 1.84
Para el Estimado 5 20 95.85 1.98
10 20 112.99 2.05
20 20 129.43 2.11
25 20 134.65 2.13
50 20 150.72 2.18
100 20 166.67 2.22
2 30 59.25 1.77
5 30 75.52 1.88
10 30 86.30 1.94
20 30 96.63 1.99
25 30 99.91 2.00
50 30 110.01 2.04
100 30 120.03 2.08
2 40 55.20 1.74
5 40 71.72 1.86
10 40 82.65 1.92
20 40 93.14 1.97
25 40 96.47 1.98
50 40 106.72 2.03
100 40 116.90 2.07
2 60 44.68 1.65
 5 60 56.50 1.75
10 60 64.33 1.81
20 60 71.85 1.86
25 60 74.23 1.87
50 60 81.57 1.91
100 60 88.85 1.95
2 90 32.58 1.51
5 90 41.44 1.62
10 90 47.31 1.67
20 90 52.93 1.72
25 90 54.72 1.74
50 90 60.22 1.78
100 90 65.68 1.82
2 120 25.34 1.40
5 120 32.02 1.51
10 120 36.45 1.56
20 120 40.69 1.61
25 120 42.03 1.62
50 120 46.18 1.66
100 120 50.30 1.70
2 150 20.63 1.31
5 150 25.84 1.41
10 150 29.29 1.47
20 150 32.60 1.51
25 150 33.65 1.53
50 150 36.88 1.57
100 150 40.09 1.60
2 180 17.75 1.25
5 180 21.91 1.34
10 180 24.67 1.39
20 180 27.31 1.44
25 180 28.15 1.45
50 180 30.74 1.49
100 180 33.30 1.52

Serie De Precipitaciones Estimadas (IDF) LONG

TR 20 30 40 60 90
2 78.36 67.39 58.75 46.13 34.08
5 92.27 79.35 69.17 54.32 40.13
10 104.41 89.79 78.28 61.46 45.41
20 118.15 101.60 88.57 69.55 51.39
25 122.95 105.72 92.17 72.37 53.47
50 139.13 119.63 104.30 81.89 60.51
100 157.43 135.37 118.02 92.67 68.47
 IDF
180.00

160.00

140.00

120.00

100.00

80.00

60.00

40.00

20.00

0.00
15 35 55 75 95 115 135 155

Row 127 Row 128 Row 129 Row 130 Row 131 Row 132
ACION MAXIMA (MM))
120` 150` 180`
45.5 46.7 51.8
67.7 68.9 69.5
56.3 40 46.8
54.9 55.2 55.8
35.6 54.7 36.7
51.8 51.8 55.5
45.9 36 71.8
71 70.2 57
40 56.3 46.2
53.3 50.8 55.5

LO GUMBELL
60` 90` 120` 150` 180`
34 35.4 35.6 36 36.7
35 38.7 40 40 46.2
40 40 45.5 46.7 46.8
40.5 44.4 45.9 50.8 51.8
41.5 50.5 51.8 51.8 55.5
47 51.8 53.3 54.7 55.5
50.7 53 54.9 55.2 55.8
51 56.4 56.3 56.3 57
54 63.1 67.7 68.9 69.5
66.5 70.5 71 70.2 71.8

46.02 50.38 52.2 53.06 54.66

9.90979314 11.1359079 11.1959318 10.90975099 10.4683863
0.09583449 0.08528267 0.08482545 0.087050566 0.09072076
40.8527582 44.5734278 46.3621297 47.37135233 49.2014922

Xi en PRECIPITACION
60` 90` 120` 150` 180`
44.68 48.87 50.68 51.58 53.24
56.50 62.16 64.04 64.60 65.74
 64.33 70.96 72.89 73.22 74.01
71.85 79.40 81.38 81.49 81.94
74.23 82.08 84.07 84.11 84.46
81.57 90.33 92.36 92.20 92.21
88.85 98.51 100.59 100.22 99.91

Xi en INTENSIDAD
60 90 120 150 180
44.68 32.58 25.34 20.63 17.75
56.50 41.44 32.02 25.84 21.91
64.33 47.31 36.45 29.29 24.67
71.85 52.93 40.69 32.60 27.31
74.23 54.72 42.03 33.65 28.15
81.57 60.22 46.18 36.88 30.74
88.85 65.68 50.30 40.09 33.30

