Universidad Nacional Abierta y a Distancia

Academic and Research Vice-rector

Activities guide and evaluation rubric
Task 2 - Uncertainty environments and game theory

1. General description of the course

Faculty or Academic School of Basic Sciences, Technology and

Unit Engineering
Academic Level Professional
Academic Field Disciplinary training
Course Name Theory of decisions
Course Code 212066
Course Type Theoretical Can be ye ☒ N ☐
enable s o
d
Number of Credits 3

2. Description of the activity

Type of the Number of

Individual ☒ Collaborative ☒ 4
activity: weeks
Moment of Unit
Initial ☐ ☒ Final ☐
evaluation: Intermediate:
Evaluative score of the Delivery Environment of the activity:
activity: 100 points Collaborative learning
Starting date of the activity: Deadline of the activity: Friday, April 10,
Saturday, March 14, 2020 2020
Competence to develop:

The student uses in real situations, the criteria of uncertainty and the theory
of games in the decision making that guarantees the development and
continuity of a decision process in production and management problems.
Topics to develop:

Unit 2. Optimization models under uncertainties

4. Criteria of Laplace, Minimal, Savage and Hurwicz

5. Game Theory

Pasos, fases de la estrategia de aprendizaje para desarrollar

El alumno debe desarrollar individualmente cada uno de los

ejercicios descritos a continuación:

Paso 1. En los ejercicios 1 a 3, el estudiante debe resolver según los

criterios de Laplace, Wald o pesimista, optimista, Hurwicz y Savage
(matriz de costos de las preguntas propuestas). Estos conceptos
tienen en cuenta las probabilidades y los estados que están
influenciados por los entornos de aprendizaje. incertidumbre, por lo
que se recomienda que identifique estas variables muy bien porque
la vida diaria está llena de ellas para la toma de decisiones.
Nota: Las actividades de colaboración deben desarrollarse
individualmente para cumplir con todos los Ejercicios resueltos, el
equipo discute, corrige, consolida y presenta las contribuciones de
todos los participantes en la actividad. Dividir entre los miembros de
los grupos de colaboración los Ejercicios propuestos no es una
metodología del curso, ya que la calificación se realizará de acuerdo
con las contribuciones presentadas individualmente.

Paso 2. En los ejercicios 4 a 6, el estudiante debe resolver las

preguntas planteadas por la teoría de juegos, recuerde que el
objetivo de la teoría de juegos es presentar alternativas de decisión
donde se asume que en un juego justo lo que un jugador gana a su
oponente debe perder exactamente y viceversa, por lo tanto, es
importante generar soluciones que satisfagan esta condición de
justicia en el juego, para llamarlo de alguna manera.

Paso 3. Ingrese al entorno práctico, en este espacio se presentan

videos para el uso del complemento Excel Solver y tutoriales
prácticos para desarrollar las actividades propuestas, recuerde
adjuntar capturas de pantalla a su trabajo colaborativo final, la tabla
de ingresos y resultados para el Ejercicios planteados. En este mismo
espacio puede revisar cuidadosamente la Guía para el uso de
recursos educativos.

Paso 4. Consolidación del trabajo final y aumento del entorno de

evaluación y monitoreo.

Actividades a desarrollar

A continuación, encontrará 6 ejercicios que conforman la tarea 2, estos

deben desarrollarse individualmente. Como actividad de colaboración,
además de la discusión, la corrección, la consolidación del trabajo final, es el
uso de la herramienta en línea que está disponible en el entorno de
aprendizaje práctico para verificar los resultados de los métodos manuales y
en línea de los Ejercicios planteados.

Ejercicio 1. Criterios de Laplace, Wald o pesimista, optimista, Hurwicz

y Savage (matriz de beneficio):

Para desarrollar el ejercicio 1 a 3, es necesario consultar la siguiente

referencia:
Sharma, J. (2016). Operations Research : Theory and Applications. (pp. 341-
347), New Delhi: Laxmi Publications Pvt Ltd, v. Sixth edition. Available in
the knowledge environment of the course.

En la empresa ABC se presentan varias alternativas para elegir la mejor

tecnología de cuatro posibles, cuyo desempeño depende de la adaptación de
los trabajadores que manipularán los equipos que lo componen. Los
beneficios esperados de cada alternativa y grado de adaptación de los
trabajadores se dan en la tabla, en millones de pesos ($). Para Hurwicz,
asuma un alfa de 0,7.
Según la Tabla 1, aplicando los criterios de Laplace, Wald o los criterios
pesimistas y optimistas, Hurwicz y Savage determinan el nivel de decisión
óptimo de acuerdo con los criterios de beneficio.

