6)

Primeramente determinar la población

Po = poblacion del año 2002 y Pn = población final del año 12008
Determinar la tasa de crecimiento de la población:
Po = 215.500
Pn  Po1  tc 
tc  n
Pn
1 Pn = 226.800 n
Po

tc = 0.00855432 1) RESPUESTA
Po = 215,500.00 55.8
factor = 1.0085543246 45 lts /año PROYECC DEMANDA
PERIODO AÑO POBLACION DEMANDA OFERTA INSATISFECHA
-2 2000 211,860 11,821,780.23 7,239,935.35 4,581,844.88
-1 2001 213,672 11,922,907.58 9,231,416.70 2,691,490.88
0 2002 215,500 12,024,900.00 10,641,469.21 1,383,430.79
1 2003 217,343 12,127,764.90 11,770,692.71 357,072.18
2 2004 219,203 12,231,509.74 12,728,472.09 -496,962.35
3 2005 221,078 12,336,142.04 13,568,606.88 -1,232,464.84
4 2006 222,969 12,441,669.40 14,322,048.75 -1,880,379.34
5 2007 224,876 12,548,099.48 15,008,444.69 -2,460,345.20
6 2008 226,800 12,655,440.00 15,641,143.39 -2,985,703.39
7 2009 228,740 12,763,698.74 16,229,679.42 -3,465,980.67
8 2010 230,697 12,872,883.56 16,781,129.64 -3,908,246.07
9 2011 232,670 12,983,002.39 17,300,909.19 -4,317,906.81
10 2012 234,661 13,094,063.21 17,793,265.57 -4,699,202.37
11 2013 236,668 13,206,074.07 18,261,599.52 -5,055,525.45
12 2014 238,693 13,319,043.12 18,708,681.39 -5,389,638.27
13 2015 240,734 13,432,978.54 19,136,801.67 -5,703,823.13
RESOLUCION PRACTICA N° 1 2019
De acuerdo a la información de la produccion que es la Oferta, se identifica
que tiene una tendencia del tipo POTENCIAL, por lo tanto partimos de :
Y = a Xb
Para linealizar se aplica logaritmos: Log Y = Log a + b Log X

Entonces: Σ Log Y = n Log a + bΣ Log X

Σ Log X Log Y = Log a Σ Log X + b Σ(log X)2

Resolución:

Año Período OFERTA

X Y Log y Log X Log x Log Y (Log X)2
2000 1 8,200,120.00 6.9138202079 0 0 0
2001 2 8,420,240.00 6.9253244703 0.3010299957 2.0847303953 0.0906190583
2002 3 9,140,675.00 6.9609782677 0.4771212547 3.3212306852 0.2276446917
2003 4 11,028,564.00 7.0425189678 0.6020599913 4.2400189087 0.3624762332
2004 5 13,200,810.00 7.1206005803 0.6989700043 4.9770862185 0.488559067
2005 6 14,410,410.00 7.1586763374 0.7781512504 5.570532943 0.6055193685
2006 7 15,820,825.00 7.1992291267 0.84509804 6.0840544246 0.7141906972
2007 8 15,805,150.00 7.1987986219 0.903089987 6.5011629538 0.8155715246
2008 9 15,780,200.00 7.1981125032 0.9542425094 6.8687449383 0.9105787668
2009 10 15,100,050.00 7.1789783854 1 7.1789783854 1
Σ 70.8970374684 6.5597630329 46.8265398526 5.2151594072

Log b = 6.8597346884

a = 7239935.354406
Y= aX b
b = 0.350575253

RESPUESTA DE LA PROYECCION DE LA PRODUCCION

Año Período OFERTA (Y - Ye) (Y - Ye)2
X ESTIMADA Y
2000 1 7,239,935.35 8,200,120 960,184.65 921,954,553,635.17
2001 2 9,231,416.70 8,420,240 -811,176.70 658,007,641,719.55
2002 3 10,641,469.21 9,140,675 -1,500,794.21 2,252,383,272,875.03
2003 4 11,770,692.71 11,028,564 -742,128.71 550,755,027,804.26
2004 5 12,728,472.09 13,200,810 472,337.91 223,103,105,315.24
2005 6 13,568,606.88 14,410,410 841,803.12 708,632,498,718.44
2006 7 14,322,048.75 15,820,825 1,498,776.25 2,246,330,260,190.84
2007 8 15,008,444.69 15,805,150 796,705.31 634,739,354,245.21
2008 9 15,641,143.39 15,780,200 139,056.61 19,336,739,992.46
2009 10 16,229,679.42 15,100,050 -1,129,629.42 1,276,062,619,629.95
2010 11 16,781,129.64 9,491,305,074,126.14
2011 12 17,300,909.19 2) RESPUESTA
2012 13 17,793,265.57
2013 14 18,261,599.52 r2 = 0.8890987411 Coeficiente de determinación
2014 15 18,708,681.39
2015 16 19,136,801.67 0.9429203259 Grado de correlación
r=

Σ (Y - Ye)2
Es = n-2
Es = 1,089,225.93

R.- Significa que el 88,91% de la variación de Y en relación a su promedio es explicada. El 11,09% sin explicar
Existe una dependencia aproximadamente del 94.29% entre las variables del tiempo y la oferta.
Existe una desviación de la información histórica de la producción en aproximadamente (+-) 1089225.93 con
respecto a la curva de regresión
RANGO DE ERROR O BANDA DE ERROR
3) RESPUESTA
Año Período OFERTA
X ESTIMADA +z*Se -z*Se
2000 1 7,239,935.35 9,026,265.89 5,453,604.82
2001 2 9,231,416.70 11,017,747.23 7,445,086.17
2002 3 10,641,469.21 12,427,799.75 8,855,138.68
2003 4 11,770,692.71 13,557,023.24 9,984,362.18
2004 5 12,728,472.09 14,514,802.62 10,942,141.55
2005 6 13,568,606.88 15,354,937.41 11,782,276.35
2006 7 14,322,048.75 16,108,379.28 12,535,718.21
2007 8 15,008,444.69 16,794,775.22 13,222,114.16
2008 9 15,641,143.39 17,427,473.92 13,854,812.86
2009 10 16,229,679.42 18,016,009.95 14,443,348.89
2010 11 16,781,129.64 18,567,460.17 14,994,799.11
2011 12 17,300,909.19 19,087,239.73 15,514,578.66
2012 13 17,793,265.57 19,579,596.11 16,006,935.04
2013 14 18,261,599.52 20,047,930.05 16,475,268.99
2014 15 18,708,681.39 20,495,011.92 16,922,350.86
2015 16 19,136,801.67 20,923,132.20 17,350,471.14
 (Log Y)2
47.80090987
47.96011902
48.45521844
49.59707341
50.70295262
51.2466469
51.82890002
51.8227016
51.81282361
51.53773066
502.7650762

10.224856804

n(Σ Log X Log Y) - (Σ Log X) ( Σlog Y)

2 r2 = n{Σ (Log X)2}- (ΣLog X)2 n{Σ (LogY)2} - ( Σlog Y)2

11.500248883

e determinación