Linealizacion Variables Log Estimado

Log (TR) Log(t+b) Con Modelo n a Log C
0.30 1.98 78.36 -1.50812031 0.17832711 4.82308084
0.70 1.98 92.27 0.02074835 0.00572492 0.04589545
1.00 1.98 104.41 0.99159607 0.02311356 #N/A
1.30 1.98 118.15 3126.78551 53 #N/A
1.40 1.98 122.95 3.34088682 0.02831454 #N/A
1.70 1.98 139.13
2.00 1.98 157.43 Parametros para el Modelo LONG
0.30 2.02 67.39 C a b n
0.70 2.02 79.35 66539.7001 0.17832711 75 1.50812031
1.00 2.02 89.79
1.30 2.02 101.60
1.40 2.02 105.72
1.70 2.02 119.63
2.00 2.02 135.37
0.30 2.06 58.75
0.70 2.06 69.17
1.00 2.06 78.28
1.30 2.06 88.57
1.40 2.06 92.17
1.70 2.06 104.30
2.00 2.06 118.02
0.30 2.13 46.13
 0.70 2.13 54.32
1.00 2.13 61.46
1.30 2.13 69.55
1.40 2.13 72.37
1.70 2.13 81.89
2.00 2.13 92.67
0.30 2.22 34.08
0.70 2.22 40.13
1.00 2.22 45.41
1.30 2.22 51.39
1.40 2.22 53.47
1.70 2.22 60.51
2.00 2.22 68.47
0.30 2.29 26.49
0.70 2.29 31.19
1.00 2.29 35.30
1.30 2.29 39.94
1.40 2.29 41.56
1.70 2.29 47.03
2.00 2.29 53.22
0.30 2.35 21.35
0.70 2.35 25.14
1.00 2.35 28.45
1.30 2.35 32.19
1.40 2.35 33.50
1.70 2.35 37.90
2.00 2.35 42.89
0.30 2.41 17.68
0.70 2.41 20.81 df
1.00 2.41 23.55
1.30 2.41 26.65
1.40 2.41 27.73
1.70 2.41 31.38
2.00 2.41 35.51

adas (IDF) LONG

120 150 180
26.49 21.35 17.68
31.19 25.14 20.81
35.30 28.45 23.55
39.94 32.19 26.65
41.56 33.50 27.73
47.03 37.90 31.38
53.22 42.89 35.51
 180.00

160.00

140.00

120.00

100.00

80.00

60.00

40.00

20.00

0.00
15 35
115 135 155 175

Row 131 Row 132 Row 133

 I Wait

TR t I Watch I Wait (wat-wai)^2 Parametros para el Mo

2 20 69.96 81.34 129.60 C
5 20 95.85 95.76 0.01 5474.02914
10 20 112.99 108.33 21.72
20 20 129.43 122.56 47.27
25 20 134.65 127.53 50.76
50 20 150.72 144.27 41.53
100 20 166.67 163.22 11.88
2 30 59.25 67.78 72.65
5 30 75.52 79.78 18.15
10 30 86.30 90.26 15.72
20 30 96.63 102.12 30.09
25 30 99.91 106.25 40.26
50 30 110.01 120.21 104.06
100 30 120.03 135.99 254.85
2 40 55.20 57.98 7.72
5 40 71.72 68.25 12.02
10 40 82.65 77.21 29.60
20 40 93.14 87.35 33.53
25 40 96.47 90.89 31.12
50 40 106.72 102.83 15.15
100 40 116.90 116.33 0.32
2 60 44.68 44.81 0.02
 5 60 56.50 52.75 14.09
10 60 64.33 59.68 21.69
20 60 71.85 67.52 18.75
25 60 74.23 70.25 15.82
50 60 81.57 79.48 4.37
100 60 88.85 89.91 1.12
2 90 32.58 33.24 0.44
5 90 41.44 39.13 5.34
10 90 47.31 44.27 9.23
20 90 52.93 50.08 8.13
25 90 54.72 52.11 6.80
50 90 60.22 58.95 1.59
100 90 65.68 66.70 1.04
2 120 25.34 26.31 0.93
5 120 32.02 30.97 1.11
10 120 36.45 35.04 1.99
20 120 40.69 39.64 1.11
25 120 42.03 41.24 0.63
50 120 46.18 46.66 0.23
100 120 50.30 52.79 6.20
2 150 20.63 21.71 1.15
5 150 25.84 25.55 0.08
10 150 29.29 28.91 0.15
20 150 32.60 32.70 0.01
25 150 33.65 34.03 0.15
50 150 36.88 38.50 2.63
100 150 40.09 43.55 12.03
2 180 17.75 18.44 0.48
5 180 21.91 21.70 0.04
10 180 24.67 24.55 0.01
20 180 27.31 27.78 0.22
25 180 28.15 28.90 0.57
50 180 30.74 32.70 3.85
100 180 33.30 36.99 13.63
Suma Cuad Errores 1123.6424

Serie De Precipitaciones Estimadas (IDF) LONG

TR 20 30 40 60 90 120 150
2 81.34 67.78 57.98 44.81 33.24 26.31 21.71
5 95.76 79.78 68.25 52.75 39.13 30.97 25.55
10 108.33 90.26 77.21 59.68 44.27 35.04 28.91
20 122.56 102.12 87.35 67.52 50.08 39.64 32.70
25 127.53 106.25 90.89 70.25 52.11 41.24 34.03
50 144.27 120.21 102.83 79.48 58.95 46.66 38.50
100 163.22 135.99 116.33 89.91 66.70 52.79 43.55
 IDF
180.00

160.00

140.00

120.00

100.00

80.00

60.00

40.00

20.00

0.00
15 35 55 75 95 115 135 155 17

Row 127 Row 128 Row 129 Row 130 Row 131 Row 132 Row 133
Parametros para el Modelo SHORT
a b n
0.17801588 34.5155479 1.08352651
 180
18.44
21.70
24.55
27.78
28.90
32.70
36.99
 155 175

132 Row 133