Ejercicio 2. Criterios de Laplace, Wald o pesimista, optimista, Hurwicz

y Savage (matriz de costos):

Un almacén de productos terminados que arrienda sus servicios a las

importaciones de los Estados Unidos, debe planificar su nivel de suministro
para satisfacer la demanda de sus clientes en el día del amor y la amistad.
Se desconoce el número exacto de cajas, pero se espera que caiga en una de
cinco categorías: cajas 610, 630, 680, 715 y 730. Por lo tanto, hay cuatro
niveles de suministro. Se espera que la desviación del número de tolvas
genere costos adicionales, ya sea debido a suministros excesivos o porque no
se puede satisfacer la demanda. La siguiente tabla muestra los costos en
cientos de dólares (US $). Para Hurwicz, asuma un alfa de 0,75.

Según la Tabla 2, aplicando los criterios de Laplace, Wald o los criterios

pesimistas y optimistas, Hurwicz y Savage determinan el nivel de decisión
óptimo de acuerdo con los criterios de beneficio.

Ejercicio 3. Criterios de Laplace, Wald o pesimista, optimista, Hurwicz

y Savage (matriz de costos):

Un almacén de productos terminados que arrienda sus servicios a las

importaciones de los Estados Unidos, debe planificar su nivel de suministro
para satisfacer la demanda de sus clientes en el día del amor y la amistad.
Se desconoce el número exacto de cajas, pero se espera que caiga en una de
cinco categorías: cajas 580, 720, 750, 790 y 830. Por lo tanto, hay cuatro
niveles de suministro. Se espera que la desviación del número de tolvas
genere costos adicionales, ya sea debido a suministros excesivos o porque no
se puede satisfacer la demanda. La siguiente tabla muestra los costos en
cientos de dólares (US $). Para Hurwicz, asuma un alfa de 0,55.

Según la Tabla 3, aplicando los criterios de Laplace, Wald o los criterios

pesimistas y optimistas, Hurwicz y Savage determinan el nivel de decisión
óptimo de acuerdo con los criterios de beneficio.

Ejercicio 4. Método de la teoría de juegos

Para desarrollar el ejercicio 4 a 5, es necesario consultar la siguiente

referencia:

Sharma, J. (2016). Investigación de operaciones: teoría y aplicaciones.

(págs. 383-391), Nueva Delhi: Laxmi Publications Pvt Ltd, v. Sexta edición.
Disponible en el entorno de conocimiento del curso.

Las soluciones gráficas solo son aplicables a juegos en los que al menos uno
de los jugadores solo tiene dos estrategias. Considere el siguiente juego 2 x
n:

Player 2
Strategy
A B C
Player I 27 33 38
1 II 19 25 31

De acuerdo con la Tabla 4, encuentre el valor del juego mediante el método

gráfico aplicado a las matrices 2 x no m x 2.

Ejercicio 5. Método de la teoría de juegos

Las soluciones gráficas solo son aplicables a juegos en los que al menos uno
de los jugadores solo tiene dos estrategias. Considere el siguiente juego m x
2:
Player 2
Strategy
A B
I 27 33
Player 1 II 19 25
II 33 37

De acuerdo con la Tabla 5, encuentre el valor del juego mediante el método

gráfico aplicado a las matrices 2 x no m x 2.
Ejercicio 6. Solución óptima de juegos para dos personas (teoría de
juegos, estrategias mixtas):
Para desarrollar el ejercicio 6, es necesario consultar la siguiente referencia:

Sharma, J. (2016). Investigación de operaciones: teoría y aplicaciones.

(págs. 383-391), Nueva Delhi: Laxmi Publications Pvt Ltd, v. Sexta edición.
Disponible en el entorno de conocimiento del curso.

Los juegos representan el último caso de falta de información en el que

oponentes inteligentes trabajan en un entorno conflictivo. El resultado es que
generalmente se propone un criterio muy conservador para resolver
conjuntos de dos personas y suma cero, llamado criterio minimax-maximina.
Para determinar un juego justo, minimax = maximin, es necesario resolver la
estrategia estable a través del Solver.

PLAYER B
81 83 81 80 91
PLAYER A

84 83 86 86 82
82 78 86 89 84
87 87 91 89 88
83 85 35 88 81

Resuelva el juego de los jugadores A y B para determinar el valor del juego,

utilizando la herramienta Excel propuesta, de acuerdo con los datos de la
tabla 6.

Ejercicio 7. Uso del entorno de aprendizaje práctico. Actividad

colaborativa

Ingrese al entorno práctico, en este espacio se presentan videos para el uso

del complemento Solver de Excel y tutoriales prácticos para desarrollar las
actividades propuestas, recuerde adjuntar capturas de pantalla a su trabajo
colaborativo final, la tabla de ingresos y resultados para los ejercicios
planteados. En este mismo espacio puede revisar cuidadosamente la Guía
para el uso de recursos educativos.

El líder del grupo debe cargar en el entorno de evaluación y monitoreo un

solo archivo en formato EXCEL consolidando las contribuciones de todos los
participantes en el espacio llamado Tarea 2. Unidad 2.

Environment
Collaborative learning environment - Evaluation and
for the
monitoring environment
development
Products to Individual: The student must leave evidence in the forum
deliver by of the activity, the development and solution of each of the
student proposed exercises.

Feedback of the contributions of their peers.

Collaborative:
 The working group should demonstrate the use of the
resource provided in the practical learning environment and
upload the screenshots in the final report.

At the end of the resolution of the exercises, a document

must be submitted in Excel format, with the following
specifications:

Expected Product: EXCEL file marked with its Working

Group_212066_TC2, in letter Arial 12 and APA standards,
with the following content:

Page 1. Cover with the members who participated actively

in the consolidation and generation of collaborative work.
Page 2. Introduction.
Page 3 and successive. Exercises solved according to the
proposed theme.
Following pages. Screen shots solution exercises with the
recourse online that performed in the practical learning
environment.
Final page. Bibliography according to APA standards that
supports the solution of Exercises.

3. General guidelines for the collaborative work

Task-based learning (TBL), also known as task-

based approach, is a model that manages to
transform teacher-based teaching to student-based
instruction. In TBL the student is progressively
gaining responsibility with their learning from the
solution of problems of the profession which
facilitates motivation and allows significant learning.
Planning of
activities for the
This model promotes organizing the course
development of
according to a final task or a set of tasks that will
collaborative work
guide the presentation of the different contents
(Liang, 2008). The elaboration of the task is
contemplated, according to Nunan in three phases
called: Pre-task, Cycle of the task and Post-task.
Each of these moments will require certain specific
information for the development of the task and the
achievement of the proposed objectives
Roles to perform by Recognition of actors as subjects:
the student in the
collaborative group The students at the beginning of the course, in the
space destined to do so, will be recognized as
participants of a collaborative group, they will be
able to present their strengths to the service of the
group and they will define the channels of
communication (contact data, institutional and
personal email address, skype , social networking
links.) of which will be available to interact
effectively and proactively.

Planning of academic activities:

According to the elements that make up the

principle of responsible action, students must design
a work plan based on the analytical reflection of the
activity agenda, the evaluation plan, the guides and
rubrics given for the development of each academic
activity . They will also design a proposal for the
planning of their collaborative work that responds to
the particularities and needs of the learning strategy
and mobilizes the work to be developed.

Staging of the principles of collaborative work:

It is important that students internalize each of the

principles of collaborative work and implement them
from the beginning of the academic year and
thereby ensure excellence in their learning processes
and the presentation of academic products that
meet the expected quality in the course.

Principle of Interaction. In the perspective of the

student, this principle materializes when defining the
ways and mechanisms that will enable interaction in
collaborative work. The intention is for students to
participate in the different spaces of Collaborative
Work and the general forum of the Initial
Environment to allow efficient interaction between
them.

Principle of growth. Each student can contribute

to the process of the other peers. From this idea, in
the same scenario where interactions occur,
students can contribute to others in terms of
suggesting greater participation to those who do not
intervene frequently, offering information search
strategies, proposing technological resources that
support the process being carried out, among others
that allow the team to advance and that each one
can strengthen its formative process.

Principle of Responsible Action. Students should

organize their work to achieve the goals set. It is
important that each one assumes actions in the
development of the work that contribute in the
achievement of good results of the equipment. The
aim is to ensure that the organization of
responsibilities, the definition of roadmaps in the
development of work and the coordination of
individual efforts, allow a successful collaborative
 exercise. It is also important to consider aspects of
evaluation in the student's exercise, through the
following scenarios:

Self-evaluation and Co-evaluation. It is the

process in which the student, through an instrument
designed (Survey) recognizes and presents its
strengths and difficulties in the development of
collaborative work. A score has not been assigned
on this process, but it is a formative activity that
allows the student to identify the aspects that allow
him / her to progress in his / her formative process
based on the difficulties identified during the
development of the activities, their individual
participation and their interaction with the group.
Compiler: Consolidate the document that
constitutes the final product of the debate, taking
into account that the contributions of all the
participants have been included and that only the
participants who participated in the process are
included. You must inform the person in charge of
the alerts to warn those who did not participate, that
they will not be included in the product to be
delivered.

Reviewer: Ensure that the writing complies with the

rules of submission of work required by the teacher.
Roles and
responsibility for
Evaluator: Ensure that the document contains the
the delivery of
criteria present in the rubric. You must inform the
products by
person in charge of the alerts so that you inform the
students
other members of the team in case any adjustments
need to be made on the subject.
Deliveries: Alert on the delivery times of the
products and send the document in the stipulated
times, using the resources destined for the
shipment, and indicate to the other partners that the
delivery has been made.

Alerts: Ensure that the members of the group are

notified of new developments and inform the teacher
through the work forum and messaging of the
course, which has been sent the document.
Use of references Use of the APA standard, version 3 in Spanish
(Translation of version 6 in English).

The APA Standards is the style of organization and

presentation of information most used in the area of
social sciences. These are published under a Manual
that allows you to have access to the ways in which
a scientific article should be presented. Here you can
find the most relevant aspects of the sixth edition of
the APA Standards Manual, such as references,
 citations, preparation and presentation of tables and
figures, headings and seriation, among others.

You can check how to implement them by going to

http://normasapa.com/

In the agreement 029 of December 13, 2013, article

99, the mistakes that infringe upon the academic
order, among others, are the following: paragraph
e) “To plagiarize is to present as your own work the
whole or part of a writing, report, task or document
of invention performed by another person. It also
implies the use of cites or lack of references, or
includes cites where there is no coincidence between
them and the reference” and paragraph f)”To
reproduce, or copy for profit, educational resources
or results of research products, which have
Plagiarism policy intellectual rights reserved for the University”.

The academic punishments that the student will face

are:

a. In case of academic fraud proved in the

academic work or evaluation, the score
achieved will be zero (0.0) without leading to
disciplinary measures.
b. In case of plagiarism proved in the academic
work of any nature, the score achieved will be
zero (0.0), without leading to disciplinary
measures.
 4. Evaluation rubric
Rubric evaluation format
Task 2 - Uncertainty environments and game theory
Type of activity Individual activity X Collaborative activity X

Moment of Intermediate, unit 2 X Fina

Initial
Evaluation l
Performance Criteria for Individual Activity Score
Aspects
High rating Average rating Low rating
evaluated
The student The student Participation in the
participated participated in the effective elaboration
Individual actively and forum, but his of the work is
student effectively in the contributions are limited, so the
participation in elaboration of the fairly effective in achievement of the 10
the forum requested the creation of the objectives is
product. final product. inadequate.
Until 10 points Until 5 points Until 0 points
Use of criterion The objectives of Although the
of Laplace, the work were subject matter is
Wald, etc. in real satisfactorily treated, the body of The document
situations that fulfilled, the the document does leaves unresolved
require decision- Criterions of not adequately the Criterions of
making Laplace, Wald, solve the situation, Laplace, Wald, etc.,
processes in the etc. are solved the conclusions are for which the 20
exercises 1 to 3 correctly and the not pertinent optimality decisions
in production analysis of their according to the are left
and results leads to results obtained by unanswered.
management an optimal the Criterions of
decision-making. Laplace, Wald, etc.
problems
Until 20 points Until 10 points Until 0 points
Use of criterion The document
The objectives of
Game theory in Although the theme leaves unresolved
real situations the work were
is treated in a graphical methods
that require fulfilled
partial way, the according to game
decision-making satisfactorily and value of the game theory, so that the
processes the analysis of 15
and its decisions are decisions and value
in the exercise 4 the results leads not defined of the game have
in production to an optimal
correctly. not been
and decision-making.
determined.
management
Until 15 points Until 8 points Until 0 points
problems
Use of criterion Although the theme
The objectives of
Mixed strategies is treated in a The paper leaves
the work were
in real situations partial way, the unresolved game
satisfactorily
that require value of the game, theory according to
fulfilled, the value
decision-making according to the mixed strategies, so
of the game and 15
processes in the mixed strategies did a correct decision is
the decisions
exercise 5 in not lead to a correct not obtained.
were correct.
production and decision making.
management Until 8 points Until 0 points
problems Until 15 points
 Performance Criteria for Collaborative Activity Score
Aspects
High rating Average rating Low rating
evaluated

Although the
The document document presents a
presents an basic structure, it
excellent lacks some elements The basic norms for
structure, all the of the requested the construction of
exercises are body or does not reports are
Structure of the solved according comply with the nonexistent like the
20
Report to the proposed norms for written Criterions applied to
methodology and works. Not all the themes of the
Criterions of the Exercises are solved theory of decisions.
theory of according to the
decisions. Criterions of the
course.

Until 20 points Until 10 points Until 0 points

The use of the Although the use of
The practical
practical the practical
environment of the
environment of environment in the
course has been no
the course is final report is
longer explored, for
Use of the excellent, the evident, the
that reason the
practical results and the solutions found by
evidence in the use 20
learning analysis of these the application lack
of the application to
environment are shown analysis and
solve the Exercises
correctly in the conclusions
raised has been
final work pertinent to efficient
limited.
presented. decision making.
Until 20 points Until 10 points Until 0 points
Final score 100